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Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time.

Pretty much on tap with what we have been discussing for a week now...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION WITH
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SCENARIO COMBINED WITH DIMINISHED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN FOR SEVERE
TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6/MONDAY.

EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE TSTMS MAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
PROBABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BE AS THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY VIA WESTERN STATES TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH SPECULATIONS ARE THAT CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK/EASTWARD PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL WESTERN STATES TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS DAY
7/TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY INCREASE ACROSS BROADER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO DAY 8/WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

..GUYER.. 04/30/2014

Here we go. May is upon us.

Is it just me venture or does the weather pattern this year seem very similar to 2011? After an unusually cold winter, we are seeing cold snaps taking us near freezing very late in the year, mid 90s at the beginning of May, after a late April tornado outbreak in Dixie Alley. Not saying this is a similar year because every year is different, but in the long range models do you see things getting crazy like they did in May 2011?

This winter was not unreasonably cold. As a matter of fact, I'd say it was mild.


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This winter was not unreasonably cold. As a matter of fact, I'd say it was mild.


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It was a cold winter, all right, with frequent below normal temps. Seldom did the temp get much above normal, so hardly every any thunderstorms, but at least very few lows set all time records and it never dropped below zero.

Courtesy NWS:

7688

It was a cold winter, all right, with frequent below normal temps. Seldom did the temp get much above normal, so hardly every any thunderstorms, but at least very few lows set all time records and it never dropped below zero.

Maybe it was a cold winter then but it sure as hell didn't seem like it as far as I'm concerned. I didn't have to wear my heavy coat but maybe 5 times this winter so TO ME it was a mild winter.


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All three local news stations are starting to hype severe weather in the middle of next week, likely Wednesday or Thursday.

All three local news stations are starting to hype severe weather in the middle of next week, likely Wednesday or Thursday.

Getting that hype train rolling early.....gotta keep those ratings up.

It was a cold winter, all right, with frequent below normal temps. Seldom did the temp get much above normal, so hardly every any thunderstorms, but at least very few lows set all time records and it never dropped below zero.I agree with OKCisOK4me, it seemed rather mild here. I know is was colder up north and we had a few cold snaps, but for the most part, it seemed pretty mild.

Did anybody else see the retarded new KOCO "5+5" 10 day forcast? I guess trying to compete with 9's 9 day

OKCisOK4me and Pluto, Obviously you do not work outside for a living. It was a very COLD winter.

Did anybody else see the retarded new KOCO "5+5" 10 day forcast? I guess trying to compete with 9's 9 day

Anything beyond a 5-day forecast isn't very accurate anyways so I think they should stick to that.

All three local news stations are starting to hype severe weather in the middle of next week, likely Wednesday or Thursday.

And we've been talking about it for how long now? LOL

And we've been talking about it for how long now? LOL

Has anything changed with recent runs? Is this still looking like a primarily western Oklahoma outbreak?

A quiet April in Oklahoma isn't all that uncommon, but we are likely to have at least one or two significant outbreaks in central/western Oklahoma between now and June 1st.

Quoting the NWS

"THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ENTER THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED. WHERE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT."

Mind if I ask what's up with the handle and Rommel avatar? And yes, I do understand that he was not your typical Nazi.

Mind if I ask what's up with the handle and Rommel avatar? And yes, I do understand that he was not your typical Nazi.

I think (s)he covered that in another thread. Without putting words in his fingers, if I had to venture a guess, it might be 1) a visual vehicle to sell the pun in his user name or 2) a brilliant but flawed character in history in whom (s)he is interested.

If it turns out to be a female, the pun would be even more...delicious, if you'll pardon the pun-within-a-pun. (Or to resurrect Freud, sometimes an avatar is just an avatar)

I agree with OKCisOK4me, it seemed rather mild here. I know is was colder up north and we had a few cold snaps, but for the most part, it seemed pretty mild.

But even though you and others were not able to sense it, the past winter without a doubt was definitely colder than average. How much colder than average? Statewide the temps were 3.1 degrees below normal and 19th coolest. Source: http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/climate/latest_monthly_summary

Also below average for temps in Oklahoma City and Tulsa ever since October to March 7: Oklahoma Weather Lab: Special Story: Below Average...Since October! (http://okwxlab.blogspot.com/2014/03/special-story-below-averagesince-october.html)

OKCisOK4me and Pluto, Obviously you do not work outside for a living. It was a very COLD winter.

I don't work outdoors, and one unpleasant sign I knew it was being a cold winter was looking at my gas bill to see I was certainly using more gas than winter 2013.

Oooooooo...19th coldest. We're not talking like opposite of one of the recently most hottest summers that was in the Top 5, right?

Sorry, I'm not going to count the "19th coldest winter" as a record breaker, lol.

Before you know it it's gonna be like March Madness with 68 winters!

For the mark, I work pretty darn close to outside (a big metal building) and my heating bill (electric) was nothing compared to recent winters in the last 5-7 years.


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Not a record breaker (who even said that?), but it was absolutely colder than normal. A bit windier than normal, too.

Edited to add: Didn't see Bunty's post above.

7698
7699

My words. Nonetheless regardless of recorded data, it was a mild winter IMHO.


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Looking ahead.

Today and tomorrow are beautiful. Tomorrow is a tad warm, but still pleasant.

Sunday into next week... We are going to be blasted with STRONG southern winds with mid 90s for highs. Very summer-like.


Thursday into Friday looks like rain chances go up. Models trying to find out where, but someone is going to get some heavy rain/storms. QPF spreading 3-4 inches over a good part of SC, and SE OK as of right now.

Not a record breaker (who even said that?), but it was absolutely colder than normal. A bit windier than normal, too.

Edited to add: Didn't see Bunty's post above.

7698
7699
I wonder if the wind made it feel particularly colder to some of us. And it just seemed like the periodic warm spells we're used to that perk us all up stayed away. And I honestly wasn't sure spring was ever going to show up. It held onto winter until the very end. I am not sure if it was all that much colder but it seemed relentless.

Mind if I ask what's up with the handle and Rommel avatar? And yes, I do understand that he was not your typical Nazi.

This is unrelated to weather but, he wasn't a nazi at all actually. He never joined the party. I just admire him as a military tactician, the same way I admire Napoleon, Alexander the great or Stonewall Jackson. I also like his general image
Rommel worked extremely well with the limited resources Germany and Italy had..compared with the vast, virtually limitless resources of the British empire and America.

Anyway, back to weather. Anon, is this looking like more of just widespread rain? Or by heavy rain you mean severe weather?

Anyway, back to weather. Anon, is this looking like more of just widespread rain? Or by heavy rain you mean severe weather?

It's Oklahoma. Anytime there is a chance of rain in the Spring it is usually going to carry the risk of severe weather.

Instability begins to build in Monday, but conditions aren't really favorable for much of anything then. Tuesday's setup looks potent if anything can form. We are looking at a strong cap (5.1) and a pretty high convective temp to break it at 99.6°F. LCLs are a tad high as well, but if more moisture can work in than forecast and the cap breaks - this sounding is pretty textbook...

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/096/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png
Wednesday is another day that looks to be loaded all except for a strong cap still. CIN is lower and cap is weaker than Tuesday.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_GFS_120_35.29,-97.43_skewt_SB.gif
Thursday has lower instability but a much weaker, and very breakable cap with a relatively supportive setup for severe weather.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_GFS_144_35.29,-97.43_skewt_SB.gif

That's all for right now as I'm completely dead tired.

SPC has added a 30% risk area for Central and Western OK for Thursday.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2014

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS /PRIMARILY THE GFS AND ECMWF/ HAVE
COME INTO SOMEWHAT CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF THE
WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AS IT EJECTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES WHICH
PERSIST -- PARTICULARLY FROM ROUGHLY DAY 6 ONWARD -- ARE EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED WITHIN MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS A RESULT OF THESE
FACTORS...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS LINGER WITH THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...ENOUGH SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
EXISTS THROUGH DAY 6 SUCH THAT A FORECAST OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WITH A REASONABLE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE CAN BE MADE. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH MIDWEEK /I.E. DAYS 4-5/...WHILE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE SPREADS NWD. THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING HOWEVER APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT -- GIVEN WARMTH OF THE EML ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE UVV -- TO SUPPORT
ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION.
INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITHIN A
WARM-ADVECTION ZONE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT -- I.E. ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SOME RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL MAY EXIST...RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AREAL
INCLUSION ATTM.

AS MODELS BRING THE UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE PLAINS DAY 6 /THU 5-8/
HOWEVER...MORE COMPLETELY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
HAVE SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PERMITTING DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NEWD ALLOWING A
TRAILING FRONTAL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
VICINITY...DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY. WITH THE GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
MODERATE CAPE LIKELY TO EXIST FROM ROUGHLY OK NEWD ACROSS KS/MO/IA
AND INTO IL AND SRN WI...IT APPEARS THAT INCLUSION OF A 30
PERCENT-EQUIVALENT RISK AREA CAN BE INTRODUCED ATTM WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

BEYOND DAY 6...DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 05/03/2014

Storm Outlook Discussion...

Next few days we have Summer. If you are like and hate it because 1) heat sucks and 2) you burst into flames in the sun - know you aren't alone hiding in the A/C this weekend. :)

Storm chances start to increase beginning Tuesday.

Tuesday
Instability and everything will be in place for any storm that could go severe and break the cap. The problem will be the thermonuclear cap that will be in place. NAM has it at a 6.0 and GFS at a 5.6 in intensity and really...if a cloud goes up I'll be shocked. Though depending on temps if someone pushes near 100, which will be the convective temp, that could be enough to pop an isolated storm with large hail or damaging winds

Wednesday
First real day for storm chances in Oklahoma. By Wednesday morning we are looking at the dryline establishing itself from a line generally running Blackwell-Enid-Weatherford-Altus per GFS or Alva-Elk City-Childress per Euro. So pretty close but a slight difference...so figure somewhere in the middle. Moisture return looks somewhat decent with dews into the upper 50s to lower 60s ahead of the dryline early and rising into the low 60s all ahead of the dryline through the day. Both models agree that the dryline will NOT make much eastward progress on Wednesday. Instead instability will build and the dryline will sharpen up quite a bit. GFS is still forecasting a stout cap through 7PM, however it breaks storms out between 7 and 10PM along the dryline over Central OK before it retreats. Euro fires early by early Afternoon from Alva down to the SW near Elk City. So depending on where storms actually do fire will determine who gets what. Overall chances would be favorable for any storm that does form to be severe. Main threats right now look like hail and wind with a marginal tornado threat. LCLs are little too elevated for my liking still to go any higher on tornado chances - at least for now. Right now I would say Marginal Slight Risk day depending on the cap roughly west of a line from Bartlesville to Okmulgee to Durant.

Thursday
Dryline retreats overnight into Thursday morning all the way back to the TX PH. It will then start marching east through the afternoon. GFS has it bulging slight south of I-45 but then takes the hole thing to about US 81 and then slams on the brakes until around midnight. Then we would be looking at the cold front overrunning it from North to South after midnight into early Friday. Okay so those are the boundaries, now for the - what could possible make this even more complicated to screw every forecast up because no...we can't allow just one easy textbook day that won't bust everyone's forecast. /rant

Going into Thursday morning GFS has a line of storms that will be increasing through the morning hows ahead of the retreating dryline...generally over Central and Western OK. It has intensities increase through the afternoon as this batch of storms push east into Eastern OK with some heavy rain and such there. Most of this is due to upper level energy and speed max approaching around midnight and moving overhead through the day. Then by 5-7PM it refires new storms along the dryline to the west of US 81. It then kills most convection off by midnight as the front pushes in - which I really don't buy. 9/10 when a cold front is overrunning a dryline we normally get something - a skinny line of storms or a large squall line - something, to fire when the two merge.

So we have early morning/daytime convection that may mess with the atmosphere. We have residual outflow boundaries that could remain into the afternoon. We have a strong dryline and cold front coming through. Instabilities don't look terrible in the recovered air mass. Parameters are favorable for all modes of severe weather. Moisture looks good and cloud bases should be low enough for surface based storms. So pretty much it will be a nice complicated forecast. Also if we get the overnight development going into Thursday that could toss a massive wrench into every forecast. Looking at the specific parameters/indices for severe weather. The Supercell Composite on Thursday will be highest east of the dryline and northwest of a line from Ardmore to Tulsa to Coffeyville KS. The Significant Tornado Parameter will low to moderate at 7PM from El Reno on to the north. By 10PM as the LLJ kicks in and bases lower, this area shifts a little east with moderate to high values over North Central OK down into the North Metro. Honestly though, this means little with the challenges early in the day that could completely change up the environment that day.

Things move out except in SE OK on Friday and Southern OK on Saturday.

Day 5 outlook has shifted the area on Thursday generally along/east of 35.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2014

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DAYS 4-5 /I.E. WED.-THU./...WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWING STRONG SIMILARITY THROUGH DAY 5 BUT
DIVERGING GRADUALLY THEREAFTER.

BOTH MODELS ADVANCE A LONGITUDINALLY EXTENSIVE WRN TROUGH TO ROUGHLY
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF DAY 4. WITH THE
EVOLVING PLAINS WARM SECTOR LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY CAPPED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OF DAY 4...MOST DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND THUS
SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

DAY 5....BOTH MODELS DEPICT A SHUNTING OF THE MOST ENERGETIC PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AS IT IMPINGES ON A FAIRLY STOUT
ERN U.S. RIDGE. AS SUCH...A SIMILAR NEWD ACCELERATION OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM ITS INITIAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE LK SUPERIOR VICINITY LATE IN THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED.
AS THIS OCCURS...EWD ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS A
THERMODYNAMICALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD
WARM-SECTOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

A COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF SEVERE RISK DAY 5
IS THAT BOTH MODELS ACTIVATE CONVECTION ACROSS TX LATE DAY 4 AND
INTO THE DAY 5 PERIOD. WHILE SOME SEVERE RISK WOULD EXIST WITH THIS
CONVECTION LATE DAY 4 ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX...GREATER
RISK IS EVIDENT DAY 5 ACROSS PARTS OF N CENTRAL TX AND INTO THE ERN
HALF OF OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...AS THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER DIURNALLY DESTABILIZES. HERE...SEVERE RISK -- INCLUDING SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL -- IS EXPECTED.

THIS SRN BATCH OF CONVECTION MAY HAVE EFFECTS ON AREAS FARTHER N --
I.E. INTO PARTS OF NERN OK/SERN KS AND THE OZARKS...BUT A SECOND
AREA OF LIKELY SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/NRN MO
AND INTO IA/SRN MN -- NEARER THE SURFACE LOW WHERE THE STRONGEST
FLOW ALOFT/MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WHILE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF SEVERE RISK MAY RESULT -- A NRN AND SRN
AREA -- ON LARGER RISK AREA WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM PENDING LATER
FORECAST DETAILS.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY NEWD INTO CANADA
DAY 6...LESSER SEVERE RISK IS PROGGED AND THUS NO RISK AREAS WILL BE
INCLUDED ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/04/2014

Getting that hype train rolling early.....gotta keep those ratings up.

It IS a sweeps month, after all...

Day 3 Slight Risk covers much of North Central, Central and SW OK on Wednesday for storms in the evening/overnight.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WYOMING/UTAH/NORTHERN ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LESS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXTEND FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ADDITIONALLY...FROM
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES...WHILE INCREASING IN COVERAGE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHERE SOME SEVERE RISK
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A STEADY EWD
ADVANCE WED...IMPINGING UPON THE PLAINS REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY
SHOULD BEGIN ADVANCING NEWD...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
CROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE ADVANCE OF THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD INTO TX...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
-- FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES VICINITY. HOWEVER...A WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD HINDER
APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES HOWEVER AND
MORE APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS TX...WHERE ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
RISK WILL INCREASE GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS -- AND
ISOLATED HAIL/WIND RISK -- SHOULD THEN SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS OK AND KS
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD -- AND MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY ELEVATED -- STORMS EXPECTED N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE IA/MN/WI VICINITY WHERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
RISK...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

Day 4 Risk continues generally US 81 and to the east.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEARS TO BE HIGH EARLY IN
THE PERIOD -- COINCIDENT WITH THE PERIOD OF GREATEST EXPECTED SEVERE
RISK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVANCE A STRONG SHORT-WAVE FEATURE --
THE LEAD IMPULSE WITHIN THE BROADER WRN U.S. TROUGH -- NEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DAY 4 /THU.
5-8/...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO DAY
5. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALSO PROGGED TO SHIFT STEADILY
NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 4...AND THEN ON
NWD ACROSS ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY THROUGH DAY 5...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 AND THE
MIDWEST DAY 5...WHILE ADVANCING MORE SLOWLY WITH SWD EXTENT INTO TX.
WITH AN OVERALL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER THE
U.S. AND A MORE STRUNG-OUT SW-NE FRONT INTO DAYS 5-6...SEVERE RISK
WOULD APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO LIKELY BE LESS SUBSTANTIAL BEYOND DAY
4.

FOR DAY 4 HOWEVER -- AS THE POTENT SHORT-WAVE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSS THE PLAINS...AN ENHANCED ZONE OF SEVERE RISK
REMAINS APPARENT. THOUGH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE
THE SCENARIO...AMPLE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SRN PLAINS VICINITY AS WELL AS WITHIN A
DRY SLOT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY
TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
MID-LEVEL SWLYS IN THE 50 TO 70 KT RANGE SPREADING ATOP THE WARM
SECTOR...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOTH ORGANIZED/BOWING BANDS OF
STORMS AS WELL AS UPDRAFT ROTATION. ATTM...GREATEST SEVERE RISKS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD/NEWD AND LESS
UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL...EXPECT LESSER SEVERE
RISK TO PREVAIL.

Just insane heat this early in the season. Potential effects of the developing El Nino aside, one has to expect the drought is going to make this one VERY long summer...

OKC smashed the old record of 93F yesterday with a high temp of 97F and up to 103F in NW OK, with just as hot (if not slightly hotter) conditions expected today. The last time OKC reached 95F prior to May 10th was in 1972. Sigh.

Wichita reached 102F yesterday just 20 days after getting 0.3" of snow. It was their earliest 100F+ day on record.

This is almost scary. Hopefully we get some good rain out of this Wednesday/Thursday system. Do you see a squall line developing or discreet supercells?

Wednesday looks like another tough severe wx forecasting day. Either some intense storms, or no storms.

Thursday looks like storms likely, but not as intense as it looks right now. Thursday will also depend heavily on what happens Wednesday night.


To build on the drought situation, as V mentioned earlier last week; we are basically at the point of needing a tropical system to catch us up. We went from above average and nose dived to way below over winter and thus far in spring. If I was in charge of the call, I would already have a lawn water usage ban in effect for all of OKC metro on city water.

Just insane heat this early in the season. Potential effects of the developing El Nino aside, one has to expect the drought is going to make this one VERY long summer...

OKC smashed the old record of 93F yesterday with a high temp of 97F and up to 103F in NW OK, with just as hot (if not slightly hotter) conditions expected today. The last time OKC reached 95F prior to May 10th was in 1972. Sigh.

Wichita reached 102F yesterday just 20 days after getting 0.3" of snow. It was their earliest 100F+ day on record.

It's supposed to get to at least 100 from southwest to north central Oklahoma today. Oklahoma City may be left out. It's forecast to get up to 99.

So should we be worried at all about the severe possibilities this Wednesday and Thursday? There doesn't seem to be the huge amount of hype going into this as there was for our last round which ended up being a bust for C OK but really bad for the Southeastern United States.

So should we be worried at all about the severe possibilities this Wednesday and Thursday? There doesn't seem to be the huge amount of hype going into this as there was for our last round which ended up being a bust for C OK but really bad for the Southeastern United States.

I think the intense lack of moisture combined with the expectation of a fairly strong cap mid-week makes it pretty hard to ring the severe bell very hard at this point, and so long as the models seem to be in even a broad sense of concurrence there wouldn't be much basis on which to put a bigger severe forecast out there, excepting for the obvious caveat about it being May in Oklahoma and anything can happen given all the right weather variables.

And of course I bid afternoons at work. Usually I bid mornings for the summer time. Ugh.

I'll do a more in-depth outlook tonight. Family is visiting so priority has been there. Sorry for my absence. :)

I'll do a more in-depth outlook tonight. Family is visiting so priority has been there. Sorry for my absence. :)

We all know family comes first - no apologies called for.

Very isolated risk today of storms developing along the new dryline is SW OK moving to the NE. This is going to be close to peak heating today and into this evening. Main threat if anything develops would be very large hail and damaging winds as the storms fall apart.

12Z HRRR shows storms west of I-35 by 7PM.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014050612/t5/1ref_t5sfc_f12.png

SPC picked up on the storm chances for today now. I'll start monitoring in the chat room later this afternoon. :)

...OK/TX...
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 2-3
HOURS PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVOLUTION VERY WELL...WITH WIDE
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS VALUES TO ITS EAST. NEVERTHELESS...A NARROW CORRIDOR MAY
SEE ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN THE STORMS AFTER DARK.

SPC picked up on the storm chances for today now. I'll start monitoring in the chat room later this afternoon. :)

...OK/TX...
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 2-3
HOURS PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVOLUTION VERY WELL...WITH WIDE
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS VALUES TO ITS EAST. NEVERTHELESS...A NARROW CORRIDOR MAY
SEE ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN THE STORMS AFTER DARK.

Venture, realizing we're still very early into May and the typically more turbulent part of our weather season, but isn't this early heat/strong cap/high-base thunderstorm notion (guess I can't really say its a "pattern" yet) a bit more like a mid-to-late summer scenario with the popcorn storms that can show up, throw a few angry rounds of hail, then disappear quickly?

Venture, realizing we're still very early into May and the typically more turbulent part of our weather season, but isn't this early heat/strong cap/high-base thunderstorm notion (guess I can't really say its a "pattern" yet) a bit more like a mid-to-late summer scenario with the popcorn storms that can show up, throw a few angry rounds of hail, then disappear quickly?

Yup. This is very much more of a late June/July type thing than early May. Take what we can get I suppose - rain wise that is.

Chat room day tomorrow! 30% hatched area from the Metro area to SW OK tomorrow.

...WRN AND CNTRL TX AND OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERN KS...

PERSISTENT SLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS KS/OK AND MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TX. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE MOIST AXIS...AND DIABATIC WARMING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEPER ASCENT
WITHIN APPROACHING UPPER JET EXIT REGION ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING AND
DRYLINE CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
FROM PARTS OF WRN/WCNTRL TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK INTO CNTRL KS. WIND
PROFILES WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AS THE UPPER JET EMERGES OVER
THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE INITIAL MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...LCLS WILL
DECREASE AS STORMS BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN MOIST
AXIS. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...A SMALL WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND STORMS BEGIN TO
MERGE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES.

Yup. This is very much more of a late June/July type thing than early May. Take what we can get I suppose - rain wise that is.

I have a recently blind dog and I've been trying to take her on walks, everyday, out in the fields to let her practice exploring with her other senses. The grass is so dry it feels like late July.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0504.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062239Z - 070045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL POSE A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH ABOUT 01-02Z.

DISCUSSION...22Z OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS PLACED THE DRYLINE FROM
TILLMAN COUNTY OK SWD INTO ERN SHACKELFORD...CALLAHAN AND COLEMAN
COUNTIES IN THE TX BIG COUNTRY. HERE...SMALL CBS ARE MOST VISIBLE
ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE DRYLINE AND INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY. LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AROUND 40 DEG
F JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
HIGH-BASED. STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS /ALTHOUGH LARGELY
CONCENTRATED IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE BUOYANCY PROFILE/ WILL
SUPPORT RISKS FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND FOR A FEW HOURS. STRENGTHENING
INHIBITION SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AROUND
SUNSET.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 05/06/2014

Severe weather outlook for Wednesday & Thursday...

For today are are looking at the dryline moving back through Western OK. 4km NAM have it running from Cherokee-Weatherford-Frederick. Ahead of the dryline looks like mid 60s dewpoints through NE, Central and parts of South Central OK. We saw a good amount of moisture return on Tuesday with dews in the low 60s through much of the late afternoon into the evening. We will have some upper level energy moving in by late afternoon/early evening. Storm motions appear to be NNE/NE at around 20-30 mph. So not bad for tracking purposes and also to get some rain over some areas. Instability looks to be in the high category with CAPE values at or above 3000 j/kg along I-44. Storm development appears to start between 5 and 7 pm along the dryline. Activity should remain through the overnight but modes of severe weather will vary. Early on looks like Hail/Wind then as the LLJ increases a slight tornado threat will creep in. Then we'll go back to a wind/hail threat.

Getting into Thursday I won't go into much since it is all dependent on Wednesday and overnight/early morning convection. Dryline will remain west and if we get sun and destabilize then more storms will fire for the afternoon.

So Wednesday...here is a sample forecast sounding for the OKC area from the 00Z NAM for 4PM Wednesday...

Winds aren't forecast to be very favorable for tornadoes, but as the LLJ kicks in we could see more backing to the SE that will improve things.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/024/SKT_NAM__Koun.png

Here are the SPC outlooks for the next 2 days.

Today/Weds Slight Risk with a 30% hatched hail risk area for Central to SW OK, 5% tornado risk, and 15% wind threat.

...MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL TX...WRN OK...S CNTRL KS...
STRONG HEATING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...INCREASING SHEAR
PROFILES AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS FROM WRN OK SWWD ACROSS TX TO THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL WITH THE
RESULT BEING LONG HODOGRAPHS AND SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. SOME HAIL COULD BE VERY LARGE. AFTER 00Z...THE DRYLINE WILL
BACK NWWD...AND ALTHOUGH SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING WILL
OCCUR...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD YIELD NOCTURNAL SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK.

Day 2 Outlook...

Greatest area appears to be North Central OK which is 30% hatched.


...UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO OK/TX...
EVOLVING SCENARIO ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. REMAINS QUITE
COMPLICATED/UNCERTAIN...WITH ONGOING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF MAIN FEATURES STILL QUITE EVIDENT.
THIS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD/ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
RISK AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD CONTINUE TO RENDER AREAL
DELINEATION OF RISK AREAS DIFFICULT.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE TX/OK VICINITY
WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. MAIN RISKS
ACROSS ERN OK/TX AND INTO AR/SRN MO WOULD BE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

MEANWHILE...ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY
SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY.
WHILE DEGREE OF AIRMASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION SW OF THE EARLIER
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN -- ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN/WI
VICINITY...IT APPEARS THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CENTRAL AND
ERN KS/NRN OK. WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS IS
ANTICIPATED. ASSUMING AMPLE DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE SURFACE
LOW INVOF THE MN AREA WHERE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED.
THOUGH LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SEVERE RISK SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.

Nice sharp dryline today.

SHould see a few cells fire off this afternoon. I am not sure if you should consider yourself lucky or not if you are under one. Hail and wind is primary threat. Heavy rainfall will be welcomed, though. We are at the point of 'we need rain no matter what'.


Not sure on timing yet, will have to see how the CU field develops and where the storms survive. Could make for an interesting hail scenario over downtown during the Thunder game with all those cars parked outside.

How widespread do you think damaging hail will be? Is the bigger threat today or tomorrow?

Also, David Payne is starting to sound the alarm for next Monday. None of the other local mets have picked up on it yet. Is that looking like a significant day?

There may not be any damaging hail. It really takes up close to golfball to start doing damage. But widespread doesn't look likely. This will be a few random cells along the dryline. Most likely supercells that die off with darkness.

Monday looks interesting right now, but I am pretty sure the local mets sound alarms for every chance of storms during Spring time in OK. Don't buy into it. Just monitor SPC and this general thread.

Southern Plains - Storm chances today look reasonable for once. No "cap-o-doom" that we normally have had to deal with today. There is a cap but should be overcome pretty easily - relatively speaking. HRRR is kicking things off around 3PM this afternoon in SW OK moving things to the NE towards the Metro by dinner time. Main risk continues to be large hail with an associated wind threat. Tornado threat today looks greatest (not great) from 5PM to probably 8PM. LCLs will be lowering, the LLJ will be kicking in pretty good, and forecast guidance suggests helicity values will be increasing markedly during this time period. It will be a situation if a storm is able to remain isolated, have great structure, and is able to move into an uncontaminated environment - it will be one to watch.


Live chat section is all setup and ready to go today with the streaming radar.

HRRR at 4PM...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014050712/t5/1ref_t5sfc_f09.png

This is something we'll need to watch. This is the max updraft helicity and you can see a couple storms might get some good spin to them.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014050712/t5/hlcy_t5sfc_f12.png

http://i.imgur.com/04UUiQ5.jpg

Tornado outlook for today

http://i.imgur.com/gFn7jId.jpg

Green means 2% chance, brown means 5% chance

Dryline is starting to fire in North Texas in Throckmorton County.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/7-1.png

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/N_Texas/current/N_Texas.vis.gif