It's a good thing if OKC gets bypassed by severe weather. The local mets say we will definitely see a good rain out of this and that's what we really need.

But we need the severe weather for a little excitement also. otherwise just rain gets a little boring.

It's a good thing if OKC gets bypassed by severe weather. The local mets say we will definitely see a good rain out of this and that's what we really need.

If NAM verifies, many locations are going to be lucky to get anything. If we have severe weather, then having it initiate in western OK is the best option. We need storms to fire. We are pretty much at the point, especially in western and NW OK, that any moisture regardless of what it comes with it needed now. The severe stuff isn't preferable, but we are running out of time before the dry season really kicks in.

So really quick on the 00Z NAM. Cap is essentially gone tomorrow afternoon but it wants to continue to be a pain with surface initialization. I have to think with this deep moisture finally getting into a place and good dryline out west, with upper level energy coming in, and a cold front coming down from the north...something has to give. Truth be told every forecast you get from anyone tonight is going to be based off of 1) previous experience and 2) a best guess / gut call.

Today we didn't have all the good ingredients in place and the dryline still bubbled up pretty good with a decent cap in place. Logic dictates that tomorrow should have better results in storm production. With that said, I'll wait for the next couple of models (GFS and Euro) to make a final call for tomorrow...even then, we might just be a nowcasting situation all day.

Sample forecast soundings...first is from Clinton and second is from Norman.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_NAM_024_35.39,-98.88_skewt_ML.gif

Norman:
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_NAM_024_35.19,-97.31_skewt_ML.gif

What about the cold front? The local meteorologists say our best shot at rain will be from cold front storms early Monday morning rather than whatever may fire off the dryline.

What about the cold front? The local meteorologists say our best shot at rain will be from cold front storms early Monday morning rather than whatever may fire off the dryline.

What about it? It is still planned to come through overnight Sunday into Monday.

Day 1 maintains slight risk for Central and Western OK. It pulled the MDT risk back into NC KS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF OK/TX SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE
DRYLINE...SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE BY 22-23Z. WHILE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE...AND A FEW OTHER
HIGH-RES MODELS...DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE
IT WOULD APPEAR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREATS WITH THIS
RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY.

GFS at 10PM...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_027.gif

Hoping for a lot of rain? Hope storms pop.

GFS has less than a 0.10". NAM maybe a half inch.

Euro pops storms on the dryline but doesn't sustain. It brings in some storms with the front, but amounts generally half inch or less.

Monday could be interesting depending on what happens later tonight into early Monday. This is updraft helicity at 4PM Monday...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/12f-1.png

Simulated Radar...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/12f-1a.png

HRRR at 4PM lights up the Panhandle and W/C KS. It'll be interesting to see if things build down a little further into Oklahoma.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/07/SGP/hrrrSGP_sfc_radar_014.gif

Like I said looks like we get the short end of the stick again. Sigh

Looking at the 13Z HRRR, storms firing in SW KS between 2-3 PM and will fill out to the NE. Secondary area of initiation then in Western North Texas between 5 and 6PM moving into SW OK by 7PM. Current surface has the dryline well back into the TX panhandle, but I would expect that to mix east fairly quickly to allow for storms to initiate by late this afternoon(http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsubh/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_subh_ jet:&runTime=2014051113&plotName=dewp15min_t52m&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5). Cold front should remove north of the state until 9PM when it enters NW OK.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/12f-2.png

Well alrighty then. Screw you Mother Nature.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

All the local stations have our rain chances at around 90% tomorrow. Has this changed?

All the local stations have our rain chances at around 90% tomorrow. Has this changed?

Well a 10 second shower would verify that forecast. :)

15Z RAP has made a big change and now ignites the whole dryline by 6PM.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/15/SGP/rapSGP_sfc_radar_008.gif

I just tweeted this since I finally went outside. Today is the first day this year, that I can remember, that we've had that really good smelling muggy Spring day. Not that it means anything, but the Gulf is open for a change.

HRRR trending to introduce more development - albeit isolated - along the dryline in W OK and W North TX.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsubh/for_web/hrrr_subh_jet/2014051115/t5/1ref15min_t5sfc_f0745.png

CU development now well underway along the dryline in SW KS into TX. Decent CU field in W OK as well mixed in with the gravity waves.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/goes-14/2014/05/11/17/goes14_1_2014_131_1745.gif

Well, I'm on a layover at the Denver airport headed home from Maui....it's snowing like crazy here. They are under a winter storm warning. 5-10 inches predicted. Crazy.

16Z HRRR is committing more to developing supercells in W OK. Left is sim radar reflectivity and right is updraft helicity (rotation in other words).

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/11f-6.png

Yup. You could swim out there.

The timing and placement may fire storms W OK this even. They die before reaching Central.

Then tomorrow they refire just east of I-35. So C 1/3 of OK gets skipped.

Yeah, we're not getting anything in the OKC area. I can feel it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yup. You could swim out there.

The timing and placement may fire storms W OK this even. They die before reaching Central.

Then tomorrow they refire just east of I-35. So C 1/3 of OK gets skipped.

Right now I'm thinking impacts on Central OK is going to really depend on how many get going and just how intense and established they can become.

It's a little more humid today, but nowhere near how it felt on the days of the outbreaks last year.

SW KS is going now. Visible Sat showing a couple towers starting to go.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0564.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111846Z - 112045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM W-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO THE NE TX PANHANDLE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE MAIN SVR THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL KS. A WW IS LIKELY BEFORE 21Z TO COVER
THESE THREATS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW W OF HYS. A
DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THIS LOW TO DDC THEN SWWD TOWARDS AMA. A
COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW...STRETCHING SWWD TO GUY IN
THE OK PANHANDLE AND THEN WWD INTO FAR NE NM. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE HAS QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AMIDST
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MODERATE TO STRONG SLY WINDS.

18Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEPLY MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LITTLE
CINH REMAINING. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE 12Z WHILE BACKING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINED
STEEP /GREATER THAN 8 DEG C PER KM/.

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE LIFT.
THIS LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND STRONG HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...LIKELY NEAR 21Z.

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. CONVECTIVE MODE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL KS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES NUMEROUS STORMS WITH INTERACTING
OUTFLOWS AND THE EWD PROGRESSING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FAVORING UPSCALE
GROWTH WITH A RESULTANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

Tornado Watch up for NW OK

TORNADO WATCH 143 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-083-095-097-105-113-119-145-
151-155-159-165-167-169-185-120300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0143.140511T1940Z-140512T0300Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BARTON CLARK
COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FORD HODGEMAN
KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN
MCPHERSON MEADE PAWNEE
PRATT RENO RICE
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
STAFFORD


OKC007-045-059-151-153-120300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0143.140511T1940Z-140512T0300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAVER ELLIS HARPER
WOODS WOODWARD

If and/when this makes it to the metro will it be after 10pm?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0143_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALINA
KANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 141 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0141.html)...WW 142 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0142.html)...

DISCUSSION...RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE DRYLINE
WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS INTO THIS EVENING
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL
INITIALLY. THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE OWING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...MEAD


Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Mod (40%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (20%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Low (10%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


High (70%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (60%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (90%)

If and/when this makes it to the metro will it be after 10pm?

A lot depends on if SW OK pops as well.

a lot depends on if sw ok pops as well.

ty!

Quick analysis...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/11f-7.png

Dryline is pushing east at a pretty good click. Area outlined for the southern section of the dryline is where we need to watch for new development next 2-3 hours.

TTFU!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Whole dryline is about to go in SE part of TX panhandle. Dryline bulging east and CU field boiling up like crazy.

Possibly look for TOR watch for SW OK soon.

EDIT: forgot sentence part

Western OK moisture just mixed out a bunch today. We'll see how this works out...

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png?1399842646353

Looks like we will have to wait for the cold front once again.

Looks like we will have to wait for the cold front once again.

Which even then the forecasts aren't extremely favorable for any decent rainfall. This drought is killing us.

There is a large wedge tornado about 45 minutes to 1 hour west of the Lincoln NE metro moving in that general direction..
Parameters in that area will stay high for a long tracked tornado!.... per the WCH

There is a large wedge tornado about 45 minutes to 1 hour west of the Lincoln NE metro moving in that general direction..
Parameters in that area will stay high for a long tracked tornado!.... per the WCH

It is embedded in the warm front. As long as it stays rooted it'll keep going.

Are we pretty much out of the rumble or is this stuff likely to creep in our direction?

Are we pretty much out of the rumble or is this stuff likely to creep in our direction?

The CU field in SW OK is trying. Nothing has been able to just break through yet.

Last chance is with the front where we should see something, but it very well could just be a quick shot of rain and that's it. Nothing that is going to soak in.

I give up on spring 2014, Looks like were just going to have to hope for a tropical storm from the gulf or El Nino fall rains.

Cell is finally trying to go over over Sayre in SW OK.

Cell is finally trying to go over over Sayre in SW OK.

Watching it. It really popped up fast.

Dryline is really wanting to go. Another echo in Harmon County.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/kfdr_20140512_0030.png

Updated image...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/kfdr_20140512_0039.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0572.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 120051Z - 120145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY STORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED ACROSS THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

DISCUSSION...0030Z VISIBLE SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH ANY MATURE STORMS...BUT WITH SOME RESIDUAL CAP IN
PLACE AND IMMINENT DIURNAL COOLING...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY CELLS
WILL MATURE IN THIS REGION. SIGNIFICANT HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUPERCELL...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GIVEN THE
HOT...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT.

DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2014

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/kfdr_20140512_0106.png

Severe Thunderstorm watch is being issued.

Watch counties...


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC009-011-039-043-055-057-065-075-093-129-149-120700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0146.140512T0120Z-140512T0700Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER
DEWEY GREER HARMON
JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR
ROGER MILLS WA****A

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0146_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 110 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 142 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0142.html)...WW 143 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0143.html)...WW
144 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0144.html)...WW 145 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0145.html)...

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG TWO DRYLINE
SEGMENTS INVOF WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AS FLOW BACKS TO SELY
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NWWD. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS WRN OK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (20%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (<2%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Low (10%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (30%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


Mod (60%)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0573.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...SWRN INTO CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 143 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0143.html)...

VALID 120130Z - 120300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM
SWRN INTO CNTRL KS...THOUGH A TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE LINEAR MODE MAY
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY TO THE
EAST OF WW 143.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SWRN
INTO CNTRL KS. A FEW TORNADOES WERE NOTED EARLIER IN SWRN KS...ALONG
WITH MANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND. WHILE T-TD SPREADS
HAVE NOT BEEN IDEAL FOR A SUSTAINED TORNADO THREAT...A COOLING AND
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL RESULT IN A WINDOW OF CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING
WITH ANY SUSTAINED DISCRETE CELLS. HOWEVER...A SURGING COLD FRONT IS
RESULTING IN LINEAR UPSCALE GROWTH ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THE
LINE...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF WW 143 WILL
MOVE INTO THE SRN PART OF THE WATCH ACROSS NWRN OK...WHERE THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY INTERCEPT THE DRYLINE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 143 BEFORE THE 03Z
EXPIRATION TIME...SO AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS.

..DEAN.. 05/12/2014

Warning for NW OK


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 840 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHATTUCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAY AND CATESBY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

Could form up with W OK convection and form up into a decent MCS.

Cold front seems to be crashing south a bit faster now. NW OK is probably going to get completely filled in here soon.

Big fire north of AMA. Cold front just went over it.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/11-1.png

Everything is going to start shifting to a more E to eventual ESE movement as the front is catching the storms in the NW.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
914 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT


* AT 914 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.


HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

For those interested, the chat is going and we'll be in there through the night if you want to drop in. Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

New Watch for NC OK coming. NW OK is going to the SVR watch.

New watch is massive...here are the OK counties.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSOKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT HARPER KAY
WOODS WOODWARD

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0147_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA
SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
FALLS CITY NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 142 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0142.html)...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0143.html). WATCH NUMBER
142 143 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1000 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW
144 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0144.html)...WW 145 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0145.html)...WW 146 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0146.html)...

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND A SURGING COLD FRONT ARE
BEGINNING TO TRANSITION THE STORM MODE FROM DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO
MORE LINEAR STORMS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT PRIMARY RISKS OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM...A TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH LINGERING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN CENTRAL KS
AND SW IA.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (20%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (5%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (40%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Low (20%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (60%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (50%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (80%)