I thought at 63 tornadoes, May 2013 was the third most violent, behind 2010 with 91 tornadoes and 1999 with 90?

But yeah this year has been quiet so far. I realize that doesn't mean anything. We could have a single outbreak drop 50+ tornadoes and then after that be finished for the season. Or this season could end like 2002 did - without a major outbreak.

I thought at 63 tornadoes, May 2013 was the third most violent, behind 2010 with 91 tornadoes and 1999 with 90?

But yeah this year has been quiet so far. I realize that doesn't mean anything. We could have a single outbreak drop 50+ tornadoes and then after that be finished for the season. Or this season could end like 2002 did - without a major outbreak.

nm

Last year things really didn't get going until the May 18-20th outbreak but the last two weeks of May were among the most violent in state history. From the language I've been hearing I am guess Sunday is expected to be that kind of day?

And what language is that? Are you honestly making this up for entertainment value?

At some point it is almost to where you are wanting to hear it is going to be a major outbreak to feed your paranoia.

LOL:Smiley093

Does this look like central OK's most significant setup so far yet this year? What's interesting is the local meteorologists aren't fully in agreement on it. KFOR just recently jumped on the hype train but prior to the noon weather cast they didn't even forecast this to be that significant.As humans its human nature to be the most scared of the things we least understand.

Knowledge is power and it can provide a degree of sanity.
It takes a life time of accumulating what we know, but what knowledge we seek and what we do with what we learn is up to the individual.
But its why some folks are rich and others poor.... in all ways of life.
Never let your emotions and fears control your lifes destiny!

Channel 5's Brad Sowder has a post on Channel 5's website saying Significant Severe Weather expected for Sunday.

KFOR TV CH 4 OKC indicates that there is a moderate risk on Sunday in north central OK, central OK and south central OK..
They indicated that storms should approach the OKC area by about 7 pm and they will include the risk of tornadoes.
That's easy for them to say. They have a very large broadcasting area.

If we are set to get a crazy mad tornado day, or the models are leaning in that direction, I am completely confident that our forum guys will bring that to our attention. And even if things unexpectedly but suddenly went to hell in a handbasket, I am still confident that if we check here (or anywhere else) they'll make sure we know it is tornado risky day.

I think the only concern I have in terms of tornadoes would be if a small one slipped through in a rain wrapped system that spotters didn't see and it didn't make much of a mark on radar/software. But even if it did, chances are that wouldn't be life threatening if I was staying inside and away from the storm.

I suspect most people who get hurt by tornadoes either aren't staying alert to dangerous weather or, if they are, they don't take prudent steps to protect themselves. You can't stop property damage other than putting up your car and maybe lawn furniture. Shut drapes and curtains against wind and hail and call it good. But beyond that, all you really need to concern yourself with is protecting your life. Most of us are very small targets.

That's easy for them to say. They have a very large broadcasting area.

This includes the OKC Metro and surrounding areas!!

Mike Morgan's latest 7-day shows only a 10% chance for Sunday. This is interesting how some people are predicting the storm of doom and others, even those who usually hype, aren't concerned.

The Weather Service just released a youtube video suggesting that there will be a chance for tornadoes in Central Oklahoma between 7 p.m. and Midnight Sunday.

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman · 3h
Sunday is Mother's Day. Every mom needs a weather radio! Great gift idea. But buy flowers, too. pic.twitter.com/UmEMnNHNGk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYtThYcszZA

Hail, wind, and obviously heavy rain. Tornado is low, but not zero like any severe storm. Norman is probably far enough south to not warrant any panic, just keep radar app on tap to check out in the afternoon.

Hi Anon, Soonerguru was asking about Saturday. Your response above I think, was really about Sunday? They keep saying the chance tomorrow (Saturday) is very low.

Thank you guys, as always.

Looking at the 18Z models...

Tomorrow looks like a crap shoot. We might get one or two supercells that pop from Central into Northern OK. Nothing widespread.

Sunday of course is the hyped day. We'll probably see parts of IA/MO/KS/NE get upgraded in the Day 2 outlook that comes out after midnight today. Maybe...Maybe...Oklahoma as well. Here is a look at the Supercell Composite numbers for Sunday. GFS is first and NAM is second. Note NAM is about 3 hours later in peaking with this specific index.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_054.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/SGP/namSGP_con_scp_057.gif

4km NAM from the 18Z run showing max updraft helicity in storms around 10PM Sunday. NAM is running slower than what other forecasts are suggesting, so keep that in mind.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/11f-1.png

12Z Euro model run...3hr precip forecast ending 7PM (so storms between 4 and 7pm) Saturday...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/11f-2.png

Euro forecast for Sunday at 7PM...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/11f-3.png

Mike Morgan's latest 7-day shows only a 10% chance for Sunday. This is interesting how some people are predicting the storm of doom and others, even those who usually hype, aren't concerned.

And tomorrow him or one of his people will go to the other extreme and say there is 100% chance of severe weather Sunday.

Also, who exactly is saying "Storm of doom"? You really need to learn how to put these forecasts in perspective especially when some chasers are getting a little bit more exciting then they normally do because its been an extremely boring season for them so far.

So the new 00Z NAM for tomorrow doesn't come across as very concerning for tomorrow. Granted I haven't been a big fan of it these last few events as it has generally been garbage. Still feel we get one or two to pop tomorrow that could be troublesome for someone.

For Sunday, NAM wants a late show - because having storms in the daylight is taboo now. A couple snap shots from the model tonight. DO NOT READ A LOT INTO THIS...bchris.

These are technically 1AM Monday...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_sfc_prec_054.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_NAM_054_35.29,-97.31_skewt_ML.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_con_stp_054.gif

Well... clearly there is a bullseye right on us. OMG!!!!!!

:)

Hype?

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman · 15m
Severe weather still appears likely Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night, especially along and west of I-35 #okwx #texomawx

GFS maintain an elevated situation for Sunday. Conditions just look very good for severe weather and perhaps some higher end severe weather. GFS also pops precip much earlier than NAM getting W OK going by mid afternoon. I would really keep an eye on the NW quarter of OK which is going to be near the triple point. Things could really get cranking in that area. I'm not sure we'll see a Day 2 moderate cover any part of Oklahoma, but I wouldn't be shocked if NW OK gets into the MDT area by the first Day 1.

GFS maintain an elevated situation for Sunday. Conditions just look very good for severe weather and perhaps some higher end severe weather. GFS also pops precip much earlier than NAM getting W OK going by mid afternoon. I would really keep an eye on the NW quarter of OK which is going to be near the triple point. Things could really get cranking in that area. I'm not sure we'll see a Day 2 moderate cover any part of Oklahoma, but I wouldn't be shocked if NW OK gets into the MDT area by the first Day 1.

Looks like some other mets are picking up on the same theme, Ven.....esp. re NC/NW OK. Makes it tough to plan Mom's day stuff! time-wise! :)

Wording here makes me a little uneasy as its on the rather intense side, so I caveat my having posted it as merely someone echoing a notion of severe weather risks for Sunday in a similar area...

Mike Smith Enterprises Blog: Potential Tornado Situation For Mother's Day (http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2014/05/potential-tornado-situation-for-mothers.html?spref=tw)

Yeah I'll get more in depth after the Euro comes in tonight. We'll also have the new SPC outlooks to play with then too. Needless to say, chatroom weekend for sure.

Looks like some other mets are picking up on the same theme, Ven.....esp. re NC/NW OK. Makes it tough to plan Mom's day stuff! time-wise! :)

Wording here makes me a little uneasy as its on the rather intense side, so I caveat my having posted it as merely someone echoing a notion of severe weather risks for Sunday in a similar area...

Mike Smith Enterprises Blog: Potential Tornado Situation For Mother's Day (http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2014/05/potential-tornado-situation-for-mothers.html?spref=tw)

And oddly enough, Mike Morgan seems to think the dryline won't fire and less severe storms will fire when the cold front colds through.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0546.gif+

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE/E CENTRAL OK INTO NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100452Z - 100615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FROM SE OK
INTO NW AR...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
REMAINS INVOF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM SE OK INTO NW AR...WHICH IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL BE
BRUSHED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA INCREASE. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. STILL..BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ARE IN QUESTION...AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT.

..THOMPSON.. 05/10/2014

Slight Risk Today...covers an area generally along and northwest of I-44 and east of a line from Cherokee in NW OK to Hobart in SW OK.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD
INTO WRN OK...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...MID MS VALLEY TO WRN OKLAHOMA...

30-60M 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY SATURDAY AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER
LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS KS/MO TO A POSITION NEAR I-70 BY
11/00Z. INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO INITIALLY ESTABLISH ITSELF FROM SWRN
OK...NEWD INTO NERN KS BEFORE LATE DAY PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF
THE CNTRL ROCKIES RESULTS IN FLOW BACKING ACROSS KS AND THE DRYLINE
RETREATING WWD.

IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IT APPEARS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BOTH
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALONG WARM FRONT. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEAK
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF EJECTING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. TSTMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 21Z ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WHEN READINGS BREACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS MO
AND THIS SHOULD PROVE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINING POTENTIALLY
ORGANIZED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS
REGION EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH SBCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. AS LLJ INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION BELT...THUS A
FEW SEVERE TSTMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FARTHER SW...STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALLOW SFC
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AND ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS
THIS REGION.

..DARROW/DIAL.. 05/10/2014

And oddly enough, Mike Morgan seems to think the dryline won't fire and less severe storms will fire when the cold front colds through.

This is what is weird. Mike Morgan is the man who never seems to pass up an opportunity to hype, yet he doesn't seem to be very concerned about Sunday.

New Day 2

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR PROBABLE BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM IOWA TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN
ROCKIES. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE...A
CYCLONE WILL DIURNALLY DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A
DRYLINE MIXING TOWARDS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER S/SWWD
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE
ACCELERATION OF A S/SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS. MODEST CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A PORTION OF THIS
FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN NIGHT.

....UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS...
CONSIDERED A MODERATE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF KS TO IA WHERE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A STRONG COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. BUT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO FRONTAL
PLACEMENT...DEEP-LAYER FLOW GENERALLY PARALLELING THE FRONT AND
EFFECTS OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE THIS OUTLOOK.

STRENGTHENING SWLYS AT 700 MB WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING EML PLUME
AND ATTENDANT CAPPING INVERSION EARLY SUN...WITH INCREASINGLY RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AMIDST POLEWARD ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF.
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM AT LEAST THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD...YIELDING A BROAD STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE.

LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE
RETURN/CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD AID IN REGENERATIVE CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED STORMS SUN MORNING INTO AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER
MO TO UPPER MS VALLEY. HOW EXACTLY THIS CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM PARTS OF IA TO IL. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...HODOGRAPHS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THIS
W/E-ORIENTED BOUNDARY WOULD BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THIS SUGGESTS A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY
DEVELOP IN IA.

THE ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT
PROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS IN NEB/KS. EVEN SO...STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL YIELD INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNDERCUTTING
BY THE FRONT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN KS WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY. WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS
GENERALLY PARALLELING THE FRONT...CLUSTER/LINEAR MODES SHOULD BECOME
DOMINANT AS CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO ZIPPER S/SWWD ALONG THE FRONT.
SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...
INTENSE SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE LEE CYCLONE/DRYLINE INTERSECTION SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY
LARGE INITIALLY...CROSS-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY. VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY
FORMING AMIDST MODERATELY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS. SPREADS WILL LOWER DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS A SLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS...LIKELY MAXIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME INVOF WRN OK. GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD OCCUR SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT IMPINGES ON THE STILL STRONGLY
BUOYANT AIR MASS...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS.

..GRAMS.. 05/10/2014

Euro continues to develop storms today from NE to Central OK.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/10f-1.png

On Sunday it ignites the whole dryline, though placement of it is pretty far west and the models really aren't agreeing on this.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/11f-4.png

So Sunday is basically another day of tornadoes possible when the storms fire up out west and by the time it gets to the metro looking at mainly wind and hail threat?

Looks to me like this is another in a series of very tricky scenarios where the timing has to be just so for a "big deal" or "big nothing" Kind of day I would expect makes mets like Ven et al pull their hair out.

Seems like I recall the first wave of "spring" weather like this had a similar character - tricky timing, tricky convergence of all the ingredients, big "hit or miss" potential. Realize it isn't a scientific observation by any means, but it almost seems a pattern established early in the season - if it starts out with tricky scenarios, they'll be tricky a lot of the season....

Dolly Parton forecast. Lots of on-air 'singing', but in the end, a big bust?

Looks to me like this is another in a series of very tricky scenarios where the timing has to be just so for a "big deal" or "big nothing" Kind of day I would expect makes mets like Ven et al pull their hair out.

Seems like I recall the first wave of "spring" weather like this had a similar character - tricky timing, tricky convergence of all the ingredients, big "hit or miss" potential. Realize it isn't a scientific observation by any means, but it almost seems a pattern established early in the season - if it starts out with tricky scenarios, they'll be tricky a lot of the season....

Pretty much. Looking at the 12Z NAM this morning it has almost no precip in OK for today and tomorrow doesn't get anything going along the dryline. It waits for the cold front to hit the state at 1AM on Monday before it starts to pop stuff. New GFS arrives in about an hour and new Euro this afternoon. We'll see how those compare.

When I see the weather geeks juggling so many variables that they recognize different scenarios, depending, I find myself more impressed than the ones who single out a likely scenario and push it. The hour to hour adjusting of the forecast, to me, is nothing short of evidence of brilliance. I might sound overly enthusiastic but there you go.

Yep, I'd much rather see a forecast that's evolving and changing as more data pulls in, the networks almost seem to come to a decision early in the day on a specific scenario and will try and push it for the entire day.

Well GFS didn't really help matters. LOL

For today it does have one isolated storm in NC OK by mid afternoon moving that up into KS. For tomorrow it has activity up around the KS border and then an isolated cell in SW OK, but then really fails to get anything substantial going until late Monday in SE OK. I don't really buy the solution for tomorrow, but we'll see what the Euro says this afternoon.

After this season I think I'll be completely bald after trying to figure these forecasts out.

Slight Risk for today has been pulled down for much of Oklahoma - only a sliver of far Northern OK is still included.

Yea the trend is definitely towards a late Sunday night event.

Daytime storms in OK are a thing of the past.

Yea the trend is definitely towards a late Sunday night event.

Daytime storms in OK are a thing of the past.
I don't like nighttime storms.

Day 2 maintains Slight Risk for Oklahoma, but as expected went to Moderate just north of us.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IA...ERN
NEB...NW MO AND KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS....MID-MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED TO REMOVE SECOND HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH MANY TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY AS DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MID MO VALLEY
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN UNDISTURBED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT FROM IA EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SE NEB AND
CNTRL KS. DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
MANY TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/MON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM
DES MOINES IA SWWD TO TOPEKA KS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES
COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS FORECASTING MLCAPE IN
THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. IN
ADDITION...LONG LOOPED HODOGRAPHS RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES OF 350 TO 500 M2/S2 SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. SEVERAL STRONG OR LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RAPIDLY BECOMES FOCUSED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.

UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST CONCERNING HOW THE EVENT WILL UNFOLD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING STORM MODE. THE
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG ROTATION WITH
SUPERCELLS BUT THE STORMS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE
INTO LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LINEAR FORCING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
IA...SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME REMAINING DISCRETE. THE
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR STRONG
TORNADOES AT DES MOINES IA AT 00Z/MON SUGGESTING THE WARM FRONT MAY
HAVE THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
CONSOLIDATES DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONSOLIDATES.

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A VERY MOIST WARM
SECTOR EXTENDING EWD FROM A DRYLINE IN FAR WRN OK AND NW TX. AS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM CLINTON OK SWWD TO WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 3500
J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 35 KT WITH
850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREAT THAN 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT IN SPITE
OF THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING. A FEW TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

New 12Z Euro...the stubborn one.

Euro continues to hint at isolated development this evening across the central 1/3rd of OK from KS to TX. At this hour some cumulus is trying to develop in NC OK and also over extreme SW along the dryline.

For tomorrow it maintains popping the dryline between 4 and 7PM. It then knocks that activity off after midnight and refires the cold front around 4AM and brings in storms around Noon Monday for the Metro.

Oh these things are giving me a headache.

Coverage plan for tonight...I'll put the radar up in case something pops, but I probably won't be in the chat much.

Tomorrow going to start coverage early afternoon for those that aren't busy. I'll probably start by looking in on IA/MO/KS - especially Iowa - as they could have a big outbreak up there. Once things get cranking in Oklahoma adjust coverage south.

Looks like we get ripped off again with our storms here in Oklahoma particularly central Oklahoma!!

Some CU trying on the dryline today.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/goes-14/2014/05/10/19/goes14_1_2014_130_1934.gif

It appears the Vance AFB radar is down, so the stream will be on the Wichita radar.

Storms are development now from SE of Wichita south to near Medford in Grant County.

Was just about to come and post about that. CU field is actually becoming pretty healthy. We may see these break through in the next couple hours.

CU field in Major, Custer and Dewey counties is really looking interesting now. Newest HRRR is also picking up on development now further south on the dryline into this area. Quite possible we might be looking at development actually taking place now that everyone has backed off of it. LOL

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/18/SGP/hrrrSGP_sfc_radar_004.gif

No cap-o-doom in place?

No cap-o-doom in place?

It is still keeping a lid on things from going crazy, but definitely seems a few storms will bust through.

Cell trying to go up now in that CU field in Major County, SW of Fairview.

In regards to the cap, is it basically once these storms are able to start popping the cap breaks and it's easier for storms to continue building? I may be completely wrong as I'm still learning.

In regards to the cap, is it basically once these storms are able to start popping the cap breaks and it's easier for storms to continue building? I may be completely wrong as I'm still learning.

That usually what happens. When you watch it sometimes you'll see one go up and then fall. The a new one will try and get it a little further and then die. It can go on for quite some time or you can have one that breaks through faster. Now as we get into after dark we usually see inhibition increase and caps strengthen, so it gets more difficult.

Right now we have a cell right near Fairview. It made a good attempt but hit the cap and is falling back down now. There is a lot of CU increasing in that area so chances are another cell will make a run at it.

I like how the most important OK radar today is down...

Better today than tomorrow.


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Last shot of storms today in Woods and Alfalfa counties right now trying to go up. Further south on the dryline CU are starting to die out. On notable thing is that moisture return from the gulf is well into SE OK now.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Interesting about the moisture return from the Gulf. That does nothing but give a little bump to storm chances in W OK tomorrow, right?

Interesting about the moisture return from the Gulf. That does nothing but give a little bump to storm chances in W OK tomorrow, right?

Yup.

Here is the latest HRRR. It apparently didn't get the memo about the cap. :)

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/21/SGP/hrrrSGP_sfc_radar_001.gif

Vance radar is back. So we are good for tomorrow.

18Z models... NAM has nothing for a lot of people tomorrow - even tones down the stuff up in the moderate risk to just cold front storms. GFS keeps with the isolated to scattered storms in the afternoon/evening.

This is good to see though the day before any storms - moisture coming back...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/toralley/contour/TA.fronts.20140510.23.gif

Looks like we get ripped off again with our storms here in Oklahoma particularly central Oklahoma!!

What? Oklahoma City actually gets bypassed by the weather sometimes?

It's a good thing if OKC gets bypassed by severe weather. The local mets say we will definitely see a good rain out of this and that's what we really need.