So what are we looking like for today?

I look pretty good. I'm having a fabulous hair day.

For today in eastern Oklahoma (including Tulsa) and western Arkansas

https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/464393027855740928/photo/1

all i know is that the drive back to edmond after the thunder game last night was one of the most intense drives i've ever had. hail, flooding, winds...

Back edge of these clouds are coming into Canadian county now. If we get cleared out fully here by around 11am. Could be enough heating of the recently rained on ground that we become decently unstable.

Dryline/Cool front already advancing in far NW OK this morning, so the timing may be off today. I would say the further north you are, the better chance of storms this afternoon. Would love to get another solid line, the rain we get from these is our only hope this summer.


SPC has highlighted the Day 4-5 timeframe in their outlook. Right now, it does look significant.

The hype of "tornado" was hardly spot-on. The other two were stressing how this is not a tornado event. Damon even said, "It's just not that type of situation." David never veered from no tornado threat. The National Weather Service didn't think he was spot-on either, if there was a tornado in any part of the metro area - they would have issued a tornado warning.

I was actually driving on I-44 right at 89th when this was going on. (Basically right in the area he said a tornado possibly was) I can confirm the power flashes, and extremely strong wind. It was actually kind of scary -- glad he was on the radio, understood exactly what he was saying. I'm not a fan of his style at all, but in the moments I needed information I got exactly what I needed listening to his broadcast.

Based on evidence on the ground (power flashes in the same area), and evidence on the radar (the wind shear) -- he made the right call. Better safe than sorry. I rather him say there is the possibility of a tornado and there not be one, than him to completely dismiss it, and people be caught off guard even on an F-0.

I look pretty good. I'm having a fabulous hair day.
Me too! (It helps that my hair is essentially a buzz cut.)

Me too! (It helps that my hair is essentially a buzz cut.)

Good day, bad day, I have a massive long hair "fro" that makes hair stylists gasp with joy or fear, depending on their level of confidence.

glad he was on the radio, understood exactly what he was saying. I'm not a fan of his style at all, but in the moments I needed information I got exactly what I needed listening to his broadcast.


this. as far as i could tell, ch4 was the only station simulcasting on the radio, and driving home after the thunder game, i needed more info than a radar screen or text message warning could give me.

I was listening to him because they had a spotter in the area where I live. I also thought it was helpful and he made it clear, throughout, that if there was a tornado, it was a very small one. Does anyone know if he panicked anyone in the area he said it was going through?

I was amazed that other than power blinks and losing the television, once, we kept power. There were some big winds coming through. No particular tree damage, either.

Ya, I agree - it certainly looked scary for a few minutes. A few facebook friends are reporting debris and downed limbs, so there was certainly reason for concern. I think overall Morgan was pretty accurate.

I watched him last night because my DirecTV was out and my "over the air" digital signal was not allowing me to watch Damon Lane and I can't stand David Payne. I thought Morgan was very clear and fair in saying that it "could" be a tornado, showed why, and explained that it could also just be straight-line winds. He also made clear that the biggest threat even if it was a tornado would be windows being blown out, downed limbs, and a few missing shingles. Timmer, another guy whom I'm not crazy about, was clear when saying it was a wall cloud whether or not it was rotating. He did report the power flashes, but that's what spotters should do. Let's not forget that the storm did produce at least one tornado down in the Wichita Mountains, so it's not hard to imagine it spawning another F0-F1 type tornado.

I've been harsh on Morgan in the past, but I thought his coverage was accurate and fair, and he didn't try to "hype it up," he just reported the conditions and what he saw on radar.

Short term models hinting at some isolated development late this afternoon in SW OK and also North Central OK. Looks like we will have full sun now for the rest of the day, so we'll see how this plays out.

Slight risk has been modified to cover the area generally along and west of I-44.

...EASTERN KS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OK...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF KS/OK AND NORTH TX...STABILIZING THE AIR MASS AND
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER EASTERN
KS AND WESTERN OK TODAY YIELDING A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE CAPE AND
ONLY WEAK CAP. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE. THOSE
STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
BE RATHER WEAK. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN MO DURING THE EVENING.

Maybe I was too harsh on Mike Morgan. I honestly thought it was all hype based on what the others were saying. But, I very well could be wrong. Thanks for the posts.

The NWS has moved the area of highest risk to the metro and areas west of it.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image6.jpg

More rain would be great. Got a good soaker in OKC last night.

More rain would be great. Got a good soaker in OKC last night.

Yeah it was decent...

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.96hr.png

Now if NW OK could just get something.

The NWS has moved the area of highest risk to the metro and areas west of it.

Highest risk is probably a bit strong. I like their use of "Most likely" when describing it. We are talking an area of like 10-20% surrounding a zone of 30-40% probabilities. Short term models really aren't kicking out much at all though, but we'll see what this sun can do.

GOES-14 is operating in rapid scan mode over the central US today.

GOES-14 SRSOR Imagery -- SSEC (http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/)

GOES-14 is operating in rapid scan mode over the central US today.

GOES-14 SRSOR Imagery -- SSEC (http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/)

Nice find. :)

Highest risk is probably a bit strong. I like their use of "Most likely" when describing it. We are talking an area of like 10-20% surrounding a zone of 30-40% probabilities. Short term models really aren't kicking out much at all though, but we'll see what this sun can do.

Off-topic, but amazing. Isn't it strange to really think about the sun? We're waiting here in Oklahoma City, USA, planet Earth, to see if we'll get storms based on our cloud cover shielding some of the fire from this burning star almost 100 million miles away. It's there everyday, but to think about what it is, it's worth stopping to think about for a minute every now and then - and just marvel.

Off-topic, but amazing. Isn't it strange to really think about the sun? We're waiting here in Oklahoma City, USA, planet Earth, to see if we'll get storms based on our cloud cover shielding some of the fire from this burning star almost 100 million miles away. It's there everyday, but to think about what it is, it's worth stopping to think a minute every now and then - and just marvel.

Astronomy is fascinating and it is a shame there isn't more education on it in grade schools.

At night during a full moon, I suggest you do the same since you can actually stare at it. Think about how this massive sphere is rotating at the same speed as Earth and is also orbiting Earth.

Highest risk is probably a bit strong. I like their use of "Most likely" when describing it. We are talking an area of like 10-20% surrounding a zone of 30-40% probabilities. Short term models really aren't kicking out much at all though, but we'll see what this sun can do.

Pretty cloudy up here on NW side

Yeah I was pretty harsh on Mike Morgan last night, I'll blame it on it being 1 in the morning. In all fairness the couple times I flipped channels he was the only one still consistently on the air and advising people. I still have a bad taste in my mouth from some of his calls last year so I guess I'll always be a bit hesitant to trust him.

Dallas tx-
339 pm cdt thu may 8 2014

...a tornado warning remains in effect until 415 pm cdt for
northeastern dallas county...

At 339 pm cdt...national weather service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This tornado was
located 6 miles southwest of garland...moving east at 40 mph.

The tornado will be near...
Garland and sunnyvale around 345 pm cdt...
Rowlett and sachse around 350 pm cdt...

Off-topic, but amazing. Isn't it strange to really think about the sun? We're waiting here in Oklahoma City, USA, planet Earth, to see if we'll get storms based on our cloud cover shielding some of the fire from this burning star almost 100 million miles away. It's there everyday, but to think about what it is, it's worth stopping to think about for a minute every now and then - and just marvel.

No, it's puff puff pass...


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The velocity couplet was right over my brother's house in Dallas when the warning was issued. Watching TV TOR coverage in DFW is always frustrating.


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CU field really bubbling now across OK.

Northern sides about to go up right now, struggling as it trails off to the SW. But Last hour shows CU building even into far W/SW OK along dryline.

The velocity couplet was right over my brother's house in Dallas when the warning was issued. Watching TV TOR coverage in DFW is always frustrating.


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You are telling me (ughh!)

In a meeting and had no idea this was going on. No sirens, no emails, someone just happen to have a mobile alert on their phone. Fortunately it was in NE Dallas County whereas I am in Addison. It looks like there is quite a bit of damage and flooding. Really miss OK weathermen in situations like this.

Here's a question - I haven't checked the weather (came here, first) but my blind dog is on full alert and she hates storms. Anything starting to pop?

Anything going up yet for us? We had cumulus clouds most of the day, which seems to be the case on outbreak days but now it appears to be all clear. What time do you think the dryline will fire storms that couple possibly affect OKC?

CU still struggling. CAP is too strong down here still.

NC OK looks like it could go any minute. But still has not.

Storm firing just north of the border into KS along the same boundary.


As it sits right now, I would bet on no storms firing for main body of OK this eve.


EDIT: Just after posting, last scan shows storm going up SW of Ponca City. These will try and back build to the SW as the late afternoon progresses.

Well, maybe Pearly was just nervous about an earthquake or something. Around here, it could be anything. :)

Astronomy is fascinating and it is a shame there isn't more education on it in grade schools.

At night during a full moon, I suggest you do the same since you can actually stare at it. Think about how this massive sphere is rotating at the same speed as Earth and is also orbiting Earth.

And if 7th grade science memory serves, the moon rotates at just the right speed in conjunction with its revolution around the earth to where we always see the SAME SIDE of the moon.

My brother got to his home in Dallas. Fortunately, there were only some small tree branches down. He has power, but there is evidence it was out for a period. Love Field is about 2 miles northwest and they reported a measured wind of 70 MPH at one time. The more significant damage appears to be in the community of Highland Park to the immediate east and northeast of his house.

I have been down there several times during tornado warnings and go absolutely crazy every time trying to get a handle on things as I am watching the TV coverage. I can't stand to watch the guys around here because of the way over the top exaggeration and I can't stand to watch the folks in DFW because they come across as more clueless than I am. I'm thankful for RadarScope and for the folks who post on here.

Wow I have relatives in Highland Park....
There are tons of big old trees that could be a big hazard in that area.

Sadly, there are somewhat fewer as of today and at least one fewer BMW convertible.


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Nothing exciting out there tonight. Only notable thing are the bats woke up finally in Woods County. :)

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/8-1.png

How likely is something to fire after sunset?

Last night's storms kind of surprised me. Even though in the grand scheme of things they weren't really that severe, I had thought our severe window would be wrapping up around 10pm at the very latest. I am glad we got them though. The rain really helped, though we still need more. Lake Hefner didn't seem to benefit as much as I thought it would from last night.

Nothing exciting out there tonight. Only notable thing are the bats woke up finally in Woods County. :)

Those are bats? Holy crap

Those are bats? Holy crap

Happens every year. We should see them soon in SW OK as well.

Those are bats? Holy crap

I took my family to see the bat viewing at the Selman Bat Cave a few years ago. One of the coolest things we've ever done. Highly recommend. Great setting and a wonderful feeling when they come out to feed, passing just a few feet above your head.

Slight Risk today far SE OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

Slight Risk Saturday Central to NE OK

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

..LOWER MO VALLEY TO CNTRL OK...
POLEWARD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...YIELDING A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG.

NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED TO OVERLIE
THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...REFLECTING THE DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT. CONVERGENCE ALONG MOST OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS
WEAK WITH THE DRYLINE RETREATING WWD DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/ AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES /MAINLY IN MO/. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL...HAVE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK...BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE ON WHERE STORMS WILL FORM IS TOO LOW TO YET
WARRANT HIGHER INTENSITY PROBABILITIES.

Is Sunday/Monday setup still looking like it will be high-based?

Sunday's Outlook...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS PROBABLE BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN
ROCKIES. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE...A
LEE CYCLONE WILL DIURNALLY DEEPEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TOWARDS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER S/SWWD
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE ACCELERATION OF A
S/SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.

...MID-MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
PERVASIVE AND STRENGTHENING SWLYS AT 700 MB WILL RESULT IN AN
EXPANDING EML PLUME AND ATTENDANT CAPPING INVERSION EARLY SUN...WITH
INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GIVEN STRONG POLEWARD
ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD...YIELDING A
BROAD STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD BE DELIMITED BY EARLY SUN WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE E/NEWD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...BUT MORE PROBABLE
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SWRN EXTENT WHERE
GREATER INSOLATION OCCURS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY YIELD INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO SRN IA. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNDERCUTTING BY THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD CLUSTER AND EVENTUAL LINEAR
MODES WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS PERSISTING INTO SUN NIGHT. A
LARGE MCS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BROADLY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR.

FARTHER S...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN
/ESPECIALLY INVOF TRIPLE-POINT/ AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
REMOVE INHIBITION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS MAY NOT BE OVERLY
LARGE...CROSS-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY
LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN
EARLY EVENING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS LOWER. EWD EXTENT
OF OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN OWING TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN COLD FRONT EVOLUTION AND DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL WARM
SECTOR INHIBITION.

..GRAMS.. 05/09/2014

Just a heads up for the weekend. I'll be reporting to the real job for the weekend (working in the evenings) so there will be some differences in coverage this weekend. I'll have the radar stream going, but won't be able to adjust it remotely. I'll be in the chat on my tablet updating as needed.

Any chance that SPC moves OK into a Moderate risk for Sunday/Monday based on model trends?

Any chance that SPC moves OK into a Moderate risk for Sunday/Monday based on model trends?

I think Monday is a wash out and there will be little severe weather. Sunday I think we could see a bump to moderate. Tornado threat is definitely going to be there as well as some giant hail. This is the forecast NAM sounding for Norman, and conditions will be better just a bit west. Not perfect backing of the winds at the surface, but still good shear and hodograph (the graph on the right) looks pretty good as well. Lots of instability and everything. Could be a pretty busy day.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/060/SKT_NAM__koun.png

I'd rather have weather on a weekend because more people have flexibility on their schedules and don't have to worry about rushing to get kids or being stuck at work. Except, of course, our resident favorite weather geek has that work thing going on.

Does this look like central OK's most significant setup so far yet this year? What's interesting is the local meteorologists aren't fully in agreement on it. KFOR just recently jumped on the hype train but prior to the noon weather cast they didn't even forecast this to be that significant.

Does this look like central OK's most significant setup so far yet this year? What's interesting is the local meteorologists aren't fully in agreement on it. KFOR just recently jumped on the hype train but prior to the noon weather cast they didn't even forecast this to be that significant.

It could be one of our busier days of the year so far for the state. However if you look at the archive we have here (2014 Severe Weather Archive - OKCTalk (http://www.okctalk.com/showwiki.php?title=Island:37164)), there really hasn't been a big day yet at all. The 7th has been the biggest day as far as number of reports, but that was still a typical slight risk day.

Models have not been handling this weekend well at all, so that would explain why some are holding back a bit.

Channel 5's Brad Sowder has a post on Channel 5's website saying Significant Severe Weather expected for Sunday.

KFOR TV CH 4 OKC indicates that there is a moderate risk on Sunday in north central OK, central OK and south central OK..
They indicated that storms should approach the OKC area by about 7 pm and they will include the risk of tornadoes.

Day 2 updated to include NC OK now, which goes along with the morning models.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS ERN KS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXIST SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS ERN KS AND MO GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S F TO THE
MID 60S F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WOULD BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM
ECNTRL KS EWD INTO WRN MO. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN MO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM NE
KS...SE NEB EWD ACROSS IA AND NRN MO DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/SUN FOR KANSAS CITY SHOW A DEEP MOIST
LAYER BELOW 850 MB WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS.
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED
IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT BELOW 700 MB AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE
MID-LEVELS RESULTING IN ABOUT 40 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
ALONG WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED HAIL GREATER THAN
2 INCHES MAY OCCUR WITH ANY DOMINANT SUPERCELL CLOSE TO THE MAX IN
INSTABILITY. HAVE ADDED A SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITY CONTOUR
ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AS A 50 TO 65
KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NERN
KS...SE NEB...NRN MO AND FAR SW IA.

They have central and northern Oklahoma in the slight risk for Day 2 Saturday in the latest outlook you posted above. But they make no reference about what Oklahoma can expect for tomorrow Saturday. Maybe this was an oversight and will be corrected in an updated Day 2 outlook IDK.

Does this look like central OK's most significant setup so far yet this year? What's interesting is the local meteorologists aren't fully in agreement on it. KFOR just recently jumped on the hype train but prior to the noon weather cast they didn't even forecast this to be that significant.

The bar is pretty low this year so it won't take much to be one of the more "significant" weather days.

The bar is pretty low this year so it won't take much to be one of the more "significant" weather days.

Last year things really didn't get going until the May 18-20th outbreak but the last two weeks of May were among the most violent in state history. From the language I've been hearing I am guess Sunday is expected to be that kind of day?

Last year things really didn't get going until the May 18-20th outbreak but the last two weeks of May were among the most violent in state history. From the language I've been hearing I am guess Sunday is expected to be that kind of day?

I don't think ANYONE has been comparing Sunday to any of the big days last year. And most violent in state history? It was barely Top 10 in tornado product last year. Everything is relative though. 2012 we had the busiest April tornado wise on record, but it was confined to mostly NW OK. For them it was a busy year, for us in Central OK it was mostly ho-hum.

At some point it is almost to where you are wanting to hear it is going to be a major outbreak to feed your paranoia. We are well below the levels of last year right now, at some point things average out. No sense in worrying about where a day is going to rank or compare. By outbreak standards, if there is even such a standard, May 20th had 15 tornadoes...for the entire state. That's not really a lot. It is just notable because of the EF5 that hit a populated area. Do you hear people talk about the October 1998 outbreak anymore? Not really. That had 26 tornadoes.

Sunday is a bit elevated in concern for severe weather. Immediately trying to draw comparisons to events of the past though is just foolish.

Legit gulf moisture is just basking over the entire main body of TX. 70+ DPs galore.

If this rich stuff can stream up here tomorrow and tomorrow night, we could have a good shot at tornadoes (Sunday). I do have some doubts, especially with the little swing by system tomorrow that will be moving up the stalled boundary playing games on our Sunday setup.


bchris, nearly all of your posts in weather threads are asking us to confirm hype scenarios. Just take the information and learn about it, comparisons and hype is for the local mets. If hype without much science is what you want, you are in the wrong thread. The most hype you will get here is bread and milk warnings in the winter.

Venture,

I'll be in Norman Saturday afternoon. Are we talking about garden variety t-storms or the possibility of something more significant?

Venture,

I'll be in Norman Saturday afternoon. Are we talking about garden variety t-storms or the possibility of something more significant?

Hail, wind, and obviously heavy rain. Tornado is low, but not zero like any severe storm. Norman is probably far enough south to not warrant any panic, just keep radar app on tap to check out in the afternoon.