If the dryline is kicking up even a bit ahead of what some of the models suggested, you think SPC will put out an MD for the afternoon/evening hours?

If the dryline is kicking up even a bit ahead of what some of the models suggested, you think SPC will put out an MD for the afternoon/evening hours?

Should have a MCD out here with in a hour...watch probably up by 4.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0509.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...NW TX...TX ROLLING PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071854Z - 072000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE FROM SW OK SWWD INTO TX
ROLLING PLAINS. ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING AS THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST PAST 00Z.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY DRYLINE IS GENERALLY DEMARCATED
BY THE 60 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM WITH THE SECONDARY DRYLINE DEMARCATED
BY THE 45 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM. THERE WAS AN ATTEMPT AT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG THE PRIMARY DRYLINE IN THROCKMORTON COUNTY TX.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED...SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT IN
THAT AREA IS NOT YET SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. DEEPENING CU
IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF BOTH DRYLINES WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG EITHER THIS AFTERNOON.

MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED
PARCEL FROM SW OK SWWD THROUGH THE TX ROLLING PLAINS. SBCAPE IS
ESTIMATED FROM 1500 TO 3000 J PER KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES FROM 30 TO 35 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. HAIL OVER
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH-BASED CHARACTER OF THE
INITIAL CONVECTION. LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
WITH BOTH THE LEFT AND RIGHT MOVERS CAPABLE OF SVR. TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS LOW INITIALLY. WITH THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS PERSIST
PAST 00Z AS OVERALL SHEAR INCREASES BEFORE NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING.

..MOSIER/HART.. 05/07/2014

NW TX starting to light up...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/7-2.png

Severe Watch incoming...will include W metro counties (Kingfisher/Canadian/Grady).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0123_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0122.html)...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
DRYLINE. HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (20%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (<2%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (50%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Low (10%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


High (80%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (60%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (>95%)

Just a reminder. I have the KD5LLI repeater in Caddo County on the stream as well, so watch your volume while watching it. :)

First OK action coming up quick near Clinton.

To the chatroom!

3D image of the developing storms...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/kfdr_20140507_1934.png

First OK action coming up quick near Clinton.

To the chatroom!

I totally just heard the classic Batman "na-na-na-na-na-na" theme play in my head when I read this....

I totally just heard the classic Batman "na-na-na-na-na-na" theme play in my head when I read this....

Holy Mesocyclone, Batman!

Flying out at 2:30 tomorrow to Florida. Think there will be any delays due to weather?

Forward progress is picking up.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
432 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 515 PM CDT


* AT 432 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
CHATTANOOGA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.


HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

Storms popping up all over SW Oklahoma extending NNE to what looks to be the Orion/Fairview area. Some reports of storms in S. OK/N. Texas having *tennis ball* sized hail.

As in "ouch."

Storms popping up all over SW Oklahoma extending NNE to what looks to be the Orion/Fairview area. Some reports of storms in S. OK/N. Texas having *tennis ball* sized hail.

As in "ouch."

Yeah. Power out in Grandfield now. I have the SW Oklahoma repeater playing in the live stream now too so we can hear some of the reports come in.

Another warning...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 515 PM CDT


* AT 435 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER INDIAHOMA...
MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.


HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0511.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL OK...SCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 123...

VALID 072141Z - 072245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS NRN OK AND SCNTRL KS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. AN EXTENSION OF WW 123 TO
INCLUDE PARTS OF NW OK MAY BE NEEDED. IN ADDITION...WW ISSUANCE MAY
BECOME NECESSARY TO THE NORTH OF WW 123 ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL KS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARPLY DEFINED DRYLINE
EXTENDING NNEWD FROM NW TX ACROSS WRN OK INTO SRN KS. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THESE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH
OF WRN OK WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE FREDERICK OK WSR-88D VWP SHOWS A GRADUALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWEST 2 KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS. THE
LATEST WRF-HRRR CONFIRMS THIS BY MOVING A COUPLE OF LIFT SPLIT
SUPERCELLS NNEWD INTO SCNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE
INTENSE UPDRAFTS. ALSO...LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25 TO 35
DEGREES SHOULD HELP ACCELERATE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS MAKING WIND DAMAGE A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/07/2014

Watch Extension...

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 123
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
508 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

OKC003-047-053-093-080300-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0123.000000T0000Z-140508T0300Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 123 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

GARFIELD GRANT

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

ALFALFA MAJOR

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...ENID...
FAIRVIEW AND MEDFORD.

West Metro now warned...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 508 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
CARNEGIE AND 6 MILES NORTH OF INDIAHOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN LAWTON...ANADARKO...CACHE...CARNEGIE...APACHE...
BINGER...FORT COBB...MEDICINE PARK...EAKLY...GRACEMONT...LOOKEBA...
LAKE LAWTONKA...FORT COBB RESERVOIR...ALFALFA...COGAR...ALBERT...
BOONE...MEERS...NORTHWESTERN LAKE ELLSWORTH AND FORT SILL.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0514.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0123.html)...

VALID 072326Z - 080030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN OK AND NW
TX. THE THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO THE EAST OF WW 123.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELLS
LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM JUST TO THE EAST OF
VERNON TX EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR WEATHERFORD OK. ONE RIGHT-MOVING
SUPERCELL EXHIBITING STRONG ROTATION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
WICHITA FALLS. THE LATEST WRF-HRRR SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK EXTENDING SWD TO THE RED RIVER
NORTH OF FORT WORTH TX. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE
MID 60S F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW GRADUALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT.
THIS COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING
CELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT CELL SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS MAY PRODUCE
A TORNADO OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT CAPPING TO THE EAST OF THE CELL MAY
MAKE THE THREAT SHORT-LIVED. FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN SCNTRL
OK...CELL MERGERS SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE
MORE ORGANIZED CELL CLUSTERS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/07/2014


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

Things are starting to rotate on several storms now.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...


* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 700 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURKBURNETT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.


HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

Pay close attention to the storm over the wildlife refuge. Rotation increasing.

It is now TOR warned.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
709 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 708 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF MEERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.


HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/150496319/Dsc01422_bigger.jpgRick Smith‏@ounwcm (https://twitter.com/ounwcm)

Tornado in Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge earlier this evening. Image courtesy Shawn Komahcheet and @AustinKSWO (https://twitter.com/AustinKSWO) pic.twitter.com/qvmyoiIxfT (http://t.co/qvmyoiIxfT)


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BnE_X1VIEAAY3QH.jpg
(https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/464221921736159232/photo/1/large)

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/150496319/Dsc01422_bigger.jpgRick Smith‏@ounwcm (https://twitter.com/ounwcm)

Tornado in Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge earlier this evening. Image courtesy Shawn Komahcheet and @AustinKSWO (https://twitter.com/AustinKSWO) pic.twitter.com/qvmyoiIxfT (http://t.co/qvmyoiIxfT)


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BnE_X1VIEAAY3QH.jpg
(https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/464221921736159232/photo/1/large)




What time was this tornado?

I can't remember when we were initially talking about it. LOL I'll post it in the archive when the storm reports officially come out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0129_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 940 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CHICKASHA OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF ABILENE
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 123 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0123.html). WATCH NUMBER 123 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 940 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 124 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0124.html)...WW 125 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0125.html)...WW
126 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0126.html)...WW 127 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0127.html)...WW 128 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0128.html)...

DISCUSSION...ONGOING SUPERCELLS IN SW OK...AS WELL AS THE BAND OF
STORMS NEAR ABI...WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET
NEAR-SURFACE STABILIZATION...WHILE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.

Forgot to post this here...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT


* AT 953 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALBERT...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.


HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.


SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.


IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL RENO...UNION CITY...MINCO...BINGER...AMBER...EAKLY...
GRACEMONT...LOOKEBA...POCASSET...FORT COBB RESERVOIR...COGAR...
ALBERT...LAKE CHICKASHA AND CEDAR LAKE.

Another warning...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1018 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EAST CENTRAL CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1018 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GRACEMONT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHICKASHA...ANADARKO...VERDEN...AMBER...GRACEMONT. ..NORGE...LAKE
CHICKASHA...NINNEKAH AND LAVERTY.

Emergency crews are being dispatched to Gracemont due to some extensive damage there from the storm coming in. Windows blown out of many buildings from large hail, trees down, and it sounded like some buildings moved around.

Storms with history of damage moving into the body of the Metro area now. Stay alert. We are in the chat still following this.

New Warning for much of the Metro.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1121 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1120 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TUTTLE...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...NORMAN...MOORE...MIDWEST CITY...DEL CITY...
NEWCASTLE...BLANCHARD...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG. ..CHOCTAW...WARR
ACRES...NOBLE...TUTTLE...HARRAH...SPENCER...NICHOL S HILLS...
JONES...NICOMA PARK AND GOLDSBY.

Uhh.. There's a pretty clear hook on the radar on kfor to the west of Moore. Should this be a concern?

Looks like we are going to get a real good rain out of this. We are under a flash flood warning right now.

Yeah, there is a rotating hook just west of Moore.

Is the north metro pretty safe from damaging hail at the moment?

Flash flooding downtown. Thunder exit is a mess!


But damn this is the rain we've been waiting for!

It is raining cats and dogs in The Village!

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman · 1m
1204a-We are watching the Tuttle/Mustang Storm closely, #tornado potential very low. Damaging winds & Heavy Rain the greater threats #okwx

It is raining cats and dogs in The Village!

Is Village Drive under 3 feet of water yet?

Uhh.. There's a pretty clear hook on the radar on kfor to the west of Moore. Should this be a concern?

Yeah, I flipped over to the TV just to see how it was going and that was the first thing I saw. I stressed a little while pulling up the forum.

Rick Smith @ounwcm

1215am - the storms look much scarier on radar than they really are. Flooding biggest threat, especially to motorists. Stay calm.

Mike Morgan is the only one that seems determined to get a tornado out of that storm.

Mike Morgan says the radar shows gate to gate.
Atomized rain
Power flashes reported

Damon and David are focused on the hail and flooding. Damon says strong straight winds. Mike Morgan keeps talking about a weak tornado and Reed is telling people to take shelter. (???????)

Edit a minute - 3 minutes later later: They've said "tornado" over and over and over on Channel 4 for about 20 minutes. It was "possible" "possible" now they are convinced they've got a tornado.

David Payne: NO tornado - "nothing like that."

Trees down on SW 92 and Penn

Channel 4 has made a sudden change to extremely strong straight winds. Somebody put the hammer down.
How funny. Now the tornado is #3 on Mike's list of things that could have caused the limbs down.

His hype, along with Reed Timmer, is unbelievable. They would like to trademark the word 'Tornado'

Channel 4 has made a sudden change to extremely strong straight winds. Somebody put the hammer down.

Yep, they made it very clear very quickly that there is no tornado threat anymore whatsoever. The guy is ridiculous.

Edit: And now he's going back and explaining why he was saying it was a tornado.

You guys are just silly. The storm obviously changed very quickly. I found their reports to be spot on and very accurate. When the storm changed they gave immediate reports on that.

You guys are just silly. The storm obviously changed very quickly. I found their reports to be spot on and very accurate. When the storm changed they gave immediate reports on that on a second by second basis.

Yep, they made it very clear very quickly that there is no tornado threat anymore whatsoever. The guy is ridiculous.

John, I can't believe after what happened last year they would even begin to tread that way. All the way to Reed telling people to "take shelter now."

Now....he's trying to explain how he's in the minority on his opinions, but he thinks he's right. Wow.

You guys are just silly. The storm obviously changed very quickly. I found their reports to be spot on and very accurate. When the storm changed they gave immediate reports on that.

Ya, I agree - it certainly looked scary for a few minutes. A few facebook friends are reporting debris and downed limbs, so there was certainly reason for concern. I think overall Morgan was pretty accurate.

Ya, I agree - it certainly looked scary for a few minutes. A few facebook friends are reporting debris and downed limbs, so there was certainly reason for concern. I think overall Morgan was pretty accurate.

Yes, it seems to be in fashion to bash Mike Morgan no matter how accurate he may be. And he just said that sirens are being sounded in the Tinker area.

You guys are just silly. The storm obviously changed very quickly. I found their reports to be spot on and very accurate. When the storm changed they gave immediate reports on that on a second by second basis.

The hype of "tornado" was hardly spot-on. The other two were stressing how this is not a tornado event. Damon even said, "It's just not that type of situation." David never veered from no tornado threat. The National Weather Service didn't think he was spot-on either, if there was a tornado in any part of the metro area - they would have issued a tornado warning.

The hype of "tornado" was hardly spot-on. The other two were stressing how this is not a tornado event. Damon even said, "It's just not that type of situation." David never veered from no tornado threat. The National Weather Service didn't think he was spot-on either, if there was a tornado in any part of the metro area - they would have issued a tornado warning.

You're totally wrong about that. When a very weak tornado happens very quickly the NWS doesn't have time to issue a warning and may not even issue one for a weak tornado. Mike said it was a category 0 at most and I think there will probably be good evidence to support that. Again, some people just think it fashionable to bash Mike.

You might remember that there was no tornado warning at all for the recent tornado which caused so much damage in NW Oklahoma.

High wind warning for collapsing storms.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

OKZ023-027-038-039-044-045-TXZ086-089-090-080900-
/O.NEW.KOUN.HW.W.0002.140508T0549Z-140508T0900Z/
CADDO-GRADY-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-COTTON-JEFFERSON-WICHITA-ARCHER-
CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...CHICKASHA...LAWTON...
DUNCAN...WALTERS...WAURIKA...WICHITA FALLS...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
1249 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

* TIMING: THROUGH 4 AM.

* WINDS: GUSTS 60 TO 80 MPH FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.

* IMPACTS: EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BLOW LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO KEEP YOUR VEHICLE ON THE ROAD AND CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST.

You're totally wrong about that. When a very weak tornado happens very quickly the NWS doesn't have time to issue a warning and may not even issue one for a weak tornado. Mike said it was a category 0 at most and I think there will probably be good evidence to support that. Again, some people just think it fashionable to bash Mike.

You might remember that there was no tornado warning at all for the recent tornado which caused so much damage in NW Oklahoma.

Was their a tornado? I doubt it. It comes down to actually looking at the velocity data at the time. Shear was very one sided. Having 40-50 kts going one direction but only 10-20 kits the other isn't anything that is going to make me jump up and down with a sparkle tie on. Following the storm through the metro it was pretty evident the high velocity data was mainly for strong winds blowing out of the storms. There were a couple times tonight where I felt we could get a quick spin up, but in most cases the outflow winds would be causing more damage tonight.

As far as sirens at Tinker...

Rick Smith @ounwcm (https://twitter.com/ounwcm)

Tinker AFB sounded their sirens, NOT Midwest City or Del City. They have different criteria for their sirens. #okwx (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash)

One thing for sure, much of Oklahoma City didn't get left out from the rain. 1.5 to 2.5"+ or the state's lion's share. Heat island effect? More on the way, if it hasn't dissipated upon arrival.

Leave it up to Oklahoma City to often not get bypassed by the most significant part of weather systems as they pass through Oklahoma:

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/rainokmay8.png

So what are we looking like for today?

In addition, the SPC now has a 30% risk area out for Monday. It's starting to look more and more like that may be a significant day. Channel 5 is hyping Sunday evening also.

Haven't heard as much about today as we originally did. I'm going to be in Hennessey this afternoon, and I vaguely remember someone posting about threats along 81 today.

So what are we looking like for today?

In addition, the SPC now has a 30% risk area out for Monday. It's starting to look more and more like that may be a significant day. Channel 5 is hyping Sunday evening also.

I think the key for today will be the (in)ability of the atmosphere to recover from the overnight storms combined with just how much heating can take place during the day. If the cloud deck remnants from last night persist, the heating will be limited, thus limiting the fuel for subsequent storm development.

As for Monday, the SPC forecast that I read (at least the parts I think I understand :) ) suggest that the severe storms they're expecting are likely going to have rotation but also be high-based, which leads to their anticipation of potentially large hail and a relatively lower tornado threat. They talk about more surface moisture being present if the storms migrate farther into western OK, which necessarily increases the tornado risk, but I think at this point they're just saying their best model data right now supports the prediction of storms with hail.

Venture will surely come in and correct all of where I'm wrong, but I don't think I'm too far off. The new meteorology word I learned last night was ISODROMOTHERM. I love meteorology if for no other reason than it has FANTASTIC buzzwords. I mean, how can you not go a little crazy over an ISODROMOTHERM (which is just a line connecting areas with the same dewpoints)?? :) It sounds like something the Empire would hide behind the Death Star and unleash on the Jedi's :)

Edit: Wouldn't Day 4 in that outlook actually be Sunday, not Monday? Today is always Day 1, isn't it? Put another way, I don't see any "Day 0" outlooks in their forecasts