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Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Blizzard Watch | Blizzard Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Winter Storm Warning | Ice Storm Warning | Red Flag Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Wind Chill Advisory | Wind Chill Warning | Freezing Rain Advisory | Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe T-Storm Warning | Severe T-Storm Watch
Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma

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Severe Weather Outlooks

Day 1 OutlookDay 2 OutlookDay 3 OutlookDays 4 - 8 Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time.

With most of the upcoming storm activity going to be in April, felt it best to just get the new thread going now.

March 31st - Monday
Slight chance of some storms mainly east of I-35 and then down into South Central OK. Risk is going to be pretty well mitigated though but we might see one or two isolated storms pop up in the area. Nothing really to worry about.

April 1st - Tuesday
Threat for Tuesday is going to be generally Central back to SW OK - south of I-40 and west of 35. Cap will be marginal and breakable it appears now. Instability will be generally around 1500 j/kg, LIs around -4 to -6, and decent vertical shear. LCLs are going to be pretty high, above 900 mb, so surface based convection is going to struggle somewhat to get established. It does appear rotating storms will have a good environment but this generally is going to mean the risk for a couple large hail reports. Not saying tornado threat is not there, I would just like to see LCLs down a bit further to the surface to really get any level of concern. Moisture coming in should be halfway decent. GFS brings 60° dews up to I-40, whereas NAM is generally up to a LAW to Pauls Valley line. SPC has this as a 5% risk area with a SEE TEXT message, but we'll probably see someone upgraded to a Slight Risk as we get closer. However, it'll be a lower end Slight Risk since coverage won't be significant (unless the storm is over your house).

April 2nd - Wednesday
The general trend with the last few model runs has been to slow things down. Wednesday was looking like the day, but that may slide over to Thursday. However, I would still anticipate a Slight Risk area for much of Oklahoma (except far W and the PH) for Wednesday. Overall the environment just looks pretty primed for a severe weather day. Instability wise we are looking at CAPEs over 2000 j/kg, LIs under (over?) -7, a marginal and very breakable cap (1.0), and decent helicity and EHI values. I would say Wednesday will have a definite tornado risk with it, LCLs are must closer to the surface around 929 mb, and the other indices are in place (see sounding below). Both NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement on the environment for Wednesday. I'm not going to jump on the boat of calling for strong tornadoes or anything foolish like that right now. Things are still in flux, but we'll get a better idea as we get closer. Definite SLIGHT RISK day and it maybe be a higher end one at that.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_084_35.19,-97.31_skewt_SB.gif

April 3rd - Thursday
Thursday appears to be another severe day on hand. This looks like it would include the areas along 35 and to the east. It very well could be an early afternoon show for the Metro and then out east for the evening. I would like to get another days worth of models on this one first before getting too involved with it. However, environment appears it will be favorable for severe weather and if we go off of the GFS solution right now, appears it would be a (broken) squall line of storms wind damage and hail with a more unidirectional setup to the winds - at least for Central OK. Again, wait until tomorrow and definitely Tuesday before getting into it more.

At least we never have to hear people refer to may 3rd anymore... Sigh.
There are too many of us on here alone, that are looking at model date to let anything sneak by.

you'd know for sure if the threat were that serious well ahead of time.

They have come so far in this. Anything can happen but I've been here most of my life and I honestly can't imagine not knowing at least a couple of days ahead of time if there is a real problem. And I also can't imagine not knowing the day of the event that it is likely to happen. And we usually have 2-3 hours of people closely watching the weather blow up and calling out a play by play when things start to pop. None of that does anyone any good if you don't have a plan but if you're watching with a good plan, there is just no reason for someone to get hurt. In 1999, we went home early from work. We knew hours ahead of time. Last year, on the big ones we knew all day that monsters might be coming and literally had hours ahead of time to prepare.

Nearly all the time you aren't in the line of fire, thank goodness. But there is absolutely no reason to find yourself in a situation where a big tornado pops up and catches you by surprise. On the days where the monsters come, you need to be out of the area, in a shelter, or otherwise be ready with your tornado plan. It is trickier when you work and have kids in school but dealing with that should be part of the plan. There shouldn't be any surprises once you know Mr. Tornado may show up at your door sometime between 3 - 6 (or whatever the forecasters are telling you). If you are monitoring the situation, you'll know when it's coming or when conditions are ripe. If you don't have a plan, even if you know it's coming you're counting on luck.

Obviously not everyone can count on a Venture but in the past few years, I've checked in on his website and he is kind enough to tell me as soon as he sees something threatening my area. That's no guarantee that it won't happen or that something won't pop up as an outlier but tornadoes hardly ever show up without giving off signs ahead of time. And the big ones are screaming their arrival.

They have come so far in this. Anything can happen but I've been here most of my life and I honestly can't imagine not knowing at least a couple of days ahead of time if there is a real problem. And I also can't imagine not knowing the day of the event that it is likely to happen. And we usually have 2-3 hours of people closely watching the weather blow up and calling out a play by play when things start to pop. None of that does anyone any good if you don't have a plan but if you're watching with a good plan, there is just no reason for someone to get hurt. In 1999, we went home early from work. We knew hours ahead of time. Last year, on the big ones we knew all day that monsters might be coming and literally had hours ahead of time to prepare.

Nearly all the time you aren't in the line of fire, thank goodness. But there is absolutely no reason to find yourself in a situation where a big tornado pops up and catches you by surprise. On the days where the monsters come, you need to be out of the area, in a shelter, or otherwise be ready with your tornado plan. It is trickier when you work and have kids in school but dealing with that should be part of the plan. There shouldn't be any surprises once you know Mr. Tornado may show up at your door sometime between 3 - 6 (or whatever the forecasters are telling you). If you are monitoring the situation, you'll know when it's coming or when conditions are ripe. If you don't have a plan, even if you know it's coming you're counting on luck.

Obviously not everyone can count on a Venture but in the past few years, I've checked in on his website and he is kind enough to tell me as soon as he sees something threatening my area. That's no guarantee that it won't happen or that something won't pop up as an outlier but tornadoes hardly ever show up without giving off signs ahead of time. And the big ones are screaming their arrival.
Good points.

There is still a huge problem with many employers and schools not having a good plan in place to ether house people on site in certified shelters or let them go home in plenty of time.
We need to look at not having school at schools that don't have certified shelters on during time periods when the tornado risk is significant.
Large employers should pay more for workers comp if they don't have good tornado shelters.

I think, in general, whenever "severe weather" is mentioned, you'd be best to not assume it was going to be anything like 5/20 or 5/31 rather than the opposite. Take it seriously and stay informed, but those dates are definitely not typical even of severe weather days, and you'd know for sure if the threat were that serious well ahead of time.

That's reassuring. My perception is a bit skewed because of the 2013 season. Winter lingered through the first week of May holding off severe weather. Then, once it started hitting I remember three times severe weather was forecasted. The first ended up being a hailstorm that totaled almost every car at my apartment complex (luckily I was out of town when it hit). The second was the May 18-20th outbreak and the third was the May 29-31st outbreak.

Not a lot of changes to the upcoming forecast from what was previously mentioned.

Today - small line of storms this morning, nothing several from central back to the SW OK will provide a little noise this morning. Not much more.

Tomorrow - SPC has the slight risk in SW OK / Western North Texas and it is a 15% hatched area for large hail. Looking at an isolated storm or two that will have a chance for a tornado and damaging winds along with the hail threat. There is also a slight risk for far Northern OK for some elevated storms with large hail.

Wednesday - This still looks like the main show. Slight risk is officially out for all but far western OK. There is a 15% hatched area over Central OK for possible higher end severe weather. The basic setup will have the front drapped over NW OK with a dryline extending from it through SW OK. Initiation will take place at the intersecting point and also along any possible bulges in the dryline in SW OK. Storms will be moving ENE at 30 mph it appears. As we get into the evening hours, the low level jet is expected to increase causing the tornado threat to go up for a couple hours before instability begins to fade and the storms weaken. As of this point, just plan for all modes of severe weather to be possible and have your safety plan ready to go if needed.

Will update more this evening.

Bchris02... Thery're hyping it a lot up here in Tulsa lol

Ventrue... Sorry didn't realize april discussion already started.. Anyways, back to my question...

Now on to the weather.... Venture, what's your data suggesting for Wednesday and Thursday? I'm seeing a pretty high probability of all modes of severe weather both Wednesday and Thursday as a dry line looks to pop off a few supercell storms as it moves towards Eastern OK. The mets in Tulsa are predicting a high chance.... Could we be possibly looking for a "PDS" tornado watch being issued for either Wednesday or Thursday? They are really giving some hype here in Tulsa for Wednesday and Thursday. Do you think this will be a more eastern ok storm?

Also, even meteorologist on certain tv stations here in Tulsa that NEVER give us high chances for severe weather are giving us high chances. I thought that was pretty interesting. Like always, thank you very much Venture!

Ventrue... Sorry didn't realize april discussion already started.. Anyways, back to my question...

Now on to the weather.... Venture, what's your data suggesting for Wednesday and Thursday? I'm seeing a pretty high probability of all modes of severe weather both Wednesday and Thursday as a dry line looks to pop off a few supercell storms as it moves towards Eastern OK. The mets in Tulsa are predicting a high chance.... Could we be possibly looking for a "PDS" tornado watch being issued for either Wednesday or Thursday? They are really giving some hype here in Tulsa for Wednesday and Thursday. Do you think this will be a more eastern ok storm?

Thoughts posted above. Won't go into more detail until later this evening with the 00Z model runs.

I posted that comment before I notice the comments above. sorry about that.

Bit of a side-note as we look this week to our first round of possibly severe spring-type weather....

It's interesting to consider how our own experiences influence our perception of the weather seasons.

I don't know if its a matter of perception biased by age and youth, or if there's anything actually statistically relevant about it, but from the time I was growing up in the 70's I always remember April being the "harem-scarem" month for severe weather. It was the month I always dreaded, much more so than May, even though we all know what May can bring.

And I also recall severe weather being more of the form of E->W squall lines, with fewer of the "individual" cells making the headlines. I remember as a kid looking to the west in a warm, muggy April afternoon and looking for the leading cirrus off the tops of the thunderheads, studying the directions of the anvils atop the big cumulonimbus formations, and it would almost instantly put my stomach into a knot for the rest of the day. Heck, a "Severe Thunderstorm Watch" with a WKY-TV/Jim Williams alert (beeeep-beeeep-beeeep) would do the same thing. When things got bad enough for them to go "wall to wall," which was fairly rare back then, the eerie glow of the old black-and-white met radars focused in on an area where a hook was detected was always scary. My dad, being from New England, didn't understand ANY of the preoccupation with OK severe weather and just hated all of it, didn't understand my upset at all. Education about weather was a wonderful thing as I got older.

Mitigating any of that anxiety is a matter of faith, education, and patience, and realizing there's only so much you can do about any of it...

Very well put comment SoonerDave!

I used to live in a house that, while brick and only one level, wasn't set up with a center room. So many houses try to get windows in each room and in the interest of lightening up a center room, big mirrors were a common decorating theme. Mirrors scare me more than windows, actually. As they got better with forecasting, I actually got more stressed because I'd know stuff was out there but didn't have a shelter. This was pre weather internet and free television was our main source although at some point the weather channel became the go to station unless the free channels were wall to wall. Piled the kids in the bathtub fairly regularly. Other than that, didn't have much of a real plan and I honestly think I was more prepared than most of my friends and neighbors - I'd at least pile up blankets and comforters in the bathroom to be ready.

My stress level went way down once the kids grew up and I found myself for a couple of years with no pets - easy enough to take myself over to a hospital or someplace substantial on a scary day. Never did it because nothing really threatened the house during that time.

The advent of internet storm monitoring was a huge plus for me as well as having so many ways to educate myself on the science of storms rather than just the danger. Knowledge is a good thing although it's no shield if you're ground zero. Buying a shelter was as much about getting off high center and being proactive due to an interest in storms as it was about genuine concern for my safety. Let's see - I can stress (and worry my family), or I can get a shelter and embrace the whole mindset that you need a real plan. I'd wanted one for years but until the May 31 gridlock flight, Husband was of the mind that he'd rather gamble. He'd pay five million dollars to avoid THAT again.

I have never seen so many people buying shelters and the guys who put in ours can barely keep up. Personally, I think Mike Morgan's ill advised suggestion that the whole city flee may ultimately be the most effective way to get people to invest in shelters. Probably will end up saving lives in the long run. Only a few people get hit by tornadoes but thousands upon thousands got hit by gridlock with a psychotornado at their heels.

The Oklahoman is hyping baseball+ sized hail. Is that looking like a probability? If so, are we looking at isolated hail cores or something widespread like the 2010 storm?

The Oklahoman is hyping baseball+ sized hail. Is that looking like a probability? If so, are we looking at isolated hail cores or something widespread like the 2010 storm?

Hail is possible with every severe storm. People are usually more focused on hyping the tornado threat during severe weather events.

bchris02.... Baseball hail is a possibility if storms fire off and supercells develop..

Please visit the link below, This is per The National Weather Service in Norman.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full1.jpg


You can also find additional information from the National Weather Service at: National Weather Service Forecast Office - Norman, Oklahoma (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)

Hope this answers your question. -Taylor

I never in my life saw anything like the 2010 hail storms until 2010.

Watching some clouds go up east of us. Are they worried about weather that along that line? Looks lean and mean.

I have noticed the change in the sky the last several days...Spring is definitely here. As an "incomer" I had to learn to take tornado watches and warnings seriously, and over the years I have picked up on one rather telling fact concerning approaching severe weather...almost all the birds disappear.

I've noticed birds hunkering down ahead of storms, too. They're active this afternoon, though.

Oh Boy News 9 has us under a moderate risk of Severe weather on Wednesday BE PREPARE FOR THIS STORM!!!!

Oh Boy News 9 has us under a moderate risk of Severe weather on Wednesday BE PREPARE FOR THIS STORM!!!!

Remember when risk levels actually meant something? Sheesh.

I think Venture needs to publish a "Oklahoma Weather for Dummies" book...

i think venture needs to publish a "oklahoma weather for dummies" book...

like!!!

Oh Boy News 9 has us under a moderate risk of Severe weather on Wednesday BE PREPARE FOR THIS STORM!!!!
They are not alone

http://i.imgur.com/4oRIs62.jpg

They are not alone

I'm not seeing a moderate risk there...just an area of greater chance for higher end weather. Coverage density will determine if it gets upgraded. Right now it is at 15%. This is the problem with trying to compare the local media maps and the NWS products. They don't mean the same thing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_C182i8Qus&feature=youtu.be
These people^ do a great job


This is Severe Weather Briefing: Monday March 31, 2014 from the Norman National Weather Service office

“Don't be scared, be prepared”

I'm not seeing a moderate risk there...just an area of greater chance for higher end weather. Coverage density will determine if it gets upgraded. Right now it is at 15%. This is the problem with trying to compare the local media maps and the NWS products. They don't mean the same thing.

Yea the local media using their own maps and categories is a real joke. Honestly there is no purpose to doing so.

The Weather Channel has us at a TOR:CON 4 for Wednesday.

The afternoon discussion is available from OUN: IEM :: AFD from NWS OUN (http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDOUN&e=201403312048)

Some highlights since it is extremely long:

Tuesday


ECENT GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH WRT INSTABILITY... SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP INTO THE UPPER 50S... POSSIBLY LOWER 60S THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. SBCAPE VALUES OF 1800 TO 2200 J/KG WILL POOL ALONG/NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE TEXOMA REGION. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR 45-55KTS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT.



EXPECT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TO BE ISOLATED... STARTING LATE AFTN...3-5PM... WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AND SOME STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OK.


TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW AS LL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING... AFTER THE DRY LINE BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER... THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY... IN CASE ANY SUPERCELL THAT ENDS UP RIDING THE SW BOUNDARY MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE EVENING... BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO IF IT IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE LL WIND FIELD... PENDING THE CAPPING INVERSION ISN'T TOO STRONG.

Wednesday


STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MID/LATE AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OK... EXACT LOCATIONS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE SURGES AND THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN SUFFICIENCY OF OTHER PARAMETERS... TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT... BUT WILL HINGE ON IMPACTS FROM LL FLOW... CURRENTLY 0-1KM SHEAR IS PALTRY IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT GUIDANCE 10 TO 15 KTS BY THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH GOOD UPPER LVL SUPPORT... 950 TO 850 MB S/SW WINDS COULD REACH 30-40KTS. WITH SUCH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS... TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... AS THESE CONDITIONS MAY ASSIST IN OVERCOMING THE LOW LL SHEAR.

2010... was that the year people were parking in the middle of the highway under bridges blocking everyone else from passing through?

2010... was that the year people were parking in the middle of the highway under bridges blocking everyone else from passing through?


It happened last year too

People hiding under overpasses has been going on for years. It isn't really a recent trend. Annoying as hell though when trying to get through and you end up trapped.

The Oklahoman is hyping baseball+ sized hail. Is that looking like a probability? If so, are we looking at isolated hail cores or something widespread like the 2010 storm?

I try not to worry to death about such things until there is a tornado watch out.

SoonerDave: I remember April as the "storm" month as well. We're about the same age, too. I remember the "April showers bring May flowers" song. I think you're right about perceptions being different when you're young (or old!) but it's definitely different now.

As for all the "prepare now for this storm!" from some over-excited posters, there's really not much any of us can do to prepare for these storms this far in advance.

Another storm season. Ugh. They come and they go. Que Sera Sera (whatever will be, will be).

The Weather Channel has us at a TOR:CON 4 for Wednesday.

If the Weather Channel and its moronic TOR:CON index were a piece of paper, I'd wad it up in to the most microsocopic ball possible, douse it in gasoline, set it afire, stomp out the ashes, scoop them up, and sprinkle them on Mike Morgan's oatmeal.

If the Weather Channel and its moronic TOR:CON index were a piece of paper, I'd wad it up in to the most microsocopic ball possible, douse it in gasoline, set it afire, stomp out the ashes, scoop them up, and sprinkle them on Mike Morgan's oatmeal.

It makes more sense than KFOR's new threat level system. They should just stop with the "slight", "moderate", "enhanced slight" or whatever and come up with something that people will understand better.

It makes more sense than KFOR's new threat level system. They should just stop with the "slight", "moderate", "enhanced slight" or whatever and come up with something that people will understand better.

I disagree. I don't think people have any more idea what a "4" vs a "5" means on the Tor-con scale than they do the difference between "slight" vs "enhanced slight".

The thing is "slight" doesn't really mean slight when it comes to severe weather. There needs to be a scale that will give people an idea of what is possible and how likely it is. For instance, conditions that favor long tract, violent tornadoes (F4+) like May 20th, 2013 or May 31, 2013 should fall differently on the scale than conditions that favor hail to golf balls and a squall line, both which are considered severe events and could happen under a "slight" risk.

The thing is "slight" doesn't really mean slight when it comes to severe weather. There needs to be a scale that will give people an idea of what is possible and how likely it is. For instance, conditions that favor long tract, violent tornadoes (F4+) like May 20th, 2013 or May 31, 2013 should fall differently on the scale than conditions that favor hail to golf balls and a squall line, both which are considered severe events and could happen under a "slight" risk.

Well, I suppose you may have a point. However, speaking only for myself, I've never had any trouble keeping the types of weather straight. There has been many a storm where there were big tornadoes on some areas and that doesn't make me overlook that there might be hail at my place. To me, these might just be different aspects of a particular system. Since they so often come together, I don't really know why someone would want to separate them with a different severity system. To me, it is not so much about severity as likelihood. There is a "slight" risk of hail if it isn't likely to happen. A "severe" risk if it is probably going to happen. A "slight" risk of a long term tornado if it probably isn't going to happen but it could. A "severe" risk of a long term tornado means, to me, that is it much more likely to happen.

You worry much, much, much, much more about hail than I do and to be honest, I know that stuff is considered to be "severe," but I pretty much shrug it off. if it isn't a catastrophe, I don't sweat it. Sometimes I worry about cows if there is a bad hail storm.

The thing is "slight" doesn't really mean slight when it comes to severe weather. There needs to be a scale that will give people an idea of what is possible and how likely it is. For instance, conditions that favor long tract, violent tornadoes (F4+) like May 20th, 2013 or May 31, 2013 should fall differently on the scale than conditions that favor hail to golf balls and a squall line, both which are considered severe events and could happen under a "slight" risk.

Most people are not as WX savvy as those who read this thread and most people are not near as tornado savvy as what most Oklahoman are.... While most of us on this thread don't really need it the WX channels Tor-Con index it is a useful tool to help reach a certain type of person who may not want to take the time to learn more.
Right or wrong the higher the Tor Con index is, the more ordinary folks will pay attention.

Alright back to weather.

Tuesday

00Z Nam Discussion
Warm front will move back north overnight and through Tuesday. By late afternoon the front should be near the I-44 corridor and retreating further to the NW. Instability will be highest in the I-44 to I-35 portion of SW OK with CAPE values at or above 2500 j/kg and LIs around -7. Looks like dewpoints will be in the mid 50s to low 60s in this area. Convective inhibition will be absent once we get to late afternoon/early evening but quickly return after sunset. Overall coverage seems to be fairly isolated with the best area appears to be in the area of SW OK between I-44 and I-35 and then further SW into N TX. Forecast sounding (below) highlights a region that will be primed for severe weather as long as we get see storms initiate.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_NAM_024_34.31,-97.8_skewt_SB.gif

00Z GFS Discussion

Not many differences than NAM except for some modest position differences and more convection. Instability is all pretty much the same and the key areas as well. To compare, here is the sounding for the same general area in SW OK as the one above...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_GFS_024_34.41,-98.03_skewt_SB.gif

Main threads - large hail and damaging winds. Tornado threat will be there, but the window will be narrow since the boundaries will be retreating later in the evening. We'll have to see how things go. GFS does have more CIN and a stronger cap. So best to just go with a balance here and see how things progress tomorrow.

SPC has gone pretty conservative for today. Smaller risk area, removed hatched section, and really holds most activity back due to weaker forcing.

...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR W OF THE DRYLINE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S F RETURNING NWWD AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BROADLY INCREASES ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH DEPARTS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NWRN TX. THEREFORE...WHILE
MODERATE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED...WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE
CONDITIONAL. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO MAY BE FOR A LINE OF TCU TO
FORM ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN/RETREATING
DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AS THIS AIR MIXES
INTO THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN ISSUE TO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE LACK OF PROLONGED FORCING
AND LIKELY MIXING OF THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES FURTHER DURING THE EVENING...CAPPING WILL EXIST...THUS
STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ou48A... I completely agree with you. The torcon index does have its flaws but can be very useful. There was a torcon index of 4 in Missouri last week and guess what? Tornado warnings were issued. Last May the weather channel gave central OK a 6 and the EF5 hit Moore. People just need to understand how the Torcon works and what it means. I don't agree with a lot of the meteorologist on TWC (they seem like idiots) but Dr. Greg Forbes is very knowledgeable when it comes to tornados. Your absolutely right though, the torcon is good for people that don't know a whole lot about weather. (even though myself and the majority of people on this site know quite a bit)

Here is how the Torcon works,

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

They have given Central and Eastern OK a 4 for Wednesday with all concern shifting to just Eastern OK Thursday with a torcon of 4-5. Even though a 4 is not a huge number (40% chance of a tornado) That is still in the moderate category and several tornadoes have touched down with a "4".

I do think torcon is more useful to the average viewer than KFOR's system no doubt. I believe they had an 8 on May 31, 2013.

ou48A... I completely agree with you. The torcon index does have its flaws but can be very useful. There was a torcon index of 4 in Missouri last week and guess what? Tornado warnings were issued. Last May the weather channel gave central OK a 6 and the EF5 hit Moore. People just need to understand how the Torcon works and what it means. I don't agree with a lot of the meteorologist on TWC (they seem like idiots) but Dr. Greg Forbes is very knowledgeable when it comes to tornados. Your absolutely right though, the torcon is good for people that don't know a whole lot about weather. (even though myself and the majority of people on this site know quite a bit)

Here is how the Torcon works,

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

They have given Central and Eastern OK a 4 for Wednesday with all concern shifting to just Eastern OK Thursday with a torcon of 4-5. Even though a 4 is not a huge number (40% chance of a tornado) That is still in the moderate category and several tornadoes have touched down with a "4".

So what you're saying is that the harem-scarem index boils down to "low, moderate, or high"...help me understand how this is so much more informative to the casual observer than a "slight, moderate, or high" severe weather risk?

Sorry, but TORCON is just another way to frighten, drive website hits, and push ratings.

Hey, I never said it was more useful than slight, moderate, or high. I simply said it has its flaws but can be useful.

bchris02... If i'm not mistaking May 31st, 2013 was the El Reno Tornado. TWC gave a Torcon value of 6 on May 20th, 2013 when the Moore tornado hit.

Soonerdave... Also, Slight, moderate, and high refers to all types of Severe weather. I understand in a way the torcon does also, but for the most part torcon gives the casual observer the chances of a tornado happening within a 50 mile radius of whatever destination they choose (e.g. Eastern OK/Central OK). It helps people understand in a way what the chances of tornadoes are. Some people get confused with slight, moderate, and high cause that could mean different things. It's kind of like people not knowing the difference between watches and warnings if that makes since to you. I never said it was a perfect system though sir

Wednesday's outlook changed slightly. Still a general 15% risk area over Central and Eastern OK with a hatched area from the Metro back to the north and northeast. Models last night still struggle to develop much in the way of any convection except for the isolated storm and SPC is picking up on that. Looks like risk will be limited to a decent cap much of the day and evening and it'll take a good push along the dryline to get things kicked off. There is a chance the cap wins and nothing happens, but I'm thinking we should still see one or two storms bust through. Any storm that makes it and busts through will likely be severe with all modes possible.

I do think torcon is more useful to the average viewer than KFOR's system no doubt. I believe they had an 8 on May 31, 2013.

EVERYONE was harping on the severe weather threat that day, not just TWC.

How about rain amounts?

How about rain amounts?

The isolated nature of storms will impact amounts that makes it pretty tough to even bother with amounts right now.

Today could be a sleeper in SC OK. If something breaks through cap, almost a guaranteed supercell. N TX looks to have a better shot at this, but I am more worried about non-isolation down there.

Right now Wednesday looks like high bust potential in C OK. Dryline will have to be really mean to set something off before moving east enough. I agree with SPC's SLIGHT risk right now.


EDIT: I said Thursday, meant Wednesday.

ANON... What do you think for Eastern OK? I noticed there was a pretty good bust potential in OKC area but it's looking like a higher potential for Wednesday and Thursday here in Eastern OK. It's looking like storms will fire off somewhere just North/Northeast of OKC tomorrow somewhere to the surface low... Do you concur? What do you think sir?

Yea I would say E OK looks like really good shot at severe storms. Depending on where/if storms fire on dryline, the cap will have eroded enough by then that storms should be a good bet across much of NE into E OK. Storms could take on more a conglomerate structure or linear structure with emphasized wind threat as they evolve. But again, this depends on where they fire. It is tough for supercells to be sustained for a long period of time, especially heading into dark. Hail and tornados will be primary threat with supercells closest to dryline, if they fire.

Will know more tomorrow morning on location/timings/dewpoints.

Yeah I notice that storms will most likely start dying off a little bit after dark due to the cap starting to build back in place. What about for Thursday? Computer models are having a little bit of a struggle placing locations. Some models have a moderate threat for severe storms/tornadoes just east of Tulsa and some have Tulsa smack dab in the middle. I would think the severe threat would be during the late morning hours Thursday possibly early afternoon unless the front completely stalls out. Some people are suggesting late afternoon early evening would be the threat Thursday.

Man if these storms fire off near/just east of Enid there looks like a pretty decent chance of them being supercells around the pawnee/osage/Washington county areas with the surface low being in place. I would say IF there are supercells they would last just a little before bowing out and becoming more of a hail/straight line wind event.