I'm getting pretty darn excited about Saturday.

I know I sound like a sicko. It's an okie thing.

me too, some of the best moods I'm in all year are on severe weather days. The destruction may suck at times but its a great reminder that mother earth still owns it and we only stay here.

I set up for these storms days like just like I do for sporting events, multiple TVs, radios, cookouts, beer in the cooler and I'm good to go

Mike Morgan is predicting Sunday to be the biggest day with another shot at storms on Monday. I guess it all depends on where the dryline sets up.

Correct me if I am wrong here. If the dryline is right over the metro or barely west of it, might supercells go up but not be strong enough to do significant damage until they get a little farther east? Likewise, if its far enough west might we look at them converging into a squall line by the time they get here?

Mike Morgan is predicting Sunday to be the biggest day with another shot at storms on Monday. I guess it all depends on where the dryline sets up.

Correct me if I am wrong here. If the dryline is right over the metro or barely west of it, might supercells go up but not be strong enough to do significant damage until they get a little farther east? Likewise, if its far enough west might we look at them converging into a squall line by the time they get here?

A lot of unknowns about dryline placement Sunday. Plus or minus 50 miles can make a big difference. Storms can become mature supercells in about 30 minutes under the right conditions.

Mike Morgan is predicting Sunday to be the biggest day with another shot at storms on Monday. I guess it all depends on where the dryline sets up.

Correct me if I am wrong here. If the dryline is right over the metro or barely west of it, might supercells go up but not be strong enough to do significant damage until they get a little farther east? Likewise, if its far enough west might we look at them converging into a squall line by the time they get here?

Impossible to answer due to tons of conditions.

We have seen linear intiation go super cellic and we have seen super cellic go linear.

For example, this is what looks to be an evolving line of storms with embedded supercells. It doesn't take long for them to move into a more favorable environment and become isolated.

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/rabin/public_html/fire/kvnx_1603_30mar06.gif

Venture, correct me if I'm wrong, but based on your comments and the way things are lining up it looks to me like we could see stuff strong enough overnight Saturday such that the atmosphere wouldn't have a chance to calm down/recpver enough to facilitate the setup some are forecasting for Sunday. Reasonable possibility (amid all the infinite permutations of all the variables :) )?

Lots of folks concerned about weather for the marathon on Sunday a.m., and rightly so. I know most of the big storms usually pop up late afternoon when temps are cooking at their highest levels, but as we get closer, can you guys let us know how things look to be lining up for the Marathon? About 25,000 plus folks are expected to be outside running in this. Thanks!

Venture, correct me if I'm wrong, but based on your comments and the way things are lining up it looks to me like we could see stuff strong enough overnight Saturday such that the atmosphere wouldn't have a chance to calm down/recpver enough to facilitate the setup some are forecasting for Sunday. Reasonable possibility (amid all the infinite permutations of all the variables :) )?

There is always that possibility.


Lots of folks concerned about weather for the marathon on Sunday a.m., and rightly so. I know most of the big storms usually pop up late afternoon when temps are cooking at their highest levels, but as we get closer, can you guys let us know how things look to be lining up for the Marathon? About 25,000 plus folks are expected to be outside running in this. Thanks!

Honestly, Saturday will impact Sunday. So it very well can come down to a last minute call.

Lots of folks concerned about weather for the marathon on Sunday a.m., and rightly so. I know most of the big storms usually pop up late afternoon when temps are cooking at their highest levels, but as we get closer, can you guys let us know how things look to be lining up for the Marathon? About 25,000 plus folks are expected to be outside running in this. Thanks!

Mike Morgan just said some wind and hail may be possible Sunday morning but no real tornado threat until Sunday afternoon.

Edit: Good news is his map has Saturday's focal point in western Oklahoma with a moderate risk out there and only a slight risk in the metro.

Mike Morgan just said some wind and hail may be possible Sunday morning but no real tornado threat until Sunday afternoon.

Thanks, bchris! Sadly, I have little faith in MM's prognostications since (to me) he seems a drama-stirrer more than anything, which is why I turn to the fine folks here.


Honestly, Saturday will impact Sunday. So it very well can come down to a last minute call.

Venture, I hear ya on the "Saturday may change everything" call. Will keep checking back. Thanks!

A lot of unknowns about dryline placement Sunday. Plus or minus 50 miles can make a big difference. Storms can become mature supercells in about 30 minutes under the right conditions.

Agreed. We saw this on May 19, 2013, which was the Edmond and Shawnee tornadoes. Supercells fired but they were able to make it east of the metro area before they did any major damage (unfortunate for the folks in Shawnee). May 20th on the other hand was right at that sweet spot in which the cells were at maximum intensity over densely populated territory.

18Z GFS... here is the forecast sounding for Saturday in OKC at 7PM. This latest run breaks storms out along or just east of US 183 now approaching the metro by mid evening. This is what you call directional shear. :)

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/18_GFS_102_35.39,-97.55_skewt_SB.gif

Jeez louise, are your little black arrow flag things on the right side supposed to be flying off the graph!?

Jeez louise, are your little black arrow flag things on the right side supposed to be flying off the graph!?

Yeah, that would be lower level winds heading in the opposite direction of the upper level winds. lol

Yeah, that would be lower level winds heading in the opposite direction of the upper level winds. lol

It's very dramatic. I am a complete beginner with reading these soundings. I sort of get what some of it is a little, but I don't then know what the implications of the data are.

It's very dramatic. I am a complete beginner with reading these soundings. I sort of get what some of it is a little, but I don't then know what the implications of the data are.

No worries, I don't really understand it either. lol

Jeez louise, are your little black arrow flag things on the right side supposed to be flying off the graph!?

Don't you know 32nd notes when you see them?? All hanging off the Trouble Clef? Indicating Sharp winds across the Flat plains?

This may help a little: Weather Spotlight - Upper Air Soundings (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/soundings.html)

I put values on the left hand side in a scale that gives a general idea of when each value starts to get a bit extreme. Keep in mind, just one value in the high category - or further right on the scale - doesn't mean end of the world. It is all relative and everything has to work together.

18Z GFS... here is the forecast sounding for Saturday in OKC at 7PM. This latest run breaks storms out along or just east of US 183 now approaching the metro by mid evening. This is what you call directional shear. :)

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/18_GFS_102_35.39,-97.55_skewt_SB.gif

So has the dryline potentially moved east from where it was originally supposed to be?

So has the dryline potentially moved east from where it was originally supposed to be?

This is a model of what the environment could be like above OKC at 7:00 Saturday. Doesn't indicate where thunderstorms will fire or be at. It shows what thunderstorms could do if their in the area.

This is a model of what the environment could be like above OKC at 7:00 Saturday. Doesn't indicate where thunderstorms will fire or be at. It shows what thunderstorms could do if their in the area.

My question was more aimed at his statement about storms firing around Hwy 183.

So has the dryline potentially moved east from where it was originally supposed to be?

Drylines are difficult to forecast...let alone forecast this far out.

BChris, you need to go to Cancun or something. I suggest a Thursday flight and come back Monday.


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What's incorrect about what I said? I know I'm not the most liked poster around here but I would appreciate if you (and others) would refrain from insulting me unless I say something that warrants being insulted for.

I think your comment was spot on. If what hit around El Reno marched through Yukon and Western OKC it would have been a killer. No reason to fault you for making that observation.

I'm getting pretty darn excited about Saturday.

I know I sound like a sicko. It's an okie thing.

LOL. My teenage daughter said a few weeks ago: "I love tornadic weather." I had to remind her how devastating and awful they are for people impacted by them, but it is a major production here, with chasers, helicopter footage, squawking weathermen and women, beeps on the TV.

She may also like it because we hang tight as a family, have all of our stuff in order, ready to go to the basement, etc. It's an annual event.

I think your comment was spot on. If what hit around El Reno marched through Yukon and Western OKC it would have been a killer. No reason to fault you for making that observation.

That's very true, but the same thing could be said about the tsunami that hit Malaysia. Why fret about something that never happened? I'm sure you might say that couldn't happen here but a large asteroid hitting in the gulf could cause that. Ridiculous? Of Course it is. but I just see no point speculating about things like that when it didn't happen.

Updated Day 1 maintains Slight Risk from I-35 to the west. Main tornado threat will be in SW and West Central OK. Tornado threat, as discussed earlier, will come in after storms get established and LCLs drop.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ...REACHING THE SRN
ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB TO W TX
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS ON THU MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
THE PLUME OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PER 00Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA/ WILL LIKELY EMANATE
NWD FROM DEEP S TX WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/...SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S N OF THE RED RIVER WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS CNTRL TX.

LATEST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH TWO
GENERAL REGIMES FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST QUITE STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN
KS...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BENEATH MODERATE-STRONG 500-MB SWLYS OWING TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH INTENSITY WANING
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY.

FARTHER S...SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DURING THE
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE ENLARGED AS FLOW
STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE REALIZED BETWEEN
00-03Z ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 60 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
INVOF W OK/NW TX. STILL...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST TORNADO RISK. WITH
TIME...COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD
A SMALL MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND N TX WITH SEVERE
HAIL/WIND RISKS SUBSIDING EARLY THU.

..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 04/23/2014

00Z GFS made some pretty interesting modifications and such and hope was 00Z Euro would clear things up. Well...it made things even more confusing. So for today/Wednesday it now keeps the dryline back in the TX Panhandle just east of I-27. This is similar to the 00Z GFS solution and also the 00Z NAM. GFS bring storms in to the Metro by mid to late evening. NAM and the Euro are pretty isolated with storms and even dry for the Metro.

For Saturday, GFS has the dryline right along the TX/OK border out west by 7PM. The new Euro is pretty much the same. NAM doesn't go out that far. This is a bit further west than the previous runs, but not by much. GFS initiates storms from Clinton down to Altus but Euro does it in far NW OK. GFS brings storms into Central OK through the evening...Euro has nothing until Sunday morning.

So in short, the 00Z models didn't do much to help clarify anything. Just completely muddied the waters even more. We'll see what the 12Z models show, otherwise tomorrow we'll just focus on more of a nowcasting approaching and see how things are setting up.

New Day 4-8 Outlook. Day 4 (Sat) continues risk for Western and Central OK. Day 5 continues risk for Central and Eastern OK - generally east of US 183.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
..SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
ECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OF
WRN U.S. TROUGH. CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG
SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENS
LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
INTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY. INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KT
SHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THEN
EJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARY
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY.

MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY AS
LOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN
KS. MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18Z
SUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT. AS A
RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.

LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO
THE MS VALLEY. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM LA...NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLE
TN. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTOR
CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2014

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

bchris02... IT's still several days out. That map your referring to likely means CRAP!

The moderate risks for today and Saturday that Channel 4 is showing are really agrivating. When I checked the NWS this morning there was no Mod risk for today and Saturday is still in the future outlooks on the SPC site. Channel 4's weather forecast is pretty much useless for the most part. I think they should go off what NWS says since they are the upmost authority on the weather and not go posting there own stuff to just confuse and make people panic and it turn out to be nothing but rain and some small hail. This does nothing but make people more confused and more likely to disregard the weather and it will catch up with them someday.

Nm

The moderate risks for today and Saturday that Channel 4 is showing are really agrivating. When I checked the NWS this morning there was no Mod risk for today and Saturday is still in the future outlooks on the SPC site. Channel 4's weather forecast is pretty much useless for the most part. I think they should go off what NWS says since they are the upmost authority on the weather and not go posting there own stuff to just confuse and make people panic and it turn out to be nothing but rain and some small hail. This does nothing but make people more confused and more likely to disregard the weather and it will catch up with them someday.

I attended a very general severe weather briefing conducted by one of the chief mets from the Norman weather office, and while he was generally positive about NWS relationship with local media, he did point out that each outlet's use of slightly varying terminology for outlooks like this did tend to make things a bit confusing for folks. Frustrating, because the media and NWS have comparable general objectives (warning the public), but differing specific objectives (drawing viewers).

Compounding all this are scenarios like this upcoming weekend, where the model runs continue to seemingly muddy rather than clarify things. That has the unintended consequence of making forecast outlooks across the spectrum (from understating to overstating) just plausible enough.

That one model suggesting the chance of a wave of stuff through central OK on Sunday morning doesn't give me a particularly warm-fuzzy for the marathoners, but its still a few days out..

The moderate risks for today and Saturday that Channel 4 is showing are really agrivating. When I checked the NWS this morning there was no Mod risk for today and Saturday is still in the future outlooks on the SPC site. Channel 4's weather forecast is pretty much useless for the most part. I think they should go off what NWS says since they are the upmost authority on the weather and not go posting there own stuff to just confuse and make people panic and it turn out to be nothing but rain and some small hail. This does nothing but make people more confused and more likely to disregard the weather and it will catch up with them someday.
For those who keep lamenting the local TV mets' hyped forecasts and find them "agrivating" [sic] ... STOP WATCHING THEM!

Bchris02... The majority of tornadoes that touchdown EVERYWHERE are usually EF0-EF3............... You do realize it was 14 years since the last F5 hit moore. That is quite a long time between tornadoes. Don't get me wrong, the odds of an EF-5 hitting a town once is rare but now you act like it will happen every year? CHILL out bud it'll be ok. Please get a underground storm shelter if your that worried.

Bchris02... I don't want to come across as being hateful to your or rude cause i'm actually trying to help man. Just pray about it, i'm sure everything will be fine. Look at it this way, at least it's going to be during the weekend when people can give the majority of there attention to it. I understand there's art festivals and everything but honestly if they know it's coming either have a plan in place if your going to the events or don't go at all. If someone really thinks or has a feeling something is going to happen it's better off to not go because life is more precious than an art festival or other event. Keep an eye to the sky and to this site. Venture, anon, and plenty of other people including me will keep you informed on what's going on, I promise my man.

DPs coming up nicely over the state now, extending well northwest up along dryline.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png

LOL. My teenage daughter said a few weeks ago: "I love tornadic weather." I had to remind her how devastating and awful they are for people impacted by them, but it is a major production here, with chasers, helicopter footage, squawking weathermen and women, beeps on the TV.

She may also like it because we hang tight as a family, have all of our stuff in order, ready to go to the basement, etc. It's an annual event.

When you have a good safety plan, it isn't as frightening and you can channel that adrenaline into studying it and appreciating its magnificence. I suspect she takes a lot of cues from how you approach it, too.

I thought these were good graphics from the NWS in Norman about interpreting severe weather outlooks. Still plenty of time to formulate a plan, just in case. :)

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc1/t1.0-9/10177494_733323503355246_8209630944572894277_n.jpg

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/t1.0-9/10268722_733323506688579_7593700727160328587_n.jpg

60s now creeping up in SW OK. Metro has gone up about 15-20 degrees in DP in the last few hours.

Definitely going to have to watch out west thsi afternoon, could get some more surface based cells going than previously thought.

Well the AM short term models aren't much help right now. They have zero precip forming through midnight. LOL

12Z NAM initiates far SW OK by 4PM. 12Z GFS initiates just west of I-35 at 9PM.

Definitely a nowcasting day. Eeesh.

I'll be in and out of the chat room today - Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html) - until things get cranking for those that want a distraction from work. :)

Getting a bit sticky out there, even with the breeze.

15Z HRRR guidance has initiation around 4PM in the TX PH and then quickly erupting in W OK by 5PM through 6PM. Storm moving into the far west Metro area by 8PM.

HRRR at 6PM...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/15/SGP/hrrrSGP_sfc_radar_008.gif

CH 4 OKC indicated the following:
Today: Storms form west of OK around 4 pm move to western OK at about 5 to 6 pm
Low end tornado threat today for far western and southwestern OK
Storms will arrive in OKC metro area about 8 to 10 pm

Saturday: Strong tornadoes are going to be possible in central Oklahoma.

Hoping for the latter timeframe cause I'm going to attempt the Arts Festival this eve...


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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0386.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231937Z - 232130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK. LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL/MOST PREVALENT SEVERE HAZARD. A WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON /LIKELY PRIOR TO 21Z/.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 995 MB ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO
AS OF 19Z. SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE...AND IN THE WAKE OF
EASTWARD-SPREADING MID-LEVEL CONVECTION/TSTMS...A NORTH-SOUTH
EXTENDING DRY LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN/MIX SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KS AND
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MODEST...BUT 50S/SOME LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MIXING /ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
F/ AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRY LINE...ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
12Z WRF-NSSL...INDICATE THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY AROUND
21Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.

A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO SAMPLED AN
INCREASINGLY MIXED/UNINHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE. LIKELY TIED
TO THE UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A
STRENGTHENING/SLIGHT BACKING OF WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KM AGL WAS NOTED
SINCE THIS MORNING /12Z/.

AS VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT SCENARIO. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST AS WELL...MAINLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS LCL/S LOWER
AND LOW-LEVEL SRH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

SVR T-storm watch coming...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bl7w-xVCIAAL2lL.jpg:large

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0088_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0087.html)...

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
FROM THE W CNTRL TX/THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS NNEWD INTO SW KS...INVOF
DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH AND BENEATH SRN END OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE LIFTING
NNE INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS. AMPLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY APPEAR PRESENT
FOR SUPERCELLS /INCLUDING STORM SPLITS/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND.
SOME RISK ALSO MAY DEVELOP FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER NW
TX...SE PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AND SW OK THIS EVE...WHERE
LLJ WILL DIURNALLY STRENGTHEN AND LOW-LVL MOISTENING WILL PERSIST.
SUCH A THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST IF STORM MODE REMAINS
QUASI-DISCRETE...AND MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE OF PARTS OF THE WATCH TO
TORNADO LATER THIS EVE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

Snapshot of the storms starting to go up.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/23-1.png

Watch until 11PM for the following counties...

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CADDO COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GREER HARMON
HARPER JACKSON KIOWA
MAJOR ROGER MILLS TILLMAN
WA****A WOODS WOODWARD

Just curios.. what does this mean
AROUND 995 MB and how does that affect the storm? Also, I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but what do you do for living? I thought at one time you were a pilot, but I wasn't sure.

Just curios.. what does this mean and how does that affect the storm? Also, I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but what do you do for living? I thought at one time you were a pilot, but I wasn't sure.

That's the pressure of the low pressure system. Like most people see barometers measuring pressure in inches of mercury, millibars is just another way to measure.

Not a pilot. :) I do work in the industry though. I also do PC building/reselling on the side.

Severe storm with monster hail will be near Erick in 45 min and Sayre in about an hour.

Serious storm getting ready to cross the OK border moving towards Erick.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/23-2.png

This morning's GFS had the threat from central OK N & W on Saturday but Sunday the threat looked well east of here, while the Euro slowed way down and had what appeared to be limited forcing Saturday and a washout/squall line possible Sunday. Was hoping to see more consistency by this time (I should know better... lol).

I'm hearing that Sunday's risk now looks like it could be very significant too.

I'm hearing that Sunday's risk now looks like it could be very significant too.

Models are all over the place, so nothing is set by any means for this weekend. Euro is the model to follow but it has gotten a little wonky the last couple of runs. Hoping it gets back to being consistent on the run tonight.

Mike Morgan OKC CH 4 indicates:
A moderate risk for the OKC metro on Sunday that includes the possibility of strong tornadoes.

#OUN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OUN&src=hash) issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Beckham, Greer, Harmon [OK] till 6:00 PM CDT

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/23-3.png

Of course as I write that, the 18Z GFS comes in looking as nasty as ever for Saturday evening.

The NWS map still shows OKC at the very western edge of the severe zone for Sunday. On Saturday its showing western Oklahoma as the focal point but the metro is well within the severe zone.