Why do you say "don't ask"? Why is it ok to give prayer credit when you get the result you want, but when you don't get the result you want then you can't ask why it didn't work?

Simply because it would do no good to ask me, since I would have said, "I don't know".

Your odds in Oklahoma, and more specifically central Oklahoma are exponentially higher than the worldwide risk. Oklahoma county and the surrounding counties see by far the most violent tornadoes on the planet. Nowhere else comes close. That said the mathematical statistics say Moore should be hit every 3000 or so years. However, they were hit in 1998, 1999, 2003, 2010, and 2013. We only have accurate records going back to around 1950 and I would be willing to be the risk is actually much higher than the statistics will say. Oklahoma enjoyed relatively quiet seasons through most of the 1980s and 1990s.
I worry more about the earthquakes leading up to one that sets a new record for strength in Oklahoma than I worry about being impacted by a tornado. But haven't thought of leaving the state.

bchris02 and OKCisOK4me.... Notice I said those are the stats for the entire WORLD. I also stated the odds of a single person being hit by a SIGNIFICANT tornado EF3. If you read the whole post you would've understood better. I didn't say those were only Oklahoma odds :) Also, if you think about it tornados hit every year in the U.S. how many are huge destructive tornados? I believe on average there is one MAYBE two EF4-EF5 tornadoes that hit in the U.S. annually.

12Z ECMWF Discussion

Going forward for right now, I think I'm just going to ignore the GFS until it returns from its crack addiction and gets back in line. It is just jumping around so much from run to run, they almost need to just delete and start over. LOL Euro has been pretty consistent lately and has a done a decent job with overall handling of the last few storm systems to come through (though some issues with timing, but no biggy).

Today - Scattered showers and storms will pop up in daytime heating. Might get some small hail with the strongest ones, but really not a big deal.

Tuesday - Dry.

Wednesday - Line of supercells will develop out west near the TX border by late afternoon and start to slowly march east. Near US 183 by 7PM and into the Western Metro area by 10PM. Storms are forecast to start falling apart by 10PM, so exact impact on the Metro area is uncertain. We'll just have to watch it as we could get one or two long lived strong storms maintain themselves as they go east. Atmosphere will be unstable so severe weather is probable at this point. Very large hail, winds, and also tornadoes are the threats. Tough to pin point exact placement of greatest risk areas right now, so just stay tuned. This will be a chat room day. :)

Thursday / Friday - Generally quiet. We might see something try to go Friday, but it looks really low on the probabilities right now.

Saturday - Big Day #2 as the dryline makes a run for Central OK. By late afternoon Euro has a line of storms from NC OK through the Metro into SW OK. Instability will be high, conditions will be favorable for severe weather, and by all accounts this could be a pretty active day. I'm not about to just chirping major outbreak or anything, just a day to be very weather aware.

Sunday - NWS Norman this morning discussed Sunday being the more active day, but it looks like the Euro has increased the speed a bit of the frontal passage compared to the last run. Not quite ready to rule Sunday out just yet, but most activity looks to be along the dryline in Eastern OK with some residual storms developing along the cold front back through the Metro very late in the day. Let's see how it plays out in upcoming runs before really getting worried about Sunday as well, plus any Saturday activity is going to impact Sunday.

Yes it is...sorry! Normally I label it better. :)

You do fabulous. I'd just hate to sit around all dressed up for a party wondering where the guest of honor was. :)

Keep an eye on Sat/Sun.

It's also starting to look like after this weekend, we will be dealing with an arctic front with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Is it possible we may be looking at another freeze? Does continued arctic fronts this late usually signal a very violent May? I am thinking about 2011 and 2013, both years had near freezing temperatures at the beginning of May and were among the most violent in state history.

It did not get below freezing at my house in North Edmond last time around. I have four different digital thermometers and every one said the lowest it got was 36 and none of my tropical plants were damaged and there are some sensitive plants.

It's also starting to look like after this weekend, we will be dealing with an arctic front with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Is it possible we may be looking at another freeze? Does continued arctic fronts this late usually signal a very violent May? I am thinking about 2011 and 2013, both years had near freezing temperatures at the beginning of May and were among the most violent in state history.

Don't chance it. Better leave now.

Don't chance it. Better leave now.

Okay, that's funny. Beer flew out my nose.

You do fabulous. I'd just hate to sit around all dressed up for a party wondering where the guest of honor was. :)

Hehe. So side note. I got work covered. All prepared for the week of frequent chatting I have a feeling.

Day 2 Outlook for Wednesday from SPC

Eastern extent of the slight risk is just east of Ponca City to Stillwater to Norman to Velma to just east of Waurika.
A 30% hatched area is west of a line from Alva to Weatherford to just west of Grandfield.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MULTIFACETED TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WITH
PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO FOCUS OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...NAM
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
FROM THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SWRN KS/TX PANHANDLE AFTER 21Z. 50KT+ 500MB SPEED MAX IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DRYLINE INTO NWRN OK BY 24/00Z
ENHANCING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

LEE TROUGH WILL BE DISLODGED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WRN
KS...SWD INTO ERN TRANS PECOS OF TX AS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THIS REGION...AIDED BY STRONG HEATING. WHILE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT...PW VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND ONE INCH JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HOLD
IN THE 50S. AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F SFC PARCELS SHOULD
FREELY CONVECT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE. INITIALLY THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY HIGH-BASED BUT LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AS SUBSTANTIAL
SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION. LATEST THINKING
IS SCT SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...SHOULD
EMERGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWD
INTO WRN KS. SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEB. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING
AS STRONG LLJ FOCUSES ACROSS ERN KS INTO SWRN IA.

EWD EXTENT OF THIS DIURNALLY INITIATED CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY
SPREAD TO NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK/KS/NWRN MO/IA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2014

00Z ECMWF Discussion

Tuesday - Quiet still. Enjoy the day!

Wednesday - Severe weather appears likely over western portions of Oklahoma. The eastern extent of convection still seems limited, but a storm making a run on I-35 is still possible. Storm initiation looks like mid afternoon along the dryline in W OK. Initial mode is going going to giant hail as the main threat. Once storms become surface based, a tornado threat will probably develop before transitioning to a wind threat before storms die out.

Thursday - Quiet. Most storms east of OK.

Friday - Very slight chance for some late afternoon storms along I-35 from OKC to the south. Moderate instability could cause a few of the storms to be fairly strong. Not a major day though.

Saturday - Timing of storm development seems to be held back a bit now, but we'll see how it actually plays out. Instability will be high, wind profiles look favorable for rotating storms, so all in all we need to watch how things come together. We could also see storms a bit further west than the I-35 corridor that was originally planned. Again, positioning will work itself out as we get closer. Right now there is consistency of a severe weather event in Oklahoma on Saturday. I would probably a definite Slight Risk day.

Sunday - Mixed signals on Sunday as main batch of energy will eject out over Oklahoma. ECMWF QPF forecast pushes most precip east of the state and instability decreases rapidly through the afternoon as the system pushes through. Keep in mind this is just the operational model I'm reviewing and the ensemble of various members isn't always going to align here. So just mark this down as another to watch.

Monday - Chance for rain/storms in wrap around from weekend storm.

New Day 5 and 6 Outlooks are serious.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF.

EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING. WHILE UPPER BLOCK
OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS...IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MO
THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE
PW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR. LATEST
THINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERN
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO SCNTRL KS
SATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG. IF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRN
TX...NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERN
KS...SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY
MONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUT
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULD
POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2014

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

Thank you Venture... I'm still pretty surprised the SPC has issue that statement for days 4-8. BChris02 and Everyone, things can obviously change but keep an eye out and just be prepared for this weekend. Like I said it's pretty surprising that the SPC issues that far out in advance because predictability is usually too low to predict something like that. Stay calm and just have a plan if you have any activities this weekend.

If confidence is high enough this far out the SPC will go ahead and issue an outlook area, just to give a heads up and give people as much time to get prepared as possible. as well as outline the potential risks. The setup for this weekend looks like it could be pretty significant and as we know most people are ignorant when it comes to weather so this gives us and everyone else 1 more tool to try and get the word out about whats expected for this weekend.

Charlie40.... Correct that's why I mentioned the same exact thing above you lol It's still surprising and not usual considering the storm is still 4-5 days out and hasn't even made land fall yet. Just letting everyone know that the SPC is starting to get serious about this storm and people need to remain calm but keep an eye out if they have any outdoor or travel plans. Looks like I will probably be chasing

I guess it comes down to location. Is this expected to be bullseye over the metro area or a little north or south? Is it too early to say? That makes all the difference when it comes to actual human impact.

Venture, is it too early to panic yet? We don't want to peak too quickly in our hysteria.

Human impact is human impact. A lot of people say "just as long as it doesn't hit the metro it's fine with me". Well in reality when it hits a small town or a mobile home and kills someone it's still a loss of life. It's still to early to tell, and to be honest even if it was the day of the exact science of pinpointing exactly where a tornado will touch down is still unknown. As of now, there is a pretty likely chance of severe weather happening somewhere in the state of Oklahoma. We aren't too sure as of where yet due to the models changing but as its been stated the ECMWF has been pretty consistent. The GFS was bouncing around "on crack" as venture put it lol but is now starting to exhibit the same as the ECMWF model. Somewhere in Western OK will likely see the severe weather fire off along a dry line on Saturday then energy should build back in around I-35 and Eastern OK on Sunday. That is why if you look at the SPC post Venture posted is says multi day severe weather expected on days 5 and 6 (Saturday and Sunday). Also, do not be surprised is some severe weather pops off tomorrow somewhere out west (mostly hail & wind threat). As you probably know, these models will likely change.

Saturday -- stay alert Saturday.

BChris02... Also, Here is some populated areas at risk for the map venture provided via the SPC. Day 5... Oklahoma City, OK, Wichita, KS, Abilene, TX, Norman, OK, and Wichita Falls, TX. Day 6... Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, Kansas City, MO, and Tulsa, OK. Hope this helps, but again that does not mean a tornado will hit any of those areas it's just a potential.

Human impact is human impact. A lot of people say "just as long as it doesn't hit the metro it's fine with me". Well in reality when it hits a small town or a mobile home and kills someone it's still a loss of life. It's still to early to tell, and to be honest even if it was the day of the exact science of pinpointing exactly where a tornado will touch down is still unknown. As of now, there is a pretty likely chance of severe weather happening somewhere in the state of Oklahoma. We aren't too sure as of where yet due to the models changing but as its been stated the ECMWF has been pretty consistent. The GFS was bouncing around "on crack" as venture put it lol but is now starting to exhibit the same as the ECMWF model. Somewhere in Western OK will likely see the severe weather fire off along a dry line on Saturday then energy should build back in around I-35 and Eastern OK on Sunday. That is why if you look at the SPC post Venture posted is says multi day severe weather expected on days 5 and 6 (Saturday and Sunday). Also, do not be surprised is some severe weather pops off tomorrow somewhere out west (mostly hail & wind threat). As you probably know, these models will likely change.

True if it hits anything that's terrible, but if we are going to have a mile-wide EF5 wedge tornado, it's better if it plows through mostly farmland than through densely populated subdivisions. Look at the El Reno tornado on May 31st. Most people don't realize how significant it actually was. Had it touched down in a populated area it would have been a national catastrophe that people would talk about for decades like Hurricane Katrina.

Just to put the other end of the panic spectrum in perspective..... I will be on the water fishing Saturday until I see lightning.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r95a3p8Os-w

One thing to keep in mind is that we have people coming in from literally around the world to participate in the OKC Memorial Marathon this Sunday morning. There are going to be a great many folks who have only a peripheral understanding of the kind of weather being discussed here for the weekend. The run itself is somewhat "protected" (for lack of a better term) because it's in the morning, which is typically a less likely time frame for the really adverse stuff (possible, of course, just less likely), but the concentration of folks downtown for that combined with the Arts Festival could make this weekend particularly troublesome for forecasters and our city guests.

One thing to keep in mind is that we have people coming in from literally around the world to participate in the OKC Memorial Marathon this Sunday morning. There are going to be a great many folks who have only a peripheral understanding of the kind of weather being discussed here for the weekend. The run itself is somewhat "protected" (for lack of a better term) because it's in the morning, which is typically a less likely time frame for the really adverse stuff (possible, of course, just less likely), but the concentration of folks downtown for that combined with the Arts Festival could make this weekend particularly troublesome for forecasters and our city guests.

This could be a worst-case scenario for our city this weekend if it ends up being one of those "top 5%" of severe days and it focuses on the metro area. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

True if it hits anything that's terrible, but if we are going to have a mile-wide EF5 wedge tornado, it's better if it plows through mostly farmland than through densely populated subdivisions. Look at the El Reno tornado on May 31st. Most people don't realize how significant it actually was. Had it touched down in a populated area it would have been a national catastrophe that people would talk about for decades like Hurricane Katrina.

Okay...

One thing to keep in mind is that we have people coming in from literally around the world to participate in the OKC Memorial Marathon this Sunday morning. There are going to be a great many folks who have only a peripheral understanding of the kind of weather being discussed here for the weekend. The run itself is somewhat "protected" (for lack of a better term) because it's in the morning, which is typically a less likely time frame for the really adverse stuff (possible, of course, just less likely), but the concentration of folks downtown for that combined with the Arts Festival could make this weekend particularly troublesome for forecasters and our city guests.
Good points. I'd wondered if they were warning so far ahead because it hit a weekend when so many people's plans are less predictable than during the M-F workweek but didn't consider those. With those events, things get hairier in terms of taking proper precautions. If we have people coming to town, we need to get them up to speed on safety matters. Unfortunately, that is going to freak people out when the local channels talk about it and we all know that.

Okay...

What's incorrect about what I said? I know I'm not the most liked poster around here but I would appreciate if you (and others) would refrain from insulting me unless I say something that warrants being insulted for.

http://www.buzzle.com/img/articleImages/556503-936-19.jpg

This could be a worst-case scenario for our city this weekend if it ends up being one of those "top 5%" of severe days and it focuses on the metro area. Hopefully it doesn't happen.


True if it hits anything that's terrible, but if we are going to have a mile-wide EF5 wedge tornado, it's better if it plows through mostly farmland than through densely populated subdivisions. Look at the El Reno tornado on May 31st. Most people don't realize how significant it actually was. Had it touched down in a populated area it would have been a national catastrophe that people would talk about for decades like Hurricane Katrina.


What's incorrect about what I said? I know I'm not the most liked poster around here but I would appreciate if you (and others) would refrain from insulting me unless I say something that warrants being insulted for.
Perhaps it's the constant Chicken-Little hyperbole, especially when the evidence points to the contrary, that so many are reacting to...

What's incorrect about what I said? I know I'm not the most liked poster around here but I would appreciate if you (and others) would refrain from insulting me unless I say something that warrants being insulted for.

Bchris, I am one who has taken up for you - not sure you saw that. Yes, it could be bad - very bad - but your posts repeatedly envision apocalyptic outcomes and you are so wed to your fear that it is hard to even know how to respond other than what has already been posted. My "okay" is more along the lines of my personally coming to the realization that you aren't looking for anything more than expressing angst. Nothing anyone has offered seems to help and it is likely something you are either going to have to work through, emotionally, or you're going to make yourself sick/leave the area. Best case scenario, you study and learn as a result of your fear and that helps you to enjoy Brother Wind rather than fear him.

I apologize for offending you but defending your comments because they are true has turned into the meteorological equivalent of Aunt Letitia nonstop saying that she, and all her family, are going to die from cancer, heart disease or stroke , with the only difference being she is probably correct. That doesn't make it any healthier. No one who comes to these weather threads is unaware of what tornadoes can do and have done. That doesn't mean they panic over it and I hope you reach a place where it is just something you plan for.

I understand being fearful because I also went through that. And I know that everyone is different in how they conquer it, if they do. Still, I'd be terrified of oncoming traffic - with good reason - if I didn't learn to relax but keep alert. Dealing with Severe weather is a lot like that.

I guess it comes down to location. Is this expected to be bullseye over the metro area or a little north or south? Is it too early to say? That makes all the difference when it comes to actual human impact.

Is it to early to say? It's 4 days out, what do you think? Seriously, make an educated guess. Do you think it's too early to say where the "bullseye" will be 4 days out? Come on man.

Wednesday could be a sleeper if we get some better moisture return the next 24 hours.

Saturday into Sunday looks interesting; however, I have a feeling we could see a nocturnal event in the timing of the low. Again this can change, but nocturnal supercells are crazy.

There is no reason to try and pinpoint bullseyes and population impacts 4 days out, we won't have a good idea until morning of the event. By Friday, we should at least have a weak idea on setup. Right now it is looking like classic dryline supercell machine, still curious on the timing of intiation etc, though.

Bchris, I am one who has taken up for you - not sure you saw that. Yes, it could be bad - very bad - but your posts repeatedly envision apocalyptic outcomes and you are so wed to your fear that it is hard to even know how to respond other than what has already been posted. My "okay" is more along the lines of my personally coming to the realization that you aren't looking for anything more than expressing angst. Nothing anyone has offered seems to help and it is likely something you are either going to have to work through, emotionally, or you're going to make yourself sick/leave the area. Best case scenario, you study and learn as a result of your fear and that helps you to enjoy Brother Wind rather than fear him.

I apologize for offending you but defending your comments because they are true has turned into the meteorological equivalent of Aunt Letitia nonstop saying that she, and all her family, are going to die from cancer, heart disease or stroke , with the only difference being she is probably correct. That doesn't make it any healthier. No one who comes to these weather threads is unaware of what tornadoes can do and have done. That doesn't mean they panic over it and I hope you reach a place where it is just something you plan for.

I understand being fearful because I also went through that. And I know that everyone is different in how they conquer it, if they do. Still, I'd be terrified of oncoming traffic - with good reason - if I didn't learn to relax but keep alert. Dealing with Severe weather is a lot like that.

A+.

Certainly a bad weekend for this to be playing out in terms of outdoor events (marathon, Arts Festival, and Norman Music Festival), though it's not like there's ever a good time for a severe weather outbreak. For all we know the metro may not even see rain those days (not that a total rain-free day is likely, just that even on 'bad' days storms can often be quite isolated).

I guess it comes down to location. Is this expected to be bullseye over the metro area or a little north or south? Is it too early to say? That makes all the difference when it comes to actual human impact.Human impact?
At some point we are all going to die........................ and when we do, the world will go on quite nicely.

Wednesday could be a sleeper if we get some better moisture return the next 24 hours.

Saturday into Sunday looks interesting; however, I have a feeling we could see a nocturnal event in the timing of the low. Again this can change, but nocturnal supercells are crazy.

There is no reason to try and pinpoint bullseyes and population impacts 4 days out, we won't have a good idea until morning of the event. By Friday, we should at least have a weak idea on setup. Right now it is looking like classic dryline supercell machine, still curious on the timing of intiation etc, though.

How do nighttime supercells compare? If the dryline sets up out around the 100th meridian, could that mean more of a squall line for central Oklahoma?

How do nighttime supercells compare? If the dryline sets up out around the 100th meridian, could that mean more of a squall line for central Oklahoma?

Well depending on initiation timing in the afternoon-to-evening hours. Then the parameters after the sun sets. If there is enough favorable sheer and the storms remain isolated, we could have multiple supercells tracking after dark. This is extremely conditional, though. Storms could go linear from the start and we could be looking at a severe wind event anyways. Again this type of stuff is nearly impossible to forecast this far out. I am only speculating on timing to indicate whether the event would take place into the dark hours or not (mostly as activity would approach C OK).

Well depending on initiation timing in the afternoon-to-evening hours. Then the parameters after the sun sets. If there is enough favorable sheer and the storms remain isolated, we could have multiple supercells tracking after dark. This is extremely conditional, though. Storms could go linear from the start and we could be looking at a severe wind event anyways. Again this type of stuff is nearly impossible to forecast this far out. I am only speculating on timing to indicate whether the event would take place into the dark hours or not (mostly as activity would approach C OK).

Doesn’t the low level jet sometimes ramp up in a stronger way after dark thus feeding an isolated nocturnal storm and helping it to rotated?

Some of the CIPS analogs calculated for both Saturday and Sunday are pretty scary and include some big dates. Just one tool, though.

Doesn’t the low level jet sometimes ramp up in a stronger way after dark thus feeding an isolated nocturnal storm and helping it to rotated?

Yes, this is called backed winds. Which are very common (even likely) shortly after sunset, resulting in enhanced rotation for a time period in which storms could still be ongoing. The general thinking is the vertical windshear is increased as surface winds decelerate.

Again, not trying to stray the topic into this being an overnight event, but it is something to be aware of, given the timing of the storm system and the very unstable conditions it will be moving into.

ANON... I definitely agree. I guess we'll see on the next few models

Yes, this is called backed winds. Which are very common (even likely) shortly after sunset, resulting in enhanced rotation for a time period in which storms could still be ongoing. The general thinking is the vertical windshear is increased as surface winds decelerate.

Again, not trying to stray the topic into this being an overnight event, but it is something to be aware of, given the timing of the storm system and the very unstable conditions it will be moving into.
Thanks Anonymous.
That type of information is one of the things I love about these threads.
Meteorology has come a long way since 1980 when I had my last Met class.

KFOR TV CH 4 OKC at noon indicates:
Severe weather western OK Wednesday. A few tornadoes are possible mostly in NW OK

Saturday: Severe weather is likely.... It's a classic set up....
Expect the outlook to be upgraded to moderate risk, with the possibility of a High Risk outlook being issued.


KWTV CH 9 OKC at noon indicates:
Severe WX on Wednesday... tornado zone is western ¼ of state and the western parts of north central OK
The OKC area might have 2 round of storms with one round late in the evening and then another over night.

“Big weather day on Saturday”

I would assume with the info we have as of right now they are correct.

Is it to early to say? It's 4 days out, what do you think? Seriously, make an educated guess. Do you think it's too early to say where the "bullseye" will be 4 days out? Come on man.Just a question: can you make one post without criticizing someone?

If you are tired of Bchris being worried about tornados, how about you post something constructive instead of posting un-useful garbage. It's better to try and work with people about their problems rather than just telling them to make an educated guess.

I'm getting pretty darn excited about Saturday.

I know I sound like a sicko. It's an okie thing.

Plutonic Panda... Thank you!! Every time he decides to post something on this blog its hateful he's just a huge troll. Bchris02 don't listen to OKCBoomer.

I'm getting pretty darn excited about Saturday.

I know I sound like a sicko. It's an okie thing.

This is how you can tell a born and bred okie from a transplant. True Okies are like BBQ above who says he is going fishing Saturday and will not come ashore until he sees lighting. It's understandable that somebody born and bred here will laugh at somebody who thinks about fleeing the state when a tornado outbreak is predicted. It's the mindset here. I also doubt the people living at the base of Mt Vesuvius in Italy give much thought to the possibility of it erupting and wiping Naples off the map. To others though, those possibilities are terrifying. Given how prone Central Oklahoma is to violent, long-track tornadoes even people used to living with tornadoes can be a little terrified about the weather here.

Wednesday could be a sleeper if we get some better moisture return the next 24 hours.

Saturday into Sunday looks interesting; however, I have a feeling we could see a nocturnal event in the timing of the low. Again this can change, but nocturnal supercells are crazy.

There is no reason to try and pinpoint bullseyes and population impacts 4 days out, we won't have a good idea until morning of the event. By Friday, we should at least have a weak idea on setup. Right now it is looking like classic dryline supercell machine, still curious on the timing of intiation etc, though.

Nocturnal tornadoes freak me out. Good thing it's a weekend so we can stay up late monitoring the situation if need be.

Plutonic Panda... Thank you!! Every time he decides to post something on this blog its hateful he's just a huge troll. Bchris02 don't listen to OKCBoomer.

Noted and reported.

At this point, I think you are actually just pulling our collective legs.

Yep, and for whatever reason very few can see that.

First and foremost - tomorrow. Going to try to get a bit more long winded and detailed as we are 24 hours out now. This is going to be a blend of the 3 operational NAM, GFS, and ECMWF models instead of focusing on just one solution at a time. Sure the weekend might be the bigger story, but let's get back to one day at a time. :)

Moisture return should kick in later tonight as the winds become more from the SE to help get some gulf moisture back in here. However, we are still looking at dews only approaching the mid 50s by showtime in the far west. Dews will continue to increase through the evening as we get into the low 60s and with that instability will also increase. Dryline positioning looks to be set among the 3 models in this review. The rough position of it will be somewhere from Dodge City to Pampa to Sweetwater - all west of OK - by 7PM. It likely won't move into the state until late in the evening/overnight . We are probably going to see the cold front catch up/overtake the dryline through most of Oklahoma going into early Thursday - blasting through by Thursday afternoon.

Instability will peak by late afternoon along the dryline. Looking at CAPE values at or above 2000 j/kg in spots and this instability will fade some overnight as the boundaries progress across the state. In short, there will be some support for storms to continue through the night but overall the severity will likely go down. As we get into the evening the LLJ kicks in and we'll see winds start to back some ahead of the dryline/front and this might provide a better window for a tornado threat. Increasing in low level moisture will also help, but LCLs are still looking to be pretty elevated even getting into the late evening hours. If we look at the forecast soundings using the NAM for various points along the dryline, we are seeing LCLs around the 700-750 mb level and getting into the night time they are only dropping to the high 700s or low 800s. That is going to be really tough to overcome for any surface-based storm to get established and spin anything up. Tomorrow might be more of a high-based giant hail producers that are pretty photogenic - unless they are over your house.

Should moisture return be greater than initially forecast and we can get the LCLs down to mid/upper 800s, then we might be talking more of a tornado threat.

Storm evolution is going to be pretty classic for us. Initially we'll see supercells pop along the dryline. Into the evening as the cold front overtakes the dryline, we'll see the storms undercut and going linear in fashion pretty darn quickly. This should pull us out of the hail threat and into a damaging wind threat.

So tomorrow. Severe threat is likely. Main risks are large hail early going to winds later. Tornado threat is there, but low right now due not enough quality and depth of moisture for these storms to play in. Time line for OKC is going to be late evening to the overnight the way it appears right now. Disagreements exist on where precip will actually fall, but I'm not really going to worry about that. If we get a couple significant supercells that decide to do their own thing, then there isn't much we can do to forecast that ahead of time.

Here is a forecast sounding for the OKC area very late tomorrow about the time storms are moving through. You will see LCLs are down into the mid 800s by this time and the environment would be favorable for rotating storms, but it all depends if anything is even going or near by at this time. the CAP will begin strengthening and CIN will be back up. However, if we have a broken line or a tail-end charlie scenario, there is always a chance - so I don't want to completely ignore the possibility...even though it is low.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_NAM_042_35.1,-97.79_skewt_ML.gif

Thanks Venture. I finally started following this thread. Glad I found it. :)

I have some preliminary plans to visit the Arts Festival tomorrow in the late afternoon/early evening. I'm hoping if these storms happen here they happen later. That sounds like what you're saying, but I may just be getting hopeful.

I have some preliminary plans to visit the Arts Festival tomorrow in the late afternoon/early evening. I'm hoping if these storms happen here they happen later. That sounds like what you're saying, but I may just be getting hopeful.

That's accurate. :) Unless the dryline marches east really fast, I don't see anything in here in the afternoon and probably not until late evening.

Noted and reported.Report all you want. I have not seen you do anything but troll. Every post I've seen by you, you have added absolutely nothing to the conversation except attacking and making fun of people.

Discussion for Saturday/Sunday

Moisture return kicks in on Friday with dews getting back into the mid 50s. There might be a stray storm on Friday late, but nothing that should amount to much. GFS is flat out insane on moisture return on Saturday. 70 degree dews up into NW OK. 70 degree dews in April? I'm not sold. Dryline setups up by mid afternoon just inside Oklahoma out west, say around the first column of counties. Warm front will be north of the state, so the entire area will be in the warm sector. Surface low will be back over Eastern CO. Most of the positioning is in agreement with ECMWF, but the Euro isn't quite as intense with moisture return in NW OK and is a bit further NW with the low center. The dryline isn't really going to move a ton on Saturday. There might be a bulge on it near the Red River, which can help with focused storm development. GFS has the dryline just west of I-35 by 1PM on Sunday. Euro is faster than this and has the dryline around a Coffeyville/Tulsa/Dallas line by 1PM. We are talking roughly a 100 mile difference in the forecast between the two. So if we split the difference we are looking at it being around a Pawhuska/Stillwater/Norman/Duncan line by 1PM. This is obviously something that has to be resolved in order to determine the main risks for Sunday. I know there is a lot of chatter about Sunday being a major day or even the biggest day in this series, but all too often the previous day can play havoc with the "big day" setup. I'm not as enthused about the prospects of Sunday when it deals with the impacts on the Metro. Now let me also say this could be a nonstop even that continues through Saturday evening and overnight, so there might not be a break in anything.

So those are the boundaries. Looking at the environment itself Saturday has an extremely unstable atmosphere. We are talking LI's in the -9 to -12 range for most of the body of the state except for the SE quarter. Surface based CAPE values are just in the extreme category going by the GFS - up to 4000 j/kg for the around along and to the NW of I-35 and I-44. Euro is a bit further west with the best instability but is still kicking out values at or above 2500 j/kg for much of NW and W OK. Here is a forecast sounding for 4PM near the Weatherford/Clinton area...which is in the middle of the bulk of the instability.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_105_35.49,-98.52_skewt_SB.gif

So looking at this the one thing that stands out is not the best directional shear with surface winds mostly South, we normally want to see SE for better directional shear but this really isn't terrible for tornado production. Movement on the storms look good for tracking purposes - only about 30-35 mph heading to the NE - as usual. LCLs are a tad high, but not terrible in the low 800s. Cap is almost nothing. The indices to also look at for severe weather - LI, SI, TT, KI, SW, and EI are well in place for higher end severe weather. So really, the conditions are there - but we know it isn't that simple.

Initiation per GFS has storms starting along the dryline by 4PM generally along US 183 moving to the east slowly and getting into the Metro by early to mid evening. It then settles things down overnight and initiates convection again on Sunday nearly right along or just east of I-35 and keeps it mostly stationary through early evening. If we look at the Euro's solution it has storms popping in NW OK by 4PM and then along 183 by 7PM...so about 3 hours later than GFS. It brings storms in overnight into the early morning over I-35. On Sunday it doesn't have any precip forecast in the state after the morning convection. So this is the confusing part on why people are building up Sunday so much unless they are just going to discount the QPF forecasts of the model. My dilema is that GFS has been such utter crap for the last several runs that now people are all jumping on it. Yes it has come into agree with Euro in many aspects, but does that mean we automatically start dismissing Euro for Sunday now? I'm wouldn't think so. Now if GFS starts to get some consistency, then we'll need to pay attention.

Still a lot of questions on timing in my mind for the weekend. It looks like it could be a pretty big day (or days), but it just isn't there yet to really pinpoint who is getting what and when.

Yep, and for whatever reason very few can see that.Perhaps you just can't see that some people have severe weather anxiety.

Thanks Venture. I finally started following this thread. Glad I found it. :)

Welcome! I'll be cross posting more and more with Facebook/Twitter with these bigger events so I don't miss anyone. :)