Itty bitty bits of snow and 90's is the same week? Yeah, it's Oklahoma. I can buy that.that's awesome

Short term severe risk...

Today, Sunday, and Monday look like days with very low severe risks. Storms are possible tomorrow over much of the state and then the eastern half on Monday. Instability just won't be there and the main ingredients will be down in Texas both days.

Rest of the week...

Tuesday - Quiet

Wednesday - SPC has a 30% risk area out on the Day 5 map for Western OK, and other areas of the high plains. We've been talking about it for awhile, but models are just crap from run to run and GFS and Euro never want to agree for more than a run. Wednesday appears to have CAPEs pushing near 2000 j/kg over W OK and CIN will decrease enough by late afternoon to allow for some isolated storms to form. Dryline should remain well out into the PHs, likely staying around or just east of I-27. Moisture looks good with dews into the low 60s possible. Moderate cap will exist though, which is why things should stay isolated. Tornado threat looks low with very elevated LCLs but the other indices show conditions would be favorable for severe storms with likely some very large hail.

Thursday - Chance for severe weather remains. GFS is up to speed with previous EMWCF runs having the main risk area to the east of I-35 and south of I-40. We'll see if this timing remains for a few more runs or if it will bounce around some more.

Friday - Slight chance for some lingering storms over the Red River counties east of I-35.

Saturday - Severe risk increases over the SW 1/2 of OK. GFS has a very unstable atmosphere ahead of the next system coming through and storms popping by late afternoon in SW OK. Setup looks good for all modes of severe weather, but this is a week out too. It'll change.

Sunday - Storm system start to move out into the Plains a bit more. Instability builds/remains over much of Oklahoma except for NE and far East Central OK. Precip forecast show widespread heavy rain, but again - we are really far out and confidence in thsi is slow. Like Saturday, ingredients are there for severe weather.

Extended Storm Outlook...

Tuesday 29th - Slight chance of storm Central & East. Rain North.

Wednesday 30th - Chance of rain, storm chances low.

Thursday May 1st - Dry - mostly.

Wednesday May 2nd - Dry.

Thursday May 3rd - Dry.

Friday May 4th - Chance of storms, statewide.

Now I will put the above with the level of confidence around 1%. Seriously. Regardless of it being so far out, the forecast has literally been changing run to run. So take it with a dump truck load of salt, if there is any left after winter, when looking at this forecast.

12Z Euro isn't all that far off from the GFS through the first half of this coming week. It builds instability back in on Friday much quicker and also fairly unstable on Saturday and Sunday as well. Chance of storms each day, but we'll worry about specifics if we see this continue to develop.

Climatologically speaking, we are heading into peak season. Things typically get busy from here through May. It has been a very quiet year so far and I expect it to increase and get back on track somewhat. Signs are there we are going to head into a much more active pattern soon - we'll see if it happens.

Hopefully it does. We need the rain... I just hope we don't have a quite season then have a cool wet summer.

Don't forget...we could still get some more snow. I am sure most of you remember March 29-30, 1951.

Models predicting more liquid over the next 2 days. Looks like potentially up to an inch over a large area of the state. Some of this will be in form of thunderstorms, though. So local amounts higher.

Next two days generally unstable as mentioned earlier this week.

00Z GFS definitely kicking things up pretty good for the next week or more. At least the chat room is setup for the most part 24 hrs a day now. LOL

I'm beat right now, worked all day, work again tomorrow morning. So I'll try to do a new outlook tomorrow evening when I get home.

Slight Risk today was extended north a tad into far SW OK. Main risk hail and wind.

Yea latest GFS pretty much gives a shot at precip. almost every day this week.

If clouds erode over SW OK by later today, could see a few storms try to make a show.

Nice precip bulb of moderate rain and embedded thunderstorms moving up into SW OK. Looks to be taking aim at SC OK. Maybe clip C OK if it continues to evolve north.


Looks like some purer thunderstorms popping in extreme SW/W OK.

Decent little meso in the storm moving into Harmon County. 2" hail reports coming from this storm.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/20-1.png

Spotter confirmed tornado with the storm just across the border in Childress County.

Warning out finally...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HARMON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...


* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 555 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRKLAND...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.


HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

4 Box image... Base Reflectivity, Base Velocity on the top...and then Max Hail size and NROT on the bottom.

Some monster hail possible with this thing.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/20-2.png

Is this coming to OKC?

Is this coming to OKC?

Nope, staying in SW OK and probably die down there.

Might get another spin up where the red dot is.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/20-3.png

So is the metro getting passed over as far as precip goes?

We'll probably have some light precip from the left overs of the storms, but I'm not holding out high hopes for much.

2nd supercell developing behind the initial one and it has decent rotation with it as well.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/20-4.png

So is the metro getting passed over as far as precip goes?

As the NWS forecast puts it for Oklahoma City, a 60% chance for showers for tonight and Monday and then 40% chance of thunderstorms for Monday night before 8pm.

Likely another tornado warning coming out soon in Northern TX north of Kirkland about 9 miles to the south of the OK border.

Golf balls to the NE of Eldorado in Jackson County.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/20-5.png

Mike Morgan is starting to hype a potential significant outbreak next Friday-Sunday. He says that Wednesday will mostly be a western Oklahoma event. I know its still a week out, but is this weekend looking like a cause for concern?

Mike Morgan is starting to hype a potential significant outbreak next Friday-Sunday. He says that Wednesday will mostly be a western Oklahoma event. I know its still a week out, but is this weekend looking like a cause for concern?

Last few runs have been hinting at that yes. I'll do an outlook later tonight.

Ch 5 KOCO TV at 10 pm talked about the possibility of “big tornadoes" this next weekend.

I have the feeling this weekend is going to be a PDS watch outbreak, similar to May 20, 2013 or May 31, 2013. I am going to watch closely but may make plans to leave the state.

I have the feeling this weekend is going to be a PDS watch outbreak, similar to May 20, 2013 or May 31, 2013. I am going to watch closely but may make plans to leave the state.

LOL, just LOL.

I have the feeling this weekend is going to be a PDS watch outbreak, similar to May 20, 2013 or May 31, 2013. I am going to watch closely but may make plans to leave the state.


You clearly have an issue with severe weather that predated last year's storms. That's not a knock, one of my grandmothers had her crops (not her home) destroyed by a tornado as a young girl and she simply couldn't deal with them from then on. (Unfortunately, when she older she went to an outdoor storm shelter with my grandfather and there was was a snake in it! So she spent her time there wondering whether the snake or tornado would get her!) When I was young, she freaked me out anytime one was coming (of course, we never actually had one anywhere near us but that was the 70's and early 80's!).

Because the possibility of these storms clearly frightens you, please tell us that you have found a shelter close that you have access to? If not, please find one. With today's technology, you can stay safe if you have a plan. Please make a plan! You don't need a week to plan and worry for severe storms if you have a place to go. You worry, if at all, when they are 20 minutes away and coming your direction on the radar (thought it will still likely miss you).

You have great, knowledgeable people here that you devote their time to put people on notice. You clearly read what they say or you wouldn't be here. Maybe you should just stop listening to the TV news until something is actually coming your way? If you are going to come here to get forecasts for next week why are you listening to someone who you know wants to scare you?

In any event, please stop doing that which Venture rightfully despises and comparing the potential to days past!

I have the feeling this weekend is going to be a PDS watch outbreak, similar to May 20, 2013 or May 31, 2013. I am going to watch closely but may make plans to leave the state.

If you're not an atheist, pray to God during a tornado warning asking for Him to make the tornado lift back into the clouds or bypass your area. It's worked for me a couple of times and helped bring me some peace and comfort while waiting for the tornado warning to expire. At least one of my friends does the same thing. Don't ask why it didn't work, if plenty of people in Moore were praying during their tornado warning last year.

I lived in SE OKC in 1999 and was barely missed by the May 3rd, 1999 tornado, saw it out my back window and how my house/yard covered in debris. Fortunately I wasn't in the direct path. People said it was a once-per-century event. I moved away from Oklahoma a couple of years later but moved back in 2012, so my first season back was 2013. Since then I've also read about the outbreaks on May 24, 2011 and the 2010 outbreak. Those types of events happen almost every year and it's just shear luck that more of them don't occur in populated areas like the Moore tornado last year. The El Reno tornado on May 31 could have been a disaster of biblical proportions had it occurred a few miles east, as if the Moore tornado on May 20th wasn't already terrible enough. Living in central Oklahoma in the springtime really feels like playing russian roulette.

The fact KOCO is already hyping this is a sign that it may be serious. Damon Lane is generally quite a bit calmer than Morgan or Payne.

We've been down this road before. Relax. Nothing this weekend is set. GFS tonight has been mixing things up again. If you follow this thread and the chat room, nothing should sneak up on you. Especially with the media overload in coverage here. There are too many knowledgeable people that contribute to this forum now to let anything get by. This weekend might be a bit challenging for me as I have to work, but I'm going to try to get it off - but I also kinda need to pay the bills. LOL Thankfully I'm not the only contributor. :)

If you seriously freak out this bad during the Spring, it might be time to seek some therapy. I've been in those situations driving down the road following a tornado having debris fall on my car. Don't for a minute think that I don't take pause in understand what is falling down from the sky. Does it mean I'm going to fear it? Nope. It drives me more to respect it and learn more. Sure I've hung up my chasing cap a few years ago, but that's because I don't enjoy sitting in traffic jams of chasers. However, I also find the value in tracking it live and discussing it in real time with people who have a similar interest. I would invite you to join the chats during the severe weather and take away some better understanding on what is happening. When I can I'll have the live streaming radar and such going and provide real time explanations regarding it. The best way to overcome a fear is to learn more about it. The door is open.

I lived in SE OKC in 1999 and was barely missed by the May 3rd, 1999 tornado, saw it out my back window and how my house/yard covered in debris. Fortunately I wasn't in the direct path. People said it was a once-per-century event. I moved away from Oklahoma a couple of years later but moved back in 2012, so my first season back was 2013. Since then I've also read about the outbreaks on May 24, 2011 and the 2010 outbreak. Those types of events happen almost every year and it's just shear luck that more of them don't occur in populated areas like the Moore tornado last year. The El Reno tornado on May 31 could have been a disaster of biblical proportions had it occurred a few miles east, as if the Moore tornado on May 20th wasn't already terrible enough. Living in central Oklahoma in the springtime really feels like playing russian roulette.

The fact KOCO is already hyping this is a sign that it may be serious. Damon Lane is generally quite a bit calmer than Morgan or Payne.

Again, do you have a plan? If so, and if it becomes necessary, execute the plan. If not, especially after your past involvement, make a plan. It really doesn't matter what may or may not happen. If it happens, and if it happens close to you (2 totally different things), execute your plan. Worrying a week in advance will not assist you. If you have a place to get under ground or in a shelter what do you have to worry about?

You know that Venture, Anon, etc are going to post what is likely to happen days out and they are going to keep you advised of what might occur. Even if you avoid the TV in the days leading up you will know what to prepare for. You really don't need to prepare for it a week ahead of time, if you have a plan.

I've lived here my entire life (44 years) and never seen a tornado. I do have a garage shelter and I keep it cleaned out but I don't think about needing it until the DAY of the storm and only then when or if something is actually moving my way.

Man, can't buy a couple drops here in C OK with any of these precip shields.

Some places in extreme SW OK got over 3 inches of rain with training storms.

General W and SC OK got about 3 to 4 tenths.

Storm Outlook

Okay I'll preface this by saying, ECMWF and GFS are still reenacting West Side Story when it comes to giving solutions for the upcoming week. Nothing is set in stone even though various local media heads will throw things out there. A lot of this is due to personal preference to one model or the other and their respective solutions/ensembles. Here I'll just present the solutions as usual and we can see how they unfold. Will there be severe weather in Oklahoma this week? Yes. There could be multiple events and one of them significant. However, pinpointing it right now just isn't logical.

Monday
Risk mainly in TX or near the Red River. SPC forecast covers it fine and we likely won't see much than a passing shower or storm for most of OK.

Wednesday
First day of more prominent severe weather threats this week.
Euro - Focus of instability will be west of I-35 with CAPE values at or above 2000 j/kg. Dryline will probably be near the OK/TX PH border out west. Precip should start to pop along the dryline by late afternoon and storms will gradually move east. Conditions favorable for all modes of severe weather. Storms will likely be near C OK by 11PM to 1AM, but could very well be dying out by then.
GFS - Dryline out west forming up by late afternoon/early evening. Could see several supercells going at this time before slowly dying out. All modes of severe weather possible.
NAM - Storm pop on the dryline out west by mid-late afternoon. These will shift east some before weakening as they approach I-35. Giant hail and tornadoes are possible with this activity.

Thursday
Euro - Mostly dry, maybe a lingering shower/storm far east. Atmosphere will be very unstable early but that will quickly get pushed off to the southeast.
GFS - Dry. Front blasts through by mid day and clear Oklahoma, mostly, and keeps risk of any storms to a min.
NAM - Storm system blows through Oklahoma quick and is by most of the state, leaving a risk to far SE OK.

Friday
Euro - Line of storms will form by late afternoon/early evening over Central 1/3rd of OK. Appears there will be high to very high instability in the area for when these storms pop. Does appear all modes of severe possible with this.
GFS - Chance of storms mainly south of I-40 and east of I-44. Should get going by mid afternoon. Instability will be there but vertical wind profiles not the best for rotating storms. Not ruling them out this far out though.

Saturday
Euro - Highest instability along and west of I-35. Some areas could be pushing well over 3500 j/kg in the CAPE department. Appears storms will fire along the dryline in W OK by late afternoon and N along the cold front. Could see storms hold together through the evening and early night as they approach Central OK.
GFS - Chance of storms SW moving into Central OK afternoon. Wind profile is great with directional shear, so large hail or tornado threat will likely existing.

Sunday
Euro - Severe risk shifts east of I-35 with a chance of storms popping by late afternoon over in that area.
GFS - Mostly dry.

Extended Outlook - Next chance of storms coming up between May 3rd and May 8th. We'll see how those work out later.

I have the feeling this weekend is going to be a PDS watch outbreak, similar to May 20, 2013 or May 31, 2013. I am going to watch closely but may make plans to leave the state.

This is parody, right? Dude, you have, ( by orders of magnitude) much higher chances of getting yourself killed fleeing the state than you have of getting hit at any one point, even during a PDS outbreak.

Before I started reading here, I had only heard about cases of storm fear as acute as yours. One of my great grand-aunts was in a tornado that hit somewhere in Texas, and just knew she was gonna die in a tornado. When one hit Dallas in spring of 1960 (MILES from her home), she worked herself up into such a state that she had a massive coronary and died in the ER. I don't know if that got counted as a storm fatality or not, but she terrified herself to death.

You need to stand out in front of the next Xanax front that blows through town and I say this with all respect. The odds are just really low you'll meet your demise by tornado.

I have the feeling this weekend is going to be a PDS watch outbreak, similar to May 20, 2013 or May 31, 2013. I am going to watch closely but may make plans to leave the state.

Dude, I'm not at all trying to be sarcastic, or rude, or unfeeling, but in all seriousness....if you're that worried, and that worry to me seems to border on hysteria, you need to leave the state. Seriously. If you're in a situation where your emotions are that far ahead of your intellect, Oklahoma isn't the right place for you to live.

You were almost in May 3, except you weren't. The El Reno tornado could have been a "disaster of biblical proportions," and while it was bad, it wasn't biblical disaster bad - and we all know what mitigating circumstances made the situation even worse as the storm approached OKC.

My friend, I'm begging you, unless you're just a world-class gagster and posting things like this just to get responses because perhaps it gives you a giggle, get some help. Get your spirit at peace. "Give no thought for tomorrow, for sufficient in the day are the cares therein." Worrying to the point of hysteria doesn't change one fraction of where or what kind or even if storms are going to happen. When you toss around phrases like "I think its going to be a PDS watch," you're saying things that clearly show you're overdriving your headlights in not fully understanding what those things actually mean.

Some folks develop a sense of notion that they like to be worried, which escapes me, because it just destroys your life. Don't be that person. Keep aware of what's going on, but live your life. Don't let the weather, or the risk of adverse weather, become your life. And if it weren't for weather, would you start worrying about the risk of car accidents, plane crashes, random violence (all of which happen worldwide on a daily basis)?

I'm trying as best I can to offer this as a friend, obviously behind the wall of the Internet, but please consider where this anxiety and worry is coming from, and think about what's really going on in your life. I want you to have some joy, not perpetually lament about what's past, nor worry about what's to come. You can do exactly nothing to prevent or undo either. Do you have any kind of church affiliation? Do you pray, or have any faith of anything beyond a weather forecast? Think about it, and I pray you'll find that peace that helps you put things like Oklahoma's severe weather season - through which I've lived 46 of my 49 years - in proper perspective.

Peace, my friend. Peace.

Bunty... Amen Brother

I have the feeling this weekend is going to be a PDS watch outbreak, similar to May 20, 2013 or May 31, 2013. I am going to watch closely but may make plans to leave the state.

At this point, I think you are actually just pulling our collective legs.

If you're not an atheist, pray to God during a tornado warning asking for Him to make the tornado lift back into the clouds or bypass your area. It's worked for me a couple of times and helped bring me some peace and comfort while waiting for the tornado warning to expire. At least one of my friends does the same thing. Don't ask why it didn't work, if plenty of people in Moore were praying during their tornado warning last year.

Why do you say "don't ask"? Why is it ok to give prayer credit when you get the result you want, but when you don't get the result you want then you can't ask why it didn't work?

A prayer may not save your life on earth.... but it's never wrong to find comfort in prayer...
We are all going to die someday? In many cases we have some control on delaying death by making smart choices in our life.
I believe god want's us to make smart and reasonable choices for our self's.

Folks should be logical about the threats they face. Compared to tornadoes driving is far more dangerous. Smoking anything is more dangerous.
Some of us have held jobs in industry’s where your mistakes or the mistakes of others could and did kill people.
There is a lot of truth to the old saying..... What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger!

I hope we do not get severe weather this weekend. This weekend my daughter is playing softball in the Sydney Angle Memorial Tournament in Moore, it would be really bad timing with everyone gathered to remember Sydney at this event if we have a severe outbreak

I hope we do not get severe weather this weekend. This weekend my daughter is playing softball in the Sydney Angle Memorial Tournament in Moore, it would be really bad timing with everyone gathered to remember Sydney at this event if we have a severe outbreak

Plus the Norman Music Festival will be ongoing.

(Good luck to your daughter!)

And the arts festival...

Dude, you have, ( by orders of magnitude) much higher chances of getting yourself killed fleeing the state than you have of getting hit at any one point, even during a PDS outbreak.


Exactly, which is why I didn't get in my car and try to flee on May 31st like so many did. However if such an event is expected and I have the ability to flee well in advance, as in the morning of, I don't see it as being a bad idea.

Why do you say "don't ask"? Why is it ok to give prayer credit when you get the result you want, but when you don't get the result you want then you can't ask why it didn't work?

Figure of speech roughly equivalent to a shrug.

bchris02.. First off let me say I do not blame you for your terror whatsoever! Chasers and Meteorologist have a certain passion and love for the weather that a lot of people out there just can't understand. I'm going to give you a stat, and for the life of me I can't remember where I heard it at but I know it was from a weather professional. The odds of getting hit by a massive tornado (EF3-EF5) are something like 1 and every 13,000,000 years. Meaning you could live on this earth for 13,000,000 years and only be hit by a significant tornado once in all of those years. I'm sure those stats are a tid bit higher in Oklahoma and "tornado alley" and before everyone laugh and call me crazy hear me out. The way they got those calculations is by taking the dimensions of the entire earth and the size of a tornado. That information comes from a very credible source. I know there are a lot of folks here that have been hit by a tornado, myself included, and a lot have family members that have been hit. I just wanted to give you those odds to add to what people are saying. Again, I am by no way making fun of you or acting like your crazy, I understand your concern. Like people were saying relax bud, Venture, anonymous and multiple people including myself watch the weather closely and will post numerous things from here til then. Heck you'll see post everyday of the year when there is a chance of severe or winter weather. Honestly, you'll probably know it's raining in your neck of the woods before it even starts Venture and Anonymous are very good at what they do. I chase and if we have an outbreak i'll try and post videos and photos of what I see, where it's at, and where it's headed. Have a good day, the people on this site will keep you informed.

Why do you say "don't ask"? Why is it ok to give prayer credit when you get the result you want, but when you don't get the result you want then you can't ask why it didn't work?Not tying to be a jerk, but this is a weather thread; it might be for the best if it is kept that way.

bchris02.. First off let me say I do not blame you for your terror whatsoever! Chasers and Meteorologist have a certain passion and love for the weather that a lot of people out there just can't understand. I'm going to give you a stat, and for the life of me I can't remember where I heard it at but I know it was from a weather professional. The odds of getting hit by a massive tornado (EF3-EF5) are something like 1 and every 13,000,000 years. Meaning you could live on this earth for 13,000,000 years and only be hit by a significant tornado once in all of those years. I'm sure those stats are a tid bit higher in Oklahoma and "tornado alley" and before everyone laugh and call me crazy hear me out. The way they got those calculations is by taking the dimensions of the entire earth and the size of a tornado. That information comes from a very credible source. I know there are a lot of folks here that have been hit by a tornado, myself included, and a lot have family members that have been hit. I just wanted to give you those odds to add to what people are saying. Again, I am by no way making fun of you or acting like your crazy, I understand your concern. Like people were saying relax bud, Venture, anonymous and multiple people including myself watch the weather closely and will post numerous things from here til then. Heck you'll see post everyday of the year when there is a chance of severe or winter weather. Honestly, you'll probably know it's raining in your neck of the woods before it even starts Venture and Anonymous are very good at what they do. I chase and if we have an outbreak i'll try and post videos and photos of what I see, where it's at, and where it's headed. Have a good day, the people on this site will keep you informed.

Your odds in Oklahoma, and more specifically central Oklahoma are exponentially higher than the worldwide risk. Oklahoma county and the surrounding counties see by far the most violent tornadoes on the planet. Nowhere else comes close. That said the mathematical statistics say Moore should be hit every 3000 or so years. However, they were hit in 1998, 1999, 2003, 2010, and 2013. We only have accurate records going back to around 1950 and I would be willing to be the risk is actually much higher than the statistics will say. Oklahoma enjoyed relatively quiet seasons through most of the 1980s and 1990s.

Those chances should be redone based on the size of Oklahoma and the average tornado size in Oklahoma. That would be more credible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Your odds in Oklahoma, and more specifically central Oklahoma are exponentially higher than the worldwide risk. Oklahoma county and the surrounding counties see by far the most violent tornadoes on the planet. Nowhere else comes close. That said the mathematical statistics say Moore should be hit every 3000 or so years. However, they were hit in 1998, 1999, 2003, 2010, and 2013. We only have accurate records going back to around 1950 and I would be willing to be the risk is actually much higher than the statistics will say.

According to information that I revived while taking a meteorology course at OU many years ago the mathematical odds of any given location being hit by a significant tornado in Oklahoma are once every 250 years.

In the given order of things its only natural that some of us would beat the odds on either side of the 250 years and that some of it would be significant.

A town small farm town in Kansas was virtually wiped off the map 3 times.... but these tornadoes occur at about the same time of day, on the same date, 3 years in a row.
And some of you think your luck is bad!

Figure of speech roughly equivalent to a shrug.

A shrug, I guess that makes about as much sense as any other explanation.


Not tying to be a jerk, but this is a weather thread; it might be for the best if it is kept that way.

I agree and I've never seen you derail a thread.:p

For the record, I wasn't the one that introduced religion into this thread. I think everyone should keep religion out of what is a scientific thread. Or start your own religious weather discussion.

Time to bring some sanity back to the thread.

Here is the Day 3 Outlook. Risk area is generally I-35 and to the west.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY3 PERIOD AS 70KT 500MB SPEED MAX EVOLVES WITHIN THE SERN QUADRANT
OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SPEED
MAX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AT 24/00Z WITH THE GFS LAGGING STRONGER
FLOW ACROSS NM. REGARDLESS...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
THE DRYLINE WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING
ORGANIZED ROTATING DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST THINKING IS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY 21Z PRIMARILY BETWEEN I-20 AND I-90
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AND MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED
ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER...NWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS.

LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN DISLODGE DUE TO INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE
EWD INTO CNTRL NEB...SWD ACROSS WRN KS/WRN TX PANHANDLE AT PEAK
HEATING WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT BUT SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE
50S ALONG ERN PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE DRYLINE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THAT FAVORS LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AIDED BY AN EJECTING SHORT-WAVE
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...SQUALL
LINE MAY EMERGE OVER CNTRL KS/WRN OK BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR I-35
LATE.

..DARROW.. 04/21/2014

Day 3 is Wednesday?

Yes it is...sorry! Normally I label it better. :)

Your odds in Oklahoma, and more specifically central Oklahoma are exponentially higher than the worldwide risk. Oklahoma county and the surrounding counties see by far the most violent tornadoes on the planet. Nowhere else comes close. That said the mathematical statistics say Moore should be hit every 3000 or so years. However, they were hit in 1998, 1999, 2003, 2010, and 2013. We only have accurate records going back to around 1950 and I would be willing to be the risk is actually much higher than the statistics will say. Oklahoma enjoyed relatively quiet seasons through most of the 1980s and 1990s.

I'm not sure what you want people to say to you at this point to somehow justify your extreme worry that you have exhibited for some time now. There's over 1.3 million people in living in Central Oklahoma who have seemed to make it through multiple tornado seasons. Why do you think you cannot? I hate being blunt and just say "deal with it," but your are far more likley to stroke yourself out worrying. Seriously all of this cannot be good for your blood pressure.

I look at it this way. I am far more concerned now living in DFW about tornadoes than I ever was in OKC despite a lower (but not much lower) tornado risk due to a higher population density and a general cluelessness about storms amongst the general public and the media down here. And yet all I can do is take the proper precautions and have good insurance. Everything else is in the hands of my maker. If it's my day to go, then it is what it is. If I don't get killed in a swirling mass of a tornado, then I'll get bopped on the head by a falling ceiling tile or choke on my tongue.

I'm really can't think of anything more that can be said to calm your nerves. If you are indeed this frightened and not just trolling, I tend to second other suggestions that you should seek professional help (and there's nothing wrong with that) or consider relocating. Just remember there are terrible natural disasters everywhere you go. This is a violent planet and we are just specks on it waiting to get wiped out by something or another.

Your odds in Oklahoma, and more specifically central Oklahoma are exponentially higher than the worldwide risk. Oklahoma county and the surrounding counties see by far the most violent tornadoes on the planet. Nowhere else comes close. That said the mathematical statistics say Moore should be hit every 3000 or so years. However, they were hit in 1998, 1999, 2003, 2010, and 2013. We only have accurate records going back to around 1950 and I would be willing to be the risk is actually much higher than the statistics will say. Oklahoma enjoyed relatively quiet seasons through most of the 1980s and 1990s.
Your odds of being in a serious car accident are exponentially higher than the risk of being impacted directly by a violent tornado. Have you stopped traveling by car yet?

A shrug, I guess that makes about as much sense as any other explanation.



I agree and I've never seen you derail a thread.:p

For the record, I wasn't the one that introduced religion into this thread. I think everyone should keep religion out of what is a scientific thread. Or start your own religious weather discussion.That was kind of a hypocritical statement lol... can't argue with that