Nice snow banding developing into OKC metro.

80 degrees and a tornado yesterday, momentary blizzard today. Just sitting here waiting for the earthquake.

Venture, what are long range models suggesting? Whens our next chance at a decent severe weather setup?

Venture, what are long range models suggesting? Whens our next chance at a decent severe weather setup?

I'm not venture, but Thursday into Friday. And maybe another Sunday.

Thurs/Fri looks like cool rain system. Potential winter precip with it pending on temperatures. Looks like next week we begin the climb back into the 80s.

80 degrees and a tornado yesterday, momentary blizzard today. Just sitting here waiting for the earthquake.

Meanwhile, as of 9:15 am,4/14/14, light snow and 36 degrees in Stillwater. Some of it might make it to OKC, if not already.

80 degrees and a tornado yesterday, momentary blizzard today. Just sitting here waiting for the earthquake.

i felt one about 8:15 in edmond. a 3.0.

Meanwhile, as of 9:15 am,4/14/14, light snow and 36 degrees in Stillwater. Some of it might make it to OKC.

it's been snowing in edmond for about half an hour now.

Best thing this winter...ground temps...same goes for spring.

ANON.. Thank you. So from what i'm seeing this next Sunday looks to be the best chance this week for a severe weather setup? Thursday and Friday may have a slight possibility but i'm thinking it'll likely be too cool for an organized severe weather threat. Do you concur? What's Sunday looking like to you for Severe weather outbreak. (I know it's still far out so data won't suggest much, but i'm just wondering what your thinking with current weather models)

Figures. We are in the mid 30s give or take right now with mostly all snow. In the winter we couldn't buy all snow unless we were below freezing most of the time. LOL

Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement

Updated: Mon Apr-14-14 09:39am CDT
Effective: Mon Apr-14-14 09:39am CDT
Expires: Mon Apr-14-14 10:30am CDT

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Cleveland; Lincoln; Logan; Oklahoma; Payne; Pottawatomie

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory for southern logan...oklahoma...
Lincoln...southeastern payne...northeastern cleveland and northwestern pottawatomie counties until 1030 am cdt...
An area of snow is moving through central oklahoma this morning. Although visibilities will fall as the bands of snow move through...there will be no no significant accumulation. Roads will be wet...but no icing of roads or bridges will occur.

We got down to 32.7, for awhile. Up to 33.3, now. Mama bluebird is still sitting on the nest so I'm keeping my fingers things will go well.

We got down to 32.7, for awhile. Up to 33.3, now. Mama bluebird is still sitting on the nest so I'm keeping my fingers things will go well.Is the nest near a window? You could sneak up and put a heat lamp on the other side directing the heat towards the bird. It wouldn't be much, but it's something. I've done it before it seemed to work.

will this hard freeze warning overnight be enough to make me take off my outdoor hoses and cover them up with the insulated covers?

Is the nest near a window? You could sneak up and put a heat lamp on the other side directing the heat towards the bird. It wouldn't be much, but it's something. I've done it before it seemed to work.

Nope. It's out away from the house. Nice idea, though.

will this hard freeze warning overnight be enough to make me take off my outdoor hoses and cover them up with the insulated covers?

Just make sure the hoses are drained.

Just make sure the hoses are drained.

what if they're not? besides the obvious, but i'm just not sure if this freeze will be long enough and cold enough...

OKlahoma weather never ceases to amaze.

what if they're not? besides the obvious, but i'm just not sure if this freeze will be long enough and cold enough...

We'll, you asked. Use your best judgment.

In looking at the more urban areas, using wunderground, it generally wasn't a hard freeze with low temps staying around 30, or better. So plants that were protected should have fared okay.

In looking at the more urban areas, using wunderground, it generally wasn't a hard freeze with low temps staying around 30, or better. So plants that were protected should have fared okay.

We got down to 31.4 and only for awhile so I suspect we're good at my place.

In looking at the more urban areas, using wunderground, it generally wasn't a hard freeze with low temps staying around 30, or better. So plants that were protected should have fared okay.Coldest I got in Edmond was down to 34 and none of my plants were protect and they were fine.

Still looks like cool rain chances Thursday eve.

Sunday looks like another good shot at some rain, possible garden variety thunderstorms. GFS indicating next week may be unsettled in terms of pop up storms/showers. Right now QPF projections just through Sunday are around half an inch to over an inch in NE OK. We need to get as much rain as possible. I feel like this summer could be a real burner.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/today.TAIR.min.grad.png

that's generous. He's a glass is shattered on the floor kinda guy.

lol ftw!

Just make sure the hoses are drained.

At first read, I thought you said "make sure the horses are drained." Chortle.

;)

Venture/Anon..... Just wanted to thank both of you guys for your information you provide to everyone on this site free of charge

Venture/Anon..... Just wanted to thank both of you guys for your information you provide to everyone on this site free of charge

My thanks, too! I live in Duncan, and I always check here first for weather information.

You guys do a great job!

Meanwhile, if you haven't been to Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com) in a while, it now sports a new, more streamlined look.

Downtown Weather | Personal Weather Station: KOKOKLAH72 by Wunderground.com | Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KOKOKLAH72)

Apparently Bunty is here to advertise Wunderground. LOL

Apparently Bunty is here to advertise Wunderground. LOL

Well, I don't care if you advertise your web site with every weather post, so LOL back to ya.

Well, I don't care if you advertise your web site with every weather post, so LOL back to ya.
Difference is that Venture volunteers hundreds of hours as a service to OKCTalk readers, much appreciated by most readers, and linking to his website was something WE requested from him rather than him pimping for selfish promotion. If you like Wunderground so much, why don't you spend your time on their website and not spam this thread with links to that site.

Difference is that Venture volunteers hundreds of hours as a service to OKCTalk readers, much appreciated by most readers, and linking to his website was something WE requested from him rather than him pimping for selfish promotion. If you like Wunderground so much, why don't you spend your time on their website and not spam this thread with links to that site.like*

Difference is that Venture volunteers hundreds of hours as a service to OKCTalk readers, much appreciated by most readers, and linking to his website was something WE requested from him rather than him pimping for selfish promotion. If you like Wunderground so much, why don't you spend your time on their website and not spam this thread with links to that site.

You hit the nail with the hammer as to why I don't mind Venture always supplying his personal weather links, since I've used them before. THANKS! To a less but still significant extent, I believe wunderground has its rightful place as well to know about, since it gives dozens of Oklahoma City area people the ability to share their data from their personal weather stations. I found them quite useful in getting an idea how severe this morning's cold weather was. The point of the wunderground links was to see if it would draw comment to how the new look was going over. If you and the others think that was an incredibly foul and highly inappropriate move on my part, then fine. But your rude comments were certainly not appreciated.

Venture/Anon..... Just wanted to thank both of you guys for your information you provide to everyone on this site free of charge

Here, here!

Difference is that Venture volunteers hundreds of hours as a service to OKCTalk readers, much appreciated by most readers, and linking to his website was something WE requested from him rather than him pimping for selfish promotion.

like*

But your rude comments were certainly not appreciated.
Neither was the spam or rude comment to Venture.

Looking ahead...

Anon already covered precip chances. Severe risk looks low on Saturday out west, and maybe a bit more of a risk South and Southeast on Sunday. Nothing major the way it looks now.

Next Wednesday is the next day that really jumps out at me, but not much in the way of any precip near us. So we'll keep an eye on that. Forecast sounding and precip for Central OK on Weds...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_204_35.29,-97.43_skewt_SB.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_204.gif

Thursday threat area goes back to western Oklahoma. Forecast sounding & Precip map for that...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_228_35.58,-99.24_skewt_SB.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_228.gif
Following those days next week, next chance works in pretty quick the following week. I think this is probably just setting us up for a classic May pattern. This is Sunday the 27th through Wednesday the 30th. I wouldn't get too worked up on placement of highest instability yet, I look at this and the take away is things are getting more active over the Central US. Exact placement will work itself out later.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/04/15/12/GFS_3_2014041512_F300_CAPE_SURFACE.pnghttp://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/04/15/12/GFS_3_2014041512_F324_CAPE_SURFACE.pnghttp://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/04/15/12/GFS_3_2014041512_F348_CAPE_SURFACE.pnghttp://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/04/15/12/GFS_3_2014041512_F372_CAPE_SURFACE.png

Neither was the spam or rude comment to Venture.

Look, I'm not going to argue with you any more. Instead of personally attacking me, why don't you, as well as others, join me in doing something constructive, such as going to Venture's web site, going to the donations page and make a donation, assuming you haven't already done so this year.

How much precip is on the menu for Thursday in the Metro?

Heard the set up for next Wednesday & Thursday could be something to keep a very close eye on?

Heard the set up for next Wednesday & Thursday could be something to keep a very close eye on?

Who did you hear this from?

Who did you hear this from?
A meteorologist who I occasionally see.

Yeah, Venture and others have pointed this out a few days ago. This coming Wednesday/Thursday looks to be a panhandles/western Oklahoma event. Hopefully it happens because they need some rain in the west even if it comes in the form of severe weather. Drought is more damaging than tornados at this point.

KOCO has a weather show every Wednesday at noon. It's interesting and you can submit questions.

Updated Storm Outlook...

Thursday 4/17
Light rain over the state, no severe risk. Mostly around only a tenth of an inch for most, some may get a bit heavier amounts.

Saturday 4/19
Modest instability over Western OK, but CIN will be around and overall coverage of precip appears pretty low. Best chance is maybe SW OK for an isolated storm and some light rain.

Sunday 4/20
Easter Sunday brings a definite risk of severe weather. Instability will be high with CAPE values generally 2000-2500 j/kg over much of Oklahoma. Convection appears to start by mid afternoon in the warm sector over much of OK. Surface setup looks like a surface low in NW OK with a cold front extending out to the WSW back into TX with a dryline extending from the front in SW OK. A warm front is going to be near/north of the KS border. Cap doesn't look terrible and wind provide looks favorable for rotating storms. Most of the indices on the the forecast sounding are supportive of severe weather. At this point I would say we are likely looking at SLIGHT risk day at this point and that is roughly where SPC is think right now. Keep in mind SPC doesn't outlook anything more than 3 days out unless it'll fall into the 30% probability category or higher, and SLIGHT risk starts at 15%. So I think this falls fairly in that 10-15% area. Things can change, so we'll see how it progresses. Main threat right now is hail/wind though a tornado threat will exist as LCLs won't be incredibly high and winds look favorable.

Monday 4/21
Severe risk remains but will be centered over South Central OK and Northern TX. Instability will be high to very high. Wind fields look like a mess on the forecast soundings, but the instability (CAPE near 3000 j/kg) would still suggest severe storms with very large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat.

Tuesday 4/22
Instability will be around, but no real trigger for storms.

Wednesday 4/23
We've been advertising this day for a bit now, with more picking up on it people are showing an interest. Per the 12Z GFS the main threat area is western OK with the highest instability (CAPE ~ 2000 j/kg) but CIN will be pretty extensive over the entire state. Precip forecasts don't even give us anything until late that evening over Central OK which won't be as unstable as the west. We'll see how this evolves, but GFS is holding a lid on Wednesday at this point.

Thursday 4/24
Main axis of instability moves over and just west of I-35 for the evening. Again, CIN pretty extensive and only precip is shown later in the evening over Southern OK.

Evening update...

No change to Thurs & Saturday. NAM and GFS really don't have a lot of precip for today (Thursday). Saturday looks mostly dry still.

Sunday looks like widely scattered precip/storms. Highest instability is going to be along and north/west of I-44. Monday and Tuesday are the same so far.

Wednesday still has a threat, but location is bouncing around.

Thursday seems to be the same with main instability axis near/west of I-35.

Anon/Venture... Would you say the severe potential would stretch into East/Northeast OK? So far i'm not seeing anything for this time frame.. Even the NWS is saying there not anticipating any severe weather for Sunday could the forecast have possibly changed overnight?

Anon/Venture... Would you say the severe potential would stretch into East/Northeast OK? So far i'm not seeing anything for this time frame.. Even the NWS is saying there not anticipating any severe weather for Sunday could the forecast have possibly changed overnight?

Just favorite SPC's page. They have detailed outlooks for Day 1-3 and have extended general outlooks for 4-8 timeframe. It is rare when the 4-8 outlook is utilized, and when it is - it almost always means more confidence in a severe weather event. And these events usually end up being towards the higher end. This should be a page you look at pretty much daily in the warm months.



NAM is killing today's rain, GFS has it moved from NW OK sweeping down to C OK tonight.

ANON... I check the SPC daily.. The reason I asked what I asked is because in the NWS Hazardous weather outlook for eastern OK it says no severe weather is anticipated. I just wanted to see what your view was because I saw Venture's post saying pretty much all of Oklahoma had a chance of it on Sunday. Just wanted to compare different peoples opinions.

ANON... I check the SPC daily.. The reason I asked what I asked is because in the NWS Hazardous weather outlook for eastern OK it says no severe weather is anticipated. I just wanted to see what your view was because I saw Venture's post saying pretty much all of Oklahoma had a chance of it on Sunday. Just wanted to compare different peoples opinions.

Things evolve from run to run. My comments are always based on that run specifically. NAM just brought all of Sunday into the forecast window and it has very little in the way of precip east of I-35.

Thursday might be a day to watch. GFS and ECMWF disagree on timing though.

GFS is slower with severe risk over Central OK, ECMWF pushes things off to the east faster with main threat possible in SE OK.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_180.gif

SPC Day 4-8 Discussion on the Weds/Thurs threat...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
25-35KT NW H5 FLOW ON BACK SIDE-BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. STRONG HEATING
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX AND DAYTIME
HEATING COULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN A FEW SUPERCELLS IN THE WAKE OF
SHORT WAVE. GIVEN THAT THIS ACTIVITY WOULD EVOLVE WITHIN A BROADER
ZONE OF LESS THAN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
INADEQUATE TO WARRANT 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS DURING THE DAY4
PERIOD.

LATER IN THE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AS
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGES. ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
GFS ALLOWING A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD PROVE POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR A PLAINS SEVERE
EVENT. HOWEVER...GFS DOES NOT EJECT THIS FEATURE UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY. EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS COULD GENERATE A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES PREVENT DELINEATING
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2014

Looking at the model runs this evening. GFS has a big show over Central OK on Thursday. Euro has the big show in Western OK on Wednesday. Which one is right? Both have been sticking to their guns so we just have to see how each run progresses.

So are we looking at a potential PDS watch kind of a day? In addition, Payne has upper 90s forecasted for next weekend. Can we really see temperatures that hot in April?

... Payne has upper 90s forecasted for next weekend. Can we really see temperatures that hot in April?

Itty bitty bits of snow and 90's is the same week? Yeah, it's Oklahoma. I can buy that.

So are we looking at a potential PDS watch kind of a day? In addition, Payne has upper 90s forecasted for next weekend. Can we really see temperatures that hot in April?

AccuWeather has it in the mid to low 80's next weekend.

Storm Outlook...

Saturday
Chance of a storm or two along the dryline, mainly out in TX. Otherwise dry for the main body.

Sunday
Couple have multiple chances of showers/storms on Sunday. Most likely will be Western OK. General rain early and then maybe some storms along the dryline later in the day. Things will slowly move east through the day/overnight. Severe risk is low, but some could get a bit grumpy.

Monday
Chance for some rain and storms remain, mainly the eastern half of OK. Not much in the way of severe weather.

Tuesday - quiet

Wednesday
Chance of storms late along the dryline in Western/Central OK. May not really fire until sunset or later. Best instability will be out west though, so severe potential might be pretty limited the further east any storms go.

Thursday
Chance of storms Central/Eastern OK by later afternoon along dryline/cold front. Similar to what we had recently. Timing is going to play into everything here on how fast the storm system moves through. Instability will be very high just ahead of the boundary coming through. Still to jumbled to pick a specific risk area.

Friday - Far SE OK some remaining storms and such.

Saturday - Quiet

Sunday
Very slight chance of a storm out west.

We got down to 32.7, for awhile. Up to 33.3, now. Mama bluebird is still sitting on the nest so I'm keeping my fingers things will go well.

We have three live babies. 7570

So are we looking at a potential PDS watch kind of a day? In addition, Payne has upper 90s forecasted for next weekend. Can we really see temperatures that hot in April?

Sure!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/getrecords.php?id=okc&mo=apr&type=tm

We have three live babies. 7570Those are cute... I bought three baby ducks today so now I some to take care of myself :p