New Moderate Risk area is in Yellow, area to the east of the green line is in the slight risk.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/13-outlook-3.png

Day 1 Text

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...ARKLATEX AND LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY...

...NRN OK/SE KS/OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS ECNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...FIRST IN ERN KS AND THEN EXPANDING SSWWD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NCNTRL OK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND OUACHITA MTNS OF ERN OK. MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MCS FORMATION DURING THE EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR WICHITA KS SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 21Z
SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT IS FORECAST WITH 850
TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AS SUPERCELLS ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SUBSTANTIAL THAT
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...A
POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER SHOULD
EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ANYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND OUACHITA MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD MO AND LITTLE ROCK AR SHOW SBCAPE
VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. ANY
STORM THAT CAN INITIATE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...COULD HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE AS MORE WIDESPREAD FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.

...SRN OK/NORTH TX/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ALONG THE DRYLINE BY
MIDDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TO INITIATE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL WIDELY SPACED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NORTH TX FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO
SMALL CLUSTERS...MOVING EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT ARDMORE OK AND DALLAS TX AT 00Z/MON SHOW
MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH
850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONGLY
VEERING WINDS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 400 M2/S2. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR.

..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 04/13/2014

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

To make the forecast nice and complicated tomorrow...here are some items from the 4Z HRRR that runs through 2PM.

Shield of light/moderate rain developing next few hours over TX moving north. Rain will move through the metro between 6 and 9AM.

By 11AM looks like initiation over NE KS that will fill down near the OK border by 2PM. HRRR does limit instability quite a bit and moves most of it into NE OK by early afternoon. It wants to have the dryline through here by Noon.

In contrast, the new 00Z Euro has the dryline moving through around 3-5PM in the afternoon. It also has instability up over 2000 j/kg for portions of the I-35 corridor. Euro initializes the dryline along I-44 by 1PM and moves it into the metro by 3PM.

Looks like an "early" show, so we'll take a look at things here in a few hours.

So is this looking like it may be a Tulsa event more than an OKC one? If I have plans at 7:30 tonight, should this be over by then?

Tulsa plans? It doesn't look like "it" will be over but I suppose it depends in what "it" is and your tolerance for rough weather. Hail doesn't bother me if I'm home but I rescheduled my Afternoon Edmond trip because I didn't want to be out in it. If if was something big, like a wedding, I would have gone as things sit, right now. That's just me.

Short range models and the more traditional models are in conflict right now on where storms initiate.

12Z NAM
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_sfc_radar_009.gif

12Z HRRR
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014041312/t5/cref_t5sfc_f08.png

MOD risk is gone per SPC, here is the specific outlook for Oklahoma...

...ERN KS TO CENTRAL/ERN OK AND AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE INITIAL SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER N TX/OK/KS TODAY...REACHING MO/AR BY EARLY
TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SEWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A LEE CYCLONE IN SW KS THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND MOVE NEWD TO NW MO BY MID AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE ACROSS NRN IL TO LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN AND WRN
OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT SURFACE
HEATING AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ASIDE FROM A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED BENEATH LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG.

THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE
NE OF THE DRYLINE-COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH
RATHER MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THUS...ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
TEND TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED WELL NE OF THE TRIPLE POINT
/ESPECIALLY IN KS/ AND STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS AS CONVECTION SPREADS
EWD/SEWD FROM SE KS/ERN OK TO AR. MEANWHILE ...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE STRONGER IN PROXIMITY TO THE TRIPLE POINT...WHERE THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN ANCHOR SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

Nice clearing ahead of dryline. Beginning to see dryline bulge out in extreme SW OK.

CU development ahead of the dryline and cold front back to the NW is going really well now.

The chat will be up and going for today...I'll be back and forth until we start seeing storms getting ready to go.

Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

New Day 1 Outlook...

...OK/WESTERN AR...
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON A SCENARIO WHERE ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
OVER CENTRAL OK. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE/SIGNIFICANT HAIL IN THE STORMS THAT FORM. ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRYLINE HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STAYING DISCRETE
OVER SOUTHEAST OK...POSING A GREATER RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE
THIS EVENING WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE
INTO AR.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0333.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WRN MO/NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131610Z - 131845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON...PROBABLY
REQUIRING A WATCH BY AROUND 17-18Z.

DISCUSSION...ONE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE...NOW NORTHEAST OF
MEDICINE LODGE...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE
FALLS CITY NEB/ST. JOSEPH MO AREA THROUGH 18-20Z. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AS AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGRESSING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES... GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...AMONG A
CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL DATA...ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AROUND 18-19Z.
THIS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR BOTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW...NEAR/NORTHEAST OF SALINA THROUGH THE MANHATTAN/TOPEKA
AREA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW....TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF WICHITA INTO THE EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE
SUPPORTING SIZABLE WARM SECTOR CAPE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROBABLY WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...EVEN WITH ACTIVITY FORMING TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE
WARM FRONT. WITH THE STRONGER 500 MB JET REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LARGE
AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES.

..KERR/HART.. 04/13/2014

For those not in the chat room, storms starting to go up in NW OK from Medford down to Lahoma.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0334.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO PARTS
OF NW TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131726Z - 131900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE BY 19-20Z ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. AND AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS IT DOES...COINCIDING WITH STRONGER
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...IT
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL WEAKEN
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE INITIATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
STORMS BY AROUND 19-20Z...IF NOT BEFORE. ONCE THIS OCCURS...IN THE
PRESENCE OF AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE CAPE...AND MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR /500 MB WIND ON THE ORDER OF 40-50
KT/...DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.

LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INITIALLY...BUT ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING OFF...AND OUT AHEAD OF...THE DRYLINE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGER
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AS THE SOUTHWARD
SURGING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...AN UPSCALE GROWING SQUALL
LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED MAINLY BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL.

..KERR/HART.. 04/13/2014

What time do you expect storms to fire in the metro area?

What time do you expect storms to fire in the metro area?
Next couple of hours.

Dryline is cutting through Kingfisher and Blaine county right now, very sharp gradient.

The mixing along and ahead of the dryline will be favorable for explosive development. But I think largest hail threat will be early with cells that take on supercell characteristics, I think storms will quickly try to form a line and decrease large hail and off tornado chances. However, this will create potential widespread severe winds across E and S OK.

New development from Medford to Pond Creek to Enid and Waukomis. More CU development around the Metro and SW. Stay alert.

New hints of a cell going up west of us near Weatherford.

Dryline is about to go now. Cell near Lamont/Deer Creek showing hail now. Also storms forming down into Northern TX as well.

New Tornado Watch

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BlH4gK_CIAAN692.jpg

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0074_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 74
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SHERMAN
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 73 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0073.html)...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL OK...AND WILL SOON FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH DRYLINE STORMS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS GREATEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST OK...WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Mod (40%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (20%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (50%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Low (10%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (60%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (30%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (80%)

Kiowa, Wash!ta, and Caddo counties. Explosive cumulus along cool front here.

Cool front looks to be taking over dryline very quickly. Not saying it will, but the timing of this occurrence appears to put the triple point into Canadian county within an hour.

New cell developing near Tuttle/Mustang.

On the new chat page (click on link in signature) I do have the radar stream going now.

Getting a few drops of rain out in Mustang now.

Raining and still sunny near NW 23rd & Portland.

7407

The Mustang storm flying towards OKC.

It's looking plenty stormy toward the north and northwest in Stillwater where there is a severe storm warning out. It looks less stormy to the southwest. Rain cooled wind coming in.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/mcd0339.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/watch/ww0074.html)...

VALID 132009Z - 132145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 74 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE
MAY INCREASE THROUGH 23-00Z...WHILE THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
CONTINUES.

DISCUSSION...WHILE DRYLINE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE...LIFT
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO FORCE VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE UPSCALE GROWTH
OF A SQUALL LINE IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TOWARD THE RED RIVER THROUGH 23-00Z...THOUGH THIS MAY
MOSTLY OCCUR NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. SEVERE
HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH SQUALL LINE CONVECTION...AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING/DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM BENEATH 30-50
KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...DISCRETE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT STILL MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA TOWARD EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 04/13/2014

Whole line is severe warned now north of Edmond. Additional development starting south through Mustang.

Pretty good hail storm for a few seconds here just now

The national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...

* until 415 pm cdt

* at 341 pm cdt...severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near edmond to near oklahoma city...moving east at
25 mph.

Hazard...ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

Source...radar indicated.

Impact...people and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs...siding...windows and vehicles. Expect
wind damage to roofs...siding and trees.

* locations impacted include...
Oklahoma city...western norman...edmond...moore...midwest city...
Del city...choctaw...the village...spencer...nichols hills...
Jones...nicoma park...luther...valley brook...arcadia...stanley
draper lake...tinker air force base...forest park...lake aluma and
smith village.

Clouds just now covered half the sun in north-central Norman. Radar doesn't show we'll be getting any rain at this point. PLEASE bring some rain.

Severe weather statement
national weather service norman ok
402 pm cdt sun apr 13 2014

okc081-083-119-132115-
/o.con.koun.sv.w.0005.000000t0000z-140413t2115z/
lincoln ok-payne ok-logan ok-
402 pm cdt sun apr 13 2014

...a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 415 pm cdt
for northwestern lincoln...eastern payne and southeastern logan
counties...

At 401 pm cdt...severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near maramec to 3 miles west of fallis...moving east
at 25 mph.

Hazard...ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

Source...radar indicated.

Impact...people and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs...siding...windows and vehicles. Expect
wind damage to roofs...siding and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Cushing...perkins...yale...carney...tryon...ripley ...agra...fallis
and ingalls.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

a tornado watch remains in effect until 800 pm cdt sunday evening for
oklahoma and northern texas.

Are they through now? I was going to go on a bike ride if that is the last of them

Consistent mildly strong wind in N-C Norman.

Are they through now? I was going to go on a bike ride if that is the last of them

Yes you guys are good up in Edmond now.

Yes you guys are good up in Edmond now.Awesome! :)

New warning...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WEST CENTRAL MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 500 PM CDT


* AT 411 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF TRYON TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GOLDSBY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.


HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.


IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

My wife is getting ready to leave Tulsa heading to OKC on turnpike. Is she going to be driving through this or is ti mainly going to skirt NE along the north side of the the Turner?

My wife is getting ready to leave Tulsa heading to OKC on turnpike. Is she going to be driving through this or is ti mainly going to skirt NE along the north side of the the Turner?

She's going to end up driving right through it.

Nice storm with dime-sized hail and gusty winds here in Norman. I'll take it. :)

Mike Morgan is predicting lower 20s for Tuesday morning. I am guessing with such a large number of hours below freezing, much of the greening we've seen over the past couple of weeks is about to reverse itself.

https://scontent-a-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t31.0-8/1973652_10202679203133759_8938414122640862549_o.jp g

news9 has it at 33... hopefully it won't get below freezing

Tornado on the ground on the storm we've been following in chat in SW OK north of Velma.

Yeah hopefully it doesn't get below 32 or if it does, it only stays there are a short period of time. Back in 2007 I was living in Arkansas and we saw a late season April arctic blast much like this one. It got down to 19 degrees. Everything that was already green went back into dormancy and it took about a month and a half for things to come back. I remember it being mid-May and everything was still dead and brown that year.

I 'm a bit concerned for some of my bluebirds - eggs ready to hatch.

news9 has it at 33... hopefully it won't get below freezing

HARD FREEZE WARNING INCLUDES OKLAHOMA CITY:

Hard Freeze Warning Hard Freeze Warning - Payne (Oklahoma)
Updated: Sun Apr-13-14 12:42pm CDT
Effective: Sun Apr-13-14 12:42pm CDT
Expires: Tue Apr-15-14 09:00am CDT

Severity: Moderate
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Garfield; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Jackson; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Logan; Major; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Tillman; Was hita

Instructions: A hard freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation. Be careful if you have to travel or if you are working or playing outside.

Message summary: ...wind advisory remains in effect until noon cdt monday...
...hard freeze warning in effect from 1 am to 9 am cdt tuesday...
* wind before passage of cold front: south 25 to 35 mph...gusts around 40 mph.
* wind after passage of cold front: north 25 to 35 mph...gusts around 40 mph.
* minimum temperatures tuesday morning: 28 to 32 degrees.
* impact of freeze warning: tender vegetation may be affected tuesday morning.

Another tail end charlie warning

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN LOVE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 658 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RINGLING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.


HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONE GROVE...HEALDTON...WILSON...RINGLING AND CORNISH.

Flew back in from New Orleans - Dallas - OKC this afternoon. Was a little bumpy on the first leg second leg was too bumpy for my taste. Was quite a sight when we broke through the black cloud barrier south of the airport.

Snatched this pic from another site of the storm outside Ardmore.
7409

An unusually good panoramic shot of a shelf cloud.

Out of curiosity, what is the criteria for issuing a PDS watch vs a normal watch? Researching the May 31, 2013 El Reno storm, if it would have happened a little farther east it could have been one of the worst disasters in American history. I believe that CAPE was 5000 that day vs around 2000? for today's storm. How often does that happen?

Mike Morgan is predicting lower 20s for Tuesday morning. I am guessing with such a large number of hours below freezing, much of the greening we've seen over the past couple of weeks is about to reverse itself.

Man, you are such a pessimist. Why?

bchris02 is just a glass half empty kind of guy. LOL

bchris02 is just a glass half empty kind of guy. LOL

That's generous. He's a glass is shattered on the floor kinda guy.

I doubt the freeze will cause much trouble. Some but we've had warm weather and are already past a lot of buddings. It is going to warm right back up. Most of us haven't even planted because there's always a freeze (or at least frost) risk this late.

Snowing like crazy here in far NW OKC.

Downtown too.