I haven't planted anything outside yet for a reason. :)Stop it! lol.... I have all of my tropical plants outside and have a few things planted including my Banana trees, but haven't planted any begonias yet. I do this every year man, I need to just set a date when I put them out ;)

My rule was always to hold off on planting until May 1st. Winter can easily make nasty comebacks any time in April.

Tax day is always the date I use for planting most things.

Here is a first look of the new chat page. It has more stuff on it and I haven't tested it on mobile yet. I might end up create a mobile only page that gets rid of the video stream and twitter feed on the left.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html

What's the ustream? It looks good. I take it there will be comments on the right, tweets on the left with - what? - above that?

What's the ustream? It looks good. I take it there will be comments on the right, tweets on the left with - what? - above that?

Streaming video for when I do radar coverage or other maps and such. Thinking of also setting up an outdoors webcam for a sky view. :)

Last few hail storms moving through and then they should start to dissipate.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/7-2.png

Storm Outlook...

Thursday 4/10
Fairly unstable atmosphere in an area just along/southeast of I-44 with the highest area of instability in SC OK. CAPE values 1000-1500 j/kg with other favorable parameters in place. However, strong cap will be in place and CIN isn't forecast to burn off. Could see 1 sole storm get going, but not expecting much of anything. Models don't pop and precip, but just putting this out there as a "just in case" situation.

Friday 4/11
Moderately unstable atmosphere returns for much of Oklahoma with the highest area from the Lake Eufaula area down to SC OK. Decent cap and CIN will still be in place, so it seems like another day where convection will be suppressed and nothing will be able to get going.

Saturday 4/12
Very unstable atmosphere in place over NW OK to SW OK. This reminds me a lot of last week where we had a lot of instability, but also a strong cap. Parameters are all in place for severe weather, however so is a very strong cap. CIN stays in place most of the day so don't expect much of anything at this point. We are still a few days out, so if we start to see signs that the cap won't hold then a risk area would be warranted.

Sunday 4/13
Moderately unstable in the early afternoon ahead of a passing front in Central OK, generally along I-44. Not to do the broken record thing, but strong cap in place so any activity that does form along the boundary will be isolated in nature. Best location for precip right now looks to be SC OK. Main threat will be straight line winds and hail.

Looking further out there are a few more chances coming in. Keep in mind this will change from run to run, but we might see this solution jump in and out as we get closer.

Monday 4/21 - Chance of storms Central third of Oklahoma.
Tuesday 4/22 - Chance of storms Central/East mainly, maybe parts of W OK except the TX border counties.
Wednesday 4/23 - Chance of storms east of I-35.

An addition to the discussion above, the 00Z ECMWF is a bit more aggressive for Sunday. Quick look at the CAPE map with the surface boundaries...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/13-outlook-euro.png

This for 7PM with peak instability in Central to SC OK ahead of the dryline and cold front. Triple point looks like it will be close to Central OK on this solution. Euro has convection well ahead of these boundaries in Eastern OK but also a squall line filling in on the cold front and additional colds on the dryline.

Still several days to go - but we'll have to see which solution remains the most consistent.

So any update on the severe outlook for Sunday?

So any update on the severe outlook for Sunday?
Mike Morgasmo and the Ch 4 weather fear mongers are pumping a severe outbreak for Sunday. He's been harping on this now for a couple of days and is beginning to ramp it up now, still 4 days out. Apparently the Ch 4 weather fear mongers just feel the need to keep everyone scared about, the approaching snowmageddon, extreme fire danger, severe storm outbreaks, etc. It must make them feel better about themselves. ??????

Getting home from New Orleans on Sunday afternoon so definitely interested to see how the forecast shapes up over the next few days.

GFS is slowing slightly on the 18Z run, but will wait for the 00Z run tonight to do another update. Euro has continued to show storms in the state on Sunday. The 12Z run this afternoon has the front coming through by 5PM, so this show will be fairly early. It does have a very unstable environment for storms, so we'll just have to wait and see.

I'm not about to start shouting widespread severe weather that Morgan is now.

David Payne's forecast isn't that scary sounding. He is showing a slight risk with the main threats being wind and hail, with only isolated tornadoes.

David Payne's forecast isn't that scary sounding. He is showing a slight risk with the main threats being wind and hail, with only isolated tornadoes.

Not against you at all BChris (okay? :), but I got a chuckled when Rick Smith (NWS Norman) put out a tweet last go around saying "aren't all tornadoes isolated?"

I thought it was pretty clever. :)

Mike Morgan (4)said at 6 that we can expect wide spreed severe weather on Sunday.
If he said anything about tornadoes I missed it?
But CH 9 at noon said there was a low risk of tornado’s but also indicated this storm is a long way out and things can change.

Sounds like this might be more of a hail and high wind event, but if a stray tornado just happens to hit your house, its not an isolated event to you!

Not against you at all BChris (okay? :), but I got a chuckled when Rick Smith (NWS Norman) put out a tweet last go around saying "aren't all tornadoes isolated?"

I thought it was pretty clever. :)

BINGO!!!! Was thinking the same thing!!! :) Love it.

Not against you at all BChris (okay? :), but I got a chuckled when Rick Smith (NWS Norman) put out a tweet last go around saying "aren't all tornadoes isolated?"

I thought it was pretty clever. :)

The meteorologists on May 20th and on May 31st said the storm was likely to produce multiple violent, long track tornadoes. To me, that is much more alarming than when they say "isolated" tornadoes.

So how serious is Sunday looking right now?

The meteorologists on May 20th and on May 31st said the storm was likely to produce multiple violent, long track tornadoes. To me, that is much more alarming than when they say "isolated" tornadoes.

So how serious is Sunday looking right now?

But they are still isolated, they aren't holding hands. :)

For Sunday... I'll look at doing an update after the 00Z Euro is in, which will be a couple more hours. I have a feeling it still won't help any if the 00Z NAM and GFS runs are any indication. Just compare these two on the position of the surface low at 7AM Sunday. Also if you look at the wind barbs you can see the differences in timing with the cold front arrival in NW OK. GFS has the northerly winds (frontal passage) into NW OK by morning, NAM is holding it well to the north still. The 12Z NAM run tomorrow morning will go through Sunday afternoon/early evening which will cover the main time frame for all severe weather. So we can get a better idea then.

12Z Sunday per NAM
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_sfc_temp_084.gif

12Z Sunday per GFS

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_temp_084.gif

00Z Euro is pretty similar to the NAM model. At 7AM on Sunday surface low is in SW KS to the SE of Dodge City. Frontal passage in OKC is going to be between 4PM and 7PM. Instability looks pretty high ahead of the front with CAPE values at or above 2500 j/kg. Storm initiation is showing up along the cold from roughly along/west of I-35 to OKC and then along the dryline through southern OK. It appears more isolated south of I-40.

4PM Boundaries and Precip
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/13-outlook-euro-1.png

7PM Boundaries and Precip
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/13-outlook-euro-2.png

So this is showing precipitation behind the front? Don't supercells usually form ahead of a front or dryline?

Also, should I cancel my plans for Sunday evening yet?

So this is showing precipitation behind the front? Don't supercells usually form ahead of a front or dryline?

Also, should I cancel my plans for Sunday evening yet?

You can have what's called "wrap-around" moisture sufficient to fire off small rainshowers as the natural anticlockwise rotation around a low "pushes" moisture around its "backside." The severe threat is generally gone by then, but the rain can persist. Varies with each system, of course.

I, personally, would never suggest anyone cancel anything on the basis of what's termed (as of this morning) a "low risk" for severe weather four days in advance. You're gonna give yourself an ulcer, bchris.

You can have storms behind cold fronts, but they usually are undercut by the front and don't have long lives and are elevated in nature.

For supercells (see tornado) you need low level moisture and warmest air you can find. Behind the cold front neither of these are there in the lower levels, thus elevated storms.


Sunday is one to watch, but right now it doesn't look like doomsday.

12Z NAM doesn't bring any major surprises to the table. Two areas of convection Sunday. 1) Along the boundaries and 2) Ahead of everything in the warm sector.

Area 2 is already highlighted by a 30% risk are on the SPC Day 4 graphic. This is going to mainly be far SE OK and areas SE of the state.

Area 1 is going to be much of Central and Eastern Oklahoma. Looks like things should fire by mid afternoon along the front and dryline, but much will get quickly undercut as the front races through. Severe risk looks like a low end slight right now with primary risks being hail and wind. If a storm were able to get going ahead of the boundaries, or get rooted in them, then there might be a chance for some increase rotation with it - but its low right now.

Still 4 days out so things can change some.

12 GFS is in for Sunday and it is a tad slower. Frontal passage between 4 and 7 now with the surface low digging south along the Red River. Forecast sounding for Norman at 4PM would indicate conditions would be there for severe weather, if it wasn't for the strong cap (3.3). Winds from 900 to 500 mb are nearly uniform (from the Southwest) the entire way out. Very slight backing to the winds at the surface could yield a brief window for a rotating storm, but nothing to get excited about. The big thing here is going to be cap strength that might keep a lid on things until the front passes and we get some elevated convection. At that point the severe risk would be limited to an isolated hail or wind report.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_081_35.29,-97.31_skewt_SB.gif

Looking ahead a bit further looks like the next chance of storms will come in around the 17th and 18th of the month. Then quiet again. Of course things are going to change in these forecasts, but just tossing it out there.

Since 1950, we have NEVER gone without at least 2 tornado reported in the first four months of a year. The lowest year with 2 was 1998. We had 1 in March and 1 in April that year. The year ended with 83 overall with the May 24th spat of tornadoes in NW OK, June 13th in Central OK (day Frontier City was hit), and the October 4th outbreak (26 - largest in state history for October) in Central and SE OK.

Just something to think about. If a year starts off this quiet, it really doesn't mean the year will be quiet overall.

Anecdote: the hat trick of those storm in June and October and (of course) May the following year caused me to have anxiety every time it was cloudy for two years or so.

I got over it.

Essentially no change to the 12Z Euro from the 00Z Euro. Still has storms by 4PM along the cold front from NC Oklahoma back to Elk City and then storms along the dryline from Enid south to Lawton. Instability still forecast to be high so severe weather still possible. I would plan on a slight risk day for much of Oklahoma except far NW and the panhandle.

Mike Morgan was forcasting an upgrade to Moderate risk for Sunday and making it out to be a bigger deal than whats anticipated. Both Both 5 and 9 were just saying storms with hail rain and some wind as the main threats. I guess we will see who ends up with the correct forcast as the system gets closer.

Payne has a moderate risk for Sunday already from roughly I-40 south to Texas.

Mike Morgan was forcasting an upgrade to Moderate risk for Sunday and making it out to be a bigger deal than whats anticipated. Both Both 5 and 9 were just saying storms with hail rain and some wind as the main threats. I guess we will see who ends up with the correct forcast as the system gets closer.

Is there a graphic available from that somewhere? I'd be curious to see it.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

Payne has a moderate risk for Sunday already from roughly I-40 south to Texas.

So I am guessing this is their own moderate risk and not the NWS one?

So I am guessing this is their own moderate risk and not the NWS one?

Indeed. SPC will probably have us in a slight when the new Day 3 comes out tonight around 2-3AM.

Bchris, your aviator is freaking me out. QUIT STARING!!!

Not doing an actual forecast just yet, just some random commenting to see what others are thinking.

So the 00Z NAM puts the brakes on some more. Bringing the front in around early evening now instead of late afternoon. Instability looks good and models are kicking out precip, but then there is the issue of the forecast soundings showing a very strong cap (4 to 5). Logic would tend to say the cap would kill things, unless these are going to have some crazy elevated bases. LOL

Wind pattern looks pretty classic for a straight line winds with the strongest storms. Tornado risk doesn't look all that significant at all unless we get a right turner that creates a localized environment favorable to better directional shear.

GooFuS is just now loading in, so more comments when it finishes up.

The 00Z GFS is similar to NAM with one notable exception, no or very little cap by afternoon. It is tough to see which one (NAM or GFS) is legit in this respect, so I want to see a couple more model runs. Here is a look at the forecast sounding mid afternoon for the metro. More thoughts tomorrow as we get the Euro in and the morning model runs.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_GFS_069_35.39,-97.55_skewt_SB.gif

SPC Day 3 Slight Risk covers all but the western 2 tiers of counties and the PHs. A 30% area includes the I-35 counties and those back to the east - this includes all but the western Metro counties.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT A LEAD/SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW...PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN
AN INCREASINGLY BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF
OK/TX TO THE OZARKS/LOWER-MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH AFTERNOON...AMPLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD INFLUENCE INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GREATER CERTAINTY WILL BE FOR STRONGER DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF
OK/SOUTHEAST KS AND ADJACENT MO/KS...ALTHOUGH OTHER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TX/ARKLATEX WITHIN
THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS /VEER-BACK-VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT/ AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THAT
MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING...WITH
NEAR-COLD FRONTAL STORMS OTHERWISE STEADILY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
COLD FRONT /FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST/. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND A SOME TORNADOES
MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 04/11/2014

Thanks for nothing models. That's pretty much how I'm going into this mornings/afternoon's discussion on this. After they all started to hold hands and get timing down, they had to go get screwy again.

12Z GFS Highlights

Cold front timing is back to what it was in yesterday's 18Z run. This rockets the front through south of a Miami to Durant line by 7PM. The 06Z run this morning had it pretty much just north of I-44 and on top of the Metro.
Cold front initiation by 4PM along I-35 and I-44 to the north and NE of the metro. Expanding down to the Red River by 7PM.
Warm sector initiation looks muddied with convection on going from 7AM through the evening starting in SC into SE OK.
Wrap around looks minimal to what it was showing on earlier runs.
Very unstable early (1PM) in North Central OK from the Metro north along I-35 with little CIN, translating to the area just east of I-35 and south of I-40 by 4PM, and then increased CIN over SE OK by 7PM with limited instability.


12Z NAM Highlights

Cold front progression slowest in the last 4 runs. Doesn't enter the Metro until between 7 and 10PM.
Cold front initiation by 4PM in far NW OK and KS. Storms grazing the metro north of I-40 between 7 and 10PM. Cold front never really fills out much further south than I-40.
Warm sector initiation might be a two parter. One in NE OK by 4PM and then far SE OK by 10PM.
No wrap around precip that is worth mentioning.
Instability anywhere from 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front for most time periods, but CIN is also present for nearly the entire time as well - hence why it is hold back on precip in various areas.
Supercell composite would be high for the Metro starting at 4PM until 10PM. Sig TOR parameters aren't anything significant though.


Forecast Sounding from the GFS at 1PM
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_054_35.39,-97.43_skewt_SB.gif

Forecast Sounding from NAM at 4PM

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_NAM_057_35.29,-97.43_skewt_SB.gif

So we are back to more questions than answers on what will happen with Sunday. Timing is the king here. If the NAM has the timing right, risk for severe weather goes up for Central OK. If the GFS is right, we might get a thin line of storms that will blow through early in the afternoon and that'll be that.

The new Euro will be out in about an hour or so, we'll see if that one went crazy as well.

Mike Morgan as usual is predicting " doom and gloom" for sunday with a moderate risk for severe weather and " powerful rotating super cells"

Mike Morgan as usual is predicting " doom and gloom" for sunday with a moderate risk for severe weather and " powerful rotating super cells"

Weird that he's the only one predicting that. News9 at noon said that the tornado threat is very low for this weekend and the threat is mostly damaging winds and hail.

Keep in mind you typically need a good rotating storm for large hall. Rotating storm doesn't always mean tornadoes.

Dewpoints already approaching 60 across most of OK and we are 2 days out. The atmosphere may be so unstable that we have linear storm formation if the cap does indeed erode early enough for pre frontal convection.

However, we saw last week where we had prime conditions but no strong intitiation factor at the correct time.

Mike Morgan as usual is predicting " doom and gloom" for sunday with a moderate risk for severe weather and " powerful rotating super cells"

The harem-scarem crowd has always leveraged the notion of "rotating storms" to leave that tantalizing, hanging, implicit "threat" of a tornado there - just to make it sound threatening. Rotating storms just means there's lots of atmospheric movement parallel and perpendicular to the earth's surface because of the varying wind patterns aloft. Heck, that's the whole reason you get hail - moisture that freezes high in the thunderhead, falls, and then gets swept up in the storms' airflow and kicked back up into the freezing air.

I don't know how the broader crowd feels about them, but I've always liked Jed Castles and Matt Mahler on Ch 9 - neither of those guys gets very caught up in the hype. Just this morning, their own graphics were showing only a "low risk" area generally pretty consistent with what's already been put out there, and really no harem-scarem business. Castles is mostly on in the early AM news show on Ch 9..

Day 2 Moderate Risk is out for the area East of I-35.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS
TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH STRENGTHENING/INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM KS TO THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A PRECEDING
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE/MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS IT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A
LEAD/SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS...REACHING THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT
WILL EXIST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE...PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF
OK/TX AND OZARKS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH AFTERNOON...AMPLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD INFLUENCE INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...POTENTIALLY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT/NEAR THE COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK INTO ADJACENT MO. A BIT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...DISCRETE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF EASTERN OK AND
NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST TX AND ARKLATEX WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND/OR
NEAR THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX. RELATIVE EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE
PARENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO
SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT /NAMELY ACROSS TX/.

OVERALL...FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES /45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ WILL
SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THAT
MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD EVOLVE BY EVENING IN MOST
AREAS...WITH NEAR-COLD FRONTAL STORMS STEADILY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
COLD FRONT /FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST/. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
THE DOMINANT HAZARD OVERALL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN
AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT INCLUDING EASTERN OK AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF MO/AR/NORTH TX.

Day 2 Outlook maps...

Green = Slight, Red = Moderate

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/12-1s.png


Probabilities
Brown = 5%, Yellow = 15%, Red = 30%, Purple = 45% -- White = Hatched 15% significant threat area

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/12-1.png

NAM has slowed some since yesterday's run. Based on that, outlined (in red) area below is the area with the risk of severe weather tomorrow. It looks like there is still a chance anything south of Highway 9 will be suppressed, but we'll see how things evolve tomorrow.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/13-fcst-1.png

12Z GFS keeps wabbling and is a little faster than NAM still. It is further north with the precip though, keep it north of Guthrie/Stillwater and slowly spreading further south as it gets well east of the Metro.

This is going to be one of those last minute calls based on exact placement of the boundaries tomorrow morning.

NAM has slowed some since yesterday's run. Based on that, outlined area below is the area with the risk of severe weather tomorrow. It looks like there is still a chance anything south of Highway 9 will be suppressed, but we'll see how things evolve tomorrow.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/13-fcst-1.png

12Z GFS keeps wabbling and is a little faster than NAM still. It is further north with the precip though, keep it north of Guthrie/Stillwater and slowly spreading further south as it gets well east of the Metro.

This is going to be one of those last minute calls based on exact placement of the boundaries tomorrow morning.

When you say outlined, I assume you mean the red? Hmm. I was going to go up to Edmond tomorrow afternoon but I think I will put it off until next week.

Yes sorry...I fixed it. :)

Yes sorry...I fixed it. :)

Are those 850mb winds? I see two sets of barbs. Cool graphics though.

Are those 850mb winds? I see two sets of barbs. Cool graphics though.

I really need to label better. Sorry surface winds. Then CAPE is outlined but not shaded in. The shaded in areas are surface dewpoint.

Updated Day 2 shrinks the MDT risk area quite a bit.

...S-CNTRL CONUS...
12Z/SAT RAOBS IN THE WRN GULF COAST STATES SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED EML
WITH A CAP AROUND 850 MB AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 10-13 G/KG.
ANOTHER DAY OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL MAINTAIN A PLUME OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MS
VALLEY. ABUNDANT MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND NRN MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT WEAKENING
OF UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CAP MAY DEVELOP LATE D1 INTO EARLY D2
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX. THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY STRENGTHEN WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...POTENTIALLY YIELDING PRE-FRONTAL/DRYLINE SEVERE
STORMS FROM E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

THE MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ON SUN
AFTERNOON INVOF THE TRIPLE-POINT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS FORMING AROUND
MIDDAY NEAR/NE OF THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SE KS.
GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT HERE ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE MEAN
WIND ALONG WITH THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS BEING SEVERE
HAIL/WIND.

FARTHER S FROM CNTRL OK TO N-CNTRL TX...INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 90 DEG F ACROSS SW OK/NW TX. MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE SUN EVENING AND
POSSIBLY MERGE WITH THE NRN MCS EVOLVING ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK SHIFTING E/SEWD OVER THE
MID-SOUTH SUN NIGHT.

Probabilities
Brown = 5%, Yellow = 15%, Red = 30%, Purple = 45% -- White = Hatched 15% significant threat area

Moderate Risk is also contained in the Purple area and the Slight risk is the areas in the yellow area.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/13-outlook-2.png

Protect the plants if you already put any out.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
131 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

OKZ004>032-034-035-038>043-046>048-130245-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FZ.A.0001.140415T0800Z-140415T1400Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-GREER-KIOWA-COMANCHE-
STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONG A...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...S EMINOLE...
HOLDENVILLE...MANGUM...HOBART...LAWTON...DUNCAN... PAULS VALLEY...
SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO... ATOKA
131 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT EARLY TUESDAY...

* MINIMUM TEMPERATURE: 27 TO 32 DEGREES F.

* IMPACTS: TENDER VEGETATION WOULD BE AFFECTED DURING THE EXPECTED
2 TO 6 HOURS BELOW FREEZING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THINK ABOUT HOW YOU WILL PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS FROM THE COLD.

Reiterating the theme for tomorrow - it all depends where the boundaries end up.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
201 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH
WINDS ABOUT 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING
INTO THE EVENING TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN
TIMING, BUT THEY BOTH PUSH THE DRYLINE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE FRONT RACING SOUTH. BY
NOON THE DRYLINE MAY BE NEAR AN EL RENO TO WALTERS LINE - THIS
TAKING THE AVERAGE OF POSITIONS BETWEEN THESE 2 MODELS. THE
SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE LEFT OUT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES; HOWEVER, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
LIKELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY. THE WINDOW IS
BASICALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING FAST. THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS (APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY) AND THE COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE 90S IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40 EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH IS
EFFECTIVE EARLY TUESDAY OF MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND LOWER
30S.

90's one day, mid-30's the next....lived in Oklahoma (nearly) all my life, lots of seasons, but the Jekyll-and-Hyde weather never ceases to amaze... :)

Some CU going up along the dryline in NW OK. Cap is pretty strong today, but they might be able to bust one through out west. If any make it through large hail is the main threat.

It's a good thing fire danger levels aren't well up there across much of the state. Today has been one of April's windiest days.

For those who may not know, downtown Oklahoma City finally has its own wundergroud web page. It features rapid fire data and a stunning webcam view of downtown. What more could you ask for?! It's at: Weather History for Weather Station KOKOKLAH72 | Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KOKOKLAH72)

It appears the dryline is about to go in KS and possible NW OK. CU is increasing rapidly up there.

protect the plants if you already put any out.

Urgent - weather message
national weather service norman ok
131 pm cdt sat apr 12 2014

okz004>032-034-035-038>043-046>048-130245-
/o.new.koun.fz.a.0001.140415t0800z-140415t1400z/
harper-woods-alfalfa-grant-kay-ellis-woodward-major-garfield-
noble-roger mills-dewey-custer-blaine-kingfisher-logan-payne-
beckham-wa****a-caddo-canadian-oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-
cleveland-pottawatomie-seminole-hughes-greer-kiowa-comanche-
stephens-garvin-murray-pontotoc-coal-carter-johnston-atoka-
including the cities of...buffalo...alva...cherokee...medford...
Ponca city...arnett...woodward...fairview...enid...perry ...
Cheyenne...taloga...weatherford...clinton...watong a...
Kingfisher...guthrie...stillwater...elk city...sayre...cordell...
Anadarko...yukon...el reno...mustang...oklahoma city...chandler...
Chickasha...purcell...norman...moore...shawnee...s eminole...
Holdenville...mangum...hobart...lawton...duncan... pauls valley...
Sulphur...ada...coalgate...ardmore...tishomingo... atoka
131 pm cdt sat apr 12 2014

...freeze watch is in effect early tuesday...

* minimum temperature: 27 to 32 degrees f.

* impacts: Tender vegetation would be affected during the expected
2 to 6 hours below freezing.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Think about how you will protect sensitive plants from the cold.)(&(*^*$^%#^%#%(*&(*^&*$^%#%^$^&$#%$#%$# words i am not allowed to say on here!!!!!!

New Day 1 should be out soon. 00Z NAM puts the Metro in play for severe weather tomorrow. 00Z GFS pushes it to the NE. New Euro will be out in an hour or so.

Chat room is up and going with the new platform I'm trying now. Twitter feeds are pulled out of the chat directly. Tested the new layout on an 8" tablet and it fit pretty well. Will try to have a mobile phone version done by tomorrow.