How often is the FB page updated?

Ugh...they must have changed it.

Rats. Cannot get new chat to work :(

How often is the FB page updated?

Once things get cranking I'll post more updates to it. I try not to spam out too much that isn't needed. :)

Rats. Cannot get new chat to work :(

Is it giving you any specific error? I'm not sure if they changed anything in the code since we last used it during the winter storms.

Just signed into the chat room and it asked for my name and email (the way it normally does the first time during an event) but posted my comment right away.

15Z HRRR run for 6PM this evening...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/15/SGP/hrrrSGP_sfc_radar_008.gif

Not streak of 2-5km Updraft Helicity E of OKC the following hour. Models seem to be struggling with the moisture ahead of the dryline and doing even worse with the dryness behind it.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/15/SGP/hrrrSGP_con_uphly_009.gif

Is it giving you any specific error? I'm not sure if they changed anything in the code since we last used it during the winter storms.

No, just shows the login window, and I put in a name and email....then after a time of contemplating its navel, it goes back to the chat window, but none of the messages ever appear. When I go to veirfy my screen name in the options window, it just spins forever.

Just checked out the Chat site. Kinda reminded me of the ole IRC and mIRC days.

No, just shows the login window, and I put in a name and email....then after a time of contemplating its navel, it goes back to the chat window, but none of the messages ever appear. When I go to veirfy my screen name in the options window, it just spins forever.

Venture, suspect its a firewall issue on my side. I can see other chats, just can't participate.

Venture, suspect its a firewall issue on my side. I can see other chats, just can't participate.

Alright...I won't try to start screwing with things then. LOL

Tornado Watch will be issued this afternoon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/mcd0248.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021919Z - 022115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR AN ANTICIPATED
DEVELOPMENT/INCREASE IN SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS.
MORE CERTAIN/IMMINENT SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE /LIKELY BEFORE 21Z/ FOR
RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 19Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES ROUGHLY W/SW TO
E/NE ACROSS NORTHERN OK...WITH PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS. AN
ADJACENT DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK.
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A CU FIELD HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DEEPENING
NEAR THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
AND FAR SOUTHEAST KS.

ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER
80S F...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
STEADILY ABATE...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF
2000-3500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE
SCENARIO OF WEAKENING INHIBITION IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MODIFICATIONS
TO A RECENT 18Z LAMONT OK OBSERVED SOUNDING.

WHILE LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE SUBTLE...ADDITIONAL
HEATING/SUFFICIENT MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AIDED BY 40-55 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS AND AFOREMENTIONED AMPLE INSTABILITY...VEERING/STRENGTHENING
WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. A TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OK/EXTREME SOUTHERN KS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT/WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE TOWARD
EARLY EVENING GIVEN AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING/BACKING OF 1-2 KM AGL
WINDS.

..GUYER/HART.. 04/02/2014

Per NWS Norman

Just got the dreaded NIMNAT message, announcing a conference call with SPC to discuss tornado watch. #okwx

The first tornado watch will not include the metro area.

Probably won't see a tornado watch for the dryline action unless a CU field gets established. Which right now, is not happening.

Okay well...it does include Kingfisher County which I think is still technically the Metro area. :)

Probably won't see a tornado watch for the dryline action unless a CU field gets established. Which right now, is not happening.

Today always felt as a two watch box day. One for the warm front and another for the dryline - if needed.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0046_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 46
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. STRONG
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING MAY ALSO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (10%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0046_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 46
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. STRONG
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING MAY ALSO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (10%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)



So, I'm guessing the odds of okc seeing any storms has diminished quite a bit?

So, I'm guessing the odds of okc seeing any storms has diminished quite a bit?

It was never high. This is a two area scenario. I just posted this in the chat...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/2-outlook.png

Area to the north is covered by the watch now to handle development along the front. The secondary area (purple) is for the dryline development, but that has always been in question.

The single-digit dewpoint temps and RH numbers behind the dryline are interesting.

It was never high. This is a two area scenario. I just posted this in the chat...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/2-outlook.png

Area to the north is covered by the watch now to handle development along the front. The secondary area (purple) is for the dryline development, but that has always been in question.

All quiet on the western front.

The two closest that I know of are at Baptist Hospital and at Peen Square. Neither is very close to Quail, though...

I tell you right now the one at Baptist is full...with employees......

NW OK is starting to go finally...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/2-1.png

This probably gets asked a lot in fact I probably have asked before but is there a defacto radar program to use for monitoring weather? Getting sick of using News9's ESP Radar on their site. Could be PC or iOS.

You might evaluate RadarScope for Mac and iOS. GRLevel3 for PC.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

NW OK is starting to go finally...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/2-1.png

NOT WAKITA!

http://i.imgur.com/KWvbh1u.jpg

NW OK development now in KS (the area NE of Enid is the wind farm). Additional cells trying west northwest of Tulsa.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/2-2.png

Some new development now on the dryline.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/2-3.png

Tornado watch is being shaved off some on the south side...

#OUN cancels Tornado Watch for Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Kingfisher [OK] till 10:00 PM CDTIEM :: Valid Time Extent Code (VTEC) App (http://t.co/3lxydSXDj0)

Well the weathervangelists must be bummed about how this fizzled out.. Now ok with regularly scheduled programming (and lives)

Big bust - Golf clap

Big bust - Golf clap

It wasn't a bust.......

The Oklahoma economy was stimulated by all the stormchasers buying gas, food, tires, mechanics, and hotel rooms during their cloud chasing. Sounds like an economic boom to me! lol ;)

Classic example of missing one or two key ingredients causing a bust. Today always went in with not everything lining up perfectly. Coverage was also going to be limited. The fact we had Payne and Morgan going off with their moderate risks did nothing but to ease tensions from this who are gun shy from last year. I doubt they will learn any lessons from this.

Side note... We already hit the cap for traffic on the chat room so it's good to figure that out now than during an out break.

I didn't watch any of the local weather coverage today. What tie was Mike Morgan wearing?

Storm outlook...

Looks like we have a break until the next real chance. Some showers and storm this Sunday mainly S and SE OK. Then mostly dry through the 11th. Chance of storms return on the 12th and could see some severe weather in western OK (granted this is way far out). After that looks quiet again. Of course all of this is subject to change and probably will.

I predict this storm season that Mike Morgan will be using the term "Shelter in Place" as much as Emily Sutton uses the word "Breezy". :)

Venture... With a potential triple point setting up today a few miles west of Tulsa today, where is your most likely area for tstorm development? I would think the storms would fire off rapidly at the intercept point of the cold front and dry line probably just east of Tulsa. Should the cap be much weaker and break today? I know that was the main issue yesterday as we couldn't get any vertical development in your guys area.

Venture... With a potential triple point setting up today a few miles west of Tulsa today, where is your most likely area for tstorm development? I would think the storms would fire off rapidly at the intercept point of the cold front and dry line probably just east of Tulsa. Should the cap be much weaker and break today? I know that was the main issue yesterday as we couldn't get any vertical development in your guys area.

See the latest HRRR to have an idea on where to look today: Loop (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014040311&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5)

Cold front getting ready to pass through Central OK. There is already severe weather taking place in SE OK and also along the AR border. Not sure how this will impact any initiation along the cold front as it gets into NE OK, but it might keep things from getting too crazy until it moves east of the state.

Well, I got to see a gustnado and pea sized hail covering the road... womp.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0261.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031733Z - 031900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS SE KS INTO NE
OK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED CU FIELD JUST
AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS SE KS SWD INTO NE OK. 17Z
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE IF ANY CAP REMAINED ACROSS THIS
REGION. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODIFIED 17Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS /AT LEAST INITIALLY/. AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL WAVE
IMPINGES ON THE REGION...STORMS MAY TEND TOWARD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS STRUCTURES. EITHER WAY...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM
AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL
DEVELOPMENT.

PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 0049 WOULD LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO SW MO/NW AR.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014

And so a strong line of storms have formed from near the northeast corner of Oklahoma southwest to I-40. Tulsa will miss out on much of good and bad part of it, since that part of the line got started there overhead.

A couple of tornado watches are up now for eastern and south central OK. I'm at work so can't let them right now.

Nice supercell on the end of that line, near Denton TX.

Nice supercell on the end of that line, near Denton TX.

They just reported a tornado on the ground in Denton.

Shut out of the live chat. :calvin:

Shut out of the live chat. :calvin:

Yeah they changed how they count users I pay for now. It is every impression now instead of unique user. So I'm going to find a new system since we will peg the limit really fat on any major day. I have an idea that might be pretty neat. :)

Well, don't break your budget!

Ch 9 (DP) indicated last night that the next chance for severe storms would be in about 10 days...
That would be about the 13th

In the mean time lets hope we get some rain.

Well, don't break your budget!

No worries on that. It'll be extra work, but if I can pull it off it'll be better. :)


Ch 9 (DP) indicated last night that the next chance for severe storms would be in about 10 days...
That would be about the 13th

They should put out another of their homegrown Moderate Risks now for it...or maybe just go right to High. sigh

Maybe they should issue their own PDS watch.

Maybe they should issue their own PDS watch.

Oh god. Thanks. Now they are going to. LOL

Storm outlook for this week is pretty quiet overall, with a couple opportunities...

Thursday PM - Very slight chance for a storm in SW OK if anything can form, but right now looks like a very low chance.

Saturday/Early Sunday - Complex day overall. Good push of moisture moving up through the day. We'll have a dryline somewhere out west, maybe near SW OK, a surface low in the TX PH, and then a cold front coming down from KS. GFS has some rain and storms early moving through SW OK before noon and Central OK by mid afternoon. Instability seems to build behind the early convection and storms will form up along the front in KS and also ahead of the surface low in W OK. Looks like most of the activity will remain north of I-40 on Saturday and for most of Sunday. As the front gets past the main body of Oklahoma on Sunday storms should pop up along the entire boundary.

Right now, I wouldn't expect anything too severe for Oklahoma but we'll need to keep and eye on things to see if timing works out any better for storm development.

Longer range nothing major showing up.

Isolated storms are starting to develop in NW OK and will move SE through the day. They will increase as we approve peak heating with the main risk being some gusty winds and small hail.

Some small hail reports showing up now in southern KS. Would expect the same as these smaller showers/storms increase in intensity.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/7-1.png

So is it true we may be looking at an arctic front and a freeze next week?

So is it true we may be looking at an arctic front and a freeze next week?

I wouldn't really call it arctic. :) We might see a few nights in the 30s about 11-12 days out.

Pleeeaaaase don't get below freezing.. that would suck

I haven't planted anything outside yet for a reason. :)

Raining now on I-240 and Shields