Soonerdave... Also, Slight, moderate, and high refers to all types of Severe weather. I understand in a way the torcon does also, but for the most part torcon gives the casual observer the chances of a tornado happening within a 50 mile radius of whatever destination they choose (e.g. Eastern OK/Central OK). It helps people understand in a way what the chances of tornadoes are. Some people get confused with slight, moderate, and high cause that could mean different things. It's kind of like people not knowing the difference between watches and warnings if that makes since to you. I never said it was a perfect system though sir

That's fine. We just disagree on its motives/utility. The notion is to simplify it over "slight/moderate/high", yet to understand their 1-10 semantics you have to go to their chart, and read what all the numbers mean. And driving folks to their site/charts/channel is, naturally, what it's all about.

Different strokes, I guess. Too much harem-scarem in my book, but that's just me.

I agree with that aspect of it, they absolutely do some things to boost ratings no doubt about it.

Too much harem-scarem in my book, but that's just me.It's a bit difficult for most of us to realize just how far the art of weather prediction has come in the last 70 years. We tend to forget that the whole theory of "fronts" only began during WW2, and the very first tornado forecast issued anywhere was in 1948, by the weather officer at Tinker AFB -- and it was accurate! Civilians didn't get such forecasts until later, and then they were very cautiously worded to prevent panic.

During the mid-50s, I was the assigned weather writer for The Oklahoman and kept very close contact with Tom Kyle, the man in charge of the NWS station at Will Rogers Field and who issued the first civilian tornado warning (turns out he's a distant cousin though neither of us knew it at the time). He loaned me a few of the standard weather textbooks used in training new meteorologists. The universal theme, then, was that the best predictor of what would happen on April 2, 2014, was the history of what DID happen on April 2, 2013, and the second best predictor was the average of what had happened on all preceding April 2s. None of this concern with highs, lows, and those new-fangled fronts.

Which is not to say that Tom actually followed that advice; it just shows how recently the art became backed up by science. He also taught me about the hook echo, which had been discovered in South Pacific typhoons during the war, but cautioned me not to make its existence public because it couldn't distinguish between rotation at 5,000 feet and that on the ground. He issued warnings only after spotters confirmed a funnel on the ground.

And spotters were an essential part of the system even that far back. I was an active ham radio operator at the time, and often went to the weather bureau office to man the base station when spotters were in the field. They chased for two reasons: to warn the public, and to get movies of the storms for the NWS labs to better understand what was going on. The fellows I dispatched went out in teams of two: a ham operator who communicated and drove, and a NWS cameraman.

It's a bit difficult for most of us to realize just how far the art of weather prediction has come in the last 70 years. We tend to forget that the whole theory of "fronts" only began during WW2, and the very first tornado forecast issued anywhere was in 1948, by the weather officer at Tinker AFB -- and it was accurate! Civilians didn't get such forecasts until later, and then they were very cautiously worded to prevent panic.

During the mid-50s, I was the assigned weather writer for The Oklahoman and kept very close contact with Tom Kyle, the man in charge of the NWS station at Will Rogers Field and who issued the first civilian tornado warning (turns out he's a distant cousin though neither of us knew it at the time). He loaned me a few of the standard weather textbooks used in training new meteorologists. The universal theme, then, was that the best predictor of what would happen on April 2, 2014, was the history of what DID happen on April 2, 2013, and the second best predictor was the average of what had happened on all preceding April 2s. None of this concern with highs, lows, and those new-fangled fronts.

Which is not to say that Tom actually followed that advice; it just shows how recently the art became backed up by science. He also taught me about the hook echo, which had been discovered in South Pacific typhoons during the war, but cautioned me not to make its existence public because it couldn't distinguish between rotation at 5,000 feet and that on the ground. He issued warnings only after spotters confirmed a funnel on the ground.

And spotters were an essential part of the system even that far back. I was an active ham radio operator at the time, and often went to the weather bureau office to man the base station when spotters were in the field. They chased for two reasons: to warn the public, and to get movies of the storms for the NWS labs to better understand what was going on. The fellows I dispatched went out in teams of two: a ham operator who communicated and drove, and a NWS cameraman.

Awesome stuff, Jim! Thanks for sharing. I really thought about taking one of the spotter training sessions this year, but I just kept getting overcome by events...LOL

I remember listening to KTOK and they would sometimes relay warnings from ham operators.

And I love how the overarching theme was to avoid inciting a public panic.

It's a bit difficult for most of us to realize just how far the art of weather prediction has come in the last 70 years. We tend to forget that the whole theory of "fronts" only began during WW2, and the very first tornado forecast issued anywhere was in 1948, by the weather officer at Tinker AFB -- and it was accurate! Civilians didn't get such forecasts until later, and then they were very cautiously worded to prevent panic.

During the mid-50s, I was the assigned weather writer for The Oklahoman and kept very close contact with Tom Kyle, the man in charge of the NWS station at Will Rogers Field and who issued the first civilian tornado warning (turns out he's a distant cousin though neither of us knew it at the time). He loaned me a few of the standard weather textbooks used in training new meteorologists. The universal theme, then, was that the best predictor of what would happen on April 2, 2014, was the history of what DID happen on April 2, 2013, and the second best predictor was the average of what had happened on all preceding April 2s. None of this concern with highs, lows, and those new-fangled fronts.

Which is not to say that Tom actually followed that advice; it just shows how recently the art became backed up by science. He also taught me about the hook echo, which had been discovered in South Pacific typhoons during the war, but cautioned me not to make its existence public because it couldn't distinguish between rotation at 5,000 feet and that on the ground. He issued warnings only after spotters confirmed a funnel on the ground.

And spotters were an essential part of the system even that far back. I was an active ham radio operator at the time, and often went to the weather bureau office to man the base station when spotters were in the field. They chased for two reasons: to warn the public, and to get movies of the storms for the NWS labs to better understand what was going on. The fellows I dispatched went out in teams of two: a ham operator who communicated and drove, and a NWS cameraman.

Great stuff......thanks
I believe we would all like to hear more..... perhaps on a separate thread

Updated risk area for tomorrow...brings is much further south on the 30% and also the hatched area. Hatched are is roughly the OKC metro back to the east and north.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED THRU WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE S CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK
PLATEAU REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL
REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND
BEYOND. WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE REMNANTS OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW /NOW DIGGING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST/ APPEAR
LIKELY TO TURN EASTWARD/EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE... MID-LEVEL RIDGING
APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS REGION...IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN IMPULSE...A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE
FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SLOWING
WESTERN FLANK IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL...BEFORE RETREATING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT ONLY MODEST LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN JUST
HOW QUICKLY /AND HOW FAR NORTH/ THE COLD CENTRAL PLAINS BOUNDARY
LAYER MODIFIES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A CONTINUING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF A
MODIFYING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FINALLY ADVECT
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK
PLATEAU REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BENEATH
RESIDUALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR...THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE
CAPE...AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...S CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU...
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITHIN A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME... ABOVE THE
COLD SURFACE BASED AIR...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY LINGER WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY
AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...MID-LEVEL CAPPING BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGING PROBABLY
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT
SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR...MORE LIKELY...EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SEEMS MOST
PROBABLE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE RETREATING SURFACE FRONT AND
STRENGTHENING DRY LINE...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING
CONCERNING EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL BE POSITIONED.

REGARDLESS...IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO
CONSOLIDATE/GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BASED LARGELY ON THE ECMWF AND
NAM...THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

..KERR.. 04/01/2014

The short of the discussion above. Discrete supercells where convection initiates on the west side of this outlook area and it will turn into an MCS as it moves east of us.

Mcs?

Mesoscale Convective System = MCS

Hrrr showing storms firing around 4pm or so just east of 44 in sw ok.

^^thats fine by me

Mesoscale Convective System = MCS

Thank you.


A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a complex of thunderstorms that becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms but smaller than extratropical cyclones, and normally persists for several hours or more. (shortened definition)

Warm front surging north right now. Could see development along this line tonight. However, this low cloud deck has really kept instability down today. It is trying to burn off in S OK.

Could it turn into a derecho?

Could it turn into a derecho?

Huh?





MD out for SC OK. Large hail main threat. Temperatures down there are in the 80s with DP in the 60s.

So far just one lone severe storm in NW TX. One cell has tried near Duncan but is falling apart now.

Watch out.

Watch county notification for watch 45
national weather service norman ok
623 pm cdt tue apr 1 2014

okc015-019-027-031-033-049-051-067-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-
133-137-141-txc009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-020600-
/o.new.koun.sv.a.0045.140401t2325z-140402t0600z/

the national weather service has issued severe thunderstorm watch
45 in effect until 1 am cdt wednesday for the following areas

in oklahoma this watch includes 18 counties

in central oklahoma

cleveland grady mcclain
pottawatomie

in east central oklahoma

pontotoc seminole

in southeast oklahoma

johnston marshall

in southern oklahoma

carter garvin jefferson
love murray stephens

in southwest oklahoma

caddo comanche cotton
tillman

in texas this watch includes 8 counties

in northern texas

archer baylor clay
foard hardeman knox
wichita wilbarger

this includes the cities of...ada...anadarko...archer city...
Ardmore...chickasha...chillicothe...crowell...dunc an...
Frederick...henrietta...knox city...lawton...madill...marietta...
Moore...munday...norman...pauls valley...purcell...quanah...
Seminole...seymour...shawnee...sulphur...tishoming o...vernon...
Walters...waurika and wichita falls.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0045_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 45
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO
2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
CHICKASHA OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE OVER WW AREA...WHERE MODEST
LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG NW-ADVANCING DRY LINE AND DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL PERSIST BENEATH FAVORABLE DEEP WIND PROFILES. WHILE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
COOL WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...SETUP MAY NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT
A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR
A TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR WARM FRONT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (20%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (<2%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Low (20%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Low (<5%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (40%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (30%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (70%)

Things are starting to go...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/kfdr_20140401_2342.png

Another cell is trying just to the west of Duncan. Everything is moving roughly NE.

Looks like CIN is building back in and those two cells really couldn't get established.

Things staying pretty quiet now. One loan supercell in Thockmorton County, TX is all that is out there right now - it is TOR warned as well.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/kdyx_20140402_0030.png

Things staying pretty quiet now. One loan supercell in Thockmorton County, TX is all that is out there right now - it is TOR warned as well.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/kdyx_20140402_0030.png

Damn those pictures are impressive.

Has anything changed for tomorrow? KFOR has most activity focused on OKC tomrorow while News9 has pushed it more into northeastern Oklahoma.

Great Graphics...Venture! What OKCMallen wrote!

00Z NAM is in

Analysis:
Current run paints a somewhat more worrisome picture for a large portion of Oklahoma with a large area of very unstable air (CAPE values 3000+) covering the majority of central OK. The main inhibitor will be a cap that should be overcome by surface heating by 5 or 6pm. I would not be surprised to see SPC upgrade tomorrow's outlook to a moderate risk in its next update.

A couple of selected graphics:

Instability (CAPE):
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_con_sbcape_024.gif

Dryline (surface dewpoints):
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_sfc_dewp_024.gif

Tagging on to what Soonr said...NAM is definitely more centralized over Oklahoma than what is has been (previous runs were a bit further north). If there is any chance the cap will break, and the NAM actually has some activity forming in the early evening, then I would almost say high end Slight Risk or Moderate for tomorrow. This sounding is just sick...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_NAM_024_35.39,-97.31_skewt_SB.gif

And GFS is equally as worrisome, though is further west with the dryline. I'm now a little nervous about tomorrow (and still can't decide if I can afford to take off work to chase). String of supercells entering the metro around sunset with some of those parameters and the low-level jet kicking in isn't fantastic news for those who don't enjoy storms. Of course it is possible they all avoid the metro and/or the cap doesn't break, but I am definitely more concerned for the central part of the state than I was.

(Sorry, bchris... try to breathe. :P )

And GFS is equally as worrisome, though is further west with the dryline. I'm now a little nervous about tomorrow (and still can't decide if I can afford to take off work to chase). String of supercells entering the metro around sunset with some of those parameters and the low-level jet kicking in isn't fantastic news for those who don't enjoy storms. Of course it is possible they all avoid the metro and/or the cap doesn't break, but I am definitely more concerned for the central part of the state than I was.

(Sorry, bchris... try to breathe. :P )

Yeah...GFS doesn't really break away from NAM much. Chat room will be going tomorrow. I am off work and finished up with jury duty today...so we should everyone covered here. :)

SPC site is busted so NWS Norman shared this on twitter...

We are still at a slight risk for today but the risk area is further west again.

http://static.ow.ly/photos/original/56mU7.png

...srn ks into ok and nwrn tx during the day...
Strong instability with mucape on the order of 3500 j/kg will
materialize s of the warm front and e of the dryline owing to steep
lapse rates aloft and dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s f.
With cyclogenesis occurring farther w...the dryline will tend to
remain stationary or back slightly. Forecast soundings show that
capping will exist over much of the warm sector during the day...but
cin will be eroded in a narrow zone of deeper mixing near the
dryline from nwrn tx across wrn ok and to the triple point over nwrn
ok. Daytime development along the dryline is uncertain given the
weak forcing for ascent. However...supercells capable of very large
hail and a few tornadoes will be possible with any dryline storms.
The most likely area for development will be over nwrn ok and
extending newd across srn/sern ks during the evening along the warm
front.

Venture/ANON.... Current models look like there will be a triple point setup tomorrow just west of Tulsa with Tulsa being the "epicenter" of any activity. What does it look like from your guys perspective?

All of the large-scale models that use convective parameterizations show storms breaking out while just about all of the convection-resolving hi-res models don't, which is opposite of what you'd normally see. I'm sure if widespread storms were to form a MOD from SPC would be possible if not likely. Just. Big a question of if and where.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

Main story today...lift will be marginal, cap is around, but if anything breaks the cap it has the potential to make it a bad day for someone. Today doesn't look like a widespread severe weather day, but it takes one lone supercell with giant hail and a tornado to make headlines. Watch the newest run of the HRRR come in, it continues to show a couple isolated supercells form along the dryline late this afternoon. IF this happens initial storms will have a main threat of very large hail. If they can remain sustained getting in the 7PM to 10PM window tonight, the tornado potential will increase substantially for a short period of time.

Today is really coming down to a nowcast type situation. The more heating we get today, the increased risk of storms being able to form. This morning we have some scattered low level clouds but the sun is also breaking through in places as well. Morning upper air sounding from Norman shows an unstable atmosphere but also a pretty stout cap as well.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/raob/KOUN/skewt/KOUN.skewt.20140402.12.gif

I would expect that we'll probably see a tornado watch be tossed up for some point late this afternoon and this evening, but like yesterday - the coverage is going to be limited in the watch area. Just keep an ear open as things develop today.

Venture... According to your current data, where in OK would you say the highest probability of cap breaking and storm development would be? I would think it would be somewhere north of OKC vicinity and move off to the East/Northeast in to NE OK. Just a question

Venture... According to your current data, where in OK would you say the highest probability of cap breaking and storm development would be? I would think it would be somewhere north of OKC vicinity and move off to the East/Northeast in to NE OK. Just a question

If you're talking about supercells, western to northwest OK. Closest to triple point.

If you're talking about severe storms, north central and northeast OK. Along warm front.

When temperatures are 70+ with mid 60 dewpoints at 10am, something is going to break through this afternoon. It is just a matter of where.

I would not be surprised to see a MODERATE risk update in W/NW OK. However, I can also see them leaving SLIGHT due to the bust potential with a stubborn cap. Tough first spring forecast!

Sun starting to break through the clouds here in Tulsa, air Very saturated and Very humid. Heating of the atmosphere should take place this afternoon, starting to become very very warm here.

New HRRR is getting more and more aggressive on convection development.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/13/SGP/hrrrSGP_sfc_radar_011.gif

Does this warrant canceling my evening plans tonight or should I continue going about my normal business?

Does this warrant canceling my evening plans tonight or should I continue going about my normal business?

Just stay aware...don't cancel anything.

Venture... When is that model you posted valid

Venture... When is that model you posted valid

Time stamp is at the top.

Does this warrant canceling my evening plans tonight or should I continue going about my normal business?

I would probably at this point continue with your evening plans and take another look about an hr or so before you head out tonight and make a decision on cancelling your plans at that time. That's what I plan on doing

Does anyone know of a parking garage around quail springs mall? I don't think the mall actually has one.

Venture... I asked because for some reason on my internet it cuts off some of the photo...

Venture... I asked because for some reason on my internet it cuts off some of the photo...

13Z run for 7PM today.

Does anyone know of a parking garage around quail springs mall? I don't think the mall actually has one.The two closest that I know of are at Baptist Hospital and at Peen Square. Neither is very close to Quail, though...

Just an initial FYI, I do have the chat room open for today. I'm looking in every few minutes to make sure I don't miss anything...but feel free to drop in.

So I am guess 7PM is the time to watch for things to fire up?

So I am guess 7PM is the time to watch for things to fire up?

6-10PM looks like the main period of threat, IMO.

Chat room is sign in only now?

I will join in, in a bit. Have to actually do "work" things. :phone:

Chat room is sign in only now?

I will join in, in a bit. Have to actually do "work" things. :phone:

Ugh...they must have changed it.

Feeling soupy out there. I didn't comment on the chat room but it didn't look like I needed to sign in.

Ugh...they must have changed it.

VEnture, I'm in the chatroom, it *did* want me to sign in, but I just provided a name and an email. But no messages are showing up..

Venture.. Is your chat room just the live chat place on your weather spotlight or are you referring to somewhere else?

SPC no upgrade to risk level. But they have added 30% hatched for large hail in NC to NE OK.

Venture.. Is your chat room just the live chat place on your weather spotlight or are you referring to somewhere else?

Yes...the link in my sig.

15Z HRRR run for 6PM this evening...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/15/SGP/hrrrSGP_sfc_radar_008.gif