Generally a convective mess out there right now. Individual cells are moving NNE at 50 mph. Hail cores continue to pop up, reach severe limits, and then die.

Dryline is racing in from the west...already around US 183 at this point.

Mike Morgan just said widespread golfball sized hail with busted out windows in homes and vehicles in NW OKC.

#OUN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OUN&src=hash) issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Canadian, Kingfisher, Logan, Oklahoma [OK] till 7:00 AM CDT

Pea-sized hail for about two minutes at NW 122 and Council...

7638

This patch is heading towards downtown. Gorgeous clouds all morning.

Pretty much all over now at NW 122 and Council...

Heavy rain - pea size hail SW Midwest City


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Any idea when and where the storms are likely to fire up east of us?

Any idea when and where the storms are likely to fire up east of us?

LOL!! Ya done slept through em, PQ! They came through Hefner and Council at exactly 5:59 this A.M. :-)

So far looks like Oklahoma may be in good shape for tomorrow. Dryline is already to Tulsa down to Madill. People west of that line are clear for tomorrow. Hopefully the early storms worked things over to keep instabilities down. We'll have to see how things evolve though. Dryline trying to fill in south of Tulsa and might find some recovered air to play in this afternoon.

So far looks like Oklahoma may be in good shape for tomorrow. Dryline is already to Tulsa down to Madill. People west of that line are clear for tomorrow. Hopefully the early storms worked things over to keep instabilities down. We'll have to see how things evolve though. Dryline trying to fill in south of Tulsa and might find some recovered air to play in this afternoon.

For some education, what determines where the dryline is if one can't go by dewpoint? Because in nearly all the eastern half of Oklahoma the dewpoint is near 60 or over as of 11:15am.

For some education, what determines where the dryline is if one can't go by dewpoint? Because in nearly all the eastern half of Oklahoma the dewpoint is near 60 or over as of 11:15am.

Yeah good catch, I was looking at the winds starts to shift to the southwest as a sign the dryline was approaching/moving through. The storms on the northern edge pushed ahead of the dryline, so yeah the north end is still about 40 miles further west. Southern part of it is still going to be down around Madill.

Regardless looks like new development isn't happening on the northern portion compared to the south. Short term models keep redevelopment confined to EC and SE OK for the rest of the day.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014042714/t5/cref_t5sfc_f07.png

What will likely be a PDS Red box...will be issued soon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0420.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL ARKANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271725Z - 271930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MESOSCALE AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19Z-20Z.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ERN KS SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NRN MS THROUGH CNTRL ARKANSAS. THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS A STRONG LLJ ADVECTS UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOWED BY MULTILAYER CLOUDS
INCLUDING STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW NUMEROUS CLOUD BREAKS...AND THE STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MAY EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. AN AXIS OF 1500-2500
J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A PRE-FRONTAL BELT OF ASCENT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EWD
PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE CONTINUES FROM WRN ARKANSAS THROUGH NWRN
TX. MEANWHILE AN UPPER JET STREAK ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH NRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY
FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE IN WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS ALONG THE PACIFIC
FRONT. STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER JET AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL. THE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS APPEAR MAXIMIZED ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING REINFORCED BY ELEVATED CONVECTION.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014

Standard Watch...non-PDS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0097_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0094.html)...WW 95 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0095.html)...WW 96 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0096.html)...

DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED SCENARIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT
FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS LONG THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT IN ERN OK/NE TX...AND NEAR AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AR. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TIME...AND WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG TORNADO RISK BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AR. OTHERWISE...THE MORE
INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


High (90%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Mod (60%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (50%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Mod (30%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


High (80%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (60%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (>95%)

Guess we got real lucky these came in the morning instead of afternoon...Weather Watch on FB says no storms for the next 9 days...Be fine with a below average precip in May followed by an above average June

Guess we got real lucky these came in the morning instead of afternoon...Weather Watch on FB says no storms for the next 9 days...Be fine with a below average precip in May followed by an above average June

That doesn't mean we'll get away from severe weather if you try to stack the precip in June. :)

As far as quiet for the next 9 days...ehhh. Maybe. The GFS Ensemble members are pretty well together suggestion quiet until the 6th of May then they start splitting up with some bringing in storms after that. So yeah...possible we could go that long, but we'll just have to see.

Guess we got real lucky these came in the morning instead of afternoon...Weather Watch on FB says no storms for the next 9 days...Be fine with a below average precip in May followed by an above average June

I agree. Hopefully we can get some good rains out of the northwest flow like we did last year. This morning's rain did a lot of good. Ponds and creeks near where I live that have been dry for a long time now are flowing again.

The first high risk of the year...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.gif

When is our next chance of serious rain?

I'm digging a big hole in my back yard early next week on May 6th so I could use a stretch of dry weather.....
but we are so desperately dry that I think it's going to take tropical rains to really break the back of the drought on the great plains.

When is our next chance of serious rain?

I'm digging a big hole in my back yard early next week on May 6th so I could use a stretch of dry weather.....
but we are so desperately dry that I think it's going to take tropical rains to really break the back of the drought on the great plains.

May 6th-ish. Subject to change of course.

At this point our only hope against the drought would probably be a landfalling storm in the Gulf this year.

Sure why not...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
229 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

OKZ004>007-009>012-014>018-021>024-033>038-TXZ083>085-087-280100-
/O.NEW.KOUN.DU.Y.0001.140427T1929Z-140428T0100Z/
/O.CON.KOUN.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-140428T0100Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-
CANADIAN-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-KNOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...CHEYENNE...T ALOGA...
WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...KINGFISHER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...
CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...HOLLIS...
MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON...QUA NAH...
CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY
229 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST TO WEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 4 PM.

* VISIBILITIES: 1/2 TO 3 MILES AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES MAY LOCALLY
BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO NEAR OPEN FIELDS.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL OR IF YOU ARE WORKING OR PLAYING
OUTSIDE.

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0100_overview_wou.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DE QUEEN
ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0095.html)...WW 96 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0096.html)...WW 97 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0097.html)...WW
98 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0098.html)...WW 99 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0099.html)...

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN SE OK...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S IN NE TX THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND
MATURE...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TORNADOES IN AR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND THE LOW LEVELS
WILL SLOWLY WARM AND MOISTEN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG TRACK...STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES WELL INTO
THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


High (>95%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


High (80%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (50%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Mod (30%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


High (80%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (60%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (>95%)

Going to be chaotic day in AR.

Here comes the dust...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Storm moving towards Spencerville and Rattan in SE OK starting to show signs of getting ready to spin up. Nice arc on the bottom side of the storm, hail size increasing...would expect velocity to start showing signs as well.

Cell is now tornado warned

The national weather service in tulsa has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northeastern choctaw county in southeast oklahoma...
South central pushmataha county in southeast oklahoma...
* until 500 pm cdt

* at 411 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm with strong low level
rotation that could produce a tornado at any time was located near
messer...and moving northeast at 35 mph.

If you know anyone by Joplin - call them!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...


* UNTIL 615 PM CDT


* AT 548 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR GALENA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.


THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND NEAR
GALENA. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BAXTER SPRINGS.


SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.


IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
POSSIBLE.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...ASBURY...BAXTER SPRINGS...BROOKLYN
HEIGHTS...CARL JUNCTION...CARTERVILLE...CARTHAGE...CARYTOWN...
CRESTLINE...DENNIS ACRES...DUQUESNE...GALENA...IRON GATES...
JASPER...JOPLIN...LAKESIDE...LAWTON...LOWELL...NEC K CITY...
NEUTRAL...OAKLAND PARK...ORONOGO...PURCELL...RIVERTON...SHOAL CREEK
DRIVE...WACO AND WEBB CITY.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/27-3.png

May 6th-ish. Subject to change of course.

At this point our only hope against the drought would probably be a landfalling storm in the Gulf this year.
I thought I heard we could possibly be looking at an El Nino pattern this summer. Is that not the case any longer?

I thought I heard we could possibly be looking at an El Nino pattern this summer. Is that not the case any longer?

We are going into an El Nino pattern...how strong is yet to be determined.

NWS Tulsa - 532 pm, there was a possible tornado in Quapaw in Ottawa county. N end of town sustained heavy damage. #okwx (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash)

We are going into an El Nino pattern...how strong is yet to be determined.

If it is strong what does it mean for us Okies?

Already two deaths being reported out of Quapaw. :( No warning at all was out at the time. Very sad.

Official: 2 dead after tornado hits Quapaw, Oklahoma; extent of damage still unknown | wwltv.com New Orleans (http://www.wwltv.com/news/national/256914361.html)

Image by Shawn Reynolds.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t1.0-9/11953_10153129509299897_4040926563943945808_n.jpg

If it is strong what does it mean for us Okies?

Hopefully it mean loads of moisture for Okla over the next couple of months......but im not holding my breath.

After this morns rainfall I was surprised to see the weatherman say the NW sides of OKC only got like 1/10 of an inch or so.

Terrible news from Quapaw. Worst yet that Tulsa didn't even have a warning on it. Usually they go overkill on warnings.

As far as the El Nino discussion...I'm going to start a separate thread on it since we are almost at the end of this month and it is something that will impact us for more than one month.

Tornado warning for NW of Little Rock AR...
Probably a very large tornado and long tracked

Serious stuff...

720 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014


...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MAUMELLE AND MORGAN...


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL PULASKI...EAST
CENTRAL PERRY AND SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...


AT 715 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
LAKE MAUMELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.


THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MAUMELLE AND MORGAN. TAKE COVER NOW.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/27-4.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/27-5.png

Tornado Emergency expanded to additional burbs...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MAYFLOWER AND VILONIA...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...


* UNTIL 800 PM CDT


* AT 724 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF ROLAND...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MAUMELLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Center Hill next to take a direct hit. Sigh.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/27-7.png

Thats a pretty good size storm, I hope the damage is minimal

Yesterday was a good example of how tedious these things are.

I think there was only one tornado report in the 'High Risk' area. And overall, only 27 reports for such a large risk area was low. Many of those reports are from the one monster that went north of Little Rock. This goes to show you, a risk of tornados over a general area is usually meaningless to the majority of people in it. However, the communities it does affect, see that risk as validated.

EDIT: On second glance, looks like the HIGH risk was barely encompassing Little Rock. So it did capture the tornado with the multiple reports.



Back to OK weather... Our drought is intensifying. Here in Central OK we are on track for the 3rd driest year ever right now. We are over 6 inches below normal to date in 2014.

This is a long post with a lot of graphics - so just beware. :)

Looking out in the long range...really nothing for this week right now. We are going to be stuck under this massive trough that is pushing the existing storm through through. We might get into a northwest flow for Saturday, but the jet stream is going to be transition well north pretty quickly. Zonal flow for much of the weekend until Tuesday when the next big trough digs into the west. Since we know how accurate longer ranger models are this is a toss up, but GFS has consistent shown us getting into a more unstable pattern after the first few days in May.

As we saw with this current/last system timing can be everything. On Saturday we had very high instability and many ingredients for severe weather. The problem was the upper level support wasn't timed right and the cap killed any surface based convection. So with anything discussed here just keep in mind, we can have perfect conditions for severe weather...but may get zip if one feature isn't available.

The Gulf is going to be shut down for us for most of the week. By this weekend we should start to see some moisture return, and as it looks now definitely by Monday with dews getting back into the 60s.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/US/gfsUS_sfc_dewp_180.gif

This is going to be ahead of the next big storm system, but per the 12Z GFS is going to have a large positively tilted trough just off to the our west by Wednesday. Typically for severe weather we are going to be looking for a negative tilt to a trough coming through so we will have to see if it adjusts beyond 7AM Thursday. Side note, COD's GFS products stop at 240 hrs out, TwisterData's will go beyond that time frame but their data feed is very slow and won't be available for another hour.

250MB Winds at 7AM Thursday...hints at a batch of energy moving overhead on Thursday.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/US/gfsUS_250_spd_240.gif

If I jump back to the 06Z model to get a look further out it shows another trough digging into the west by the first part of the following week and possibly setting us up for some stormy weather getting into mid month.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/04/28/06/GFS_3_2014042806_F384_WSPD_250_MB.png

Okay so rain chances. The next day that the GFS has actual precip over Oklahoma is May 7th. Not good if you are anti-drought. However, this is always subject to change. We've been talking about it awhile that we would see storm chances return starting somewhere from May 4th to 6th...and this has been pretty consistent, but it has been sliding around a bit. Our big problem is getting this current storm kicked out faster to reopen the Gulf. Regardless, instability does build in starting next week...

Monday the 5th is the first day with much instability in the state thanks to the moisture return.

On the left you can see the instability/CAPE values over the state. The hashed areas is CIN or convective inhibition rates. High CIN in high CAPE areas usually equals pretty sunny days that are nice and muggy with storms struggling to go up. We see here a very unstable atmosphere in the area on Monday, but also high CIN. There are a few areas of weakens we see around the Metro area back to the Northeast - especially in SE KS and WC MO. The surface setup would have us with 60-65 degree dewpoints and a dryline cutting through West Central OK over to Lawton and down I-44 into TX. This could give us a setup for maybe a storm or two to form on the dryline if there is a focused area of lift that would be capable of breaking the cap. On the sounding to the right we see a very ideal severe weather setup with near perfect values across the board except for a cap value near 5. If that verifies then nothing is going to happen. Precip. Water values aren't the best either at 0.92...typically we want to see them just above an inch, but we've had storms in drier air. So that's Monday.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_sbcape_180.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_180_35.19,-97.43_skewt_SB.gif
Getting into Tuesday May 6th we have much of the same as Monday...very high, even higher, instability but also decent CIN values across the area. The forecast sounding continues with a strong cap with overall ideal severe weather conditions, though the directional shear isn't the best.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_sbcape_204.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_204_35.19,-97.43_skewt_SB.gif
Now into Wednesday the 7th, we see some changes as that upper level storm gets closer. CIN is completely gone in the high instability area west of I-35. The forecast sounding for Central Oklahoma reflects a much weaker cap and overall a very good setup for severe weather. Looks like the dryline stays out in W OK for most of the day though, so I would imagine this could be one of those classic W OK days that chasers and spotters like - open fields and perfect views.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_sbcape_228.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_228_35.19,-97.43_skewt_SB.gif
I can't get specific for Thursday yet since COD's product doesn't go that far and TwisterData still hasn't caught up. LOL A lot of this really doesn't matter though. The forecast is going to change, but I wanted to take some extra time of looking at these days in a more detailed way versus some of the short discussions I toss out there. Will any of this happen? It is hard to say. A lot of things can change in the next week and we've also see models completely botch forecasts the same day - let alone over a week out. We dodged a bullet with this last system having the upper level energy come in about 6-12 hours too late to make use of the (otherwise) prime conditions we had. We are going into May...the peak of the season for us, normally. We aren't going to get lucky every time and activity has been showing up for next week pretty consistently now. So we'll just have to see how it plays out. I won't be shocked if in a day or two the forecast for next week completely changes but then snaps back a day or two later. Just the nature of the beast.

Thanks Venture.
I enjoy reading the type of post you just made and very much understand that its very subject to change at any moment.

Venture, if every single thing you posted does not exactly happen as said right now, I will be very upset and it will entirely be your fault! ;) lol j/k

Thanks for that though. Better than watching the ratings machine go on about a bunch of crap.

Climatically speaking, what causes thunderstorms to become far less severe going into June? Is it because the jet stream trough moves north? Is there any long range predictions as to when that will happen in 2014?

In addition, is it possible to get a good soaker in May without severe weather or does pretty much all precipitation come in the form of supercells or squall lines?

Climatically speaking, what causes thunderstorms to become far less severe going into June? Is it because the jet stream trough moves north? Is there any long range predictions as to when that will happen in 2014?

In addition, is it possible to get a good soaker in May without severe weather or does pretty much all precipitation come in the form of supercells or squall lines?

Jet stream moves north and heat up and dry out. Cap gets stronger and it takes more for it to break. Can we get a good soaker in May? Sure. It is also just a volatile time of the year for us, so not much we can really do about that.

Garden variety showers and storms developing in the wrap around of this massive storm. They are currently popping up in WC OK, these will be moving east at a pretty quick pace.

Consider yourself and your lawn lucky if you get hit with a quick downpour.


SIde note: Mississippi is getting creamed right now, 6 or 7 tornado warned supercells draped across the entire state racing northeast.

Grrrrrr... I was still looking at Ardmore's rain chances of 0% when I washed my car at lunch... Forgot to switch the phone back to OKC when I got home yesterday.

Guys, it appears Tupelo, MS has been hit by a big-time tornado. Reports/tweets of "major damage" coming in. Parts of Alabama upgraded to "high risk" for severe weather and schools are apparently being let out early in anticipation.

This is Not Good.

Guys, it appears Tupelo, MS has been hit by a big-time tornado. Reports/tweets of "major damage" coming in. Parts of Alabama upgraded to "high risk" for severe weather and schools are apparently being let out early in anticipation.

This is Not Good.

Not good in Tupelo or anywhere in the vicinity. I think I almost worry more about people in other states than I do when something is going on, here. I suppose it is because I know we are a pretty tornado savvy bunch that knows what to do.

I am reduced to watching the Weather Channel and to be honest, it is hard to listen to them because they use just a bit little language and emphasis than what I'm used to in Oklahoma. Different audience. I will attempt to overcome this.

Guys, it appears Tupelo, MS has been hit by a big-time tornado. Reports/tweets of "major damage" coming in. Parts of Alabama upgraded to "high risk" for severe weather and schools are apparently being let out early in anticipation.

This is Not Good.

I have family in Tupelo. Not pretty at all.

I have family in Tupelo. Not pretty at all.

They okay?

I have family in Tupelo. Not pretty at all.

Hope they are okay. I guess that's the source of your username?

They okay?

Yes, everyone's okay. A bit of damage near my uncle's house, but they're all safe and sound. Thank you for asking!


Hope they are okay. I guess that's the source of your username?

They're a part of the reason, yes. Mississippi is my family's home state. Every time we go back, we run through Tupelo amongst other cities / towns in every corner of the state.

Yes, everyone's okay. A bit of damage near my uncle's house, but they're all safe and sound. Thank you for asking!



They're a part of the reason, yes. Mississippi is my family's home state. Every time we go back, we run through Tupelo amongst other cities / towns in every corner of the state.

Seeing those storms must be tough for you since you are so familiar with it and have family from there. I am glad your family is physically okay. Must have been terrifying for folks in those storms.

Alabama is getting really pounded tonight. Multiple supercells, most have been tornado-warned at some point, from Tuscaloosa NE to and through Birmingham. Really concerned now about a possible rain-wrapped tornado down and doing damage right now south of Tuscaloosa. Watching an Alabama live stream and its *amazing* the difference between OKC-area coverage and an area not quite so used to it. They're wall-to-wall, but no spotters, remote cams, guys on the phone or radio, and the only remote videos are from (I think) traffic cams with a single meteorologist continuously narrating the radar images. Doing a fine job, mind you, very professional, but the texture of the coverage is entirely different.

Alabama is getting really pounded tonight. Multiple supercells, most have been tornado-warned at some point, from Tuscaloosa NE to and through Birmingham. Really concerned now about a possible rain-wrapped tornado down and doing damage right now south of Tuscaloosa. Watching an Alabama live stream and its *amazing* the difference between OKC-area coverage and an area not quite so used to it. They're wall-to-wall, but no spotters, remote cams, guys on the phone or radio, and the only remote videos are from (I think) traffic cams with a single meteorologist continuously narrating the radar images. Doing a fine job, mind you, very professional, but the texture of the coverage is entirely different.


Yes! It's been slow at work so we've been watching Alabama/Mississippi live streams of weather coverage and it's usually one guy with a Mac in front of a radar. Makes me so thankful for all of our storm spotters, helicopters, dominators even and so on. The coverage really isn't even close to being comparable.