The 5am NWS Hazard Weather Outlook says the tornado threat will decrease as the storms move east toward Central OK.

This afternoon going North on Mustang road to hook up with I-40 East at the intersection at Reno I saw one of those twister suv's, the ones that look like a Cival War Ironclad and a New, to me at least, Channel 9 WX vehicle that I think was some thing like a PT Cruiser with a mini radome on top. Somebody is freaking.

You ought see the Timmermobile trying to get through the Sonic drive-through on W. Lindsey. As I've said before, I *so* wish he was either 1) a female or 2) not so male-ego driven because since guys usually name their vehicles after females, it'd be just a whole lot of fun trying to watch Emily Sutton form the sentence "now let's switch over to Reed Timmer in the Dominatrix."

Seems too chilly this morning for much hope of anything firing off, looks like OKC is a bridesmaid this time through, although I might get new windshields and paint jobs for the vehicles that won't fit in the garage.

Dewpoints are in the upper 50s in the metro area. The dryline right now is well off to our west in the western part of the Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico. I am guessing it should move eastward soon? How high do dewpoints need to be for a severe weather outbreak?

The 60 degree dewpoint line is now almost to the Red River. Most areas are in the low to mid 50s right now. Dryline as BChris mentioned is off just to the west of Amarillo but this should mix east as some of this morning moisture mixes out this afternoon.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/states/ok.sfc.gif

Short term RAP has storms firing by 6-7PM just west of the Metro area south along I-44, moving into the Metro area by 7-8PM.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/12/SGP/rapSGP_sfc_radar_011.gif

13Z HRRR at 7PM...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/13/SGP/hrrrSGP_sfc_radar_011.gif

Any idea on how this all bodes for tomorrow a.m.? Will storms be cleared by Marathon time?


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From NWS: “Storm chances this afternoon into evening seem to be decreasing across the area. We are not sure that storms will develop at all due to strong capping (a layer of warm stable air around 6000 feet above the ground that will not allow for storm development).”

The 60 degree dewpoint line is now almost to the Red River. Most areas are in the low to mid 50s right now. Dryline as BChris mentioned is off just to the west of Amarillo but this should mix east as some of this morning moisture mixes out this afternoon.

Shortly before noon, the 60 degree dewpoint line has already moved as far north as Ponca City.

From NWS: “Storm chances this afternoon into evening seem to be decreasing across the area. We are not sure that storms will develop at all due to strong capping (a layer of warm stable air around 6000 feet above the ground that will not allow for storm development).”
Well, conditions can have changed by Sunday afternoon when the front will be much closer, assuming it hasn't moved on to eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. For now, if the cap doesn't hold, at least the warm air can be useful for something by making the hail melt on the way down.

Looks like this storm system is falling apart for us. Looks like we will maybe get some rain from it and that's about it now. Everything is being scaled way back now. another Dud system, after all the hype!!

I just called off our planned chase for today. The thought of having to deal with a massive chaser circus for a relatively subpar setup doesn't get me excited. I will pop a bag of popcorn if something does go up and enjoy the view from my living room couch.

From NWS: “Storm chances this afternoon into evening seem to be decreasing across the area. We are not sure that storms will develop at all due to strong capping (a layer of warm stable air around 6000 feet above the ground that will not allow for storm development).”

Hallelujah.

I've been out in the yard most of the morning and while the humidity is up some, it surely doesn't have that squishy, fatiguing, hard-to-put-into-words feel that a lot of storm days have. That things have scaled back is good news for everyone, except perhaps the chasers who obviously planned for the alternate.

Damn...So now the over/under on Reed Timmer's name being called tonight is just 1

Definitely a lot of pessimistic views on the chances for this afternoon and evening. I think it has been pretty clear this was never going to be a widespread day. With that in mind, I think immediately shutting down and taking what is being put out there to mean that nothing will happen is premature. One elevated severe storm with very large hail can ruin someones day pretty good. We continue to see the short term models pop some convection out in SW OK and bring it NE, the big question is how much and can it sustain itself. We are seeing plenty of CU starting to go up from Canadian County SW along/northwest of I-44 into North Texas. Convective temps today are in the 90s, so if any location can make a run at that...then we have a change to bust the cap.

I've chased plenty of these days before in the past. It is a gamble. Sometimes you score a beautiful isolated cell other times you drove to Altus just to go to Braums. I probably would have done what S00nr1 did in this case - just too many starved chasers out there that as soon as one goes up, you'll have a parking lot. We also have a TON of out of town chasers down for the major outbreak this week that will follow the system east.

If anything goes we'll need to be ready, but for now just need to keep an eye on things.

Damn. The demise of "The Big Outbreak" is unfortunate. Guess it's back to fence building.

16Z HRRR pops storms south of Childress by 6PM...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/16/FLT/hrrrFLT_sfc_radar_007.gif

Move into OK (including new development)...by 8PM

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/16/FLT/hrrrFLT_sfc_radar_009.gif

Definitely a lot of pessimistic views on the chances for this afternoon and evening..... We are seeing plenty of CU starting to go up from Canadian County SW along/northwest of I-44 into North Texas. Convective temps today are in the 90s, so if any location can make a run at that...then we have a change to bust the cap.

.

When I went out to get the mail a few moments ago, I saw that same region of cumulus to my NW (almost certainly in the Canadian County area) sure looking like it was at least trying to get organized...

When I went out to get the mail a few moments ago, I saw that same region of cumulus to my NW (almost certainly in the Canadian County area) sure looking like it was at least trying to get organized...

Yeah it is just going to take one to bust through to get the show going. We'll probably see a few attempts early on of cells trying to go up and collapsing, but eventually one will probably make it. Where exactly is the question. :)

Yeah it is just going to take one to bust through to get the show going. We'll probably see a few attempts early on of cells trying to go up and collapsing, but eventually one will probably make it. Where exactly is the question. :)

Okay, Venture, this question borders on the impossible, but since things have migrated toward an isolated risk more than a broad risk, what kind of implications do you think this has for the Memorial run in the morning? The big race starts at 6:30, the 5K at 6:40, but there will be TONS of people down there as early as 5:00-5:30 for pre-race events/ceremonies and such. Or does it just depend too much on dryline migration?

Okay, Venture, this question borders on the impossible, but since things have migrated toward an isolated risk more than a broad risk, what kind of implications do you think this has for the Memorial run in the morning? The big race starts at 6:30, the 5K at 6:40, but there will be TONS of people down there as early as 5:00-5:30 for pre-race events/ceremonies and such. Or does it just depend too much on dryline migration?

I think a lot comes into play if we see the dryline light up over night as the main storm system kicks through.

I think a lot comes into play if we see the dryline light up over night as the main storm system kicks through.

What are the implications either way? If we don't see it light up over night does that increase or decrease the odds of tomorrow's activity being more intense?

I went back through a few posts thinking you had mentioned it earlier, but I couldn't find it - where is the dryline now?

What are the implications either way? If we don't see it light up over night does that increase or decrease the odds of tomorrow's activity being more intense?

You've got a secondary set up for tomorrow afternoon that's just naturally part of the afternoon heating cycle ahead of the advancing front, but with higher relative humidity and dewpoints, so that risk for eastern OK exists almost regardless of what happens overnight..except to the extent any overnight storms beat up the atmosphere so much that it has to have time to recover before the next round can start. If even the overnight storms are isolated or don't happen, still seems to me the risk for E Oklahoma tomorrow is just as high if not higher than W OK today. Judging by the language the SPC is using on some of their outlooks, I think they're more confident/concerned about the potential going into the SE US over the next few days.

As I recall, the Birmingham tornado from a few years ago (2011 if memory serves) was a relatively early season event, because I remember driving through there later that summer right through some of the worst damage, and it was eerily reminiscent of May 3...the sobering part was that the particular area was not a particularly thriving area economically to begin with, and it was hard to see how that area was going to rebuild - or that, at a minimum, it was going to take a long, long time. There were areas of destruction that hadn't even been close to cleared, or even touched.....but I digress...sorry..

You've got a secondary set up for tomorrow afternoon that's just naturally part of the afternoon heating cycle ahead of the advancing front, but with higher relative humidity and dewpoints, so that risk for eastern OK exists almost regardless of what happens overnight..except to the extent any overnight storms beat up the atmosphere so much that it has to have time to recover before the next round can start. If even the overnight storms are isolated or don't happen, still seems to me the risk for E Oklahoma tomorrow is just as high if not higher than W OK today. Judging by the language the SPC is using on some of their outlooks, I think they're more confident/concerned about the potential going into the SE US over the next few days.

As I recall, the Birmingham tornado from a few years ago (2011 if memory serves) was a relatively early season event, because I remember driving through there later that summer right through some of the worst damage, and it was eerily reminiscent of May 3...the sobering part was that the particular area was not a particularly thriving area economically to begin with, and it was hard to see how that area was going to rebuild - or that, at a minimum, it was going to take a long, long time. There were areas of destruction that hadn't even been close to cleared, or even touched.....but I digress...sorry..

Don't ever apologize for showing your humanity to people who are suffering.

All I can say is that east of Mustang, it feels like storm rising.

It's gotten overcast and very humid in OKC.

Moisture has been mixing out in SW OK for a while now. I'll be headed out shortly to chase, but only because I have a friend from out of town who I promised I'd chase with no matter what. May hike in the Wichitas while we wait. Either way, storms look isolated at best -- but as venture said, it only takes one doozy to ruin someone's day. From a photography standpoint one isolated supercell may be best. I'd put the odds of a total cap bust prior to 9PM at 70% right now.

Onward to the first week or two of May! lol

How is Atlanta area looking Wed-Thursday?

Mesoscale discussion released a few minutes ago by the SPC.... weather watch termed "unlikely" although, as Venture has pointed out, there's still a chance for some stormage:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 409 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0409.html)

I had just tweeted out that I think the exhaust from all the chasers in SW OK right now should help them reach the convective temp and bust the cap...apparently HRRR agrees. ;)

Image for 6PM...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/20/FLT/hrrrFLT_sfc_radar_003.gif

Looks like the first legit towers trying to break through in NW TX right now.

Cell near Roby looks the best right now.

It was sprinkling in Yukon. I have no idea what the significance of that is to anything.

Two panel image of the two cells trying to go up. Base Reflectivity on left, Echo Tops on the right which can help show elevated returns. Tracks are for one hour.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/26-1.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0410.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND WRN NORTH TX INTO SWRN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262322Z - 270045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND WRN NORTH TX INTO SWRN OK ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE. A TSTM HAD DEVELOPED
IN FISHER COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A N-S
ORIENTED CORRIDOR...GENERALLY 35-45 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
35 S ABI TO 20 N LTS....WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO
SHOW TWO DRY LINES OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS. ONE
EXTENDED FROM ALONG THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER SWWD TO 25 N MAF
AND THEN SWD TO 25 WSW OF SANDERSON TX. A SECOND DRY LINE WAS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST ONE AND WAS RETREATING SLOWLY WWD
PER TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INVOF OF ABI NWD INTO FAR SWRN OK. THIS
SECOND DRY LINE APPEARS TO BE DELINEATING HIGHER MOISTURE RETURN
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S TO ITS EAST COUPLED WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S ALONG THIS DRY LINE
FEATURE. THESE OBSERVED THERMODYNAMICS HAVE AIDED IN WEAKENING OF
SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION THAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER.

TRENDS IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM EXTREME
SWRN OK TO SJT HAVE BACKED TO SLY...WHILE WINDS AT THE SAME LEVEL
FROM AMA-MAF WERE WSWLY INDICATING A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SECOND DRY LINE. IT IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH
A WEAKENED CAP THAT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TOWERING CU
AND A COUPLE CB/S. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED IN
FISHER COUNTY TX AROUND 2245Z. THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPARENT MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE OR JET STREAK TRACKING NEWD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TX AT THIS
TIME. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS ALSO LIKELY AIDING IN THE
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ALONG THE DRY LINE
WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FURTHER W/NWWD MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BOOST INSTABILITY FOR
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT
ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE STORMS...WITH A
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
MEANWHILE...LARGE SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS /35-40 DEGREES/ TEND
TO RESULT IN LP SUPERCELLS ENHANCING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IF TSTM COVERAGE AND/OR INTENSITY INCREASES
SUFFICIENTLY...THEN A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..PETERS/HART.. 04/26/2014

1 Hour tracks on all storms attempting to increase and get established.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/26-2.png

If these can get going and sustain into the deeper moisture, we could see some big hail.

Here is the cell in Hardeman Co, TX just over the border...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/kfdr_20140426_2341.png

Storm in NE Stonewall County, TX appears to have busted the cap. Hail being indicated now.

If these can get going and sustain into the deeper moisture, we could see some big hail.

Ah, so there's a chance the metro could get hail? If so, I'll do the garage shuffle and get both cars in...

FYI...due to the nature of the severe risk tomorrow and the number of people from the Tulsa area and east of Central OK, I'll keep the streaming and such going in the chat room so we can cover those folks. Going to be a big day and it'll still impact our state.

Special weather statement
national weather service tulsa ok
419 pm cdt sat apr 26 2014

arz001-002-010-011-019-020-029-okz049-053>076-270930-
benton-carroll-washington ar-madison-crawford-franklin-sebastian-
pushmataha-choctaw-osage-washington ok-nowata-craig-ottawa-pawnee-
tulsa-rogers-mayes-delaware-creek-okfuskee-okmulgee-wagoner-
cherokee-adair-muskogee-mcintosh-sequoyah-pittsburg-haskell-
latimer-le flore-
including the cities of...rogers...bentonville...berryville...
Eureka springs...fayetteville...springdale...huntsville.. .
Van buren...ozark...charleston...fort smith...antlers...clayton...
Hugo...pawhuska...bartlesville...nowata...vinita.. .miami...
Pawnee...tulsa...claremore...pryor...jay...bristow ...okemah...
Okmulgee...wagoner...tahlequah...stilwell...muskog ee...eufaula...
Sallisaw...mcalester...stigler...wilburton...potea u
419 pm cdt sat apr 26 2014

...severe storms likely sunday with a threat of tornadoes...

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop sunday afternoon in
eastern oklahoma...likely east of a line from bartlesville to
mcalester to boswell. The storms may initially be widely scattered
as they intensify...but will become more numerous after 5pm as the
storms move toward western arkansas. The storms will likely reach
their greatest intensity sunday evening in western arkansas and far
eastern oklahoma. Tornadoes...wind gusts to 75 mph and 3 inch hail
could occur with the most intense cells.

While there remains some uncertainty relating to the specific areas
that will be at most risk...parts of arkansas and perhaps extreme
eastern oklahoma...are expected to experience life-threatening
storms sunday evening. That threat includes the potential for
strong and possibly long-track tornadoes.

If you are in arkansas or extreme eastern oklahoma you should use
this evening to review your severe actions plans. This should be
done not only for your home...but also for where you expect to be
sunday evening. This is also a good time to check battery-power
devices and ensure your family can quickly seek shelter if
necessary.

First Warning for Oklahoma today...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HARMON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...


* UNTIL 930 PM CDT


* AT 850 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
GOODLETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.


HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.


IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

Do you think a tornado watch will go up?

Do you think a tornado watch will go up?

Nope.

We are entering a quiet period now. These storms will continue to wander and decrease. New activity should form once the dryline gets moving later tonight.

The radar right now is the most pathetic thing I've ever seen...given even the most recent forecast for severe weather.


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Good deal. I have to think of what the children, and especially the kids in Moore, must feel like. It must be terrifying for them this time of year to come around again. I know my grandkids are scared to death of tornadoes and they haven't even been through one. I think they sense the anxiety we adults project.

It all comes down to education and understanding. I remember seeing my first tornado. It was an F2 a couple miles from my parents house. It was a nasty looking thing to. It was like you grabbed a snake by the head and it was just curving and whipping about. I remember that tornado more than any of the dozens I've seen since.

Front is approaching western border now.

western border of what?

Yup, dryline initiation has begun.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/27-1.png

Yawn, I'm going to bed.

Yawn, I'm going to bed.goodnight, don't let the tornados bite... or pick your house up and throw you into an alternate demison where you get placed in the middle of fued between a scare crow, robot, a talking lion, and witch that probably started by soooooneone not keeping their grass trimmed.,

Severe Watch is out. Storms forming quickly in SW OK moving NE...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0092_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 92
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 535 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVOLVING THROUGH
MIDDAY... ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LARGE
HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INITIALLY...BUT THE RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PROBABLY WILL INCREASE AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF BEGINS
TO WARM AFTER DAYBREAK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21045.

#OUN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OUN&src=hash) issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Comanche, Grady [OK] till 6:30 AM CDT

Storm producing small hail moving across the Eastern Metro area now from Jones up to Arcadia and Luther. Confirmed reports of pea to dimes in that area. More storms with possible small hail on the west side. Severe storm moving up from east of Lawton with hail just over 1".

#OUN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OUN&src=hash) issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Canadian, Grady, Kingfisher, Logan, Oklahoma [OK] till 6:45 AM CDT

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/27-2.png