Dessert Fox, this is in no way directed at you, more aimed the mainstream weather. When we have a chance of rain, its 40% and 20%. But, when we have a chance of tornadoes, its 4/10 and 2/10???? Most of us can do some basic math.

I agree, I'm glad it's not my system.

I agree, I'm glad it's not my system.

Just FYI.....you have an avatar of Erwin Rommel, the "Desert Fox", but your username is "Dessert Fox" like one of these -
http://i.imgur.com/H3XeQWw.jpg

Maybe Pete or Martin could change it for you. (If it's not already taken). Easy mistake though.

Mmmm cheese cake.

Just FYI.....you have an avatar of Erwin Rommel, the "Desert Fox", but your username is "Dessert Fox" like one of these -
http://i.imgur.com/H3XeQWw.jpg

Maybe Pete or Martin could change it for you. (If it's not already taken). Easy mistake though.

It wasn't a mistake, just a little play on words :wink:

I figured with Rommel's pic it was a mistake. Sorry! Still, the cheese cake looks good anyway.

No problem, the mistake was worth looking at the pic haha

Just FYI.....you have an avatar of Erwin Rommel, the "Desert Fox", but your username is "Dessert Fox" like one of these -
http://i.imgur.com/H3XeQWw.jpg

Maybe Pete or Martin could change it for you. (If it's not already taken). Easy mistake though.

Now that's a picture worth warning the neighbors about. As in yum. Maybe we could come up with a cool, mathematical-sounding factor for cheesecake pictures, like Caloric Available Potential Eatage...make up maps and outlooks and everything :)

Reed Timmer should apologize for saying this is going to be the biggest outbreak since 2011. 2011 was one of the most violent years in recorded history and its looking more and more like this event is going to be much less high-end than originally thought.

Verrry interesting tweet from Gary England:


All Okla Folks: Don't buy the hype about tornadoes, they may or may not happen. By Fri eve we will have a better idea about Sat. Jump Back!

I think there's lots of hedging going into Saturday about what's been predicted about Saturday.

I think there's lots of hedging going into Saturday about what's been predicted about Saturday.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Venture: Definition clarification time. I keep seeing the phrase "Mid-level speed max is moving...." I'm trying like crazy to figure out what, exactly, the term "speed max" means. Is it an area of temperature or pressure differential that could but hasn't yet formed into a surface low, or just a wind boundary, or ???????

Guess the one I'm trying to interpret is from this paragraph:


STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN U.S./MEXICAN BORDER EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NM BY 27/00Z.

:)

Reed Timmer should apologize for saying this is going to be the biggest outbreak since 2011. 2011 was one of the most violent years in recorded history and its looking more and more like this event is going to be much less high-end than originally thought.

He really jumped the gun - only goes to show that most of the time, you need to wait until much closer to go time to do more than offer possibilities filled with caveats.

Even Mike Morgan is downplaying it, now.

He really jumped the gun - only goes to show that most of the time, you need to wait until much closer to go time to do more than offer possibilities filled with caveats.

He seems like a douche. I was appalled when otherwise smart friends of mine were sharing his histrionic garbage post on Facebook. From this point forward, when I hear his name, I will tune him out.

NAM and GFS are in pretty decent agreement tonight on coverage. Essentially very limited coverage until evening. Then a few isolated storms before a line storms form up - kinda similar to yesterday in my opinion. The difference here are the mechanics will be in place for some stronger storms than what we had last night.

One thing I always try to drive home. Risk level does not equal severity level all the time. I fully expect everything to stay a Slight Risk for Saturday but that doesn't mean there won't be a few tornadoes or some extremely large hail. It just means there won't be several reports of either. This is why I can't stand local media doing their own outlooks and changing definitions. Even just one tornado can make it a bad day for someone, so while outbreaks are more "sexy" for people to drum up...some tend to lose focus on the importance of following even the slightest chance.

Venture: Definition clarification time. I keep seeing the phrase "Mid-level speed max is moving...." I'm trying like crazy to figure out what, exactly, the term "speed max" means. Is it an area of temperature or pressure differential that could but hasn't yet formed into a surface low, or just a wind boundary, or ???????

Guess the one I'm trying to interpret is from this paragraph:







Quote Originally Posted by The NWS Weather Epistle


STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN U.S./MEXICAN BORDER EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NM BY 27/00Z.

:)

Let me take a stab at this and if I'm wrong I hope somebody corrects me....Please.

A speed max would be the jet stream winds that occur when they rotate around an upper level low... (jet maximum)
It's strength is important to know because it helps evacuate air from the top of thunder storms and has a a siphoning effect. This acts as a lifting mechanism for air at lower levels that's often warm and moist.
It aids the formation of tornadoes hail and high winds.

He seems like a douche. I was appalled when otherwise smart friends of mine were sharing his histrionic garbage post on Facebook. From this point forward, when I hear his name, I will tune him out.

That, and that MSNBC article were absolutely atrocious. It's like they purposely removed the word "possible" in all of the forecasts and ran with it. Completely and utterly irresponsible. And you know who gets the blame when the "forecast" "busts"? Us, the meteorologists. It's crap.

Also, while I am not condoning Reed's claim about the outbreak, it is entirely possible that Monday and Tuesday could be largescale outbreaks in the Southeast. So while he did include is in that comment erroneously, IMO), it could still be quite bad elsewhere potentially.

A lot of graphics ahead! You are warned. :)

While we wait for the Euro to come out here in the next hour or two...he is a look at the various models for 7PM Saturday.

00Z GFS

7PM Saturday10PM Saturday1AM Sunday4AM Sundayhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_048.gifhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_051.gifhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_054.gifhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_057.gif
00Z NAM

7PM Saturday10PM Saturday1AM Sunday4AM Sundayhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/namSGP_sfc_prec_048.gifhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/namSGP_sfc_prec_051.gifhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/namSGP_sfc_prec_054.gifhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/namSGP_sfc_prec_057.gif
00Z UKMET

7PM Saturday7AM Sundayhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/ukmetSGP_sfc_prec_048.gifhttp://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/ukmetSGP_sfc_prec_060.gif
00Z Regional GEM - Canadian Model

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/00_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_048.png

Okay so the take away to the models in the images above. We have 3 out of those 4 presented that are breaking out precip along the dryline in the early evening hours and continuing it over night - even increasing coverage overnight. Now in this post I wanted to review the SREF run from SPC which is an ensemble forecast. OU48 referred to this earlier.

First tomorrow. Something I found interesting was that the SREF members have storms developing along the dryline tomorrow out west. I still don't think this is likely, but the risk is there.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/SREF_precip_MAX_3hr_f027.gif

Supercell Parameters for Friday - not really high, but conditions are there.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/SREF_SCCP_MEDIAN_MXMN__f027.gif

Saturday Max Total Precip by 7PM - 3 Hr Total

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/SREF_precip_MAX_3hr_f051.gif

Supercell Parameter

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/SREF_SCCP_MEDIAN_MXMN__f051.gif

Sig Tornado Parameter

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f051.gif

The new Day 2 for Saturday...


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
FROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND
BY EARLY SAT. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS FROM SRN CA
TO THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A COMPACT SPEED MAX ACROSS THE
DESERT SW EJECTING ONTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUN. THESE
FEATURES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT
ARCING EWD NEAR THE MO VALLEY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD INTO CNTRL
KS AND ACROSS W TX...BEFORE RETREATING WWD DURING THE EVENING. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD AND EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUN.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT COLD FRONT INTRUSION TO NEAR THE TX GULF
COASTAL PLAIN...MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO TX AT
12Z/SAT. ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY AS FLOW STRENGTHENS BENEATH A STOUT EML. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
BROADENING PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM
PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY SWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST BY SAT
EVENING.

INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG/W OF THE DRYLINE WITH UPPER
80S TO MIDDLE 90S TEMPERATURES FROM CNTRL KS TO W TX. AS WEAK
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE DRYLINE NEAR 00Z...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW DISCRETE
STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED WITH SURFACE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 30 DEG F. VERY STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES ALONG WITH A MODERATE COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL /SOME
SIGNIFICANT/ AND LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS.

STRONG WARM SECTOR INHIBITION DOES RENDER SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/SUSTAINABILITY AND TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE VARIES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FROM THE MINIMALIST NAM/UKMET TO WIDESPREAD GFS.
GIVEN A RETREATING DRYLINE SCENARIO AND LARGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS HOLDING OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. BUT WITH A LLJ STRENGTHENING TO
AOA 50 KT ALONG WITH AN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE...ANY SUSTAINED
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY SUN...ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SUN
PLAINS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE
60S...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.

..GRAMS.. 04/25/2014

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

I added some emphasis and it appears SPC is starting to hint at what some of us starting to pick up on. It doesn't happen often, but we might be looking at a nighttime event. Not locked in at all. A lot of things still have to come together. Moisture needs to be rich and get in place. Initiation has to be well underway before the dryline retreats and storms established. Among other things. Depending on which model solution works out, storm coverage - as mentioned earlier - could increase as the night goes on which means the risk will remain. This possibly won't be a situation where the threat ends shortly after the sun goes down. Get the coffee ready...

00Z Euro keep things pretty much the same. It lights up the dryline by 7PM throughout western OK. Through 1AM it has two areas of precip - one north and one south...not that this should be taken literally right now. Then by 7AM reignites precip over a large area of OK west of I-35. It is also SLIGHTLY slower with dryline progression keep it to right on I-35 by 1PM. This matches what it did on the 00Z run last night.

Sunday Day 3 has a slight risk just east of I-35 and a Moderate Risk for extreme SE OK. This could be the first shot a High Risk for this year...especially with a Day 3 Moderate.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX AREA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE WRN
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES
TOWARDS NEB. AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL
PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW...CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE
MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

...MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST...
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML
WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND
ARKLATEX BY SUN AFTERNOON. INITIALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE
SURFACE-BASED OR WILL TRANSITION TO BECOMING SO AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS N/E.

THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE TOWARDS PEAK HEATING...WITH CONFIDENCE GREATEST IN THIS
OCCURRING NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY STORMS /CENTERED OVER
THE ARKLATEX/. WITH ROBUST HEATING OCCURRING ACROSS TX...MLCAPE
SHOULD PUSH 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. HODOGRAPHS APPEAR QUITE
CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES. WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING ACROSS NERN TX SUN
EVENING...TRAINING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.

ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER N INTO THE MO VALLEY...EARLY DAY
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE RISK. BUT WITH STRONG
INSOLATION...MODERATE BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY
MERIDIONAL...SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WOULD
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION...WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 04/25/2014

looks like a rain slicker is in order for the norman music festival tomorrow night! and maybe a hard hat, too...

looks like a rain slicker is in order for the norman music festival tomorrow night! and maybe a hard hat, too...

And a maybe know where a nocturnal tornado shelter is in down town Norman.

If you are in Norman do not depend on the city of Norman warnings.
Their track record of timely warnings is not great.
I have seen far better set ups and far more timely city tornado warnings issued in small towns who do not have nearly as many resources as the city of Norman.

duly noted. will have my phone with me and be keeping an eye on the sky.

I added some emphasis and it appears SPC is starting to hint at what some of us starting to pick up on. It doesn't happen often, but we might be looking at a nighttime event. Not locked in at all. A lot of things still have to come together. Moisture needs to be rich and get in place. Initiation has to be well underway before the dryline retreats and storms established. Among other things. Depending on which model solution works out, storm coverage - as mentioned earlier - could increase as the night goes on which means the risk will remain. This possibly won't be a situation where the threat ends shortly after the sun goes down. Get the coffee ready...

How much of a punch do you see these storms having when they move into the metro overnight Saturday? From what I've seen there won't be much of a tornado risk but very large hail and damaging winds appear to be a threat.

How much of a punch do you see these storms having when they move into the metro overnight Saturday? From what I've seen there won't be much of a tornado risk but very large hail and damaging winds appear to be a threat.

I'd say that's probably true, particularly with regard to hail.

60 and 70s dewpoints coming up in south TX today, should be streaming into OK tomorrow morning and afternoon.

Still a question of whether the dryline fires or not, but I think it will. I think we could have several supercells ongoing in W/SW OK as the sun sets. These cells could be carried in towards C OK as the night progresss and this is where we could have a time window of enhanced tornado potential (definite hail if they stay together). Then late in the night/early AM, the cold front should blast through with a line of storms regardless of what happened earlier, and sweep through most of OK. I think all this could be out of here by sunrise on Sunday. Tomorrow night will be nowcast situation if storms pop, if not - it will likely just be a heavy thunderstorm in a linear fashion (small hail, wind).

If craziness goes down tomorrow night, don't claim you weren't warned. This is what I posted 3 days ago:


04-22-2014, 09:41 AM
Saturday into Sunday looks interesting; however, I have a feeling we could see a nocturnal event in the timing of the low. Again this can change, but nocturnal supercells are crazy.

There is no reason to try and pinpoint bullseyes and population impacts 4 days out, we won't have a good idea until morning of the event. By Friday, we should at least have a weak idea on setup. Right now it is looking like classic dryline supercell machine, still curious on the timing of intiation etc, though.

I'm waiting on the Euro to come out this afternoon before getting in-depth into things anymore than what we are. Anon's nocturnal solution is definitely appearing to be a more likely scenario now. NWS Norman has update their graphics and seem to side with the thinking that the tornado window will run from 7PM to Midnight. 12Z GFS and NAM seem to back this up. I watched the morning weather shows to see what their thinking is and many defaulted to the "storms weaken after dark" line of thinking that is typical - but probably won't apply to this. If this unfolds like the models are hinting, this isn't going to be a typical Oklahoma severe weather day. Conditions will improve near or after sunset for a few tornadoes. Most Oklahoma nocturnal events are either hail events or the big derecho events early in the Summer (though we haven't had a classic one in awhile). With nocturnal storms capable of tornadoes not being normal around here, I expect a bias to get exposed in the local TV mets way of thinking.

Just keep in mind. Nothing is set in stone yet. We have been fairly consistent that this is going to be a more nowcasting scenario and following it in real time. Through today and early tomorrow we need to watch the green area on this map and see how far north it actually gets...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/srnplains/contour/SGPsf.fronts.20140425.17.gif

Out of curiosity, when was the last time there was a nocturnal tornado warning in central Oklahoma?

Out of curiosity, when was the last time there was a nocturnal tornado warning in central Oklahoma?

This one in 2012 is probably the best candidate.

04/13/20122352-2355275EF100CanadianSW OKC (1 N - 3 NNW Mustang; just SW of SW 54th/Mustang - near SW 29th/Tucson)

I seem to remember nighttime sirens waking us up a few years ago, so I don't think it's been that long.

Looks like per these most recent models, I'll be napping during the day so I can stay up and be on weather watch while Mr. Fritter gets his sleep for Sunday's marathon. Going to be an interesting start.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

New Day 2...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO MID-MISSOURI VALLEY SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST.

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL INFLUENCED BY AN
EASTWARD-SHIFTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK OVER
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHARPENING WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO THE MO RIVER VALLEY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EASTWARD
INTO CNTRL KS AND ACROSS WEST TX...BEFORE RETREATING WESTWARD DURING
THE EVENING. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL/COASTAL
TX SATURDAY MORNING...BUT STEADY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BENEATH A STOUT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROADENING PLUME OF
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN OK/CENTRAL KS BY
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. REGARDING THE QUALITY OF THE
MOISTURE...AFTER MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY...GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF REFLECT
DIURNAL MIXING /REDUCTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL OK INTO KS...WHICH IS LIKELY TIED TO SOME MARGINALITY
OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE PROGGED IN THOSE AREAS PRIOR TO SUNSET /25+F
TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS AT PEAK HEATING/.

AS HEIGHT FALLS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MIXING/DESTABILIZATION
PEAKS...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...INITIALLY WITHIN
A NEAR-DRYLINE CORRIDOR FROM WEST-CENTRAL TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS TO FAR
WESTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL KS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILES WILL BE MODEST MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...A CONSIDERABLE
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN BOTH REGARDS INTO THE EVENING
/EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KT/. SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL /SOME VERY LARGE/
AS THE PRIMARY SCENARIO. AS THESE STORMS SHIFT EASTWARD...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO RISK MAY OCCUR
TOWARD/JUST AFTER SUNSET PENDING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL MODE AS
MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL SRH EACH NOCTURNALLY INCREASE. ALTHOUGH...WARM
SECTOR INHIBITION SHOULD NONETHELESS TEND TO INCREASE BY LATE
EVENING IN MOST AREAS WITH UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO SURFACE-BASED
STORM/TORNADO LIKELIHOOD DEEPER INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

What are the predicted conditions for the Memorial Marathon Sunday morning?

What are the predicted conditions for the Memorial Marathon Sunday morning?

Probably still have some storms around - severity should be low by that time though. Hopefully. LOL

Here is the afternoon model review...

Severe weather is likely going into Saturday for parts of the state. Duh statement I know.

Key things to watch tomorrow: 1) Moisture return from the Gulf, 2) Dryline timing, and 3) Exact time initiation takes place.

Right now we still have a cold front draped across Southern Texas that is effectively shutting off moisture return from the Gulf. High pressure is off to the east and approaching Low from the west will give us a good SE flow off the Gulf. How fast this gets established and how deep the moisture is will directly impact what happens tomorrow. Short Term HRRR guidance suggests moisture return from the Gulf could start later this evening, around 7-8pm and bring dews in the 60s north to near Dallas by 3AM. If we look at the other models, Euro has the 60 degree line further south down by Waco, 12Z NAM is in agreement with Euro, and GFS is just a tad further south. The 3 models get the 60 degree dews in place by 1PM tomorrow (GFS is actually a bit earlier). This cutting it pretty close in my opinion, but with a late show it may not be a big deal. The 4km NAM has dews in the mid to upper 60s in SW OK by 10PM tomorrow which should help feed the storms.

Dryline time now...looks like it will hang out west most of the day and wait until after midnight to start marching east. To I-35 by Noon-ish on Sunday. It will likely advance slightly tomorrow and then retreat a bit before pushing back east. If storms can survive and push off of the dryline and survive - we'll need to watch them.

Instability ahead of the dryline looks good. Euro has widespread CAPE values 2000-2800 along the dryline, NAM has 2500-3000, and GFS around 3000 j/kg. More on the environment in a bit.

Initiation of convection is mixed, but all say yes it will happen. Euro fires by 7PM on the dryline over W OK (it might be in a column of counties or two). NAM fires off SW OK by 10PM. GFS initiates by 10PM along the dryline. Keep in mind when I say "by 10PM" that these precip forecasts are 3 hour precip totals so they will start well before 10 in most cases.

So as previous advertised, main threat will be very large hail early. If storms are on going and survive past dark the LLJ and overall conditions will mean a more favorable environment for tornadoes. We'll keep an eye on things, nothing is set in stone, but nighttime tornadoes are never fun.

The new NAM is running now so will post any updates from the 4km NAM product. The 12Z run hinted as rotating supercells moving up from the SW.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/nam4k-1.png

Here is part of the OUN afternoon discussion in respect to tornado chances...


WITH RESPECT TO TORNADOES... THERE GENERATION
WILL HINGE ON A MULTITUDE OF FACTORS... ONE OF WHICH IS TIMING.
CURRENTLY... THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN
BACKED ON THE SURGE OF THE DRYLINE INTO SRN OK... NEAR THE I-44
CORRIDOR... LIKELY BETWEEN 27/00Z AND 27/04 OR 05Z. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH BETTER SFC/BL MOISTURE AND LCLS IN THE 1200 TO 1500 M RANGE. IF
THESE INGREDIENTS ARE ABLE TO COME TOGETHER... CONVECTIVE INITATION
TIME REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION.

So this is pretty much what we've been talking about. If storms get going and established, there will be a window from roughly 7PM to Midnight where a tornado threat will develop. Most ideal location is, naturally, along/near I-44.

I just saw Mike Morgan's 430 forecast.....If he did it in one word, it would have been "meh".

I just saw Mike Morgan's 430 forecast.....If he did it in one word, it would have been "meh".

Yeah watching Payne and Morgan to see how they are handling. Morgan's risk area is just weird. Payne's is closer to the SPC's outlook. Both are staying pretty low key, from what I can tell, with this so at least it isn't a super hype storm.

Yeah watching Payne and Morgan to see how they are handling. Morgan's risk area is just weird. Payne's is closer to the SPC's outlook. Both are staying pretty low key, from what I can tell, with this so at least it isn't a super hype storm.

I'm sure that a certain incident isn't ever far from Mike Morgan's thoughts every time he goes on the air this season for severe weather coverage.

18Z 4km NAM Discussion

Right off the bat...nothing has significantly changed. I just know these images are floating around out there now, and they are bound to make it to Twitter, Faceplace, other forums and people will start going a little crazy. This look is for informational purposes and should be used in conjunction with everything else we have gone over.

Storm initiation around 6PM in Hardeman County, TX and maybe far south Harmon and Jackson counties. Looking at an area with CAPE values near 3000 j/kg in this area and dews in the low 60s. Deeper moisture is sititng just off to the east. Moisture will continue to increase through the evening getting into the mid 60s from SW back into Central OK.

By 7PM looking at storms developing from Hobart-Altus back to the SW into TX. Additional development would continue and growing in coverage. Looks like storms start to move into the fart west Metro area between 9 and 10PM. Storms continue through probably 3AM when it seems the tail end charlie storm moves through. Keep in mind simulated radar is a guess and not to be taken literally.

This 10PM...
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/nam4k-3.png

This is at Midnight
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/april26models/nam4k-2.png

The image is simulated reflectivity on the left and the right is 2-5km Max Updraft Helicity.

This has been showing up with some variations for a bit now, so please just stay weather aware for tomorrow night.

Yeah watching Payne and Morgan to see how they are handling. Morgan's risk area is just weird. Payne's is closer to the SPC's outlook. Both are staying pretty low key, from what I can tell, with this so at least it isn't a super hype storm.I wonder if the network told them to

Well...the last time we had a watch he didn't clean it out. Granted I guess it is time, but just saying. :)

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/150496319/Dsc01422_bigger.jpgRick Smith ‏@ounwcm (https://twitter.com/ounwcm) 35m (https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/459845844015923201)
Storm shelter is clean and ready for human occupancy. Sorry spiders! #okwx (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23okwx&src=hash) pic.twitter.com/AMgOLLjOVH (http://t.co/AMgOLLjOVH)

Will take that as a hint. If it gets hinky, tomorrow, I'll toss my overnight bag, the dogs' water dish and a couple of cans of dogfood into the shelter. Other than that, we're already good to go.

Will take that as a hint. If it gets hinky, tomorrow, I'll toss my overnight bag, the dogs' water dish and a couple of cans of dogfood into the shelter. Other than that, we're already good to go.

I wish I could do the same with my hallway hah

AccuJackWeather.com is still going with "Dallas to Kansas City: Worst Tornado Outbreak Yet" as of 8:18PM tonight. So the national hype continues.

This afternoon going North on Mustang road to hook up with I-40 East at the intersection at Reno I saw one of those twister suv's, the ones that look like a Cival War Ironclad and a New, to me at least, Channel 9 WX vehicle that I think was some thing like a PT Cruiser with a mini radome on top. Somebody is freaking.

This afternoon going North on Mustang road to hook up with I-40 East at the intersection at Reno I saw one of those twister suv's, the ones that look like a Cival War Ironclad and a New, to me at least, Channel 9 WX vehicle that I think was some thing like a PT Cruiser with a mini radome on top. Somebody is freaking.

Just hearing that description of the tornado fleet freaks me out.

The iranclad sounds like one of the Dominators with KFOR has one of - driven by Reed Timmer. I think there are 4 total or something.

As far as News 9, Payne tweeted out a photo of their fleet today...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BmGu8PrIQAArb9W.jpg:large

They must have a pretty big weather department budget. I'm sure upper management is more upset about the slow season than the chasers.

"I don't care if there isn't going to be a widespread outbreak tomorrow. Get those souped up trucks out there NOW!!" lol

Jn1780, I guess I'm not the only one who looked at that fleet and started thinking about how much all that cost - and how they pay for it.

No major changes with the 00Z NAM except maybe just a smidge slower. Not a lot of widespread coverage but still storms forming in SW OK moving up I-44.

Michael Armstrong's take.

https://www.facebook.com/michael.armstrong.14811/posts/10203615807340620?fref=nf


Okay, I'm officially concerned about tomorrow night. This is simply meant to encourage you to pay close attention to the weather and have a plan if you live in central or SW OK on Saturday night, particularly between 6pm and midnight. ***Please share this update with your friends***

Here is the deal:

The latest data has been trending toward higher quality moisture return right at the time storms develop Saturday evening. This will offset the sun going down and create an atmosphere that is both unstable and weakly capped. As a result, I expect widespread storms including some supercells to develop in the general vicinity of Altus and Lawton between 5 and 7 pm, then move northeastward toward central OK between 8 and 10pm. Other storms could develop northward all the way to the OK-KS border as well during this time.

Meanwhile, low-level shear will be increasing dramatically during this time period. The current projections indicate strong tornadoes will be possible even after dark for a few hours.
I recognize that this is not what many of you want to hear, especially coming from me. I actually debated about even writing this as a result. Clearly I am no fortune teller, I am not God, and I can only give you an opinion based on my prior experience and training. I have no hidden agenda or "dog in the hunt", but I think it's important if I recognize a potentially dangerous situation to communicate it.

Finally, this is not locked in. Changes remain possible. The best thing to do is to have a plan A, and then have a plan B in case plan A doesn't work. The people who panic are the people who do not adequately prepare. I'll update again tomorrow. - Michael

New Day 1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL
PLAINS AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD THROUGH CA WILL EMERGE OVER
THE SRN-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. A LEE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN
OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE. AT THE SFC
A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH WRN KS.
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD AND BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND EWD
FROM THE LOW THROUGH NEB INTO THE MIDDLE MS AND OH VALLEYS. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

...WRN THROUGH NCNTRL TX...OK AND KS...

STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL
ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER CNTRL/SRN TX NWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS WARM SECTOR BENEATH EML PLUME WITH VERY STEEP
/8-9 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES. BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS NRN TX AND OK TO UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60
FARTHER NORTH THROUGH KS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AN AXIS OF
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. PLUME OF
WARMER AIR AT BASE OF THE EML SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A SUBSTANTIAL CAP
MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH REMAINING FAR WEST OF THE
DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY UPPER FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO ANY SUBTLE LEAD IMPULSES EJECTING
AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HEATING AND DEEP MIXING
ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ANY STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER BASED...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT THROUGH WARM
SECTOR GIVEN 20+ TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS. THIS AND MODEST FLOW
ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT. WINDS ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AND THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A SMALL
WINDOW MAY ALSO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
DECOUPLE.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UPSCALE MCS GROWTH AS DEEPER FORCING ATTENDING THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
WARM SECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT MAY TAP INTO SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD
OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL/ERN NEB...SERN SD AND WRN IA...

THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. EWD
ADVECTING EML PLUME AND DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED MUCH
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE. THIS LENDS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ALONG/JUST NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
SHOULD STORMS INITIATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

...ERN WY AND WRN SD...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN WY INTO THE
BLACK HILLS AREA OF WRN SD WHERE ELY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL EXIST
BENEATH INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN MODEST IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT APPEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MODEST SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD NEWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS AREA MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK
IN LATER UPDATES.

..DIAL/LEITMAN.. 04/26/2014

Day 2 Includes I-35 counties and those to the East. OKC impacts are going to be early in this Outlook, but it still covers us. Severe weather outbreak and the first high risk of the year for the US seems to be on tap.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AR...FAR NRN LA/NERN TX/ERN
OK/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS CENTERED FROM THE
ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS NEB. AN
ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL
PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW...CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE
MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

...MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST...
OVERALL SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK AMIDST
CONTINUED LIMITING FACTORS.

THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML WITH
LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND
ARKLATEX BY EARLY EVENING SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH INITIALLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN FROM PARTS OF IA TO
OK. ALTHOUGH THE BULK THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED...IT SHOULD
TRANSITION TO BECOMING SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS LEAD CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS EWD.

THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION...THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN
EXTENT/. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AT LEAST
MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG INTO NERN KS AS
INSOLATION OCCURS ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA WOULD FOSTER
SCATTERED STORMS FORMING BY MID-AFTERNOON INVOF KS/MO BORDER.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY MERIDIONAL
HERE...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WOULD AID IN SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO
THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL /SOME
SIGNIFICANT/ AND AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. PARTS OF
THIS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT
APPEARS STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE TOO
DETRIMENTAL TO THE AFTERNOON THREAT.

FARTHER S...A MORE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST S
OF ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION /INVOF THE ARKLATEX/. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO THE 80S/90S ALONG/W OF THE DRYLINE IN
TX...MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF IT. HODOGRAPHS
APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE CO-LOCATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND LARGE
CURVING HODOGRAPHS. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGER KINEMATIC
FIELDS WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER EAST /CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/. BUT WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NERN
TX SUN NIGHT...TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

One thing I noticed and was picked up on another forum is that difference in how various forecasters are approaching today/Saturday. Definitely different wording when you compare the Day 2 to the new Day 1, especially when models have shown a bit more favorable setup for the nocturnal situation. I wouldn't be shocked to see things modified again on the next update when a different forecaster takes a look at it.

Earlier models runs seem to have handled moisture return fairly. 60 degree dews are just about to Waco, so moisture return is more or less on time.

Michael Armstrong's take.

https://www.facebook.com/michael.armstrong.14811/posts/10203615807340620?fref=nf
See, this is where Mike Morgan messed up, what do you if plan B fails? Or how about C? I have a stretch of plans that included more than Z all the way to an upside down U. Can't ever be too prepared and Mike Morgan should know that. ;)

Jn1780, I guess I'm not the only one who looked at that fleet and started thinking about how much all that cost - and how they pay for it.
Lots of sponsors/advertisers

https://twitter.com/okstormchaser/status/459870251740454914/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=tornadopayne&utm_content=459897861577003008