Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
5 hours ago
I would not be surprised if this Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be the most significant multi-day tornado outbreak in the U.S. since 2011. Saturday and Sunday will be focused from KS/NE south to TX, and a large part of the central/Lower MS River Valley eastward on Monday. Stay tuned, as this could be a very dangerous storm system for most of the southern U.S. east of the Rockies.

The NWS map still shows OKC at the very western edge of the severe zone for Sunday. On Saturday its showing western Oklahoma as the focal point but the metro is well within the severe zone.

You'd better make your peace with God, son.

Nice little supercell now moving into SW OK, but looks like additional development south of it may interrupt play.

Mike Morgan OKC CH 4 indicates:
A moderate risk for the OKC metro on Sunday that includes the possibility of strong tornadoes.

I saw that, but Channel 9 is showing a very low chance on Sunday. From the forecasts I have seen, the OKC area may possibly be spared from the worst of this unless Mike Morgan's forecast for Sunday turns out to be accurate and the dry line sets up out west of El Reno. Correct me if I am wrong.

You'd better make your peace with God, son.

No need for insults.

Hopefully we get a better idea tonight after midnight when the Euro runs again. Any forecasts out there right now have probably 5% of confidence right now just because things aren't settled or uniform among the models.

Back to tonight, the cell Anon talked about is ingesting some crapvection that popped to the south of it, so its pretty well disrupted for now. More coming in from Childress and also from down around Crowell.

Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
5 hours ago
I would not be surprised if this Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be the most significant multi-day tornado outbreak in the U.S. since 2011. Saturday and Sunday will be focused from KS/NE south to TX, and a large part of the central/Lower MS River Valley eastward on Monday. Stay tuned, as this could be a very dangerous storm system for most of the southern U.S. east of the Rockies.

And fire will rain from the skies.

Venture, do these move into the metro tonight severe?

Debating whether to park in a parking garage or not.

Venture, do these move into the metro tonight severe?

Debating whether to park in a parking garage or not.

There is a chance they will still have hail. If it were me, I would be the chicken parking in the garage. :)

A lot of garbage around this storm in SW OK, but could be some pretty tough winds or a quick spin up with it...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/23-4.png

No need for insults.

While you're right about that, try to not go overboard on posting the same things over and over. At this point, you come across as panicky and that clogs up the thread for the serious weather information.

Just listen to anon and venture and you'll be better than with anything Mike Morgan has to say.

Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
5 hours ago
I would not be surprised if this Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be the most significant multi-day tornado outbreak in the U.S. since 2011. Saturday and Sunday will be focused from KS/NE south to TX, and a large part of the central/Lower MS River Valley eastward on Monday. Stay tuned, as this could be a very dangerous storm system for most of the southern U.S. east of the Rockies.

Am I the only one who finds this statement to be somewhat irresponsible, especially coming from a "trained weather professional?"

Am I the only one who finds this statement to be somewhat irresponsible, especially coming from a "trained weather professional?"

I agree. Not even Mike Morgan who generally forecasts a worst-case scenario is taking it that far.

And fire will rain from the skies.OKC Boomer?

OKC Boomer?

Naw, new guy. I've been watching the forum as a guest and finally decided to register.

I agree. Not even Mike Morgan who generally forecasts a worst-case scenario is taking it that far.

Reed Timmer is still in reality-show mode. He'll hype a rainbow as the harbinger of death and plague if it gets him on the air.

I agree. Not even Mike Morgan who generally forecasts a worst-case scenario is taking it that far.

The weekend is young. I suspect Morgan is cooking up his own special brew of Terrifying Weather Adjectivestm for just this occasion.

Maybe Mike will get a new sparkle tie.

The weekend is young. I suspect Morgan is cooking up his own special brew of Terrifying Weather Adjectivestm for just this occasion.

Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.

Maybe Mike will get a new sparkle tie.

He is going to reveal his new tie with LED lights.

I suspect Morgan is cooking up his own special brew of Terrifying Weather Adjectivestm

Gotta love it!

Storm with golf balls heading for Chickasha. Will be there in about an hour.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/23-5.png

That storm in the back is a trooper.

Also additional development occurring in NW TX. hopefully we can get some training MCS's going and give us good rain.

Storm with golf balls heading for Chickasha. Will be there in about an hour.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/23-5.png


Sigh... Time for the hail preparation ritual.

Okay, after a relatively mild severe weather day - which was no where near KWTV's or KFOR's moderate risk - it is time to move on to look at this weekend. Now there are a lot of scary things being put out there. I'm debating how best to present this because we really haven't had the best run to run consistency. One run will show an amazing setup and the next a bustpalooza.

For the last few days the most reliable and consistent model in this has been the ECMWF. So I'm going to start with that. We are looking at moisture return beginning late Friday. This means that the atmosphere will be limited on just how primed it can get with quality moisture. By late Friday dews in the 50s should be common from the Metro area south to the Red. Mid 60s by Saturday morning and continue through the day. I then get concerned though because it shows daytime highs out in Western OK reaching into the low 90s. That's a pretty significant depression storms will need to overcome. Regardless, Euro has storms breaking out along the dryline by 7PM moving into South Central OK by 1AM. Then it pops up some random heavy rain at 7AM to the NW of the OKC metro area. Cold front doesn't move through until early Monday based on the Euro, but the dryline apparently gets some boosters and blasts to I-35 by 1PM Sunday. It then effectively stalls out and retreats slightly before the front moves it out. So as far as Sunday is concerned, wherever that dryline stalls out is going to be very key.

I know I'm focusing on the dryline a bit, but let's be honest - if you are west of it this weekend - you are pretty much out of the woods for the most significant severe weather. Looking back at the previous Euro runs. Looking at the 12Z run on the 22nd at 1PM Sunday it had the dryline roughly Bartlesville-Tulsa-Seminole-Thackerville. The 00Z on the 23rd at 1PM Sunday had it running right on I-35. On the 12Z on the 23rd for 1PM Sunday had it running Alva-Watonga-Duncan-Waurika. Then this run it is snapped back east to about 20-30 miles west of I-35. So we had a trend of 3 runs of moving further west and now a snap back to the east. We need to get things to settle down regarding boundary placement.

When we look at the GFS for the 1PM time frame on Sunday, it is much further east than the Euro. It is almost 60 miles further east than the Euro's current solution. This is a bit further west than the 18Z run earlier on Wednesday. Okay so that's the surface. Let's go upstairs...

Classic negatively tilted trough comes in for the weekend. You might be like, what the heck is a neg tilted trough. Well here is an image from the GFS for Sunday evening.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/apr14/gfsUS_250_spd_096.gif

A trough that is leaning back or digging in, however you want to phrase it, is a negatively tilted trough. Both GFS and Euro show this. Euro is a bit further to the west for this time frame (7PM Sunday)...which definitely raises concern significantly for Sunday. To put it simply, you really don't want to be at the tip of the finger pointing at you while having conditions favorable for storms.

So I'll stop there before going into anymore detail. We have the possibility for a significant weather evening Saturday and Sunday. There are still a ton of questions for either day, but what big day doesn't have that. As I was typing this the new Day 3 came out for Saturday, so I'll post that next and see how far off I am. LOL

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS. VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...CAN BE EXPECTED.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN U.S./MEXICAN BORDER EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NM BY 27/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN EJECT
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
80KT+ AT 500MB. INTENSE 12-HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...APPROACHING
200M...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CENTERED ON SERN CO.

AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER ERN CO AND A WELL-DEFINED LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD INTO NRN
MEXICO. INTENSE HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS TROUGH DURING THE
DAY AND A DRYLINE SHOULD MIX INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z.
WHILE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IT
APPEARS DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY INGEST 50S SFC DEW POINTS
AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 80S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 90F FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
BREACHED BY 21Z AND SCT SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY DIABATIC
HEATING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SPEED MAX
WILL LAG THIS CORRIDOR OF INITIATION UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK. DELAYED
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT ULTIMATELY
EVOLVE ALONG THE DRYLINE.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL DO SO ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 3000 J/KG SBCAPE AND SHOULD MATURE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ARE
EXPECTED. AS TSTMS SHIFT EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SLIGHTLY
THERE MAY BE A PROPENSITY FOR CLOUD BASES TO LOWER AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS. AS A RESULT...TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY
DECOUPLES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT
THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT BEGINS
TO SURGE ACROSS SWRN KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX.

SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION IF
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/FORCING OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE AT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME DIURNALLY.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2014

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY SUNDAY...AND MS
VALLEY/CNTRL GULF STATES ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF UPPER LOW AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE
MS VALLEY MONDAY. AFTER INITIAL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER TX AND SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
NCNTRL GULF STATES/TN VALLEY. ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS
STRONGER FLOW THAN THE GFS BUT THE IDEA THAT STRONG FLOW SHOULD
OVERSPREAD A BUOYANT AIRMASS BOTH DAYS REMAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH AGREEING THAT SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING
WILL SPREAD EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
MID-LEVEL JET THAT EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS MAY
TRANSPIRE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM SERN
NEB...ACROSS ERN KS/OK INTO NERN TX BEFORE SPREADING INTO WRN
MO/AR/NWRN LA.

DEEP SFC CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND ARCING FRONTAL POSITION AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD EXTEND ALONG/NEAR
THE KS/MO BORDER...SWD INTO SERN TX. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS 80KT 500MB FLOW EJECTS ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2014

Day 4 change is in line with the faster moving dryline I had spoken about. It seems they are wanting to follow this thinking the models have pushed in the majority of the last few runs. If this surge east takes place than Western and most of Central OK gets hot and dry Sunday with high fire danger.

I'll throw it out there that there is a possibility the Central third of Oklahoma gets out of this without high end severe weather. However, if we see the dryline explode with convection and long lived supercells make it into the evening/overnight feeding off the LLJ...then ignore that last sentence. Regardless of what the local heads say - nothing is set in stone.

Venture... According to the SPC they now have a slight chance for Saturday and have seemed to focus more on Sunday and Monday to a "severe threat" with some strong tornadoes possible. Do you concur that Sunday may be a worse day? This could possibly be good news for bchris02 as OKC wouldn't really see the "highest chance" of impacts it would be just east of OKC to Tulsa to Little Rock.

Am I the only one who finds this statement to be somewhat irresponsible, especially coming from a "trained weather professional?"

Reed Timmer works for ratings, and only ratings. He is a very bright guy, but I'm not sure why anyone would take his opinion over other professionals, especially when the hype machine has been known to be in effect.

Some of the models have me doubting a large scale outbreak (particularly tornadoes) on Saturday. Moisture return seems to be getting increasingly meager on the models, and yesterday's dewpoints verified much lower than models had it. The drought is doing its magic. It wouldn't totally shock me to see just a few supercells go up. Unfortunately, meager or not, the moisture return is expected to increase right around sunset, so it wouldn't shock me if the tornado threat existed into the night which is obviously no good -- but I'm not sure I'm seeing epic outbreak on Saturday like maybe I once was. Still some nasty analogs being noted by CIPS, but that's assuming the modeled dewpoint values are correct (among other things).

Venture... According to the SPC they now have a slight chance for Saturday and have seemed to focus more on Sunday and Monday to a "severe threat" with some strong tornadoes possible. Do you concur that Sunday may be a worse day? This could possibly be good news for bchris02 as OKC wouldn't really see the "highest chance" of impacts it would be just east of OKC to Tulsa to Little Rock.

It's good for everyone in central Oklahoma, not just me. I don't think I'm the only person who doesn't want to see a catastrophic outbreak like last year.

Looks like moisture return Sat is going to be the ultimate key in this whole setup....

bchris02... I understand it would be great but severe weather is going to happen no matter what. A ton of deaths unfortunately happen due to people not caring about warning sirens and not taking mets seriously. When the tornado hit Joplin a few years back there was a lot of people that honestly said they thought it was just another false alarm and went about it like nothing was going to happen. If people have a plan, and take what we are all saying seriously, there is no reason for any deaths. I know your response will probably be well some people don't have adequate shelter for a tornado but the truth is there are multiple places to go if you don't. When I was younger I lived in Bartlesville, OK and we would always go to the parking garage at the hospital if we knew a severe storm was coming. For one, we went there to protect our cars from hail damage, and two, parking garages are solid concrete and have stair wells in them with reinforced steel. I'm not saying by any means get out in drive during a storm but if you watch the weather and there saying there is a storm heading your way you have at least 15-20 minutes to figure something out. Living in tornado alley means there are a lot of people with shelters that would likely let you get in them with them. We have a few days til this makes it here to figure out the best structure to go to and everything. People should honestly watch the weather closely the day of and not just tune in once the clouds get dark.

Looks like moisture return Sat is going to be the ultimate key in this whole setup....

The drought has sometime impacted the quality of moisture avaiable.
To some degree it seems like the residual moisture in east Texas seems like it would have an impact? but to what degree I'm not sure......?
They have seen recent rains.
Based of the map on the link (Keetch-Byram Drought Index) it looks like SSE winds would bring back better moisture than winds out of the due south? Any thoughts?


http://twc.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdi4km.png

The drought has sometime impacted the quality of moisture avaiable.
To some degree it seems like the residual moisture in east Texas seems like it would have an impact? but to what degree I'm not sure......?
They have seen recent rains.
Based of the map on the link (Keetch-Byram Drought Index) it looks like SSE winds would bring back better moisture than winds out of the due south? Any thoughts?

http://twc.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdi4km.png

Winds from the SSE or SE empirically bring back more moisture as they're typically sourced out of the Gulf of Mexico, bringing in buckets of humidity to fuel a storm-favorable environment.

Reed Timmer works for ratings, and only ratings. He is a very bright guy, but I'm not sure why anyone would take his opinion over other professionals, especially when the hype machine has been known to be in effect.

Some of the models have me doubting a large scale outbreak (particularly tornadoes) on Saturday. Moisture return seems to be getting increasingly meager on the models, and yesterday's dewpoints verified much lower than models had it. The drought is doing its magic. It wouldn't totally shock me to see just a few supercells go up. Unfortunately, meager or not, the moisture return is expected to increase right around sunset, so it wouldn't shock me if the tornado threat existed into the night which is obviously no good -- but I'm not sure I'm seeing epic outbreak on Saturday like maybe I once was. Still some nasty analogs being noted by CIPS, but that's assuming the modeled dewpoint values are correct (among other things).

This sums it up well...on both Saturday and Timmer.


Winds from the SSE or SE empirically bring back more moisture as they're typically sourced out of the Gulf of Mexico, bringing in buckets of humidity to fuel a storm-favorable environment.

Exactly.

12Z NAM and GFS all but eliminate any severe threat Sunday along and west of I-35 for the main show - anything overnight/left over from Saturday is not included in this. Until we start to see a reversal and slowing of the dryline's progression, there just isn't going to be much of a threat to the area and west.

Saturday the models can't agree on where things will pop. Overall setup hasn't really changed. The moisture return on GFS is pathetic...waiting until Saturday morning for richer moisture to work back up here - which isn't going to be in time for any significant. It'll be like yesterday where dewpoints did creep up pretty good, but the depth of quality moisture was terrible.

I've been trying to stay fairly neutral but I'm going to show a bit more pessimism on the setup unless things change. I also am reminded that this is still April. In my experience the better setups have always seems to race through and impact Eastern OK more.

SPC SREF SREF_prob_sigtor_5_ (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_sigtor_5__)
?

SPC SREF SREF_prob_sigtor_5_ (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_sigtor_5__)
?

Did you have a question about that product?

Did you have a question about that product?
I have never seen this before.....I guess I should have ask how accurate is it?

I have never seen this before.....I guess I should have ask how accurate is it?

Sig Tor is a product that's been around awhile. I've linked it in the past as it is also available from some of the model runs. It usually holds some weight in paying attention, but it also needs to be used in conjunction with what is actually going on. The version you link for example. It shows a pretty focused area and moderate/high SIGTOR values over SW OK early this morning at about 4AM. Of course - there wasn't any tornadic weather at that time. We really need to have other factors line up for SIGTOR to be worth anyone's time. If there is on going storms at the time, or storms are expected to form, and other conditions are favorable for convective development - then we would look at SIGTOR to get an idea on tornado potential and risk for a strong tornado. It is also important to watch the time stamps of the forecast. Anytime after dark and through the morning hours will normally showcase moderate SIGTOR values just because it is when we normally have higher shear and helicity values. While CAPE, CIN, and LCL height are factors in the equation so is bulk wind shear and storm relative helicity. Those last two can make things look worse than they are. Now. Last year during the May tornadoes, we did have higher SIGTOR values during convective activity so it lined up and actually meant something.

For those that want to see the math: Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/stp.html)

Sig Tor (CIN) = (mlCAPE / 1500 J/kg) * (ESRH / 150 m2/s2) * (EBWD / 12 m/s) * ((2000 - mlLCL) / 1000) * ((mlCINH + 200) / 150)

Okay I've been debating putting this out there, and have discussed it with others here about it, but I think it might be important to do so since it is floating around on facebook pages and other forums.

CIPS, the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems, puts out a product title CIPS Analog Guidance. What this does is compare upcoming events to previous events that share similar environmental setups. It is not 100% accurate and just gives us another tool to use and compare to what could happen with what has happened in the past. It doesn't mean it will do what it did on these past dates, but it allows us to compare with the faults and successes of those setups. So when you hear some drama queens going on about how this weekend matches a big day in the past, this is probably what they are using to pull those dates from.

So for Saturday, here is the 12Z NAM Analogs: CIPS Analog Guidance: Southern Plains F060 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&model=NAM212&fhr=F060&flg=)

Top Analogs - Scores:Columns in the table are sortable by header. For more information about a specific event, click on the date.
A perfect field score is 1.0. The final score weights 850HGHT 3 times, 850TMP 2 times. The maximum final score is 14DATE (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=DATE)300HGHT (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=300HGHT)500HGHT (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=500HGHT)850HGHT (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=850HGHT)850SPED (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=850SPED)PMSL (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=PMSL)850TMP (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=850TMP)850MIXR (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=850MIXR)2mTMP (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=2mTMP)2mDWP (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=2mDWP)AVGRELH (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=AVGRELH)PWTR (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=PWTR)F054 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=F054)F060 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=F060)F066 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=F066)FINAL (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&sort=FINAL)19840426/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=1984042600)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.9400.9460.9570.9110.9500.7550.8940.83 40.8300.8630.93711.84112.48912.46812.26620110410/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=2011041000)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/cold.png0.9150.9200.9480.8950.9230.8420.8540.8710. 8300.8450.92911.76112.50912.42012.23019990504/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=1999050400)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/cold.png0.8600.8690.9370.9070.9350.7560.8820.8450. 8720.8820.94711.98112.32112.37912.22720050405/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=2005040500)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.8710.8640.8650.9280.9280.8050.8580.86 90.9050.8740.91912.19412.22212.16512.19420060406/0600 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=2006040606)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.8870.8640.9330.8890.9330.8240.7890.77 30.8130.8210.89312.21512.10812.03712.12019940425/0600 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=1994042506)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.8440.9190.9290.8780.9280.8300.8660.74 80.8130.8390.93111.70212.21212.23912.05120110510/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=2011051000)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.9090.9150.8890.8230.9060.8650.8360.84 20.7980.8690.91512.20912.20911.62012.01319890427/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=1989042700)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/cold.png0.8470.8770.8840.7470.8680.9180.8250.9070. 8920.8020.91812.14112.17111.58811.96719820402/0600 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=1982040206)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.9020.9030.9130.8780.9190.7230.8640.58 60.7690.7700.89511.77811.67112.38811.94619910326/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=1991032600)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.7850.8800.9110.9270.9250.8120.8660.91 90.8530.8240.91311.88812.24811.63011.92219850511/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=1985051100)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/cold.png0.7990.8460.9040.8210.9290.8410.8320.8880. 8040.7940.89211.64211.99912.11611.91919930607/0600 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=1993060706)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/warm.png0.8680.9080.9380.8560.9180.8330.7030.8420. 6790.8050.84311.66711.90111.92211.83020060330/0600 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=2006033006)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.9070.9170.9450.8730.9400.7360.8220.60 30.6700.8030.92111.64811.76311.97911.79720070607/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=2007060700)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.7740.8600.9500.8450.9570.8070.7950.84 40.8250.8490.90911.72412.11911.54211.79520020418/0600 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&model=NAM212&dt=2002041806)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.7950.8320.9220.8010.9230.8670.7820.77 60.7900.8050.90611.93111.90811.54611.795ENSO Phase Occurring with Analog: Warm http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/warm.png, Cold http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/cold.png, and Neutral http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.pngNote: ESNO phases are for reference only and are not used in the selection and rank of individual analogs.
For the 12Z GFS: CIPS Analog Guidance: Southern Plains F084 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&model=GFS212&fhr=F084&flg=)

Top Analogs - Scores:Columns in the table are sortable by header. For more information about a specific event, click on the date.
A perfect field score is 1.0. The final score weights 850HGHT 3 times, 850TMP 2 times. The maximum final score is 14DATE (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=DATE)300HGHT (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=300HGHT)500HGHT (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT)850HGHT (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=850HGHT)850SPED (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=850SPED)PMSL (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=PMSL)850TMP (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=850TMP)850MIXR (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=850MIXR)2mTMP (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=2mTMP)2mDWP (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=2mDWP)AVGRELH (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=AVGRELH)PWTR (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=PWTR)F078 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=F078)F084 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=F084)F090 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=F090)FINAL (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&sort=FINAL)20050410/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=2005041000)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.8950.8550.9410.9230.9580.8750.8750.85 20.9010.8100.89411.85012.53412.21412.19919990504/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1999050400)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/cold.png0.8530.8240.8980.9390.9400.8850.8290.8140. 9160.7580.90111.68512.23912.63712.18719840426/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1984042600)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.9170.9020.8980.8280.9280.9110.8040.80 90.8510.8090.86411.78912.22712.43612.15119910412/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1991041200)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.9110.9350.9650.8480.9220.8920.8870.76 70.9170.7690.88611.72112.52312.20212.14920050508/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=2005050800)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.8830.8780.9310.9160.9370.8360.8720.85 80.8910.8090.91412.18612.42211.72212.11019940425/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1994042500)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.8730.8880.9410.8960.9530.8610.8580.86 10.8750.8060.89712.08912.45011.73512.09119910326/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1991032600)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.8170.8740.9120.8930.9560.8900.8510.90 20.8580.7120.86112.04312.23911.85512.04619850422/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1985042200)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/cold.png0.7990.7720.9520.9110.9560.8600.8650.7600. 9140.7760.88811.60412.21912.25512.02619840315/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1984031500)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.8780.8060.9130.9150.9510.8680.8580.81 30.8520.8150.89212.07812.25411.68912.00720100430/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=2010043000)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/warm.png0.8190.8340.8710.8450.8990.9420.8250.9140. 8860.7810.86111.69212.16112.12611.99320120415/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=2012041500)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.7890.8620.9300.8750.9370.8700.8480.79 20.9490.8040.89711.49812.28212.16911.98319980514/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1998051400)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.9040.8800.9150.9220.9010.9060.7980.77 40.8530.8140.88811.86512.29111.77611.97719810328/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1981032800)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.9640.9690.9480.9390.9510.8130.8220.85 40.7970.7830.87311.82312.42511.66411.97119990510/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1999051000)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/cold.png0.6730.7480.9110.9520.9230.9290.8420.8620. 8760.8580.89311.98612.21611.62411.94219820402/0000 (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=SP&fhr=F084&model=GFS212&dt=1982040200)  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.png0.8520.8340.9110.9150.9510.8900.8420.88 00.8760.7140.85211.67012.22911.85611.918ENSO Phase Occurring with Analog: Warm http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/warm.png, Cold http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/cold.png, and Neutral http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/favicon/neutral.pngNote: ESNO phases are for reference only and are not used in the selection and rank of individual analogs.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0394.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND WRN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241813Z - 242015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO TRACK EWD ACROSS ERN OK. FRONTAL ASCENT AND STRONG
DCVA PRECEDING A PV MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN EWD PROGRESSION
OF ONGOING CONVECTION. DESPITE CAPPING EVIDENT IN THE 12Z OUN
RAOB...ALSO SIGNALED BY STANDING WAVE CLOUD FORMATIONS/BILLOWS OVER
THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS...DIURNAL PRE-FRONTAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT AN EROSION OF ANTECEDENT MLCINH WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. AS SUCH...FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...PREFRONTAL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT -- MAXIMIZED INVOF A REMNANT/DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ANALYZED FROM SERN OK TO CNTRL/S-CNTRL AR -- MAY CONTINUE TO BOLSTER
CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR AS
SFC WINDS VEER TO THE SSW /PER RECENT OBS/ AND SUPPORT THE INFLUX OF
RICHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN BUOYANCY. GIVEN FAST MID-LEVEL
FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014

Sig Tor is a product that's been around awhile. I've linked it in the past as it is also available from some of the model runs. It usually holds some weight in paying attention, but it also needs to be used in conjunction with what is actually going on. The version you link for example. It shows a pretty focused area and moderate/high SIGTOR values over SW OK early this morning at about 4AM. Of course - there wasn't any tornadic weather at that time. We really need to have other factors line up for SIGTOR to be worth anyone's time. If there is on going storms at the time, or storms are expected to form, and other conditions are favorable for convective development - then we would look at SIGTOR to get an idea on tornado potential and risk for a strong tornado. It is also important to watch the time stamps of the forecast. Anytime after dark and through the morning hours will normally showcase moderate SIGTOR values just because it is when we normally have higher shear and helicity values. While CAPE, CIN, and LCL height are factors in the equation so is bulk wind shear and storm relative helicity. Those last two can make things look worse than they are. Now. Last year during the May tornadoes, we did have higher SIGTOR values during convective activity so it lined up and actually meant something.

For those that want to see the math: Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/stp.html)

Sig Tor (CIN) = (mlCAPE / 1500 J/kg) * (ESRH / 150 m2/s2) * (EBWD / 12 m/s) * ((2000 - mlLCL) / 1000) * ((mlCINH + 200) / 150)

Thanks for your explanation....
The vast majority of us still understand we are still dealing with something that is inexact and can change very quickly....
That's one reason why I don't mine informed WX dissenting opinions.
I feel most of us are smart enough (or should be) to make good WX decisions for our own life’s.

Not related to this weekend, but longer range there has been consistent hint of another round of active weather coming in around May 3rd through at least the 9th. Not every day...but that period of time.

May 3rd

:omg:

Not related to this weekend, but longer range there has been consistent hint of another round of active weather coming in around May 3rd through at least the 9th. Not every day...but that period of time.I'm telling you, if another EF5 goes through Moore on May 3rd, that place is cursed and needs to be vacated :p

I'm telling you, if another EF5 goes through Moore on May 3rd, that place is cursed and needs to be vacated :p

I dare one to even try.... I'll be standing on my back porch with my putter in my hand ready to strike it down! ;)

Edit: Oops... Just realized I'll be in Ardmore that weekend with a fishing rod in my hand..... Moore will have to fend for itself. :wink:

Although it doesn't mean much, KOCO's tornado scale rates western oklahomas chance at a 4/10 and the Metro at a 2/10

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30xt2lHCPyI

I dare one to even try.... I'll be standing on my back porch with my putter in my hand ready to strike it down! ;)

Edit: Oops... Just realized I'll be in Ardmore that weekend with a fishing rod in my hand..... Moore will have to fend for itself. :wink:Maybe someone could get drunk and run up to it naked, with a bottle of whiskey like Bill did and scream ''HAVE A DRINK''

Not related to this weekend, but longer range there has been consistent hint of another round of active weather coming in around May 3rd through at least the 9th. Not every day...but that period of time.

Chris just swooned!!! :) (I kid, I kid). If we get tornado attack during that time, there are going to be people so freaked out he's going to be the one telling them to calm down.

You know eventually were going to run out of days in May that is not associated with some kind of historical tornado event. lol

Seriously? Someone on FB just sent this to me!!

Forecasters Are Already Predicting a Massive Tornado Outbreak This Weekend (http://news.msn.com/us/forecasters-are-already-predicting-a-massive-tornado-outbreak-this-weekend-1?ocid=newssocial)

Everyone needs to chill out a bit in regards to this weekend.....things are far from certain for the metro and at this point I don't see anything near the magnitude of last May in the cards.

I read the article thinking it would tone down the eye catching headline but it was just as bad. I even looked at the NWS site to see if they were saying it was going to be severe on top of severe and didn't see that. I wanted to be nice to the lady who sent it to me because I appreciate that she cares. But with that sort of thing going on, half my friends and family are going to be convinced I am in the grim reaper's crosshairs.

Although it doesn't mean much, KOCO's tornado scale rates western oklahomas chance at a 4/10 and the Metro at a 2/10
Dessert Fox, this is in no way directed at you, more aimed the mainstream weather. When we have a chance of rain, its 40% and 20%. But, when we have a chance of tornadoes, its 4/10 and 2/10???? Most of us can do some basic math.

I read the article thinking it would tone down the eye catching headline but it was just as bad. I even looked at the NWS site to see if they were saying it was going to be severe on top of severe and didn't see that. I wanted to be nice to the lady who sent it to me because I appreciate that she cares. But with that sort of thing going on, half my friends and family are going to be convinced I am in the grim reaper's crosshairs.

Venture can and obviously will correct me if I'm misreading this, but the most recent severe outlook for OK on Saturday doesn't look *nearly* as ominous as many were suggesting earlier this week. Some of the earlier forecasts were suggesting ridiculously high instability (something like 4K+ CAPE values) with big moisture return and dewpoints into the 70's, but it looks (again, assuming I'm reading the outlook correctly), initiation may form in a much narrower region of much lower (but still respectable) CAPE and lower dewpoints. Mind you, there's still a severe threat there, but it isn't nearly as grim.

Bottom line: Heed Venture when he warns us all not to take the long range outlooks as carved in stone. They're just that - outlooks based on mathematical models and a great deal of intuition, and maybe some cold pizza and oregano :)

With the appropriate sensitivities considered, I have this sinking feeling that the big show is going to pass central OK by this time through.

Bottom line: Heed Venture when he warns us all not to take the long range outlooks as carved in stone. They're just that - outlooks based on mathematical models and a great deal of intuition, and maybe some cold pizza and oregano :)

And these days, maybe defining "oregano" loosely. :)