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tomokc
03-13-2014, 08:51 AM
What "powers" the engines is jet fuel. What "powers" the transponders (and all avionics) is electricity.

The Malaysian civilian aviation authorities have provided the last known position of the flight. It is now being reported that Rolls Royce received information from the engines for an additional four hours. Assuming no-wind conditions in cruise configuration at cruise altitude, and based upon the estimated fuel on board, that range is 2,200 nautical miles. Change any constant (airspeed, fuel burn or FOB) and that affects the estimated range (and search area).

The engine data are transmitted automatically and manually by a system called ACARS which uses VHF frequencies linked with ground stations up to around 200 miles away. The messages are in text format "blocks" consisting of 220 characters or less (think of tweets, but a little longer in length). Up to 16 blocks can be transmitted in one message. Automatic messages are sent at various times during the flight - immediately after takeoff, top of climb, cruise and descent. Messages are also sent automatically when performance anomalies are detected, such as an engine ingesting birds and being shut down by the crew in flight. Flight crews can also manually compose and transmit messages through a screen interface in the cockpit, usually reporting information to the airline for dispatch purposes (one example would be that they're running late due to ATC routing).

tomokc
03-13-2014, 09:06 AM
I'm not sure I trust that report. I would think Boeing and Rolls Royce would be waving their hands in the air more, if they felt confident data was still being sent.

You don't trust WHICH report? The Helios 522 description is from the accident investigation.

Rolls Royce did not have an obligation to report. (In their agreement with most airlines, the engine manufacturer owns the ACARS-generated data.) I understand RR's hesitance to come out with it until now because the Malaysian government's investigation has been a Keystone Kops fiasco ever since they started identifying - and repeatedly changing - last known positions and search areas.

To underscore the Malaysian government's incompetence, they have rejected RR's claim to have four hours of engine performance data. How do they know what RR has, or doesn't have?

trousers
03-13-2014, 08:31 PM
I may be oversimplifying this...did no one on this flight have an iPhone? Aren't they supposed to be able to find you off of that?

Snowman
03-13-2014, 08:33 PM
I may be oversimplifying this...did no one on this flight have an iPhone? Aren't they supposed to be able to find you off of that?

That only works if you are in range of either a cell tower or wifi it can connect through

trousers
03-13-2014, 08:40 PM
So movies have lied to me?! Damn it.

Just the facts
03-13-2014, 08:46 PM
So the plane could have simply flown out of communication range of the engines.

RadicalModerate
03-13-2014, 08:52 PM
Perhaps Neil deGrassi Tyson, Steven Hawking, Robert Stack and Lloyd Bridges could be brought into the case?
If any of them are unavailable, maybe Bill Nye?

traemac
03-13-2014, 09:26 PM
Perhaps Neil deGrassi Tyson, Steven Hawking, Robert Stack and Lloyd Bridges could be brought into the case?
If any of them are unavailable, maybe Bill Nye?

Bill Nye has been on cnn providing analysis. He use to work at Boeing.

trousers
03-13-2014, 09:36 PM
and Lloyd Bridges could be brought into the case?

I was sooo close to posting an airplane clip but even I knew that was inappropriate.

RadicalModerate
03-13-2014, 10:01 PM
Bill Nye has been on cnn providing analysis. He use to work at Boeing.

A good example of life imitating art . . . and vice-versa.
(or at least fleshing out The News)

p.s. When I mentioned Lloyd Bridges, I was thinking of Mike Nelson.
When I mentioned Robert Stack, Elliot Ness.
And Neil and Steve?: Science Guys.

SoonerDave
03-13-2014, 10:17 PM
Given how advanced the 777 is in terms of its electronics, fly by wire capability, the works, one would think there's be some sensor or telemetry data that would reflect a sudden, catastrophic loss of compression in the crew/passenger cabin.

What are the chances at this point, however propeller-headed it may sound, that someone actually commandeered the aircraft, turned off the transponders, and even purposely flew the plane in some circuitous route to obscure any possible "trail sniffing" as it were, and actually landed the thing at some obscure location in the region for presently unknown purposes? Is it possible for an aircraft of that size to land somewhere entirely undetected?

Or, perhaps even more curiously, assuming for the sake of the discussion that some adverse individual(s) did, in fact, commandeer that plane, wouldn't it follow that they'd have to take it to a place where it could be serviced/refueled in anticipation of doing something with it once it was acquired? That is, if you went to the trouble of "stealing" it, surely you'd have a purpose for it once you had it. So you'd have to be able to get it back in the air. Even assuming that, wouldn't an otherwise unidentified aircraft suddenly entering someone's airspace trigger off an alarm and scramble some nation's air defenses (for a rogue aircraft)??

Fully realize I'm talking through my hat here, but at this point, in the absence of anything concrete to the contrary, it's at least worth talking about.

RadicalModerate
03-13-2014, 10:22 PM
It wasn't about kidnapping or stealing the airplane.
It was about one of the passengers.
(dang. I need to run up to the store for more Reynolds Wrap.)

tomokc
03-13-2014, 11:03 PM
SoonerDave - There is no evidence that the aircraft lost pressurization.

The transponders were deactivated, either by someone on board or a systems failure.

If the aircraft was commandeered with the intent of stealing it, the hijackers would have likely flown it directly to their destination. It isn't the chase scene from Bullitt, and the longer they're in the air, the greater the odds of detection, and the more fuel they'd have to find to refuel it later. Yes, it may have landed someplace undetected, and every runway in the region is under intense scrutiny right now. Incidentally, flying an airliner at low altitudes exponentially increases fuel burn.

Nice hat, by the way.

MsProudSooner
03-13-2014, 11:32 PM
If it were commandeered, would it have been possible for a passenger to send a text message?

SoonerDave
03-13-2014, 11:35 PM
SoonerDave - There is no evidence that the aircraft lost pressurization.


That's what I meant - surely something would have indicated that, and to my knowledge there's been no such report.




The transponders were deactivated, either by someone on board or a systems failure.



Clearly.



If the aircraft was commandeered with the intent of stealing it, the hijackers would have likely flown it directly to their destination. It isn't the chase scene from Bullitt....

Sorry, but I don't get this reference...


...and the longer they're in the air, the greater the odds of detection, and the more fuel they'd have to find to refuel it later. Yes, it may have landed someplace undetected, and every runway in the region is under intense scrutiny right now. Incidentally, flying an airliner at low altitudes exponentially increases fuel burn.


All true - the scenario I described was qualified as just being for the sake of discussion. Lots of reasons it wouldn't happen, but then again, no one realistically ever thought someone would fly planes into WTC either. Just not much else to talk about re this mystifying situation at this point.


Nice hat, by the way.

I guess its getting late - I'm not getting this one either, sorry :confused:

Jim Kyle
03-13-2014, 11:57 PM
Does anyone have any idea just how well organized that Chinese activist group that did the knife attack last week might be? If they're sufficiently organized, they might have planted hijackers on board amongst the more than 100 Chinese passengers -- or even the two Iranians who used stolen passports -- and taken the craft to some as yet unknown destination, with plans to either use the passengers as hostages for additional demands on the Chinese government, or to use it as a bomb to hit some major target in China.

Not very likely, perhaps, but not impossible either on the basis of information currently available -- and I'm getting most of my reports about this from the BBC, not the WSJ (which is owned by Murdoch)...

tomokc
03-14-2014, 12:08 AM
SD - You said you were talking through your hat. "Nice hat" was my reply :)

The Bullitt reference was in response to your thought that the plane would be flown "in some circuitous route to obscure any possible "trail sniffing"." It brought to mind the bad guys in the Dodge Charger trying to shake Steve McQueen in the Ford Mustang.

I don't think that your speculation is as far-fetched as people are saying, but perhaps I'm giving too much credit to terrorist networks. If my goal was to seize and make off with an airliner, I'd pick a cargo-configured B-727, B-737 or A320 operating in that part of the world: Weak security, people easily bribed, poor radar coverage, open areas of ocean out of range of radar and voice comm, poor working relations between neighboring countries. I imagine that Jet-A could be bought in large quantities through unscrupulous sources and delivered to remote locations, or simply bought legitimately and delivered to a suitable, out-of-the-way runway. Offload cargo, take on fuel, wait for the right time and fly it to the target.

PhiAlpha
03-14-2014, 01:45 AM
As serious as a heart attack.

The Langoliers (TV Mini-Series 1995) - IMDb (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112040/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1)

I thought about this one too! None of my friends had heard of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SoonerDave
03-14-2014, 05:52 AM
SD - You said you were talking through your hat. "Nice hat" was my reply :)

See, I TOLD you it was late!! Pretty bad when I can't remember my own reply LOL :)

tomokc
03-14-2014, 06:48 AM
And today's wave of MH370 speculation is coming over the transom. It doesn't help that I just put a family member on an international flight.

mkjeeves
03-14-2014, 10:06 AM
http://regretfulmorning.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/im-not-saying-it-was-aliens.jpg

mkjeeves
03-14-2014, 06:26 PM
Slightly used Boeing 777-300 for sale.

Boeing 777-300 (http://vietnam.craigslist.org/for/4372477162.html)

ljbab728
03-15-2014, 01:55 AM
It looks like the hijacking theory is starting to be a focus.

Malaysian official says missing plane hijacked (http://news.yahoo.com/malaysian-official-says-missing-plane-hijacked-051507084.html)

Plutonic Panda
03-15-2014, 01:01 PM
Slightly used Boeing 777-300 for sale.

Boeing 777-300 (http://vietnam.craigslist.org/for/4372477162.html)I think someone put that up for a joke. There is no way it is only 15 million.

silvergrove
03-15-2014, 01:26 PM
I think someone put that up for a joke. There is no way it is only 15 million.

Whoosh!

I laughed at the craigslist post, I feel terrible.

Cocaine
03-15-2014, 11:03 PM
That ad is pretty funny though. I'll feel even worse about it when or if we found out what happened to that plane.

PennyQuilts
03-15-2014, 11:25 PM
And today's wave of MH370 speculation is coming over the transom. It doesn't help that I just put a family member on an international flight.

I've got half my family coming back from New Zealand, next week and the other half going to Europe two weeks later. This makes me queasy.

mugofbeer
03-15-2014, 11:29 PM
My money is on the pilot being part of a group. It almost HAS to be that considering what they now know to have happened

PennyQuilts
03-16-2014, 12:57 AM
My money is on the pilot being part of a group. It almost HAS to be that considering what they now know to have happened

The younger pilot. Makes me wonder what sort of cargo was on the plane and/or who might have been a passenger. If they just wanted a plane, why not a freighter?

SoonerDave
03-16-2014, 07:34 AM
The younger pilot. Makes me wonder what sort of cargo was on the plane and/or who might have been a passenger. If they just wanted a plane, why not a freighter?

Could be nothing more than a matter of convenience. That is, individuals with obvious, ready access to vital internal systems, advanced training, access to nearly any aspect of the host airport in a region where security is likely not nearly as intensely scrutinized as it (supposedly) is here. Sure, a freighter might have been more ideal, but in terms of practicality for whatever the purposes at hand might be or have been, they took what was handy.

The broader thing that concerns me is to see if other activity seemingly unrelated to this aircraft incident is going on around the world. Things that might not trigger curiosity otherwise, but taken in tandem with this incident, might be of much greater concern. Is something extremely well orchestrated and planned underway, and this was merely one tentacle? Maybe a reach, but I have to think the general intelligence community is scrambling behind the scenes in this respect at least to some degree.

tomokc
03-16-2014, 08:39 AM
The FDR & CVR will be found one day, perhaps many years from now as with the AF447 crash. If MH370 continued in level flight along a direct course until fuel was exhausted, it is likely that all on the flight deck were incapacitated or dead, and those in the passenger cabin were unable to gain access or also dead.

The CVR will save the last two hours of audio. The overhead microphones on the flight deck will pick up sounds of anyone there and anyone trying to gain entry. The FDR will save 24 hours of data, and in addition to showing aircraft performance (speed, altitude, heading) it will show human inputs (control column, engine power, flaps, landing gear, lights, transponder, circuit breakers being pulled, etc.

The search continues, but not assisted by the Malaysian government which has declined multiple offers by Interpol and the FBI, so those resources continue on their own. If there is any meaningful coordination it is being provided by the US government via the NTSB, and involves everything that Boeing, Rolls Royce and the avionics manufacturers can offer. Just because the Malaysian government can't find its *** with both hands doesn't mean that others aren't trying. I take confidence in that.

PennyQuilts
03-16-2014, 11:35 AM
Jeeze - they are just now reporting the senior pilot (the aviation expert) was a political fanatic supporting the government opposition leader. He attended the guy's trial several hours before the flight and the man was convicted of homosexuality and sentenced to five years. It was widely believed by the opposition to be trumped up charges. The captain's family moved out the day before the plane vanished AND the captain spoke to air traffic almost an hour after the transponder or data of some sort (can't recall) was switched off. No hint of a problem. And it took this long to come up with this?

kevinpate
03-16-2014, 01:17 PM
When you are going to assign blame to someone, it is best to first get a story down pat before going public with it. Not doing so is how some otherwise decent tales fall flat.

catch22
03-16-2014, 03:10 PM
Here is a very well reasoned post and synopsis of what we know. It is somewhat technical.

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 — Civil Aviation Forum | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6027228/#4)

PennyQuilts
03-16-2014, 06:06 PM
When you are going to assign blame to someone, it is best to first get a story down pat before going public with it. Not doing so is how some otherwise decent tales fall flat.

If you mean me, I didn't assign blame by bringing up something they should have known the second day. Husband is an accident investigator - immediately looking into the pilot and crew after an accident or event is standard and that doesn't mean they assign blame - probable cause is something they figure out after they gather all the facts. To have not gotten around to investigating the pilot and crew until now is ludicrous, particularly in a case like this.

kevinpate
03-16-2014, 06:11 PM
No PQ, you were not whom I meant. I was merely commenting (snarking?) on how this slow release of the pilot info may have come about from those who ultimately released it. I may also be providing them too much credit overall in suggesting it was a planned slow-play.

PennyQuilts
03-16-2014, 06:15 PM
No PQ, you were not whom I meant. I was merely commenting (snarking?) on how this slow release of the pilot info may have come about from those who ultimately released it. I may also be providing them too much credit overall in suggesting it was a planned slow-play.

That they took this long to get around to discussing the pilots and crew just makes my husband shake his head and shrug - "It's Malaysia." In the states, an army of FBI agents would have descended on the crews' doorsteps within hours. He does civilian (noncriminal) investigation but dealt with FBI during the TWA 800 crash because it was up in the air whether it was an accident or deliberate.

PennyQuilts
03-16-2014, 06:31 PM
Here is a very well reasoned post and synopsis of what we know. It is somewhat technical.

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 — Civil Aviation Forum | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6027228/#4)

Very interesting - thanks for sending that. My husband has tried explaining a lot of that sort of stuff to me and after all these years, I can follow what he is saying pretty well, but it was much easier READING about it. Again, appreciate it.

tomokc
03-16-2014, 08:49 PM
Jeeze - they are just now reporting the senior pilot (the aviation expert) was a political fanatic supporting the government opposition leader. He attended the guy's trial several hours before the flight and the man was convicted of homosexuality and sentenced to five years. It was widely believed by the opposition to be trumped up charges. The captain's family moved out the day before the plane vanished AND the captain spoke to air traffic almost an hour after the transponder or data of some sort (can't recall) was switched off. No hint of a problem. And it took this long to come up with this?

Who is reporting this? I'd like to know the source. Can you post a link because I'm not finding those allegations.

tomokc
03-17-2014, 07:32 AM
It appears that the Malaysian government is throwing the captain under the bus, the one referred to by PQ as "the senior pilot (the aviation expert)."

The Malaysian government is run on patronage, and those at the top get there by defending the ruling party, not by competence. This is obvious when watching the investigation which repeatedly showed that competence hardly exists in Malaysia. The press is state-controlled.

MH370's captain was Zaharie Ahmad Shah, 53, a pilot with 18,365 flight hours who has flown for Malaysia Airlines since 1981. It is believed the he was a political supporter of the Malaysian opposition leader, Anwar Imbrahim, who days before the crash was jailed on rarely-used charges of sodomy. Any opponents to the current rulers run the same risk. With evidence now leading investigators to suspect that someone with intricate knowledge of B777 systems, the focus is on the captain and first officer, and with the captain known to be a supporter of Ibrahim, he's being thrown under the bus.

About the Malaysian government in this investigation. They have proven incompetence at all levels, issuing statements one day and retracting them the next, identifying a likely crash site one day, and then pointing to another the next. The civilian and military aviation authorities are contradicting each other. The government has refused repeated offers of assistance by other governments, Interpol, the FBI, Boeing and Rolls Royce. China is openly criticizing their handling of this investigation. What would you expect such a government to do? Find someone who could be a suspect, link him to the political opposition, and then build evidence that convicts him. The investigation is now less about finding the cause, and more about tarring the opposition.

So what about Captain Shah and First Officer Fariq Ab Hamid, 27, a Malaysian Airlines pilot since 2007? The evidence we have points increasingly towards them, and if guilty, it wouldn't be the first time that a pilot (captain or first officer) crashed an airliner. The information provided by the Malaysian government creates this timeline on March 8:
12:41 local time - MH370 takes off
1:09 ACARS stops sending data.
1:21 Transponders stop operating.
1:30 MH370 is handed off to another ATC sector and the last radio communication is received, "All right. Good night."
2:15 Military radar receives last primary contact of MH370 over the Malacca Strait headed towards the Andaman Sea.
8:11 Final satellite ping received.

Again, we're dependent upon the Malaysian government because they are primarily responsible for conducting the investigation (the flight's point of origin was their country). They're not competent and they have a political agenda, so anything coming from them is naturally suspect. So if you believe the timeline provided by them, then it appears that someone on the flight deck intentionally disabled communications systems and seized control of the aircraft. The Malaysian government has also alleged the the flight flew as high as 45,000 feet (about 2,000 feet above it's service ceiling) before descending below 30,000, and leveling at 35,000 for the remainder of the flight, but I haven't seen a timeline for that, and wouldn't accept it without independent verification.

What do we know? We know that a flight is overdue, and nothing else. The balance of what we have been provided comes from a corrupt and incompetent government. Independent information is virtually non-existent. I'll be the first to blame the flight crew when evidence is presented, but not by the Malaysian government after it found a picture of him wearing a t-shirt that criticizes it.

Easy180
03-17-2014, 11:30 AM
If it was the pilot or pilots would they possibly have climbed so high to ensure all passengers were dead before they cruised around to their destination?

SoonerDave
03-17-2014, 12:34 PM
If it was the pilot or pilots would they possibly have climbed so high to ensure all passengers were dead before they cruised around to their destination?

I think that's one of the many theories out there right now, horrific as it may be.

I can't even fathom the kind and magnitude of unbridled, unconscionable evil that would conceive of such a plan. I mean, yeah, I guess I can, but I can't. Or maybe I just don't want to.

Just the facts
03-17-2014, 12:43 PM
If it was the pilot or pilots would they possibly have climbed so high to ensure all passengers were dead before they cruised around to their destination?

Kind of makes you rethink that whole 'secure the cockpit door' strategy doesn't it. We used to need to protect the pilots from the passengers, but how do we protect the passengers from the pilots?

tomokc
03-17-2014, 01:56 PM
We have nothing to indicate that the flight crew intentionally did this, and much to show that the blame originates from the Malaysian government.

The Malaysian government has proven that it is incapable of performing a competent investigation, and that it has tarred Captain Shah as a supporter of the opposition leader it just jailed (which doesn't make a conspiracy). With reversals issued by the Malaysian aviation authorities every day, their incompetence has become abundantly clear, and they're not allowing investigators from other countries to participate in this investigation.

What do we know based upon the best available information? The plane appears to have flown to the point of fuel exhaustion along the southwestern of two possible arcs (the northwestern route puts it over too many heavily-monitored and -defended borders). It appears that no-one was at the controls, either one of the pilots or a passenger/cabin crewmember. And it appears that radios were not functioning. That's really all we have, and I can defend each of these arguments, and the presence of a very, very small area at the intersection of the three.

I caution everyone to be skeptical of those who present theories in order to sell books, gain Web site hits, see everything as a conspiracy or "false flag" event, defend incompetence or blame others.

jn1780
03-17-2014, 03:59 PM
We have nothing to indicate that the flight crew intentionally did this, and much to show that the blame originates from the Malaysian government.

The Malaysian government has proven that it is incapable of performing a competent investigation, and that it has tarred Captain Shah as a supporter of the opposition leader it just jailed (which doesn't make a conspiracy). With reversals issued by the Malaysian aviation authorities every day, their incompetence has become abundantly clear, and they're not allowing investigators from other countries to participate in this investigation.

What do we know based upon the best available information? The plane appears to have flown to the point of fuel exhaustion along the southwestern of two possible arcs (the northwestern route puts it over too many heavily-monitored and -defended borders). It appears that no-one was at the controls, either one of the pilots or a passenger/cabin crewmember. And it appears that radios were not functioning. That's really all we have, and I can defend each of these arguments, and the presence of a very, very small area at the intersection of the three.

I caution everyone to be skeptical of those who present theories in order to sell books, gain Web site hits, see everything as a conspiracy or "false flag" event, defend incompetence or blame others.


That's true. Malaysian authorities can't be trusted. But, US officials have presented this "Theory" also and felt strongly enough about it to comment a navy ship to look in the Indian ocean. Its sounds to me like other nations pressuring Malaysian investigators to look deeper into other theories.

Also, someone would have had to turn the plane then turn autopilot on. If autopilot was on before hand the plane would have kept going towards its destination. Likewise, if it was never on the plane would have immediately crashed if the pilots loss consciousness. It is also possible though that all of the radar evidence is wrong.



I caution everyone to be skeptical of those who present theories in order to sell books, gain Web site hits, see everything as a conspiracy or "false flag" event, defend incompetence or blame others.

Isn't saying that Malaysian authorities are lying about the pilots turning off the transponders before their last communication and the plane following navigational waypoints a conspiracy theory? Just saying..... You could be right though. lol

tomokc
03-17-2014, 05:12 PM
My primary theory is that a localized breach of some kind affected the hull on or near the flight deck, depressurizing the aircraft, disabling most of the avionics and causing the flight crew to fight for control of the aircraft (this explains the strong deviation from original course, and the climbs, descents and eventual leveling of the aircraft in the flight levels). Instead of immediately donning supplemental oxygen the captain & first officer first fought for control with no visual cues - it was a moonless night (it hadn't risen yet - I checked), they were over horizonless open water, and had either a partial panel of instruments or smoke in the cockpit. They were quickly unconscious (if not dead) and locked in the cockpit. If there was a fire it quickly went out (it consumed all available fuel, or was extinguished by a crewmember or automatic system).

Uninjured cabin crewmembers reached for their portable oxygen bottles, instructed passengers in use of their masks, and tried unsuccessfully to contact the pilots via interphone. Breaching the locked cockpit door was impossible. The cabin crewmembers succumbed to lack of oxygen as the supply in their bottles was exhausted after a few minutes, and passengers also succumbed when their chemical oxygen generators stop functioning. Passenger attempts to send text messages or emails were unsuccessful because they were over the Gulf of Thailand and beyond range of cell towers.

The aircraft is now not on autopilot, but maintaining a relatively constant course to the southwest (as tracked by Inmarsat) while gently oscillating up and down through the flight levels due to the basic aerodynamic stability of the B777 airframe and constant thrust of the engines (I'm told that the B777 airframe is very stable), until fuel was exhausted far over the Indian Ocean. Like the Learjet carrying golfer Payne Stewart that eventually crashed near Mina, SD, the B777 began its unpowered, oscillating descent into the ocean.

tomokc
03-17-2014, 05:15 PM
Isn't saying that Malaysian authorities are lying about the pilots turning off the transponders before their last communication and the plane following navigational waypoints a conspiracy theory? Just saying..... You could be right though. lol

The Malaysians are saying that the transponder went off AFTER the last radio communication ("All right. Good night."). This was after the last received ACARS message, but before the next scheduled message to be automatically sent from the plane, placing the time that it went off at about the same time.

My theory has this happening after the last verbal communication from the crew.

FritterGirl
03-18-2014, 12:09 PM
Interesting theory here that in simplest terms, makes pretty good sense. A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com (http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/)

SoonerDave
03-18-2014, 01:11 PM
Interesting theory here that in simplest terms, makes pretty good sense. A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com (http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/)

That's got to be the most rational theoretical exposition of the situation I've read so far. It won't sell a lot of newspapers, but man, it sure pegs the common sense meter. Fascinating read for its elegance and simplicity.

Just the facts
03-18-2014, 01:39 PM
Its pretty neat to read theories from people who don't even have access to the information the incompetent Malaysian authorities have access to.

How does a fire and emergency response by the pilots explain this?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?_r=0


WASHINGTON — The first turn to the west that diverted the missing Malaysia Airlines plane from its planned flight path from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing was carried out through a computer system that was most likely programmed by someone in the plane’s cockpit who was knowledgeable about airplane systems, according to senior American officials.

Instead of manually operating the plane’s controls, whoever altered Flight 370’s path typed seven or eight keystrokes into a computer on a knee-high pedestal between the captain and the first officer, according to officials. The Flight Management System, as the computer is known, directs the plane from point to point specified in the flight plan submitted before a flight. It is not clear whether the plane’s path was reprogrammed before or after it took off.

OKCTalker
03-18-2014, 03:03 PM
The Wired.com theory has four flaws:

1) There are heat sensors in the wheelwells, and they would have alerted the pilots before the fire reached the avionics bay and started tripping breakers.
2) When smoke is detected in the cockpit, pilots immediately don oxygen masks.
3) When a fire is detected anywhere, pilots immediately descend and land at the nearest available airport (they don't climb, hoping that "thin air" extinguishes the fire).
4) There was no report of a blown tire, nor tire debris located on the runway, disproving this entire theory. Otherwise, much of the article is informative.

To illustrate the danger of an onboard fire, and importance of getting on the ground quickly, here is the 324-page report of the 2010 UPS 747 freighter crash in Dubia, caused by a lithium battery fire. Four minutes after the first alarm, aircraft pitch control is compromised. At nine minutes the captain is incapacitated (the autopsy revealed that he lost consciousness due to toxic poisoning). At 28 minutes the aircraft crashed. The relevant portion begins on page 23: http://www.gcaa.gov.ae/en/ePublication/admin/iradmin/Lists/Incidents%20Investigation%20Reports/Attachments/40/2010-2010%20-%20Final%20Report%20-%20Boeing%20747-44AF%20-%20N571UP%20-%20Report%2013%202010.pdf

stick47
03-18-2014, 03:51 PM
The Navy is turning back the USS Kidd. I think they know where the plane is and FYI, Thailand had a rogue plane on radar in their airspace at the right time that it could have been 370. The U-Turn was pre-programmed into the flight computer auto pilot. I believe the plane was hijacked by one of the flight crew and the ascension to 45K feet was done in order to depressurize the cabin & neutralize the passengers. I think the plane landed at a base in the middle East and the reason terrorists aren't boasting about pulling this off is b/c they aren't finished with their terrorist act. Pray for Israel and the US.

SoonerDave
03-18-2014, 08:30 PM
As soon as I can re-snag the link I'll post it, but there was some stir earlier this evening over a photo find of an aircraft presumably flying over jungle-like terrain near an area where some farmers had reported seeing a low-flying aircraft near the time of the MH370 disappearance. Maybe nothing, maybe a complete red herring, maybe indication the plane was en route to a specific destination.

EDIT: This isn't the original link I found, but believe it to be the same base info: Hyderabad techie uploads satellite image of missing plane on CNN site - The Hindu (http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Hyderabad/hyderabad-techie-uploads-satellite-image-of-missing-plane-on-cnn-site/article5801884.ece)

Just the facts
03-18-2014, 08:37 PM
The Navy is turning back the USS Kidd. I think they know where the plane is and FYI, Thailand had a rogue plane on radar in their airspace at the right time that it could have been 370. The U-Turn was pre-programmed into the flight computer auto pilot. I believe the plane was hijacked by one of the flight crew and the ascension to 45K feet was done in order to depressurize the cabin & neutralize the passengers. I think the plane landed at a base in the middle East and the reason terrorists aren't boasting about pulling this off is b/c they aren't finished with their terrorist act. Pray for Israel and the US.

I think this is what happened also. Expect a new push to put some kind of navigation beacon and power source on aircraft that is not accessible and can't be turned off while the plane is in the air.

Easy180
03-18-2014, 08:49 PM
The Navy is turning back the USS Kidd. I think they know where the plane is and FYI, Thailand had a rogue plane on radar in their airspace at the right time that it could have been 370. The U-Turn was pre-programmed into the flight computer auto pilot. I believe the plane was hijacked by one of the flight crew and the ascension to 45K feet was done in order to depressurize the cabin & neutralize the passengers. I think the plane landed at a base in the middle East and the reason terrorists aren't boasting about pulling this off is b/c they aren't finished with their terrorist act. Pray for Israel and the US.

This seems unlikely since the plane is almost the length of a football field. Thinking one of the neighboring countries would have picked it up when it came in to land.

tomokc
03-19-2014, 07:24 AM
I believe the plane was hijacked by one of the flight crew and the ascension to 45K feet was done in order to depressurize the cabin & neutralize the passengers.

Pilots control pressurization settings from the cockpit. They can dump at any time, and anything above 12-14,000 would be effective. FAA regulations require that supplemental oxygen be available crew & passengers in that range.

I know pilot parents who have flown high in order to "knock out" their kids - it simply puts them to sleep. I have also heard of charter pilots doing this when unruly passengers won't behave in an instance like Justin Bieber's recent charter flight.

A climb to 45,000 feet (if true - the source is the Malaysian government) indicates that the aircraft was briefly out of control, that's all. No pilot would intentionally fly it there, and no rookie hijacker (think 9/11) would want to.

tomokc
03-19-2014, 07:31 AM
As soon as I can re-snag the link I'll post it, but there was some stir earlier this evening over a photo find of an aircraft presumably flying over jungle-like terrain near an area where some farmers had reported seeing a low-flying aircraft near the time of the MH370 disappearance. Maybe nothing, maybe a complete red herring, maybe indication the plane was en route to a specific destination.

EDIT: This isn't the original link I found, but believe it to be the same base info: Hyderabad techie uploads satellite image of missing plane on CNN site - The Hindu (http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Hyderabad/hyderabad-techie-uploads-satellite-image-of-missing-plane-on-cnn-site/article5801884.ece)

This is meaningless. If you want to see images of airplanes in flight, simply watch this YouTube video: Google Earth - Planes In Flight - YouTube (http://youtu.be/yDyBwcdy5KA)

tomokc
03-19-2014, 07:38 AM
As soon as I can re-snag the link I'll post it, but there was some stir earlier this evening over a photo find of an aircraft presumably flying over jungle-like terrain near an area where some farmers had reported seeing a low-flying aircraft near the time of the MH370 disappearance. Maybe nothing, maybe a complete red herring, maybe indication the plane was en route to a specific destination.

This was reported to have been over the southern tip of the Maldives, unfortunately beyond the range of MH370.

SoonerDave
03-19-2014, 07:46 AM
This was reported to have been over the southern tip of the Maldives, unfortunately beyond the range of MH370.

Ahh, fair enough.

stick47
03-19-2014, 09:26 AM
This was reported to have been over the southern tip of the Maldives, unfortunately beyond the range of MH370.

You're telling us that a Boeing 777 can't fly 2,000 miles? That would make their New York to London flights pretty interesting then. Actual range of a 777 200 is 5,200 miles.