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Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Blizzard Watch | Blizzard Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Winter Storm Warning | Ice Storm Warning | Red Flag Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Wind Chill Advisory | Wind Chill Warning | Freezing Rain Advisory | Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe T-Storm Warning | Severe T-Storm Watch
Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif

Severe Weather Outlooks

Day 1 OutlookDay 2 OutlookDay 3 OutlookDays 4 - 8 Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif
Snowfall Forecast Models

GEM Snowfall12Z/0Z NAM SnowfallWRF Snowfall12Z / 0Z GFS Snowfallhttp://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gifhttp://www.grib2.com/wrf/S-PLAINS_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gifhttp://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif

Freezing Rain Forecast Models

GEM Freezing Rain12Z/0Z NAM Freezing Rain12Z / 0Z GFS Freezing Rainhttp://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_144HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gifhttp://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_144HR.gif
Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time.

NAM completely shredding this storm. Gives some decent wrap around snow in NW OK.

I honestly have no idea what this storm will do still.

ADVISORY COVERS THE ENTIRE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO:

Winter Weather Advisory Winter Weather Advisory
Updated: Sat Mar-01-14 02:59am CST
Effective: Sat Mar-01-14 02:59am CST
Expires: Sun Mar-02-14 09:00pm CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Harper; Hughes; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Was hita; Woods; Woodward

Instructions: Be careful if you have to travel. Even small amounts of ice and snow can make roads and sidewalks slick and dangerous.

Message summary: ...winter weather advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to 9 pm cst sunday...
The national weather service in norman has issued a winter weather advisory for a mix of freezing rain... Sleet and snow...which is in effect from 6 pm this evening to 9 pm cst sunday.
* timing: areas of light freezing rain are expected to develop late today and this evening across northern oklahoma and then develop south late tonight and sunday morning. Across central and northern oklahoma a transition to sleet is expected during the day on sunday then snow before ending sunday evening.
* main impact: mainly light accumulations of freezing rain...

Sleet and snow are expected across much of oklahoma and western north texas. However... A few locations could see as much as a tenth of an inch of ice. In addition... Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible across far northern oklahoma. This wintry precipitation will likely result in slick and hazardous driving conditions across the area.
* other impacts: along with the wintry precipitation... Gusty north winds will create wind chills below zero during the day on sunday.

FWIW ground temps are in the mid 40's

Not sure if I heard this right on News9 just a few minutes ago...Detroit has had 68 days straight of below freezing temps?????

Watch, this will be the storm that dumps on us. I think everyone has tired head (including myself) from previous forecasts not panning out, that they're not really considering this one to be anything.

So the Uncertainty Factortm for this storm suggests what....that we go out and buy just the bread, or just the milk?

:D

So the Uncertainty Factortm for this storm suggests what....that we go out and buy just the bread, or just the milk?

:D

I just came back from McD's...stocked up on Sausage Biscuits!

I just came back from McD's...stocked up on Sausage Biscuits!
Hope you stocked up on toilet paper too.

Hope you stocked up on toilet paper too.

Got a biggggggggggggggg stack of old Oklahoman newspapers. I'm good to go!

I just came back from McD's...stocked up on Sausage Biscuits!

I think you just became my new best friend.

I would like to thank the 12Z NAM for throwing another wrench into this deal.

Through 3PM tomorrow precip amounts look mostly light except for SE OK and W OK where some heavier amounts may be found. So looks like for us Freezing Drizzle or Light Frz Rain appear to be on tap. NAM then has a strong area of wrap around precip move over from the west, with an area of heavy precip from Norman back to Lawton - 0.35" to 0.5". The profile is very borderline on either a sleet/snow mix to all snow, as portrayed in this forecast sounding:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_NAM_036_35.1,-97.43_skewt_ML.gif

As we move into the evening, the precip should transition mostly to snow with some sleet mixture. The heavy band of precip will run from Shawnee up through the Tulsa area, where Tulsa should be mostly snow and could see 3-6" if this pans out. Things begin to shut down fast from midnight to 3AM.

Total precip looks moderate across the I-44 area ranging from 0.5 to 0.9" through that area...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_042.gif

NAM snowfall output can be seen in the article post of this thread but ranges from 3-5" west of I-35 then from 5 to 8" east of I-35 up along I-44. A sharp cut off south of Purcell where little snow will accumulate.

12Z GFS maintains the story it has been telling for a few runs now. Mostly a light precip event with some wrap around snow mainly in NW and NC OK. So much for model agreement today.

Yup. GFS sticking to snow KS and sleet ice E/NE OK.

NAM putting decent wrap around over W-C-NE OK. Bullseye near Tulsa with 5-6 inches.

So for us that don't follow this weather thing too much, what does it look like for us in the Quail Springs/Edmond area? How much snow/sleet/drizzle?

Thanks for doing this guys.

So for us that don't follow this weather thing too much, what does it look like for us in the Quail Springs/Edmond area? How much snow/sleet/drizzle?

Thanks for doing this guys.

First welcome to the weather threads. I would refer you back a couple posts to the forecast maps and the general discussion therein. As those that have followed these threads over the years know that forecasting specific amounts for such a pinpoint area comes with a high degree of inaccuracy. People love asking the local TV weather guys about their street corner, but in reality everything just has be done with a broad stroke over an area. Only in situations where things appear to have a very tight gradient of precip will we (or at least I) start to get pretty nit picky.

So with that, there two model solutions are out there. I'll take a glance at Euro in a second. Take away from the amounts given, but don't expect it to get any more specific than that. It just isn't realistic.

12Z Euro is pretty much in agreement with GFS. So hopefully we see some adjustments to the later runs today to get some better agreement.

Apparently "Winter Storm Titan" has caused some flooding in Southern California!

You can play around with the experimental NWS nation wide 6 hour forecast maps for 8 different forecast types at Welcome to Stillwater Weather - Home of Oklahoma State University - NWS MDL US Forecast Charts (http://stillwaterweather.com/wx/wxmdlgmos-2hk-192h.php) Mouse over a time to display the mapped chart.

18z models starting to tend slightly with the NAM solution from earlier. We'll see what the next batch does.

Venture - apologize for the stupid mode on my part - but I was trying to get timing on when this (might?) start to affect central OK, if at all?

The heaviest looks to be after 3pm.

The heaviest looks to be after 3pm.

So we're not even looking at anything of much consequence tonight? Good stuff.

Hate to admit it but it's still 70 here. Grilled out and ate on the patio. That's going to change tomorrow though.

I don't care. I'm going out tonight.

Arctic temps are moving into the NW/NC parts of OK, and radar is starting to show light precip echoes along/NE of the Red River that might head toward central OK over the next few hours...I'm sure Venture and/or Anon will clarify this, but the precip hitting the inbound cold air will almost certainly freeze. Good thing surface temps are probably still warm enough to prevent immediate icing, but be careful out there!!!!

By 11:30 we were iced over in far SW OKC. I let the dogs out and one fell on the slick patio. The grass is stiff and frozen.

The Kilpatrick wasa LIL slick on my way home but I made it back just fine. Not saying tomorrow morning won't be trecherous.

Sent from my BNTV600 using Tapatalk

This should be a fun drive home in an hour.

I just drove from tinker area to Norman. Roads are EXTREMELY slick, especially in OKC. The concrete roads are not as bad, but asphalt/blacktop roads are pure death. Wish I was exaggerating. Saw an idiot spin out and crash up over the curb at 89th and Sooner. If you are out tonight, BE CAREFUL. (If you're out drinking, don't even try to drive. Just remember to put the keys in the trunk on case you sleep in your car so you don't get in trouble!!).

STAY SAFE!!!

I actually drove back from Dallas and got home around 11:30, thinking I would miss the worst part of the storm by traveling tonight instead of tomorrow. And the roads were already pretty bad. I-35 started turning slick just north of Purcell but was pretty much an ice rink right around Norman. The bridges and curves are deceptively slick despite appearing dry and I saw two pretty bad rollovers in Moore. I definitely was having a "pucker" moment driving my rear wheel drive sports car with summer tires over some extremely icy bridges on the Ft. Smith Junction, made worse by all the idiots who felt the need to tailgate me. Best advice: just stay home and warm.

I actually drove back from Dallas and got home around 11:30, thinking I would miss the worst part of the storm by traveling tonight instead of tomorrow. And the roads were already pretty bad. I-35 started turning slick just north of Purcell but was pretty much an ice rink right around Norman. The bridges and curves are deceptively slick despite appearing dry and I saw two pretty bad rollovers in Moore. I definitely was having a "pucker" moment driving my rear wheel drive sports car with summer tires over some extremely icy bridges on the Ft. Smith Junction, made worse by all the idiots who felt the need to tailgate me. Best advice: just stay home and warm.

If it makes you feel better the guy I saw crash was tailgating me (in my RWD sports car) with his lights off, so I honked at him and flashed my lights as he sped past. Then I saw him crashed a 1/4 mile later. Idiot.

If it makes you feel better the guy I saw crash was tailgating me (in my RWD sports car) with his lights off, so I honked at him and flashed my lights as he sped past. Then I saw him crashed a 1/4 mile later. Idiot.

Some people are just complete tools out there. I maintained roughly 30-35 the entire way home tonight. Of course you have the manly men in their big trucks doing 50+ still and then cocky boys in their little coupes trying to keep up. Had a couple go by me on I-35 in S OKC doing probably 55-60 easily. I saw both of them face first into the median in front of the Warren. I bet I got home before they did tonight, and I probably lived further away. :)

If it makes you feel better the guy I saw crash was tailgating me (in my RWD sports car) with his lights off, so I honked at him and flashed my lights as he sped past. Then I saw him crashed a 1/4 mile later. Idiot.

LOL...serves him right. I never understood why people feel the need to NOT have their headlights on in these conditions. That is something that happens more often than not here.

Bad out there. I'm glad I didn't know you guys were in it.

Conditions are going to start getting increasing worse across the metro as heavier precip and possible storms move up from SW OK into the Metro. Radar also indicating some hail or heavy sleet out by the Holdenville area. There has been a mPING report of pea sized hail our near Altus.



http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/mar14/2-1.png

Venture, that report just made me colder. And I'm snug as a bug in my house :)

HRRR Projected snowfall amounts - keep in mind these are going to vary with sleet/graupel/hail mixing in.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014030214/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

This is definitely one of the coolest events I can remember. This is the morning sounding from Norman, and we are getting SNOW with it:

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1/1964979_10152326860492323_1881633238_n.jpg

The snow is actually forming in the boundary layer beneath the warm air, and we now have strong thunderstorms forming aloft in the elevated instability that then have their rain freeze in the cold layer. There was even a severe t-storm warning out in MO for quarter-sized hail and copious amounts of sleet. This is pretty wild.

The nice fluffy snow flakes just vanished in SE Norman and it is mostly sleet now. All of this is moving NE right now so conditions are going to get pretty terrible.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/mar14/2-2.png

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#OUN extends area of Winter Storm Warning for Dewey, Garfield, Major [OK] till 12:00 AM CST

Can't believe that we can get anything but snow at 12 degrees. Crazy storm.

Thundering here in Central OKC now with sleet. Pretty nuts!

THUNDERSLEET! Far SW OKC. And, whoa - Lightning!!'

Half inch hail reported new Newcastle earlier, quarters in Altus. Strong storm getting ready to move into Lawton.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/mar14/2-3.png

Latest NAM creams central OK.

This is looking like major bust up north in KS where originally there were forecasts of 8-10 inches around C to NE KS and into MO.

Looking at the radar trends in NW TX and SW/C OK. The wrap around convection is connecting to the bands of thundersleet and snow that are ongoing. A lot of development down towards Chilldress to Lubbock to Amarillo. This will all swing around and up into W OK into C and N OK.

Barons and Thunder with home games today, might be looking at record low crowds

This is just crazy, really coming down

Changing over to mostly snow now in N OKC.

Storm southeast of Lawton moving NE with small hail.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/mar14/2-4.png

HRRR indicates precip should end for the metro around 9 or 10 this evening. Wrap around does appear that it will come over Central OK, so amounts will go up for the snow at the end...think 2-3 inches at most.

It is super ugly, outside and the birds are blowing sideways. I saw two going backwards. Thick Sleet coming in hard from the north at about a 60 degree angle.

Lightning is just crazy now in Norman.

How it looks in Stillwater at OSU where light mixed frozen precip has been falling as of 1:30PM.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/snapshot.jpg

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

Kinda surprised Winter Storm Warnings haven't been extended further south.

I was just about to post the same. This is worse than any of those storms that had the WSW 3-4 weeks ago.

Just saying...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/mar14/2-5.png

just saying...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/mar14/2-5.png

snownado?

The NROT values in that scan actually got to the point that would normally signify strong low level rotation, but went away the next scan.