February 2014 has ended. Discussion continues in the March 2014 Thread: http://www.okctalk.com/showwiki.php?title=Island:36945

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Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Blizzard Watch | Blizzard Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Winter Storm Warning | Ice Storm Warning | Red Flag Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Wind Chill Advisory | Wind Chill Warning | Freezing Rain Advisory | Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe T-Storm Warning | Severe T-Storm Watch
Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif



Snowfall Forecast Models

GEM Snowfall12Z/0Z NAM SnowfallWRF Snowfall12Z / 0Z GFS Snowfallhttp://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gifhttp://www.grib2.com/wrf/S-PLAINS_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gifhttp://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif

Freezing Rain Forecast Models

GEM Freezing Rain12Z/0Z NAM Freezing Rain12Z / 0Z GFS Freezing Rainhttp://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_144HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gifhttp://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_144HR.gif
Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time.

ECMWF Overview...

Sunday: No major changes in the Euro forecast. Main area of accumulating precip appears to be south of I-40. Looks like a dusting/less than an inch north of I-40, about 1-2" south to a Lawton-Ada line, then maybe 2-4" just south of there in spots.

Tuesday: Looks like NW OK and NC OK will get the heaviest snow. As Anon has said, Central may get dry slotted some or at least amounts kept well in check. Probably still looking at 1-3" for the Metro, lighter south. Area of 4-6" up between Woodward to Enid.

Thursday: Light snow over much of SW, C, and NE OK. About an inch.

Friday: Light/Mdt Snow. Another 1-3" for the metro.

That looks doable. The car washes will rake in the dough the week after next

Winter Storm Watch for Southern OK tonight through tomorrow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
418 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014


OKZ032-036>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011815-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.A.0001.140202T0000Z-140203T0000Z/
HUGHES-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-
COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-
HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLDENVILLE...ALTUS...FREDERICK...
LAWTON...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...
WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA.. .MARIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL.. .VERNON...
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
418 AM CST SAT FEB 1 2014


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.


* TIMING: TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 3 PM.


* MAIN IMPACT: A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL END WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.25 INCH ARE
ALSO LIKELY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A WICHITA FALLS TO ADA LINE.


* OTHER IMPACTS: SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Latest GFS runs bringing Sunday's system further north. Or at least developing a decent snow band somewhere over SW to C OK. Including the OKC area.

Latest NAM also has north trend.



I will say that Tuesday is looking interesting on GFS. Trying to close off the low more and possibly let more snow in the picture for main body of OK instead of massive dry slot. Will watch the trends.

Winter Storm Warnings are up now for the southern counties...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
126 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014


OKZ032-036>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020330-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0001.140202T0000Z-140203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0001.140202T0300Z-140203T0000Z/
HUGHES-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-
COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-
HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLDENVILLE...ALTUS...FREDERICK...
LAWTON...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...
WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA.. .MARIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL.. .VERNON...
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
126 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...


THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* TIMING: TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 3 PM.


* MAIN IMPACT: A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL END WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.25 INCH ARE
ALSO LIKELY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A WICHITA FALLS TO ADA LINE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND DURANT AND ATOKA MAY EXCEED 0.25 INCH
SUNDAY AND NECESSITATE A FURTHER WARNING.


* OTHER IMPACTS: SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL.

18Z NAM and HRRR now both pushing heavy snowfall rates into Central OK tomorrow. Would not be surprised to see OUN put out some advisory text shortly for those counties.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/t1/1606977_10102022304287887_1353055602_n.jpg

So the 12PM-3PM segment is the one that has me a little concern now...

All snow, or should be...with a basic 10:1 ratio...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/feb14/snowfall-1.png

The image is also a pretty good indication of how narrow the snow band will probably be tomorrow. Also how much the effects on the Metro will vary widely from end to end. From that image along, that is an inch or two from Yukon to Edmond and nearly 8 inches in Norman.

18Z NAM and HRRR now both pushing heavy snowfall rates into Central OK tomorrow. Would not be surprised to see OUN put out some advisory text shortly for those counties.



what is the color legend saying ? 1/10 of an inch? confused;)

what is the color legend saying ? 1/10 of an inch? confused;)

My bad. The legend is liquid precip...so take the number and multiple it by 10 to get a basic snowfall amount.

Let's hope the 6-8 stays just south of Norman. Cool with 2-4 as long as it's the white stuff

Well there's certainly a decent jet stream up there. Just went from DFW to Atlanta in 1 hour.

Classic. Models say one thing for 4 days straight, 16 hours away from event and they all change.

18Z GFS not completely in line with NAM. 1-2" for Metro area by 6AM, 6AM to 9AM another 1-3" South Metro, <1" North Metro, then lighter snow with maybe another 1" for the south Metro through 3PM.

So recap of the various model runs for the Metro max snowfall predictions as of right now, with the understand higher is going to be Norman area and south.
06Z GFS: 1-4" (highest on this run was actually W Metro)
12Z GFS: 2-3"
18Z GFS: 3-6"
12Z NAM: 1-2"
18Z NAM: 5-8", up to 10" further SW.
12Z GEM: 2-4"
12Z WRF: ~1"
00Z ECMWF: 1-2"
12Z ECMWF: 2-4"

The afternoon runs are in bold.

Oh...and Braums is running out of milk on the east side here in Norman. So the run is on. ;)

Winter Wx Advisory up for counties north of the Warning area...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
507 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014


OKZ021>031-033>035-020715-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0004.140202T0300Z-140203T0000Z/
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...
YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...S EMINOLE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART
507 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST SUNDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY.


* TIMING: SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO START OVER FAR WEST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 3 AM AND 3 PM.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...MAINLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
SLEET CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

WWA now up for the metro for 1-3".

Latest HRRR is pretty intense, with a very narrow band exceeding 12" in SW OK already by 5AM. Hm.

Working this evening, what time should we expect any falling precipitation to begin?

Oh...and Braums is running out of milk on the east side here in Norman. So the run is on. ;)

Got the bread covered but need milk. Now.

Working this evening, what time should we expect any falling precipitation to begin?

For the metro...probably closer to 1-3AM.

For the metro...probably closer to 1-3AM.

Just as I get off duty. Works for me.

Okay the bottomline about what is going to happen tonight.

Someone is going to get hit with 1-2"+ per hour snowfall rates underneath a band that we call a deformation band or zone. This occurs when a storm system rides up along a boundary and on the cold side (the northwest side) of the comma head is going to usually have an intense, narrow shield of precipitation. In this case, it will be especially narrow due to the size of the system and the nature of it shoving off to the ENE and getting ripped through the jet stream once it passes across N TX.

So before the low actually drifts into the jetstream aloft and gets ripped to shreds and flies NE across the country, it will have time to anchor down and pull in moist air from the deep south and then this air will rise over this cold air in place here resulting in the above mentioned deformation zone.

This is difficult to forecast because the area of intense snow gradient will be relatively narrow. Radar trends late tonight will foreshadow everything.

The latest NAM runs are making me think this band may try to set up along 44 and just south. However, the northern trend is cooking right now.

Bread and Milk! ;)

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014020121/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

https://scontent-b-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1/1557467_10152223820812384_997598755_n.jpg

Of course.... I leave OKC to attend a weather conference (AMS) in Atlanta and am going to miss this.

https://scontent-b-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1/1557467_10152223820812384_997598755_n.jpg

Of course.... I leave OKC to attend a weather conference (AMS) in Atlanta and am going to miss this.

Looks like these late runs have a lot of mets scrambling some...I'm reading a lot #okwx tweets with murmuring and speculation that this whole thing ice/snow wise may affect the OKC area a lot more than had been previously thought.

Tomorrow morning may be a lot more interesting than anyone would have bet even 12 hours ago. Gotta love OK weather.

Just think back to how many times OKC looked to be in the bullseye and then a storm system shifted 50-100 miles north leaving the metro high and dry. Same is happening now except this time the shift puts the metro right in the crosshairs.

Filled up the propane tank and made our grocery store run early this morning. We have lots of birdseed for my bird friends and fresh chili waiting to be et. We're ready.

Don't want to sound like Mike Morgan, but WE AREN'T GOING TO SURVIVE THIS!!!

22Z HRRR slightly further south:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014020122/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Quick note to those viewing these HRRR models, they are 15 hour forecasts. So the latest one S00nr just posted ends at 13Z tomorrow, which is 7AM.

At this point, these things are so close together they're almost certainly within each model's own margin for error....you kind of reach a level at which you say, "hey, there's s decent chance this region is going to get something," and have to let it just play out. If people start looking for whether it hits north or south of SW 149th or east/west of May are looking for a level of resolution that just isn't there.

Bread and milk are all set at our venue :)

Here's a projected radar reflectivity map for that same time:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014020122/t5/1ref_t5sfc_f15.png

At this point, these things are so close together they're almost certainly within each model's own margin for error....you kind of reach a level at which you say, "hey, there's s decent chance this region is going to get something," and have to let it just play out. If people start looking for whether it hits north or south of SW 149th or east/west of May are looking for a level of resolution that just isn't there.

Bread and milk are all set at our venue :)

But but but...are the weather people suppose to say exactly how much will fall at NW 50th and Penn or Air Depot near I-40 in MWC?

I am not fond of ice but I will take any moisture Mother Nature will give up. Tired of smelling burning grass everywhere. Venture, your wx that is in print reminds me of the notams I had to read off back in the day.

Oh, HOW EXCITING if this verifies! I'm in Altus this weekend visiting the parents. Looks like we could get quite a bit here. :)

21Z SREF plumes are out:

NCEP SREF Plume Viewer (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140201&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=OUN&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=34.77443770260841&mLON=-97.49146878049373&mTYP=roadmap)

NWS Norman has increase snowfall amounts.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BfbuBLHCAAAknpK.png

I would imagine if the 00Z models stick with the northern solution, we'll see the warnings extended another row of counties north.

00Z NAM...

By 6AM... Norman - 1", OKC - Trace
6AM-9AM... Norman - 2-4", OKC - 1-3"
9AM-12PM... Norman/OKC - 1-3", NW Metro < 1"
After 12PM... Light snow south, ended North. Additional snow continues over southern OK.
Totals... Norman 4-8", OKC - 2-6" - Lower amounts North, higher amounts south.

Saw this and thought it was too funny not to post:

WE ARE AT DEFBRAUMS 1 :)

6545

No real change on the 00Z HRRR run. A band of up to 6 inches is going to line up somewhere just south of I-44 it seems. It has a bit more reasonable amounts in SW OK which highest up in the 8-12" range...instead of the 18" area.

Updated advisories for northern trend:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif


Looks like models holding steady at south of I-44 corridor being the money spot.

The Winter Storm Warning text for the Southern Metro counties...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* TIMING: SLEET IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHORTLY BEFORE OR AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE
SLEET IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AND BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 6 AM AND
3 PM.


* MAIN IMPACT: AVERAGE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

00Z GFS snowfall timeline...

Through 6AM... Trace
6AM to 9AM... 1-3" Metro wide
9AM to 12PM... 1" or less NW Metro, 2-3" S and SE Metro
12PM to 3PM... Trace NW of I-44, 1-2" Norman to Shawnee
3PM to 6PM... Trace southeast of Norman/Shawnee

Totals... NW Metro 1-3", Central Metro 2-4", South Metro/Norman 4-8"

RAP is off by 20+ miles in precip. placement in W TX right now. Not sure if this will evolve to overall north trend, but the precip. out there now is 20-30 miles further north than forecast.

Updated graphic from the NWS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full8.jpg

Latest HRRR shows the gradient really well...

Norman 4-6"+...Moore 2-3"...NW OKC 1-2"...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014020202/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Thankfully it looks like the main body of the snow will hold off until 6 AM, when my flight leaves OKC. How ironic it would be to be delayed/canceled trying to fly to AMS!

New Update from Norman...and the snow totals are going up again.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bfcd9KQCAAEjFrC.png

New HRRR just took a big jog to the east.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014020203/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Yeah!!!

Yeah!!!

Now now. We need the moisture. Drought is already back in the Metro and I'd prefer a short fire season. :)

Some quick observations of this specific run of the HRRR, it isn't initializing nor handling precip correctly. The 06Z time frame, which is now, it has nothing east of the I-27 (and further south out of LBB) area. However, we actually have precip/rain/snow over much of the TX PH just north and also south of I-40 down to just north of I-20. So we need to keep that in mind when looking at any of these model outputs - especially if it can't even handle what is going on now to a few hours out form initialization.

Yikes. This is going to be total crapshoot. I don't know anymore!!!!!

I am just mad that I will refresh the radar over 9000 times tonight until.

So at this point we really just start watching radar and holding our breath pretty much, no? :)

HRRR 4Z Update is really diving further to the SE. Looking at the 7Z hour which is where we are now, it does finally pick up on the band of freezing rain and sleet we are seeing from the area near Crowell, TX down through Guthrie and Post, TX. A couple takeaways from this:

1) It doesn't have a handle on the intensity of the precip falling, so that is something to consider.

2) It is completely ignoring the falling snow in the TX Panhandle moving into W OK right now. Ignore this part is going to have a big impact on snowfall forecast amounts.

00Z Euro total precip amount for Norman is around 0.3" liquid which would work out to about 3 inches of snow.

Echos coming up over WC and C OK now. Should start seeing the ceiling lower and drizzle/snow showers beginning.