I think SoonerDave and I had similar experiences and similar remedies. It may be that some youngsters/young adults may be predisposed to the anxiety and that it lessens with age and knowledge. Dunno. I know that, even now, I approach storms with a different attitude than my husband who has never been alarmed by them. I have a regular routine of gathering up supplies, making sure the dogs have leashes handy, having water set in, making sure the batteries are fresh, phones charged, etc. That may be the result of anxiety in earlier years or, more likely, just a reflection of how I approach it (plus, I enjoy preparing - these days, it is part of the fun).

Looking at the storm prediction centers webpage every other day and reading the weather forums during severe weather season is one of my favorite activities to do in the spring. I find science and mother nature interesting. I admit, I find other people freaking about the weather funny. I appologize to the < 1% of the population that severe weather actually does impact every year.

I tell my New England and east coast friends and relatives that we treat it like a spectator sport. The notion of settling in for an evening of storm watching from your easy chair confuses them. They realize we aren't making light of the harm they can cause but there is an intellectual aspect to it where the more you know, the more fascinating it is.

I was in NYC last year and a lightning storm rolled in. Watching it from a high rise was breathtaking. I mentioned that I found storms to be exhilarating - I never feel more alive than when a storm is rolling through. My dil commented that she didn't understand the mindset. Then she stopped to think about it and said my son (her husband who grew up here) had the exact same reaction and would watch the storms with the same level of devotion. You can take the kid out of Oklahoma...

I tell people that are not from our area that freak out over our tornadoes they see on TV that it's real reality TV.

So this isn't for down here, but we complain about our storms that move extremely fast in the early Spring season...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
913 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...
BLACKFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
JAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN WELLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL PAULDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
VAN WERT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EST

* AT 905 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF VAN BUREN TO HARTFORD CITY TO 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.
75 MPH WINDS WEERE REPORTED AT MARION AIRPORT AS THIS LINE OF
STORMS MOVED THROUGH.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
BE DANGEROUS TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

wow!

Interesting that most of the tornado reports from last night all came out of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and NOT the Tornado watch.

Interesting that most of the tornado reports from last night all came out of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and NOT the Tornado watch.

Scary, actually.

Interesting that most of the tornado reports from last night all came out of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and NOT the Tornado watch.

Looks like it is about half an half if the time stamps are right. They did a severe watch initially with a few tornado reports but then upgraded the watch an hour later to tornado that the others fell in. At least the acted fairly timely in making the change. Then you look at the rest of the reports and area covered by tornado watches and nothing but mostly wind.

Ah, okay. I did not look into it this morning other than reading the reports.

I just remember glancing last night during the event and seeing all the TOR warnings in the blue box.

Glad to see they upgraded.

Are the models backing off on snow next weekend? The 10 day forecasts I've seen show temps in the 40's.

Are the models backing off on snow next weekend? The 10 day forecasts I've seen show temps in the 40's.

New 12Z GFS has precip south of the area ahead of the front that will come through. Still takes us below freezing for next Wednesday.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_temp_120.gif

Interesting that most of the tornado reports from last night all came out of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and NOT the Tornado watch.

In some respects, this might illustrate a bit of how a particular kind of watch can actually have the reverse of its intended effect. That is, I suspect when the average person sees or hears a severe thunderstorm watch, they don't necessarily take that as strong a warning as a tornado watch, and thus assume the overall risk isn't as significant (eg, "It's just a thunderstorm watch"). In effect, they diminish the value of the severe t-storm watch because it isn't a tornado watch. Yet, obviously, we've seen plenty of circumstances where factors play in such that tornadoes develop many miles outside the "designated" watch area.

In some respects, this might illustrate a bit of how a particular kind of watch can actually have the reverse of its intended effect. That is, I suspect when the average person sees or hears a severe thunderstorm watch, they don't necessarily take that as strong a warning as a tornado watch, and thus assume the overall risk isn't as significant (eg, "It's just a thunderstorm watch"). In effect, they diminish the value of the severe t-storm watch because it isn't a tornado watch. Yet, obviously, we've seen plenty of circumstances where factors play in such that tornadoes develop many miles outside the "designated" watch area.

Smart or not, I know I'd likely take that attitude, candidly. I suppose I should use this little exercise as an opportunity to rethink my storm planning criteria.

In Today's edition of ... "The GFS Model: Erm Mah Gawd We Gunna Die!"...

Next monday...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/02/23/18/GFS_3_2014022318_F192_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Looks like a copy paste forecast this week. 40s and touching to low 50s some days in the sun this week. Rain chances Friday into Saturday. And like V mentioned, armageddon Sunday into Monday. Lol.

Looks like a copy paste forecast this week. 40s and touching to low 50s some days in the sun this week. Rain chances Friday into Saturday. And like V mentioned, armageddon Sunday into Monday. Lol.

By Armageddon does that mean we need to be concerned about a genuine blizzard?
Thanks

Looks like a copy paste forecast this week. 40s and touching to low 50s some days in the sun this week. Rain chances Friday into Saturday. And like V mentioned, armageddon Sunday into Monday. Lol.

At least it is consistent. LOL

Oh GFS...

So the end of the world winter storm solution remains for another run. Here is the QPF amounts and I tried to draw the freezing line on each one (I switched to white on one to see it a bit better)...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/feb14/march2storm.png

Right now for OKC, the upper air profile suggests majority of precip will be freezing rain with some sleet early on and at the end. The tail end would also include some snow mixing in.

Upper air sounding for the 156 hr forecast, which has the heaviest precip...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/12_GFS_156_35.29,-97.43_skewt_ML.gif

Red line is air temp and you can see at the surface it is below 0°C (temps at the bottom) but as you go up about 1000m it warms up above freezing. Classic freezing rain setup.

12Z GFS continues to paint a rather nasty picture for the Sun-Mon timeframe. We are still a bit too far out for specifics but there is definitely a concern for ice.

Consistency is key... in this case, consistency can be king.

An ice storm just before the OKC mayoral election???

Hmmmm.............

An ice storm just before the OKC mayoral election???

Hmmmm.............

Good thing we aren't in Hell, Michigan or the results may be different. :cool:

Well, Mr. Ice, hurry up and hit before the trees bud.

An ice storm just before the OKC mayoral election???

Hmmmm.............
I know, right?

Now, who to blame?

CH 9 at noon indicated to be on the lookout for a ice storm Sunday in the OKC area

And the hype begins. LOL

And the hype begins. LOL


It was Lacy.S..... She stayed pretty laid back about it..... but like several others here she was just letting us know about the possibility's..... Which IMHO is what she should do.
I for one appreciate knowing when there is likely an ice/ snow/ storm/ tornado risk as far out as reasonably possible.

It's one reason why I read thread's like this.:)

And the hype begins. LOL
I saw such "hype" here first.

It was Lacy.S..... She stayed pretty laid back about it..... but like several others here she was just letting us know about the possibility's..... Which IMHO is what she should do.
I for one appreciate knowing when there is likely an ice/ snow/ storm/ tornado risk as far out as reasonably possible.

It's one reason why I read thread's like this.:)

Oh for sure. I'm not bad mouthing Lacy at all. Just that as soon as one media outlet gets it out there, its going to take off and go crazy. :)

12Z Euro model is night an day from GFS.

Freezing line only makes it to around Kingfisher from the NW. Metro stays above freezing mostly. Precip extremely light in most areas.

An ice storm just before the OKC mayoral election???

Hmmmm.............
I keep telling people, it's HAARP ;)

I saw such "hype" here first.

KFOR is forecasting rain as of right now.

18Z GFS keep us mostly above freezing but the vast majority of precip to the SE.

18Z GFS keep us mostly above freezing but the vast majority of precip to the SE.

Agonizing. Makes trip planning for the weekend almost impossible.

KFOR is forecasting rain as of right now.

And what I saw only had rain on Sunday with temps up into the 40's on Monday. I'm thinking the worry about hype is being over hyped. :)

And what I saw only had rain on Sunday with temps up into the 40's on Monday. I'm thinking the worry about hype is being over hyped. :)

LOL yeah probably. Though I haven't look at Tuttle's FB page yet. ;)

00Z GFS dries it out even further.

In all seriousness, bchris, why get nervous? Being nervous isn't going to do one thing to change a weather pattern or alter the strength of a tornado or the diameter of a hailstone. I realize some folks worry more than others about weather - we're each wired a little differently - but I hate to see someone express such a level of worry about our traditional spring storm season before we're even out of February. I'd just encourage you to enjoy today - try not to sweat the stuff you can't do anything about. Don't let tomorrow's potential tornado do any damage in your head today. Not at all meaning to be snarky or anything - just encouraging - we've had some beautiful weather the last few days - would hate to think you cost yourself the enjoyment of them because of concerns about a potential storm. Heck, keeping us reasonably informed is what the good folks here like Venture and Anon et al are all about - to keep the stress and angst level down.

Enjoy your day!

bchris02, use this logic chart.

http://mentalfloss.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_640x430/public/528worrychart_5.jpg

Television ain't what it used to be...but in OKC, it's a kick to watch all the weather folks...oops, I mean Meteorologist, when a "storm" of some kind is approaching Oklahoma from way up in the Canadian territories. It is indeed entertaining. Better stock up on some more popcorn.

bchris02, use this logic chart.

http://mentalfloss.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_640x430/public/528worrychart_5.jpg
Excellent!

General model trend for Sunday-Monday is down on storm potential. There are some signs of March 5th being something to look at, but still very distant.

I think we are seeing the drought really manipulate our weather again. We have not had good moisture in almost 3 months.

General model trend for Sunday-Monday is down on storm potential. There are some signs of March 5th being something to look at, but still very distant.

I think we are seeing the drought really manipulate our weather again. We have not had good moisture in almost 3 months.

Completely agree. GFS keep trying to give us something substantial, but as usually it is in the 7+ day out period and then as we get under 7 days it pulls it back significantly or positions it well east of the area.

Since the month of Feb. is almost up, I just wanted to talk a little about this upcoming spring. I absolutely love the weather and have watched it since I was around 5 years old. Last spring we had an extremely active severe weather season (as all of you brothers and sisters down in OKC/Moore know :( ). Here in Tulsa we didn't have "as many" tornadoes in the area as you guys down there, but I still had many opportunities to chase. Please no one get me wrong, I do not want tornadoes to hit communities what so ever! I chase for the science and to help give local mets info to help keep people safe. As I've noticed lately (people that hate severe weather do not read), we likely look to be in for another very active severe weather season this year (Large hail, Tornadoes, flooding rains, ect.). If anything we were kind of "unprepared" last year as many forecasters didn't believe we would see "as much" tornadoes due to the persistent drought in Oklahoma. Looking at the weather we have had lately and this winter, we looked primed for April to be pretty active yet again. (Last few years we have had somewhere around 100+ tornadoes, with a high % coming in April). I wanted to bring this up to see what everyone's views on this subject are?

AGAIN I do not want to scare anyone, I just want people to keep this in mind since spring will be approaching quickly. My thoughts and prayers are all with you in Moore/OKC/El Reno area. God bless all of you. Stay safe -Taylor

Since the month of Feb. is almost up, I just wanted to talk a little about this upcoming spring. I absolutely love the weather and have watched it since I was around 5 years old. Last spring we had an extremely active severe weather season (as all of you brothers and sisters down in OKC/Moore know :( ). Here in Tulsa we didn't have "as many" tornadoes in the area as you guys down there, but I still had many opportunities to chase. Please no one get me wrong, I do not want tornadoes to hit communities what so ever! I chase for the science and to help give local mets info to help keep people safe. As I've noticed lately (people that hate severe weather do not read), we likely look to be in for another very active severe weather season this year (Large hail, Tornadoes, flooding rains, ect.). If anything we were kind of "unprepared" last year as many forecasters didn't believe we would see "as much" tornadoes due to the persistent drought in Oklahoma. Looking at the weather we have had lately and this winter, we looked primed for April to be pretty active yet again. (Last few years we have had somewhere around 100+ tornadoes, with a high % coming in April). I wanted to bring this up to see what everyone's views on this subject are?

AGAIN I do not want to scare anyone, I just want people to keep this in mind since spring will be approaching quickly. My thoughts and prayers are all with you in Moore/OKC/El Reno area. God bless all of you. Stay safe -Taylor

As a spotter/chaser for the media and a native Oklahoman I certainly don't want bad things to happen but I also understand from 42 years of living here that they will.

I think it is difficult to impossible to determine how active a specific spring will be. On the drought, there was a lot of discussion that due to the extreme drought in western OK that the dryline would establish its self further east last year which didn't really happen. Will it this year? Will the cold winter and odd weather pattern effect the spring season? I don't know. The last several years we've went from record ice, record snows, and record cold to record heat to mild summers and winters, active and mild springs, tornados behaving badly(El Reno, Moore), and extreme outbreaks in the ESE (Alabama, Georgia) back to a very cold winter with average to below average precip.

My thoughts are to be prepared every year as this is after all, Oklahoma!

... Looking at the weather we have had lately and this winter, we looked primed for April to be pretty active yet again. (Last few years we have had somewhere around 100+ tornadoes, with a high % coming in April). I wanted to bring this up to see what everyone's views on this subject are?

AGAIN I do not want to scare anyone, I just want people to keep this in mind since spring will be approaching quickly. My thoughts and prayers are all with you in Moore/OKC/El Reno area. God bless all of you. Stay safe -Taylor

Having lived in Oklahoma 48.6 of my 49 years, one thing I've learned is that its very tricky to draw any inferences from the relative severity a given winter and the subsequent spring in terms of storms. A broad prediction of a storm season is almost as dangerous as the hurricane center predicting "X" storms in a tropical season - its a prediction set up to fail. We had several very quiet severe storm years between '99 and '13, and even before '99, but they inherently don't get the coverage or as noticed.

The thing to know going into any spring is to just be educated. Know that when April and May roll around, it's that time of year, and when it gets warm, windy, and humid and sticky outside, chances are a shot at storms isn't far behind; and if you live in the greater OKC area, you at least start paying attention when storms start percolating in the early afternoon around Wichita Falls, Lawton, and up to Chickasha along I-44. Get the radios and flashlights checked, then tucked away and (almost) forgotten until they're needed. And let the good folks here like Venture and Anon give us their gifted insights when the storms really do get close to home.

Completely agree. GFS keep trying to give us something substantial, but as usually it is in the 7+ day out period and then as we get under 7 days it pulls it back significantly or positions it well east of the area.

Think the locals are struggling with their forecasts as KFOR has 70% for Sunday while KOCO is going with 20%. However I think both are saying light precipitation if we get hit.

Think the locals are struggling with their forecasts as KFOR has 70% for Sunday while KOCO is going with 20%. However I think both are saying light precipitation if we get hit.

National Weather Service has 50%...

Nothing like -35 in Missouri in March.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_temp_168.gif

Some hinting of storm coming back to main body of OK now for Sunday.

Online spotter training will take place Thursday if anyone wants to get in on it...

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/501502225

Hosted by NWS Norman it will run from 1 to 330 PM.

Sunday looking very interesting now.

Right now it looks like it's going to be a classic one like the early December storms we had this winter.

32F battle zone, freezing rain/sleet/snow precip type in question, dry slot W and SW of system, heavy snow band somewhere NW and N of system.


I will say right now it looks like main body of OK looks to be in ice mode, panhandle in snow mode.

The 12Z runs don't look like anything spectacular for this weekend. Precip amounts look pretty like for the most part except going into very late Sunday where some accumulating snow is possible north of I-40. Both NAM and GFS keep the heaviest stuff well east.

The 12Z runs don't look like anything spectacular for this weekend. Precip amounts look pretty like for the most part except going into very late Sunday where some accumulating snow is possible north of I-40. Both NAM and GFS keep the heaviest stuff well east.

While still not a major event in the immediate metro, the past 4 runs of the GFS have definitely trended wetter:

18Z yesterday:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/02/26/18/GFS_3_2014022618_F108_PCPIN_24_HR.png

00Z today:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/02/27/00/GFS_3_2014022700_F102_PCPIN_24_HR.png

06Z today:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/02/27/06/GFS_3_2014022706_F96_PCPIN_24_HR.png

12Z today:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/02/27/12/GFS_3_2014022712_F90_PCPIN_24_HR.png

Online spotter training will take place Thursday if anyone wants to get in on it...

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/501502225

Hosted by NWS Norman it will run from 1 to 330 PM.

Venture, do they ever make any of the training materials or perhaps podcasts (gasp!) of these training sessions available outside the formal courses? I, for one, would love to get better educated on this aspect of storm observation, but attending one of these sessions during the day just generally isn't an option...

Venture, do they ever make any of the training materials or perhaps podcasts (gasp!) of these training sessions available outside the formal courses? I, for one, would love to get better educated on this aspect of storm observation, but attending one of these sessions during the day just generally isn't an option...

I'm not sure. I want to say there have been in the past. They do rotate times on these courses. I sat through the advanced one last year and it was in the evening.

The materials used in the online and live spotter courses are available here:

Storm Spotter Resources (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=spotter)

You can also follow #ounspot on twitter. Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at NWS Norman, and others have been tweeting takeaways from the sessions using this hashtag.

Two important links on the NWS resources page are broken. They are links to these publications: the Basic Spotter's Guide and Advanced Spotter's Guide.

http://skywarn.org/wp-content/uploads/basicspot.pdf

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/skywarn/adv_spotters.pdf

ANON and Venture... Is there any new info on the chances for winter weather. I've been following the maps and local mets but I want to know what you guys are thinking so far? What about for the Tulsa area. I know quite a bit about weather and that it will change 1,000 times before sunday, I just want to know you opinions. Thanks, Taylor.

WSWatches going up in S MO and SE KS.

New GFS un-dryslots most of OK and gives us a round of what looks like ice/sleet. Then wrap around snow before heading off.

NAM shows the same storm but way off into eastern AR. NAM looks like it is out to lunch right now, but who knows - these things can evaporate in 2 runs.

Yep, 18Z GFS continues the moistening trend here in Central OK.

Edit: Although soundings show it ending as snow in central OK, with around an inch possible on top of the light glaze from the freezing rain.

Dryslot is back over main body of OK.

Looks like extreme E OK for ice and extreme N OK for snow.