Update via the 06 and 12Z GFS runs for early next week. 06Z keeps most precip south of I-40 and 12Z keeps most precip south of Oklahoma. Joy o' Joy. We'll see what later runs show.

Some of the TV folks are suggesting that the storm on Tuesday could be rather significant.....?

Thoughts?

Looks like generally about 2 inches of snow seems to be the average for mos. We have one more small batch of light snow moving into Norman and that'll be it for this wave.

To some of the comments earlier, this has definitely been a 30-year winter for many people. My family has had somewhere near 70 inches of snow so far this year when the normal is around 34 inches (they aren't in a snow belt area). It should definitely help with the drought conditions and improve the levels on the lakes up there. Yes, even the Great Lakes get low.


The one year my family does NOT go skiing, is this year :(

Some of the TV folks are suggesting that the storm on Tuesday could be rather significant.....?

Thoughts?

See what I just posted and also posted last night regarding the Euro and 00Z GFS run. You'll have to go back a page to find it.

Had to be '78 as I was in college when it happened and I started college Aug, '78.

Absolutely remember that storm and it was absolutely fall 78. I was in eighth grade, and we'd show up an hour late for school, do three hours of class (maybe) and they'd tell us to line up for the buses to go home. We finally closed for enough days such that we ended up making up one of the snow days on a beautiful Saturday in March, and about half the kids didn't show up.

I remember the snow being so deep and so heavy that the landscape around my middle school as we'd wait for busses was so indescribably and intensely *white* that it made your eyes hurt to look almost anywhere. The reflection of absolute whiteness was almost surreal. Even with the overarching cloudiness, the natural light reflected off that surface and it gave the sky almost a dingy yellow cast to it. It was deep enough where you couldn't even distinguish curbsides, lawns, or sidewalks. It was so cold that it created a nearly walkable surface of ice on my mom's pool - she went out to break it up just to see how thick it was, and it took a leftover brick a few smacks on the surface to finally break through. We were below freezing for multiple days at a time.

Although we've not had anywhere near the volume of snow this time around, this sequence of winter events (storms, snow periods, whatever we want to call it) definitely reminds me of that sequence back then. Can think of maybe one such event since then where parking lots full of plowed, dirty snow took weeks to melt, but that's been a while.

Correct, OKC had 3 or 4 significant (4-8 inch) snow storms in a span of about 3 weeks. The roads were bad for 2-3 weeks afterward, and IIRC, we had snow on the ground for about 6 weeks afterward. Seems like it was '77 or '78.

Right. That unforgettable bad winter really got underway on New Year's Eve when as much as 6 in. of snow fell. I tried going to a New Year's party, but gave up. Couldn't drive anywhere on the street in front of my house. From then on the weather tended to stay cold and cloudy, so the snow never melted off in time for the next snow storm. As I recall, it wasn't until early March until all the snow could get melted. I don't recall that fall standing out for unusually bad winter weather.

We had lots of below zero nights and few sub zero degree days for highs

I find that so unbelievable, I wonder if weather records confirm that. Or maybe it only means I wasn't paying enough attention to how cold it got back then.

I guess things are more exciting than I thought.

TSA short term typo: SNOW WAR BEING REPORTED NEAR FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...AND MUSKOGEE.
:D

There was a period in the winter of 94 or 95 when we had an incredible cold snap -- highs in the single digits and lows below zero for about a week (one morning it was 8 below, coldest temp I've ever experienced in OKC). There was a building at University Hospital where I work that was so poorly insulated that the building almost became uninhabitable. One office on the north side of that building got so cold that water in the toilet bowl froze. I don't remember any snow at that time, just incredibly cold!!! There was a story that someone in a van slid off the old low water crossing at Ski Island and onto the lake (not INto the lake -- ONto it).

Reference: General Weather Discussion - February 2014 - OKCTalk (http://www.okctalk.com/showwiki.php?title=Island:36585&page=8#post743737)

12Z Euro run takes Wave 1 a bit further north and confines most of the precip to Northern OK. There is some light precip late Sunday/Early Monday over C and EC OK. Everything shifts into AR very quickly.

Wave #2 is still mostly NW and NC OK, with some filling in around C OK and a couple inches here.

Wave #3 that I'll call it is some wrap around very early Wednesday starting around I-44 and going east through the morning. Maybe an inch from it around here.

We'll see how the next few model runs handle it. Still plenty of time before we start talking carbs and dairy.

Just depressing non-events all around. Another thoroughly disappointing winter.I agree.

Absolutely remember that storm and it was absolutely fall 78. I was in eighth grade, and we'd show up an hour late for school, do three hours of class (maybe) and they'd tell us to line up for the buses to go home. We finally closed for enough days such that we ended up making up one of the snow days on a beautiful Saturday in March, and about half the kids didn't show up.

I remember the snow being so deep and so heavy that the landscape around my middle school as we'd wait for busses was so indescribably and intensely *white* that it made your eyes hurt to look almost anywhere. The reflection of absolute whiteness was almost surreal. Even with the overarching cloudiness, the natural light reflected off that surface and it gave the sky almost a dingy yellow cast to it. It was deep enough where you couldn't even distinguish curbsides, lawns, or sidewalks. It was so cold that it created a nearly walkable surface of ice on my mom's pool - she went out to break it up just to see how thick it was, and it took a leftover brick a few smacks on the surface to finally break through. We were below freezing for multiple days at a time.

Although we've not had anywhere near the volume of snow this time around, this sequence of winter events (storms, snow periods, whatever we want to call it) definitely reminds me of that sequence back then. Can think of maybe one such event since then where parking lots full of plowed, dirty snow took weeks to melt, but that's been a while.

Ditto. I knew the family of someone killed that winter by a drunk driver on New Year's Eve out near Mustang. I was a few years older than you in '78 it sounds like, I was actually working and was just dumbfounded by that particular winter. It felt like living in Buffalo, NY.

I find that so unbelievable, I wonder if weather records confirm that. Or maybe it only means I wasn't paying enough attention to how cold it got back then.
It's true.... I paid attention to those things back then. And by a lot I mean probably about a dozen nights below zero.... Far north central Oklahoma was a lot colder than OKC in part because the ice / snow pack was deeper with about 5 inches of dense sleet topped off with several light snows. I can remember it being – 28 below in southern Kansas where they had an even deeper ice / snow pack.
As most here know there isn't near as much modification of air as it plunges south when the ground has ice / snow cover and the deeper it is the less modification occurs. Under these conditions when the wind is out of the north the cold air feeds on its self kind of like drought feeds on its self.
Gary England would sometimes call this the snow plains effect.

This is the only time that I am aware of ice fishing in Oklahoma.
I drove down to OKC and Norman that winter just as the streets and sidewalks had cleared off.... We had ice covered residential streets for about another 30 days.

Right. That unforgettable bad winter really got underway on New Year's Eve when as much as 6 in. of snow fell. I tried going to a New Year's party, but gave up. Couldn't drive anywhere on the street in front of my house. From then on the weather tended to stay cold and cloudy, so the snow never melted off in time for the next snow storm. As I recall, it wasn't until early March until all the snow could get melted. I don't recall that fall standing out for unusually bad winter weather.I road in a car with 3 friends to a new years party that night in what was the worst sleet storm I have ever seen even to this day.... (about 5 inches) It was cold enough that night that we had to keep scraping off the inside of the car windows. My dad and I put chains on 3 of our vehicles the next day.

I road in a car with 3 friends to a new years party that night in what was the worst sleet storm I have ever seen even to this day.... (about 5 inches) It was cold enough that night that we had to keep scraping off the inside of the car windows. My dad and I put chains on 3 of our vehicles the next day.
I was in Stillwater at the time, and it was all real heavy, fluffy snow. I'm glad we survived all that global cooling back them. The media talking about global cooling setting in wasn't good for morale.

Correct, OKC had 3 or 4 significant (4-8 inch) snow storms in a span of about 3 weeks. The roads were bad for 2-3 weeks afterward, and IIRC, we had snow on the ground for about 6 weeks afterward. Seems like it was '77 or '78.

Winter of 77-78. I had a newborn daughter and cabin fever nearly did us in.

00Z GFS run only brings and area of generally 1-3" of snow through central OK on Tuesday. Things are still jumping around a bit though, so nothing is set in stone.

I am very tired of arctic front's and snow. This weather is killing me. I'm so ready for spring.

May get clipped by passing snow showers later today as another weak system moves by mostly to the south.

South of I40 looks to be best bet for any of this snow. But it could creep up, just have to watch radar trends..


On to next week. This is what we have so far, a lot of inconsistency:

NAM puts main snow north of OK.
GFS puts main snow in eastern OK and into N AR.
GEM puts main snow through center of OK.

May get clipped by passing snow showers later today as another weak system moves by mostly to the south.

South of I40 looks to be best bet for any of this snow. But it could creep up, just have to watch radar trends..


On to next week. This is what we have so far, a lot of inconsistency:

NAM puts main snow north of OK.
GFS puts main snow in eastern OK and into N AR.
GEM puts main snow through center of OK.

How reliable is the GEM?

Baseball season supposedly starts at OU a week from today in Norman.
We’re going to need a major snow melting warm up.

What approximate time does the snow move into the metro area today,if it does in fact move in? Anyone have a clue?

Baseball season supposedly starts at OU a week from today in Norman.
We’re going to need a major snow melting warm up.

Major snow melting warm up? The can come out right now and the snow will melt. :) It's not like we have to get into the 50s to melt what is out there right now. LOL


What approximate time does the snow move into the metro area today,if it does in fact move in? Anyone have a clue?

Most of the accumulating snow is going to stay over SE OK. There really isn't going to be much to really worry about over us today.

What approximate time does the snow move into the metro area today,if it does in fact move in? Anyone have a clue?

HRRR shows narrow band of light snow along 44 corridor coming up around 4-5pm, but per current radar trends it looks like it either won't happen or will be south of I44. Either way it should not cause major problems.

SE OK could actually get some accumulating snow.

12Z GFS eliminates much of the potential for any precip here in Central OK next week. We'll see if we get a "snap back" in the models as we get with in 72 hours.

Any updates worth mentioning?

12Z NAM has maybe 1-2 inches now for the area early next week. 12Z GFS did have a southerly solution a few runs ago and then when really dry and now it has a northerly solution. Still generally 1-3" across the area. Hopefully by tonight we have a good idea as things start to shape up.

NAM coming back on board with a narrow, but decently heavy snow band across OK, mainly along I-40 corridor.

GFS is about the same last few runs, but keeps flopping on where it wants to put the band.

GEM has been sticking with the band through C OK for the last couple days, but moving it slightly further north and south. Right now GEM has it just north of I-40 corridor.

No weather updates today?

No weather updates today?

There really isn't much to update. Right now the models continues to have a very minimal impact on much of Central OK with the next system coming through. Maybe a dusting to an inch of snow looks to be it over the next couple of days.

There really isn't much to update. Right now the models continues to have a very minimal impact on much of Central OK with the next system coming through. Maybe a dusting to an inch of snow looks to be it over the next couple of days.
I thought I read today that OKC would see ice?

18Z Models are coming together some now. Looks like 2 waves of precip. First is going to be North of I-40 and probably north of the metro area overall. 1-3" of snow in most cases in a bad over Northern OK to EC OK. Then Wave 2 comes up from the SW and will bring another round of light snow from SW to SE OK - again, missing most of the metro area. A general 1-2" with that wave as it passes through.

Right now looks like OKC proper and much of the metro area will have maybe some flurries or scattered light snow but next to no accumulation worth anything. It then appears we'll be locked back into a dry spell for the next couple of weeks. Some chances for some precip in those two weeks, but for now trends have kept it all east. Temps will start to warm later this week and fire danger will also increase.

Hi temps are supposed to be well into the 60s on Sat. and Sun.

Bring on the sun! I wish that didn't mean fire danger, but dang...I'm getting depressed from all the grayness outside :/ I'm ready to see my daffodils and hyacinths break ground.

Trying to non rev out on Tuesday. Let's hope this completely misses Oklahoma.

Realizing its looking less and less likely that we're going to see much more in the way of appreciable snowfall with this next round, please let me at least offer the caution that we not get relaxed about presumably lacking new frozen moisture. Reason I want to stress this is that from the melting yesterday and freezing temperatures overnight, many side streets and church parking lots were absolute skating rinks this morning. At my own church, 00at least ten people slipped and fell, one injured seriously enough to require a trip to the hospital. Another fell just ten feet in front of me, and I caught myself slipping more than once on my slick-soled dress shoes. Just driving out our own neighborhood was an adventure - and only because of this thin layer of glaze on the road - glaze slick enough for me to slide right through the stinking stop sign at the end of our street.

The point is - be careful. We're almost through this.

On a day/night like this, where there's no new snow or ice falling, we get into a false sense of security that the worst of the stuff is behind us, when in reality there are some pretty serious hazards out there arising from the melting and re-freezing. Heck, I even pulled out a bag of play sand and sprinkled a little bit on the driveway and walk path to our front door. Watch yourselves as this (hopefully) last cycle of melting/refreezing rolls past.

If we could just get the sun out for a few hours during the middle of the day, it'd melt and dry up most of this. Larger puddles wouldn't completely melt, but most areas would be dry.

Here is the 00Z NAM with total precip for the next 4 days. Anything around here will be snow, so take the number and multiply by 10 and it'll give you an idea of snowfall.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_084.gif

Winter Wx Advisory up for Central and Western OK through 9 AM tomorrow for some freezing drizzle.

Freezing fog and drizzle should develop over much of OK this afternoon into tonight.

Then a couple light bands of snow will develop. Right now it looks like a primary band will setup somewhere from NW OK to C OK to E OK. A second heavier band from SW OK toward SC OK. It is going to be random about who gets under these snow bands.

Right now it looks as if they could produce up to about 3 inches of snow. But I would not be surprised to see higher amounts if the bands really get going over a concentrated area. Will be a now cast situation overnight tonight.

You can see on this map where the freezing fog/drizzle is. This area is expanding north and east.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.RELH.grad.png


This is actually causing significant icing on surfaces as temperatures are only in the teens.

Roads are deceptively bad in Norman. They look completely dry but have a layer of ice on them. I saw plenty of accidents and people driving like the roads were fine. Eeeesh.

Roads are deceptively bad in Norman. They look completely dry but have a layer of ice on them. I saw plenty of accidents and people driving like the roads were fine. Eeeesh.

Oh, brother. This could be really bad this afternoon.

Anyone here lurking in the S. OKC/Moore area that can offer what the roads are like down there?

Oh, brother. This could be really bad this afternoon.

Anyone here lurking in the S. OKC/Moore area that can offer what the roads are like down there?

Just got back to SW Moore from Edmond 30 minutes ago and the roads were bone dry...Supposed to get back out in an hour so wondering how different it will be then lol

Winter Wx Advisory was extended this morning through 6PM tomorrow.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...


* TIMING: PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HEAVIER BANDS OF
SNOW...THAT WILL RESULT IN SPORADIC ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE OR TWO
INCHES...WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.


* MAIN IMPACT: THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL
CAUSE A THIN LAYER OF ICE ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS...MAKING THEM
SLICK AND DANGEROUS. MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...A DUSTING TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

In 48 hours or so things should be much nicer.... so hang on

In 48 hours or so things should be much nicer.... so hang on

Understand that - just wanting to get family members advised of a possible slick trip home this afternoon.

Winter Wx Advisory was extended this morning through 6PM tomorrow.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...


* TIMING: PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HEAVIER BANDS OF
SNOW...THAT WILL RESULT IN SPORADIC ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE OR TWO
INCHES...WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.


* MAIN IMPACT: THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL
CAUSE A THIN LAYER OF ICE ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS...MAKING THEM
SLICK AND DANGEROUS. MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND ALSO OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...A DUSTING TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Any chance of S OKC becoming slick before 3pm?

Anyone here lurking in the S. OKC/Moore area that can offer what the roads are like down there?

One of our engineers just came from Norman and he said the roads were fine where we has near Porter and Robinson.

Any chance of S OKC becoming slick before 3pm?

There is some light freezing drizzle scattered around now and has been for awhile. Really it is hit and miss. Hard to really forecast how "heavy" the drizzle will get in one spot. :)

Yup, right now the drizzle is random.

Echos are increasing rapidly in the pandhandle and over CO as the piece of energy for this storm comes out of the Rockies. This will be the focus for snow bands developing and moving across the state tonight.

Just an FYI. Follow Rick Smith on Twitter today...he's providing a lot of good comments from the National Tornado Summit. https://twitter.com/ounwcm

Snow band forming nicely from Woodward to Enid.

Looks like the band will be taking a ESE development pattern. Which would put heaviest snow from Woodward stretching to Enid to Stillwater area. OKC could be split on this band and the one that potentially forms in SW OK.

Interesting. Morgan just stated that okc will have slick roads in the morning and that it "is a given, it will happen".

Any amount of snow/drizzle when it is 18 degrees and ground temps as cold as they are, will make roads slick.

Also it is not a guarantee the heaviest snow stays north of OKC, but per current radar trends, I would say that is the case.

This is purely a nowcast situation tonight.

sheeeesh freezing rain possible tonight and tomorrow and 70 by Friday

Anon has this covered pretty well. Looking at the HRRR, it tends to take the snow band to the Logan/Oklahoma county line and then pull due east. We'll see what happens. I think it also is under forecasting the amounts a bit just because it is stuck in a 10:1 ratio and we'll probably be closer to 20:1 today.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014021020/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

There is some light freezing drizzle scattered around now and has been for awhile. Really it is hit and miss. Hard to really forecast how "heavy" the drizzle will get in one spot. :)

Hey Venture, how heavy will the drizzle be right over my house?

Hey Venture, how heavy will the drizzle be right over my house?

So significant that you will be trapped inside for days with no bread and milk. :-P

Looks like further southerly development is kicking in. Light snow about to enter NW sides of OKC metro within an hour.

Remember ground temperatures are the lowest they've been all season. Anything falling will be sticking. Don't drive late tonight if you do not have to.