Do you think my 6am flight on Thursday morning will be fine?

Nothing is showing more than an inch of snow, so I don't see why you would have a problem.

Channel 4 has 100% chance of winter storm for Saturday. This is what I'm talking about. 5 days out and they are saying 100% chance of a winter storm. That can't be wrong, right?

I would love to know what model they are looking at. NAM, GFS, and the new Euro have it completely dry Saturday.

Nothing is showing more than an inch of snow, so I don't see why you would have a problem.

Sweet. I wouldn't ask any other met than you!

Thursday forecast looking at the 12Z models (18Z runs are going now)...

The pink are is the NAM's outline for roughly 1-2" of snow. ECMWF isn't that far off form there, but has a pocket of around 3" in West Central OK. GFS goes the southerly route and is a bit heavier with snow. GFS is the blue areas. Dark blue is a general 1-2 maybe 3" of snow (higher SW) and the Light Blue is going to be the 3+" plus area where 4 or 5 inches could fall. So looking at this the concern is that the models have roughly two different solutions to this. The most likely area for snow is going to be where the solutions overlap.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/feb14/4-2.png

I wanted to have some graphical reference because images like these are going around...

https://fbexternal-a.akamaihd.net/safe_image.php?d=AQAb3lUSk-hiHxI_&w=377&h=197&url=https%3A%2F%2Fscontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net%2Fhphotos-ash3%2Ft31%2Fq73%2Fs720x720%2F1888827_101518634942 76636_1760115863_o.jpg&cfs=1&sx=0&sy=9&sw=720&sh=376

Love that overlapping graphic, Venture.

As far as Saturday...

KOCO: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s.
KWTV: 90% Chance of Snow
KFOR: 90% Chance of Snow, The snow could be heavy for Saturday morning.

The Euro on the 00Z run did have some light snow around for Saturday morning, but the 12Z run eliminated that. The GFS for the last few runs for Saturday morning has look like this:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_096.gif

I'm at a loss. Maybe I just need more sleep.

This whole thing sucked :(

BTW, it kind of started snowing with heavy flakes here in S. OKC for a bit then tapered off.

18Z NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement now one Thursday with the "blue" solution in my graphic a few posts back.

KFOR needs to stop using "WINTER STORM" every time there's a dusting of snow. Today was like "Light Winter Sprinkles".

KFOR needs to stop using "WINTER STORM" every time there's a dusting of snow. Today was like "Light Winter Sprinkles".

but "light winter sprinkles" won't get you ratings!

but "light winter sprinkles" won't get you ratings!


Good point. "DEADLY WINTER STORM!" would be better.

Just a dusting of snow in Mustang overnight. It made the cats high step a little.

but "light winter sprinkles" won't get you ratings!

And it IS sweeps month.

Just depressing non-events all around. Another thoroughly disappointing winter.

00Z NAM goes even lighter on precip for Thursday. Maybe an inch south of I-40 and then dry through Saturday (end of its forecast window).

That's hilarious

Old Man Winter just letting out a few toots before he leaves.

Poor Emily...... She had the 100%, slam dunk, no way it won't happen Saturday winter storm on her 7 day just yesterday. Now it's a measly 20%. I said it'd be fun, and the the tv weather clowns didn't disappoint!

I noticed Payne played a little trick. He simply removed "storm 4" from Saturday to Tuesday. Hey it's just 3 days, lol. Gives them plenty of time to hype the major winter storm 4 Tuesday before it busts.

I noticed Payne played a little trick. He simply reviewed "storm 4" from Saturday to Tuesday. Hey it's just 3 days, lol. Gives them plenty of time to hype the major winter storm 4 Tuesday before it busts.
No one can take these TV weather clowns seriously at this point. It is all hype/doom and gloom/fear mongering bs with these bafoons. They need to put on red noses and big floppy shoes.

I noticed Payne played a little trick. He simply removed "storm 4" from Saturday to Tuesday. Hey it's just 3 days, lol. Gives them plenty of time to hype the major winter storm 4 Tuesday before it busts.


No one can take these TV weather clowns seriously at this point. It is all hype/doom and gloom/fear mongering bs with these bafoons. They need to put on red noses and big floppy shoes.

To be fair, if you actually listened to what he said, he specifically noted that the storm originally forecast for Saturday had shifted and wouldn't impact the state as previously thought, which means the next storm to hit, the fourth storm in the last week or so — i.e. storm #4 — would be around Tuesday. He's not saying it's the same storm. To say otherwise is disingenuous for the sake of TV "weather clowns" bashing.

NAM is slightly back up with this little clipper snow. General 1-2 randomized from about I-44 and south.

WRF shows the same and has been a good model for the last two systems.

http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c142/sacolton/ok_weather_clown_zps0597e13f.jpg

Looks like the Central/Southern solution is coming more in line with what should happen. NWS has adjusted their forecast accordingly. More thoughts after Euro is in.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_400x300_public/sir/inmaSIROK_.gif

Dear God! It's headed straight for OKC!

RUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUNNNNNNNNNN!!!!

Winter Wx Advisory is up...here is the text...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1256 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014


OKZ019-022>046-TXZ083>090-060700-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.140206T0000Z-140206T1800Z/
/O.CON.KOUN.WC.Y.0005.140206T0000Z-140206T1800Z/
LOGAN-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUTHRIE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...
EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...
PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HO LDENVILLE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAW TON...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...WAUR IKA...
ARDMORE...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON. ..
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
1256 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST THURSDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY.


* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...AND TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.


* AMOUNTS...TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.


* IMPACTS...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
SUNSET TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE AT
TIMES DUE TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES MAKING DRIVING EVEN MORE
DIFFICULT.


* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

Anyone happen to catch this GFS freak out for Mon-Tues snow?

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif

It is going to be pure irony if this band ends up giving OKC more issues than the last two systems.

It is going to be pure irony if this band ends up giving OKC more issues than the last two systems.

Tuttle said that one of the models puts out more than the others... but it's Tuttle, so I take it with skepticism. He's also saying 6-12 next Monday-Wednesday, which, while I'd love to have happen, I certainly don't trust. He helps hype things almost as much as KFOR.

Related to hype, I'd have to say that KOCO seems most grounded in reality, but maybe that's because I tend to only watch them and then see people post crazy things from the other stations (possibly out of context).

Tuttle said that one of the models puts out more than the others... but it's Tuttle, so I take it with skepticism. He's also saying 6-12 next Monday-Wednesday, which, while I'd love to have happen, I certainly don't trust. He helps hype things almost as much as KFOR.

Related to hype, I'd have to say that KOCO seems most grounded in reality, but maybe that's because I tend to only watch them and then see people post crazy things from the other stations (possibly out of context).

Damon and his crew stay pretty level headed which is much welcome. Tuttle needs to try to keep up his thousands of Facebook followers who get a bit too cult like for me.

Damon and his crew stay pretty level headed which is much welcome. Tuttle needs to try to keep up his thousands of Facebook followers who get a bit too cult like for me.

Just "a bit"? :)

Heck, it would be a MIRACLE if we got something that resembles a "storm"!

Any time I hear something coming from Tuttle...I can't help but think of the old MASH episode about "Captain Tuttle..." the non-existent captain made up by Hawkeye and Trapper to use as a cover for scavenging donations to the orphans.

So when I see a "Tuttle" forecast..I instantly assume its complete fiction :)

Tuttle said that one of the models puts out more than the others...

I had a girlfriend like that. Jus' sayin'.

12Z Euro is pretty much in the exact area as the WW Adv area. It is in line with the 1-2" snowfall amounts around here. So that all looks good.

Next storm for Monday Night/Tuesday...GFS is a bit aggressive right now on snowfall. Euro is more...meh...it has precip Tuesday-Weds with the bulk of precip going off to the SE. Temps will be supportive of mostly snow, but could see some sleet/freezing rain mix in south of I-40.

Euro output QPF is around 0.475" which all snow is going to be around 5-6" give or take.

GFS output...

http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_12HR-ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif
Freezing Rain Accumulation
http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_144HR.gif

Current radar showing the snow that has been pretty light out west. So far the only report is near Cordell.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/feb14/5-1.png

Just saw a "Winter Storm #4" for Friday back on the 7 day for Ch. 4 and 9.

Only here is 1-2 inches of snow...tenth of an inch of rain essentially...called a storm. :)

Snow movin ginto the metro now. mPING reports from El Reno and now Mustang with confirmed snow falling. Gradual increase in coverage over the next hour or two.

Keep an eye on next Mon, Tues, Wed....

BTW Venture and Anon, I've spent the last 6 days in Atlanta at AMS 2014 and have some stories that are sure to make you jealous. :)

Keep an eye on next Mon, Tues, Wed....

BTW Venture and Anon, I've spent the last 6 days in Atlanta at AMS 2014 and have some stories that are sure to make you jealous. :)

Totally jealous. My first year out of the last 4 that I couldn't make it. Hope you had fun!

Snow really picking up along 40 moving east.

s00nr, looking forward to it!

Light snow over much of the metro area now. This is going to be a very fluffy powder for this so we'll probably see snow to liquid ratios around 20:1 for this. We'll see how much it can squeeze out. Looks like max will be 2 inches of accumulation...until a bird sneezes and blows it away. :)

Keep an eye on next Mon, Tues, Wed....

BTW Venture and Anon, I've spent the last 6 days in Atlanta at AMS 2014 and have some stories that are sure to make you jealous. :)

So jealous...hope you had a blast. :)

Winter Storm Discussion for Monday...Tuesday...Wednesday...depends on which model you like...

00Z Euro
By Midnight Monday (12:01AM) light precip over much of Central OK back to the W and NW. Generally around an inch through this time frame. Through 3AM an additional inch for along/near a line from Elk City-Clinton-Chickasha-Norman-Pauls Valley-McAlester-Poteau. Maybe a pocket up to 2 inches in Eastern OK. By 6AM an additional 1" over much of NW, C and E OK. An area of 2-3" from Norman east through McAlester. Snow moves out by 9AM.

Tuesday 3AM another band of snow moves into NW OK, around and inch or less. Through 6AM maybe another half inch of snow for areas west of I-44 and south of I-40. North of I-40 maybe another 1-2 inches with some pockets up to 3" from Alva-Enid-Perry. Through 9AM light snow north of I-40, maybe another inch. Flurries SW OK another half in at the most. By Noon more light snow except for SE OK. Maybe another inch in far SW OK and also across Northern OK. Through 3PM snow increases over SW OK into C OK which another 1-2", maybe up to 3" around Lawton. Northern OK maybe another inch. By 6PM snow focuses on Central, NE, and SC OK. 1-2" with up to 3" from OKC area along I-44 and south to the River and then along I-44 up through Tulsa. Things should end by later that evening.

Wave #1 for Central OK someone could be looking at 2-4". Wave #2 on Tuesday Central OK could see 3-6" of snow. Precip type isn't completely locked in and we could see some sleet and freezing rain. We'll have to see how this plays out. On to the GFS...

00Z GFS
Monday will see precip start out mixed with some snow/sleet/frz rain possible over C and E OK as well as far W OK. This will continue to be light and transition to snow through the afternoon. By 6PM maybe a half inch to an inch of snow over C and Northern OK. Through Tuesday at 6PM looks like potential for some heavy accumulations. It has at least 3 inches over much of OK. Area over 6 inches from SW OK up through Norman. Another area with potential for around 6 inches over NW OK and NE OK. Rest of the Metro looks like about 5 inches. Through the day on Tuesday until 6PM moderate to heavy snow continues. Another 6 to 8 inches from Lawton to Shawnee. Then 3 inches around that area for much the rest of Central and Southern OK, less than 2 inches Northern OK. Things end quickly Tuesday evening. Storm total per GFS has about 10-12" for much of the OKC metro area. 8 to 10 inches from SW to NE OK. 6"+ for the area around that except for far NE OK and far S OK.

06Z GFS is processing now, so we'll see what it says and compare it to the daytime runs later today.

Metro streets have compacted frozen snow - might as well be ice. OHP has issued OKC as "Slick and Hazardous" (The worst you can get on their map)

AGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH

Is this the most active winter season Oklahoma's seen in a long time? Because I can't remember a time in my life when it snowed this often. I mean, I remember the big events where we got 10-13", but that was a one-time thing. It just won't stop this year.

You've made your point, Mother Nature. Some of us would like to continue on with our lives and jobs without you mucking it up with your "Yankee Cocaine."

AGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH

Is this the most active winter season Oklahoma's seen in a long time? Because I can't remember a time in my life when it snowed this often. I mean, I remember the big events where we got 10-13", but that was a one-time thing. It just won't stop this year.

You've made your point, Mother Nature. Some of us would like to continue on with our lives and jobs without you mucking it up with your "Yankee Cocaine."

If'n I recollect correckly, it was the winter of (aught) '78 or (aught) '79 when we had this or worse for about 6-8 weeks in a row, (or so it seemed). This was in SE OK too, so it damn sure was uphill both ways. I remember because I got "snow chores" and my stepdad and I trying to unfreeze pipes, drains, etc.

This is more like it. :)

If'n I recollect correckly, it was the winter of (aught) '78 or (aught) '79 when we had this or worse for about 6-8 weeks in a row, (or so it seemed). This was in SE OK too, so it damn sure was uphill both ways. I remember because I got "snow chores" and my stepdad and I trying to unfreeze pipes, drains, etc.

This is more like it. :)

I've heard stories from my parents about the winter of 1980, too, I think? I was born that year, so obviously have no recollection of it. (showing my age, I know). They were in southern OK.

In 1987, I think, we were forecasted a "light dusting" overnight. Woke up to 9 inches of school-closing glory. I obviously feel differently about it now as a high school band director in the middle of contest season, but I learned at a young age that predicting winter weather in our state is a crapshoot at best.

If'n I recollect correckly, it was the winter of (aught) '78 or (aught) '79 when we had this or worse for about 6-8 weeks in a row, (or so it seemed). This was in SE OK too, so it damn sure was uphill both ways. I remember because I got "snow chores" and my stepdad and I trying to unfreeze pipes, drains, etc.

This is more like it. :)

Correct, OKC had 3 or 4 significant (4-8 inch) snow storms in a span of about 3 weeks. The roads were bad for 2-3 weeks afterward, and IIRC, we had snow on the ground for about 6 weeks afterward. Seems like it was '77 or '78.

This is the type of weather that's fairly normal winter weather in most of Kansas.
Their really bad winters are a lot worse than what we're having.

The winter of 77&78 and 78&79 were pretty bad.... but it was much worse in northern OK than OKC.
I think we had around 60 consecutive days where it didn't even reach 32 degrees with ice, snow and sleet on the ground for nearly 90 days....

We had lots of below zero nights and few sub zero degree days for highs

Correct, OKC had 3 or 4 significant (4-8 inch) snow storms in a span of about 3 weeks. The roads were bad for 2-3 weeks afterward, and IIRC, we had snow on the ground for about 6 weeks afterward. Seems like it was '77 or '78.
Had to be '78 as I was in college when it happened and I started college Aug, '78.

not sure of the exact dates of the actual storms, but late 77/early 78 (Dec-Jan.Feb) was a real treat!! How do I know/remember?? Because I had a 2 1/2 year old and 6 mo old in the house !! Three weeks of being housebound with kids at that age is something one remembers!!

.... mucking it up with your "Yankee Cocaine."

Best laugh of my morning. Thanks bandnerd!

as someone who grew up somewhere without significant winters, I love it

Just depressing non-events all around. Another thoroughly disappointing winter.

boy you must be hard to please. although the total snow accumulations haven't been anything noteworthy, this winter has been one of the coldest and most consistent (snow wise) that I remember

One thing about these deep freezes is that it will kill off some unwanted bugs and weeds.
The snow is the best thing in the world for the winter wheat crop

Best laugh of my morning. Thanks bandnerd!

Can't take credit, it was from SNL's Weekend Update this last weekend ;)

Looks like generally about 2 inches of snow seems to be the average for mos. We have one more small batch of light snow moving into Norman and that'll be it for this wave.

To some of the comments earlier, this has definitely been a 30-year winter for many people. My family has had somewhere near 70 inches of snow so far this year when the normal is around 34 inches (they aren't in a snow belt area). It should definitely help with the drought conditions and improve the levels on the lakes up there. Yes, even the Great Lakes get low.

One thing about these deep freezes is that it will kill off some unwanted bugs and weeds.
The snow is the best thing in the world for the winter wheat crop

Absolutely. Growing up back north farmers would pray for this type of weather for the winter wheat crop. The moisture is great and the snow is a great insulator.