I'm sure Venture or Anon will be discussing that new forecast here before Damon Lane's debut at 5PM.

They've been talking about it.

18Z NAM...
No real changes. It does seem to get the main precip shield going a bit further west of I-35 than what it was before. Looking at QPF output it is around 0.2 to 0.3" for Cleveland County, 0.3-0.35 for OK County, and then up from there the farther north to you maxing out at 0.7" in Woods County. Which in snowfall amounts, this is what it is kicking out:

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_36HR.gif

KOCOBrad: At 2:15 pm, new data coming in suggests an even snowier Tuesday in OKC. Watch @KOCOdamonlane for that new snowfall forecast at 5pm

I rather watch my own fist hit my own face for the next 2 hours :)

18Z GFS definitely looks further south from my cursory glance at Twisterdata.

Excluding the high outlier, the SREF plume mean has 2.3" for Norman, 3" at Will Rogers, and 5.5" by Enid.

Edited to add: Eh, maybe not. Just looped the dProg/dt on Twisterdata and it seems to be bouncing around with the margin of the most recent runs.

I rather watch my own fist hit my own face for the next 2 hours :)

Geez, that's harsh. He's actually a really nice guy. He came to my school and spoke with my news staff for a podcast about this winter's weather and was very knowledgable. But I know it's the norm to bash the local mets here ;)

Anxious to see how much school we miss this week. Contest season for me.

Geez, that's harsh. He's actually a really nice guy. He came to my school and spoke with my news staff for a podcast about this winter's weather and was very knowledgable. But I know it's the norm to bash the local mets here ;)

Anxious to see how much school we miss this week. Contest season for me.

Now now...we don't always bash them. Make fun of sparkle ties and some antics, but bash? ;) I try to avoid criticizing too much because you never know who is lurking and reading these forums. :-P

I would bet on at least one of the local mets/personalities reading this thread, and perhaps participating at times... lol

Looks like moisture echos coming up on radar streaming out of NW TX and into WC and SW OK. This could be the beginning of a stream of freezing drizzle coming across the state tonight well ahead of the potential snow.

So....what do the above maps and models mean for conditions in the metro this time tomorrow?

So, Duncan will be missed by this stuff tomorrow? I sure hope so.

They've been talking about it.

I. Know. That. I'm talking about them constantly updating here which is great because who wants to wait til 5PM for Damon Lane? lol

I would bet on at least one of the local mets/personalities reading this thread, and perhaps participating at times... lol

Looks like moisture echos coming up on radar streaming out of NW TX and into WC and SW OK. This could be the beginning of a stream of freezing drizzle coming across the state tonight well ahead of the potential snow.

I believe one of the Chiefs participates on here - he's an airplane buff along with his meteorology. He's my favorite amongst them all, notwithstanding out mutual appreciate of all things flight.

So....what do the above maps and models mean for conditions in the metro this time tomorrow?

Maps being posted are snowfall predictions for the specific model. Each varies a bit but overall aren't that much different from one another.

I believe one of the Chiefs participates on here - he's an airplane buff along with his meteorology. He's my favorite amongst them all, notwithstanding out mutual appreciate of all things flight.

Surely not. The hours he posts on here don't mesh very well if you think he's certainly a chief meteorologist.

Doubt it means a thing but it feels like ice and snow coming to my place (SW ok county).

Now now...we don't always bash them. Make fun of sparkle ties and some antics, but bash? ;) I try to avoid criticizing too much because you never know who is lurking and reading these forums. :-P

Well, you're opening yourself up to criticism when you wear a sparkly tie on TV ;)

If anyone was following the chat room for the twitter feeds, please refresh the page. The previous chat had something like 25,000 tweets and comments in it that I felt it was time to refresh. I mean, it's only been since October? :) I'll be lurking and jumping in every now and then.

NAM seems to have gone off the deep end (though the SREF mean remains constant at 2-3" for the metro), but both the GFS and HRRR seem to be suggesting a scenario with one swath of higher totals in NW OKand another from EC OK and northeast. Of course this is the difference of an inch or two, so I'm probably splitting hairs here...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/02/04/00/GFS_3_2014020400_F24_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014020401/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Freezing drizzle developing in SW OK, this will spread north and east as energy approaches out of west.

FYI Winter Wx Advisory was extended further south again about an hour ago.

Snow developing from west of Enid down towards Clinton. Freezing drizzle moving up from SW OK.

Things should get cranking in the next 2 hours with all precip. types kind of banding across the state. As the low approaches late morning, a more solid period of precip. will occur.

Upon quick radar observations. It looks like main storm is tracking in more of a northerly fashion than forecast. This could lower amounts on southern end and increase dry slot death charge.

New WRF really puts this thing on tilt and dry slots the entire southeastern half of OK. Kind of splitting it down I-44. This does drag heavier amounts deeper into West-Central OK though, due to deformation zone on backside.

The freezing drizzle and wintry mix coming up from SW OK is slowly evolving and intensifying as it spreads along I-44. Approaching metro in next couple hours. This could put a glaze on everything and be nightmare in morning. If temps stay where they are, it won't be nearly as bad. But if we drop to upper 20s, could be an interesting morning commute.

Sleet reports coming in now up by Watonga. Precip continues to increase in coverage.

Winter Wx Advisory expanded for parts of SW OK.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
128 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014


OKZ037-044-TXZ084>089-041500-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-140204T1500Z/
TILLMAN-COTTON-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WALTERS...CROWELL...
VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...
ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY
128 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.


* MAIN IMPACT: THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT
GLAZING OF ICE RESULTING IN SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.


* OTHER IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE ARBUCKLE
MOUNTAINS.

Quick radar update...

Band of heavier precip starting to get established just to the NW of the city and over the NW metro area. A secondary area of light precip showing signs of increasing some is over SC OK. Things are still moving around a bit, so we'll need to see how all this gets established. Yellow line is the freezing line so any drizzle or light rain ahead of it won't be freezing for a bit longer.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/feb14/4-1.png

06Z HRRR keeps most of the significant snow well to the NW. If this verifies, snow amounts won't even meet warning criteria in all but maybe 3 counties. So we'll see what happens.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014020406/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Yup. All the action will happen north of the metro. No "winter storm" today.

NW. OK is getting dry slotted like crazy. Pocket of dry air stuck in there. May see it lose out by morning as the low drags the wrap around through WC OK. But huge bust for them so far.

This batch of precip intensifying over SW-C OK is to keep an eye on.

This rain in C OK should bring temps back towards freezing mark. Warm rain falling quickly into cold air at surface.

The wrap around snow in TX PH is getting organized now. This is the last shot for snow. If it moves more east, snow in morning. If it keeps chugging NNE, it will clip extreme NW OK and that was our storm.

Rain and freezing rain changing over to sleet here in N OKC.

If full sleet transition occurs then the warming will stop.

Full blown sleet downpour in N OKC now. This will cool all air column back down. Morning commute is going to be sloppy.

How are the roads? I know OKCPS has closed, but our school is holding out, apparently. I could hear the freezing rain when I let the dog out an hour ago but didn't venture out to see how the street was.

I'm in SW OKC, and not much is going on right now - dry slot, I presume - but a contact in Norman says they're seeing freezing rain again. Is it bulding back to the S/SW and overrunning the dryslot somehow?!?

How are the roads? I know OKCPS has closed, but our school is holding out, apparently. I could hear the freezing rain when I let the dog out an hour ago but didn't venture out to see how the street was.

Just looking outside my area here in SW OKC (and I think you're not too far away), the roads look kinda somewhere between glazed and damp...really hard to tell. I'd advise caution no matter what - esp if we got mostly freezing rain here without much snow on top.

Just looking outside my area here in SW OKC (and I think you're not too far away), the roads look kinda somewhere between glazed and damp...really hard to tell. I'd advise caution no matter what - esp if we got mostly freezing rain here without much snow on top.

As of 5:45-ish: Along I-44 south of 36-ish it was mostly rain with a bit of slush. North of there was pretty sloppy, but not awful. Reno was pretty much all water.

I-35 & I-40 from Moore to Downtown was still in good condition around 6:00 AM

Classic dryslot death from north of OK County and south. Looks like Tulsa will end up with snow this morning as bands developing just east of OKC and heading northeast.

NW OK finally getting their snowstorm. But amounts will be lower due to dry pocket that sat up there for much of night.

Wrap around snow cranking in TX panhandle, looks like this will drag across west central OK.

Looks like the dryslot is still south around the Lawton area.

Man, this major winter storm #2 was brutal. Not sure how we all have survived. Can't wait to watch the tv guys hype up #3 and #4. It'll be fun to watch.

NW Highway from Surrey Hills to Classen was wet with a little slush; same for Classen to 13th, and 13th to OUHSC area, driving was no problem.

Man, this major winter storm #2 was brutal. Not sure how we all have survived. Can't wait to watch the tv guys hype up #3 and #4. It'll be fun to watch.

From what I've seen this next one isn't packing much of a punch. My guess is they will be afraid to hype up the next one since this one was a complete bust. Morgan was only off about 6 inches lol

From what I've seen this next one isn't packing much of a punch. My guess is they will be afraid to hype up the next one since this one was a complete bust. Morgan was only off about 6 inches lol

When did you see his last report? At 10 PM last night he was predicting 3.5" from the NW to a dusting to the SE and said either of those numbers could shift north or south.

I know some of you guys like to bash the TV guys, and sometimes it's warranted, but his forecast last night was about as good as you can get for a winter storm.

When did you see his last report? At 10 PM last night he was predicting 3.5" from the NW to a dusting to the SE and said either of those numbers could shift north or south.

I know some of you guys like to bash the TV guys, and sometimes it's warranted, but his forecast last night was about as good as you can get for a winter storm.

Earlier in the day. He was the only one forecasting 3-6 for the metro. He was the only one hyping it up past the point of reason so I think he deserves a bit of ball busting

Earlier in the day. He was the only one forecasting 3-6 for the metro. He was the only one hyping it up past the point of reason so I think he deserves a bit of ball busting

Earlier in the day??? I think you just enjoy being a trendy ballbuster. His 10 PM forecast was revised and just like he said... Those snow totals could and did move north.

Metro roads starting to get icy and slick.

Road Conditions (http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi)

Earlier in the day??? I think you just enjoy being a trendy ballbuster. His 10 PM forecast was revised and just like he said... Those snow totals could and did move north.

Yes earlier that day. Didn't exactly light into him but definitely appreciate your feedback.

Light glaze here in SE Norman on cars and plants. Would've much preferred to deal with snow.

Light glaze here in SE Norman on cars and plants. Would've much preferred to deal with snow.

Yup. Glaze belongs on donuts!

Can't really get more classic OK storm than this. Temps around 32F, precip type up in air. Dry slot potentially busting forecast.

From what I heard on here and saw on social media, the OKC met's got it right. Saying 1-2 inches and getting a slushy dusting is pretty good in these parts. Some people just don't understand the concept of a forecast changing as conditions merit.

I really want to meet these people that apparently see a forecast on a Friday and never check with it again until the event occurs and complain when they didn't get their 'promised' storm that they 'heard about a few days ago'.

How do the roads look right now?

The snowplows came by my house and did a really good job. They melted all the snow on the roads.

Dryslot definitely killed this storm off before it could do much of anything. Looks like far Northern OK did get a few inches of snow, but around here just some sleet and a little rain. Did see plenty of mPING reports of snow in the metro, but didn't have any here that I saw. Light snow still scattered amount and could have a few flurries still. Only batch in the Metro area is by Minco and Union City. This will move up over NW OKC. Rest of us just some drizzle and freezing drizzle until things shut down completely.

Next round for Thursday has NAM and GFS split. NAM is Northern and Central OK with about an inch, GFS is Western and South Central (generally south of I-40) with less than an inch. They both eliminate any other snow chances for the week.

Next accumulating snow could be next Tuesday per the 12Z GFS. Areas most likely, at this time, to see precip would be along and south of Highway 33 that runs north of the Metro area. Quick estimate of what it may look like for the Metro area. North Metro - 2", Central Metro - 3-4", South Metro - 4-6". Looks like a bit of a warm up before the next round, but not much. During the precip time frame though we will be cold enough for ideally all snow and no ice. This stay fairly cool to cold through the end of next week. GFS then brings another arctic plunge into the Upper Midwest by Friday with air temps around 40 below. Ummm, brrr?

I live out in Surrey Hills. When I left this morning at about 10:00, we had slightly over 1 inch of sleet/freezing rain, snow combination on the ground that was new. . And it was still snowing at that time.

How do the roads look right now?

White in some areas, but mostly just wet.

:)

So no "doomsday" storm for this coming weekend?

So no "doomsday" storm for this coming weekend?

For snow lovers it could be a doomsday I guess. :-P

Channel 4 has 100% chance of winter storm for Saturday. This is what I'm talking about. 5 days out and they are saying 100% chance of a winter storm. That can't be wrong, right?

For snow lovers it could be a doomsday I guess. :-P

Do you think my 6am flight on Thursday morning will be fine?

Channel 4 has 100% chance of winter storm for Saturday. This is what I'm talking about. 5 days out and they are saying 100% chance of a winter storm. That can't be wrong, right?

I mean if you want to be super technical, if it is precipitating, it is indeed from a storm. And if it is snow, it is by fact a snow storm.


Now I know you're not being that technical. So I will say this... if you depend on forecasts that are summaried to percentages on a 10 day map with turkeys and bunnies on it for holidays. Then you probably deserve that type of information.

If you want to learn more about weather and the dynamics of it all in updates that aren't scheduled at 10pm, then you are already in the right place.