2014 Hurricane Season Discussion Thread

Atlantic Storm NamesHurr Arthur (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents), Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, WilfredEastern Pacific Storm NamesHurr Amanda (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/AMANDA.shtml?), TS Boris (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/BORIS.shtml?), Hurr Cristina (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/CRISTINA.shtml?), TS Douglas (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/DOUGLAS.shtml?), TS Elida (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/ELIDA.shtml?), Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, ZekeCentral Pacific Storm NamesAka, Ekeka, Hene, Iolana, Keoni, Lino, Mele, Nona, Oliwa, Pama, Upana, Wene

Current Conditions
Eastern Pacific Activity (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml)Atlantic Basic Activity (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml)Atlantic & East Pac SSTs and Active Systems (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at&MR=1)Potential for Tropical Formation Next 48 Hourshttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_0d0.pnghttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.pnghttp://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/at_sst_mm.gif (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at&MR=1)http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rCUMP_048.gif

Weather Information


Atlantic Visible SatelliteAtlantic Water Vaporhttp://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUVS.JPGhttp://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUWV.JPG



Western Gulf CoastCentral Gulf CoastEastern Gulf Coasthttp://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southplains_loop.gifhttp://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southmissvly_loop.gifhttp://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif


References



COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Analysis Data (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/)
Spaghetti Models Forecast Page: Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update (http://www.spaghettimodels.com/)
Florida State Model Page: Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
Penn State Model Page: e-WALL : PSU ELECTRONIC MAP WALL (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html)
Storm Prediction Center: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/)
TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts (http://www.twisterdata.com/)
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page (http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm)
NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/)
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/)
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
ECMWF Euro Model: Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa and geopotential 500 hPa, temperature at 850 hPa (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!North%20A merica!pop!od!oper!public_plots!/)

Yes it is really early for this, but PluPan jinxed it. Chance of development still low, but passing this on...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN INTENSE COLD-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 23N42W
WITH ESTIMATED MSLP OF 1010 MB HAS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
35N28W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER 12-18
HOURS N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN BANDS THAT WRAP AROUND
THE CENTER FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...AND FROM 23N TO
30N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

Well, I just didn't want to start a new thread in the weather category(since it is yours) and I do not know how to post those live maps and such on here.

I wonder if we are going to have an active tropical season this year... I don't know why, I just feel that we are.

Amanda is the first hurricane of the 2014 season on the Eastern Pacific side.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP01/refresh/EP0114W5_NL_sm2+gif/143802W5_NL_sm.gif

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

An eye has been observed sporadically in infrared satellite imagery
during the past few hours, and recent microwave data has also
revealed a small pinhole eye in the 85-GHz channel and a 12-15 n mi
eye in TRMM radar data. Satellite classifications are still rising,
and Amanda is being initialized as a 65-kt hurricane based on Dvorak
estimates of T4.0 from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Amanda is
intensifying rapidly, strengthening by 35 kt over the past 24 hours.

Amanda is located over very warm water and in an environment of
light vertical wind shear, and all indications are that this period
of rapid intensification is likely to continue. The operational
SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is indicating a 60 percent
chance of a 40-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours,
which is almost 15 times higher than normal. An experimental Joint
Hurricane Testbed version of the RII product, which includes
additional environmental variables, is showing even higher chances
of rapid intensification. Based on this guidance, Amanda is
forecast to continue strengthening rapidly, potentially reaching the
threshold for major hurricane in about 24-36 hours. After 48
hours, southerly vertical shear is expected to increase, which is
likely to cause Amanda's low- and mid-level circulations to
decouple. Therefore, fast weakening is indicated toward the end of
the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is higher than the
previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the high
likelihood of continued rapid intensification, but it is largely
unchanged thereafter.

Amanda continues on its slow west-northwestward trek, and the
initial motion is estimated to be 290/4 kt. A mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico should begin weakening soon, which will cause
the hurricane's forward motion to slow even further during the next
24 hours. In about 2 days, the mid-level ridge is forecast to
restrengthen over the western Gulf of Mexico while a mid-level
trough amplifies near 130W. This pattern change should push Amanda
northward between days 3 and 5, but the speed is still likely to be
fairly slow. The GFS and ECMWF models are located on the right side
of the guidance envelope on this forecast cycle, and the NHC
forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right as well,
especially beyond 36 hours. This track is also to the right of the
model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 11.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 11.9N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 12.4N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 13.1N 111.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

GFS continues to indicate a tropical low will form off the northern Yucatan coast next Thursday moving into the Northern Gulf coast by the following Monday.

I've touched on the GFS indicating something in the Gulf developing and NHC is mentioning it in the first discussion for the year...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated and nearly stationary area of low pressure located over
the Bay of Campeche extends northeastward into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although shower activity is currently disorganized,
some slow development of this disturbance is possible this week as
environmental conditions become marginally conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2014 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Arthur AR-thur Laura LOOR-ruh
Bertha BUR-thuh Marco MAR-koe
Cristobal krees-TOH-bahl Nana NA-na
Dolly DAH-lee Omar OH-mar
Edouard eh-DWARD Paulette pawl-LET
Fay fay Rene re-NAY
Gonzalo gohn-SAH-loh Sally SAL-ee
Hanna HAN-uh Teddy TEHD-ee
Isaias ees-ah-EE-ahs Vicky VIH-kee
Josephine JOH-seh-feen Wilfred WILL-fred
Kyle KY-ull

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled
issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical
Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS
headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the Tropical Cyclone
Public Advisory, the Forecast/Advisory, the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion, and the Wind Speed Probabilities, is issued every six
hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a Special
Advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of
significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. The Tropical
Cyclone Update is also used to provide a continuous flow of
information regarding the center location of a tropical cyclone
when watches or warnings are in effect and the center can be easily
tracked with land-based radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at National Hurricane Center (http://www.hurricanes.gov). You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
NHC on Twitter (http://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php).

Forecaster Kimberlain

Update on the possible development in the Southern Gulf / Bay of Campeche

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...LOW...20 PERCENT

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

Heading to Panama City on the 20th. Do I start paying closer attention around the 10th?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A stationary low pressure system located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers over
most of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas
of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite data
indicate winds to near gale force are likely occurring to the
northeast and east of the center, and some development of this
system is still possible over the next day or two while the low
drifts generally northwestward toward eastern Mexico. This
disturbance will continue to produce extremely heavy rains, along
with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Up to 50% now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/imagery/vis-animated.gif
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area over the southwestern Bay of Campeche has changed little in
organization overnight. Although upper-level winds are expected to
remain unfavorable for significant development, an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is still scheduled to investigate this
system this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance could produce heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Next chance on the GFS for a Gulf system...This is waaaayyy out there, so this system may not even exist. However, it does have a landfall system in South Texas.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/june14/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_240.gif

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area located about 120 miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

My two youngins and I went through Hugo back in Sep. 1989, while stationed at Shaw AFB, SC. Don't ever wanna go through something like that again! But, I gotta say...the bbq grilled pizza, that following morning, was excellent (lost power for a week and had to cook off a lot of food and put in the ice chest).

Heading to Yucutan on Friday. Any chance this system could intervene?

Heading to Yucutan on Friday. Any chance this system could intervene?

It'll have to move SW back over Florida and probably Cuba as well for that to happen - so I wouldn't worry.

Forecast models coming together on a pretty common track and strength forecast for Invest 91. The low will continue to drift tot the South and eventually Southwest. It'll probably make landfall or get very close to it in Central Florida and then start moving up the coast. Models get this up to Tropical Storm strength as it moves off the coast near Georgia and makes landfall again somewhere in Carolinas.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201491_model_zoom.gif

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...corrected
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

corrected tropical depression development status

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine,
Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly
southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally favorable, a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry
air could inhibit significant development until environmental
conditions become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low
meanders offshore of the Florida east coast. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has
been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Is this looking like it could be an active season?

Is this looking like it could be an active season?

No, but predictions have been known to be wrong.

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140522_hurricaneoutlook_atlantic.html)

Perfect timing. We're going to the Coke Zero 400 Saturday so hopefully this will suck all the moisture out of the region.

Perfect timing. We're going to the Coke Zero 400 Saturday so hopefully this will suck all the moisture out of the region.

I wanna go!!!!!

Strength forecast for Invest 91

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al912014_inten.png

Advisories have begun for TD 1.

TD 1 Upgraded to Arthur, now forecast to become a hurricane by the time it hits the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained
wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama
Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.

After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur
appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion
of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the
trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward
from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region
of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost
identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the
confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase
in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over
the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward
the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.

Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/MLB_loop.gif

Arthur has already developed an eye today. Looks really good on visible imagery. Hurricane Watches up for NC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

Arthur officially upgraded to the first hurricane of 2014 for the Atlantic season.

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft
showed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center,
and the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at
8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65
kt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty
maintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level
air being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar
presentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some
gradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while
the cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm
waters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show
Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close
to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little
below the consensus after that time.

Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is
now a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur
should begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer
trough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
remains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close
to the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the
center of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks
late tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate
northeastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the
northeastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end
of the period.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the
extratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean
Prediction Center.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation)

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 31.3N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 32.5N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 37.5N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 47.5N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z 54.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 60.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Arthur's eye from the Charleston radar site this morning...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-july/3-1.png

My sister in law is in Charleston now. She went there to enjoy the beach... Guess she'll have to wait.

Arthur should make landfall late today or tonight in NC as a Cat 2 storm before curving out NE. It is only about 45 miles from the coast right now. Here is another snap shot at 1PM today...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-july/3-2.png

For the radar geeks...storm relative velocity image of Arthur. The pinks in the NE section of the storm are winds 65-80 kts. Granted not 100% accurate, the radar image does bring a neat perspective. Especially when we are use to seeing rotating on a much smaller scale here in the plains. :)

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-july/3-3.png

Arthur is now a Cat 2 storm.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-july/3-4.png

Thankfully for our coastal friends most of the rain is on the east side of the storm.

Next system on deck. This one has already had an "eye" like feature with it, but is still classified as a disturbance. Expect advisories to start soon.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two. After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/92L_tracks_latest.png

Advisories on TD 2 have started, but doesn't look like it will last long.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

The area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has shown an
increase in convective organization today. Despite the fact that the
convection remains somewhat shallow, it has enough coverage and
organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT
pass around 1210 UTC was not conclusive in regards to whether the
surface circulation was closed, but given the persistence of the
convection, we are assuming that the circulation is closed and
are initiating advisories at this time.

The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass.
The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the
next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal
SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and
the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72
hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could
dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity
forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given
much weight in the official forecast.

The initial motion is quickly toward the west or 280/14 knots. The
cyclone will be steered by the Atlantic subtropical ridge during its
life span, and should remain on a westward to west-northwestward
heading with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is
close to a blend of the HWRF and the GEFS ensemble mean. Note that
the global models are having a difficult time tracking the small
vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower
than usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 11.6N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 12.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 13.4N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Big Island of Hawai'i to get a direct hit today from Hurricane Iselle.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2014/graphics/EP092014W1.gif

Here is a satellite image of Iselle in the middle and Hurricane Julio following right behind (should go just north of the islands but still cause some impacts).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BucJ5oFIIAI6ydp.jpg:large

Well...we are getting to that time of the year. The Atlantic looks like it has the potential to light up starting this week. Two disturbances out there, main focus here is going to be the one designated Invest 96L. To the East of 96L is a weak distance that isn't going to be in a very favorable climate for development and NHC is only pegging it at 20%. So will bypass that one for now.

Invest 96L will be passing over the islands into the Caribbean here in a few days. Forecast models really start to ramp this puppy up taking it to a TS with in 24-36 hours. A good number of the primary models take it to a hurricane between 60 and 72 hours. Then there appears to be a notable weakening after that, likely due to interactions with Hispaniola and eventually Cuba. Now the interesting part. Longer range models take this storm into the Gulf by 150 to 168 hours out...roughly a week from today. The exactly location is obviously going to have a wide spread when it comes to margin of error. Generally it is anywhere from South Florida to the Western tip of Cuba. What happens to it after that is anyones guess...but the GFS seems to have one that might impact Oklahoma.

The 18Z run favors a southerly solution taking the storm over Western Cuba into the Central Gulf. GFS maintains a WNW track through the Gulf bringing the storm on shore near the TX/LA border the morning of Thursday the 28th. By Friday the central of the tropical storm would be near Fort Smith. It quickly then moves off to the NE by the weekend.

Obviously where ever it tracks, very heavy rain will fall. It is way to far out to call it on how it will go, as of right now it appears it would keep most of the rain out over far E OK and AR. While we continue to bake. However, a couple other notables...

Another tropical system could be on going in the Pacific at the same time and as it moves north, that moisture could make its way over here as we've seen in the past. Also...GFS wants to bring another tropical system on shore into Central Texas by the 3rd of September. Usually that is the sweet spot for us to get a tropical system up over us. This is 2 weeks out though and most likely won't even happen, but I figured I would pass that on.

For now...keep a watchful eye on what is developing out there now. We'll see what happens. Of course we don't want to see a major hurricane hit land, but we can't discount how huge a tropical storm and it's moisture would mean for this area.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201496_model.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96L_intensity_latest.png

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_216.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_240.gif

Impacts the US seem to be decreasing with the new model runs. Majority now swing a hurricane out to sea and avoid the East Coast.

Still too early to lock this in, but it is the latest trend.

Models this morning seem to be trending back to a US landfall, possibly. Where? Anyones guess. System is still trying to organize, but it is looking much better.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_96

Advisories have started on TD Four.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0414W5_sm2+gif/204224W_sm.gif

The Atlantic basin seems to be waking up very quickly now. Four areas that are being watched...

1) Hurricane Cristobal which is just east of the Bahamas and may threaten Bermuda soon. Convection with that has really started to increase finally. It does appear the center is still exposed on the Northern side so no rapid strengthening. Afterwards appears it will stay away from land until passing over Greenland and Iceland next Monday as an extratropical low.

2) Invest 97L in the Central Atlantic. Guidance has this as a Tropical Storm in a couple days. Estimated track is fairly consistent in the models with most clustered on a WNW track for the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that there is some disagreement on where it goes. It does appear that there won't be a trough to pick this one up and take it away. Still too far out to determine if this goes South into the Gulf or makes landfall on the SE US coast...or if it even gets its act together to begin with.

3) A new wave is moving off Africa today that will track along the ITCZ. Models are slowly picking up on this one and the GFS tonight develops it but keeps it spinning out in the Central Atlantic and not making the trip very far west. This won't be the last. Central Africa is pretty stacked up with waves it looks like for the next week or so.

4) Finally an area of disturbed weather in the Northern Gulf has raised some flags, but not major development is forecast. This could bring some heavy rains into Eastern Texas as it meets up with the front visiting us in a couple days.

Gulf system is increasing rapidly today. It is now called Invest 98. Convection is exploding at a pretty good clip this morning north of the center. Need to keep an eye on it and may finally active the chat room for something.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201498_model_zoom.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_intensity_latest.png

If it keeps idling over the water for a bit, it could get going. Looks like this will be dragged into our stalled front later this week and move over OK (probably eastern).

Advisories on TD 5 started this afternoon. TS Warnings for the Mexican Gulf Coast. Landfall is set for early Weds morning.

Peak season for the Atlantic Season is here and we have 4 systems right now.

TS Eduoard is out in the middle of the Atlantic and no threat to land and should stay out at sea. Will be a hurricane in a couple days.

Next the three unnamed systems...

Invest 92 is the system over Florida right now. It is expected to continue to move west and make landfall somewhere from Louisiana to Texas in about 3 days. Models are split keeping it weak and barely a depression and others go towards as weak tropical storm. The SHIPS goes a little crazy and takes it to a hurricane.

Invest 93 is out in the Eastern Atlantic right now and should keep going WNW and it'll be several days before it might become any concern towards land.

Invest 94 is a new system developing in the Bay of Campeche. Models don't have a good handle on it yet, but generally should move North into either Mexico or Texas.

Atlantic is waking up a bit. Subtropical Storm Fay is south of Bermuda heading NE. Two more areas of interest out in the Central Atlantic. The furthest west one could pose a big threat to the Bahamas, but should recurve before impacting the US.

This isn't really topical or hurricane I don't think, but more typhoon area storms. Pretty interesting to see this.

Strongest storm this year? | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com (http://www.koco.com/video/the-weather-channel/strongest-storm-this-year/29502132)

This isn't really topical or hurricane I don't think, but more typhoon area storms. Pretty interesting to see this.

Strongest storm this year? | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com (http://www.koco.com/video/the-weather-channel/strongest-storm-this-year/29502132)


Actually that is a tropical storm but it's called a typhoon in that part of the world instead of a hurricane. They are the same type of storm.