View Full Version : Ed Shadid Launches Formal Attack on MAPS 3 Conv Center in tandem with Mayoral Bid



Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12

warreng88
01-24-2014, 10:57 AM
3 star? Are you being generous? I thought Aloft was in the 3-3.5 star range...

On hotels.com, it is listed as a three star. That is what I was going off of. I wouldn't put it that high but I was just trying to be consistent.

shawnw
01-24-2014, 10:59 AM
ah, well, I've only been there once, very long ago, so not enough data to derive a rating on my own...

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 11:02 AM
Right, because I don't know how many times I have thought, "Hey, let's stay at either the Skirvin (which will probably be close in price point to the CC hotel) or the Bricktown hotel and convention center. The Skirvin is $229/night, a four star, interior room hotel in the heart of DT OKC that opened in 1911 and has been beautifully restored with all the high end finishes, restaurant, bar, room service and valet. The BT Hotel and Convention Center is $99/night, a three star, exterior room hotel a mile east of BT/DT with truck stop/Indian grocery store across the street. Hmmm, which one should I pick?"

I guess that depends on your travel budget and other factors. I've been known to stay in $60 a night hotels when I travel with one of my outdoor buddies because that's all he'll spend and I've spent in the hundreds for rooms in resorts and upscale urban centers.

If you had been to hear the arguably highly biased HS, you would have heard his stories of him personally staying in convention center hotels for $57 a night, because they were built on consultants bull hockey, spend most of the time empty, if not go bankrupt on the taxpayers dime, and seriously affect the other business owners in the area. Who is going to stay in the Skirvin for $229/night if they could get a taxpayer subsidized room a couple of blocks away for a fourth the price?

warreng88
01-24-2014, 11:04 AM
I guess that depends on your travel budget and other factors. I've been known to stay in $60 a night hotels when I travel with one of my outdoor buddies because that's all he'll spend.

If you had been to hear the arguably highly biased HS, you would have heard his stories of staying in convention center hotels for $57 a night, because they were built on consultants bull hockey, spend most of the time empty, if not go bankrupt on the taxpayers dime, and seriously affect the other business owners in the area. Who is going to stay in the Skirvin if they could get a subsidized room a couple of blocks away for a fourth the price?

I have stayed at convention hotels all over the US and have never seen one less that $200/night. Where are these hotels that are that cheap and also very luxurious?

bradh
01-24-2014, 11:05 AM
Popular to contrary belief, there are rich people out there who would absolutely stay at the Skirvin instead, for the ambience and experience. Even some not so rich people as well

OSUFan
01-24-2014, 11:08 AM
I have stayed at convention hotels all over the US and have never seen one less that $200/night. Where are these hotels that are that cheap and also very luxurious?

I'm also curious where all these $60 a night convention center hotels are.

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 11:21 AM
Haywood you share that info...

warreng88
01-24-2014, 11:23 AM
ah, well, I've only been there once, very long ago, so not enough data to derive a rating on my own...

I worked at the bank that financed the renovation of it. Although, the interior was nicely done (you can see in the pictures) it is still a two story exterior room hotel with no amenities next a highway, other budget hotels and truck stops. The flood of 2009 made them gut the entire thing and start from scratch.

betts
01-24-2014, 01:46 PM
I meant to post this here, but got distracted by the Red Dirt Report implying that the middle class is somehow now the enemy. So, sorry for the double post, but these are the questions I'm asking on this subject:

1. Do we have a current convention center that is of an appropriate size and quality for a city of our size? Personally, although I'm not dying for a new convention center, I have to admit that the answer is probably no. The Cox Center is poorly organized, looks shabby and that's on the interior. The exterior is ghastly and the superblock it's on is in a horrible location for a superblock. It will be 50 years old soon. So, I don't mind building a $250 million convention center. A different location would be nice. So, based on my answer, even if I didn't think that it's a mistake to basically spit in the eye of people who took the trouble to vote for MAPS 3 by trying to stop it, I think a new convention center is probably a worthwhile expenditure. I might go for it just to see the Cox Convention Center torn down, personally.

2. Do we have to have a convention center hotel? This I don't know. I'm fine with getting more information on this subject. I'm going to read the consultant's report when I get a bit of free time and decide what I think of their data. That's pretty much what the city council has done. They listened to the consultant, looked at his slides and handout and said "thank you". Did anyone say we're getting a convention center hotel come hell or high water? Not publicly. Did anyone say we're using MAPS dollars for a convention center hotel? Not that I've noticed. Did anyone say $200 million? Ed Shadid. Anyone else? Not on the record anywhere. Did anyone say $50 million? Not anywhere that I've read. So, it seems like any convention center hotel anxiety is premature. Let's educate ourselves so we can have an educated opinion if the subject comes up.

3. If the city decides we have to have a convention center hotel, who will pay for it? This too is an important question. But, until the question of whether we're going to have a hotel is answered, what value is discussing who will pay what? This is definitely putting the cart before the horse.

4. What if the convention center needs a phase II? Hmmmm. Is there any way to pay for a phase II with MAPS 3 funds? Nope. So, I guess the voters will have to decide. What a concept! Ask the people. If they say no, the Chamber will have to hold a few bake sales I guess.

5. Should a convention center be self-supporting? I don't know. Is anything else we've built with MAPS self-supporting? Is anything a city builds self-supporting? It's kind of tricky, as you have to factor in salaries of people employed to build the structure, salaries of people who run the structure, potential sales taxes and hotel taxes generated, not to mention all those pesky intangibles like civic pride, interest generated in visiting the city, how many new conventions might be interested in coming, what the economy is doing, what the economy will be doing in the future. It's tough.

6. Does any of the above justify stopping MAPS collections prematurely? To me, question #1 is the only relevant one here, since nowhere has anyone said we're getting a hotel and/or it's being paid for with MAPS dollars. Personally, my answer is a resounding no, for all the reasons I've outlined previously. But trying to lump a hotel with the question of stopping MAPS is again using fear-mongering to politick. Ed is hoping the low information voters won't think this through and will believe all his hype.

Steve
01-24-2014, 02:53 PM
I guess that depends on your travel budget and other factors. I've been known to stay in $60 a night hotels when I travel with one of my outdoor buddies because that's all he'll spend and I've spent in the hundreds for rooms in resorts and upscale urban centers.

If you had been to hear the arguably highly biased HS, you would have heard his stories of him personally staying in convention center hotels for $57 a night, because they were built on consultants bull hockey, spend most of the time empty, if not go bankrupt on the taxpayers dime, and seriously affect the other business owners in the area. Who is going to stay in the Skirvin for $229/night if they could get a taxpayer subsidized room a couple of blocks away for a fourth the price?

You've clearly not stayed at the Skirvin. This is like asking why would someone dine at Red Prime Steakhouse when a McDonalds is just a couple blocks away in Bricktown.

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 02:55 PM
You've clearly not stayed at the Skirvin. This is like asking why would someone dine at Red Prime Steakhouse when a McDonalds is just a couple blocks away in Bricktown.

You clearly suffer from reading comprehension failure.

Steve
01-24-2014, 02:59 PM
You clearly suffer from reading comprehension failure.

That happens a lot on chat boards....

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 03:03 PM
True that and I'm guilty of much more, including writing failure. The hypothetical choice was staying at the Skirvin for $225 vs staying at a brand new (possibly lux) downtown convention center hotel a couple of blocks away from the Skirven for super subsidized cheap because we were stupid and built way too many rooms. Some would still pick the Skirvin. Some wouldn't. Might have a huge impact on the Skirvin's bottom line. Might not.

Wife and I do all sorts of expensive not always the best financial decision stuff, depending.

I worked on the Skirvin during the overhaul but haven't stayed there.

Steve
01-24-2014, 03:18 PM
You're not saying it's overbuilt now, right? Downtown's hotel occupancy is considered to be among the best in the state, often hovering at over 80 percent. BTW: in terms of comparing the "Bricktown" Hotel and Convention Center (it is not in Bricktown at all) to downtown's other hotels, read the reviews: http://www.yelp.com/biz/bricktown-hotel-and-convention-center-oklahoma-city-2

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 04:07 PM
You're not saying it's overbuilt now, right? Downtown's hotel occupancy is considered to be among the best in the state, often hovering at over 80 percent. BTW: in terms of comparing the "Bricktown" Hotel and Convention Center (it is not in Bricktown at all) to downtown's other hotels, read the reviews: Bricktown Hotel & Convention Center - Oklahoma City, OK (http://www.yelp.com/biz/bricktown-hotel-and-convention-center-oklahoma-city-2)

Pretty astute, Steve, you caught me not saying that.

betts
01-24-2014, 07:29 PM
I hope Steve doesn't mind me quoting him. Thanks Steve for being the voice of reason.

Steve Lackmeyer: Major new retail is coming to downtown Oklahoma City | News OK (http://newsok.com/steve-lackmeyer-major-new-retail-is-coming-to-downtown-oklahoma-city/article/3926910)

The speaker, Haywood Sanders, is paid to travel around the country to provide an argument against convention centers and conference hotels, just as he argues consultants like Convention Sports & Leisure are paid by cities and chambers to justify why they are needed. I am not aware of an instance where CSL has recommended against building a convention center and conference hotel. I am also not aware of an instance where Sanders argues for building a convention center and hotel. One argument being cited is that this new convention center will operate at a loss. Well, yeah, that's a given with every convention center. They are considered "loss leaders" that are designed to bring in out of town visitors whose spending elsewhere is what cities hope will make the proposition profitable. This all boils down to a philosophical debate: does Oklahoma City want to compete for convention business or drop out all together?

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 07:38 PM
I read that earlier looking for the as yet non-existent first hand Oklahoman reporting on the town hall meeting.


Well, yeah, that's a given with every convention center. They are considered "loss leaders"

Steve, are you making the claim everyone, leadership on down, including both Mick and the Chamber, knew and informed the voters before the Maps vote a CC in and of itself would be on ongoing loss for the city? Can you cite that for us showing when that was common knowledge? How much can the city expect to lose each year for the first decade? Will that black hole get bigger or smaller with the size of the center getting larger or smaller initially? How will it change with a future expansion, become more of "loss leader" or less?

shawnw
01-24-2014, 08:00 PM
I presume the Cox Convention Center also operates at a loss? Can anyone give us numbers?

How about its predecessor, the municipal auditorium? Did it operate at a loss?

If so, I'm not sure it should be a surprise to anyone that the next replacement would also operate at a loss. I mean, does anyone, even the least informed among us, think that a Convention Center of any kind is a profit maker?

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 08:06 PM
I presume the Cox Convention Center also operates at a loss? Can anyone give us numbers?

How about its predecessor, the municipal auditorium? Did it operate at a loss?

If so, I'm not sure it should be a surprise to anyone that the next replacement would also operate at a loss. I mean, does anyone, even the least informed among us, think that a Convention Center of any kind is a profit maker?

And if we double the size of the CC will it cost twice as much, three times as much or 1/2 as much?

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 08:08 PM
Steve, what's the difference between Steve getting paid and saying CCs are losers and Haywood Sanders getting paid and saying CCs are losers, other than the fact Haywood is a recognized scholar in the field and you aren't?

betts
01-24-2014, 09:34 PM
So, after getting an email today telling me about a professional meeting being held by one of the organizations to which I belong and seeing the hotel prices for the convention, I tried to do a little research. My convention is in San Diego. In addition to it, I tried to look for cities that are fairly comparable to Oklahoma City that have subsidized hotels to see what they charge for a night.

For my convention, which has an option to stay at the San Diego Hilton - ($46.5 million subsidy): $253/night

Denver Convention Center Hyatt Regency Denver at Colorado Convention Center: $199 (Subsidy is $350 million in revenue bonds paid off from hotel’s earnings.
Since 2006, the hotel has paid $52.9 million in taxes to Denver and contributed $2.1 million in excess profits to the city's general fund.)
I noticed the Denver Convention Center hosts mostly local and regional events, at least in 2014.

Omni Convention Center Hotel in Nashville: From $270/night ($128 million subsidy)

Indianapolis Westin $207/night (couldn't find the subsidy amount)

Charlotte Westin: $195-300/night ($16 million subsidy)

And a sobering piece of data: $265 million dollar Renaissance in St. Louis, built by the city, went bankrupt

None of this implies that a convention center hotel would make money for Oklahoma City. Since it has been suggested that cities give deep discounts to attract people to these hotels, I just wanted to see if that was the case. What I found was that subsidized hotel prices for these cities do not really seem to be much different from the prices charged by other hotels. I tried to find a convention for 2014 in each of these cities and look at the cost for an attendee so that if there were deep discounts for convention goers, I would discover that fact.

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 09:41 PM
Did you try to actually book any for a given date through a discounter?

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 09:43 PM
Here's one of the first ones I found on a search earlier today. I do not remember if HS mentioned this one last night but I do remember him talking about one in NJ.

September 2013

Trenton, New Jersey: Lafayette Yard Hotel and Conference Center has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy relief.

The public board that oversees the hotel formerly known as the Trenton Marriott voted to file for bankruptcy protection after it was projected that it would run an $880,000 operating deficit by the end of the year. Since it opened in 2001, the hotel has struggled to turn a profit and has been unable to pay the debt service on bonds, which include $13.3 million in city-backed debt.

The 197-room Lafayette Yard Hotel & Conference Center is Trenton's only hotel. When it opened, it was promoted as a potential boon for a struggling city.

Trenton, NJ, Conference Center Hotel Files for Bankruptcy | International Meetings Review (http://www.internationalmeetingsreview.com/new-jersey/trenton-nj-conference-center-hotel-files-bankruptcy-96971)

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 09:46 PM
BTW...Haywood says he uses Priceline and that's how he got his $57 CC hotel room. I've used them once, not to book a convention center hotel, to book a hotel in Atlanta for a wedding. It was cheap but there were issues unrelated to the topic.

betts
01-24-2014, 09:57 PM
I'm not going to go back right now and compare all of them. I did check hotels.com for a few of the prices listed above. So, for the convention I used for Charlotte, the Priceline price was $241 and the Hotels.com was $258.

For my convention in San Diego, both Priceline and Hotels.com were $299/night.

Did Heywood say if that $57 price was found in 2013, found in every city, and found during a reasonably high season?

You can find amazing prices in New York and London if you pick undesirable dates. If you used 2008 as a benchmark, prices were likely pretty low and if he found that $57 price in every city with a subsidized convention center hotel it would be more significant than just one.

Have you ever been to Trenton? It's halfway between NYC and Philadelphia. How do you compete with them?

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 10:11 PM
He wasn't checking prices online, he was recounting his experience actually bidding for rooms for his travel, which means committing to buy a room at his price in advance, rooms the hotel has set up in the discount market at those lower prices. He didn't discuss those mechanics because it really didn't have anything to do with the topic at hand other to illustrate that it happens with CC hotels.

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 10:17 PM
I think I understand what you are saying but if you are saying what I think you are saying, then his "research" is pretty flawed. I've stayed at very nice hotels for cheap rates. That doesn't mean they were subsidized or going bankrupt. How can getting a good deal at a CC hotel count as any kind of useful data?

It wasn't presented as "his research," neither by him nor I.

Tier2City
01-24-2014, 10:22 PM
It wasn't presented as "his research," neither by him nor I.

We'll see when the video comes out. Any word on that yet?

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 10:24 PM
Exactly.

I have no idea. It's been asked about and not answered on the facebook page about the event. I haven't looked elsewhere.

betts
01-24-2014, 10:25 PM
Again, in 2013 and in every city with a subsidized hotel? When you make offhand remarks like that they can be misinterpreted as being consistently the case. Also, if he was using the Priceline "name your price" option, it may have been similar to what the airlines do. If they haven't sold a few seats they will deeply discount them. But they may have sold the majority of the seats at full price, they may have sold every first class seat. Selling one or two seats at a deep discount tells you only that they haven't sold one or two seats, not that they're losing money.

Tier2City
01-24-2014, 10:31 PM
I see. Just an anecdote he mentioned?

That would be ironic if he was trying to make a big thing out of criticizing the poor quality of CSL and Stone's research. But I guess his anecdotes are authoritative.

coov23
01-24-2014, 10:38 PM
So, I have to ask this question for those that know better than I. How is Shadid going to be portrayed in OKC if all of his past, present and future endeavors/political/personal stuff continues to be proven as a farce? I'm a Mick guy. Just a citizen that's liked where he has the city headed. Can someone make a case to prove to me Shadid oils be better?

This is an honest question. If I'm going to vote, I want to hear both sides. Not propaganda.

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 10:53 PM
We started down this line when it was asked why ED picked the location, and I gave the stated reason ED gave for choosing the location as best I could quote from memory. Ed spoke for 10 or 15 minutes in generalities, HS talked for maybe 45 or 50 and the rest of the 1.5 hours total was questions to HS. Hotels were talked about in general and the recent report given to the council on hotels was talked about specifically. And more. It was a town hall meeting, not a dissertation defense. If you want to know the methodology and specifics of his research work it would probably be best to go study under him or read the "300 page book coming out that no one will read" and his published peer reviewed papers.

If you wanted to throw some hardball questions at him, you sure missed your opportunity. The floor was open.

Tier2City
01-24-2014, 11:08 PM
We started down this line when it was asked why ED picked the location, and I gave the stated reason ED gave for choosing the location as best I could quote from memory. Ed spoke for 10 or 15 minutes in generalities, HS talked for maybe 45 or 50 and the rest of the 1.5 hours total was questions to HS. Hotels were talked about in general and the recent report given to the council on hotels was talked about specifically. And more. It was a town hall meeting, not a dissertation defense. If you want to know the methodology and specifics of his research work it would probably be best to go study under him or read the "300 page book coming out that no one will read" and his published peer reviewed papers.

If you wanted to throw some hardball questions at him, you sure missed your opportunity. The floor was open.

Just be careful you don't stray too far from the campaign talking points. The big theme was subjecting everything to close scrutiny. Wouldn't try to shut that down if I were you.

betts
01-24-2014, 11:14 PM
Did anyone throw any hardball questions? Or was it a "feed on the plutocrats" frenzy? I don't have much patience for that. I'll read a couple of his papers. I've spent all the time talking to Ed I care to. It's like "50 First Dates". You think you've made a point and he's seen your POV and the next day it's like it never happened. Waste of time and energy.

soonerguru
01-24-2014, 11:22 PM
Did anyone throw any hardball questions? Or was it a "feed on the plutocrats" frenzy? I don't have much patience for that. I'll read a couple of his papers. I've spent all the time talking to Ed I care to. It's like "50 First Dates". You think you've made a point and he's seen your POV and the next day it's like it never happened. Waste of time and energy.

Yep. The guy will whisper sweet nothings and lie to your face. Done with that / him.

mkjeeves
01-24-2014, 11:43 PM
Just be careful you don't stray too far from the campaign talking points. The big theme was subjecting everything to close scrutiny. Wouldn't try to shut that down if I were you.

It was an open meeting advertised well in advance that included a floor open to questions. What part of it doesn't pass scrutiny?

mkjeeves
01-25-2014, 12:02 AM
Yep. The guy will whisper sweet nothings and lie to your face. Done with that / him.

Assuming that's true, besides being a liar,

Cite: http://www.okctalk.com/general-civic-issues/34251-okc-mayor-race-2014-a-112.html#post737485

what else do you and he have in common?

betts
01-25-2014, 08:24 AM
I'm beginning to agree that Edgar and mkjeeves have been assigned a task by Ed's campaign: post annoying one line statements and start arguments so that all substantive discussions are buried and the lurkers don't bother to go back and read the earlier posts.

betts
01-25-2014, 08:33 AM
Anybody want to help me do some research? I'm looking for scholarly articles by Heywood Sanders on convention center finances and or subsidized hotel finances and I can't find anything written since 2004. Is there anyone with mad research skills who wants to help me see what I can find?

Midtowner
01-25-2014, 09:15 AM
If you have a kid in college,you can borrow his or her EbscoHost login.

kevinpate
01-25-2014, 09:17 AM
Located a Brookings Institute article by him dated at 2005.
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2005/1/01cities%20sanders/20050117_conventioncenters

Was amused by a quote attributed to him late last year when he was in a city out east.


Heywood Sanders admits that, "most people don't listen to me."
http://www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=41421

betts
01-25-2014, 09:24 AM
If you have a kid in college,you can borrow his or her EbscoHost login.

That's what I did. I'll keep looking. I wanted to find a current article so I could have my son who's getting an MBA at the University of Chicago help me analyze it. He understands all this much better than I and he's being taught by some pretty good economists.

If your most recent article was published in 2005, then that would explain why you consider analysis from 2008 relevant. I'm going to look at that one to see when the data used was obtained, after I finish work today.

CaptDave
01-25-2014, 11:18 AM
Anybody want to help me do some research? I'm looking for scholarly articles by Heywood Sanders on convention center finances and or subsidized hotel finances and I can't find anything written since 2004. Is there anyone with mad research skills who wants to help me see what I can find?

Nothing in the online library at my school after 1991 from Sanders...... but an entire section of the library of recent research on transportation that might be handy. :)

betts
01-25-2014, 06:45 PM
So, I'm reading Spencer's article "Premises and Performances" written for the Economic Development Journal and published in 2005. Some of his data goes back as far as the 1980s. The article is not very technical, and reads more like it is written for people without a degree in economics or business. He references data as far back as the mid 1980s, but does comment on some events occurring as late as 2004. I'm not going to outline the entire article here, but will make a few comments.

First of all, the cities he references are not all very comparable. He lumps places like Myrtle Beach, Omaha and Branson, Missouri with cities like Boston, Chicago and Houston. He fails to acknowledge that these cities are not really competing for the same business. He provides some data without giving us information that allows us to compare it. For instance, he tells us how much convention center square footage has increased over the 15 years before the article was published, but not if the square footage is being used in a comparable manner or how much attendance has increased, if at all. He says "Some public hotels, including the Sacramento Grand Sheraton have succeeded to date in repaying their debt obligations and operating profitably." Some is how many? We're actually only given examples of three hotels that have definitively failed, in Myrtle Beach, Flint, Michigan and St. Louis. Overland Park, Kansas has had to subsidize theirs because profits were not what were anticipated. Personally, I have no interest in a convention in Flint or Overland Park. St. Louis would be OK and Myrtle Beach is not my favorite beach city but I might consider going there. Might.

A lot of the cities Spencer mentions failed to find a hotelier who would finance a hotel. He says this is due to perceived development risks. OK. I'm not really sure what this says except that those cities may be taking a risk in helping finance a hotel or it may mean that it is difficult to obtain financing, regardless of the magnitude of the risk.

He looks at the hotel adjacent to the McCormick Center in Chicago and says that it was not capable of providing a boost in events at the Center, although it was sold as being able to do so. However, he goes on to say, "At the same time, the Hyatt itself may be performing reasonably, supported by the overall hotel demand at McCormick Place and by other business and leisure travelers." OK.

He doesn't know what is going to happen in Denver when he writes this article and says "The apparent specificity and certainty of market studies convey a sense of predictability and limited risk". It is clear he thinks they exaggerate or are not honest with their analyses. He uses an analysis for the city of Denver as an example of one that concluded that the hotel could offer a "room rate of $179 by 2009." I cannot tell you what the room rate was in 2009, but I do know the hotel is financially viable and rooms currently start at $199. So, the consultants were correct in this instance. The hotel feasibility study in Houston had an occupancy prediction that was off by 2% and a predicted revenue per room that was off by $17, both to the negative. However, he goes on to say "While below the market study projections, the Hilton will be able to repay its debt obligations this year (The hotel was completed in 2004 and the article was published in 2005).

What he does say is that if convention business does not increase with the construction of a new convention center, the hotel competes with other hotels in town. That is definitely something to consider. If Oklahoma City's downtown has an excess of hotel rooms relative to demand, that could be a problem. We supposedly do not currently have an excess, although I'm not one to judge. If the hotel is built at a time when there is in fact a deficiency of rooms, then future developers need to be aware of how a convention center hotel will impact room occupancy in downtown.

This is obviously a simplistic summation. What I took away from the article that seems reasonable to me is this:

1. Don't assume you will get an increase in national conventions in your city if you build a convention center hotel. You may not even get an increase in regional conventions. This is where the convention center hotel consultants will attempt to blow smoke up your a**. Make sure their data is very specific to your region and believable.

2. Be careful of how your city is financially entangled in the hotel, especially if your city is overbuilt with hotel rooms.

3. Don't assume the hotel will be a financial windfall for the city - be happy if you break even and get a nice hotel. Profit is a bonus.

betts
01-25-2014, 08:10 PM
I'll critique his convention center article later. The data is older and he makes even more generalizations. He's basically a sociologist in this one, with a little economics thrown in for good measure. And it's obvious what his political bias is as well. Which is all very amusing given Ed's tantrum about the CC hotel study. Mr. Spencer might even be right about what he says, but its so general and simplistic that it's almost pop "science". I'll be interested to see his presentation to see if its more current and specifically applicable to OKC.

CaptDave
01-25-2014, 09:05 PM
Does anyone have any idea what he presented to the High Noon club yesterday? I saw an email stating he would be speaking to them. I would like to know how (and if) his message is altered for different audiences depending on how he is prepped. The two groups he was addressing are very different and may provide some insight.

betts
01-25-2014, 09:14 PM
Sanders spoke to the High Noon Club?

CaptDave
01-25-2014, 09:17 PM
Sanders spoke to the High Noon Club?

I am about 90% sure he did. I am trying to find the email or whatever it was I saw that said he was.

Edit: Found it! I am posting this before watching the video so I have no idea what he said. Hopefully there is an unbiased person that attended the Thursday event and will compare the two presentations for those of us who could not attend.

Twitter:
High Noon Club ‏@HighNoonClub Jan 21
Our guest this week is Dr. Heywood Sanders, professor, author, activist and the nation's preeminent authority on... http://fb.me/2ID4gs9QH

From Facebook:
High Noon Club Lack of transparency exists about risks of proposed convention center, says the nation's preeminent authority on convention centers. Professor, author, and activist Heywood Sanders spoke at the weekly meeting of the High Noon Club January 24, 2014. The Friday meetings are held at H&H Shooting sports, 400 S. Vermont, Oklahoma City. Sanders explained the significant risks associated with massive public subsidies, if not complete public ownership, of a $200 million convention center hotel which soon may be built in Oklahoma City. Mr. Sanders explains his recent statement that "OKC is highly unusual, if not unique, in the lack of transparency and the absence of public information on the proposed convention center and convention center hotel." A question and answer session followed. Video by Maggie Abel


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsYU07H8QMY&feature=youtu.be

mkjeeves
01-26-2014, 06:13 AM
I'm beginning to agree that Edgar and mkjeeves have been assigned a task by Ed's campaign: post annoying one line statements and start arguments so that all substantive discussions are buried and the lurkers don't bother to go back and read the earlier posts.

Sweet. You just stepped up and earned a place to sit with Soongerguru at the libel (and hypocrisy) table too. Noted.

mkjeeves
01-26-2014, 06:25 AM
1. Don't assume you will get an increase in national conventions in your city if you build a convention center hotel. You may not even get an increase in regional conventions. This is where the convention center hotel consultants will attempt to blow smoke up your a**. Make sure their data is very specific to your region and believable.

2. Be careful of how your city is financially entangled in the hotel, especially if your city is overbuilt with hotel rooms.

3. Don't assume the hotel will be a financial windfall for the city - be happy if you break even and get a nice hotel. Profit is a bonus.

Pretty much what HS (and Ed) said at the town hall. Same for convention center expansions. Forget what the Build-It-And-They-Will-Come consultants have to say. History has proven them to be wrong far more often than they are right and the convention market isn't headed in the direction to change that.

Build what we want to use, whatever that is. Not what they tell us to build.

mkjeeves
01-26-2014, 07:07 AM
I am about 90% sure he did. I am trying to find the email or whatever it was I saw that said he was.

Edit: Found it! I am posting this before watching the video so I have no idea what he said. Hopefully there is an unbiased person that attended the Thursday event and will compare the two presentations for those of us who could not attend.

Twitter:
High Noon Club ‏@HighNoonClub Jan 21
Our guest this week is Dr. Heywood Sanders, professor, author, activist and the nation's preeminent authority on... http://fb.me/2ID4gs9QH

From Facebook:
High Noon Club Lack of transparency exists about risks of proposed convention center, says the nation's preeminent authority on convention centers. Professor, author, and activist Heywood Sanders spoke at the weekly meeting of the High Noon Club January 24, 2014. The Friday meetings are held at H&H Shooting sports, 400 S. Vermont, Oklahoma City. Sanders explained the significant risks associated with massive public subsidies, if not complete public ownership, of a $200 million convention center hotel which soon may be built in Oklahoma City. Mr. Sanders explains his recent statement that "OKC is highly unusual, if not unique, in the lack of transparency and the absence of public information on the proposed convention center and convention center hotel." A question and answer session followed. Video by Maggie Abel


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsYU07H8QMY&feature=youtu.be

I watched the first 10 minutes of the video speech and it's the same speech to that point. I have all day training again today like yesterday so the rest of it will have to wait. I do hope the video surfaces of the Town Hall. Ed didn't say much but he did say some things I haven't seen said or attributed to him I hope were captured.

betts
01-26-2014, 08:31 AM
Sweet. You just stepped up and earned a place to sit with Soongerguru at the libel (and hypocrisy) table too. Noted.

It would only be hypocrisy if I had been asked by the Cornett campaign to make sure that anything posted by an Ed supporter was quickly buried on the thread with statements that are simplistic, off topic or illustrate me misunderstanding what was said. Since I am doing this of my own volition and am not trying to bury anything, its not hypocrisy. If me saying you appear to be working for Ed is libel, I will withdraw that statement. You are certainly not doing anything to help Mick's campaign. Let's leave it at that.

GaryOKC6
01-26-2014, 08:34 AM
This guy has manipulated the facts to give the results that he is paid to come up with. There is plenty of information out there for anyone to find. Every major city puts out their own convention numbers and they don't jive with his. I also could not help noticing the "packed house" that was in attendance.



Consultant supports Oklahoma City convention hotel plan

Texas consultant Jeremy Stone said Tuesday his research shows the city can support a 735-room, $200 million conference hotel as part of development of a $250 million convention center south of the Myriad Gardens in downtown Oklahoma City.

By Steve Lackmeyer Modified: December 17, 2013 at 10:06 pm • Published: December 18, 2013

A consultant hired to analyze the feasibility of a convention hotel downtown was hit with a blistering verbal attack by councilman and mayoral candidate Ed Shadid, but otherwise found a receptive audience among the remainder of the city council Tuesday.

Texas consultant Jeremy Stone, hired by The Alliance for the Economic Development of Oklahoma City, told the council his research shows the city can support a 735-room, $200 million conference hotel as part of development of a $250 million convention center south of the Myriad Gardens.

Looking at forecast occupancy hovering at 64 percent the first few years of operation, Stone also provided estimates of revenues and expenses for such an operation — but with the caveat he was making no assumptions on the project's financing.

“It is a profitable property at the end of the day,” Stone said. “A property similar to this would make sense in this market.”

Stone noted his report was finished before Louisville, Ky.-based 21C Museum Hotels announced its plans to redevelop the historic Fred Jones assembly plant into a full service hotel. Stone also said hotels downtown are approaching a healthy 80 percent average occupancy.

“We would have expected full service to occur regardless of the convention center,” Stone said. “And as we found out with 21C, the market is showing full service development is appropriate.”

Stone said his research included interviews with hoteliers, officials with the Oklahoma City Convention and Visitors Bureau, and a review of studies commissioned by the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber before the 2009 MAPS 3 election that provided $250 million for the new convention center.

Shadid rebuked Stone as soon as he finished his presentation.

betts
01-26-2014, 08:46 AM
Pretty much what HS (and Ed) said at the town hall. Same for convention center expansions. Forget what the Build-It-And-They-Will-Come consultants have to say. History has proven them to be wrong far more often than they are right and the convention market isn't headed in the direction to change that.

Build what we want to use, whatever that is. Not what they tell us to build.

But that's NOT what Ed is doing. We need a new convention center, I now believe. We have the money. And yet Ed is trying to stop that. Maybe the voters didn't vote because of "build it and they will come"? What if they've been in the Cox Center and they think its a bad building, with bad design? Ed, who didn't even vote, now thinks he's developed some magical telepathy that tells him why the voters voted the way they did? What if our convention center could be one of those Sanders slides under the table when he's summarizing. What if it could actually break even on maintenance or make a profit? We will have no debt service.

Ed is using made-up numbers and made-up drama to mislead. MAPS 3 did not include money for a CC hotel. He's leading people to believe that if we build a new convention center, we will borrow hundreds of millions of dollars. He's telling people that's without precedence in MAPS. That's true, because you can't do it. The resolution has no provision for borrowing money. He's leading people to assume a CC hotel would plunge us into debt and bankruptcy and yet cities like Sacramento, Denver and Houston have actually turned a profit. There is no CC hotel proposal before the Council. He's using his usual lies and innuendo to not only create drama, but to actually try and reverse the democratic process.

Spartan
01-26-2014, 11:57 AM
I would really caution smart posters to not oppose an issue just because Ed has taken it up. An issue only gets Shadided if you let it, and if you're truly intellectually independent, you can separate your feelings on Ed from these issues.

I'm afraid there have been more failures than successes with these publicly leveraged convention hotels. There's a reason the private sector doesn't gamble on these big 600-1000 room ventures.

betts
01-26-2014, 12:28 PM
I agree Spartan. I think the point is that Shadid is implying that the hotel is somehow part of MAPS, that the city is going to end up spending $200 million and that it will borrow that money.

At this point in time, we know we will have the money to build a debt free convention center for $250 million. There is no hotel proposal. How do you oppose a nonexistent proposal? Ed's answer is to make people think its a done deal and somehow a desecration of MAPS. So, lets stop MAPS is his idea. He's not politically astute enough to understand the implications of his actions.

Instead I say: Build the $250 million convention center you have money for and look very carefully at any hotel proposals. If you can't get any hotel chain to build a hotel, even with a subsidy, then it's likely a mistake for the city to do a 100% finance. If you have a chain that will build one with a reasonable subsidy and we have data showing we need more hotel rooms, then it's worth discussing. Discussing. We haven't even gotten that far yet, but Ed's not telling the truth about any of that. And he brought in a consultant who would say exactly what he wanted him to. Fancy that.

soonerguru
01-26-2014, 01:06 PM
Sweet. You just stepped up and earned a place to sit with Soongerguru at the libel (and hypocrisy) table too. Noted.

You did say you were undecided when you started posting here. Since then you have posted nothing but Ed's talking points. How is this anything other than you misrepresenting yourself?

Question: are you a volunteer or paid associate of the Shadid campaign?

soonerguru
01-26-2014, 01:09 PM
I would really caution smart posters to not oppose an issue just because Ed has taken it up. An issue only gets Shadided if you let it, and if you're truly intellectually independent, you can separate your feelings on Ed from these issues.

I'm afraid there have been more failures than successes with these publicly leveraged convention hotels. There's a reason the private sector doesn't gamble on these big 600-1000 room ventures.

And don't be manipulated by a politician whose real goal is to dismantle MAPS3. I've long made peace with the fact I'm never going to be on board with all of the projects. But I don't want to set a precedent for undoing public votes. Pretty simple and how politics works.

kevinpate
01-26-2014, 01:51 PM
Here's an interesting 'what if ...'

There are two petitions filed. One is to vote on language to say a cc can't be built with M3 funds. the other is to end the M3 collection early, roughly knocking out the collection of the amount needed to build the cc.

Are the efforts behind the collecting of the required signatures for each petition being addressed equally in funding and manpower?
If so, is the progress toward the magic number for each similar?

What to do, what to do ... gets rather interesting if only one petition gets enough signatures, or if only one vote changes present status.