I hope that doesn't affect UA too much on LAX-OKC.

Good for F9. Are they trying to get away from WN at DEN???

I booked F9 to DEN for the 4th. It will be my 1st taste at the ULCC brand. Price of ticket was nice and beat WN and UAL by $150 even after all the fees.

I enjoy F9... just wish they'd bring back the fresh cookies :)

They are consistently the cheapest option from OKC to Denver, and usually to most Western cities via DEN. Their current expansion is really fascinating. For a ULCC their product is still pretty good, especially compared to Spirit. They also used to fly to TUL, I wonder if they would restart service to DEN even with competition from UA and WN.

Sadly the cookies (and even soft drinks/water) are a thing of the past. :(

I've seen some aggressive pricing by American on some flights to LA and San Francisco. It seems odd to see American fares right there with WN and FFT.

Good for F9. Are they trying to get away from WN at DEN???

That seems to be the trend. They are pulling down frequencies in DEN to add new routes elsewhere. The model F9 is following now sticks to the 1 flight for a limited number of days per week.


I hope that doesn't affect UA too much on LAX-OKC.

Agreed. Would like to see UA step up. Is there a scope limit on how many mainline can operate into OKC to maintain various staffing levels? Though are they still mainline below and above wing?


They are consistently the cheapest option from OKC to Denver, and usually to most Western cities via DEN. Their current expansion is really fascinating. For a ULCC their product is still pretty good, especially compared to Spirit. They also used to fly to TUL, I wonder if they would restart service to DEN even with competition from UA and WN.

Sadly the cookies (and even soft drinks/water) are a thing of the past. :(

I could possibly see them back in TUL at some point, but I wonder how much they pull from there right now for their flights. They might take a typical ULCC path and just try to pull people down to OKC. The cookies are definitely gone. Maybe Midwest will come back one day...but then again, Republic still has that ERJ in the Midwest livery flying around so they don't lose the name.


I've seen some aggressive pricing by American on some flights to LA and San Francisco. It seems odd to see American fares right there with WN and FFT.

US's folks at work. I spoke to my buddy at AA today and their station today had almost 40% of their seats filled by US Airways code-share passengers now.

There is no ratio of mainline flights vs staffing levels.

Under the old pre merger United ramp/ customer service contract, it was a protection for stations with a monthly average of 1 mainline flight per day. Continental had no such clause.

Ramp and customer service are still mainline employees.

OKC will lose 1 daily flight to DAL with the new schedule release this weekend by WN. Now will be 3 daily with flights at 840, 1125, and 1835.

No real surprise there. I'm sure Southwest is trying to squeeze as many opportunities as possible with their fleet and gate space at DAL. OKC-Texas/gulf passengers can connect thru HOU.

Yeah. I would think WN will hold at 3 per day, but never know.

Another change I missed is STL on WN goes to twice daily.

Another change I missed is STL on WN goes to twice daily.

Is it currently one daily or three daily?

Is it currently one daily or three daily?

One

April numbers are out

http://www.flyokc.com/statistics/April%202014%20Enplanement.pdf

I hope that doesn't affect UA too much on LAX-OKC.

Well given UA's recent financial results, wouldn't be shocked to see them axe the route and focus on OKC-SFO.

Something most airlines never do - complete table recap of all nonstop frequencies by Southwest with this schedule release:

http://www.blogsouthwest.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/here.pdf

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may14/wn.png

New Route - Additional Frequency - Reduced Frequency - Discontinued Route

The table doesn't include AirTran operations, so that is why MDW is showing as discontinued for a few months and why ATL shows nothing until August.

Looks like starting in July, the E170 will begin on OKC-EWR on Sundays only. (EWR-OKC on Saturday). August and September it runs on Saturday and Sunday. For the Saturday Sunday schedule, the aircraft will route (DEN-OKC on Friday night, OKC-EWR Saturday. The Sunday will route from EWR-OKC Saturday night, and OKC-EWR on Sunday).

We are slowly getting better aircraft from United in OKC. The E170 is a baby mainliner - and I think it is more comfortable than most mainline aircraft. SkyWest and Mesa are receiving the newer E175 models very rapidly now, and Mesa has signed a deal with AAR OKC to do heavy maintenance on them here in OKC. So, we can definitely expect to see Mesa want to route the E175 thru here in the coming years. The E175 would be a natural add for SkyWest on LAX and SFO. I wouldn't be surprised to see SkyWest put that aircraft on those routes. The LAX route is underperforming due to AA's growth in the market, and an E175 would be more efficient and also be a step up in comfort, could possibly salvage the route.

Just an observation on airfares - looking for a weekend trip for the wife and I in mid-July. Nearly $600 out of OKC, $470ish out of TUL, and $350ish out of DFW. Now I see why people drive hours and hours. Ridiculous. I wonder is it just a supply/demand issue - rising demand out of OKC (and ability to pay higher fares) which means airlines are going to charge them? Granted our destination city is also small and with limited service, but still.

Just an observation on airfares - looking for a weekend trip for the wife and I in mid-July. Nearly $600 out of OKC, $470ish out of TUL, and $350ish out of DFW. Now I see why people drive hours and hours. Ridiculous. I wonder is it just a supply/demand issue - rising demand out of OKC (and ability to pay higher fares) which means airlines are going to charge them? Granted our destination city is also small and with limited service, but still.

I've encountered similar issues lately... with my in-laws now a stones-throw from DFW, our drive then fly attitude is shifting for family trips. Business trips, of course I'll use OKC.

What do we think (or know?) is the split between business and leisure travel through WRWA?

I've encountered similar issues lately... with my in-laws now a stones-throw from DFW, our drive then fly attitude is shifting for family trips. Business trips, of course I'll use OKC.

What do we think (or know?) is the split between business and leisure travel through WRWA?

I'm the same way and have been for years. When traveling on business, I'll use OKC because someone else is paying. But for leisure trips, I haven't flown from OKC in years.

Just an observation on airfares - looking for a weekend trip for the wife and I in mid-July. Nearly $600 out of OKC, $470ish out of TUL, and $350ish out of DFW. Now I see why people drive hours and hours. Ridiculous. I wonder is it just a supply/demand issue - rising demand out of OKC (and ability to pay higher fares) which means airlines are going to charge them? Granted our destination city is also small and with limited service, but still.
Keep in mind that just because you are finding certain fares from different cities for a specific time frame when you search, that doesn't mean the fares you find are a true comparison of the fares offered. Availability on the flights (how full are they?) plays a major role in what you find. Generally speaking the fares from OKC and from Tulsa are almost identical.

OKC does have a higher average load factor, so as ljbab pointed out, even though the fare buckets are very similar OKC vs TUL, our fare buckets tend to run out faster, leaving the higher priced fare buckets remaining.

For example, and for simplicity's sake we'll use 3 fare buckets (in reality there are dozens of fare buckets for a particular flight).

Airline AB Tulsa and OKC to Denver.

25 $59 seats in Fare bucket Y
25 $99 seats in Fare bucket X
10 $125 seats in Fare bucket Z

Let's say 2 weeks out from date of departure OKC has sold out fare bucket Y and X, leaving just the remaining Z fare bucket

Tulsa, for example, may have only sold out of bucket Y, leaving X and Z. If you looked online at airlineab.com for the same date and time. OKC-DEN will quote you $125, TUL-DEN will quote you $99. The same number of seats were offered at the discount Y fare bucket, you may have just missed them as they sold out faster.

I know it's just anecdotal and not scientific but it's unreal how often the OKC legs of my trips are completely packed and the the other legs are half to 2/3 full. Obviously it's not every but it is often enough that I would think increased frequency or larger aircraft would be warranted. And I fly these two flights at various times of day and days of week. OKC-DFW and OKC-MSP. I've also heard the same thing from other people who have flown these routes. But maybe I'm just choosing bad times.....

I know it's just anecdotal and not scientific but it's unreal how often the OKC legs of my trips are completely packed and the the other legs are half to 2/3 full. Obviously it's not every but it is often enough that I would think increased frequency or larger aircraft would be warranted. And I fly these two flights at various times of day and days of week. OKC-DFW and OKC-MSP. I've also heard the same thing from other people who have flown these routes. But maybe I'm just choosing bad times.....

I've been going to Chicago for business a fair bit lately, and my return flights are always packed as well. Yet we're always cramped in a CRJ with the world's tightest seats.

Fuller flights allow higher fares to be charged and increase yields. The airlines would rather have a CRJ filled with high fare passengers than a mainline aircraft that has to be topped off by discount fares.

Fuller flights allow higher fares to be charged and increase yields. The airlines would rather have a CRJ filled with high fare passengers than a mainline aircraft that has to be topped off by discount fares.But they fly the half-empty mainlines to places like Omaha, Jacksonville, Palm Springs, Seattle, etc. in and out of their hubs. Meanwhile we continue to get the shaft.

But they fly the half-empty mainlines to places like Omaha, Jacksonville, Palm Springs, Seattle, etc. in and out of their hubs. Meanwhile we continue to get the shaft.

It isn't as bad as you think in those markets. Data Elements (http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx) <- This is a very good tool to use. It has data through February of this year so far. This doesn't break down income though per airport or average air fares - the consumer report is needed for that and it is a lot of data to go through. I need to do another review of the OKC market at some point which will help with understanding what is going on.

However, if we look at pure load factor for all carriers at the airports mentioned - just for example...

For the full year 2013, and then YTD 2014
OKC - 77.31%, 70.78%
SEA - 86.07%, 84.93%
JAX - 80.52%, 79.62%
OMA - 81.78%, 80.54%
PSP - 85.65%, 82.37%

So even though I said fuller flights, it is obvious by the numbers that it is incorrect. Out of just the examples thrown out, OKC is well below all 4 of the other markets. So if we can't even fill RJs to the level other markets fill mainline aircraft, why should airlines send the resources here?

Does induced demand apply to air travel? Would more people travel by air if they thought there was more capacity?

Does induced demand apply to air travel? Would more people travel by air if they thought there was more capacity?

At one point I would say it did some. These days though it is all dollar driven as well as destination offering. Nonstop and cheap is how people want it.

Not really induced, but there is some market stimulation to new service. Mainly seen by Spirit and Allegiant in cities.

OKC does have a higher average load factor, so as ljbab pointed out, even though the fare buckets are very similar OKC vs TUL, our fare buckets tend to run out faster, leaving the higher priced fare buckets remaining.


Exactly what I'm seeing. Looking at a few weekend trips this summer, and AA often only has V or higher fare class available - nothing at all in the cheaper buckets (GQNOS). It's got to be similar with the others as with the reduced consolidation, they've all jacked up their fares. I suppose this is our new reality for the time being.

I'm waiting for confirmation from Allegiant, but it would appear they are gone effective August 12th. Nearly every other market, including Tulsa, has had the full winter schedule loaded in already. If this is the case, the Florida curse from OKC continues.

That's unfortunate. Flights are always full from what I hear, but if people aren't buying some of the other products they offer, our ancillary revenue contributions probably suck.

Yeah. Someone on Wikipedia said they are gone, but I want to make sure. Since they likely didn't check with G4 first and just went off the published schedule.

Based on the loads I've seen it isn't for lack of people, its for lack of people buying the extras which is what they require.

Yeah. Someone on Wikipedia said they are gone, but I want to make sure. Since they likely didn't check with G4 first and just went off the published schedule.

Based on the loads I've seen it isn't for lack of people, its for lack of people buying the extras which is what they require.

When you say extras, what do you mean? Like snacks and drinks on the plane?

When you say extras, what do you mean? Like snacks and drinks on the plane?

That's the start of it. I believe Allegient's model is built on people paying for luggage, better boarding, better seating, etc. Am I right?

That's the start of it. I believe Allegient's model is built on people paying for luggage, better boarding, better seating, etc. Am I right?

Allegiant's model is more of a vacation package company that has airplanes.

They subsidize their lower fares thru vacation packages, hotels, and rental cars. Instead of a vacation package company buying seats on an airline, they have their own planes to do it on.

If a market fails to buy packages and only buys the base fare, they will lose money.

Allegiant's model is more of a vacation package company that has airplanes.

They subsidize their lower fares thru vacation packages, hotels, and rental cars. Instead of a vacation package company buying seats on an airline, they have their own planes to do it on.

If a market fails to buy packages and only buys the base fare, they will lose money.

That makes more sense. I wish I would have known that, I would have booked the rental car and hotel through them. Although my $1,000 trip to Florida probably wouldn't have helped a ton.

http://www.flyokc.com/statistics/May%202014%20Enplanement.pdf

Nice uptick for May.

Will wait for June numbers to confirm trend reversal. Probably just playoff related.

Too good not to post. Hail storm hits Envoy Aircraft pulling away from Abilene Regional Airport yesterday... needless to say the flight was later canceled

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3hPK-dyfXM

^^It was a weird storm. Tennis ball size hail hit the east side of town (airport and zoo, unfortunately killed flamingos). I live on the west side and ours was pea size at most.

That means the worst of the hail core went over the east side of town. You got lucky.

I was in Lawton on Father's Day visiting my dad and noticed some interesting planes coming into the airport, after checking Flight Aware this morning, it appears there were two United 737s (one from Louisville and one from Philadelphia) and a Delta 757 from Houston Hobby. Anyone know why? I was thinking it has something to do with the 600 illegal immigrant children that are coming into Ft. Sill.

United (UA) #1881 ? FlightAware (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL1881)
United (UA) #1885 ? FlightAware (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL1885)
Delta (DL) #8967 ? FlightAware (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL8967)

Troop charters. I've also heard a lot of oil/energy charters in Lawton lately. But those are mostly on 50 seaters.

I was picking up a family member on 6/9 and on the flight boards, I saw a line for a flight coming in from Pittsburgh, PA (I think). It struck me as odd because I've never seen service to/from there. Is there any way to find out what was going on and if it was just a diversion or something else entirely?

Thru flight. For example flight 123 PIT-ORD-OKC will show on the board as:

Cool Airways 123 Pittsburgh
Cool Airways 123 Chicago Ohare

So does anyone know if the Allegiant announcement is official? If so, that really blows as a broke college student with family in Florida. It was ridiculous how much cheaper they were than the competition (typically 250$ r/t or so), not to mention nonstop. It'd be one thing if Allegiant was doing a nationwide scaledown, but lately it seems to be quite the opposite: They're buying new aircraft right now, presumably for expansion. (http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6102402/)

You've got to wonder how Tulsa (And XNA, for what its worth) are able to retain their service while OKC couldn't make it work. While I understand the whole premise of them making a lot of their profit off of hotel/vacation add-ons, I don't see what makes the Tulsa market so much different (and apparently more profitable) than OKC.

Allegiant sent over a statement that the service will probably return in the Spring. So they will not have winter service in OKC this year.

Tulsa Int'l Airport closed, landing lights reported out. !TUL 06/043 (KTUL A0652/14) TUL AD AIRPORT CLOSED 1406180221-1406180500EST

Tulsa Int'l Airport closed, landing lights reported out. !TUL 06/043 (KTUL A0652/14) TUL AD AIRPORT CLOSED 1406180221-1406180500EST

Looks like they have a couple inbound flights right now, including a DAL MD-88 in the area. Would imagine they'll divert if it isn't fixed soon.

Well here are the diversions...

Went back to DTW
FLG3570 (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/FLG3570)CRJ9 (http://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/CRJ9)Detroit Metro Wayne Co (KDTW (http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KDTW))Tulsa Intl (KTUL (http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KTUL))Tue 10:21PM EDT
Divert to Wichita
FLG3980 (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/FLG3980)CRJ2 (http://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/CRJ2)Minneapolis/St Paul Intl (KMSP (http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KMSP))Tulsa Intl (KTUL (http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KTUL))Tue 08:11PM CDT
Divert to OKC
ASQ4611 (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASQ4611)E45X (http://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/E45X)Houston Bush Int'ctl (KIAH (http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KIAH))Tulsa Intl (KTUL (http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KTUL))Tue 08:04PM CDT

Arrivals have resumed at TUL.

Well now is as good of time as any to do a mid-year review of where we are are. Just a quick note. The detailed Q1 report is not yet available to break down actual route performance per operating airline, so this is going to be some what high level in that respect. Generally overall though this year as progressed as expected from what I said in the initial post. Here are the details per carrier.

Allegiant Air

Entered the market in November of last year. They will suspend service on August 10th of this year and are said to return in the Spring of 2015. This tends to indicate that the Winter revenues were lower than needed to bring the service back earlier. The airline operated 2 weekly MD-80s to Sanford, FL outside of Orlando. Loads weren't terrible through the first part of the year. They launched end of 2013 with a 71% load factor which rose to 85% in December. In January they dropped to 76%, Feb increased to 86%, and March even better at 90%. Based on this I would expect we'll see them restart at the end of February to catch the beginning of Spring break traffic. I don't expect any additional service until we see loads in the mid 90s.

American / Envoy / American Eagle / US Airways / US Airways Express

The merger with US Airways was of course the big news of last year and the integration will take place through this year and next. As reported, the expectation was that we would be connect to a US Airways hub at some point after the merger. Next month that officially happens with the addition of CRJ-900 service to Charlotte on twice daily service. We will also see US Airways Express operator Mesa take over the AA service to Los Angeles with the CR9s. The rebanking of hubs hasn't completely kicked in yet, so no major changes announced for service to DFW or ORD.

Breaking down performance is hard to do until the detailed Q1 report comes out, but this is out the airline operations look overall. American mainline has a 73.88% load factor for Q1. January they were absolutely horrible at 67% climbing to 81% in Feb be before falling back in March to 73.8%. Envoy Airlines, formerly American Eagle Airlines formerly Simmons Airlines, had a similarly rough Q1. Jan 65.7%, Feb 71.6%, and Mar 75.3%. Envoy provides the lift to ORD and LAX and one of the Eagle flights to DFW.

Dallas/Ft Worth service saw an increase 1 daily nonstop with an additional American Eagle flight, bringing service to 9 daily nonstops. AA ground handling scope restricts stations that do not have mainline ramp employees from having more than 7 mainline departures. Based on this I don't see us ever getting mainline back to Chicago or to CLT. This means we are pretty good candidate to get the Embraer EJets as they come online, especially to ORD. O'Hare service saw an increase to 5 this year over 4 flights during this past winter. LAX has been flat at 2 flights but will see an upgauge to a Mesa CR9 from an Envoy CR7.

Delta Air Lines / Delta Connection and friends

Delta has maintained 100% mainline to ATL and is now all MD-80s for the Summer from the mix of 737s, M88s, and 319s. No major changes expected for the most part. Detroit has increased to 3 daily from the Winter with 1 CR9 and 2 CR7s. MSP remains at 3 flights but the AM flight had an upgauge to a CR9, other two remain CRJ-200s. SLC remains at 3 flights as well but saw the opposite with a downgrade to a CR7 on the AM flight and the rest remain CR7s. Delta mainline had a weak Q1 with both Jan and Feb at 69% full and March at 77% full. I'm not going to bother attempting to break down the connection carriers right now until we get detail results.

Frontier Airlines

Frontier has remained pretty strong in the market. They ended 2013 with a load factor around 90% for the year and had loads as high as 95% for December. January did see dip to 79% but rebounded in Feb at 90.9% and March at 91%. Their schedule remains at 2 daily flights on A319s. No changed expected.

Southwest Airlines / AirTran Airways

Southwest remains marginal in the market load factor wise, but still has nonstop service to more markets from OKC than any other airline. Jan loads were at 70.6%, Feb at 71.7%, and March at 79.4%. This is an improvement of 5% pts per month over last year. The AirTran side of the operation which include MDW and ATL for this portion were absolutely dreadful. In Jan loads were at 54.5%, Feb 53.7%, and March at 67.8%. I believe the MDW flights are the ones most impacting this number, but we'll know more soon. Main impacts being felt is the loss of one daily flight to Dallas Love going down to 3 daily flights - the lowest in decades. St. Louis is up to 2 daily flights again though taking the station to 21 daily flights. WN took MDW service back over from AirTran (FL) and will take over ATL in August. These change overs mean and increase in capacity going from a 117 seat 717 to a 143 seat 737-700.

United Airlines / United Express

Finally UAL or Continental or whoever you want to call them. Is pretty comparable to the others. This is for mainline only, which is limited for this market, had a 74.8% load factor in Jan, 83.4% in Feb, and 76.1% in March. Much of the service though is operated by contract carriers so we'll have to wait for the actual detailed breakdown. ORD remains at 3 with 1 CR7 and 2 ERJs. Cleveland service is dead due to the dehubbing there. DEN, which use to be an all mainline route a few years ago, is all United Express still like it transitioned to this past winter. Relatively same mix of aircraft of CR7s, a DH8 Q400, and an ERJ on the same 5 daily flights. IAH service remains at 10 flights per day. Equipment mix is ERJ - 7, CR7 - 2, 737 - 1. LAX remains one daily CR7. SFO is one daily CR7. IAD is one daily CR7. Finally EWR is one daily ERJ still, but word is that we'll start seeing some periodic upgrades to a 170 on certain days.

I noticed WN going to 1 daily on ATL? Is this true or an error?

Looks like they are, starting in November. Crazy crazy.

Looks like they are, starting in November. Crazy crazy.

What makes that so crazy? Apologies if that's a stupid question and I just missed something elementary.

What makes that so crazy? Apologies if that's a stupid question and I just missed something elementary.

For November and December AirTran was running 72%-79% full on average for the months at the end of last year. Compare that to MDW operating at only 41% and 47%. Yet they cut one ATL flight but keep MDW at 2. It makes zero sense.

Network Scheduling Dept rarely makes sense :)

Network Scheduling Dept rarely makes sense :)

No truer words have been spoken about the industry. LOL

Regarding American: knowing about the mainline restriction, I always wondered if they'd ever consider shuffling planes around. As A319s come into the fleet, would it be particularly outlandish to see an A319 to ORD somewhere down the line, with a mainline space taken from DFW and replaced by large RJs?

Venture -- looks like UAL is going to E170s on one each of DEN and IAH routes. Not sure on the exact timing but booking travel for October and noticed it.


United – Flight 3515
Operated by Shuttle America DBA United Express 1h 22m
Take-off Sat 9:00p IAH Houston, TX
Landing Sat 10:22p OKC Oklahoma City, OK
| Embraer 170 (Narrow-body Jet) | 1h 22m

United – Flight 3455
Operated by Shuttle America DBA United Express 1h 41m
Take-off Wed 6:30a OKC Oklahoma City, OK
Landing Wed 7:11a DEN Denver, CO
| Embraer 170 (Narrow-body Jet) | 1h 41m

Was just about to post this.. Currently see two to IAH in the June schedule.

For the sept and Oct schedule it will be 2 E75 1 E70 2 CR7 1 320 4 E45 to IAH.
DEN will be 1 E70 1 DH4 1 CRJ 1 CR7 1 E45
ORD will be 1 E70 1 CR7 1 E45