View Full Version : 2014 Oklahoma Earthquake Discussion
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Just the facts 06-18-2014, 10:19 AM Jed Castles posted the comparative seismographs from today's tremors and the one from last week - and there was a really interesting similarity in the two - both showed the very small tremor about 20 mins +/- ahead of the bigger one, and the difference in magnitudes were also very similar. One could (albeit naively?) infer that the small one foreshadowed the bigger one, or perhaps the smaller one triggered the bigger one - the small grain of sand moving that, ultimately, made the bigger rock fall :)
Just thought it was interesting.
That was the gist of the Today Show story linked to above; wastewater injection was causing a small tremor which is then causing near-by faults to move - rolling snowball style. If this is ever proven (and I am sure it will be) the long-term liability of oil companies is going to be off the chart. It is going to make the smoking settlement with big tobacco look like child's play.
Bunty 06-18-2014, 12:39 PM Was there ever given a total damage estimate in dollars for the big one, the 5.6, earthquake?
venture 06-18-2014, 12:48 PM Updated this graphic. Not slowing down at all - by a long shot.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/june14/okquakes.png
OKCisOK4me 06-18-2014, 12:59 PM That was the gist of the Today Show story linked to above; wastewater injection was causing a small tremor which is then causing near-by faults to move - rolling snowball style. If this is ever proven (and I am sure it will be) the long-term liability of oil companies is going to be off the chart. It is going to make the smoking settlement with big tobacco look like child's play.
.....so, there was a 2.7 on the SW corner of the Kilpatrick/I-35 interchange at 5:30am followed by the 4.1 at 5:53am, 3 miles ENE of there.
Now, there was a 3.7 at 9:03am, around Langston and we have yet to see a followup big boy to that one.
Next theory?
Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5
Just the facts 06-18-2014, 01:06 PM .....so, there was a 2.7 on the SW corner of the Kilpatrick/I-35 interchange at 5:30am followed by the 4.1 at 5:53am, 3 miles ENE of there.
Now, there was a 3.7 at 9:03am, around Langston and we have yet to see a followup big boy to that one.
Next theory?
Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5
Umm, I think you need to watch the video because you missed the point. You don't feel the trigger from the wastewater injection. That energy is absorbed by the fault, which then moves - and that is what you feel (just like a shooting victim doesn't feel the impact of the firing pin against the bullet - they feel the result of that).
venture 06-18-2014, 01:06 PM .....so, there was a 2.7 on the SW corner of the Kilpatrick/I-35 interchange at 5:30am followed by the 4.1 at 5:53am, 3 miles ENE of there.
Now, there was a 3.7 at 9:03am, around Langston and we have yet to see a followup big boy to that one.
Next theory?
Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5
We usually never see a follow up to the 3.x quakes, so I'm not sure why you are focused on that. There is some logic to say a very small tremor could trigger a bigger one. However, it is't going to happen everytime otherwise this planet would be a mess. Using your logic would we have a nonstop escalating chain when in reality the pressure is likely being released by an smaller quake. The 5.6 had plenty of foreshocks a day or two in advance including a 4.7 the day before but much smaller ones the same day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Oklahoma_earthquake
The chain you are looking for though is possible...up until the point the pressure is released. We've been lucky so far that they aren't escalating any higher then the mid 4s right now.
OKCisOK4me 06-18-2014, 01:12 PM All very true and good points. I think someone who doesn't work a plethora of hours every week should make a chart representing seismic activity in Oklahoma since January 1st. I'll try to remember to do so after work but I doubt I'll remember to! ;-)
Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5
venture 06-18-2014, 02:42 PM Looks like things are getting a bit more active again looking at the seismograms.
Since the 4.1 this morning...
Remember UTC is -5 right now.
Origin Time (UTC)LatitudeLongitudeDepth (km)Magnitude2014-06-18 19:11:33.02700036.723 +/- 0.6-97.899 +/- 1.34.4 +/- 2.33.6 ML OGS2014-06-18 18:42:26.11400035.977 +/- 0.5-97.190 +/- 0.95.0 +/- 1.73.2 ML OGS2014-06-18 17:35:55.01599935.975 +/- 0.7-97.183 +/- 1.15.0 +/- 2.12.5 ML OGS2014-06-18 17:30:01.49300035.976 +/- 0.7-97.182 +/- 1.15.3 +/- 2.12.6 ML OGS2014-06-18 17:26:33.29699935.977 +/- 0.6-97.181 +/- 1.15.0 +/- 1.83.1 ML OGS2014-06-18 14:42:25.16199935.590 +/- 0.6-97.414 +/- 0.85.6 +/- 1.01.7 ML OGS2014-06-18 14:08:33.85900035.976 +/- 0.4-97.176 +/- 0.86.0 +/- 1.53.7 ML OGS2014-06-18 13:03:50.81400035.709 +/- 0.8-97.440 +/- 1.14.7 +/- 1.92.2 ML OGS2014-06-18 12:57:01.66599935.714 +/- 1.2-97.433 +/- 1.35.9 +/- 2.21.7 ML OGS2014-06-18 10:53:02.41100035.596 +/- 0.7-97.392 +/- 1.35.0 +/- 1.94.1 ML OGS
Dennis Heaton 06-18-2014, 02:52 PM Venture...Terrific graph at #362. Is there a link to it to read the "explanations?" (for us lay folks)
venture 06-18-2014, 03:08 PM Venture...Terrific graph at #362. Is there a link to it to read the "explanations?" (for us lay folks)
There isn't, but I guess I can type one up really quick. :)
So what I did is just go back to 1999, I figured 15 years was a good sample for this. I actually go back farther in my spreadsheet but it just makes the graphic look weird.
The bars are the earthquake numbers by magnitude - the totals for that are represented by the numbers on the far left. The numbers on the far right represent the daily average of earthquakes. Daily average is also tracked with the white dotted line. Overall totals are tracked by the green line. Which 2014 still in progress there will be an obvious dip from 2013, so don't pay much attention to that.
I wanted to put this together because I really don't like how skewed the numbers can be when all we see are earthquakes 3.0 or higher and they talk about hundreds per year, when it is actually thousands. Plus I figure tracking everything helps to spot more accurate trends and such.
One that jumped out at me was on the low end tremors. The little ones under 2.0 have really dropped off when you compare them to the 2.0 to 2.9 tremors. That tells me there is an overall increase in intensity of them. The doubling of 4.0+ quakes compared to 2012 & 2013 (combined) is also very noteworthy. Heck...we are one more 4.0+ away from having more this year than all the years tracked on this chart combined.
Just some observations. Nothing implying anything with this, I just enjoy seeing the actual numbers in front of me and observing trends.
Dennis Heaton 06-18-2014, 03:29 PM Thank you, venture!
zookeeper 06-18-2014, 03:43 PM So the Oklahoma Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Corporation Commission are not doing enough?
Here is the report the Oklahoma Geological Survey put out last February: http://www.ogs.ou.edu/pdf/OGS_POSITION_STATEMENT_2_18_14.pdf
Absolutely not. We have so many disparate surveys, studies, etc. going on without one that is exhaustive, has subpoena power, and can gather all of the evidence from these studies you linked to. That pdf link from OGS is interesting, but only one piece of testimony to a complete legislative special panel.
I stand by my post that Oklahoma needs to follow the Texas example and appoint an official investigative panel. The House Subcommittee on Seismic Activity in the Texas legislature is currently taking testimony from residents in affected areas and from seismologists and other experts. We don't watch other states do things, we step up to the plate and deal with our very specific circumstances.
Only something like the above is going to get to an answer. Much rides on all of this. Possibly more than we can even fathom at the present.
RadicalModerate 06-19-2014, 08:58 AM Back in the 60s, the Denver area was having a flurry of earthquake activity. They decided that the cause was the Rocky Mountain Arsenal pumping waste fluids into the ground that were lubricating a fault. They stopped what they were doing and the earthquakes stopped. I know there are a million objections to the feasibility of calling for a moratorium on fracking and wastewater injection well filling, but it would be interesting to see if this would stop the earthquakes. It would certainly indicate a clear correlation one way or the other.
Bunty 06-19-2014, 12:15 PM After getting a good break from them being so close by, an earthquake centered close to and just east of the Stillwater city limits occurred late this morning, 2.5, according to OGS. Was felt here and lasted about a second. Quakes need to stay away further out in the middle of nowhere.
BoulderSooner 06-19-2014, 01:09 PM I thought Stillwater was the middle of no where? :)
Bunty 06-19-2014, 02:44 PM I thought Stillwater was the middle of no where? :)
And I think I just experienced another quake. Hopefully, it's under 3.0 as well.
But from your response, I gathered that you and perhaps others on here feel that earthquakes under 4.0 in Oklahoma have become so frequent that it presents too much of a bore to continue reporting them here. Instead, reporting should be limited to earthquakes above 4.0 in magnitude, since they aren't nearly as common and so are more noteworthy, while possibly adversely affecting more people.
Of Sound Mind 06-19-2014, 03:12 PM But from your response, I gathered that you and perhaps others on here feel that earthquakes under 4.0 in Oklahoma have become so frequent that it presents too much of a bore to continue reporting them here. Instead, reporting should be limited to earthquakes above 4.0 in magnitude, since they aren't nearly as common and so are more noteworthy, while possibly adversely affecting more people.
Seems reasonable.
ylouder 06-19-2014, 07:13 PM So because we are now having 2417 earthquakes this year (so far ) now under 4.0..and according to usgs we had 2-6 total earthquakes a year prior to 2007. We should all stop recognizing the under 4.0 earthquakes.
Brilliant. I like this way of sticking our heads in the frac sand. What could go wrong?
Bunty 06-20-2014, 01:00 AM Because it would be unusual, I don't mind if someone wants to report that Norman got hit by a 2.5 earthquake since hardly ever do any earthquakes hit Norman inside or as close as several miles from its city limits.
ctchandler 06-20-2014, 09:03 AM A 3.1 at 7:46 this morning. The epicenter was less than a mile from me. Loud, not too much rattling in the house, but the ground shook pretty hard.
C. T.
ou48A 06-23-2014, 04:53 PM Magnitude 8.0 quake just hit Alaska
TSUNAMI WARNING has been issued for parts of Alaska
Bunty 06-23-2014, 10:09 PM Stillwater has had 3 or 4 earthquakes over the period of just 1 hour since 8.53 pm Monday. The first one was 2.7, 4 mi. NNE of Stillwater, and the others probably under 3.0. True, it's run of the mill boring, but while other people may differ, it unusual to me for there to be that many noticeable earthquakes within an hour.
Bunty 06-24-2014, 03:28 AM About the earthquake town hall meeting Thursday: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/commissioner-doak-attend-town-hall-212900180.html
Dustin 06-26-2014, 12:28 AM Did we just have one? Felt like a boom and not a shake.
Plutonic Panda 06-26-2014, 12:39 AM Yessir!
Dustin 06-26-2014, 12:40 AM Just had another little shake.
Plutonic Panda 06-26-2014, 12:47 AM I think I felt two after the initial one.
SoonerBoy18 06-26-2014, 12:54 AM Why am I the only one that never feels these Earthquakes, and I live right here in the metro =(
venture 06-26-2014, 12:57 AM Why am I the only one that never feels these Earthquakes, and I live right here in the metro =(
Nothing down here in Norman. :)
Keep in mind with these "weaker" quakes it can be really localized.
zookeeper 06-26-2014, 01:10 AM There were two quakes just a few minutes apart...
30 minutes ago 3.8 magnitude, 5 km depth
Guthrie (http://earthquaketrack.com/us-ok-guthrie/recent), Oklahoma (http://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/oklahoma/recent), United States (http://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/recent)
43 minutes ago 3.8 magnitude, 5 km depth
Guthrie (http://earthquaketrack.com/us-ok-guthrie/recent), Oklahoma (http://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/oklahoma/recent), United States (http://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/recent)
FROM: http://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/oklahoma/recent
(I love how this site drills down just the Oklahoma quakes)
(http://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/oklahoma/recent)
Bunty 06-26-2014, 01:33 AM Nothing in Stillwater. The quakes and noises from Mon. night and Tues. morning settled down, except for one Wednesday afternoon, a 2.7.
Jim Kyle 06-26-2014, 09:09 AM Did we just have one? Felt like a boom and not a shake.I noticed that one about 12:30; I'm near NW 122 and Council. Single slight shock, as if something heavy had fallen to the floor, and an almost inaudible "thump" sound. I went looking to see what mischief the cat had gotten into this time...
FritterGirl 06-26-2014, 10:08 AM I felt four shakers last night (N OKC/Edmond area near Western.) First one was as Jim described.. pretty big boom as if a slab of earth had literally fallen, then some smaller tremors. A second shift/slam/shake happened about ten minutes later, this one more of a rattle, with two smaller shakers afterwards. All happened within about an hour period. These night quakes are getting pretty unsettling. Not a fan.
rezman 06-26-2014, 10:19 AM I'm in the area of NW 178th & Western and felt nothing. I must have been out hard.
venture 06-26-2014, 01:02 PM Table updated and here are some new charts...
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/june14/okquakes26.png
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/june14/okquakes26-2.png
SSEiYah 06-27-2014, 12:09 AM These graphs are pretty scary. Thats all I can say.
I've been debating in buying an earthquake strap for the 60" TV in the living room in case we get another 5+ mag like in 2011.
soonerguru 06-27-2014, 12:50 AM Table updated and here are some new charts...
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/june14/okquakes26.png
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/june14/okquakes26-2.png
[Jim Inhofe Voice]These graphs prove nothing. This is just naturally occurring activity. Hoax![/Jim Inhofe Voice]
venture 06-27-2014, 12:53 AM These graphs are pretty scary. Thats all I can say.
I've been debating in buying an earthquake strap for the 60" TV in the living room in case we get another 5+ mag like in 2011.
I'm not sure they scary, since it needs to be understood our monitoring of them has improved greatly in recent years. So we are getting data on a lot of sub 2.0 tremors that normally wouldn't be recorded. At least that is what I would assume. Since there are still several weaker tremors like that in the data going back through what I sampled.
Bunty 06-27-2014, 03:49 AM Went to the earthquake town hall meeting in Edmond. It was well attended. There were surely at least 500 people there. The experts still don't have definite answers to what is going on and what to do about it. Correlation doesn't mean causation. People left still frustrated. It lasted until 9 pm. The audio from the meeting's one hour plus question and answer session can be heard here: http://stillwaterweather.com/earthquakemeeting.m3u (http://stillwaterweather.com/earthquakequestions.m3u).
http://www.news9.com/story/25884385/metro-residents-looking-for-answers-at-earthquake-town-hall-meeting
ylouder 06-27-2014, 10:04 AM Thanks for posting audio. I just listened to the whole thing. At this point with other states leading the way in reducing/ stopping waste water injection and the earthquakes dramatically tapering off and ending the only thing stopping oklahoma is greed.
I particularly like the citizens response to the panelists saying that oklahoma should keep this wait and see approach - we truly are being studied like rats.
TheTravellers 06-27-2014, 10:33 AM Here are excerpts from the newsok story, and yeah, sticking your head in the sand will not make it go away. Pathetic...
Edmond earthquake town hall leaves attendees unsatisfied | News OK (http://newsok.com/edmond-earthquake-town-hall-leaves-attendees-unsatisfied/article/4972923) (emphasis mine below)
"Oklahoma Geological Survey seismologist Austin Holland said there is no way to know what has caused the unprecedented increase in earthquakes in Oklahoma"
"Holland said stopping the use of injection wells, which pump water deep underground, would not be recommended from a scientific standpoint because that would rob researchers of valuation data that could help them figure out how to prevent earthquakes."
So is Holland also on the payroll of the energy companies?
venture 06-27-2014, 10:52 AM If they want an independent and honest opinion, they are going to need to find geologists and seismologists that have no connection to either the oil & gas interests or the environmentalists that would be in the opposition. Which means in most cases going out of state or country to find someone.
Bunty 06-27-2014, 11:22 AM I didn't feel it, but another earthquake well over 3.0 at 3.9 near Langston this morning as of 10:09 am. Three More Earthquakes Recorded Near Langston - News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports | (http://www.news9.com/story/25886718/three-more-earthquakes-recorded-near-langston)
Martin 06-27-2014, 05:09 PM i moved a bunch of off-topic political posts to a new thread in the politics forum. go argue there.
this thread is just to discuss the earthquakes themselves and shouldn't get into politics. thanks! -M
Of Sound Mind 06-28-2014, 05:30 AM i moved a bunch of off-topic political posts to a new thread in the politics forum. go argue there.
this thread is just to discuss the earthquakes themselves and shouldn't get into politics. thanks! -M
Thank you.
Questor 06-28-2014, 07:10 AM So I am frustrated at the message OGS puts out there compared to USGS. If you go to the USGS website, you'll see buried on it somewhere is a discussion that they have had proof since the 1970s that waste water injection sites can cause seismic activity. You can also find articles that state they haven proven beyond reasonable doubt that Oklahoma's largest earthquake ever was directly caused by an injection well that was operating too close to a fault line.
Every time I see the same dude trotted out by OGS to talk to the media, he talks in terms of this quake being hard to link to that injection site. I get that, and I know what he's saying, but I find what he's saying misleading. Maybe he has said it, and I haven't heard it, but I don't recall hearing any acknowledgement from OGS that these waste sites can cause seismic activity. We are well beyond some theoretical science here. We know these wells can cause tremors. It would be nice to hear OGS acknowledge that. I feel like they're ignoring that very significant data point by constantly shifting the discussion to "well, I don't know about this specific well and it's correlation to that specific quake...." It smacks of half-truths.
RadicalModerate 06-28-2014, 11:38 PM Here are excerpts from the newsok story, and yeah, sticking your head in the sand will not make it go away. Pathetic...
Edmond earthquake town hall leaves attendees unsatisfied | News OK (http://newsok.com/edmond-earthquake-town-hall-leaves-attendees-unsatisfied/article/4972923)
"Holland said stopping the use of injection wells, which pump water deep underground, would not be recommended from a scientific standpoint because that would rob researchers of valuation data that could help them figure out how to prevent earthquakes."
So is Holland also on the payroll of the energy companies?
We should have already learned--from the founder of Mary Kay Cosmetics (or whomever/whatever)--the dangers of "assumptions". Although "Correlation Does Not Equal Causation" I think your hypothesis is a pretty fair and accurate assumption. But I've been wrong, before, more times than I can count.
Still . . . I do recall, quite accurately, that when the folks at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal, up around Northglen, Colorado, quit lubricating the fault by injecting waste products into it the spate of earthquakes abated nearly immediately . . .
ctchandler 06-29-2014, 11:45 AM Well, another minor "house shaker" at 11:30 am today. Probably in the low 2's.
C. T.
ctchandler 06-29-2014, 12:31 PM OGS says 3.0 and the epicenter was 1.0 miles from my home.
C. T.
Bunty 06-29-2014, 12:36 PM We should have already learned--from the founder of Mary Kay Cosmetics (or whomever/whatever)--the dangers of "assumptions". Although "Correlation Does Not Equal Causation"
Are we really having much luck trying to establish correlation? In looking at the image at the top of the page, there are a lot of faults in far north central Oklahoma. This is another area where a lot of earthquakes have been coming from. But I haven't come across any info to establish that there has been an upsurge in oil field activity there for the last several years.
Bunty 06-30-2014, 03:10 PM The 46 minute audio to the earthquake town hall presentation minus the question and answer session can be heard here:http://stillwaterweather.com/earthquaketownhall.m3u
LocoAko 07-04-2014, 09:53 AM I may cross post this to the politics section, but a new study just published in the journal Science links specific wastewater injection sites to the unprecedented increases in earthquake activity.
BBC News - Wastewater from energy extraction 'triggers US quake surge' (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28128772)
Link to abstract: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2014/07/02/science.1255802
While not the 100% complete smoking gun, findings like this are pretty damn.... damning.
Although thousands of disposal wells operate aseismically, four of the highest-rate wells are capable of inducing 20% of 2008-2013 central US seismicity.
Four of the biggest of these wells in Oklahoma have been pumping around 4 million barrels of water a month to a depth of 3.5km beneath the surface.
To determine the impact of this water, the scientists developed a model that could calculate the way the underground wave of pressure from these wells spread out.
By comparing this to seismic data from the Jones cluster, it was concluded that the injection of wastewater is "likely responsible" for the swarm.
Questor 07-04-2014, 02:41 PM Hopefully it's not political to post articles from Scientific American, USGS, Science, and Cornell lol:
http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/man-made-earthquakes/
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/wastewater-injection-caused-oklahoma-earthquakes
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3819&from=rss#.U7cFeee9KK0
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6142/164.abstract?sid=21636edb-db29-4a6b-9de4-6615284243da
ABryant 07-12-2014, 12:15 PM Another earthquake....12:13 NW OKC
JayhawkTransplant 07-12-2014, 12:18 PM Thank you for posting that--I'm sitting on the sofa with my laptop, doing some work, and it felt like someone large bumped into my sofa. It was a very quick jolt, and not much of a rumble like I've experienced with previous ones.
rezman 07-12-2014, 12:18 PM Wife said she just felt it. She said the couch shook. I had just got up from he couch to let the dog in and didn't feel or hear a thing.
Bunty 07-12-2014, 12:25 PM It was definitely felt and heard in Stillwater with one good sized jolt, believed stronger than usual, stronger than 3.0. Thank God, it only lasted a second, or two. It was enough for the Stillwater Emergency Management Agency to comment on Facebook, "That was a pretty big earthquake, details to follow as soon as we get them."
JayhawkTransplant 07-12-2014, 12:27 PM USGS says it was a 4.3, 8 miles east of Guthrie. There was a 3.2 epicentered around there this morning at 6:30.
turnpup 07-12-2014, 12:51 PM Felt it in NW OKC. Small jolt/rocking motion. The dog came upstairs right after it happened. She's never done that before.
Dennis Heaton 07-12-2014, 05:40 PM Another earthquake....12:13 NW OKC
I checked my clock at the time we felt the jolt on Hefner and Roxboro...12:12 PM on July 12. Too bad this wasn't 12/12/12. That would have been freeeeeaky!
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