This article will be updated and tweaked as needed through the month.


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Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Blizzard Watch | Blizzard Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Winter Storm Warning | Ice Storm Warning | Red Flag Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Wind Chill Advisory | Wind Chill Warning | Freezing Rain Advisory | Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe T-Storm Warning | Severe T-Storm Watch
Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif



Snowfall Forecast Models

GEM Snowfall12Z/0Z NAM SnowfallWRF Snowfall12Z / 0Z GFS Snowfallhttp://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gifhttp://www.grib2.com/wrf/S-PLAINS_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gifhttp://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif

Freezing Rain Forecast Models

GEM Freezing Rain12Z/0Z NAM Freezing Rain12Z / 0Z GFS Freezing Rainhttp://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_144HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gifhttp://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_144HR.gif
Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time.

Are we still going to see record cold in January?

Are we still going to see record cold in January?

Its going to be pretty cold, but not something we haven't seen before.

Are we still going to see record cold in January?

Channel 9's chief weatherman David Payne thinks January will be abnormally cold with low temps not seen in 25+ years. He did mention the possibility of record lows. So that could mean it could get below zero. He showed much of Canada covered with well below zero temps. So far, we'll get 3 shots of it, with the third one the coldest. Hopefully, the TV weathermen won't have to speculate about any blizzards coming.

00Z GFS Surface Temp forecast loop: TwisterData.com | GFS 2 M ABOVE GROUND TMPF Forecast (http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=31&model_init_hh=00&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false)

Pretty good showcase of the cold air moving down. Notice though that after the 15th/16th, The Prairie provinces warm up a good deal so that's going to control any major cold outbreaks for late January if it happens.

Guess I should post this in the Jan. thread since it will be January.

GFS wants to make it snow Thursday morning. Best chances are N/NE OK.

Snowfall maps in the main article above pretty much hit on what Anon is discussing. Amounts are pretty light and generally north of I-40 - ranging form a dusting down here to an inch or two up to the NE. Next chance of accumulating snowfall appears to roll in on the 8th. Fairly light but a general 1-3" Central back to the Northeast. As the precip moves off to the SE, more mixing on sleet will take place over SE OK. North Texas could see some icing on the 9th into 10th, but right now it looks like surface temps should be 2-3 degrees to warm at the surface.

00Z GFS brings chance of accumulating snow (over 3 inches) to much of the state for the Jan 8th and 9th time frame. No real run to run consistency right now though. We'll keep an eye on it.

Arctic air will start pouring into Central OK here very soon. Winds are gusting form the NW in the 20-30 mph range. Temps will fall into the 20s through the afternoon/evening.

Scattered flurries will continue around the area. Light snow is mostly going to remain up in North Central and NE OK through the evening.

Next system comes in on the weekend. Some light precip mostly east of I-35, but also in NW OK. Looks like it'll be mostly rain to light snow. Nothing major at all.

After that we'll have a front come through early week and then setup the next developing storm on the 8th. Moisture will move north out of Texas through the day. By Wednesday evening we'll have very light sleet/snow mix across parts of the southern metro area. Temps will warm though and any winter precip will go to rain. Main area of precip is going to over Eastern OK the way it looks now. This is all based on the 18Z GFS though. One thing that I don't like...it warms things up pretty fast. This is a huge outbreak of arctic air across the country...this cold air isn't just going to move. So I'm not confident in the forecast at all right now.

Just came out of the movies here in Tulsa, and it's snowing!!! Nice dusting:)

12Z GFS discussion...

Weds Jan 8th - Some moisture will work up into the state through the day. Temps will be in that range that it will either be very light sleet or light snow. Maybe...maybe...a half inch of snow at the most.

Friday Jan 10th - Moisture returns picks up significant ahead of approaching storm. Forecast temps are projected to be well above freezing, so this looks like all rain. By 6PM Friday up to 0.25" of rain. By 6AM Saturday an additional 0.75 to 1.00" of rain. Through the day looks like light rain or drizzle, and by 6PM maybe another 0.10" of rain. Warp around moisture works in overnight through 6AM Sunday with about 0.5 to 0.75" of rain as it stands right now. Through 6PM Sunday an additional 0.25" of rain possible. So if this solution works out...we could be talking about some areas getting over 2 inches of rain.

A couple things with the forecast. I'm not 100% sold on the temperature forecast, since we know how well these models have done with that this season. It is also warming places to the north way too fast. Areas of Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan are going to have the deepest snow pack (after this coming weekend) in decades but it warms them up pretty quick by late next week. So I'm a bit torn. Right now lets go with rain, but just have it in back of mind that maybe some change over will occur with the wrap around.

Nice rain in January is a very good thing.

Venture,
We've had a nice discussion at the office today about the GFS' delusional temp forecasts for days 7-10. I'm personally throwing its sfc temp projections for that period completely out the window.

Careful, don't talk smack on the GFS behind his back. He will come with a wrath!

It just got weather nerdy up in here. :D

It's been 20 hours since an update on next week. I'm starved for information! :)

No changes really, still plan on it being extremely cold early next week, chance of light snow showers really anywhere in the state (Sat. night into SUnday), but the more concentrated stuff looks to get cranking in NE OK heading into MO. Right now STL looks to be in the bullseye spot.

Precip chances really start going up heading into late in the week. Right now it looks like rain.

12Z GFS was a touch cooloer, but it also takes bulk of the precip east...well at least along/east of 44.

Friday through 6PM - 0.25" NW to 0.75" S metro area. Should be all rain, but temps are cooled into the mid 30s now.
Overnight Friday through 6AM Saturday - < 0.05" W to 0.15" E of I-35. Rain changing to freezing rain & sleet with temps below freezing over the entire metro area by 6AM.

Not Oklahoma, but I never grow tired of these images...

Few things of interest.
1) Lake Ontario looks almost completely ice free and you can see the Lake Effect bands. Lake Erie is pretty open as well except for the Ontario shoreline and the western basin/Maumee Bay area. Lake St. Clair is completely ice covered.
2) Appalachians are probably gorgeous now with all the snow.
3) Poor Southern Virginia got the shaft. :)

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/1481v1_20140103-VIIRS-Snow.png

Lovely image. My grandmother (at the northern tip of the Finger Lakes) must have some great snow right now.

In the...it could always be worse category...

Forecast for the family back North...Tuesday/Wednesday highs ranging from 15 below to 0 with wind chills 40 to 30 below. Ahhh those were days. ;)

18z model runs bringing in some light snow/flurries into the metro late tomorrow night/early sunday morning. No accumulation except for maybe a smidge of a dusting here and there. the 18Z GFS also takes the Friday/Saturday storm and plops it back down to the Gulf Coast well away from here. So zero run consistency with that.

as far as that weekend forecast goes, sounds like that Green Bay playoff game this weekend will be BRUTAL

It's been 20 hours since an update on next week. I'm starved for information! :)

It's good that TV weatherman have backed off from saying we're in for the coldest weather on Sunday and Monday in over 25 years. But it will still be cold, down to 10 on Sunday morning.

The owner of the business I work for was saying she heard some weather guys saying that upcoming cold air (late January/early February) would be cold air unseen or felt by anyone younger than 40 years. Can't wait!!

The owner of the business I work for was saying she heard some weather guys saying that upcoming cold air (late January/early February) would be cold air unseen or felt by anyone younger than 40 years. Can't wait!!

3 to 4 weeks from now? Not sure how accurate that can be but if it stays dry during that time then bring it on

3 to 4 weeks from now? Not sure how accurate that can be but if it stays dry during that time then bring it on

Don't kill the messenger, lol. I'll be laughing myself if we are in the 50s.

Winter Wx Advisory for the northern 2 rows of counties. Nothing major at all and probably isn't really advisory criteria. :)

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY
1122 AM CST SAT JAN 4 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM CST SUNDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.


* TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


* MAIN IMPACT: ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE KANSAS BORDER. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.


* OTHER IMPACTS: GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. THE WINDS AND COLDER AIR WILL ALSO
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSE TO ZERO LATE TONIGHT.

The owner of the business I work for was saying she heard some weather guys saying that upcoming cold air (late January/early February) would be cold air unseen or felt by anyone younger than 40 years. Can't wait!!

It's an article on HuffPost. Something about an "arctic vortex" or something. The meteorologist who said that is from Florida. And I don't think it was supposed to be 3-4 weeks out, probably sooner than that. We'll see what happens.

It's an article on HuffPost. Something about an "arctic vortex" or something. The meteorologist who said that is from Florida. And I don't think it was supposed to be 3-4 weeks out, probably sooner than that. We'll see what happens.

Same story in the DOK today as well. It is all a matter of perspective. I think the score and size of the air mass is noteworthy. The actual values won't be earth shattering in many areas - definitely not here.

Yep, it's headed your way...we are expecting about 5" of snow here in Aurora today and some more tomorrow and are supposed to be on the back edge of the real cold weather. The low is expected to get down to -5 tonight.

This was taken this morning about 10:00.....
https://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/q77/s720x720/1505656_10200915778647769_784730409_n.jpg

I would to have a big snow fall in okc.

But what's coming is not going to amount to much. Tonight's OKC forecast:

A 30 percent chance of snow after midnight. Partly cloudy early, then becoming cloudy, with a low around 19. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Total night time snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

I would to have a big snow fall in okc.

Bite your tongue.

I am just wanting to say I hate our weather. We go some years and it's so mild there is almost no winter. This year it seems there has been one arctic front right after another. I hate the cold, and just can't get my body used to the really cold temps. I'm hoping that winter goes by really fast and spring weather comes back. I can't wait.

I am just wanting to say I hate our weather. We go some years and it's so mild there is almost no winter. This year it seems there has been one arctic front right after another. I hate the cold, and just can't get my body used to the really cold temps. I'm hoping that winter goes by really fast and spring weather comes back. I can't wait.

The problem isn't the cold so much as the temp doesn't stabilize and keeps doing the roller coaster. Trust me, if it would get cold and stay there...your body would get accustom to it and there wouldn't be any issue.

This snow in NC OK right now is heavy.

Looks like C OK will get some swung around later tonight/early morning. Should be much lighter, but then again the stuff out there right now is heavier than forecasted.

This snow in NC OK right now is heavy.

Looks like C OK will get some swung around later tonight/early morning. Should be much lighter, but then again the stuff out there right now is heavier than forecasted.

A flurry here and there every now and then here in Norman, but nothing like the near foot back home is going to get. LOL Here is what HRRR is tossing out for tonight...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014010501/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

It's been snowing enough in Stillwater for the past hour to lightly coat streets white, with more snow on the radar coming in. Forecast has less than an inch to fall. Still well under that.

From the looks of the snow in Stillwater, more than just a dusting, I had been surprised that the NWS hadn't extended its winter advisory to more counties to the south. But it just did. It now includes Blaine; Custer; Dewey; Kingfisher; Logan and Payne Counties until 7 am Sunday.

Message summary: ...winter weather advisory in effect until 7 am cst this morning...
The national weather service in norman has issued a winter weather advisory for snow...which is in effect until 7 am cst this morning.
* timing: the heaviest snow is expected from around 2 to 4 am. The snow will end from west to east overnight. Lingering flurries will be possible after sunrise.
* main impact: accumulations around an inch or 2 are possible. This will result in slick and hazardous driving conditions.
* other impacts: gusty north winds will create areas of reduced visibilities in blowing snow. The winds and colder air will also create wind chill values close to zero.

Blowing snow coming in pretty good in north Norman at the moment.

This is what it looks like in NW OKC as of 4:25 this morning:

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5499/11772124264_bca6661f3b.jpg

OK... quit sending that cold crap down here. It was 70 yesterday and 30 today WTH

View of the west side of OSU. Temp around 19.

http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/SnapShot.jpg

No changes really, still plan on it being extremely cold early next week, chance of light snow showers really anywhere in the state (Sat. night into SUnday), but the more concentrated stuff looks to get cranking in NE OK heading into MO. Right now STL looks to be in the bullseye spot.

Precip chances really start going up heading into late in the week. Right now it looks like rain.

Facebook weather guru saying he isn't buying the warm up shown by computer models so might be looking at winter precip late this week...Any thoughts on his assessment?

Give the NWS more time to change it's mind. It has revised tonight's low down from 10 to 4, possibly to allow for more snow on the ground than was previously thought. But Tuesday's high still the same at 43.

So . . . It was 7-deg. this am. Here's a shot taken at Lake Hefner when it was about 90-deg. warmer.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1506103_632185113495424_353668781_o.jpg
It helps to warm me up and put things in perspective.

(I hate cold weather. Almost as much as I hate anything over 90. =)
(My "comfort zone" is between 42-deg. and 80-deg. which make me a wuss.)

Every time I hear how cold it is up at International Falls, or Duluth, Minnesota, I think how tough people must be up in Dog River, Canada.
Or even up around Possum Lodge.

Ulb08XsjLTs&list=PLsuyEi_jHa0vDIBDbgfOBbWJ0PUiWWMfZ&index=17

Since the beginning of December, it seems all storms do not get established until being east of OK. This has been the pattern for a while now, with a few exceptions. Moisture return and storm track have been unfavorable this winter, thus far.

I think this has to do with ongoing drought conditions in much of W TX and W OK, in addition to overall jetstream patterns.


Looking long range into January, it appears that once again storms are not ramping up until they are just east of the state. We could be in for a dry and rollercoaster temperatured remainder of winter. I was really hoping to get a good snowstorm or two in OK this season, but right now it just doesn't look promising on any front.

I was noticing the same thing, which is why nothing has been posted about the next few storms - that all get going once they pass OK. Though the 12Z GFS does seem to bring in a good round of rain on Friday...but still too warm for any snow.

from twitter land:

"Southwest Airlines agent says the fuel lines at Midway Airport are frozen, so they can't fuel planes trying to leave."

from twitter land:

"Southwest Airlines agent says the fuel lines at Midway Airport are frozen, so they can't fuel planes trying to leave."

Well that's not good. However, it isn't like this is cold air that has never been seen before.

Well that's not good. However, it isn't like this is cold air that has never been seen before.

When its this cold the fuel lines can freeze off because of water in the lines that developed from condensation.
I have helped thaw many frozen hydro-carbon lines.
Its probably more than anything a personal issue and not knowing enough about how to deal with it in appropriate ways?

When its this cold the fuel lines can freeze off because of water in the lines that developed from condensation.
I have helped thaw many frozen hydro-carbon lines.
Its probably more than anything a personal issue and not knowing enough about how to deal with it in appropriate ways?

Who knows. If I remember correctly, there isn't any truck refueling at MDW and its all buried lines under the ramp. Everything up there has been a mess for days though. Don't want to get too off topic here, so will stop there. :)

Just wanted to post this, this is freaking awesome!!! I did not even know this happened. It is apparently called a Tsunami Cloud and it was taken from Lake Michigan.

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1/1530406_617415398293608_970703204_n.jpg

Just wanted to post this, this is freaking awesome!!! I did not even know this happened. It is apparently called a Tsunami Cloud and it was taken from Lake Michigan.

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1/1530406_617415398293608_970703204_n.jpg

That couldn't have happened in 2014. Those people are wearing shorts!!!!!

Yeah I noticed that. It either had to be taken awhile ago or perhaps it wasn't taken on Lake Michigan, I don't really know. I got it from this page: Atmospheric Phenomena - https://www.facebook.com/Atmospheric.Phenomena

They really have nice pictures and I've been following them since they had 15,000 followers.

Also is this interesting photo of America freezing over...

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/19bp742mhljdqgif/ku-xlarge.gif

To our weather guys...I have to travel over to the Poteau area tomorrow for the day, and heading back tomorrow night. I see some reports that there may be freezing rain, sleet for the Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas corridor for that time frame. What are you seeing for that area for tomorrow into tomorrow evening? Thanks

Since the beginning of December, it seems all storms do not get established until being east of OK. This has been the pattern for a while now, with a few exceptions. Moisture return and storm track have been unfavorable this winter, thus far.

I think this has to do with ongoing drought conditions in much of W TX and W OK, in addition to overall jetstream patterns.


Looking long range into January, it appears that once again storms are not ramping up until they are just east of the state. We could be in for a dry and rollercoaster temperatured remainder of winter. I was really hoping to get a good snowstorm or two in OK this season, but right now it just doesn't look promising on any front.

Does this mean you are disagreeing with the forecasts of a fair amount of rain later this week I keep hearing about?