PennyQuilts
01-26-2014, 09:58 PM
WHOA!!! The wind just hit. Roaring.
View Full Version : General Weather Discussion - January 2014 PennyQuilts 01-26-2014, 09:58 PM WHOA!!! The wind just hit. Roaring. venture 01-26-2014, 10:50 PM Hang on tight. :) http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustarrows.gif Ginkasa 01-26-2014, 11:34 PM I had to get fuel before heading home. That was fun. Anonymous. 01-27-2014, 02:13 PM Beginning of the potential storm has moved into short term window. Looking at Sunday heading into Monday for timing (right now makes storm multi day event with secondary storm behind it - however, long-range models tend to do this and then evaporate secondary system once event time gets closer.) Right now it looks like ice with snow follow-up. Potentially significant snow at this time. okcboomer 01-27-2014, 02:15 PM Significant meaning 1 to 2 inches? Lol OKCisOK4me 01-27-2014, 03:16 PM Beginning of the potential storm has moved into short term window. Looking at Sunday heading into Monday for timing (right now makes storm multi day event with secondary storm behind it - however, long-range models tend to do this and then evaporate secondary system once event time gets closer.) Right now it looks like ice with snow follow-up. Potentially significant snow at this time. When are you talking about? Next Monday and Tuesday? My weather app shows thunderstorms on Monday, rain/snow mix Tuesday. venture 01-27-2014, 05:27 PM Band of very light snow moving south from Northern OK. Nothing of any substance expected. OKCisOK4me 01-27-2014, 06:26 PM Sho nuff!!^^ Anonymous. 01-27-2014, 06:30 PM When are you talking about? Next Monday and Tuesday? My weather app shows thunderstorms on Monday, rain/snow mix Tuesday. This forum is a little more in-depth than weather channel apps. The only things useful on those are radar, alerts, and general temperatures. OKCisOK4me 01-27-2014, 06:47 PM This forum is a little more in-depth than weather channel apps. The only things useful on those are radar, alerts, and general temperatures. If this thread is in depth then you need to be more specific than you were in the post and not assume to know that we can read your mind so that's besides the point. And screw TWC! Anonymous. 01-27-2014, 07:27 PM I am not sure what you need? I stated general time frame and precip type as it looks at current. General winter storm shaping up for early next week. Do you need snow totals in your backyard? Because that isn't happening 7+ days out. Things will change many times each day until the event, just keeping check this thread as we get closer, things will get more specific. Anonymous. 01-27-2014, 08:32 PM http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png This is where light snow is falling and accumulating. venture 01-28-2014, 12:42 AM Well its been awhile since we were able to do one of these, but since Anon tipped it off...here we go. First up, 00Z GFS discussion from this evening. Keep in mind things are still fluctuating but there are signs of a storm system early/middle of next week that we need to watch out for. First off, through tomorrow morning. Chance of light snow from NW into C OK. Little to no accumulation due to just how dry it is. Then we are mostly dry until Saturday, at least for SE OK, which will see some light precip down there. Should be rain. Midweek Storm Discussion Moisture starts increasing on Monday from the south. Temps appear to mainly be in the mid 30s right now. Main storm system will transition near or south of the Red River it appears which will keep cold air in place. Reinforcing shot moves in on Tuesday as temps will fall most of the day into the 20s and then the single digits (at least in the North) by Wednesday morning. No real rebound for the duration of this storm. First above freezing day may be Friday or Saturday but next dumping of arctic air pours into the country next weekend. Upper air temp profiles will be changing during this time period which of course dictates precip mode. Monday 6PM - Rain w/ possible sleet mix Tuesday 12AM - Sleet w/ rain mix Tuesday 6AM - Rain/Sleet Tuesday 6PM - Snow w/ some sleet Accumulations of precip look like this, OKC metro only... Through Mon 6PM - Trace N of I-40, 0.05-0.1" I-40 and south. Mon 6PM to Tues 12AM - 0.05-0.1" most areas Tues 12AM to Tues 6AM - 0.25-0.35" most areas. Tues 6AM to Tues 6PM - 0.50-0.75" most areas. After 6PM Tuesday - Precip out of the area. So as we put these together, this solution doesn't show a snow storm in the Metro. It is also borderline in some areas for an ice storm, however we know how that normally plays out. Right now the freezing line is forecast to be along the KS border by 6PM Monday when the precip starts to increase initially. By Midnight/12:01AM Tuesday it is roughly on an Elk City - Enid - Bartlesville line. At 6AM Tuesday it is right along I-44 in the Metro down to the SW to about Chickasha and then wiggles around going back to the W and SW. By 6PM Tuesday it is through all but SE OK for the most part. So based on this timing it looks like we'll start with 0.3 to 0.45" of non-freezing rain through 6AM Tuesday - definitely welcome. Then it gets potentially problematic based on the position of the freezing line that we could see some areas with 0.75 to 1.10" of liquid which would be all ice/freezing rain. Winds appear to be 20-25 mph with higher gusts during the day on Tuesday. So as of right now, this would set up a a pretty decent ice storm for the area if this verifies. Run to run model consistency isn't locked in, but it does have a significant storm system in the area during this time frame on the last 3 or 4 runs so far. So as everyone knows, that is when I start taking a serious interest. We'll need to definitely monitor this as we get closer. Based on the ability for the arctic air to move in easily this year, I really don't see that being an issue in being in place with this setup. Ideally though I would really like to see the upper air temps get lower so we can avoid a serious situation with ice and just deal with the snow. A foot of snow with 20 mph winds is a lot better than an inch of heavy ice on everything with the same winds. crimsoncrazy 01-28-2014, 01:48 AM Parking lot is almost covered with snow at Reno and Morgan. venture 01-28-2014, 01:55 AM Area of snow will continue to be south over the Metro. About a half inch to an inch max expected from it. No major issues. http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jan14/28-1.png s00nr1 01-28-2014, 06:29 AM This map shows accumulated snow depth as of Monday, Feb 10th at 12pm. Keep in mind that this will not verify but the GFS does continue to forecast multiple storms for next week (following the one aforementioned by Venture). http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/01/28/06/GFS_3_2014012806_F324_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png OKCisOK4me 01-28-2014, 10:26 AM This map shows accumulated snow depth as of Monday, Feb 10th at 12pm. Keep in mind that this will not verify but the GFS does continue to forecast multiple storms for next week (following the one aforementioned by Venture). http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/01/28/06/GFS_3_2014012806_F324_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png Is this suppose to be the Monday that Anonymous was talking about or is he referring to next Monday, the 3rd? I'm suppose to fly in from Houston that night on a return trip from Cancun. s00nr1 01-28-2014, 10:32 AM I believe Anon was referring to 2/3. This map reflects snowpack as of 2/10. Anonymous. 01-28-2014, 10:40 AM Yes. February 3rd storm is still on track at this time. GFS speeding it up a bit. OKCisOK4me 01-28-2014, 10:42 AM As long as my flight on 2/10 is not delayed I'm happy. I'd hate to spend the night in Houston Hobby... venture 01-28-2014, 02:03 PM 12Z Euro Discussion (takes us through Tuesday evening)... Through 6AM Tuesday Moisture precip start to overrun Oklahoma by early Tuesday morning. Through 6AM looks like Central OK could see up to 0.1" of precip, heavy as you go SW towards Lubbock. Temps at this time are forecast to be in the low to mid 30s with the freezing line back over NW OK. Looks like liquid over the Metro and more of a rain/snow mix or all snow in West Central OK. For this time period looks like up to 1" of snow for an area north of a line from Mangum-Hobart-Cordell-Weatherford-Watonga and then West/South of a line from Watonga-Fairview-Woodward. 6AM Tuesday through 12PM Tuesday Precip begins to increase significantly over the state. Outside of NE OK, everyone will be near or above a quarter inch of liquid during this period. Euro has two main precip shields. One is over SC/SE OK down into the Dallas area and NE TX. The other is over Western OK down to West Texas. In between there might be a zone of lighter precip, generally around that 0.25" amount that would include cities line Ponca, OKC, Norman, Duncan and back north towards Shawnee and Okmulgee. While we know pin point accuracy on amounts isn't reality on models this far out, here it what it shows. OKC area roughly along/west of I-44 and I-35 have 0.25 to 0.375". East of that area will be 0.175 to 0.25" As you get up towards Stillwater down another category to about 0.1 to 0.175". Southwest Oklahoma will have precip amounts ranging from 0.25 around Chickasha to nearly 1 inch by Hollis and west of Altus. Freezing line will be running from roughly OK/TX border along I-40 to El Reno and then jog north to just south of a Enid to Perry line and then NE towards Bartlesville and Joplin. Snowfall amounts for this time period are roughly 1-2" west of I-35, 2-3" from OKC to El Reno. Then increasing from there going west to a max around 6-7 inches from Clinton to Elk City and south to the Quartz Mtn SP area. 12PM Tuesday through 6PM Tuesday Precip begins to move off. Looking at 0.25 to 0.375" along the I-44 corridor and south, including Norman, Tulsa, and Lawton. Some heavier precip back in East OK from McAlester to Muskogee to Bentonville. North of that area looks like 0.175 to 0.25" for the rest of the Metro area. Freezing line at this time will be running along a Frederick-Duncan-Ada-McAlester line. Additional snowfall amounts during this time period are roughly 2-3" for most of the Metro area and up to 5-6" in far EC OK. Quick 12Z GFS Note... It is continuing to show a storm system coming through at the same time period and has been pretty consistent with that. Amounts are generally in the half inch to 0.75" range for much of the Metro area. Forecast soundings still aren't completely clear on precip type. It does keep the surface above freezing for the duration of the precip but soundings indicate a mix of rain/sleet is very possible. I think we are still a few days away from really getting a good read on precip types. Bottom line... Will there be a storm coming through Tuesday? Yes. Will there be conditions to justify winter storm headlines? Yes. Do we know exactly what mode the precip will be in (rain/sleet/snow)? No. Potential is there, we need to monitor it. Bread and milk watch. Plutonic Panda 01-28-2014, 02:43 PM As long as my flight on 2/10 is not delayed I'm happy. I'd hate to spend the night in Houston Hobby...They have a Pappadeaux there man, WHAT MORE DO YOU NEED!? ;) venture 01-29-2014, 03:13 AM While my sleep schedule is screwed up, here is an update based on the 00Z Euro early this morning. :) Sunday Feb 2nd Potential is increasing for a rain/snow scenario across the state. 00Z GFS picked up on this a bit with a quick moving system dropping several inches of snow in Western Oklahoma. Euro on this latest run as also picked up on this but is more around the I-44 area (because storms need that highway to figure out where to go). Precip moves into Central OK by 9AM. Quick time frame forecast... 6AM to 9AM: Freezing line runs Ardmore-McAlester-Fort Smith. Around 0.1" of precip in the Metro mainly from Downtown OKC down through Norman and back tot he SW. Should be mostly snow so around an inch of that unless we see rain/sleet mixing in. 9AM to 12PM: Freezing line stationary to moving NW very slightly from Wichita Falls-Ada-Fayetteville AR. Around 0.1" of precip NW Metro to 0.175 to 0.375 in the far S and SE Metro area and also just south of I-44 back towards Lawton. Appears to be snow in the Metro. Less than an inch north of I-44, around an inch at I-44 and 2-3" from Lawton-Chickasha-Norman-Shawnee and south about 50 miles of that line. 12PM to 3PM: Pocket of below freezing area lingers just over the I-44 corridor and where ongoing precip is, elsewhere should warm up a couple degrees. Maybe another 0.1" of an inch of precip Along/south of I-44. This would do another 1-2" from Chickasha to Norman to Tulsa. After 3PM: Light flurries/freezing drizzle/drizzle expected, very light accumulation. So worst case scenario right now looks like some people could get a quick shot of 3-5 inches of snow, mainly south of I-44. North of I-44 looks to be an inch or two and this is per Euro. The GFS was more to the NW of this are, so the exact location isn't set in stone yet. Tuesday Feb 4th/Wednesday Feb 3rd Storm Euro goes much further south with this latest run. Light precip starts over area west of I-35 by Noon on Tuesday and looks to be mostly snow. By 6PM Tuesday general area of 1-2 inches of snow south of a Altus-Lawton-Ada line with possible 2-3" around Duncan and back SW to Wichita Falls. Through midnight another few inches of snow south of the same line. Around an inch on the north side of it to 2-3" along the river. Some heavier amounts, up to 4-5" in far SE OK also shown. By Wednesday morning is brings totals up to around 1-2" in an area from Hobart-Chickasha-Norman-Wewoka-Fort Smith. Then 2-3" for Altus-Lawton-Pauls Valley - McAlester. 3-4" for Childress-Frederick-Duncan-Ada. 4-5" for Vernon TX-Ardmore-Durant. Then in far SW OK some areas 6 to 10 inches total. As I said earlier, things will bounce around a bunch and we've come to expect that. This will get further tuning as we get closer. 06Z GFS Quick Discussion Sunday's potential snowfall is also still showing up. It is moved closer to the I-44 area but offset from Euro by about 40 miles further to the North. Not much to really add to the specific except amounts for the OKC area would be higher per GFS over Euro. Depending on where things setup, we could definitely see a band of snow from SW OK up through nearly all of the Metro area and up to the NE of 3-6 inches. Timing looks to be the same as Euro so will leave it there. As of right now, the run is only out through this coming Sunday, so no comments to add for storm early/mid next week. Anonymous. 01-29-2014, 07:36 AM This morning's GFS improves chances of snow for Sunday, but kills the large storm for Tuesday/Wednesday. We'll see what next run goes with. adaniel 01-29-2014, 09:31 AM Not sure if this should go here, but I just got off the phone with my aunt in the Atlanta suburbs who says it is nothing short of a sh*tshow down there due to the snow. People (especially those from the NE or Midwest) oftentimes laugh at southerners who can't handle snow, but this situation is no laughing matter. People had to spend the night in grocery stores, schools, their cars, etc. Complete transportation breakdown over this. Iced-in students seek refuge in schools | www.ajc.com (http://www.ajc.com/news/news/local/iced-in-students-seek-refuge-in-schools/nc58R/) Anonymous. 01-29-2014, 09:41 AM Goes to show you how different criteria effects different areas. Nearly the entire Gulf coast was under 'Winter Storm Warnings' for the last couple days for just 1-3 inches of snow. I think Atlanta got somewhere around 2-3 inches and the entire city shut down. People up north make memes and other jokes about southern states being affected by little winter precip. But the city infrastructure and most importantly, the citizens do not know how to act/handle the winter conditions. Here in OK, we might as well be thrown into the same boat, schools and offices often times do not cancel and plan ahead of time. Anonymous. 01-29-2014, 10:26 AM Latest GFS moves precip. chances to Monday, and starts to bring Tuesday - Wednesday storm back NW. Also long range indicates doomsday storm for that following weekend. s00nr1 01-29-2014, 10:39 AM What the ECMWF is putting out for the next 7-10 days is nothing short of comical. Anywhere between 12 and 26" of snow for a large swath of the South and Midwest. Soonerman12 01-29-2014, 10:57 AM ANON and Venture.... What do you think the likelihood of a major storm happening here in the Tulsa area. I noticed the NWS hazardous weather outlook mentions they think there might be a pretty significant snow/ice storm next week.. What do you think? LakeEffect 01-29-2014, 11:28 AM What the ECMWF is putting out for the next 7-10 days is nothing short of comical. Anywhere between 12 and 26" of snow for a large swath of the South and Midwest. Comical, but I love it. SoonerDave 01-29-2014, 11:34 AM Goes to show you how different criteria effects different areas. Nearly the entire Gulf coast was under 'Winter Storm Warnings' for the last couple days for just 1-3 inches of snow. I think Atlanta got somewhere around 2-3 inches and the entire city shut down. People up north make memes and other jokes about southern states being affected by little winter precip. But the city infrastructure and most importantly, the citizens do not know how to act/handle the winter conditions. Here in OK, we might as well be thrown into the same boat, schools and offices often times do not cancel and plan ahead of time. From what I've seen, Anon, what's really got Atlanta crippled is the ice. I've driven that stretch of I-75 through the heart of Atlanta a few times, and it is eight lanes of misery on a good day. I can't (and don't want to) fathom what that must be like on ice in that area. One thing I will say, however, is that we here in OK have gotten a good deal more, well, "proactive" I suppose about winter weather. We've had some close calls on closing things at times, but I honestly think that with comparable advance warning, we wouldn't be in quite the same shape as Atlanta. Another thing that occurred to me is how Birmingham would be faring in all this, as parts of it along the south (toward the suburb of Homewood) and southeast regions of town are more or less sculpted into and along some really beautiful rolling hills (real rolling hills, mind you :) ) with steep grades that can be a little dicey even in just rain - can't imagine what they'd be like in ice and/or snow. s00nr1 01-29-2014, 12:26 PM A look at the 12Z ECMWF for next Tuesday at 6pm: 6470 venture 01-29-2014, 12:41 PM To tag on to S00nr1's post showing total precip, here is the Euro output for snowfall and also the surface temps for that same time... http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jan14/FebSnow-1.png Surface Temps - yellow line is freezing line. http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jan14/FebSnow-2.png venture 01-29-2014, 03:41 PM 18Z GFS Updates... Sunday snow - around 1-2" now for the Metro area, heavier southwest. Late Monday/Tuesday storm - 0.1" precip mix of freezing rain and snow. Maybe 1-2" of snow for the Metro area. It does a major shift to the SE...like Louisiana and Mississippi southeast. I'm not changing anything yet, but we know how these things love to jump around. Easy180 01-29-2014, 04:21 PM So are any of the models getting the metro over 4 inches total for Sun-Tues? Can we rule out an ice storm? Just wondering if it is mostly safe to say this won't be Armageddon venture 01-29-2014, 04:32 PM So are any of the models getting the metro over 4 inches total for Sun-Tues? Can we rule out an ice storm? Just wondering if it is mostly safe to say this won't be Armageddon There just aren't many to go off of right now until we really start getting with in 72-84 hours of the day we need to forecast for. The ECMWF runs twice a day and the one posted above was from this afternoon, so it definitely isn't out of date already. GFS runs 4 times a day, but can flop greatly between runs. We can't rule anything out right now. Uncle Slayton 01-29-2014, 05:09 PM Venture, did you hear the guy in Atlanta at the press conference throwing the Wx guys under the bus? "They told us Atlanta wasn't going to get hit..." damonsmuz 01-29-2014, 05:23 PM Heck, we have a hard enough time forecasting snow totals 1 day out.... this far out still very tricky. The answer lies in the ensembles. :) bchris02 01-29-2014, 05:34 PM Latest GFS moves precip. chances to Monday, and starts to bring Tuesday - Wednesday storm back NW. Also long range indicates doomsday storm for that following weekend. What do you mean Doomsday storm? Plutonic Panda 01-29-2014, 06:45 PM What do you mean Doomsday storm?Tornados that rain down Walmart's man...... hurry, get of OKC while ya still can... I'm just messing with ya bro haha ;) gjl 01-29-2014, 07:53 PM Get ready for this again. http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/800x600q90/513/vohb.jpg (https://imageshack.com/i/e9vohbj) ZYX2 01-29-2014, 07:54 PM From what I've seen, Anon, what's really got Atlanta crippled is the ice. I've driven that stretch of I-75 through the heart of Atlanta a few times, and it is eight lanes of misery on a good day. I can't (and don't want to) fathom what that must be like on ice in that area. One thing I will say, however, is that we here in OK have gotten a good deal more, well, "proactive" I suppose about winter weather. We've had some close calls on closing things at times, but I honestly think that with comparable advance warning, we wouldn't be in quite the same shape as Atlanta. Another thing that occurred to me is how Birmingham would be faring in all this, as parts of it along the south (toward the suburb of Homewood) and southeast regions of town are more or less sculpted into and along some really beautiful rolling hills (real rolling hills, mind you :) ) with steep grades that can be a little dicey even in just rain - can't imagine what they'd be like in ice and/or snow. I have family that lives in Hoover. My cousin stayed the night at his high school. The roads are completely clogged with abandoned cars. It looks apocalyptic. gjl 01-29-2014, 07:57 PM I am supposed to go to Wichita Thursday 2/6/14 and return to OKC on Saturday 2/8/14. Any idea what I can expect weather-wise for those days? bandnerd 01-30-2014, 05:35 AM I am supposed to go to Wichita Thursday 2/6/14 and return to OKC on Saturday 2/8/14. Any idea what I can expect weather-wise for those days? Meteor. Anonymous. 01-30-2014, 07:58 AM This is what we got this morning. Small piece of energy off main storm system comes out across NW TX into SW OK Sunday night into Monday. Looks like someone in SW to SC to C OK could get bullseyed with a quick 3-4 inches of snow depending on where the band sets up. This sort of shoves off east and falls apart. Main system rolls out from TX panhandle early Tuesday with large precip shield. Right now it wants to hit most of the state with rain changing to snow, snow line looks to be close to central OK (per usual). And the threat of dry slot is very high across western, central, and northern OK. So right now KS looks to be getting in the main snow zone. Going longer range: After that we have a few days break until Friday night into Saturday. Looks like a very large storm at this time and it looks like nearly all snow. The system coming earlier in the week will determine how this one pans out. But as it looks right now, it appears to be significant. Looking even beyond that, another system comes through the following Wednesday. Bottom line, we will likely see multiple storms the next couple weeks, with what looks like temperatures struggling to get above freezing for a long duration. This will only be amplified by any snowpack that settles in. So get your gloves and shovels ready. kelroy55 01-30-2014, 08:29 AM Meteor. +1 Roger S 01-30-2014, 08:36 AM Bottom line, we will likely see multiple storms the next couple weeks, with what looks like temperatures struggling to get above freezing for a long duration. This will only be amplified by any snowpack that settles in. So get your gloves and shovels ready. Bottom line is.... This is seriously impacting the beginning of my 2014 fishing season.... I'm getting to old to fish in the cold! LakeEffect 01-30-2014, 08:39 AM this is what we got this morning. Small piece of energy off main storm system comes out across nw tx into sw ok sunday night into monday. Looks like someone in sw to sc to c ok could get bullseyed with a quick 3-4 inches of snow depending on where the band sets up. This sort of shoves off east and falls apart. Main system rolls out from tx panhandle early tuesday with large precip shield. Right now it wants to hit most of the state with rain changing to snow, snow line looks to be close to central ok (per usual). And the threat of dry slot is very high across western, central, and northern ok. So right now ks looks to be getting in the main snow zone. Going longer range: After that we have a few days break until friday night into saturday. Looks like a very large storm at this time and it looks like nearly all snow. The system coming earlier in the week will determine how this one pans out. But as it looks right now, it appears to be significant. Looking even beyond that, another system comes through the following wednesday. Bottom line, we will likely see multiple storms the next couple weeks, with what looks like temperatures struggling to get above freezing for a long duration. This will only be amplified by any snowpack that settles in. So get your gloves and shovels ready. like like like Of Sound Mind 01-30-2014, 09:57 AM http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6zaVYWLTkU s00nr1 01-30-2014, 10:04 AM Call me the contrarian but I think it's still far too early to be confident about next week's potential storms. The Tuesday and Friday systems haven't even come on-shore yet. Not to mention current model trends (both ECMWF and GFS) are bringing warmer air back into the area. Now, Sunday could be a sneaky snow day (2-3" possible) but I think the gun has been jumped in relation to calling for major winter storms next week. Let's get to Saturday before we start hyping this thing up. Of Sound Mind 01-30-2014, 10:11 AM Technically, by definition, any forecasting beyond tomorrow would be moot in this thread... right? ;) Anonymous. 01-30-2014, 10:17 AM This thread is dedicated to forecasts based on latest data that comes in (some multiple times a day). Painting the picture for the different runs is the whole point of forecasting. I don't believe anyone who monitors our weather threads is actually taking each post (especially early ones) to the bank. All you have to do is read the most recent posts in here to see what the latest data portrays. This is why we emphasize "this is how it looks right now". This forum isn't about hype, it is about information and at times close to and during events, it is essentially information in real-time. I personally do believe the southern plains will see a snowstorm early next week, KS is hot spot at this time. OK is in high bust area right now. New NAM moves the Sunday snow chances further east. Putting a band of 2-3 inches from SW to C OK, and a secondary band in SE OK with up to 6 inches of snow. SoonerDave 01-30-2014, 10:18 AM Call me the contrarian but I think it's still far too early to be confident about next week's potential storms. The Tuesday and Friday systems haven't even come on-shore yet. Not to mention current model trends (both ECMWF and GFS) are bringing warmer air back into the area. Now, Sunday could be a sneaky snow day (2-3" possible) but I think the gun has been jumped in relation to calling for major winter storms next week. Let's get to Saturday before we start hyping this thing up. Maybe I'm alone in this, but as a long-time follower on this thread, I think the discussion so far has been a fairly normal "heads up, this may be on the way" kind of discussion. Don't think this round has been unusually spun up or hyped...fully expect a pretty good discussion shortly on that model bringing the warm air back in... I, for one, would be just as happy if it were just a rain event...got Thunder tickets for Monday for what may be the only time this season and I'd really rather it not get iced out :) ou48A 01-30-2014, 10:47 AM This thread is dedicated to forecasts based on latest data that comes in (some multiple times a day). Painting the picture for the different runs is the whole point of forecasting. I don't believe anyone who monitors our weather threads is actually taking each post (especially early ones) to the bank. All you have to do is read the most recent posts in here to see what the latest data portrays. This is why we emphasize "this is how it looks right now". This forum isn't about hype, it is about information and at times close to and during events, it is essentially information in real-time. I personally do believe the southern plains will see a snowstorm early next week, KS is hot spot at this time. OK is in high bust area right now. New NAM moves the Sunday snow chances further east. Putting a band of 2-3 inches from SW to C OK, and a secondary band in SE OK with up to 6 inches of snow. Thanks for what you do...... Readers of this thread need to understand exactly what you are saying about the information that's posted here. Most of us seem to understand that any of it can still change when it still several days away. s00nr1 01-30-2014, 11:15 AM Apologies to Anon for the confusion but I was mainly referring to local on-air mets who are already forecasting snowmageddon 6/9 days out. venture 01-30-2014, 11:19 AM Apologies to Anon for the confusion but I was mainly referring to local on-air mets who are already forecasting snowmageddon 6/9 days out. Morgan was all in hype mode last. That's what I get for leaving the TV on for background noise. s00nr1 01-30-2014, 11:54 AM GFS projected accumulated snowfall through next Wednesday morning: http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_144HR.gif SoonerDave 01-30-2014, 11:56 AM Morgan was all in hype mode last. That's what I get for leaving the TV on for background noise. Yesterday just wasn't your day, was it, Ven? :) Anonymous. 01-30-2014, 12:10 PM Apologies to Anon for the confusion but I was mainly referring to local on-air mets who are already forecasting snowmageddon 6/9 days out. No apologies needed, but I misunderstood also. I did, in fact, think you were referring to the posts in this thread. I have not checked out any of the local forecasts yet, so I was unaware they were in bread and milk warning 6 days out. bradh 01-30-2014, 12:24 PM well that map sucks if you live in OKC and want snow |