No, I was more talking about winter storms.

This Friday for most of the state looks wet with rain.


Tonight into Thursday looks like chance of light freezing rain over E half of state. Then temperatures warm with the approaching storm system and we get what looks to be a solid rain heading into our Friday.

INCLUDES OKC METRO AREA

Special Weather Statement
Updated: Wed Jan-08-14 04:35am CST
Effective: Wed Jan-08-14 04:35am CST
Expires: Thu Jan-09-14 04:45am CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Atoka; Bryan; Canadian; Cleveland; Coal; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Hughes; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Lincoln; Logan; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole

Message summary: ...light freezing rain...drizzle...and fog expected across portions of oklahoma late tonight through early thursday morning...
Temperatures will fall just below freezing after midnight tonight across most of oklahoma. Colder temperatures...in the twenties...will develop along and north of interstate 40. Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain will be possible from around midnight to just after sunrise thursday morning mainly along and east of interstate 35...and north of a line from around ardmore to atoka. In addition...areas of freezing fog will develop near the same locations. Some of this fog could become dense near sunrise thursday morning. Light ice accumulations from the drizzle...rain...and fog will be possible on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. This...combined with visibilities of less than one mile at times...may result in hazardous driving conditions across central and eastern oklahoma. Motorists traveling across the region late tonight through early thursday morning should use extreme caution.

New GFS pushes rain mostly east of I35 for Friday. This is what most of the storms have been doing this winter. Right now NAM still keeps it raining over most of the state.

A nice cold rain now in Norman. Still 5 degrees above freezing so no icing right now...might get some later as temps drop off a bit.

Venture.... Could you do everything in your power to keep it from starting to freeze until after the KU/OU game tonight? Thanks! :wink:

Venture.... Could you do everything in your power to keep it from starting to freeze until after the KU/OU game tonight? Thanks! :wink:

I'm full of a lot of hot air, but not sure that much. ;)

Well, I tried to make it to my hearing in Poteau. Got to Checotah and hit drizzle. The temp was 36. By the time I reached Gore it was 32-33. Kept going. About 6 miles west of Sallisaw, I-40 was all stopped for them to clear a 6 or so car pile up because of icing on the road. I was about to get off at Sallisaw when I got a call from the courthouse telling me to get home. The courthouse in Sallisaw shut down. Carl Albert State College shut down. It was icing up pretty good in that area with it expects to go on all night. I was glad cause I didn't want to try the Wild Horse Mountain pass south of Sallisaw. I've done it in snow and it can be hairy. I'd hate to try it in ice. I went ahead and had a quick lunch before heading back and there was occasional sleet and a few snow flurries, but mostly freezing drizzle. I hated to not get my business done, but I didn't want to get stuck there either.

Winter Wx Advisory tonight from just west of I-35 through east half of state.

NAM is now onboard with GFS in developing the rain east of I-35 for Friday.

Freezing Fog Advisory for areas west of the existing Winter Wx Advisory. This is for West Central and NW OK until 9AM.

Models still shifting rain east. Looks like once again W and C OK will be missing out.


Long term forecast looks dry and average to slightly above average temps.

Models still shifting rain east. Looks like once again W and C OK will be missing out.


Long term forecast looks dry and average to slightly above average temps.

Boo!

Boo!

You are booing above average temperatures in January? I have to ask why? What good comes from below average temperatures? What can anyone who is active do when there is an arctic outbreak? Do those who sit at home and do nothing other than watch tv like the very cold temps? Just very curious. It's always amazed me how people could possibly like the bitter cold. My only conclusion is people who do absolutely nothing outside their home are the only ones who truly like the bitter cold. Am I wrong?

You are booing above average temperatures in January? I have to ask why? What good comes from below average temperatures? What can anyone who is active do when there is an arctic outbreak? Do those who sit at home and do nothing other than watch tv like the very cold temps? Just very curious. It's always amazed me how people could possibly like the bitter cold. My only conclusion is people who do absolutely nothing outside their home are the only ones who truly like the bitter cold. Am I wrong?

How do you know she's booing the temps? Many of us are booing the missed moisture.

I DO, however, boo the above-average temperatures as well. What good comes from above-average temps? Earlier growing season only to be ruined by a late freeze? I love snow and cold - easier to dress for cold than it is for warm... only so many layers to take off.

I boo above average temps too. I love winter. I love cold weather. And it not because I sit in the house when it's cold. I love being outside when it's cold. I would love for it to be 15 degrees with 3 feet of snow on the ground. The colder and snowier it is...the better. My best memories of football games are of going when it was super cold. In high school, I was in the band and my best memory was a game when we had to put kerosene in our horns to keep the valves from freezing up. It was a blast. My favorite memory of an OU game was a night game when it was in the low 20's/teens and raining all game. We had a blast. And we didn't even drink.

Were it not for family and ailing parents on both sides, I would move somewhere that is cold weather with lots of snow. But my commitments are here. So, count me as one who boos above average winter temperatures and below average winter precipitation. I even love driving when it is snowy. I'm 54 and have always felt this way. Cold and snow makes me feel like a kid.

I boo above average temps too. I love winter. I love cold weather. And it not because I sit in the house when it's cold. I love being outside when it's cold. I would love for it to be 15 degrees with 3 feet of snow on the ground. The colder and snowier it is...the better. My best memories of football games are of going when it was super cold. In high school, I was in the band and my best memory was a game when we had to put kerosene in our horns to keep the valves from freezing up. It was a blast. My favorite memory of an OU game was a night game when it was in the low 20's/teens and raining all game. We had a blast. And we didn't even drink.

Were it not for family and ailing parents on both sides, I would move somewhere that is cold weather with lots of snow. But my commitments are here. So, count me as one who boos above average winter temperatures and below average winter precipitation. I even love driving when it is snowy. I'm 54 and have always felt this way. Cold and snow makes me feel like a kid.
I driven through heavy snow at night before. It was a white out. Trying to do that is far from lovable and all stress. At least, I made it back home without running off the road and told myself never again would I do that again and haven't.

I boo above average temps too. I love winter. I love cold weather. And it not because I sit in the house when it's cold. I love being outside when it's cold. I would love for it to be 15 degrees with 3 feet of snow on the ground. The colder and snowier it is...the better. My best memories of football games are of going when it was super cold. In high school, I was in the band and my best memory was a game when we had to put kerosene in our horns to keep the valves from freezing up. It was a blast. My favorite memory of an OU game was a night game when it was in the low 20's/teens and raining all game. We had a blast. And we didn't even drink.

Were it not for family and ailing parents on both sides, I would move somewhere that is cold weather with lots of snow. But my commitments are here. So, count me as one who boos above average winter temperatures and below average winter precipitation. I even love driving when it is snowy. I'm 54 and have always felt this way. Cold and snow makes me feel like a kid.

I think most know my position on this. :) I am much more active outside in the cold than the warm. I really dislike hot weather, but I take the good with the bad here. The nice thing about Oklahoma, you usually get a good mix - though the last few years have had pretty mild or short winters. This 30s/40s and rain is horrible and just makes me want to sleep all day. Give me 20s and snow or 60s and sunny with a good breeze.

Does appear the eastern solution worked out and rain chances for Central OK are pretty much done for now - outside of any drizzle. Not really a lot at all on the horizon for the next 10-14 days.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image1.jpg

I think most know my position on this. :) I am much more active outside in the cold than the warm. I really dislike hot weather, but I take the good with the bad here. The nice thing about Oklahoma, you usually get a good mix - though the last few years have had pretty mild or short winters. This 30s/40s and rain is horrible and just makes me want to sleep all day. Give me 20s and snow or 60s and sunny with a good breeze.

I work outside when it's cool/cold..... I fish when it's warm/hot...... I'll fire up my smoker in any weather! :)

I have to say BOOOOOOO!!!! to that winter drought map though!

One small area of showers popped up over in Caddo county here in the last bit. It'll be moving NE and will probably get the West sides of the metro. Might be able to get a little rain out of it for us if it can expand a bit more, otherwise most areas west of a Tulsa to Ardmore line are done.

OKC will be close to a record high on Sunday. Record 73 set in 1935. High temp will be near 70.

Just heard a new record high was set for today. 74 degrees

Just heard a new record high was set for today. 74 degrees

Yeah, I don't recall the TV weathermen excitedly warning us that was going to happen.

Yeah, I don't recall the TV weathermen excitedly warning us that was going to happened.Are you being sarcastic? I honestly didn't know..... I don't generally watch the weather on TV, 99% of my weather updates either come from these thread or just word of mouth.

Wish we'd get some rain.

Any thoughts from our weather gurus on later this month/early next?

Saw that https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi posted this cold and snowy potential:

6046

It's interesting to see the models picking up on something that far out, but that is also the problem. It is so far out that the level confidence just isn't there to even worry at this point.

Any thoughts from our weather gurus on later this month/early next?

Saw that https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi posted this cold and snowy potential:

6046



I think it is blown out of context. Long-range GFS is almost always chaos. Yes sometimes it generally pans out as such, but what the graphics above are pointing to, is the congo line of storms riding the jetstream. Models that far out are basically taking shots in the dark on moisture return in between systems and cold, dry air flooding through.

However, I will agree that our boring pattern the last 2 months could be coming to an end by the end of January.

Boring? We've had a couple of stupendous ice storms!

I meant after that, technically more like a month, but by the end of January it will have basically been 2 months of boring weather. The icestorms at the beginning of December should have been warm-up storms to the real winter storms... However, we're still waiting on those storms ;).

I meant after that, technically more like a month, but by the end of January it will have basically been 2 months of boring weather. The icestorms at the beginning of December should have been warm-up storms to the real winter storms... However, we're still waiting on those storms ;).
I'll be perfectly content if nothing "exciting" happens at all.

Long range bread and milk watch beginning January 24-25 ish. :cool:

I saw that we might have some rodeo weather on the way. Pick up some pot roast with the bread and milk.

^ +1

Its better that we be in a dry pattern now, when evaporation rates are so low and everything is dormant than in April and May when we usually get good rain...
I don't mind missing out on ice and drifting snow.
The WX pattern has plenty of time to change.


PS: the city of Norman just picked up my tree limbs today.

Its better that we be in a dry pattern now, when evaporation rates are so low and everything is dormant than in April and May when we usually get good rain...
I don't mind missing out on ice and drifting snow.
The WX pattern has plenty of time to change.


PS: the city of Norman just picked up my tree limbs today.

They must be behind as many areas of our fine burg still have limbs curbside. However I am glad the city is taking care of it and not leaving it to our own devices.

They got ours picked up last week, so no worries here. Though I had to laugh at neighbors that completely chopped down some trees (that had little to no damage) to take advantage of the pick up.

They got ours picked up last week, so no worries here. Though I had to laugh at neighbors that completely chopped down some trees (that had little to no damage) to take advantage of the pick up.
I saw some of that too...I can't say as I blame them.
But I did see some of it cut into firewood per my suggestion.
I have always wondered why we don't see more people cutting up firewood following some of our storms?

I saw some of that too...I can't say as I blame them.
But I did see some of it cut into firewood per my suggestion.
I have always wondered why we don't see more people cutting up firewood following some of our storms?

Not sure. It would make sense for some. I have a gas fireplace so totally worthless for me, but I use the logs to help reinforce the washout in my backyard along the drainage creek the city has there.

Okay, time for some weather finally. This is all long range. Next 10 days looks like mild and dry will high to extreme fire danger every few days. A couple blasts of arctic air in the Great Lakes over the next week before another big outbreak moves south. Should really establish itself by the 28th give or take a day or two. Some areas of the Northern Plains and Great Lakes will be well below zero. For us...just cold - teens and twenties.

Snowfall outlook: Maybe some in the state around the 27th and through the end of the month. No major, end of the GFS forecast window, snowpocolypses or anything.

Precip outlook: Light rain E OK on the 23rd, again the 27th, then on the 31st (likely snow). Dry the rest of the time which won't help hold back drought conditions and fire weather concerns.

High/Extreme Fire Days (gusty winds + < 30% RH): 16th - C & W, 17th - SW, 18th - NW, 19th - NW, 24th - W, and 27th - W.

Two apocalypses showing up around January 25-27 and again 29-31.

Meaningless this far out, other than potential weather pattern change that favors precip in main body of OK.

The updated drought monitor as of Jan. 14th has more of the yellow area for abnormally dry conditions advancing further east. It now includes Tulsa, Stillwater, Enid, and Oklahoma City.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_ok_trd.png?1389909970

You guys do remember we had that late Blizzard Jan 31-Feb 1 in 2011 and then another a week after, yeah? The weather before those storms preceding it was extremely quiet. And after that it was all drought. Yuck.

You guys do remember we had that late Blizzard Jan 31-Feb 1 in 2011 and then another a week after, yeah? The weather before those storms preceding it was extremely quiet. And after that it was all drought. Yuck.

There were record highs and dry weather in the days before that blizzard. Then at or below freezing for over a week, with some places in NE Okla. dipping to -20 below zero.

There were record highs and dry weather in the days before that blizzard. Then at or below freezing for over a week, with some places in NE Okla. dipping to -20 below zero.

I'll take anything at this point. Already tiring of this perpetual non-winter. A few drops into the upper 20s or early 30s would at least give the illusion of winter. Bonus? I could wear my new jaunty boots.

I'll take anything at this point. Already tiring of this perpetual non-winter. A few drops into the upper 20s or early 30s would at least give the illusion of winter. Bonus? I could wear my new jaunty boots.

I've used about twice as much natural gas for heating the winter, so I guess last winter was twice as much of a non-winter.

Guessing the models dropped off any precip chances and the polar vortex II? I see just one cold day on Thurs with zero chance for precip in the next 10 days

Guessing the models dropped off any precip chances and the polar vortex II? I see just one cold day on Thurs with zero chance for precip in the next 10 days

The polar vortex might dip back down across the northern part of the country still coming up. Remember, the polar vortex is ALWAYS there it isn't something new and strange...it just moved down south further than it has for a few years. Plus the name sounds cool so the media went crazy with it.

Upcoming Precip Chances
Friday Jan 24th - along south of I-40. GFS wants this to be all snow as well, which could be a few inches but heavier in North Texas with a general 3-6" accumulation. Now, the 12Z GFS solution this morning is the only run that shows this, so we don't have any others to back it up yet. The Euro takes this system down south along the Gulf coast keeping us dry.

Friday Jan 31st - much of the state. Could be talking heavy precip with up to a half inch through Friday at 6AM and then another 1-2" during the day on Friday. Right now it looks like all rain going to snow, but only about a dusting in central OK to a few inches east. Run to run consistency is weak right now. The last several have a storm system in the general region, but not the same specific solutions.

00Z GFS killed the chances for snow at the end of the week here, pushes it waaaay south. Next chance of snow looks to be around Feb 3rd or 4th.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/01/20/00/GFS_3_2014012000_F372_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Wind Child Advisory for tomorrow for north of I-40.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014


OKZ014>019-024>026-231200-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WC.Y.0002.140123T0900Z-140123T1600Z/
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-CANADIAN-
OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...
CLINTON...WATONGA...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...YUKON.. .EL RENO...
MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER
226 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014


...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY.


* WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE...DRESS IN LAYERS AND LEAVE NO SKIN
EXPOSED TO THE WIND. FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA CAN HAPPEN
QUICKLY.

With the car in the garage thankfully I will be exposed to the wind for a grand total of 15 seconds from the car to my work's front door lol

Don't be shocked to see a flake or two today. Really dry out there but might be some light flurries scattered about today. McAlester does have some light snow right now.

With the car in the garage thankfully I will be exposed to the wind for a grand total of 15 seconds from the car to my work's front door lol

Pretty much the same for me.

Looking ahead.

Potential flurries/clipper-type snow shower Monday.

Then approaching February and the first week of February, it looks interesting. This disturbance has been consistent on run to run for the last several days. So track and type is still in question, but general chance looks likely at this time.

Looking ahead.

Potential flurries/clipper-type snow shower Monday.

Then approaching February and the first week of February, it looks interesting. This disturbance has been consistent on run to run for the last several days. So track and type is still in question, but general chance looks likely at this time.

Any type of moisture would be greatly appreciated!

CPC's Outlook for Early Feb...

https://scontent-b-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/1622176_690316190989311_1918807455_n.png

The TV mets keep talking about a basic weather pattern change about next weekend that should bring increasing chances of rain / snow

WIND ADVISORY
Updated: Sun Jan-26-14 03:48am CST
Effective: Sun Jan-26-14 03:48am CST
Expires: Mon Jan-27-14 06:00am CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wash ita; Woods; Woodward

Instructions: Be careful if you have to travel or if you are working or playing outside.

Message summary: ...wind advisory in effect from 10 pm this evening to 6 am cst monday...
The national weather service in norman has issued a wind advisory...which is in effect from 10 pm this evening to 6 am cst monday.
* timing: strongest winds will occur behind a cold front from late this evening through the overnight.
* winds: north winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts over 40 mph.
* impacts: difficult driving conditions for high-profile and light-weight vehicles... Especially on east-west roadways.

Things look to get a little bit interesting in the 7-10 day timeframe.

Things look to get a little bit interesting in the 7-10 day timeframe.

Translation: if you hate cold - move south by February. If you hate snow...buy a flame thrower. :)

Translation: if you hate cold - move south by February. If you hate snow...buy a flame thrower. :)

And, apparently, if you hate cold, AVOID going south for a few days. Can't believe the gulf coast is going to get a wintry mix.

Still a long ways out but there has been decent model consistency thus far. This is valid 12pm Wed Feb 5.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_temp_240.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_240.gif