Time to end the year...already. Severe weather chances remain through November but go down in December. Typically this can be a pretty rough time of year with varieties of weather, but we'll see what happens.


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http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Tuesday could be a real soaker.

Some rain out there right now and a good ol' SE wind for the night.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image5.jpg

Models pushing heaviest rain further and further east.

Still looking like a solid inch in OKC area. Will have to see where heavier bands setup heading into tomorrow morning.

I'm hearing rumors of a big storm in about 12 days with cold air.
Any confirmation?

Yup, OKC will get around 2 inches of ice with NW OK getting slammed with a foot of snow.


Ah yes, the first winter storm of the season bug.

Yup, OKC will get around 2 inches of ice with NW OK getting slammed with a foot of snow.


Ah yes, the first winter storm of the season bug.

You wouldn’t be pulling our legs would you?:o

Yup, OKC will get around 2 inches of ice with NW OK getting slammed with a foot of snow.


Ah yes, the first winter storm of the season bug.I was told by December 12, there would be so much snow on the ground, steel support beams would have to be erected over the roads to create tunnels so people can drive, on the account of the snow being 34ft. high ;)

I was told by December 12, there would be so much snow on the ground, steel support beams would have to be erected over the roads to create tunnels so people can drive, on the account of the snow being 34ft. high ;)

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02477/snow-angular_2477277k.jpg

nice!

Yup, OKC will get around 2 inches of ice with NW OK getting slammed with a foot of snow.

Ah yes, the first winter storm of the season bug.

LOL you are terrible. :)

No winter wx showing up right now. Bread and Milk Watch cancelled for now. :)

No major snow threats showing up the next 14 days give or take. Some bouts of cool to cold air here and then, but nothing major. Towards Thanksgiving week models want to start pooling up a bunch of arctic air in western Canada, so we have to keep an eye on that.

***THE OKCTALK WEATHER OFFICE IN OKC HAS ISSUED A BREAD AND MILK WATCH FOR YOUR VIEWING AREA***


Showers and some rumbles of thunder developing in SW OK right now. Expect this to spread north and east into this evening.

Line of "storms" running from Medford to Enid to Arapaho, down to west of Cordell and over west of Hollis.

Strongest cells are near Cordell with some small hail and back west of Hollis. Everything is moving NE for the most part. The front will push this line east through the evening. Nothing major expected. Some noise and heavy rain. Maybe a few smaller hail stones as well.

OKC metro was skipped over by some of the heavier stuff. Norman and Guthrie almost got 2 inches of rain. While the heart of OKC saw on average just over half an inch.

We are starting to run out of time to break the rainfall record.

As the map shows, interesting how the rain concentrated along four narrow, long bands through the state. As with Guthrie, Stillwater didn't get bypassed. There, wunderground and meso had amounts reported around 1.5". And Stillwater is starting to run out of time to get up to the average amount with 30 to 34 in. of rain in the area. Average is 36.71".

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

Next week could get pretty interesting, especially north of the area. Need to stay tuned if things change.

Next week could get pretty interesting, especially north of the area. Need to stay tuned if things change.

Could you please explain.

Thanks

It's getting cooler and the wind is out of the north, away from the eastern cedar infested lands to the south of Mustang. I am happy.

Hello everyone! My name is Amber, and I live in Tulsa. Long time follower, but first time poster. LOVE the weather, but tracking winter storms are my favorite hobby. I believe Venture was referring to the crazy Euro last night. This will probably not happen....so take it with a grain of salt. However....this is fun to look at and dream!4976

Hello everyone! My name is Amber, and I live in Tulsa. Long time follower, but first time poster. LOVE the weather, but tracking winter storms are my favorite hobby. I believe Venture was referring to the crazy Euro last night. This will probably not happen....so take it with a grain of salt. However....this is fun to look at and dream!4976

Welcome to the board.... Please don't be a stranger.
That's good INFO and sort of what I was asking about in post #5

Welcome to the board.... Please don't be a stranger.
That's good INFO and sort of what I was asking about in post #5

so we are having a mid November blizzard next week!

Hello everyone! My name is Amber, and I live in Tulsa. Long time follower, but first time poster. LOVE the weather, but tracking winter storms are my favorite hobby. I believe Venture was referring to the crazy Euro last night. This will probably not happen....so take it with a grain of salt. However....this is fun to look at and dream!4976

Indeed Amber. Though the track of everything is way out of whack. GFS has been all over the place, but to make it clear, hasn't shown anything over 6" over Oklahoma next week...and most of it melting in a day or two. These significant run to run consistencies just make it not worth spending a lot of time diving into specifics on them. If we start to see a similar solution last three consecutive runs then we can start getting excited a little...with out the hype of 4 and 9 of course. :)

so we are having a mid November blizzard next week!

Well, I don't know... That's why I was asking the experts... But they don't know but its not like anyone would hold them accountable for a 14 day forecast in our state.
My main concern is the home OU - ISU game that I will attend regardless of WX. I just hope its a an 11 am kickoff and not at night. The TV folks have declared a 6 day window so we won't know the kick off time until Saturday night or Sunday.

so we are having a mid November blizzard next week!

I wouldn't rush out to buy the snowblower just yet. :)

Approaching that time of the year...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
243 PM CST THU NOV 7 2013


...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...


OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033-034-036-TXZ083-084-087-081000-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.A.0007.131108T1900Z-131109T0100Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-BECKHAM-HARMON-GREER-
JACKSON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-KNOX-
243 PM CST THU NOV 7 2013


...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS


* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 WITH HIGHER GUSTS


* HUMIDITY...NEAR 20 PERCENT


* TEMPERATURE...65 TO 70 DEGREES


* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

Tuesday morning front will come through with colder air behind it. Some light precip, maybe a tenth of an inch, but could see some sleet mix in based on the forecast sounding. Nothing major to worry about now as surface temps will be in the upper 30s.

Relatively quiet this week, a shot of cold air to come through.

Next two weeks looks like the fun begins!

HARD FREEZE WARNING OUT FROM 8PM TUE. to 10AM WED.- COVERS ENTIRE OKC METRO AREA

Areas affected: Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Garvin; Grady; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wash ita

Instructions: A hard freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Message summary: The national weather service in norman has issued a hard freeze warning.
...hard freeze warning in effect from 8 pm tuesday to 10 am cst wednesday...
* temperature: 20 to 25 by early wednesday morning.

Dark blue in warning area.
http://stillwaterweather.com/SWSPdata/MapPlot1384142995.png

FROM: Stillwater Weather - Advisories, Watches, Warnings, Etc. (http://stillwaterweather.com/advisories.php?zone=OKC119#WL1)

Bread & Milk Watch

Time Period: Nov 25th to 27th

Reason: Chance for accumulating snow has been depicted on 2 of the last 3 GFS runs.

Likelihood of Occurring: 10%

Bread and Milk Watch still in effect for November 25ish.

What's everyone thoughts on the 17-21st time frame? Looks to get pretty cold and potentially our next weather maker.

Bread and Milk Watch still in effect for November 25ish.

Definitely seems like there will be some decent sized system that week...

12Z GFS forecast...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/11/12/12/GFS_3_2013111212_F336_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Looking like I can leave my golf clubs behind when I go to Kansas for Thanksgiving.

What's everyone thoughts on the 17-21st time frame? Looks to get pretty cold and potentially our next weather maker.

Nothing too exciting yet from what I've been seeing. Looks like most of the precip is will ahead of the cold air looking at GFS and ECMWF.

GFS just finished up completely. Dreaming of a white Thanksgiving?

GFS just finished up completely. Dreaming of a white Thanksgiving?

Below freezing for the entire week. Gotta be a dream!

Since freeze warnings are boring...here is a look at the week of Thanksgiving. Total snow by 1AM Turkey day per the 18Z GFS...

Take away - storm that week appears probable, but actual location is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from locked in.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/11/12/18/GFS_3_2013111218_F372_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

This weekend looks great. Maybe some fast moving showers Saturday. Better chances as you head east.

Long range GFS looks less exciting, winter storm wise, as of now.

Euro is now showing a 10 day out storm for late next weekend: This could be the same storm the GFS was hinting at between the 24-28th time frame. Any thoughts?

5025

Timing is about right Amber. I think there has been enough hints at something happening during that period, but still would like to see 3 or 4 consecutive runs with a similar solution. For now I think we keep the Bread and Milk Watch up. :)

For now I think we keep the Bread and Milk Watch up. :)

I'm not good at reading your sarcasm font, but ... I'm always amazed at the grocery swarm prior to feared bad weather. I'll never understand it. I wonder what it's like in other states.

I'm not good at reading your sarcasm font, but ... I'm always amazed at the grocery swarm prior to feared bad weather. I'll never understand it. I wonder what it's like in other states.

It is the same way everywhere from my experience. The difference is when bread and milk panics occurr. For us here in OK, bread and milk panics are present with much lower severity of storms. Whereas in the Northeast, bread and milk panic is usually for forecasted apocalyptic-type storms.

Don't forget toilet paper. Eating all that bread and milk, you know...

18Z GFS has the snow back, but on the 29th and 30th.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/11/14/18/GFS_3_2013111418_F384_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Not really for us, but something I will be following since it impacts the folks back north. Could have a big time late fall outbreak from the Lower Lakes through the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley. Wind profiles and shear forecasts look ridiculous and storm motions are estimated NE @45-60 mph. Not a lot of lead time for them on Sunday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0830.gif

Don't forget toilet paper. Eating all that bread and milk, you know...

Tip of the day!

When roughing it I discovered that icicles will work in a pinch.
But just be sure that you watch out for sharp edges!

I decided I would keep track of the potential "milk and bread" storm, and following the Euro it definately keeps the storm. Looks like a classic southern snow maker too. Fingers crossed:)

This is what Amber is talking about. This is the snowfall accumulation by 6PM Friday the 22nd per the ECMWF (euro). I added an outline of the part of the state border that was hard to seen. The GFS is faster with the system and moves all moisture out before the cold air arrives.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/nov13/nov22-ecmwf-snow.png

I hope it doesn't snow next Friday, I got college. If it does will it only be one day or several?

Mike Morgan was talking about the possibility of Snow on Friday...
He did indicate that a lot could change with this.

I'm not excited about snow anymore.

Damn, I've grown up.

00Z GFS is locking on to a winter storm now in the Southern Plains late next week. Definitely a "Bread and Milk Watch" event now. ;)

Now GFS is a bit slow with the cold air still, freezing line is up in NW OK by Friday evening. It moves through most of Western OK on Saturday, but doesn't make it through here until Sunday morning. GFS does show a TON of moisture with this next storm. We are talking a band of 2-3" of liquid along and just north of I-44. Most of the heaviest rain is east of I-35 by Friday evening. Then looking at drizzle behind the main batch and then a wrap around band in the Panhandle and NW OK. That fades by late Saturday.

The 12Z ECMWF (can't see the 00Z one yet) has us above freezing until 6AM Friday. If this would verify and the GFS precip amounts would...it would be a pretty notable storm. Even the ECMWF precip amounts though are pretty high...it just depends on the quality of the crystals at that point. ECMWF has an band of 0.75 to 1.5" from SW to NE across Central OK. Standard 10 to 1 snow ratio would make it a pretty tough storm for us.

Should be an interesting one to watch now that GFS is coming along some.

Anyone with family in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley should probably check in and make sure they are aware of Sunday's threat. SPC upgraded to a 45% hatched Moderate Risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm motions up to 50 mph are going to make it tough for those areas that don't have the luxury we do down here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif

Hey Venture..have you been able to look at the new 0z Euro maps? I can't get mine to pull up.

Hey Venture..have you been able to look at the new 0z Euro maps? I can't get mine to pull up.

Yeah...matching up almost identically with the 00Z GFS right with a NW OK into the TX PH snowfall.

It does have on Friday some areas along and south of I-44 getting around an inch of snow.

Well Venture, what's your thoughts on the 12z suite? It appears to me the snow is either going to be too far North or too far SW for the majority of OK. However, I haven't seen the Euro yet.

Well Venture, what's your thoughts on the 12z suite? It appears to me the snow is either going to be too far North or too far SW for the majority of OK. However, I haven't seen the Euro yet.

Euro finally backed off all the snowfall except for some mixed in stuff on Friday out west. GFS keeps it to the NW part of the state and the panhandles. That seems more logical for this time of year. We just need to keep an eye on it. Things always get a little suspect when they lose any built up consistency, so I would like to see what the Euro does tonight. On the other side of that, GFS is spitting out a similar solutions now 3 times in a row.

SPC upgraded to a HIGH RISK for today in Indiana and E IL. If you have family/friends up there...give them a heads up. Real deal today.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif

Wow. When was the last time this happened this far north and this late in the year?