Appreciate it. Flying Southwest to MSY via HOU

It appears models are trying to eject the low at more of a horizontal angle, if you will. As in, before the trend was to eject the storm from TX with a sharp angle northeast into MO.

It looks now as if the low will track more from west to east with a less sharp angle. Most of MO is not even under advisories.


Although the general forecast has left Western OK out of the mix, I would not be shocked if the wrap around from the storm actually surprises some forecasts out there. Could see some thundersnow in some of the heavier bands if the low really gets cranking over the body of OK. (one can hope, right!?)

Headlines issued...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013


OKZ016>020-022>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-042345-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0003.131205T1200Z-131207T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0005.131205T1200Z-131207T0000Z/
CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-
OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-
HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-
GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-
ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-
BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...CORDELL...ANAD ARKO...YUKON...
EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...
PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HO LDENVILLE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAW TON...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...WAUR IKA...
ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...MADILL.. .DURANT...
QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...
MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...
LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
942 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY.


* THURSDAY...6 AM TO 6 PM: LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.


* THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER WINTER
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.


* FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A HOLDENVILLE...TO ADA...TO
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA AND WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND SOME SLEET.


* MAIN IMPACT: ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/2 INCH MAY CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES.


* FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF HOLDENVILLE...TO ADA...TO ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA AND WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...INCLUDING LAWTON AND
OKLAHOMA CITY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW AND SLEET AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.


* OTHER IMPACTS: VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE LOWER
TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


AVOID TRAVEL. BE SURE YOU CAN TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND YOUR
FAMILY IF YOU LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS
AND INFORMATION.

Advisories...

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-
BECKHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT...
WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...ELK CITY...SAYRE
942 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING: THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER...ONE ON
THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: VERY COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.


GRANT-KAY-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ENID...PERRY
942 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER...ONE ON
THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: VERY COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif

Which news station will go crazy with the winter weather coverage.A KFOR B.KOCO C KWTV and D.Who in the world watches Fox 25

Which news station will go crazy with the winter weather coverage.A KFOR B.KOCO C KWTV and D.Who in the world watches Fox 25

all of the above. hey, jonathan conder's back in town! maybe he'll go nuts on someone who's wearing crocs in the snow?

12Z GFS keeps wave 1 to the SE tomorrow. Wave 2 it brings up from SW OK into the Metro area and then weakens it by mid Friday morning. Metro snowfall amounts 4-6". Overall models are pretty much together, mostly, except on amounts - which is nothing new. We'll probably see last minute adjustments tonight/tomorrow.

Lousy day tomorrow for a funeral.

Lousy day tomorrow for a funeral.

Is there ever a good day for a funeral?

Is there ever a good day for a funeral?

Touché.

Lousy day tomorrow for a funeral.

Unfortunately I will be going to a funeral Saturday morning when it will be a balmy 12 degrees. It will be a nice cherry on top of a giant turd sundae.

Norman's updated map...which is close to the GFS solution.

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/1461257_664193996934864_1279902614_n.jpg

I can't remember it getting this cold so early in the winter season for so long since 1983... which set all kinds of records....

all of the above. hey, jonathan conder's back in town! maybe he'll go nuts on someone who's wearing crocs in the snow?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lwg02hPGTLc

18Z NAM has the heaviest snow bad just slighty south of previous run. Over Lawton - Purcell and east of there.

Metro area...
by Midnight Friday: Trace N to < 1" S
12AM to 3AM: 1" N to 3" S
3AM to 6AM: 1" N to 3" S
6AM to 9AM: 1" NW to 2" SE

Total... 3" NW Metro to 9" S Metro (Norman & South)

Honestly...the take away needs to be there will be a heavy snow bad of 6" and more somewhere in Central Oklahoma. Exactly where, we won't really know until it starts to see where the band is going to setup. Think of it as dealing with severe weather and outflow boundaries the night before...a like of small scale stuff will come into play at the last minute.

Just to expand on venture's great information -- it is appearing more and more likely that nearly all precip in Central OK on Friday will fall in the form of snow as opposed to sleet (and a heavy, wet snow at that). This should lend toward higher snow totals overall.

In case we have any Eastern Oklahoma ppl on the site...here is what the NWS in Tulsa is going with for totals. Aligns well with the Euro.

See Snow Totals Here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/tsa/gfe/StormSnowAmt.png

ouamber.. What do you think? Personally I think we'll see 7-8, i'm assuming we don't get very much sleet.

Just looked at something Jed at KWTV posted and it is a bit ehhh. They are really pushing this big sleet/snow mixture over the Metro area.

18Z GFS is really close to NAM on this now - finally they like each other, mostly.

By Midnight Friday AM: N Metro 1/2 to 1", 1-2" S
Midnight to 3AM: 2-3" Metro wide
3AM to 6AM: 1-2" South to 2 to 3" North (slight reversal there)
6AM to 9AM: < 1" metro wide, snow ending.

So overall ranges we are looking at 4 to 8".

Now that is basic 10:1 ratios there. Looking at the sounding forecast - the atmosphere will be fully saturated throughout the levels for the crystal formation on Friday. Not to get extremely technical, but what we would look at is the formation of either dendrites, plates, and then needles/columns based on the air temp. Those are different types of snowflakes basically. Based on what I'm seeing, we are going to probably get plates are the primary crystal type and the profile would suggest a lower Snow:Liquid ratio of closer to 9:1...which really isn't that much different. If the upper levels are colder than expected and we can get the temp lowered even more than this will go up. Now the air temp will keep dropping as the snow falls. This would go through a region with air temps around -11°C which starts to get us into that sweat spot for dendrite growth and the ratio goes up to 15:1. If that gets realized, then that upper level goes from 8" to 12".

So enough rambling. Just thinking out loud some as we get closer.

Based on everything I've seen, 6-8 inches looks reasonable for Tulsa, but as stated many times, could change. Also something to keep in mind is where the pivot axis sets up....snow ratios could go much higher in those areas:)

Ground temps are at 50...Any guess how many inches might get eaten up if we get 4-6?

Ground temps are at 50...Any guess how many inches might get eaten up if we get 4-6?

Its going to be below freezing all day tomorrow before the main snow event even arrives so I don't very little melting will occur.

Its going to be below freezing all day tomorrow before the main snow event even arrives so I don't very little melting will occur.

This exactly. Norman for example has already cooled 2 degrees so far today. The colder air today kept the ground from gaining a typical 5-8 degrees today. We saw the ground only warm up about 3 (Mesonet | Soil Temperature Graphs (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/soil_temperature)). While there will be some initial melt, snowfall rates will probably likely overtake the melting pretty fast.

This exactly. Norman for example has already cooled 2 degrees so far today. The colder air today kept the ground from gaining a typical 5-8 degrees today. We saw the ground only warm up about 3 (Mesonet | Soil Temperature Graphs (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/soil_temperature)). While there will be some initial melt, snowfall rates will probably likely overtake the melting pretty fast.

Figured but thought I would ask...I saw your post above but are we looking at wet or dry snow?

18Z model compare page: Weather Spotlight - Winter Weather 06Z/18Z Model Comparisons (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/winter2.html)

AA, UA, and WN are now all offering rebooking assistance for those traveling the next 2-3 days.

Thursday worked out for me on a few levels. Friday game for the hometown lads has been rescheduled.
Me to weather ... Bring it!

00Z NAM pushing things back to the east for Friday just as it did with yesterday's 00Z run, projecting 4-6" on the SE sides of the metro to nearly 0 for the far NW sides of the metro.

00Z NAM pushing things back to the east for Friday just as it did with yesterday's 00Z run, projecting 4-6" on the SE sides of the metro to nearly 0 for the far NW sides of the metro.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnHmskwqCCQ

It is like a temperamental child that doesn't want to conform.

Yeah the Benny Hill Theme seems to fit well. LOL

It is like a temperamental child that doesn't want to conform.

Haha so true. At this point I see one of two scenarios unfolding -- 1) System continues to get pushed east and the metro gets zilch or 2) It bucks the trend in the NAM, digs just a bit further west and north, and the metro gets completely dumped on.

Haha so true. At this point I see one of two scenarios unfolding -- 1) System continues to get pushed east and the metro gets zilch or 2) It bucks the trend in the NAM, digs just a bit further west and north, and the metro gets completely dumped on.

IOW, I need to sleep in tomorrow because it'll be a long night in the chat room Thursday into Friday. ;)

Perilously close to a big fat zero for OKC:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_057.gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnHmskwqCCQ

Thief.

It'll be interesting to see what GFS does.

So there is still a chance for an OKC bust at this point in time?

So there is still a chance for an OKC bust at this point in time?

When it comes to OKC and winter weather, there is always a chance to bust.

Seems like we've got some experts here. I'm planning to drive into OKC for the weekend tomorrow morning from DFW and head back Sunday. Am I good?

Tomorrow morning you should be fine. Some isolated freezing drizzle may pop up in the state. Getting into the afternoon Southern Oklahoma will start to see the freezing precip increase, but if you beat that you'll be okay. Back Sunday...ideally they'll have everything cleaned up.

Thief.

If you already posted this my bad, sometimes I view the board where videos are blocked, or mobile

If you already posted this my bad, sometimes I view the board where videos are blocked, or mobile

I posted it this morning, but it remains relevant. Thievery forgiven ;)

c'mon, there's always room for more Yakety Sax!

00Z GFS rolling in now....and of course it has fallen back out of agreement with the NAM - keeping a nice swath of snow right through the OKC metro but also a bit better chance of light precip tomorrow.

GFS staying consistent > NAM being flakey. Just my opinion. ;)

Just one side comment...can we please get a daytime snow storm at least once this season. I'm tired of it always being dark. Okay...back to regular programming.

GFS staying consistent > NAM being flakey. Just my opinion. ;)

GFS staying consistent (man getting dressed to go out) > NAM being flakey. (Woman getting dressed to go out)

GFS is a snowstorm for OKC and Tulsa. NAM is hardly a snowstorm for anyone... south of that just ice and sleet.


Like has been mentioned many times already. Whoever gets underneath the main banding (possible thundersnow) is going to get dumped on.


Overrunning moisture stream off the low is producing some fast moving snow showers in KS right now. Per water vapor imagery, the air is prime right now for heavy, wet precip.

First echos of this storm showing up right now, south of Lubbock.

Quick FYI. Cox decided to blow up the node that just happens to serve my interwebs account, so they have a person dispatched to get out here and fix it. Until then, the website will be sleeping. LOL Should be fixed in the next hour or two. I'm going to take advantage of this and head out now and I will join you guys on here and in the chat room in the morning to start tracking this mess.

I also want to try to setup a webcam feed as well of conditions outside as the precip starts. If anyone else would like to do the same, you just need to have a UStream account and then just send me the information for the feed and we can bounce around to different areas and see what is going on.

5153

Just about sums it up perfectly...

HRRR showing developing Freezing Rain and Snow over SW OK starting around 10AM moving NE along I-44 into the Metro by Noon. North of I-44 looks like Snow/Sleet...south of I-44 is sleet/Freezing rain.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013120504/t5/totp_t5sfc_f15.png

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013120504/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Ice storm warnings extended now for the areas from Ada back to Ardmore. Freezing rain has already started from Seminole back to Pauls Valley and South & east of that area. Use extreme caution of I-35 travel today. Yes...this precip is about 5-8 hours ahead of schedule for down there.

So many schools have closed in advance of the storm, including some of the charters here in the city (no major metro area districts are out). Methinks they are jumping the gun a bit? Should be able to squeeze out half a day, right? I'm sure the students will be whining about how all these other schools are out...while the roads are dry. Ugh. Fear-mongering.

Hmmm... Flight scheduled to leave ORD at 0910, and arrive in OKC at 1130. Wonder what my odds are of making it home?

Precip in southeastern Oklahoma appears to be expanding rapidly from radar.

I live on the south side of Bixby. Looks like it will be a fun drive home (I live on a steep hill) in my little miata. ;)

Very light sleet snow mix in Bixby. Accumulating in spots.

I've got a class this morning that lets out about 12:30 - wondering if the roads are going to be nasty in S OKC around then.

Moisture stream really cranking now. Echos popping up all over S OK.

MD out of E OK regarding mixed precip.



Looks like a large precip. shield is forming near Lubbock right now and this will spread north and east into OK today. Then the main low should cross the state tonight.

One thing to note right now, the main low is closed off and there is virtually no dry air that is being pulled into it. This may change, but right now it is looking very healthy. Water vapor imagery shows nice moisture aloft that is extremely cold in the -50 to -60 C range.