Ideally ODOT and local cities would be out putting the brine treatment on the roadways tomorrow in preparation for Thursday/Friday. I'm just getting back from being up north for the holiday and every single road, county and city, were treated when a brief clipper came through that left a dusting. No issues with any icing anywhere. Hopefully the road crews here are smart enough to get ahead of the storm.

Would it be a faux pas to whisper that into Mike Morgan's ear?
Only as a suggestion on how to make things better and easier rather than more panic-based in regard to broadcasting? =)

So, cutting through all of the science and math . . . Will the roads be drivable on Thursday and Friday? I hope so on account of I have important things to do. =) Seriously: Do the local road maintenance teams (plows/salting/etc.) base their decisions on this sort of data? Or not? I once drove to Minneapolis, around Thanksgiving, a few years ago, and it started snowing about halfway through Iowa. Nothing was sticking to the roads thanks to some clear chemical solution they were spraying. By the time we got to St. Paul, the snow was at least a foot deep but the roads were easily passable.

I suppose that depends on what you drive.

I suppose that depends on what you drive.

More so depends on the driver. ;)

More so depends on the driver. ;)

Amen to that. (or "Hosanna" as, more accurately, the case may be. =)
Don't get "The Big Head" . . . Yet this is the only weather prediction site I trust.
(hence, the "mass-media" suggestion, above)

Ironic that a couple of models shunted the major precip eastward and OUN expanded the WSWatch westward.

New watch area...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BalMytBCAAAwCcg.jpg:large

Ironic that a couple of models shunted the major precip eastward and OUN expanded the WSWatch westward.

"Ironic" ain't the half of it.
Or maybe it is. Never could do math. =)

A question I got is will the precip be able to stick on the ground Thursday and Friday considering how warm it's supposed to get today?

Here is a nice page that gives you access to NCEP's SREF forecasts for total snowfall:

NCEP SREF Plume Viewer (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20131203&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=OKC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=34.8721336170941&mLON=-96.427418359375&mTYP=roadmap)

18Z NAM rolling in....pretty much zero precip for Central OK on Thursday.

Total precip amounts by 6pm Thursday:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_054.gif

Quite a bit heavier on the Friday precip than the 12Z run.

Total QPF (total liquid equivalent precip amounts) by 10AM Friday:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_069.gif

Side note -- here is a map of forecast temperature at midnight Saturday:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/SGP/namSGP_sfc_temp_084.gif

So the metro can look forward to a whopping .5 to 1.5 inches of precipt thru Friday? Jeesh we had all better run to the store and load up now in preparation for "blizzard 2013".

So the metro can look forward to a whopping .5 to 1.5 inches of precipt thru Friday? Jeesh we had all better run to the store and load up now in preparation for "blizzard 2013".

That's total QPF (total liquid equivalent precip amounts). Multiply by ______ to get predicted snowfall amount.

So the metro can look forward to a whopping .5 to 1.5 inches of precipt thru Friday? Jeesh we had all better run to the store and load up now in preparation for "blizzard 2013".

Not saying that it will happen as shown in the model, but that's .5 to 1.5 of liquid equivalent -- that'd be 5-12" of snow as shown...

That's total QPF (total liquid equivalent precip amounts). Multiply by ______ to get predicted snowfall amount.

Multiply by what? 8-10 Im guessing.

so we're looking at a dry Thursday until bedtime, and then when we wake up Friday morning expect to see some white stuff on the ground?

Temperature profiles provided by the 18Z NAM currently put the sleet/snow line right over the metro. 1 or 2 degrees aloft could possibly make a huge difference from the north side of the metro to the south. For example:

Edmond - all snow (8-10"+), no sleet
Norman - mainly sleet (up to 1") and very little snow in comparison (~2.5")

**Keep in mind we are still 3 days out from the Friday event and most of these projections will change**

SNOWFALL:

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif

SLEET:

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_72HR.gif

Um...is that seriously showing a foot for my back yard in Tulsa??? Good grief. I don't like being in the bullseye this soon though.

OUamber... Actually it's saying 12-14 ;) lol. I was thinking the same though, I live in Tulsa as well.

LOL I was happy with 6-8!:) Which is probably more realistic than that clown map, lol.

Just to be clear -- the NAM usually overdoes snowfall totals and we are still a long way out.

True.. It'll change several times im sure.. I love it though

Growing up in SE Texas, and OKC being the northern most place I've ever lived, bring on the white stuff!

If it does go all snow look for it mostly to be on the grass...Where it belongs :)

Growing up in SE Texas, and OKC being the northern most place I've ever lived, bring on the white stuff!
You can have all of that you want. Norman has the warmest winters of any place I have ever lived
If you are a real big fan of this white stuff go find a bad high plains blizzard someday in western Kansas..The worst of their blizzards are just almost as bad as blizzards can get and make the very worst of what central OK gets look like play time, from a weather point of view.

The WX Chanel or storm chasers are missing out on an extreme weather event when they don't go cover the really bad high plains Blizzards.

Growing up in SE Texas, and OKC being the northern most place I've ever lived, bring on the white stuff!

One of my fraternity brothers is from Spring, TX. First time it snowed in Stillwater he went downstairs to catch it with his tongue lol

As of the 5:00pm news KFOR has up to 8 inches while KOCO is going with 2-4

As of the 5:00pm news KFOR has up to 8 inches while KOCO is going with 2-4

Was that Mike Morgan? If so, go figure.

Sorry for the website outage. Just flew back in today from the fam up north, so everything is back up and going now. Silly Norman and their power outages causing issues.

I'll post my thoughts on everything after the 00Z model runs so we can compare the last few runs on the various trends.

As of the 5:00pm news KFOR has up to 8 inches while KOCO is going with 2-4

Basically NAM vs GFS.

Was that Mike Morgan? If so, go figure.

I think he's getting ready to tell people to Abandon the City on your Nearest Snowplow!!!! AAIIIEEEEEEE!!!!!

Edit: This just in!:

5147

What does tomorrow look like? When will it get below freezing?

You can have all of that you want. Norman has the warmest winters of any place I have ever lived
If you are a real big fan of this white stuff go find a bad high plains blizzard someday in western Kansas..The worst of their blizzards are just almost as bad as blizzards can get and make the very worst of what central OK gets look like play time, from a weather point of view.

The WX Chanel or storm chasers are missing out on an extreme weather event when they don't go cover the really bad high plains Blizzards.

That sounds perfect. If you've ever seen the Cold Miser guy on "The Year Without a Santa Claus", he's a moderate, as far as I'm concerned. If I were given the reins of weather control, it'd never get above about 40 degrees and the sun wouldn't shine a single day between Nov 1. and April 30th.

Thus, the reports that we might not get blasted kinda bum me out.

Playing catch up here still.

12Z ECMWF/Euro from this afternoon...

Snowfall forecast - OKC Metro specifically (only 3 hour time periods with precip are being noted)
6PM Thursday: 1" or less (near I-44)
3AM Friday: 1" or less (mainly west side)
6AM Friday: 1-2"
9AM Friday: 1-2"
12PM Friday: 3-4"

Rain/Freezing Rain/Sleet
Precip starts by 3PM Thursday (AM is dry) with "heaviest" near I-44 or just south (Norman area) and lasts through around 9PM before tapering off. Amounts could be over a quarter inch of ice along/near I-44 with a preference on the south side with the Euro.

What does tomorrow look like? When will it get below freezing?

According to my Yahoo weather app on my iPhone it'll be 45 degrees at 5PM tomorrow, so overnight Wednesday? since Thursday's high is shown as 30 with a low of 19...

What does tomorrow look like? When will it get below freezing?

00Z NAM that is just coming in brings freezing line through around Midnight Thursday morning.

00Z NAM Thursday Update...

Round 1 precip starting around 3PM, but mainly east of I-35 and South of I-44, and will end around 9PM. Metro impacts would be some isolated freezing drizzle. Keep in mind, this is just per this model. :)

00Z NAM Thurs PM/Friday Discussion

Wave 2 works in between 9PM Thurs and Midnight Friday. Upper air profile supports mostly snow with some sleet through Midnight and then a change over quickly to all snow for Central Oklahoma.

By Midnight NAM has 0.05" of precip in Edmond to 0.15" in Norman and SW burbs.
Through 3AM precip rates increase significantly with 0.35 to 0.5" of precip for much of the Metro. Lower far west, higher I-35 and west.
Period ending at 6AM has an additional 0.05" NW to 0.15" SE (Norman/Shawnee)
Through 9AM looks like some light snow, flurries, and/or freezing drizzle as the main snow moves off quickly.

Total precip for the period is ranging 0.45 to 0.8" through second wave. Simple 10 to 1 would say roughly 5 to 8 inches of snow for the Metro. However, I would imagine we'll see sleet during that first half, so it could temper amounts slightly to 4 to 6" with some isolated higher amounts.

Looking only at the NAM solution and the criteria that NWS Norman operates by (Watch, Warning and Advisory Definitions - Storm Spotter Resources (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=spotter-wwa-definitions#winter)) this would qualify for an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for the Friday wave. Right now NAM does not have the first wave meet the criteria for a warning, but personally it would be too confusing to have a Winter Wx Advisory for freezing drizzle on Thursday and then a Warning for Friday for snow/sleet.

so precip ending by lunch time Friday, am I reading that right?

so precip ending by lunch time Friday, am I reading that right?

That's what NAM is saying. Still plenty of other models to go through. :)

00Z GFS...

Freezing line through OKC metro by 3AM Thurs. Freezing rain profile in OKC until 9AM, then transition to sleet profile. Should be close or over to a full snow supportive air profile by midnight Friday morning.

Precip rundown...

Through 9AM Thurs - SE Metro area trace precip, freezing drizzle.
9AM to 12PM Thurs - C and SE Metro area trace to 0.05" of precip, freezing drizzle/sleet.
12PM to 3PM Thurs - NW Metro Trace precip to SE metro with up to 0.05", sleet.
3PM to 6PM Thurs - SE Metro trace precip, sleet/freezing drizzle.
Until Midnight Fri - Dry or isolated freezing drizzle.
Midnight to 3AM Fri - Light precip... 0.1" W to 0.05" East. Snow.
3AM to 6AM Fri - Light/Mod Precip...0.15 to 0.25" metro wide. Snow.
6AM to 9AM Fri - Light precip...0.05" West to 0.1" East. Snow

So this solution looks like up to 0.1" of sleet/freezing rain and then 2 to 5".

Kids if you are reading this they will be school on Thursday

This looks like fun:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_temp_156.gif

This looks like fun:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_temp_156.gif

Please interpret.

New NAM is latching onto the GFS solution as of now. Which is heavier amounts of snow further east.

Also the GEM is lower on totals for everyone.

Tomorrow morning should be helpful in these latest changes.

So what's this sucker doing in Colorado now, or has that wave started?

Please interpret.

Subzero (in F) temperatures Tuesday morning.

Please interpret.

It's showing temperatures in central - NE OK below 0.

OK, I'm not smart enough to understand all these graphs, colors, NAMs, GFSs, 017Zs & snow conversion rates - so here's what I really want to know:

Q - If I'm going to Kanye in Dallas on Friday night, 1) when do I need to leave Norman on Friday AND 2) what will I-35 South be like from a) Norman to Ardmore, b) Ardmore to Denton, and c) Denton to downtown D (icy? snow packed? normal?)

Just give it to me straight, plain English, no BS

Thanks,

Bob

1) Leave Thursday
2) a) treacherous
b) slightly less treacherous
c) slightly less treacherous

I'm ready for a winter-in-December experience, for a change.

OK, I'm not smart enough to understand all these graphs, colors, NAMs, GFSs, 017Zs & snow conversion rates - so here's what I really want to know:

Q - If I'm going to Kanye in Dallas on Friday night, 1) when do I need to leave Norman on Friday AND 2) what will I-35 South be like from a) Norman to Ardmore, b) Ardmore to Denton, and c) Denton to downtown D (icy? snow packed? normal?)

Just give it to me straight, plain English, no BS

Thanks,

Bob

just in case you don't want to ride a horse to Dallas here's a backup plan

Schedule (http://www.heartlandflyer.com/train-information/schedules/)

Both KFOR and KWTV have 2-4 inches now with Thurs being mostly uneventful...Sounds like the Friday commute will be the only fun one

GFS trending back north/west this morning. Putting OKC/Tulsa back into heaviest band.

GEM is also back up with amounts.

I feel like circus music should be playing during these model runs.

NWS has a graphic out that puts nothern sides of okc metro in a 4-6 inch band with sleet/ice just south of metro.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full4.jpg

Btw, Tulsa office has already issued their WSWarnings.

OUN will probably come late this morning.

I feel like circus music should be playing during these model runs.



How about this? It works for the grocery stores/Wal-Mart, too.


http://youtu.be/ZnHmskwqCCQ

12Z NAM coming in now.

Thursday

Dry until about Noon. Developing light freezing rain/drizzle will developed in SC and SE OK to the southeast of I-44. Precip will increase in coverage by 3PM to most areas southeast of I-44. Heaviest precip appears to be from northof Ada up to through Muskogee and Tahlequah. By 6PM precip will be steady in East Central OK back towards McAlester and will continue to expand through SE OK. Possible significant icing in those areas, Metro impacts very low.

After 9PM until Midnight, precip will increase rapidly over SW and SC OK up to about Norman and Seminole. For the southeast Metro (Norman/Shawnee) it looks like precip will be mostly snow with some sleet. QPF in this time frame is up to 0.15 or roughly 1" of snow considering sleet mixture. Heaviest amounts back towards the SW.

Midnight to 3AM precips rates get moderate to heavy. Highest rates will be along/southeast of I-44. Upper air profile shows Norman (which is the point I'm using on this forecast, since it tends to be a dividing point) has it 100% snow for the most part. Significant accumulations during this period consider we are talking a 3 hour period. There looks like a strip from Lawton-Chickasha-Norman/Moore and then out along I-40 and south about a county or two of precip amounts 0.35 to 0.50"...even up to 0.75" out along I-40. Metro area could have a very tight gradient here, which means this forecast will change based on where this snow band actually sets up. North metro = 0.1 to 0.15", Central metro 0.15 to 0.35", and the south I already covered. 10:1 is what I'm stinking with, but it could go to 12:1 or higher based on the nature of the air mass that actually develops. So we are looking at 1-2" North, 2-4" Central, 4-6" South, up to 8" just to the east.

3AM until 6AM...Heavy snow continues. Bullseye over Norman to Shawnee - again don't take the placement to the bank. NW metro 0.1" to 0.25" (1-3"), C Metro 0.15 to 0.35" (2-4"), S Metro 0.25" to 0.5" (2-5").

6AM to 9AM...Snow starts to ease and should tapper off fast. Maybe another 0.05" to 0.1" or about an inch of snow in the wrap around.

Worst case snowfall (based on the NAM's placement) 2-3" NW Metro to 13" S Metro. Don't take any of the amounts and placements to the bank at all. That's just this current model.

I will be in the chat room for much of today as I have a bunch of coding to get done today. So feel free to jump in if you are bored at work today. :)

Weather Spotlight - Live Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

for you airport folk, I have an 8am Friday. since that will be tail end of storm will they already have started with clearing of runways, ect by then or do they wait until its all over so start clearing things out?

Looking at the last 4 NAM runs...QPF amounts has fluctuated some, but not by huge amounts. Of course when we talk snow...the small shift can be 2-4 inch difference. The latest model is a shift slightly back to the west and north. I think things are settling down some since the bouncing around yesterday morning.

for you airport folk, I have an 8am Friday. since that will be tail end of storm will they already have started with clearing of runways, ect by then or do they wait until its all over so start clearing things out?

Depends who you are flying. If we are going to see a chance for a significant amount of snow, they won't even bother sending in the RON (overnight) aircraft to OKC. AA loves cancelling the morning flights to Dallas for any type of winter weather. WN/FL will cancel early as well if it looks too bad. Not sure how the others handle it. I'll keep an eye when the airlines start offering re accommodation options and post them.