You guys get everything... Cold and raining here in FTW but nothing is freezing.

Yea the Dallas (and most of TX) forecast was a total bust.

Looking ahead, looks like mild weather returns by the end of the weekend as the next storm approaches early-to-mid next week.

Both CH 4 & CH 9 indicate the coldest air of the season will arrive about next Thursday or Friday.....with the possibility of winter precipitation.
Mike Morgan indicated that he expects to see a high of 30 degrees in Stillwater for the OU-OSU game.
It sounds like it should be fairly windy.
Depending on the timing of the precipitation it could cause lots of no shows?

Bedlam is going to be packed regardless of the weather!

Bedlam is going to be packed regardless of the weather!

It will not be a sell out

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image5.jpg

On the one hand, what a mess for them. On the other, what a much needed pile of moisture that mess will be. I hope it was a very wet wet wet snow.

It will not be a sell out

Cause you don't think Bedlam can sell out like Baylor or because you have half ass fans who won't travel to Stillwater cause they think their Sooners are going to lose?

Cause you don't think Bedlam can sell out like Baylor or because you have half ass fans who won't travel to Stillwater cause they think their Sooners are going to lose?

You mean like the amazing Sooner fans that didn't even show up for the last home game? More than the student section was empty. Yet the seats were purchased so the "sell out" record continues. IMO, it should be like airline tickets. If you no show X minutes before the start of the game, let others purchase the seats at a discount. I would also argue that those who no show and have season passes, they should get dumped to the end of the line for next season unless they call in and cancel ahead of time (maybe give them 1 no show and penalize them after the 2nd time).

Bread and Milk Watch for next weekend. Most likely area for winter precip is North of I-40.

We'll worry about it more next week. Enjoy the holiday weekend. :)

DANGIT. Can't the weather wait until after All-State auditions? At least they're in the metro...feel for the people who have to drive in from far away.

Yes, my life at this point in the year revolves around various honor group auditions. It's an exciting life I lead, I tell ya.

However, it is nice to have some weather...any weather...versus the drought conditions where nothing happens for extended periods of time. What's the fun of living in Oklahoma if it's the same all the time? Might as well move to SoCal.

You mean like the amazing Sooner fans that didn't even show up for the last home game? More than the student section was empty. Yet the seats were purchased so the "sell out" record continues. IMO, it should be like airline tickets. If you no show X minutes before the start of the game, let others purchase the seats at a discount. I would also argue that those who no show and have season passes, they should get dumped to the end of the line for next season unless they call in and cancel ahead of time (maybe give them 1 no show and penalize them after the 2nd time).

Fair weather fans both literally and figuratively.

You mean like the amazing Sooner fans that didn't even show up for the last home game? More than the student section was empty. Yet the seats were purchased so the "sell out" record continues. IMO, it should be like airline tickets. If you no show X minutes before the start of the game, let others purchase the seats at a discount. I would also argue that those who no show and have season passes, they should get dumped to the end of the line for next season unless they call in and cancel ahead of time (maybe give them 1 no show and penalize them after the 2nd time).

Much agreed! When they stated before the Baylor game that it was a sell out, my first thought was, "yeah, let's see how many show up!". Just like the Thunder games, to me, it's not a sell out unless every ticket is scanned entering the arena!

Getting back to the subject, sounds like game time temps will be right around the freezing mark, which is warmer than the Baylor game, plus the sun will be shining so only time will tell!

GFS keeps two snow systems in the forecast. One for just before Bedlam weekend and another that following Tuesday. Accumulating snow with both. Here is the snowfall forecast for the first....

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/11/29/00/GFS_3_2013112900_F192_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Fair weather fans both literally and figuratively.

To be fair to fair weather fans that is common at most schools...remember seeing tons of orange seats available at Gallagher Iba over the past few seasons before Smart came onboard

Sports (http://www.okctalk.com/sports/)

You mean like the amazing Sooner fans that didn't even show up for the last home game? More than the student section was empty. Yet the seats were purchased so the "sell out" record continues. IMO, it should be like airline tickets. If you no show X minutes before the start of the game, let others purchase the seats at a discount. I would also argue that those who no show and have season passes, they should get dumped to the end of the line for next season unless they call in and cancel ahead of time (maybe give them 1 no show and penalize them after the 2nd time).
A less than full student section has been a problem at OU for most home games in recent years... OU really needs to reduce the size of it's student section. But there are many university’s who are having this same basic problem.

A less than full student section has been a problem at OU for most home games in recent years... OU really needs to reduce the size of it's student section. But there are many university’s who are having this same basic problem.

I probably should have saved that comment for another thread. We are getting way off track now, so let's move it to a thread in the sports section and get back to weather. :)

Crickets... Still a possibility for bread/milk watch late next week? :)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image7.jpg[/URL]

Crickets... Still a possibility for bread/milk watch late next week? :)

Indeed. A lot of things still up in the air. Will get more in depth when I'm done with family. :)

Okay well this is earlier than I thought, but everyone is a sleep now so I can sneak away and get this done. :)

Event timeline has moved up dramatically to Thursday/Friday - as outlined by the graphic from OUN. I wanted to see how 00Z GFS has handled this, and it sticks with the earlier time frame. We are still 102 hours out from the start, and NAM only goes out 84 hours. With that, one big note to keep in mind...the GFS has been bouncing around on where it wants to track the storm. I'm talking having it "originate" anywhere from Dodge City to Dallas for the most part. So until we get closer, it will be hard to really nail this down this far out...but that's what we do here. :)

00Z GFS brings in cold air/freezing line by 6AM Thursday. Considering how the cold air acted the last time, I'm inclined to go with the earlier arrival of the cold air. Precip will also be starting about this time as well. I do want to say that the cold pool behind this next big front is massive...coldest air of the season for many people. It'll move in and stick around for several days. Welcome to Winter...well meteorological winter which starts today (the 1st).

Forecast soundings show freezing rain profile at 6AM, sleet at Noon, transitioning to all snow during the evening hours.

Precip forecast has light to moderate rain from SW into Central OK...up to 0.15" of precip.
Heavier precip through Noon ranging from 0.25 NW to 0.75 SE metro.
Through 6PM another 0.10" of precip.
Freezing drizzle or light snow through the evening until a quick moving line of snow drops through, maybe 1-3" with it.

So right now we are probably looking at up to 0.90" of ice/sleet accumulation and then probably 2-4" of snow for the Metro area. Snow amounts will be a bit higher NW, and ice/rain amounts higher to the East and South. We could see a significant ice storm just east and south of the area if the cold air arrives on time or ahead of schedule.

Looking at the 12Z Euro from this afternoon, it is also showing the storm coming through...albeit well delayed compared to the GFS. Euro has this as mostly a sleet/snow event with the freezing line pushing through the area early Friday. Amounts are a bit lighting...around 0.375 to 0.6" of liquid equiv precip...or 3-5" of snow...or 1-3" of snow/sleet.

So right now my thinking isn't that far off from what NWS OUN has put out. Mostly all snow NW, mix through the I-44/Central area and Metro, mostly rain SE. If we see similar solutions tomorrow, then we can probably write this one down as a Bread and Milk Watch worthy scenario. If we see continues consistencies, we'll probably have Winter Storm Watches up by mid day Wednesday. Of course if the model completely change their thinking, then this is all a bunch of letters with no meaning. :)

12Z GFS update...

Continues to bring in a storm for Thursday & Friday. A little bit of everything is on tap so here is the break down as it looks...

Starting after sunrise Thursday through Noon, light to moderate precip will develop over much of OK with the heaviest along/southeast of I-44. GFS has sped up with the cold air some and has it in place before the precip starts in Central OK. Forecast sounding has a profile for mostly snow with some graupel/sleet mixed in for both the first and second wave...with a heavier lean towards mostly snow than sleet.

Worst case precip totals with liquid equiv first and also if it were all snow with no sleet.
Through Noon Thursday: 0.15" NW to 0.35" SE liquid / 2-4" snow
Noon to 6PM Thurs: < 0.05" everyone / 1" snow
6PM Thurs to Midnight Friday: 0.15" E to 0.25" W / 2-3" snow
Midnight to 6AM Friday: 0.35 to 0.5" everyone / 3-5" snow
6AM to Noon Friday: 0.05" W to 0.15" E / 1-2" snow
Snow ends by early afternoon.

Tally it all up... 0.75" to 1.3" liquid / 8-13" snow

Still too many questions, models are too inconsistent to really carve this in stone on amounts.

Most of the winter model graphics are updated now for the 12Z run. You can check them out: Weather Spotlight - Winter Weather Model Comparisons (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/winter.html)

For what it's worth for now, the NWS forecast for frozen precipitation does not exceed 30% from Wednesday night to Friday.

For what it's worth for now, the NWS forecast for frozen precipitation does not exceed 30% from Wednesday night to Friday.

Percentages doesn't equate to amounts. You should know that by now. There is still plenty of uncertainty with the forecasts, which we always disclaim here, and that is why percentages will be low. Not to mention, the 12Z model comes out a few hours AFTER the NWS does their morning forecast update.

Percentages doesn't equate to amounts. You should know that by now. There is still plenty of uncertainty with the forecasts, which we always disclaim here, and that is why percentages will be low. Not to mention, the 12Z model comes out a few hours AFTER the NWS does their morning forecast update.

But I already knew that. I also know full well that the current fairly low percentages on precipt. suggest that the system coming in will not be a very widespread event. It will now be interesting to see if those percentages rise as Wednesday and Thursday get closer. Besides, that I'm shooting for as much of a non frozen event as possible, because I'm supposed to, so far, drive to Enid and back Thursday night.

But I already knew that. I also know full well that the current fairly low percentages on precipt. suggest that the system coming in will not be a very widespread event. It will now be interesting to see if those percentages rise as Wednesday and Thursday get closer. Besides, that I'm shooting for as much of a non frozen event as possible, because I'm supposed to, so far, drive to Enid and back Thursday night.

Sounds more like a personal bias on what you are hoping for. :)

As far as a non-frozen event, not happening. This cold air is deep and it is going to push winter in with a force. Depending on any snowfall/ice cover, GFS does have some morning lows into the single digits by the weekend. I don't buy that as of right now, but we need to watch it.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/12/01/12/GFS_3_2013120112_F150_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

OUN has increased precip chances with their
afternoon forecast. Special weather outlook is up discussing possibility of a winter storm but do mention amounts are still in question...which we already know.

Message deleted as duplicate.

Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement
Updated: Sun Dec-01-13 03:20pm CST
Effective: Sun Dec-01-13 03:20pm CST
Expires: Sun Dec-01-13 10:00pm CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wash ita; Woods; Woodward

Message summary: ...winter storm to affect oklahoma and north texas...
A winter storm is expected to affect oklahoma and western north texas late wednesday night through friday. Although precipitation types and amounts at any specific location remain uncertain...

Sleet...freezing rain and snow appear likely across much of oklahoma and western north texas. A cold front will move through the area tuesday afternoon and tuesday night bringing much colder air. Highs will remain in the 30s in northwest oklahoma on wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s areawide thursday through sunday. Lows in the teens will be common late this week. Wind chill values will be in the teens and 20s during the day and single digits at night. Precipitation associated with this storm system will likely develop late wednesday night and thursday morning...beginning as a wintry mix across central and southern oklahoma and western north texas. Precipitation type across northern oklahoma will be all snow. Although specifics are still uncertain...current indications are that the highest chance of accumulating snow appear to be over the northwest-half of oklahoma...or across parts of oklahoma and western north texas north of interstate-44. The highest chance of accumulating ice will be just south and east of this area...mainly over south-central and southeast oklahoma. There are still large differences in the weather models as far as precipitation amounts...but confidence is fairly high that there could be hazardous impacts from this winter storm...primarily in relation to travel. Residents of oklahoma and north texas should continue to monitor weather forecasts this week as this winter storm approaches and details emerge.
...view the complete message: http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=OK124F2918DE60.SpecialWeatherState ment.124F292580C0OK.OUNSPSOUN.3f2cfea35a6c52901489 146a8f504fc0
Area covered in pale orange:
http://stillwaterweather.com/SWSPdata/MapPlot1385935495.png

So about that...


...suggest that the system coming in will not be a very widespread event...

:rolleyes:

18Z GFS is down a bit on the precip amounts on the 2nd wave, but overall unchanged. So this gives us 4 consecutive runs now of similar solutions. System works onshore into BC tomorrow, so upper air soundings will be able to get a better handle on things.

For giggles...here is the GEM from this morning...

http://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif

http://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_144HR.gif

Thanks for the info. This should be an interesting week

Wide range of precip chances so far for Wed and Thurs

KWTV 80%
KFOR 50-60%
KOCO 20-30%
Weather Channel 10-30%

If ice could just wait until Friday, I'd be much much happier. Still juggling my Thursday, but driving west is a distinct possibility.

If it could all wait til Saturday, I'd be more thrilled. Hometown lads are playing in the 4A finals at Stillwater Friday. I'd like them to
be able to concentrate on the game, not the weather. Plus, everyone getting home safe afterwards would be a big bonus.

Well, I guess if it snows/ices my kids will have more time to prepare for All-State?

The thoughts of a teacher when there is an impending snow/winter storm are totally crazy. You want that snow day, but you know it will set you behind. As a music instructor at this time of year, all you can think about is all-state and concerts. When will you reschedule, will you reschedule, if you don't reschedule, what will your final be? Ugh...just wait until the holiday break lol.

Either way, I look forward to whatever Mother Nature decides. I have snow shovels and salt. My pantry and freezer are stocked, always. Bring. It. On.

How awesome is this fog? I love it!

How awesome is this fog? I love it!

Without much exaggeration this is the thickest fog I've ever seen, but it is super patchy. Norman in-town was just slightly foggy, but I drove east and once east of 24th I could barely see a few feet in front of my car. I tried turning around on 36th and missed the turn despite only going 25 in a 45mph + (I think). Nasty, but fascinating, out there.

I have to get my bread and milk still for this storm. My pantry is nearly empty.

00Z NAM is now running through 6AM Thursday. It has the freezing line very close to the area and with an upper air profile supportive of sleet and/or freezing rain. Light precip developing over SC Oklahoma.

0 miles visibility in OKC right now..

Serious question / serious problem?
The local news/ sports media will be in Stillwater tomorrow for their weekly press conference....

While in town the news media needs to get a statement from OSU officials on how they plan on clearing ice, sleet and snow from 100% of the stadium steps and seating areas and other areas where staff, players and fans will be so that its safe for all these people to walk on?

OU also has a similar press conference tomorrow. OU needs to be ask what precautions will OU be taking to protect their people against this weather hazard.

It doesn’t sound like their will be significant melting in Stillwater for several days.

Does anyone have access to the Euro maps?

Ch 9 already ramping up the Winter Storm hype for the late week period, terming it "likely"....dovetailing it with another one early next week.

Bread and Milk Warning time.

All models are basically in agreement already on this one. 4-6 inches over large part of the state. Likely area for heaviest amounts appears to be eastern OK at the moment. However, this looks to be a widespread event with relatively consistent amounts, unlike what we saw last week with SW OK getting over a foot and the rest of us playing in a trace.


Right now the 4-6 inch coverage looks to be from the Thursday-Friday event. And additional snow accumulation looks possible Sunday evening into Monday as models want to develop another quick low passing through the jetstream.

I would say with the high consistency in models right now, that you can plan on a winter storm later this week. There will be no doubt about cold enough air with this round. If enough precip accumulates Thursday/Friday - we may not get above freezing until late next week as any additional snowpack from Sunday/Monday will only further enhance already cold temps.

Does anyone have access to the Euro maps?

Wx Underground has full public access to the Euro now: WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/)

12Z NAM painting an ugly picture in terms of precip type on Thursday.

850MB temps around 2*C over central OK combined with surface temps around 28*F and heavy precip spells trouble (10AM Thursday).

12Z NAM painting an ugly picture in terms of precip type on Thursday.

850MB temps around 2*C over central OK combined with surface temps around 28*F and heavy precip spells trouble (10AM Thursday).

What kind of trouble are we talking about? Hopefully not an ice storm.

Quick note on the Euro...it matches the cold air arrival times of everyone else, it is just precip amounts that are up in the air right now. It favors what Anon said about heavier accumulations further East.

12NAM is finished through 6PM Thursday and shows a pretty quick shot of precip for the day. Everything gets cranking close to 6AM in SW OK. The freezing line should be SE of I-44 by this time as well. The 3 hour breakdown for OKC...

Through 6AM - Light freezing drizzle. < 0.05"
6AM to 9AM - Mod/Hvy precip S of I-40, Mod precip N of I-40. 0.25" N to 0.5" S.
9AM to Noon - Lgt/Mod Precip NW of I-44, Mod Precip SE of I-44. 0.1" NW to 0.35" SE.
After Noon - light freezing drizzle.

NAM is going almost all freezing rain for C OK with this event. So we could be looking at icing accumulations from 0.4" NW to 0.9" SE...in the Metro area. Pretty much worse case scenario. Ideally we want some colder air moving in upstairs to keep this mostly snow, so we'll see how it trends. Otherwise, this could be a pretty major ice storm for Thursday AM in Central OK. Agree with Anon about going to a Bread and Milk Warning on this. :)

What kind of trouble are we talking about? Hopefully not an ice storm.

Unfortunately, if it were to verify, the NAM would be projecting anywhere between a half-inch to one inch of ice Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon preceding the snowfall that will occur in a second wave late Thursday night-Friday morning.

Quick note on the Euro...it matches the cold air arrival times of everyone else, it is just precip amounts that are up in the air right now. It favors what Anon said about heavier accumulations further East.

12NAM is finished through 6PM Thursday and shows a pretty quick shot of precip for the day. Everything gets cranking close to 6AM in SW OK. The freezing line should be SE of I-44 by this time as well. The 3 hour breakdown for OKC...

Through 6AM - Light freezing drizzle. < 0.05"
6AM to 9AM - Mod/Hvy precip S of I-40, Mod precip N of I-40. 0.25" N to 0.5" S.
9AM to Noon - Lgt/Mod Precip NW of I-44, Mod Precip SE of I-44. 0.1" NW to 0.35" SE.
After Noon - light freezing drizzle.

NAM is going almost all freezing rain for C OK with this event. So we could be looking at icing accumulations from 0.4" NW to 0.9" SE...in the Metro area. Pretty much worse case scenario. Ideally we want some colder air moving in upstairs to keep this mostly snow, so we'll see how it trends. Otherwise, this could be a pretty major ice storm for Thursday AM in Central OK. Agree with Anon about going to a Bread and Milk Warning on this. :)

If Anon and Venture are grabbing the Virtual Getner and going "Bread and Milk" on Monday for a Thursday storm....* GULP *.

If Anon and Venture are grabbing the Virtual Getner and going "Bread and Milk" on Monday for a Thursday storm....* GULP *.

Forget the bread and milk.... I'm stocking up on flour, eggs, and chicken..... I'll take homemade chicken and noodles over bread and milk any COLD day.

If Anon and Venture are grabbing the Virtual Getner and going "Bread and Milk" on Monday for a Thursday storm....* GULP *.
Agreed. Those statements have made me sit up and pay attention.

SoonerDave... Are you the Sooner Dave that is always on the TROW in the morning show? Sorry I think I replied wrong the first time, im new to this site... -Taylor in Tulsa

Anyways back to the Weather,

So far, the forecast models look like it'll effect us here in the eastern part more this time around.. I love winter storms but I don't want it to effect OU/OSU game. BOOMER!

Yuck. I would usually be more excited about winter weather but I am trying to corral family for a funeral on Saturday morning. So this forecast is nothing short of depressing.

I am curious as to why the models tried to rush the cold, and now have sort of delayed the cold air. Don't models usually underestimate how fast a shallow arctic air mass is? Maybe it's just wishful thinking but I don't think any of us want a 1/2 to and 1 inch of ice..YUCK!

12Z GFS coming in now....

Wave 1 (Thursday AM) -- Ice/sleet but lighter amounts than the NAM

Wave 2 (Thursday PM into Friday AM) -- Snow with up to 6-8" just south of the OKC metro.

12Z GFS discussion...

One notable...it has delayed the surface freezing line from moving through the OKC metro until 9AM, about 3-6 hours slower than previous 4+ runs. So we need to see how that evolves. ECMWF/NAM are in agreement on timing as I mentioned earlier.

Metro Precip timeline...
Through 6AM Thursday: Light precip < 0.01". Rain.
6AM to 9AM: Light precip 0.05" - 0.1". Freezing rain.
9AM to Noon: Light east, light/mod west. 0.05" west to 0.15" East. Freezing rain/sleet.
Noon to 6PM: Dry or freezing drizzle.
6PM to Midnight Friday: Light precip 0.01" N to 0.1" South. Snow/Sleet.
Midnight to 6AM: Mod/Hvy Precip: 0.25" NW of I-44 to 0.75" SE of I-44. Mostly snow, maybe a little sleet.
6AM to Noon: Light precip: 0.05 to 0.1". All snow.

Worst case scenario on this one.
Rain: 0.01"
Freezing Rain/Ice: 0.1" NW to 0.25" SE.
Snow: 3" NW to 10" SE.

GFS is a bit further south of the storm system and the moisture.

I am curious as to why the models tried to rush the cold, and now have sort of delayed the cold air. Don't models usually underestimate how fast a shallow arctic air mass is? Maybe it's just wishful thinking but I don't think any of us want a 1/2 to and 1 inch of ice..YUCK!

I would say yes, overall the models are bad at shallow air mass movements. Last week was a good example as it got cold much quicker and colder than expected further south than initially thought. However, forecasts were updated as this was occurring and a lot of people in TX ended up with busted forecasts because the shallow cold air kind of stopped. SO it is really random and I would say it almost has to be nowcasted as opposed to forecasted. This is why it is usually a safe bet to issue watches/warnings like was done last week because forecasting a winter storm and ending up with rain is still a bust. But forecasting rain and ending up with an icestorm that no one is prepared for is a worse bust.

NWS offices tend to err on the side of caution. (appropriately so, IMO).