Amounts around the South Metro/Norman areas are lower on that map and here is why...more sleet forecast for that area (something that may not happen which means higher snow amounts in those areas)...

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_48HR.gif

GFS is drier, again. However I like how it is lining up mostly with the alignment of the accumulating snow areas in OK. WRF has a similar feature, but it offsets it about 50-75 miles further north.

Most of TX is under WSWarnings right now with east of DFW into AR under WSWatches.

I am surprised at the writing off of the NAM. Still putting out up to 8 inches of snow in some spots of SW and C OK.


I believe what the general forecasting thinking here is, the low is going to initially be cranking over the southern TX panhandle and into SW OK, then fizzle out as the main low gets cranking and anchors down in TX where it could put a sleet or ice storm over DFW. If this scenario happens, then the forecast right now by (most) mets will be correct.

This is a more unusual case of forecasting a winter storm because not only are we unsure of the track of this low, but how long it will stay healthy and wrapped up before the new low is established to the south.

Updated WRF snowfall forecast...

http://www.grib2.com/wrf/S-PLAINS_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif

In Stillwater, temp already a bit over 40 and and may exceed expected high of 41. Perhaps it will be a bit warmer than wunderground's expected temp of 34 at kickoff time against Baylor. GO POKES! BEAT BAYLOR!

MR. ORANGEPOWER today on Stillwater Weather (http://stillwaterweather.com)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsCADbB_Gtc

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

Updated WRF snowfall forecast...



Looks like most forecasts are going off of WRF/GFS combined solution. However as trend is more snow further north, advisories may need to be upgraded tonight.

Precip heading through S TX panhandle right now is actually looking healthy and may make SW OK within in the next few hours.

http://www.grib2.com/wrf/S-PLAINS_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_10-1_48HR.gif

FWIW, the GEM puts 4-8 inches of snow over much of OK.

12Z Euro snowfall totals...OKC area

3 Hr Precip Totals
9AM: 1-2"
12PM: 1-2"
3PM: 1-2"
6PM: 0"
9PM: ~1"
12AM: 0" - snow done.

18Z NAM is done through 9PM Sunday. Snow exiting the state and weakening quickly.

3 Hour (Liquid) Precip Totals...OKC area
9AM: 0"
12PM: 0.1"-0.2"
3PM: 0.1" - 0.2"
6PM: 0.05 - 0.1"
9PM: 0" ended

So we do a general 10:1 ratio on this it would be 2.5 to 5 inches of snow. It has pushed the main nose of the heavier precip up into NW/NC OK...but it really isn't all that much more.

Winter Wx Adv updated...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM
CST MONDAY...


* SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND ICE ON ROADWAYS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

18Z NAM snowfall map, showing the push north with the main snow band...

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif

I hate this weather, please skip to Spring!

Hope the "push north" means less snow for okc.

I hate this weather, please skip to Spring!

I think we need a break from storm clean up for awhile. :) Snow at least doesn't rip houses off foundations.

Temperatures back on the decline after touching around 40F for most of the state.

Precip shield evolving in TX panhandle stretching into W OK right now.

I think we need a break from storm clean up for awhile. :) Snow at least doesn't rip houses off foundations.

I rather have a storm clean up, I am tired of scrapping ice off the windows, getting sick, and seeing tons of wrecks on icy roads and I hate driving on ice

Really?

I rather have a storm clean up, I am tired of scrapping ice off the windows, getting sick, and seeing tons of wrecks on icy roads and I hate driving on ice

Yes, "scrapping" the occasional ice off your car is WAY worse than having it totaled from hail...or losing your home to a tornado...or having your house flood...yeah. :Lies:

Anywho, when's the next run?

About an hour we'll see the 00Z NAM trickle in.

Should I go get bread and milk now or will I be OK in the morning?

Should I go get bread and milk now or will I be OK in the morning?

I'd go tonight to get on the safe side already and not have to worry about it in the morning.

I hate this weather, please skip to Spring!


Hope the "push north" means less snow for okc.Oh you guys suck! lol j/k

I want a good blizzard. Some snow would be nice here for awhile.

NAM is up to noon tomorrow so far and looks like it wants to stick to this more northern solution for the heavy snow bad. Still waiting for everything to come in first before diving into it too much.

Well...00Z NAM technically parts the sea and "dry slots" the Metro area. Snow north and south, nothing in the middle at all. I'm not sold on it at all, but NAM is getting really erratic these last two runs which I don't like.

It also pretty much eliminates the "ice storm" for North Texas as well. Crazy stuff.

It was pointed out on twitter and I'll also share here, NAM doesn't have any of the existing precip in W TX right now. So that doesn't really help when it comes to proper initialization.

So basically we don't know how the heck tomorrow is going to play out?

It does have a small band of snow move through Monday before daybreak that could drop a quick inch. We just have to see what the other new model runs show.

GFS remains mostly dry, so no major change there. NWS Norman said they are still expecting 2"+ for metro.

A model I normally like a good deal has this. The HRRR is a short term model, so it is only valid through 10AM right now.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013112401/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Snow spreading east into C OK right now from W and SW. Watch radar trends for where heaviest banding sets up. Right now indications are along I-40 in western OK spreading east will be prime zone.


RAP puts decent snow band along I 40 into OKC.

GFS finally picking up on this precip in OK now and hints at a wrap-around batch with the actual low as the entire event exits. Looks like it is tracking further north than forecasted.

Dry air column finally saturated. Should have heavy sleet then heavy snow in OKC for a good while.

It's happening.jpg

Yup, the sleet actually woke me up.

Better go buy my bread and milk.

Time to wake up I guess. LOL Chat room is going today. SW OK upgraded to warnings...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
654 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2013


OKZ021>023-033>038-242100-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131125T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0004.131124T1300Z-131125T0000Z/
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAW TON
654 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2013


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND ICE ON ROADWAYS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

HRRR Forecast snow fall for today...sleet will keep these numbers down some.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013112412/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Some reports of over 9 inches already in SW OK. Snow is going to start tappering off there though in the next couple of hours.

You can see how the frozen stuff is sticking to bridges and overpasses in this live webcam feed at NW Expressway and Lake Hefner Parkway (image is a screen capture):

SKYCAMS - News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports | (http://www.news9.com/category/201373/skycam-network#integris-cam)

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/sleet112413.JPG

Here is the heaviest snow band right now that has sleet mixed in with it also. It is slowly getting closer to El Reno and Norman.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/nov13/24-1.png

HCA image from the radar showing the precip types...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/nov13/24-2.png

Dry air column finally saturated. Should have heavy sleet then heavy snow in OKC for a good while.

It's happening.jpg

It sure is.jpg :wink:

Sleet coming down steady in Edmond. Crinkle. Crackle. Crickle.

I'd rather have the fluffy stuff. :(

I posted this on Facebook... Wanted to let people in Oklahoma know that those of us in Southern California have been suffering through our own weather trauma... We're in this together!:

iBlDU8e7om0

Snow amounts closer to a foot now in SW OK. This is Mangum from Twitter...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BZ2E1LuCIAIb5PT.jpg

Snow amounts closer to a foot now in SW OK. This is Mangum from Twitter...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BZ2E1LuCIAIb5PT.jpg

Any chance we see half that in Okc

Heavier band is moving in, but it is all sleet down here in Norman. We have to see this change over to snow for that to happen. Hearing more snow the further west and north you go.

So most of the precip should be before 6pm? Hope so cause that should allow for some good work on the roads in time for the morning commute

Yea main precip show is actually almost over. The bulb is overrunning very dry air now over C, N, and E OK. This will choke it out and we will be left with hit and miss pockets of snow showers and sleet. Maybe even freezing rain.


There is a chance we could have another round with wrap-around from main low. But that all depends on its track and any moisture left for it to play with.

Most of the accumulating precip is over now. More scattered/isolated stuff through the day and tonight. Nothing major at all. Heaviest snow was in SW OK with some places around a foot. We stayed mostly sleet here which kept totals way down.

Ideally ODOT and City crews will be out all day today salting so the commute in tomorrow morning will be with out many issues.

Yea main precip show is actually almost over. The bulb is overrunning very dry air now over C, N, and E OK. This will choke it out and we will be left with hit and miss pockets of snow showers and sleet. Maybe even freezing rain.


There is a chance we could have another round with wrap-around from main low. But that all depends on its track and any moisture left for it to play with.

By the time it got to Stillwater, things had pretty much evaporated in that low dew point down to the mid to low teens. There was only enough left to just wet the streets and not complaining about it.

Advisory for C and S OK extended until 1PM tomorrow.

The text...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
159 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

OKZ018>020-024-026-242100-
/O.CAN.KOUN.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131125T1200Z/
KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...
YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...CHANDLER
159 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OKZ023-036>038-250400-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131125T1900Z/
CADDO-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON
159 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST MONDAY...

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY. ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.1
INCH BY MID-DAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADWAYS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL TODAY AND TONIGHT. EVEN SMALL
AMOUNTS OF ICE CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

OKZ025-027>032-039>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-250400-
/O.EXT.KOUN.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131125T1900Z/
OKLAHOMA-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-
STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-
JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...
NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE. ..DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...WAUR IKA...
ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...MADILL.. .DURANT...
QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...
MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...
LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
159 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST MONDAY...

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY. ACCUMULATION BY MID-DAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN 0.1 INCH IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND LESS THAN 0.2 INCH
IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADWAYS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL TODAY AND TONIGHT. EVEN SMALL
AMOUNTS OF ICE CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

18Z NAM keeps precip fairly light for the rest of the day. Some light snow/rain mix moving through now, and some other showers back behind this still. Freezing rain wave tonight doesn't look terrible and might miss much of the metro area. So hopefully road crews keep salting away so the morning drive is easy.

Latest HRRR run is showing the bulk of precip staying in Texas and not coming up through OK overnight. Hopefully that'll be the case as the vertical profile supports freezing rain this evening and overnight.

GFS wants to play some more, mostly with SC OK, but we will see where it sets up.

Looks like the precip over TX is shifting more ENE like HRRR suggested. A couple showers breaking off though going more north. NAM is in agreement with this solution as well, keeping most of the precip in TX or SE OK away from the metro.

Most of the WinterStorm Warnings have been cancelled down in TX. Temperatures too warm. They got bit by the classic temperature line that we normally have to deal with here in OK.

See, it isn't always just us!

Snow amounts closer to a foot now in SW OK. This is Mangum from Twitter...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BZ2E1LuCIAIb5PT.jpg

That got to be fake

That got to be fake

No... 13" has been reported...

No... 13" has been reported...

Well, damn....I pray it will not happen here

Well, damn....I pray it will not happen here

Not with this storm system. All of it pretty much was more south.

Not with this storm system. All of it pretty much was more south.

Good news then

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image5.jpg