GFS verifying so far.

NAM still trying to put precip. out there by tomorrow afternoon.

00Z GFS has some precip tomorrow afternoon, mainly north of I-44...but another area in SE OK.

For Sunday by early afternoon is bring sup a wave of precip over NW to SC OK. It then has it dry until after midnight into Monday. It has a couple bands of precip and wrap around through early Tuesday. The main storm storm is off shore in the Gulf and comes on shore around FL/AL and then curves up the coast as a Nor'easter. NAM seems to want to form the main storm system in the same area as well.

For snow accumulation, GFS has it roughly along and north of I-44 with an area of 1-3" generally, up to 4" in Central OK.

NAM's Sunday snow storm forecast remains.

Tulsa - Stillwater - Guthrie - Kingfisher and west in the line: 1-3"
I-40 Corridor: 3-6"
South of I-40 including Norman - Chickasha - SW to Altus: 6-12" with isolated 14"

Again, the Winter forecast model comparison that I put together is at: Weather Spotlight - Winter Weather Model Comparisons (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/winter.html)

I don't think "bling tie" is looking at this forecast because he shows the heavier snow being north and west of OKC...

WSWarnings in SW KS this morning for stationary snowband as the system ramps up out of Rockies. This is for 5-7 inches of snow this morning.

WSWatches over the Fort Worth/Dallas area for 1-1.5 inches of sleet/snow.


We are still under Winter WX advisories here in OK. Right now we have two areas of freezing rain moving into the state, one in S Central and the other in SW OK.



NAM is still giving main body of OK some decent snowfall as this thing wraps around later this weekend. This model is also trying to slow it down some, so amounts may go up next run.

GFS finally starting to latch onto the same solution. Heaviest amounts look to be SW into C OK.

God save the commuters in DFW if they get 1.5" of sleet...

This was posted 20 min ago from NWS:

Heads up later today especially if travelling! Ice potential may be increasing later today across central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas including the Oklahoma City metro, Wichita Falls, Lawton, Altus, and Ada areas. Appears freezing rain/sleet coverage and intensity will increase throughout the day across central and southern Oklahoma as well as western north Texas, mainly south of a Elk City to Watonga to Perry line.

For the Oklahoma City metro area, significant icing has not occurred yet, but confidence is increasing that a freezing rain and sleet mixture will increase in coverage and intensity around noon, then continue through at least 7 or 8 pm. This will cause slick and hazardous road conditions with temperatures just below freezing this afternoon and evening.

Afternoon/evening rush hour may be significantly impacted by icy roads. Now is a good time to plan ahead.

Ground temperatures over central part of state are falling into the upper 30s.

NW OK ground temps are mid to low 30s.

SE OK ground temps are in the upper 40s.

By tonight pretty much anything falling from the sky to about Monday is going to be accumulating/causing issues.


NW OK air temps have dropped into the lower 20s and teens with precip that moved through earlier.

SW OK is next with this batch of sleet and freezing rain. Look for rapid temperature drops and accumulating ice.

This was posted 20 min ago from NWS:

Heads up later today especially if travelling! Ice potential may be increasing later today across central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas including the Oklahoma City metro, Wichita Falls, Lawton, Altus, and Ada areas. Appears freezing rain/sleet coverage and intensity will increase throughout the day across central and southern Oklahoma as well as western north Texas, mainly south of a Elk City to Watonga to Perry line.

For the Oklahoma City metro area, significant icing has not occurred yet, but confidence is increasing that a freezing rain and sleet mixture will increase in coverage and intensity around noon, then continue through at least 7 or 8 pm. This will cause slick and hazardous road conditions with temperatures just below freezing this afternoon and evening.

Afternoon/evening rush hour may be significantly impacted by icy roads. Now is a good time to plan ahead.

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/960053_658119080875689_444453418_n.png

YAAAAaaay...

Decent size area of freezing rain and sleet in SW OK. Looks like it should be entering into the Metro area by Noon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2035.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-CNTRL OK


CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION


VALID 221600Z - 222000Z


SUMMARY...MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS SWRN
INTO CNTRL OK INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.


DISCUSSION...SUBTLE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE
APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR RASH OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
EVOLVING ACROSS NORTH TX INTO SRN OK. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS A
MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS EVOLVED OVER NWRN TX/SWRN
OK. MEAN FLOW WOULD FAVOR THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.


12 SOUNDINGS FROM OUN/AMA/MAF ALL EXHIBIT A VERY WARM LAYER THAT
WILL ENSURE AT LEAST A MIXED PHASE OF PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS NWRN TX AND
THIS WILL ENCOURAGE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIP RATES. LATEST WINTER ALGORITHMS SUGGEST ICE
PELLETS WILL BE COMMON EARLY ACROSS SWRN OK BUT FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS NOT AS COOL AS POINTS WEST.


WHILE MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-44...AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN TX
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/DEVELOP INTO SRN OK BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES
COULD EXCEED .05 INCHES PER HOUR.


..DARROW.. 11/22/2013

Man, this is getting really tricky. I had plans to go to Lawton this afternoon along w/son's HS football team, but the OHP is reporting the area is becoming "slick and hazardous" on I-44 between Chickasha and Lawton and I REALLLY would rather not have a wreck; concerned about them getting down there safely, too. Think this round of freezing precip is a bit larger than was expected.

Man, this is getting really tricky. I had plans to go to Lawton this afternoon along w/son's HS football team, but the OHP is reporting the area is becoming "slick and hazardous" on I-44 between Chickasha and Lawton and I REALLLY would rather not have a wreck; concerned about them getting down there safely, too. Think this round of freezing precip is a bit larger than was expected.

This is pretty much the NAM solution working out for the most part, but a bit delayed. Not worst case scenario that it had, but still going to be tough.

Radar snap shot....one main area of SW OK is moving NE, and another area in NW TX is starting to fill in and moving NNE to join up with the other area. This is all freezing rain with some sleet. So it is going to be pretty tough in the areas this all goes over.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/nov13/22.png

For those who like to do nothing on Friday while at work, we are in the chat room this morning. :)

Weather Spotlight - Live Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

Roads are reported to be slick and hazardous just SW of OKC per CH 9

Time to warm up the de-ice truck!

Rain/sleet entering much of the Metro area now. Rain extends all the way back almost to Lubbock now. A second area is still increasing and moving up into SW and SC OK. Once the precip starts it looks like it will be a consistent 6+ hours of icing for the areas in the direct path of the rain.

Don't be shocked to see some counties upgraded to a winter storm or ice storm warning as amounts may approach and go just over the threshold.

It looks like this is getting ready to move in. How will the roads look at 4PM?

It looks like this is getting ready to move in. How will the roads look at 4PM?

Based on the short term models, things will be pretty rough then. This main band should push out by 6PM, with scattered showers behind it. Subject to change though as the development keeps occurring further to the west.

Latest NAM and GFS is lighter on snow amounts for Sunday/Monday. However they still put a narrow band of heavy stuff ranging from SW to C OK.

sleeting pretty good here at the airport

Looks like mostly sleet north of I-240...mostly freezing Rain in around Norman.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/nov13/22-1.png

Heavy sleet at Britton and May.

Heavy sleet at Britton and May.

Heavy sleet in Edmond. Ice pellets and wet roads. Roof tops on homes are becoming white. My driveway already has a layer of ice on it. Be very careful out there!

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/nov13/22-2.png

Jiminy frozen crickets... sleeting like crazy in Edmond.

The temp is about 29F.. not good. It's sticking to the grass, which is white in spots from the coverage. The main roads are fine due to traffic, but some of the back roads/neighborhood streets could be getting pretty slicko. And *all* the roads here are going to be an issue later this evening and overnight. Yikes. :(

Venture, is it mostly sleet all over the metro or are there spots of freezing rain?

Mostly sleet. As warmer air in the upper levels keeps pooling up, it will change to freezing rain overtime

Basically if this development train kind of anchors down over SW OK and NW TX and keep streaming waves of precip. Things could get more dangerous as we continue this event.

Base on the mPING reports, mixed throughout the metro. Here in Norman we are light to moderate rain/sleet mix.

Just cold, rain and windy here in FTW. 35 degrees.

Northern batch starting to lose its punch pretty quickly now, with heavier precip developing over by Tulsa. Looks like the southern area will struggle to make it to I-40, but freezing drizzle and some sleet will be mix in from time to time for the rest of the day.

OU Sooners ‏@UofOklahoma (https://twitter.com/UofOklahoma)1m (https://twitter.com/UofOklahoma/status/403978298419466240)
The OU Norman campus will close, except for essential services, at 3:30 p.m. today (Friday, Nov. 22). Classes after 3:30 p.m. are canceled.

Pretty big droplets of water coming down in the quail creek area about 10 minutes ago. That can't be good for the power lines.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/nov13/22-3.png

All the City offices are closing at 3PM today.

Devon and OU in Norman have both closed for the day.

Heavier freezing rain moving through Norman and the south metro area now. It might make it up to South Moore, so just be careful when driving south.

One more batch of precip moving up from SW OK...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/nov13/22-4.png

So guys, how is the forecast shaping up for Saturday/Sunday/Monday? Is it too far out to really know?

18Z NAM is back with a decent snowfall. N of I-40 has 2-4", S of I-40 is 5 to 8".

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_60HR.gif

18Z GFS brings up amounts a bit, but it is mostly sleet and freezing rain again. GFS brings a wave of precip up through SW OK but then kills it off before it gets to C OK.

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_66HR.gif

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_66HR.gif

I have to be in MWC tomorrow morning at 7:45. Poop. Best/safest routes from NW OKC?

So many frozen anemometers, lol.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustbarbs.gif

Additional icing could be somewhat significant for the south metro through the next few hours. Heavier rain and sleet moving into north Norman right now.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/nov13/22-5.png

00Z NAM is finished through Sunday. Upper air profile is perfect setup for snow crystals. Total QPF is around 0.5" liquid equivalent. I would not be shocked to see the overnight shift issue Winter Storm Watches for much of Central and Western Oklahoma.

UPDATE 1: Couple more hours added to the forecast run. Looks like it wants to bring a secondary area through Central OK overnight and early MON AM. Could drop another 0.2" of liquid. Using the basic 10:1 ratio we would probably be looking at a 4-8" storm total snow for Sunday/Mon AM. The other big news it that the DFW Metroplex could get nailed big time by this storm as well. Some areas could see nearly 2" of liquid and they'll be below freezing...which is nasty either as ice or snow for that area. WSWatchs already up for that area.

By 6PM Sunday...

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif

By 6AM Monday...
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_60HR.gif

GFS forecast is naturally drier than NAM, again. So we can figure out who is right with this next one.

GFS brings in a wave of snow in the afternoon on Sunday, roughly 1-2" at the most. Second wave, like NAM, is further SE and drops another 1-2 around Ada and McAlester.

Well I'd have to say the NAM definitely won round 1. From Tuesday on it was running colder and wetter than the GFS (which said we'd be above freezing for most of today as recently as yesterday morning). So I'd have to lean toward the NAM and the WRF for round 2 as well.


GFS forecast is naturally drier than NAM, again. So we can figure out who is right with this next one.

GFS brings in a wave of snow in the afternoon on Sunday, roughly 1-2" at the most. Second wave, like NAM, is further SE and drops another 1-2 around Ada and McAlester.

Sad thing is we are supposed to go to Dallas for the annual margarita ball tomorrow night but we are probably going to have to call that off as coming back Sunday looks to be an iffy proposition.

Well I'd have to say the NAM definitely won round 1. From Tuesday on it was running colder and wetter than the GFS (which said we'd be above freezing for most of today as recently as yesterday morning). So I'd have to lean toward the NAM and the WRF for round 2 as well.

That's how I'm leaning right now. GFS just hasn't proven its worth right now. Was NAM completely right? Not totally...but GFS also said the my oak in the front yard wouldn't be touching the ground right now. LOL

Do you have the new Euro snow maps to show?

Do you have the new Euro snow maps to show?

00Z Euro is roughly... 1-2" Central, 2-4" West with a pocked of 4-6" in WC OK.

Thank you! How about the E side of the state?

Thank you! How about the E side of the state?

Euro doesn't have much of anything over there.

I have the NAM, GFS, and WRF displayed here: Weather Spotlight - Winter Weather Model Comparisons (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/winter.html) These are all 00Z and 12Z images. I'll get another page for the 6Z/18Z runs.

Of course now that the advisories are about to expire, freezing rain and sleet is redeveloping over western half of OK again. Main concentration in NW OK.

Man driving to Dallas on Sunday morning to meet my family from Houston is going to be a fun trip, hope they can keep 35 clean. Are we insane for even keeping this trip scheduled?

Winter Wx Adv is where they are going for Sunday into early Monday. The text...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING.


* PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.


* SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND ICE ON ROADWAYS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

The new NAM is remaining pretty juiced up. Total precip amounts still have a high number from 0.9" in the SW to around 0.7" here in C OK to 0.6" in EC OK. The good news for the Monday commute is that all of this is forecast to be out of C OK by 7-8PM except for some occasional freezing drizzle or scattered light snow through Monday AM - nothing that will accumulate much of anything.

I tell ya, if the NAM verifies even at 50% there will be a lot of busted forecasts tomorrow.

I tell ya, if the NAM verifies even at 50% there will be a lot of busted forecasts tomorrow.

Completely agree. It has really stuck to its guns with this. However, I remember last year where GFS was similar and changed 12 hours out and that solution verified. So who knows. I favor consistency though.

12Z NAM snowfall forecast...amounts are a bit more reasonable for C OK, still higher than currently forecast.

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_36HR.gif

Roads are completely dry this morning (at least in the NW quadrant of Oklahoma County. I was pleasantly surprised with that since I work Saturday mornings. Got to work 25 minutes early!