I think people are really trying to divide the words major and significant, when they are used interchangeably very easily when dealing with weather.

Major Hurricanes...cat 3 or higher are still major hurricanes even if they only mess with the fish.

Significant icing is still anything going over half an inch.

A severe weather Outbreak for someone could be 2 tornadoes and some hail reports, for us...it's Tuesday.

Major/Significant is going to be used to describe winter events based on the criteria set by the National Weather Service. If people disagree with that, then you can provide feedback to them.

Also the Feb 20/21st storm this year...was pretty tough for the SE Metro area...Venture, I understand what you're saying completely, just the pure fact that this did not cause widespread power outages across the city and even in rural areas and didn't coat the road in ice, makes it less than a major storm for me.

I've been in 3 blizzards in Alaska, one of which dumped 8ft. of snow. Yeah, I've experienced intense blizzards. I was in one back in November of 2011 that had the strength of a category 2 hurricane and had waves and surges of over 10 feet high. I know how destructive they can be.

I stand by my point that comparing a tornado to a blizzard is stupid.

Plupan, the problem is that you are wanting to use your own definitions of weather events instead of those already established. You can certainly do that but most people are going to go with venture's terms instead of yours.

In spite of how many people you know around the state, there is this:

http://newsok.com/power-outages-reported-across-the-state/article/3916872

This thread has made a major turn for the worse.

Plupan, the problem is that you are wanting to use your own definitions of weather events instead of those already established. You can certainly do that but most people are going to go with venture's terms instead of yours.That's fine. People can use whatever term they like, that is beauty of living in a free society. I respect Ventures knowledge of weather, however, I hold my opinions of what I determine to be a major ice storm.

If you think this ice storm was major, cool, I don't. I never once stated that I wanted people to believe my views of the significance of a weather event, just putting in my 2 cents. Anyhow, there you have it, you know what I think, I don't want to derail this thread anymore. This will be my last post on this issue.

WTF happened here? I leave for a day and THIS?!?!

That's fine. People can use whatever term they like, that is beauty of living in a free society. I respect Ventures knowledge of weather, however, I hold my opinions of what I determine to be a major ice storm.

If you think this ice storm was major, cool, I don't. I never once stated that I wanted people to believe my views of the significance of a weather event, just putting in my 2 cents. Anyhow, there you have it, you know what I think, I don't want to derail this thread anymore. This will be my last post on this issue.

Again you can have your own opinions and that's fine. In these threads I'll stick to the official criteria for classification. If you don't like it, I'm not the one to complain to...but these threads (at least the main monthly discussions) are not the place to conduct this back and forth. Free society or not...no excuse to derail this and taking down a path it doesn't need to be. We have our own weather section now - start a new thread.

Regardless time to move on as there is no constructive discussion going on anymore and we don't need this even more derailed.

Back to weather...

Light Snow moving through the metro now will be done soon. Most of it is now east of I-35. Looks like the only mPING reports were from Moore and Norman.

Not so fast for me though, it still could get worse according to NWS:

"Increasing wind speeds tonight and tomorrow will continue to result in falling tree limbs, trees, etc. Very little ice will melt as temperatures remain at or just above freezing for most locations. Power outages will still be possible as a result. If you live an area where significant icing occurred last night (say about 0.25 inches or more), please be careful and prepare for possible power outages. Here's a look at maximum sustained wind speeds (mph) for Sunday afternoon around 1 PM. Gusts will be around 5-10 mph stronger."

https://scontent-a-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/1513338_672946402726290_376000375_n.png

https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Norman.gov/posts/672946556059608:0

Again you can have your own opinions and that's fine. In these threads I'll stick to the official criteria for classification. If you don't like it, I'm not the one to complain to...but these threads (at least the main monthly discussions) are not the place to conduct this back and forth. Free society or not...no excuse to derail this and taking down a path it doesn't need to be. We have our own weather section now - start a new thread.

Regardless time to move on as there is no constructive discussion going on anymore and we don't need this even more derailed.Ha and you contributed to it lol

Anyways, you make a fair point, which is exactly why I stated I would no longer respond to anymore off topic posts and I'm not. Stick to your criteria and do your weather reports, I appreciate it as do many others. Thank you Venture.

Ha and you contributed to it lol

Anyways, you make a fair point, which is exactly why I stated I would no longer respond to anymore off topic posts and I'm not. Stick to your criteria and do your weather reports, I appreciate it as do many others. Thank you Venture.

There is a difference with responding with facts and examples than personal opinions when discussing something in a thread based on scientific measurements and established criteria. Again, we provide these threads as a service and because we enjoy doing them. If people don't like them, there is the Weather Channel and KFOR for the more exciting dramatization of weather. :)

Moving on...

Wind is the big story tonight and how it will impact limbs and branches with a significant amount of ice on them still. Mesonet unfortunately is worthless to use tonight since they are all frozen. LOL AWOS reporting stations have winds approaching 15 mph in the Metro area now...most areas are down around 5-10 mph though.

OG&E right now has 4758 customers in the Metro area without power, over 9600 systemwide. Largest number right now for the metro is in Norman with over 1100 out.

Some more light snow moving down from the NW...NW sides of the metro could see some light snow next hour or two.

Wind is the big story tonight and how it will impact limbs and branches with a significant amount of ice on them still. Mesonet unfortunately is worthless to use tonight since they are all frozen. LOL AWOS reporting stations have winds approaching 15 mph in the Metro area now...most areas are down around 5-10 mph though.



I checked wunderground and found nearly all their reporting stations in the OKC and Norman areas apparently had frozen anemometers, since they were showing 0 mph. In Stillwater, with less ice, my anemometer didn't freeze to a stop, but my neighbor's mini windmill did. Interesting how some AWOS stations are not frozen.

Power outages have jumped about 2,000 customers since my last post. 11,749 system wide with 6654 in the Metro. Highest number will be over 2800 now in Norman and over 1200 in South Central Oklahoma City.

Temps are falling right now and tomorrow will struggle to get above freezing. Winds are forecast to be 15-20 mph tomorrow so additional power outages are going to be likely with falling tree limbs.

At the end of the GFS forecast window, it has been pretty consistent on a large mass of arctic air in the Prairie provinces. 00Z GFS starts to bring this down around the 6th of January. Now - this is at the very end of the forecast window and we know how crazy it is most of the time. So take this with a grain of salt for right now.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/12/22/00/GFS_3_2013122200_F384_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

Power is starting to go in and out now here in East Norman.

At the end of the GFS forecast window, it has been pretty consistent on a large mass of arctic air in the Prairie provinces. 00Z GFS starts to bring this down around the 6th of January. Now - this is at the very end of the forecast window and we know how crazy it is most of the time. So take this with a grain of salt for right now.



A big dip in the jet stream in the central part of the country helps explain the current situation. Hopefully, unless you want more strong winter, the jet stream won't be as cooperative for January's cold air buildups. At least, for what it's worth, this map doesn't show below normal average temps in nearly all of Oklahoma for the month of January.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif

Let me just put it out there that as I have grown older, I have developed a disdain for this weather. Pure hate. If it weren't for the amazing people of OKC I'd be ready to move to Maui. And this is coming from someone who works in the weather business.

Let me just put it out there that as I have grown older, I have developed a disdain for this weather. Pure hate. If it weren't for the amazing people of OKC I'd be ready to move to Maui. And this is coming from someone who works in the weather business.

Not me...every time I see that kind of scary woman living 200 miles north of the Arctic Circle, I think 'she has the best life ever...' I wish the storm woulda been lots worse, including a foot of snow on top of this ice and the southern end of the jet stream anchored with iron spikes about San Antonio so it'd just keep reinforcing. Til April.



But, it is what it is.

A big dip in the jet stream in the central part of the country helps explain the current situation. Hopefully, unless you want more strong winter, the jet stream won't be as cooperative for January's cold air buildups. At least, for what it's worth, this map doesn't show below normal average temps in nearly all of Oklahoma for the month of January.

Be careful how you read that map because it isn't a lock saying there will be above normal temps, just that there is a slight probability higher that there will be versus an equal chance of either above or below normal.

December 22 2013

Just happened to look out the window in time to snap these.

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7352/11504293244_e0114ac58a_h.jpg

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5514/11504266085_3f04fb2697_h.jpg

Natural christmas lights!

The Point At Which One Attempts To Find A Bit of Beauty Between The Graphs of Prediction and Reality
https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1396966_625148784199057_1911587346_o.jpg
In Honor of The Celebration of Pre-Christmas (with Ice)

(the neighbor's semi-abandoned trampoline--in the background--is the perfect spot for a skating rink for vagabond birds)
(plus, the photo-op sort of made up for the unfreezing of the pickup truck doors and the scraping of the windshield =)

December 22 2013

Just happened to look out the window in time to snap these.


What is the word for "beyond excellent" in terms of photography?
Thank you.

Jingle Bells . . .
https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1496540_625148120865790_2039714923_o.jpg

Took a few snaps myself the last couple of nights, thought this one was kinda cool.

5552

Okay, here are a few more images i snapped...hopefully full size rather than thumbnails this time. Hope you like 'em :)

http://i1326.photobucket.com/albums/u641/TheCrazyPhotoGuy/DSC_4780_zps284fcb6f.jpg (http://s1326.photobucket.com/user/TheCrazyPhotoGuy/media/DSC_4780_zps284fcb6f.jpg.html)

http://i1326.photobucket.com/albums/u641/TheCrazyPhotoGuy/DSC_4777_zps4c16cf54.jpg (http://s1326.photobucket.com/user/TheCrazyPhotoGuy/media/DSC_4777_zps4c16cf54.jpg.html)

http://i1326.photobucket.com/albums/u641/TheCrazyPhotoGuy/DSC_4757_zps2a62360e.jpg (http://s1326.photobucket.com/user/TheCrazyPhotoGuy/media/DSC_4757_zps2a62360e.jpg.html)

http://i1326.photobucket.com/albums/u641/TheCrazyPhotoGuy/DSC_4719A_zpsd127bf8b.jpg (http://s1326.photobucket.com/user/TheCrazyPhotoGuy/media/DSC_4719A_zpsd127bf8b.jpg.html)

People can say what they want, but it is pretty darn beautiful out there with the ice. Unfortunately it'll start melting today as we get above freezing - maybe? Of course that also means ice will start falling off of elevated items and structures. :-/

I think I experienced the worlds weakest snow storm earlier this morning at the new Crest in Norman lol

NWS revised the high temp forecast today...from 35 down to 28. Mid 40s tomorrow (maybe) will kill off any pseudo white Christmas we would get from the ice. Well...unless you make one of these anyway...

cOYtjfxA7nw

Next storm up on our plate looks to be around New Years.

I was noticing that, but seemed pretty dry. Not that the models have been great with moisture return...or cold air...or with really anything lately. :)

Next storm up on our plate looks to be around New Years.

Aaron Tuttle over on Facebook was saying the same, talking about that and a long term forecast for January that includes colder temps and a wetter period.

12Z GFS for Jan 2nd... it'll be all snow per the sounding temps.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_prec_240.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/GFS_12_240_35.38;-97.34.gif

Looking at roughly one two consecutive runs of the GFS with snow in Oklahoma around the 2nd. The previous 00Z has it up into MO and the previous 18Z has it over in AR.

12Z Snowfall forecast...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/12/23/12/GFS_3_2013122312_F252_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Man long range GFS is so entertaining. :)

Oh Em Ge... LMAO

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_prec_228.gif

Freezing Fog Advisory up for Western OK.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013


OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044-TXZ083>089-241145-
/O.NEW.KOUN.ZF.Y.0001.131224T0400Z-131224T1500Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-
CUSTER-BLAINE-BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-COTTON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-
BAYLOR-ARCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT...
WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERF ORD...CLINTON...
WATONGA...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...HOLLIS...
MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON...WAL TERS...QUANAH...
CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...
KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY
945 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013


...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...


* TIMING: OVERNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.


* VISIBILITY: FREQUENT VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE.


* IMPACTS: THIN LAYERS OF ICE WILL FORM ON EXPOSED SURFACES.




PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


IF YOU ARE DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE
PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

Well the last two GFS runs takes our New Year's storm either off to the southeast or has it all a cold rain. Not like we need to start worrying about until the end of this week. :)

Potential winter storm for next week is still out there. GFS is taking it further south with the main storm system tracking mostly onshore in Southern California and over through Central Texas. ECMWF doesn't go out far enough yet, but through the period it does cover it is even further south with the storm not coming on shore until it is down over the Baja.

GFS does have this as a major nor'easter though by the weekend following New Years - so keep that in mind if you have travel plans and the forecast evolves.

Some consistency with the forecast though.
1) It keeps a major storm system developing and moving from the southern plains to the southeast and up the east coast.
2) A lot of moisture with this storm, but that isn't rare in these longer range forecasts with GFS.

So if we take those tow points and we translate it further north with the path of the storm actually going across North Texas, then we would be looking at a pretty substantial snowfall. Of course that also assumes that ample cold air will be in place with the moisture and the storm isn't moving too fast.

Saw an interesting sight today. Was heading into Bethany on 39th/66 and as we got to the bridge on the north side of Lake Overholser, everything was covered in 1-2 inches of snow. It was beautiful. It only extended to about 1/2 way to Council. Later spoke to a lady who works in Bethany and she said early this morning it was snowing heavy in that area. But it was just a few block radius. Lake effect snow? OG&E and lake effect snow? Regardless, it was pretty.

I want to say I've heard of it before from a power plant's exhaust when temps are cold enough you can get snow out of the moisture. I believe it's happened over there before.

Here is a pic from this morning just east of Lake Overholser. 5590

00Z GFS takes next week stop WAAAAAAAAAAY south...like south of Texas south. So enjoy the holidays and we'll worry about it next week. :)

Freezing Fog Advisory is up for counties along/north of I-44 for tonight/tomorrow morning. Be careful for black ice developing on elevated surfaces.

Norman's year in review...

https://scontent-a-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/1512502_674636679223929_1802916208_n.png

Possibility of some light snow on Sunday as a storm system comes through. Otherwise dry for the rest of the year it would appear.

I am sad we will not break the precipitation record.

Looks like New Years storm dead and we are looking around Jan 6ish.

New Years storm trying to backtrack back to the northwest. Models will have better handle once this cold front comes through this weekend.

GFS has us snow free through the first 10ish days in January. However, it is building a lot of cold air in Western Canada that might flood down by mid-January.

GFS has us snow free through the first 10ish days in January. However, it is building a lot of cold air in Western Canada that might flood down by mid-January.

So does flooding cold air equal snow?

So does flooding cold air equal snow?

Not without moisture. Still way to far out to see if we'll have any moisture in here. There are 3 chances of precip coming up where there should be moisture in the state, but most of it will be Eastern OK. Still some very light precip around here or extremely slight chance...

Jan 7th - Light Rain
Jan 10th - Light Snow/Sleet
Jan 12th - Light Rain

When I say extremely slight...max precip amounts are around 0.03 to 0.05" of liquid...and most, again, is well east of I-35. We'll see what happens.

Not without moisture. Still way to far out to see if we'll have any moisture in here. There are 3 chances of precip coming up where there should be moisture in the state, but most of it will be Eastern OK. Still some very light precip around here or extremely slight chance...

Jan 7th - Light Rain
Jan 10th - Light Snow/Sleet
Jan 12th - Light Rain

When I say extremely slight...max precip amounts are around 0.03 to 0.05" of liquid...and most, again, is well east of I-35. We'll see what happens.

So, unless something changes, no big deal.

I am already shuddering at what I'm seeing in terms of record-breaking cold in mid-late January. Have I mentioned I hate cold weather?

Too early to talk snow chances with this, though we might see a few inches with the system and cold air moving in - in the middle of January. The big headline will be this...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/12/28/12/GFS_3_2013122812_F312_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

Remember to go outside today at 6:12pm and look NW to see the ISS.

Could have some freezing drizzle around tomorrow morning. Nothing major.

Overall...the "quietest" year with tornadoes nationally since before 1953. Law of averages...it'll probably be a busy year next year if we look at the trends since 2004.

Oklahoma was above average this year with 72 tornado and our average is just over 55.

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/1549214_792553660761599_214542116_n.png

Tropical systems and US landfall also is a huge contributer to total tornado counts in the USA. And it is no secret that this year, the tropics were relatively quiet, yet again.



On to OK. Chances of passing snow showers looks to be slightly on the rise for Thursday into Friday, right now it looks like N/NE OK has the best shot, but some white stuff is worth monitoring.

12Z Euro bringing in snow chances north of a line from Woodward - Fairview - Perry - Bartlesville. General 1-2 inches. 12Z GFS covers the north 2 rows of counties from TX to AR with generally 1" or less. Maybe 1-2" when you get into far NE OK near the KS and MO borders.

Tropical systems and US landfall also is a huge contributer to total tornado counts in the USA. And it is no secret that this year, the tropics were relatively quiet, yet again.



On to OK. Chances of passing snow showers looks to be slightly on the rise for Thursday into Friday, right now it looks like N/NE OK has the best shot, but some white stuff is worth monitoring.Wasn't the quietness of the tropical season due to a dust plume off of Africa? I have heard that multiple times now.

Overall...the "quietest" year with tornadoes nationally since before 1953. Law of averages...it'll probably be a busy year next year if we look at the trends since 2004.

Oklahoma was above average this year with 72 tornado and our average is just over 55.


Yet the 2013 season, for the OKC metro, was the worst in history. When you combine the casualties of the May 20th storm and the May 31st storm I believe it was greater than May 3, 1999. The property damage this year blew 1999 out of the park.

Hopefully 2014 is a bit quieter for the metro.