Your welcome Soonerman! And I'm here in Tulsa too, so I will definately be watching the trends. 5-7 days out...there is going to be a lot of changes.

We don't get slammed often here, so I think we can handle a slamming every so often and around Christmas makes it even better.


unless you have to travel/drive somewhere to be with family :–(Or you have to get out and work in it.

Everywhere is predicting different things... I know it's normal, heck last winter storm they didn't know exactly until it hit.... Going off of current model trends, which is most likely?? Anonymous or Venture, could you possibly post each GFS or any model each time you update so we can all see what's going on?? Thanks a lot guys, keep up the good work!

Are you talking about the graphics part of it so you can visual it? Shouldn't be a problem...but might make the thread pretty graphics intensive. :)

Venture/David.... Yes just a visual of each updated graphic... I'm ok with making it graphic intensive lol

Venture/David.... Yes just a visual of each updated graphic... I'm ok with making it graphic intensive lol

Alright...I'll try to include a few screenshots of the Euro (since there aren't any direct links) whenever I post the new update this afternoon.

Ok, thank you... Could you include the GFS too??

Of course. I'll also be making a better side-by-side comparison page for the various models for my website as well. I'm trying to not make the width of the page too terrible - but may not be avoidable for something like this. :)

Sounds Great! Thank You Sir!!

This is what the Euro is showing: I'm praying for a Southward trend and MORE COLD!!! Just click on the picture to make it bigger:)
5433

Where'd everyone go?? haha

The likelihood of this becoming a cold rain/freezing rain event is looking more likely...hoping for colder air! But, yea, lol where did everyone go?

such a beautiful day outside, hopefully everyone's getting outside and off their computer!

Freezing rain? Please no.

Still waiting for a few more consistent runs before worrying about this. Definitely no where near any bread and milk talk unlike the previous storm. :)

Probably do a full run down later tonight.

So I wanted to add to the discussion a bit more. The 18Z GFS is mostly in now. This is just 6 hour precip totals ending at midnight Sunday morning - sorry 11:59PM Saturday. ;) It can be easy to pick out the inconsistency of this forecast not only just for us...but look at it back east. These are images from just the last 4 runs (last 24 hours) and how much it varies over that time frame should help everyone understand why I'm being pretty reserved on this right now.

Another thing to point out is the surface temp forecast. I can be hard to see on this, but when you go from that aqua/greenish color to the lighter blue is the 30 degree isotherm. There is a white line in there that is the 32 degree isotherm. You can see how much it has changed the temp forecast in the last couple of runs.

00Z Runhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_prec_144.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_temp_150.gif06Z Runhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_prec_144.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_temp_144.gif12Z Runhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_prec_138.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_temp_138.gif18Z Runhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_prec_132.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_temp_132.gif

Inside reasonable GFS and GEM time windows for some prelim amounts.

Right now GFS is too warm for accumulation over main body of OK, then storm dumps snow in E KS into W MO. About 4-6 inches.

GEM is colder and further NW with storm track. Putting 4-6 inches in NW OK.


Battle of the 32F looks to be an MVP in this storm.

Nothing indicating a major winter system, but that won't disrupt the hype machine. I. Don't. Get. It.

Want an example? Check out payne's tweet. "3 days left. Get your shopping done. Arctic air arrives Friday." His "9 day" has the words "polar plunge" and "winter storm" in it. Scary scary stuff! Not sure if we will survive!

Want an example? Check out payne's tweet. "3 days left. Get your shopping done. Arctic air arrives Friday." His "9 day" has the words "polar plunge" and "winter storm" in it. Scary scary stuff! Not sure if we will survive!

Geez. What a twit.

Next question: You follow David Payne on Twitter?

Want an example? Check out payne's tweet. "3 days left. Get your shopping done. Arctic air arrives Friday." His "9 day" has the words "polar plunge" and "winter storm" in it. Scary scary stuff! Not sure if we will survive!

Hey. I went out an bought milk tonight if that says anything.

Ignore the fact that I was out and wanted cereal. LOL

Just a quick update based on the 00Z Euro that is in now, so nothing very technical here - all high level stuff. It is maintaining a setup more favorable setup for a NW OK heavy snow storm. The graphic below focuses on the winter portion of the storm, but keep in mind in most locations this will start out as all rain. Switch over will take place as cold air filters down behind the storm and we see heavy snow develop in the wrap around.


Snow is in the area in white. I also shaded a blue area to indicate the area the Euro tags as most likely to see heavy snow near 12"+. I also drew a purple line around the area where winds will be up around 30-35 kts which would translate to 35-40 mph. This would meet the criteria for blizzard warnings.


South of the snow area is the pink shaded winter mix/icing area. OKC icing would start around 3AM Sunday. QPF for the OKC metro area will be around 0.25 to 0.40". Higher north and less south. There could also be an area near or NW of Lawton that could see up to a half inch of precip. NWS Norman uses the criteria of 0.25" of ice or higher for an Ice Storm Warning. It very could end up being the I-44 counties and one row south would be in advisory parameters and then north of there ice storm warning levels. However, it is way to early to really try to lock down totals and predict how things will work out.


Forecast confidence at this point is up to about 30% for me and will probably jump higher if the 12Z Euro comes out in a similar solution again. The 00Z GFS is overall worthless right now as it tries to kick the closed off low through way too fast when there is literally nothing to push it along. We'll revisit things more by tomorrow afternoon and see if the language needs to click up a notch or two.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/dec13/winstormdisc-1.png

Will be happy to know the KFOR machine has not been turned on so far...I missed Mike last night but this morning Emily is going with cold rain Sat transitioning quickly to snow overnight...Mentioned some accumulation possible with the heavy snow in KS

No mention of the dreaded three letter word

I think there are quite a few people jumping the gun a little. IF we get colder air here in Tulsa or OKC we could really get dumped on.. Some trends I've seen seem to suggest that there could be more here in the Tulsa area/NE part of the state... Heck who knows? We're still several days out. This could also just be rain Friday and Saturday then come Sunday we get one of those "one day" winter storms...

Also, I noticed yesterday that the 0 degree line is forecasted to be just to the NW of a OKC to Tulsa line... That line will probably change a few times, and with it being sooo close it's kind of hard to predict anything right now... It's looking like one of those "we won't know until a couple of hours before" storms.

I think there are quite a few people jumping the gun a little. IF we get colder air here in Tulsa or OKC we could really get dumped on.. Some trends I've seen seem to suggest that there could be more here in the Tulsa area/NE part of the state... Heck who knows? We're still several days out. This could also just be rain Friday and Saturday then come Sunday we get one of those "one day" winter storms...

That's what the general population just doesn't get. These models are just that - computerized approximations of what might happen based on history, physics, with a hint of varying kinds of scientific bias here and there. There's no way they can offer the kind of precision some folks would like. The science just isn't that precise, yet even so, they do a pretty darned good job of giving us a decent heads up when things are likely to change. FOlks looking for a forecast of "How much snow will be on the sidewalk at SW 104th and Western at 4pm Tuesday" are never going to be satisifed, because there's no forecast that precise even 24 hours out....as much science as their already is, it's still also a very peculiar form of art.

SoonerDave... Very well put sir! I'm not sure if you answered this already or not but are you the sooner dave that is on The Toby Rowland Show in OKC (TRow in the morning show)? Just wondering cause I live in Tulsa and listen to there show every morning haha just a question

GFS is a little strange this morning. Will have to see how the next run goes. Right now it is still too warm in most of the body of OK for winter precip until 'too late'.

GEM has moved snow further east, but keeps it in KS and MO, too warm in OK.

Approaching NAM window, so we will havemore information the next couple days.


Looking further than this storm. There looks to be a 'clipper' type systems come through on Christmas Day and another apocalypse on New Years.

SoonerDave... Very well put sir! I'm not sure if you answered this already or not but are you the sooner dave that is on The Toby Rowland Show in OKC (TRow in the morning show)? Just wondering cause I live in Tulsa and listen to there show every morning haha just a question

LOL No, not me, typically at work during the days so I don't get to call in on any of the sports shows...alas... But if someone would like to find a previously undiscovered radio talent please drop me a line!!! :)

Norman's first statement on the upcoming situation...

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...


CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND AMOUNTS AT ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN...FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO THE 20S TO 40S BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OKLAHOMA...AND RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE ENDING.


ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA...OR GENERALLY ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.


AFTER THE STORM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BY MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MELTING OF ANY SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION.


THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER MODELS AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
COULD BE HAZARDOUS IMPACTS FROM THIS WINTER STORM...PRIMARILY IN
RELATION TO TRAVEL. RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS THIS WEEK AS THIS WINTER
STORM APPROACHES AND DETAILS EMERGE.

You know, I wish statements like the above from the NWS were simply repeated or posted more often, because I don't think there's a more level-headed way of expressing the proper concern than as was expressed in that release. No panic, no hysteria, just a fair warning that there's a decent chance at some winter weather this weekend, even though exact details are just not possible to pin down. Bottom line - just keep aware of what's going on. That's the responsible way to inform - not inflame - the public.

bottom line - national weather service isn't trying to get ratings!

Model Output Discussion from WPC...

...CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN CA ON THURSDAY...
...SYSTEM EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF OF CA/SEA OF
CORTEZ BY FRIDAY EVENING...


PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE/06Z GEFS MEANS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE


SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST. THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF TIME...THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET ARE THE DEEPEST SOLUTIONS ALOFT BOTH SHOWING A 540-DM
HEIGHT CONTOUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CATALINA ISLANDS. OVERALL
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN SOME SLOWING RELATIVE TO THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z GFS WHICH ACCELERATED
AHEAD OF ITS PRIOR CYCLE. MOST IMPORTANTLY...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
HAVE EXHIBITED A SLOWING TREND...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE/GEFS MEANS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO ACCELERATE
THESE SYSTEMS TOO QUICKLY TO THE EAST...HAD PLANNED ON GOING WITH
THE SLOWER PIECES OF GUIDANCE. THIS FAVORS THE 00Z ECMWF ALONG
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE/06Z GEFS MEANS. DEFINITELY PLAN ON
STAYING AWAY FROM THE FASTER MODELS WHICH INCLUDES THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z UKMET.

The 12Z Euro...

Precip Chances start to increase late Friday around 6PM over SW OK. There will be a chance of light rain earlier in the day across Eastern OK, so for you folks over my Tulsa you'll get a little wet. By 9PM Friday precip will stretch from Sallisaw back to Wewoka to Chickasha and Hollis. All light and well under 0.175" in most cases. From 9 until 11:59PM Friday precip rates increase along and south of I-44. most areas 0.1" to 0.25". All of this is rain with surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. Precip will continues through 3AM Saturday and gradually shift north some. It will remain fairly light with another tenth of an inch for most areas. By 6AM the precip is along and north of I-44 with the heaviest (in this area) from Stillwater to El Reno to Hobart. Additional moderate to heavy rain will develop over SE OK south of a line from Ardmore to Ada to McAlester to Fort Smith. All liquid - no snow or ice. Through Saturday will remain the same story. Moderate to heavy rain in places - some locations getting 1-2 inches of rain. Everyone is above freezing until Sunday morning.

Winter Impacts...
Sunday at 12:01AM we start to see freezing temps enter NW OK. Central OK will be dryslotted at this time as the main storm system starts to pull out. Wrap around will be on going over Northern, NW OK and the North TX PH. Maybe an inch of snow back over the panhandles through this time. It looks like wrap around will continue through mid day on Sunday and then dry out quickly. Euro has zero precip in the Metro on Sunday. We will get below freezing here around daybreak it seems.

Snowfall impacts look like this:
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/dec13/winstormdisc-2.png

This is a shift North and Northwest of the snow by approximately 50-75 miles compared to the 00Z run from last night. So I would expect it can still fluctuate a bit, but as of right now it just looks like a cold and wet (miserable) Saturday in much of the state. We'll see how this starts to compare to the NAM and GFS as we get closer in. The main storm system hasn't been sampled by a lot of weather balloons yet and really won't be until Thursday/Friday when it finally comes all the way inland in Southern California. So as the new data comes in, a lot can change with it.

Thanks, Venture. I'm really wishing this confirms. :) I'll be in the sweet spot in Chicago. Let it snow.

Highly doubt the news stations will mention this.

Thanks, Venture. I'm really wishing this confirms. :) I'll be in the sweet spot in Chicago. Let it snow.

Should make O'Hare and Midway fun for travelers. LOL

OH...and bring me back some Giodano's. Great thanks. ;)

It's all over. They are now downplaying it as just a thunderstorm. No winter storm. No ice. No snow.

Meh...another brown Christmas in Oklahoma. Damn it.

Meh...another brown Christmas in Oklahoma. Damn it.

Picteresque dead grass and red dirt...Stuff postcards are made of

Picteresque dead grass and red dirt...Stuff postcards are made of

Yep. And temps that are too cold to do anything outdoors and not cold enough for a fire. Ho ho ho.

(one year til retirement and moving somewhere the winters try to kill you...)

I wouldn't count this one out just yet.

Picteresque dead grass and red dirt...Stuff postcards are made of
I for one love dead grass and red dirt. And temps above 35.

I wouldn't count this one out just yet.

Of course not. Payne is still hyping it up. 100% winter storm.

Models keep saying warm air is going to win. And they're pretty consistent the last 3 days in doing so.

GFS still keeping cold air (snow) to the north.

Looks like Wichita is gonna be fun this weekend!

If the forecast holds this will be a great storm for the winter wheat crop in both OK & KS.
This time of year there is nothing better for the wheat crop than several inches of wet snow.

Ut O... The Euro says hold on 1 freakin' second Oklahoma!! Moves a good portion of Northern OK back into frozen territory!

Easy Amber...we need consistency. :) I personally don't expect models to have a handle on this until Thursday. However, to show what Amber is talking about...

Below is QPF around 9AM Sunday. The yellow line is the 32°F isotherm. Everything north of that is ice/snow south if rain.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/dec13/winstormdisc-3a.png

Snowfall for the same time period. The outermost band is 1-2" and it steps up form there. So we are looking at 1-2" south Metro to 3-4" Northwest Metro. Depending on how much precip actually is falling during this time frame, that could also mean some higher probabilities of icing from I-44 and SE until temps get too warm.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/dec13/winstormdisc-3b.png

Again, we have seen the frozen precip area wabble a lot for the last few runs. We'll see this continue until things get locked in a bit better on Thursday. At least I'm hoping. LOL

Picteresque dead grass and red dirt...Stuff postcards are made of

hey i've got an all fescue yard, i mowed on xmas day while waiting on a Thunder game to start a couple of years ago

OUamber, Venture, and Anonymous.... What's the update on the weather this weekend... Got any maps and updates??

Models keep saying warm air is going to win. And they're pretty consistent the last 3 days in doing so.

GFS still keeping cold air (snow) to the north.
Let's go warm air!

a couple weeks ago someone mentioned torching snow to get it to go away. Saw this:

Fargo, ND – Local resident Todd Fox has been detained for “reckless endangerment” and “illegal use of high-powered fire-breathing weaponry” for attacking snow with his flamethrower. Fox reportedly became so fed up with the week-long blowing snow epidemic in his area that he decided to KILL IT WITH FIRE.

The neighborhood was treated with quite a show last night as Fox unleashed an inferno upon the mountainous snow palace that was his front yard. Neighbors to his immediate right and left noticed a bright orange cloud and could hear what they thought was “puff the magic dragon spewing mayhem all over hell”, which prompted one of them to notify police.

Fox stated that he was simply “fed up with battling the elements” and that he did not possess the willpower necessary to move “four billion tons of white bull ****”.

Police say that Fox surrendered his efforts immediately upon their arrival and that his front yard “looked like a hydrogen bomb had gone off”. They think he was just happy to be done with snow removal, even if it did mean a trip to jail.

That is the funniest story I've heard of all year!

I would say if you are fed up with snow, especially this early in the season, North Dakota probably isn't the state for you. LOL

Reading the other office's special weather statements on the storm. Everyone is in limbo on the situation.

This is going to be a last minute call based upon temperature profiles in the various layers as the event is ongoing. I think the only ones who have a good shot at getting it right could be the mets in E/NE KS.

Perhaps we will have a better idea tomorrow as we see the progress of the arctic air come in tonight in the northern part of the country.

So started to make some headway on the design for a new page that compares each publicly available model's snowfall amount per run. I also have it broken down by time frame or forecast hour out. It is a start and I'm sure I'll rework it a bit, but please feel free to shoot back any feedback for me.

Weather Spotlight - Model Comparisons - Snowfall (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/modelsnow.html)

New Euro has snow chances for Saturday still roughly North of I-40 west of OKC and north of I-44 going east. Lighter south and higher NW.

So we are looking at a cold rain and possible lingering snow flakes? Time to call in the national guard!

First signs of the cold air moving into Montana and North Dakota.

NAM putting snow band well into W KS.

GFS sticking with snow NC OK and riding up through E KS then heavy in NW MO.

First signs of the cold air moving into Montana and North Dakota.

NAM putting snow band well into W KS.

GFS sticking with snow NC OK and riding up through E KS then heavy in NW MO.

Weather channel (:)) showing high 46 with low of 32 on Saturday. Don't think we will have anything but rain. 70% chance according to them.

Friend of mine in Columbia Mo. told me that they are predicting heavy 2-3 inches of ice for them. It's looking more and more like the freezing stuff will be north of OKC