While you all are discussing Jim Traber and MM...did anyone see the 12z GFS?!?? Looks like an icy/snowy fun for the entire area Dec 21st-23rd:)

While you all are discussing Jim Traber and MM...did anyone see the 12z GFS?!?? Looks like an icy/snowy fun for the entire area Dec 21st-23rd:)

We need some run to run consistency before I'm getting excited. Right now it is popping this solution out 1 out of 4 runs. It just has no handle on what the moisture feed is going to be like. The only real constant is having the precip over Eastern Oklahoma, but even that isn't all that fixed yet. Hopefully things can settle down over the next couple of days.

Yep, next couple days will move it out of long range window and we can see what we have.

Local weather personalities are but one reason I don't watch the local TV news. The "news" consists of the police blotter, the weather departments are in a hype-driven arms race for viewers (from jet helicopters to fleets of "storm trackers" to poor reporters doing standups in the snow on Broadway Extension to show us that it's snowing). With constant interruptions by furniture stores and car dealerships.

Finally, you they don't offer a complete and concise weather briefing any longer, they provide teasers: "How much snow will we get tonight? How cold will it be in the morning? Will you need chains on your tires this weekend? Do you need an umbrella tomorrow? I'll have the answer after the break."

And the 18Z GFS is completely dry again except for some very light precip, <0.1" QPF over eastern Oklahoma. This is why we don't raise alarm to such an inconsistent situation.

I can get better scientifically based weather forecasts here that are backed up with the latest model data. I get that commercial free, without the iridescent neckties, the on-air pants crapping, and graphics that wipe out my entire 52" diagonal viewing area.

As for MM, it's all been said. He stands disgraced, yet somehow, inexplicably, he still stands.

I find natural phenomena to be the best indicator of weather.

Are of light rain moving through SW OK. Will be in the metro area here in a couple hours. Nothing significant. Temps *SHOULD* remain above freezing as it moves through overnight.

Are of light rain moving through SW OK. Will be in the metro area here in a couple hours. Nothing significant. Temps *SHOULD* remain above freezing as it moves through overnight.And it did stay above freezing. One more down. Thank you mother nature.

With talk of the 21st and run to run model consistency, I wanted to show examples. This is from the last 4 model runs for the morning/early afternoon of the 21st.

They all show a significant storm, but the placement can be in question. However, looking at this the obvious thing is that 3 out of 4 runs have a lot of heavy precip well to the east of us. Only one solution has it near/over us.

Yesterday's 18Z
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_216.gif

Last Evening's 00Z
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_204.gif

This morning's 06Z
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_204.gif

This morning's 12Z
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_192.gif

With talk of the 21st and run to run model consistency, I wanted to show examples. This is from the last 4 model runs for the morning/early afternoon of the 21st.

They all show a significant storm, but the placement can be in question. However, looking at this the obvious thing is that 3 out of 4 runs have a lot of heavy precip well to the east of us. Only one solution has it near/over us.



Just curious, since it's just out of the graphic, what do these same models show for precip in Chicago/west Michigan? (That's where I'll be. :) )

Venture,

So basically...we need the front to speed and the precip to slow down to have a good chance at snow, correct? And as it's predicting right now, that's not looking so good..correct?

So much can change with these winter systems. Just remember last Christmas when Oklahoma was supposed to get a blizzard and it was all east of the state. It's obvious there will be a storm but whether there is enough moisture for major precip in Oklahoma remains to be seen. Worth watching this next week though.

although wintry/cold weather is on tap a week from now, i'll definitely enjoy the 50's and 60s next week!

It's already starting. A mom came into my work saying that it's suppose to snow for 6 days straight next week. I'm so going to laugh if the weather guys are completely wrong just like last year when they blew it totally out of proportion!

Just curious, since it's just out of the graphic, what do these same models show for precip in Chicago/west Michigan? (That's where I'll be. :) )

Right now it has it all as snow, so it could be a pretty good storm for them so people can get out their snowmobiles and cross country skies. :)


Venture,

So basically...we need the front to speed and the precip to slow down to have a good chance at snow, correct? And as it's predicting right now, that's not looking so good..correct?

Amber - pretty much, but the front is essentially carve the moisture out as it comes down, so we need the overrunning moisture behind the front. Right now it looks like it'll be pretty dry.


So much can change with these winter systems. Just remember last Christmas when Oklahoma was supposed to get a blizzard and it was all east of the state. It's obvious there will be a storm but whether there is enough moisture for major precip in Oklahoma remains to be seen. Worth watching this next week though.

Models have the same issue in the spring. I can't count how many major tornado outbreaks you see at the end of the model forecast windows and then when that day shows up, the storm system doesn't even exist. :)


although wintry/cold weather is on tap a week from now, i'll definitely enjoy the 50's and 60s next week!

I'm alright with it getting into the 50s a bit, but I'm just hoping no 70s like we normally see for a few days every winter. I really wish I was about to put one set of clothes away and focus on another. LOL

It's already starting. A mom came into my work saying that it's suppose to snow for 6 days straight next week. I'm so going to laugh if the weather guys are completely wrong just like last year when they blew it totally out of proportion!

Yeah no idea where they are getting that from. LOL Chance of light rain next Thursday...maybe...but then nothing until the system on the 21st that might give us a shower as the front comes through - at least that is how it looks now.

Midnight the 22nd per the 18Z GFS - actual, just more of the same of the flip flopping. Graphic one is surface temps and then QPF on the 2nd.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_temp_204.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_prec_204.gif

If you would like 3 days of constant sleet/freezing rain and snow for next weekend, then you are gonna LOVE the OOZ GFS!!!

There is something with this 00Z time slot that makes the GFS want to blast Oklahoma. LOL

So the 25% chance forecast based on the "consistency" of the 00Z runs of the GFS... (yes I'm bored to be wasting time on this right now)...

Remember QPF is total precip when melted down/liquid form...

12PM Friday 20th - Precip develops along/south of I-44. < 0.1" QPF - cold rain
6PM Friday 20th - Light precip continues, develops further back to the NW. < 0.1" QPF - Freezing rain/Rain mix
12AM Saturday 21st - Light precip. <0.05", Freezing rain
6AM Saturday 21st - Very light precip, < 0.05", Sleet/Freezing Drizzle
6PM Saturday 21st - Light/Mod precip, 0.10 to 0.25", Snow/Sleet
6AM Sunday 22nd - Light precip, < 0.1", Snow
6PM Sunday 22nd - Precip Ending, ~ 0.01", Flurries

Worst case right now...
Freezing Rain/Ice = 0.2"
Snow = 2-4" w/ Sleet mix

Basic winter weather advisory levels, so really not a horrible worst case. It'll change in 6 hours. :)

Does anyone have the Euro maps? I hear it has that same storm.

Does anyone have the Euro maps? I hear it has that same storm.

It has the same system, but well off to the east.

WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/)

Uh oh! Jump back time, the 12Z run for GFS actually has precip in Central OK now. LOL The 6Z did to a point...but had us dryslotted with all the heavy stuff West and East. Hopefully, as Anon stated a couple days ago, we can start getting some run to run consistency now as we get closer.

12Z GFS
Cold air arrives on Friday with freezing line through the metro by 6PM.
By 6AM Saturday - Light freezing rain along, south of I-44. < 0.05" precip.
6AM to Noon - Light freezing rain continues, mainly south of I-40. Heavier as you go further south. < 0.05" precip.
Noon to 6PM - Sleet and Freezing Rain, much heavier in SE OK as previously shown. About 0.10" precip.
6PM to 6AM Sun - Sleet, Freezing Rain, and Snow. Again heavier east. About 0.25" precip or 1-2" of snow considering all the mixing. Precip will end during hte morning on Sunday.

Uh oh! Jump back time, the 12Z run for GFS actually has precip in Central OK now. LOL The 6Z did to a point...but had us dryslotted with all the heavy stuff West and East. Hopefully, as Anon stated a couple days ago, we can start getting some run to run consistency now as we get closer.

12Z GFS
Cold air arrives on Friday with freezing line through the metro by 6PM.
By 6AM Saturday - Light freezing rain along, south of I-44. < 0.05" precip.
6AM to Noon - Light freezing rain continues, mainly south of I-40. Heavier as you go further south. < 0.05" precip.
Noon to 6PM - Sleet and Freezing Rain, much heavier in SE OK as previously shown. About 0.10" precip.
6PM to 6AM Sun - Sleet, Freezing Rain, and Snow. Again heavier east. About 0.25" precip or 1-2" of snow considering all the mixing. Precip will end during hte morning on Sunday.

So Saturday and part of Sunday will be messy? Works for me!

Does anyone have the Euro maps? I hear it has that same storm.

For something fun European, by using the drop down menu, you can get the Norwegian Meteorological Institute's forecast for Oklahoma City through Dec. 24 in combo with another forecast, an animated one, based on the National Weather Service here: yr.no-yowindow Combo Forecast (http://stillwaterweather.com/yrno.php)

Your thoughts on this?

5328

Your thoughts on this?

5328

Pretty small, even opening it up in a different window. What does it say?

Pretty small, even opening it up in a different window. What does it say?

Doom and gloom. Major storm system moving right across the metro with just about everything you can think of.

Doom and gloom. Major storm system moving right across the metro with just about everything you can think of.

I keep thinking of how many times the models are going to fluctuate between now and then...

Can you post a link to the original image? Too hard for my crap eyes to see.

Can you post a link to the original image? Too hard for my crap eyes to see.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=651833468213316&set=a.265977580132242.68174.265970463466287&type=1&theater&notif_t=photo_reply

Does this have any chance to become a blizzard?

Perhaps blizzards need a ranking system like hurricanes have?
The worst of OKC blizzards would rank pretty low on a CAT scale.
They can be much worse just 100 or so miles northwest of OKC.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=651833468213316&set=a.265977580132242.68174.265970463466287&type=1&theater¬if_t=photo_reply

Looks like .01 to .25" of ice. Not a harsh storm. Hopefully the ice goes away...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=651833468213316&set=a.265977580132242.68174.265970463466287&type=1&theater&notif_t=photo_reply

Thanks. It is just GFS that we have been talking about for awhile now. Nothing new.

That page though...wow the political/religious banter is strong over there. Yeesh. What's wrong with just keeping a weather site about...I dunno...weather? LOL

Does this have any chance to become a blizzard?

Perhaps blizzards need a ranking system like hurricanes have?
The worst of OKC blizzards would rank pretty low on a CAT scale.
They can be much worse just 100 or so miles northwest of OKC.

To the first question - no. Forecast surface winds only about 10-15 mph. You need 35+ sustained for 3 hours.

To the second question - there would be no agreement on how to rate it. Hurricanes you have wind. Blizzards officially have multiple criteria they can be defined by. Snowfall, wind speed, etc. By definition a blizzard is when you have winds over 35 mph for the sustained period causing blowing or drifting snow that reduces visibilities to less than a quarter mile. You could have a snow storm dump 12 inches of snow with 10 mph winds - not a blizzard. You could have a storm drop 1 inch of snow but have 40 mph winds where visibilities are reduced = blizzard.

It is just too subjective and the conditions can be very localized when it comes to blizzard conditions. There just isn't any gain to public awareness when you start putting category numbers in the same way you do hurricanes. Much like there is no gain to naming winter systems.

Peaking at the 12Z Euro/ECMWF that came in this afternoon...

OKC drops below freezing Friday morning and remains that way through Saturday (end of its forecast window).

Some light right before 6AM Friday ahead of the front. Following the frontal passage...

By 6PM - Light precip, up to 0.05"
6PM Fri to Midnight Sat - Dry Central, light precip east.
Midnight to 6AM - Wave 2 develops behind the system. Precip spreads up from West TX. ~0.05" here in Central OK, heavier SW.
6AM to Noon Sat - Light/Mod precip, range 0.1" Edmond to 0.25" Norman. Heavier Southeast.
After Noon precip is done and off to the east.

Euro keeps this mostly sleet and freezing rain, very little snow. Amounts it is putting out are well below warning criteria.

00Z GFS has it mostly rain now, maybe some sleet mixed in for late the 22nd into the 23rd.

The 12z Canadian as well as the Oz Euro look similar while the 12z GFS is out to lunch and hanging the low up. Basically, if those two varified, Oklahoma would have a pretty good ice storm...YUCK! I can't post a map right now, but maybe later.

Glancing around all weather sites except for the 3 locals aren't throwing out much scary stuff next weekend...Norman weather center has 20% on Fri and 30% on Saturday with highs in the mid 30's

So quick model compare...

18Z GFS is nearly all SE of I-44. Impacts to the Metro from this run is some light rain Fri/Sat and ending quick. That's it.

12Z Euro...

Keeps the Metro above freezing (at the surface) through early Sunday afternoon. It does have snow accumulation back to the NW on Saturday into Sunday that could be several inches. For the Metro looks like mostly rain and then Sunday morning go to snow. This is the amount by Noon Sunday, with nothing else after this time frame.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/dec13/15-1.png

00Z GFS is Armageddon for Oklahoma. We need to see what the next 2-3 runs look like before getting excited. Right now its inconsistency with the entire setup this coming weekend puts any confidence in the forecast VERY low.

Just came to post. V beat me to it. That is an epic precipitation party this weekend.

Hopefully it verifies and happends.

00Z GFS is Armageddon for Oklahoma. We need to see what the next 2-3 runs look like before getting excited. Right now its inconsistency with the entire setup this coming weekend puts any confidence in the forecast VERY low.

Venture, given the inconsistency with this run as a caveat, exactly what are the parameters for "Armageddon?" That is, what kind of precip are we looking at? Or do even hesitate to put that much stock in it at this point?

Hopefully it verifies and happends.

Fine as long as it's rain. Otherwise, bite your tongue.

Here ya go Dave. This is data output from the 00z GFS. Pie in the sky at this point for sure but expanding on Venture's post a bit we'd be looking at 6"+ in the metro.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/12/16/00/GFS_3_2013121600_F180_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

And here's an associated image of total precip during that timeframe:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_180.gif

The GGEM, Euro, and Ukie all take the storm further north. GFS is alone or trying to catch up. This would put snow axix into KS and points NE from there. Chicago would be a direct hit. Cold rain for OK as the low crosses right over us.

The GGEM, Euro, and Ukie all take the storm further north. GFS is alone or trying to catch up. This would put snow axix into KS and points NE from there. Chicago would be a direct hit. Cold rain for OK as the low crosses right over us.


Yes, this is what we're going to have to keep updated on. Right now GFS takes the low all the way through CA into Mexico and drags it directly up over NW TX into OK. This is the classic scenario for most of Oklahoma's biggest snow events.

This morning's run continues the trend of slamming OK. We will have another set of data in about 3 hours from now to go off of.

We don't get slammed often here, so I think we can handle a slamming every so often and around Christmas makes it even better.

unless you have to travel/drive somewhere to be with family :–(

So if one has an outdoor, several-hours, bike and run event scheduled for this Saturday beginning at 2:00 p.m., how soon do we alert the troops that this will be postponed/cancelled/moved to a cozy bar somewhere?

So if one has an outdoor, several-hours, bike and run event scheduled for this Saturday beginning at 2:00 p.m., how soon do we alert the troops that this will be postponed/cancelled/moved to a cozy bar somewhere?


Use your own discretion in terms of how much notice the group/event needs. But I would say by Thursday evening, we should have a pretty good handle on broad storm details. But as this thread's history shows - daily updates will be posted here by multiple members. Also I am sure local mets will latch onto any doomsday trending.

Use your own discretion in terms of how much notice the group/event needs. But I would say by Thursday evening, we should have a pretty good handle on broad storm details. But as this thread's history shows - daily updates will be posted here by multiple members. Also I am sure local mets will latch onto any doomsday trending. Which is why I follow these threads for my weather info, and give little credence to the news mets. I prefer my weather Dragnet style.

00Z Euro Discussion

12AM Sat - Precip increases over Oklahoma, mainly along and just south of I-44 to OKC and then along/south of I-40 out to FSM (Fort Smith). Trace to 0.175" of precip. Temps in the low/mid 30s. Type: Rain.

12AM to 3AM - Continue light precip, some isolated areas up to 0.25" Some areas west of OKC on I-40 drop below freezing, so freezing rain in those locations and rain elsewhere.

3AM to 6AM - Light precip (under 0.175") with focus north of I-44/40. Freezing rain over north of I-44 and north of a line from Tulsa to Enid. Liquid elsewhere.

6AM to 9AM - Light precip Central and East. Precip steady NW to SW OK. Some freezing rain still NC OK, rain elswhere.

9AM to 12PM - West of a line from Altus to Clinton to Ponca will have light to moderate precip - heaviest in West Central OK. Mostly rain, surface temps above freezing.

12PM to 3PM - Light/Mod Precip West of I-35/44. Looks like all liquid still.

3PM to 6PM - Moderate precip West/Central, Heavier East. All liquid.

6PM to 9PM - Moderate to heavy precip almost statewide. Lighter amounts over SW OK. Below freezing NW with that mostly being snow (2-3"), liquid elsewhere.

9PM to 12AM Sun - Dryslot over SW, SC, and Eastern OK. Wrap around from NC into Central OK. Precip mainly light. Temps below freezing from Altus to Norman to Tulsa. 1-3" of Snow NC OK, freezing rain/sleet from Stillwater to Norman.

unless you have to travel/drive somewhere to be with family :–(

Leave earlier..

Leave earlier..

unfortunately, not an option. tight travel window this year. of course, it could always get me out of going to the in-laws!

The 12Z GFS looks to have jogged a tick to the NW. Temps are still too warm, and therefore the snow is in MO and points NE of there. The 996mb Low tracks right over the Arklatex area, and yes, this is usually a sign a major snowstorm for OK...however...temps will be the issue.

Everywhere is predicting different things... I know it's normal, heck last winter storm they didn't know exactly until it hit.... Going off of current model trends, which is most likely?? Anonymous or Venture, could you possibly post each GFS or any model each time you update so we can all see what's going on?? Thanks a lot guys, keep up the good work!

Just to show you what I'm talking about. You will notice the 0 degree line comes in after the majority of precip goes through OK.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_138_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

We need to be wishing the cold air gets here faster...

ouamber... Thanks for the map! I notice the 0 degree line its just to the NW (of us here in Tulsa). It being that close i'm sure it'll likely change. These things always freak out, especially 5 days out. I understand all the weather stuff, just don't have any maps to really go off of... Thank you ma'am!