Burning 3-4 snow days this early on in the Antarctica season is certainly less than ideal but ya gotta do what ya gotta do

Weather guy on Facebook saying we might be looking at freezing fog tomorrow morning. Please tell me he is wrong

In case anyone is interested, here is the correct method for measuring snowfall: How to Measure Snowfall Correctly | Suite101 (http://suite101.com/a/how-to-measure-snowfall-correctly-a78360)

Some of y'all are really, really odd.
As for myself, I'm counting my blessings that some business matters west and southwest of me resolved when they did. Some of those drives were more than long enough at dry pavement speeds.Odd indeed. obviously they don't have any responsibility for clearing this mess off of drives, parking lots and walks. Or worrying about the idiots that will sue because you didn't clear everything off properly and they fell. Usually because they took some side path that no one would think to shovel/de-ice. They must just get to sit back and watch it snow while downing Hot Buttered Rum.

Odd indeed. obviously they don't have any responsibility for clearing this mess off of drives, parking lots and walks. Or worrying about the idiots that will sue because you didn't clear everything off properly and they fell. Usually because they took some side path that no one would think to shovel/de-ice. They must just get to sit back and watch it snow while downing Hot Buttered Rum.

I wouldn't say odd. Some people like winter weather, some like the hot balmy weather. I prefer a mix, but growing up up North definitely has me seasoned for winter weather. As far as cleaning off drives and such. Up there it was the law your sidewalk had to be clean with in a few hours of the snowfall ending or the city would ticket you. So mine has been clean for a couple days now. :)

The red line is 32°F, the green line is 0°F. Amazing?

http://i.imgur.com/dtJenei.gif

So what you're saying is I should move to Florida.

I shoveled off my drive and side walks off on Friday.
I have 3 different types of shovels that I use to shovel snow.
I just bought a new ergonomic snow shovel that really work well on the powdery snow.
If I ever get filthy rich I will install a geo thermal heating system under my driveway and side walks at a new home.

...
If I ever get filthy rich I will install a geo thermal heating system under my driveway and side walks at a new home.

Was checking on someone yesterday who doesn't drive at all, just making sure all is well. Saw the neighbor as I was leaving. Neighbor was finishing the clearing of his short, steeply sloped driveway. Had a big propane tank, about 10-12 foot or so of fuel hose and what he called a roofing torch. Chatted a bit, watched a bit, then came home and wrote me up a new Santa letter.

Not really sure I'm going to buy one yet, but I already have tanks for the grill. If I can find one for less than the 150 he ballparked, I may not be able to stop myself.

Harbor Freight has them for under $40
Propane Torch with Push Button Igniter (http://www.harborfreight.com/propane-torch-with-push-button-igniter-91037.html) not the highest quality brand name but they work great for the little I use it for, also great for burning weeds in the summer.

Snow shower band getting more estabished in N OK. May see developmen push slightly south, but this one may be too far north for OKC fun.

Was checking on someone yesterday who doesn't drive at all, just making sure all is well. Saw the neighbor as I was leaving. Neighbor was finishing the clearing of his short, steeply sloped driveway. Had a big propane tank, about 10-12 foot or so of fuel hose and what he called a roofing torch. Chatted a bit, watched a bit, then came home and wrote me up a new Santa letter.

Not really sure I'm going to buy one yet, but I already have tanks for the grill. If I can find one for less than the 150 he ballparked, I may not be able to stop myself.

I do the same thing when we get ice, neighbors drive by looking at me like I'm crazy but I'm the redneck out having fun w/ a minature flamthrower - I picked mine up at home depot for $50-$60 - Harbor Freight has them as well

mine does serve other purposes such as starting the fire in the smoker from time to time as well

New band of flurries trying to develop just S of the I-44 line.

Nice would be band of snow right over Central OK...but lower levels just way too dry.

Any ideas on the extended outlook end of this week and next week?

Any ideas on the extended outlook end of this week and next week?

Here's the 9 day from OK Weather Tracker:

http://oklahomaweathertracker.com/okc7day.jpg

Source: William Cole's Oklahoma City 9Day Forecast - OklahomaWeatherTracker.com (http://www.oklahomaweathertracker.com/okc-9day-forecast.html)

Any ideas on the extended outlook end of this week and next week?

Looks like next winter storm worth mentioning is around 22nd-24th.

Looks like next winter storm worth mentioning is around 22nd-24th.

Cool, Just in time for Christmas!!

Looks like next winter storm worth mentioning is around 22nd-24th.

I hope that materializes. I would love a good winter storm right around Christmas. I'm as happy as a pig in slop with this weather.

Snow shower bands increasing in W OK. May get some development infill going as this drags across the state. Perhaps some snow by 5pm commute looks possible in OKC area.

Looks like next winter storm worth mentioning is around 22nd-24th.

Hopefully not a flop like last years Christmas storm. It does look cool and dry for most of the central region until then (if it materializes). The storm track will be well to our north.

Looks like next winter storm worth mentioning is around 22nd-24th.
Thanks for putting this out.... I hope you and others will keep leting us know about possible future storms this far out even if the confidence is not strong..If it turns out wrong I'm not going to hold it against any WX person. The folks have got to be smart enough to know that a forecast can change.
This type of information helps me and others plan trips and other activity’s.


:o

Thanks ultimatesooner and BlackmoreRulz. The neighbor of my friend is, I presume, in the roofing business. His seemed commercial grade and well used.

I do truly doubt I need one anywhere near that substantial, but, boys and their toys as they say. It definitely caught my attention.

Snow shower bands increasing in W OK. May get some development infill going as this drags across the state. Perhaps some snow by 5pm commute looks possible in OKC area.

Glad it skipped us just to the north...This cold weather is lame

Precip. this friday looks less likely now.

So I will focus more on the long-term forecast and update as a "as it looks right now" type of deal.


Right now it looks like we could have an interesting Christmas week, including day.

Glad it skipped us just to the north...This cold weather is lame
I certainly didn't enjoy it this morning. It was bone-chilling. But then yesterday's story about the "bone-crushing" record set in Antarctica took the edge off... just a bit.

Feeling chilly? Here's cold comfort: You could be in East Antarctica which new data says set a record for "soul-crushing" cold. Try 135.8 degrees Fahrenheit below zero; that's 93.2 degrees below zero Celsius, which sounds only slightly toastier. Better yet, don't try it. That's so cold scientists say it hurts to breathe.
A new look at NASA satellite data revealed that Earth set a new record for coldest temperature recorded. It happened in August 2010 when it hit -135.8 degrees. Then on July 31 of this year, it came close again: -135.3 degrees.

Cold dis-comfort: Antarctica set record of -135.8 (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cold-dis-comfort-antarctica-set-record-1358)

Right now it looks like we could have an interesting Christmas week, including day.Then I need to start chanting now................No Snow, No Snow, No Snow, No Snow.........................

12Z NAM has a quick shock of precip moving over Friday morning. Air profiles support full rain - of the non-freezing variety. GFS agrees...so that's that for this week.

Next chance of rain looks like around the 18th-19th.

Then I need to start chanting now................No Snow, No Snow, No Snow, No Snow.........................

Move to Corpus, move to Corpus, move to Corpus, move to Corpus... ;)

Then I need to start chanting now................No Snow, No Snow, No Snow, No Snow.........................

You mean you are not....


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYVvcf1QqXc

Move to Corpus, move to Corpus, move to Corpus, move to Corpus... ;)

It doesn’t do it very often but it can snow in CC.
That's mostly where my wife grew up.... About 2 blocks from the beach...
When we first got married she told me she loved snow... I told her that is just the Texan coming out in her. Now that she has first hand experiences of how it can adversely impact her life she generally hates snow now.

Not much snow cover left out there...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

You mean you are not....


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYVvcf1QqXcThat would be correct.

Move to Corpus, move to Corpus, move to Corpus, move to Corpus... ;)Nope! Born here, Born here, Born here...............

Mike Morgan is indicating that we might see very significant system about December 21?

Mike Morgan is indicating that we might see very significant system about December 21?

Looks like a strong cold front come through around then, but dry. So I think he might be mistaking his swirling cup of hot cocoa with marshmallows for a forecast model again.

GFS does hint of maybe some snow around the 23rd...but has backed off on amounts the last couple of runs. Would be nice to get some snow for Christmas, but I'm not holding my breath right now.

Mike Morgan is indicating that we might see very significant system about December 21?

If everyone starts heading south now, OKC shouldn't have too much traffic...

White Christmas dreamers...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/12/10/12/GFS_3_2013121012_F360_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

There's still plenty of time to dream of the return of the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009.

There's still plenty of time to dream of the return of the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009.

Well...I would like the snow, just not the 60 mph winds that ruin the enjoyment. :)

http://www.acclivityperformance.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/bizzard.jpg

Only in Oklahoma
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/1501649_619861121394490_1917507371_o.jpg

edited to add: the shot at #703 is close to perfection. thanks.

GFS back to showing some snow starting morning of the 21st into the 22nd. Right now just about 3" seems to be the max, but this is 10 days out. So I'm not going to get my hopes up yet for a White Christmas. However, if we look at projected snow cover the morning of the 25th, this is what it looks like...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/12/11/00/GFS_3_2013121100_F336_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Well...I would like the snow, just not the 60 mph winds that ruin the enjoyment. :)

http://www.acclivityperformance.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/bizzard.jpg

This photo is insane -- and beautiful. That was such a crazy Christmas.

This photo is insane -- and beautiful. That was such a crazy Christmas.

Where was this photo taken? I can't quite make it out, is that a New York license plate?

That looks like some type of lake-effect prone location if I had to take a random stab at it. I would be surprised if that is from OKC in 2011.

That looks like some type of lake-effect prone location if I had to take a random stab at it. I would be surprised if that is from OKC in 2011.

Not sure about this, but it appears the EXIF data from the photo indicates it was taken in 2006. No geotag data, though.

Where was this photo taken? I can't quite make it out, is that a New York license plate?

Yeah I think it was New York. It definitely wasn't here and didn't mean to have people think that. Searched for a heavy snow picture where the snow wasn't thrown around. :)

Hello arctic circle, so nice of you to join us...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_temp_240.gif

My photo from the 2011 Blizzard in Tulsa. So yeah we can get that here.. :)
http://i1152.photobucket.com/albums/p498/bg918/photo-54_zpsca85d75d.jpg (http://s1152.photobucket.com/user/bg918/media/photo-54_zpsca85d75d.jpg.html)

Wow! Was that your car?

GFS back to showing some snow starting morning of the 21st into the 22nd. Right now just about 3" seems to be the max, but this is 10 days out. So I'm not going to get my hopes up yet for a White Christmas. However, if we look at projected snow cover the morning of the 25th, this is what it looks like...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/12/11/00/GFS_3_2013121100_F336_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Venture are you backtracking now on this put down of Mike Morgan now for his prediction for the 21st?


Looks like a strong cold front come through around then, but dry. So I think he might be mistaking his swirling cup of hot cocoa with marshmallows for a forecast model again.

Venture are you backtracking now on this put down of Mike Morgan now for his prediction for the 21st?

Not at all. A couple inches is not a major winter storm by any stretch.

18Z and 00Z GFS runs have Oklahoma completely dry except for some very light precip in far eastern OK. Another surge of cold air is all it looks like right now. Way too early to see if the moisture is going to get into place yet or not.

So again, no. I'm also not one who is going to start trumpeting a major storm 10 days out knowing how unstable the models are. Especially when it hasn't hit my threshold of 4 consecutive runs of the same solution before I start paying much attention to it.

Not at all. A couple inches is not a major winter storm by any stretch.

18Z and 00Z GFS runs have Oklahoma completely dry except for some very light precip in far eastern OK. Another surge of cold air is all it looks like right now. Way too early to see if the moisture is going to get into place yet or not.

So again, no. I'm also not one who is going to start trumpeting a major storm 10 days out knowing how unstable the models are. Especially when it hasn't hit my threshold of 4 consecutive runs of the same solution before I start paying much attention to it.

Once again, your dislike for MM shows through and clouds your comments. I saw no indication he was predicting a major storm, just a significant system. You're basically saying that even if he's correct he shouldn't have said it. LOL

Once again, your dislike for MM shows through and clouds your comments. I saw no indication he was predicting a major storm, just a significant system. You're basically saying that even if he's correct he shouldn't have said it. LOL


Mike Morgan is indicating that we might see very significant system about December 21?

So "very significant", based on OU's comment, doesn't equal "major storm" then? Let's be honest, he's been a hype machine for years. If there was model consistency to a significant storm during that time period, I would have zero issue echoing the comments here. How many times have I pointed out in the past when towards the end of the GFS forecast window points out a significant cataclysmic storm - only to have it vanish the very next run?

The power of the media is pretty strong in this town when it comes to weather. Throwing out the hint of a major storm happening 10+ days out when the models had zero consistency with the solution isn't being very responsible. Now if he wanted to drop the hint, like Anon, myself and others do here, that's fine as long as the wording is delivered appropriately.

"Looking in the long range, there could be a chance of a system coming through around the 21st" is much more sensible than "There might be a very significant storm around the 21st."

It's all about delivery. I get some people like the stronger language and the flashier ties and all the drama that goes with it. That's fine. That is their choice. People like Morgan and that's their choice. That is why we saw a good segment of people come out in strong support of him when he lost his cool in May. I'm not fan of Morgan, have never said I was or pretended to be. I also don't have a problem giving props when their due, but that doesn't mean I'll hold back any criticism when I feel its due. Just like I don't expect any special treatment or accommodation if I completely blow a forecast. I also try very hard to not put myself in the position to make a strongly worded call that has a high risk of busting. I try to call it like it is and give the full scenario. I think last week made that pretty clear. When the models were running extremely consistent, you saw the call made raising the awareness level a good deal that "hey - I should pay attention now to this upcoming winter storm." Snow amounts may not have been as expected in specific areas, but those possibilities were always outlined and disclosed.

I'll leave it at that, since there really isn't much more to say on this. Side note, 00Z GFS removes most snow chances from the majority of the state through the 27th. Things will change, but that's what it has now.

Once again, your dislike for MM shows through and clouds your comments. I saw no indication he was predicting a major storm, just a significant system. You're basically saying that even if he's correct he shouldn't have said it. LOL

No, Venture's frank and accurate assessment of MM "shows through."

That the guy has any credibility, or even a job in this market, is astonishing. There was a time when yelling "fire" in a crowded theater was against the law.

Team Venture

Well, I don't know about any of you, but if it's going to be THAT FLIPPING COLD..THERE BETTER BE TONS OF SNOW TO GO WITH IT!! Otherwise..it's just sad!

So "very significant", based on OU's comment, doesn't equal "major storm" then? Let's be honest, he's been a hype machine for years. If there was model consistency to a significant storm during that time period, I would have zero issue echoing the comments here. How many times have I pointed out in the past when towards the end of the GFS forecast window points out a significant cataclysmic storm - only to have it vanish the very next run?

The power of the media is pretty strong in this town when it comes to weather. Throwing out the hint of a major storm happening 10+ days out when the models had zero consistency with the solution isn't being very responsible. Now if he wanted to drop the hint, like Anon, myself and others do here, that's fine as long as the wording is delivered appropriately.

"Looking in the long range, there could be a chance of a system coming through around the 21st" is much more sensible than "There might be a very significant storm around the 21st."

It's all about delivery. I get some people like the stronger language and the flashier ties and all the drama that goes with it. That's fine. That is their choice. People like Morgan and that's their choice. That is why we saw a good segment of people come out in strong support of him when he lost his cool in May. I'm not fan of Morgan, have never said I was or pretended to be. I also don't have a problem giving props when their due, but that doesn't mean I'll hold back any criticism when I feel its due. Just like I don't expect any special treatment or accommodation if I completely blow a forecast. I also try very hard to not put myself in the position to make a strongly worded call that has a high risk of busting. I try to call it like it is and give the full scenario. I think last week made that pretty clear. When the models were running extremely consistent, you saw the call made raising the awareness level a good deal that "hey - I should pay attention now to this upcoming winter storm." Snow amounts may not have been as expected in specific areas, but those possibilities were always outlined and disclosed.

I'll leave it at that, since there really isn't much more to say on this. Side note, 00Z GFS removes most snow chances from the majority of the state through the 27th. Things will change, but that's what it has now.

To be fair to MM he said “we might see”... If its getting down to signal digits or lower that is very significant in Oklahoma IMHO.

We have got to be smart enough to understand that MM first priority is to his bosses who want the good TV ratings first and for most. We have got to be smart enough to know that his ratings get a boost by injecting a certain amount of drama to the weather. The better ratings means more money for his station / company and for him. We have to be smart enough to understand there is an entertainment component to our TV weather and there always will be and there is not a damn thing any of us can do about it... like it or not

To be fair to MM he said “we might see”... If its getting down to signal digits or lower that is very significant in Oklahoma IMHO.

We have got to be smart enough to understand that MM first priority is to his bosses who want the good TV ratings first and for most. We have got to be smart enough to know that his ratings get a boost by injecting a certain amount of drama to the weather. The better ratings means more money for his station / company and for him. We have to be smart enough to understand there is an entertainment component to our TV weather and there always will be and there is not a damn thing any of us can do about it... like it or not

No offense, but baloney.

We can stop watching the hack. I *will not* watch MM. And, by extension, I don't watch much of KFOR news. I tell my 77-year-old mom not to watch him. And I wish with all my heart I had known that I needed to tell my 80-year-old, partially paralyzed uncle and aunt not to watch him, because they were among the people who got in their cars and headed out of town because guess who said to.

We can go to other, more credible weather sources - like Venture right here or at his website. We can use other stations that don't engage in his rabid, frothing hysteria. Look at Rick Mitchell - a very successful OKC meteorologist who now has a pretty decent gig in Dallas - was anything but the hype and hysteria machine. I think OKC lost a really good broadcast meteorologist when he left this market.

We can encourage others on forums just like this about the myriad alternatives to hysteria. Like so many things, education is an invaluable tool in diminishing the impact of hype; dispensing just a bit of information about weather combined with just a bit of a desire and willingness to learn can do volumes to make hysteriamongers irrelevant. The NWS puts out a ton of info; some intelligible, some less so, but the information is out there. I'm surely no Venture, but I try in my own small way to help other folks understand the weather a bit better.

It wasn't that long ago no one would have dared suggest the print media would become a dinosaur. I'm willing to bet we can put hysteria-based weather forecasting on the endangered list, too, and we do that by voting with our remotes, one at a time, and simply changing the channel.

Maybe I'm just one idealistic nutjob, but when someone tells me the only possible alternative is that, well, there isn't one, that we must sit back and take it, give up...sorry, but I simply refuse to accept that.

I am convinced that vital, useful weather information can be conveyed with grace, professionalism, and even a twinge of idealism - and the fact we have folks like Venture, Anon and others on this thread (not intending to slight other contributors) is at least a measure of proof on my side of the ledger. So I'm running with that.

No offense, but baloney.

We can stop watching the hack. I *will not* watch MM. And, by extension, I don't watch much of KFOR news. I tell my 77-year-old mom not to watch him. And I wish with all my heart I had known that I needed to tell my 80-year-old, partially paralyzed uncle and aunt not to watch him, because they were among the people who got in their cars and headed out of town because guess who said to.

We can go to other, more credible weather sources - like Venture right here or at his website. We can use other stations that don't engage in his rabid, frothing hysteria. Look at Rick Mitchell - a very successful OKC meteorologist who now has a pretty decent gig in Dallas - was anything but the hype and hysteria machine. I think OKC lost a really good broadcast meteorologist when he left this market.

We can encourage others on forums just like this about the myriad alternatives to hysteria. Like so many things, education is an invaluable tool in diminishing the impact of hype; dispensing just a bit of information about weather combined with just a bit of a desire and willingness to learn can do volumes to make hysteriamongers irrelevant. The NWS puts out a ton of info; some intelligible, some less so, but the information is out there. I'm surely no Venture, but I try in my own small way to help other folks understand the weather a bit better.

It wasn't that long ago no one would have dared suggest the print media would become a dinosaur. I'm willing to bet we can put hysteria-based weather forecasting on the endangered list, too, and we do that by voting with our remotes, one at a time, and simply changing the channel.

Maybe I'm just one idealistic nutjob, but when someone tells me the only possible alternative is that, well, there isn't one, that we must sit back and take it, give up...sorry, but I simply refuse to accept that.

I am convinced that vital, useful weather information can be conveyed with grace, professionalism, and even a twinge of idealism - and the fact we have folks like Venture, Anon and others on this thread (not intending to slight other contributors) is at least a measure of proof on my side of the ledger. So I'm running with that.

You and others can try all that... but I just don't think its going to have very much of an impact.
This is IMHO a lot like the train wreak that Jim Traber is (but not near as oboxious). Lot's of people can't stand Traber but some how he still gets good ratings and big raises. As long as MM or Traber is getting good ratings nothing much is going to change.


PS:Personally, I find it very easy and simple to sort though any of TV “hysteria” and decipher any needed local weather information.