Oh come on now... Had I been a sooner fan and had tickets and I was at the game I'd have been pissed. It was no threat whatsoever...

I have been at several OU games with those kinds of delays. I'm sure there were some people who were unhappy but I never heard anyone say that. I will trust those who have a little more knowledge than me or you about weather threats, thank you anyway.

Hey no problem LJ. You're always a sweet guy...

Slight Risk today...SW OK. Main risk hail.

Wednesday the more widespread day...Slight risk for all of the state except the PH and western two rows of counties.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A COMPLEX
FORECAST SCENARIO IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED EARLY-DAY CONVECTION BEING A COMPLICATING FACTOR. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST COMMON
CONCERN...WHILE A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WILL OTHERWISE EXIST
ACROSS A RELATIVELY BROAD REGIONAL EXTENT. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...AND A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS
FOR THE SEASON.


IT IS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...INCLUDING A CORRIDOR
FROM OK/NORTH TX INTO KS/MO AND EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. THESE STORMS
MAY PERSIST GENERALLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE QUITE MOIST AND FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
GENERALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...CLOUD COVER/ONGOING
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HINDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE-BASED
VIGOROUS CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK INCLUDING WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE/INSTABILITY DETAILS ARE
UNCERTAIN...A TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED GIVEN
DIURNALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.


WHILE MUCH DEPENDS ON EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER AND
SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE SURFACE-BASED
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND/OR DRY LINE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN TANDEM WITH MORE CONSEQUENTIAL
FORCING FOR ASCENT. WHILE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO
OFFER THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY...THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS ESPECIALLY
UNCERTAIN NEAR/EAST OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT...BUT A LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION.


..GUYER.. 10/29/2013

Slight risk was pulled down, but still a low risk for an isolated severe storm today. The SPC outlook is pretty interesting on how specific the threat is today based on land formations.

MEANWHILE...FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND S OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF NW TX AND SW THROUGH NE
OK. WHILE LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK...IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD ARISE ALONG
IT AND/OR ALONG TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS NEAR THE WICHITA MTNS
AND RED RVR. WERE SUCH DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AVAILABILITY OF FAIRLY
RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 IN/ AND 30-40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR SUGGEST
A LOW CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND/OR A
TORNADO.

I can see terrain induced circulations involving the Wichita Mountains, but not the Red River.

Risk area for tomorrow is going to be roughly the central half of the state...or roughly 150 miles either side of I-35 from KS to TX.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013


VALID 301200Z - 311200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS TO THE MID MO VALLEY...


...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN...AS
AN ACCOMPANYING BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE GREAT
PLAINS. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEB AND THE DAKOTAS...WHILE LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE PRIMARY VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY. AN ATTENDANT
ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RICH GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS...WITH SOME STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE WHERE POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING OCCUR.


...SRN/CNTRL LOWER PLAINS TO MID MO VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM OK NWD
INTO NEB. A SEASONABLY MOIST /PW GENERALLY ABOVE 1 INCH/ AND
RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO W TX.


IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY GIVEN MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LLJ. THIS...ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...IS EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN
OCCUR...AND WILL PROVE DIFFICULT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...IF POCKETS OF HEATING CAN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S F...MOIST CHARACTER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500
J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP...BUT INITIALLY BROAD AND WEAKLY FOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA YIELDS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.


THE PRIMARY SFC LOW PRECEDING A LEAD SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER ERN NEB BY
31/00Z...BUT THE DEGREE OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR
INVOF THE LOW IS QUESTIONABLE. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...CONVECTIVE
RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
FROM WRN OK INTO ERN KS...AND THE PRIMARY VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD. A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO EARLY THU MORNING...BUT THE PRIMARY
RISK SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL.


..ROGERS.. 10/29/2013

Panoramic pic of yesterday's rather dreary overcast skies:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/1403377_381251925338564_1899865860_o.jpg

Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=381251925338564&set=a.381251982005225.1073741825.209274295869662&type=1

The Big Friendly looking more like the Big Foggy.

Hi venture 79. My daughter has softball Games in del city tonight around the 7-8 pm time tonight, is the rain not coming in until late tonight or tomorrow? Just checking to see

Hi venture 79. My daughter has softball Games in del city tonight around the 7-8 pm time tonight, is the rain not coming in until late tonight or tomorrow? Just checking to see

Last check of the radar, there's nothing out there. Basically it's a 30% chance of precip up until midnight where it jumps to around 50-70% depending on where you are. Pack a poncho just in case ;-)

Last check of the radar, there's nothing out there. Basically it's a 30% chance of precip up until midnight where it jumps to around 50-70% depending on where you are. Pack a poncho just in case ;-)
Thanks, this is the last day for fall season and was hoping it wasnt a wash out this evening.

Thanks, this is the last day for fall season and was hoping it wasnt a wash out this evening.

Yessir. Best of luck to her team!

I can see terrain induced circulations involving the Wichita Mountains, but not the Red River.

Could you please elaborate further on why you would say this.
I have wondered about this my self.

Could you please elaborate further on why you would say this.
I have wondered about this my self.

West winds blowing against the Wichitas is bound to lift some and add a little to the instability. Otherwise, ask the meteorologist, who wrote the commentary.

West winds blowing against the Wichitas is bound to lift some and add a little to the instability. Otherwise, ask the meteorologist, who wrote the commentary.Thanks.
This is the first time I have ever heard of terrain induced circulations in Oklahoma or anywhere else.....
I would love to hear more about the specifics of such features in Oklahoma.
I have wondered about this for decades and that if it might not be why some areas seem to be hit by tornadoes with more frequency. Maybe I can find something on line someday?
Again Thanks

Thanks.
This is the first time I have ever heard of terrain induced circulations in Oklahoma or anywhere else.....
I would love to hear more about the specifics of such features in Oklahoma.
I have wondered about this for decades and that if it might not be why some areas seem to be hit by tornadoes with more frequency. Maybe I can find something on line someday?
Again Thanks

In Colorado there is the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone (or known locally as the Denver Cyclone) that is caused by the surrounding terrain. The tornado that hit DIA this past June was caused by one of these events.

From Wikipedia:
DCVZ conditions form when a moist, southeasterly air mass meets the Palmer Divide, a ridge that extends east of the Colorado Front Range. If the moist air lifts over the ridge and meets northwesterly winds originating in the Rocky Mountain foothills, winds may converge to create enhanced vorticity. A study conducted between 1981 and 1989 demonstrated that the DCVZ formed on one-third of all days during the convective season (May through August). DCVZ conditions are often associated with the Denver Cyclone effect, which is characterized by the formation of a large gyre near the city center. Several studies have documented the role of the DCVZ in tornado outbreaks across the Denver area. Using climatic data from the 1980s, one researcher has suggested that the presence of a strong June DCVZ has been associated with a 70% chance of zone-area tornado formation.

Today was just icky with the humidity.

Slight risk for much of the state today except for the far western section and far eastern sections.

Over the next 24-36 hours there are going to be roughly 3 separate waves. First wave looks like it'll start around 6AM and move out by 1PM. Should remain below severe levels and just have a risk for some hail and gusty winds.

Second round will be late Wednesday increasing overnight. Hail and wind threat there.

Finally the third round will be before daybreak on Thursday with the main storm system.

Constant training thunderstorms/moderate rain just south of the OKC metro.

The developmental zone looks to be lifting north ever so slightly, this will put Norman more solidly into the rain and possible the S metro eventually.


Metro may miss out on heavy rain from the looks of it. Eastern sides of state will get slammed. SE OK could see close to 5 inches in isolated areas.

If we get some clearing over C parts of the state this afternoon, it could spark a round of heavier storms off dryline/triple point in W OK. But for now these clouds are making that look less and less likely.

Main band picking up a bit more on the north side. Now stretches from Arcadia down to Purcell. Decent moderate rain here in Norman for about an hour or so now.

SPC has added a hatched for large hail over NW OK for this afternoon and evening. Everything else relatively unchanged.

I looks like Guthrie got totally bypassed by this round. Sprinkles didn't dodge Stillwater, though.

Watch Up

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
GREER HARMON JACKSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
MAJOR NOBLE OSAGE
PAWNEE ROGER MILLS TILLMAN
WA****A WOODS WOODWARD

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0550_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA


* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 549...


DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG SHALLOW SW-NE
STNRY/COLD FRONT OVER NW OK/S CNTRL-E CNTRL KS. THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL UPLIFT/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MID-EVE. WHILE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY INCREASE OVER TIME BY
CONTINUED NEWD ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCES NOW IN NM/CO IN FAST /120 KT
AT 250 MB/ SW FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE DEEP/STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD ABOVE THE LOWEST LAYERS
APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL...THE
ENVIRONMENT ALSO COULD POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER S
CNTRL KS AND NW/N CNTRL OK. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. IF IT APPEARS THAT STORMS ALSO WILL ARISE AWAY FROM
LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT...PARTS OF KS AND OK MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE
TO A TORNADO WW LATER THIS AFTN OR EVE.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.

Live Chat Link has changed to: Weather Spotlight - Live Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

Two areas of concern going into the evening hours.

1) Current developing line of severe storms in KS down into NW OK. Additional cells trying to go up in Custer/Dewey Counties.

2) HRRR hinting at severe storms in SW OK and Northern TX moving in to C OK late today.

Clouds thinning out ahead of dryline/front.

Temps are mid to upper 70s along and ahead. Could get some decent sized cells if things go up more isolated in nature towards W/SW OK.

Couple new cells trying to gup around Alva and Taloga. Also a few more near Billings, Blackwell, and Edmond.

Someone needs to not sneeze on the wx station at Enid...

#OUN ENID/WOODRING MUNI,OK (WDG) ASOS reports gust of 222.0 knots from S @ 2250Z IEM | ASOS | Current Conditions (http://t.co/nfG5k6tXR4)

General take away - late show tonight. We are in a holding pattern until the main storm system kicks out here in the next few hours.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1985.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...SRN/ERN KS


CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...


VALID 302314Z - 310115Z


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550
CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...WHILE AN ISOLATED SVR STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE...THE
OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 03Z/.


DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM MCI SWWD TO GAG. DESPITE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...LIMITING HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 250-500
J/KG ACROSS WRN OK WITH NO MLCAPE INDICATED ACROSS SRN AND ERN KS.
THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...FOSTERING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. AS A RESULT...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS SERN KS WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE INTO S-CNTRL
KS AND N-CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SCANT INSTABILITY...ANY SVR
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
MARGINAL. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME CELL TRAINING WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN.


AFTER 03Z...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EWD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN OK AND SRN KS.


..MOSIER.. 10/30/2013

Yup. Never got enough sunshine to fire anything. The one place that got a little sun around Enid threw up a couple weak cells, but nothing came of it.

Will wait for the fast moving rain tonight! :D

Feel HRRR now has a good hold on things. Cells starting to fire to the SW.

Loop (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013103022&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5)

Evening round getting established now. Thin band of strong storms north from Hennessey up to east of Newkirk moving SE slowly. Moderate rain over SW OK moving tot he NE up I-44. Then a line of storms developing in the TX PH near the OK border moving east.

Get out the canoes.

Severe storms with winds up to 70 mph moving towards the Metro area in the next couple of hours.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
* AT 1136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
EAST OF WARREN TO FARGO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1987.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...OK INTO NWRN TX


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY


VALID 310440Z - 310645Z


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT


SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS
MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.


DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY IN THE REGION OF GREATEST INSTABILITY PER OA
FIELDS...AND ALSO WHERE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESIDUAL WARM AXIS
W OF THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES...AND COOLING ALOFT...THESE STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED E OF I-35 WHERE COOLER AIR RESIDES.


..JEWELL/HART.. 10/31/2013




ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

OKC gets away from this storm with about 4 tenths of an inch to around half inch further south.



Hopefully next week brings better moisture for us in C OK.

I heard we can expect a pretty significant storm system in the first part of next week.
CH 9 DP said we could see flooding rains and some sever WX

I heard we can expect a pretty significant storm system in the first part of next week.
CH 9 DP said we could see flooding rains and some sever WX

Well, hopefully if OKC misses out again, it'll be northwest of OKC...ya know, Canton watershed ;-)

Nothing major in the long range.

Yeah some heavy rain early next week, but that's just it. Severe weather threat appears to be low for the next two weeks. Some cold air dumps down in a week and a half, but no snow with it yet. Pretty "meh" for November so far the way it looks.

Sounds good to me!

Bread & Milk Watch Issued for Saturday November 16th. :)

Honestly, I don't expect this to stick around. Though it has been showing a strong storm system in that time period but placement has been all over the place...by hundreds and hundreds of miles.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/11/01/12/GFS_3_2013110112_F360_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Venture, now why on earth would you post this... now the TV mets are gonna start hyping up a mid-month storm and start posting snow totals :)

Venture, now why on earth would you post this... now the TV mets are gonna start hyping up a mid-month storm and start posting snow totals :)

I would hope the sane one of the bunch would stay away from it.

Venture, now why on earth would you post this... now the TV mets are gonna start hyping up a mid-month storm and start posting snow totals :)

One of them already mentioned that a strong storm was coming in for this time frame

Please tell me its going to get cold soon!

Oh crap it's November. New thread in a second. LOL