Thank you. I appreciate the advice. However, I'm afraid that if we wait, my work schedule won't provide an easy opportunity to make the drive. I remember going up to Grove one time--in mid-to-late October--and the trees in that area were at their peak of color (other than green). Plus no unexpected storm had knocked most of them off the branches.

HRRR has isolated/scattered storms over Central OK forming by 1AM out to the west, moving through the Metro around 3AM...slowing down by end of rush hour.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013102101/t5/cref_t5sfc_f07.png

This is a really weird line of storms..... Not growing or contracting or changing shape. Just a sausage link drifting to the ENE....

Everything is moving roughly due east right now.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/oct13/21.png

Areas from North Norman up through far southern Moore might see some small hail mixed in with the rain as the storms roll through.

Back edge of the line is now at US 281 from Binger to Gracemont. Rain will continue another hour or two for those that are ahead of this line. Some areas will see a good 1 to 3 inches of rain from this.

Few more storms moving through the area. Norman continues to see heavy rain and hail up to a half inch with each cell.

Mesonet reporting only 0.6" of rain, but the heaviest rain has been on the East side of Norman which is probably pushing 2 inches now.

Any word on how the perfectly normal seasonal temperature changes may or may not be highlighting the foliage color change in the southeastern quadrant of the state? Like, from Talihina to Mena (AK)?

What about whether or not it will be a sunny day regardless of the foliagiousty?

(sorry, Venture. You really ARE the Weather Wizard (and rational, scientific, human being in here, so I just had to ask.
on account of I don't know the answer to my question.)

This should be a great foliage year. I'm thinking it's going to peak a bit earlier than usual due to the cooler temps and abundant rainfall. Wish I had a cabin lined up during the next couple of weeks.

Heading down to the Wichitas for a couple nights camping this weekend. Looks like perfect weather for hiking and climbing during the day and campfires at night.

Heading down to the Wichitas for a couple nights camping this weekend. Looks like perfect weather for hiking and climbing during the day and campfires at night.

A lot of folks don't know this, but there are areas of the wildlife refuge that have native sugar maples. They're called Caddo Maples, and are found in a few canyons in the Wichitas and in Red Rock Canyon. Very uncommon foliage for such semi-arid terrain. The real show is in Southeastern Oklahoma, but it's cool there is some good foliage in the Wichitas, too, you just need to know where to go to find it.

A lot of folks don't know this, but there are areas of the wildlife refuge that have native sugar maples. They're called Caddo Maples, and are found in a few canyons in the Wichitas and in Red Rock Canyon. Very uncommon foliage for such semi-arid terrain. The real show is in Southeastern Oklahoma, but it's cool there is some good foliage in the Wichitas, too, you just need to know where to go to find it.

Interesting. I think I may have seen them in The Narrows a couple of years ago. It was during a fall hike that we noticed the intensely-colored foliage of the surrounding trees. I didn't realize they were so unique.


But yea, The Talimena Drive is hard to beat in Oklahoma.

Interesting. I think I may have seen them in The Narrows a couple of years ago. It was during a fall hike that we noticed the intensely-colored foliage of the surrounding trees. I didn't realize they were so unique.


But yea, The Talimena Drive is hard to beat in Oklahoma.

I'm not sure where they are. I've hiked the narrows many times and there aren't many deciduous trees there. The refuge has many "permit only" areas on the northern side and I suspect most of the stands of them are there.

When will the foliage peak this year? I've never taken the Talimena Drive, and as a self-proclaimed shutterbug, it sounds like a great opportunity.

I went down to Talimena Drive last year during the first week in November (which is usually regarded as the peak time). It was absolutely stunning, even though some people there said it was more colorful in years past, probably due to the drought. With all the rain we've had I can only imagine how it would look this year.

If you don't want to drive as far, I would also suggest the area around Chickasaw National Recreation Area.

Venture, I just saw a Facebook post that said we are looking at 3.5 inches of snow. . . is that true?

https://scontent-a-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/1379768_10151992492433489_2110335017_n.jpg

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151992492433489&set=a.189063753488.124009.118372868488&type=1&theater

Venture, I just saw a Facebook post that said we are looking at 3.5 inches of snow. . . is that true?

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151992492433489&set=a.189063753488.124009.118372868488&type=1&theater

It is hard to buy any snow forecasts this far out. The last few runs really didn't have anything in it, so we need to see if we can some consistency before ordering the snow blowers...or running out for bread and milk. ;)

As a side note, I'm slowly doing a complete site redesign. I decided it is finally time to update and be completely HTML5 compliant. Here is a sneak peak: Weather Spotlight - Live Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/newhome/)

If there are any requests for items on the page let me know. Right now the layout is really still in flux. A lot of the content on the page right now is just place holder until I take a nap and change my mind. :)

Saw this on Twitter from Damon Lane. Nice to have a figure head lending some perspective.

How accurate are weather models? | Weather - Home (http://m.koco.com/weather/how-accurate-are-weather-models/-/17423456/22604678/-/lqmaprz/-/index.html)

From this post...


According to the EURO model, Oklahoma is suppose to see snow late next week. And somehow this model, which as of this writing is still a week away, is getting tossed around the internet, making people get all excited that there will be snow in Oklahoma around Halloween.

Read more: How accurate are weather models? | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com (http://www.koco.com/weather/how-accurate-are-weather-models/-/9845544/22604678/-/45vscdz/-/index.html#ixzz2iboCtgPG)

"Tossed around the internet" = on OKCTalk. ;)

Damn, this site really reaches out fast ;)

GFS tonight keeps snow well to the north. Looks like a good check of NE from the SW part of the state to the NE near Souix Falls, SD and over S MN and N IA to the ENE towards Green Bay...could see their first accumulating snow of the season. GFS calling for 3-8" over NE...but still way too early to get excited yet.

Down here...risk of severe weather Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Through the first week of November it looks like a classic battle between Winter and Fall as cold air continues to build in Western Canada over Northern BC.

For some reason, I just get this feeling we are going to have a "real" winter this year.

Venture, didn't that part of the country get slammed with a blizzard that wiped out tens of thousands heads of cattle back in early October? Maybe it was west of that area...I could be wrong.

Also, I think Lane was directing that "tossed around the internet" barb at KFOR and their posting on social media about one model run's suggestion of snow in this area. That's the way I took it.

Venture, didn't that part of the country get slammed with a blizzard that wiped out tens of thousands heads of cattle back in early October? Maybe it was west of that area...I could be wrong.

Also, I think Lane was directing that "tossed around the internet" barb at KFOR and their posting on social media about one model run's suggestion of snow in this area. That's the way I took it.

Yeah...but I think it was a bit further NW into SD and NW NE. Yeah I'm sure Damon was meaning KFOR's tweet and stuff, but but we can be important too!. :)

Well . . . I've postponed the trip to Talihina/Mena to give the trees a chance for a little more color.
So . . . What are the odds for and against crappy weather, maybe even snow, for NEXT (not THIS coming) Saturday and Sunday?
(THAT, to me, is The Big Issue.)

We could still go THIS weekend, but . . . dang . . . I just don't know what to do . . .

This morning's GFS run...second run with this solution, so don't take it to the bank.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/10/24/12/GFS_3_2013102412_F156_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

06Z run overnight...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/10/24/06/GFS_3_2013102406_F174_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Some slight tweaks made to the new website: Weather Spotlight - Live Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/newhome/)

I'll replace the Tropical Outlook in the bottom right with a snowfall forecast map on December 1st or earlier if needed. Let me know if there is anything you guys feel should be on the main page. Want to give it that whole "command deck" or brief overview of the important things...but not as cluttered and extensive as you find a lot of pages.

Hoping it looks already on the mobile device browsers as well, but I'm sure the spacing on some of the elements are going to be a little wonky.

Forecast wise...rain still seems on schedule for us this weekend. No snow showing up next week as of right now.

It's refreshing that this year late October is actually feeling like late October. Most recent years in my memory, October has felt very spring-like even late into the month.

Looks like tomorrows OU could be wet.
I hope we don't have any lighting delays.

We all know what happened last rain delay....

Looks like tomorrows OU could be wet.
I hope we don't have any lighting delays.

Are the lights in the stadium having issues (sarcasm duly noted)....

Are the lights in the stadium having issues (sarcasm duly noted)....

Whoops

lightning strikes, LOL

Moderate to heavy rain starting to pick up over SW OK. Moving NE at about 30 mph. The heaviest stuff should be into Norman here in a couple hours.

Just a heads up from NWS due to the game...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013


OKZ027>029-039-040-261730-
MCCLAIN OK-GRADY OK-GARVIN OK-CLEVELAND OK-STEPHENS OK-
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013


...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCCLAIN...GRADY...WESTERN
GARVIN...CLEVELAND AND NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM
CDT...


AT 1156 AM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM JUST
NORTH OF LAWTON...TO RUSH SPRINGS AND VELMA...WERE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORMAN AREA
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 130 PM.


HAZARDS INCLUDE...
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...


THOSE ATTENDING THE OUTDOOR EVENTS IN NORMAN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WIND...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

More scattered showers and storms popping up. Mainly west of I-35 still. Strongest is out by Fort Cobb. Everything moving generally east.

Storm approaching Madill, down south, is svr warned but isn't all that terrible

Right now, the mentality around Norman is if there's even the *threat* of lightning in the general *area* of Norman, they'll practically evacuate the campus.

I realize I'm old school, and I understand the risk of lightning, but geez, people. I think the hysteria is a bit much.

But please, no more lightning.

I remember the OU-Neb game of 1983, watched it during a lightning-filled, pouring monsoon where you could barely see the field. Never thought once of stopping it for so much as a single play. And we all survived. Somehow.

Venture, those storms going to head right for Norman, or are they too small/changing to tell at this point?

Heaviest stuff is going south as it seems right now.

Right now, the mentality around Norman is if there's even the *threat* of lightning in the general *area* of Norman, they'll practically evacuate the campus.

I realize I'm old school, and I understand the risk of lightning, but geez, people. I think the hysteria is a bit much.

But please, no more lightning.

I remember the OU-Neb game of 1983, watched it during a lightning-filled, pouring monsoon where you could barely see the field. Never thought once of stopping it for so much as a single play. And we all survived. Somehow.

Venture, those storms going to head right for Norman, or are they too small/changing to tell at this point?

I'll never forget that game for many reasons but one reason was one of the funniest things I have ever seen. After the game ended and everyone was filing out of the stadium, I was following my parents out of the donor area and saw an elderly woman and her husband sitting silently but proudly in the still-pouring rain. She had makeup smudged down her face like that old Carol Burnett 1920's movie star character, Norma Desmond, and was wearing a mink hat and a full length mink coat. The mink coat was absolutely soaked throughout and people were chuckling at her when they realized that she probably couldn't move because the mink coat must have weighed 150 pounds at that point being so full of water.

Still putting things together.

Monday through Wednesday we could see some pretty rough severe weather across the state. This will include all modes of severe weather. I'll be doubling efforts to get the website redesign up and going. The chat will be restarted tomorrow evening for the event.

More details later.

Right now, the mentality around Norman is if there's even the *threat* of lightning in the general *area* of Norman, they'll practically evacuate the campus.

I realize I'm old school, and I understand the risk of lightning, but geez, people. I think the hysteria is a bit much.

But please, no more lightning.

I remember the OU-Neb game of 1983, watched it during a lightning-filled, pouring monsoon where you could barely see the field. Never thought once of stopping it for so much as a single play. And we all survived. Somehow.

Venture, those storms going to head right for Norman, or are they too small/changing to tell at this point?

The rules about lightning are stricken inforced by the NCAA now days and they requires a 30 minute delay with each new lightning strike. They do this everywhere now days.....There was thunder today before the game that could be heard on campus.
I have been told that OU has a contract with a Norman weather firm to advice them of weather details.
It's a liability issue.

I was at that 83 Nebraska game too and the there was lightning as you say.....
But I had to drive home in wet clothes for 220 miles with the last 75 miles in snow and near blizzard conditions. That sucked

Quick blurb on Monday...

Area: Slight risk Central and West. I'm being very cautious here not calling Moderate, but...eesh.

Threats: Tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds.

Timing: Mid to Late Afternoon initiation through late evening.

Here are a couple images on Monday. First is the forecast NAM sounding. Wind profile...perfect. Instability isn't going to be extreme, but you don't need that this time of year with the storm systems having stronger dynamics.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/048/SKT_NAM__KOUN.png

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_con_stp_051.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_con_scp_048.gif

The rules about lightning are stricken inforced by the NCAA now days and they requires a 30 minute delay with each new lightning strike. They do this everywhere now days.....There was thunder today before the game that could be heard on campus.
I have been told that OU has a contract with a Norman weather firm to advice them of weather details.

That just reinforces the stupid.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif

POTENTIALLY AIDED BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING SUBTROPICAL-ASSOCIATED
DISTURBANCE AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES/AMPLE MIXING NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS WOULD BE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WEST TX INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHWEST KS. PROVIDED SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND
45+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
INCREASINGLY LONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BY EVENING.

Day 3...Slight Risk Western OK

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013


VALID 291200Z - 301200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...


CORRECTED FOR WORDING


...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...ACCENTUATED BY AN INCREASINGLY EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST STATES. THE INFLUENCES OF THIS
TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /FOR THE SEASON/ ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY...INCLUDING A RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS.


...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
INFLUENCED BY LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND A SOUTHEAST STATES
ANTICYCLONE...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOURCE REGION AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD-EXPANSION ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF A SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY.


THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY AND THE GENERAL POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPSTREAM ROCKIES
UPPER TROUGH. OF NOTE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS FEATURES A
FASTER/MORE EASTWARD SOLUTION OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH AS
COMPARED TO THE MORE SIMILAR 00Z ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THESE
DIFFERENCES INFLUENCE THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF THE
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE A LATER/MORE
NOCTURNAL RISK PER THE 00Z NAM/ECWMF VERSUS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR PEAK-HEATING WITH THE
EARLIER-TIMED 00Z GFS.


REGARDLESS...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST
OF THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /40-55 KT/ OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS CONSIDERABLE...AND MASS CONVERGENCE MAY
REMAIN MODEST INTO EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST
A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED-TYPE SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST. THIS WOULD
MAINLY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...OR MORE CERTAINLY BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
INFLUENCES THE REGION.

Day 4 Outlook...these normally represent a 30% probability. This includes the OKC metro.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day4prob.gif

Both of the 12Z NAM and GFS runs are done enough to cover the severe weather threat this week. NAM is a bit faster and stronger with the system, GFS is a bit slower and not has significant. With that said, both forecast severe weather in Oklahoma Monday through Wednesday.

Monday
SPC slight risk out west. GFS keeps the threat mainly in the panhandles, but does develop storms through the evening over Western into Central OK...generally north of I-44. NAM has precip starting in the Northern TX PH and NW OK by early evening and then increasing through the evening over Western and Central OK mainly north of Highway 9. NAM has the focus of instability further east over much of W OK. Supercell composite index (SCI) is fairly high west of I-35 with a bulls eye near Clinton to Cordell. It increases even more in NW OK just after dark, likely as the shear increases over night. Sig Tor index is fairly low but it does increase overnight with the shear.

Tuesday
SPC slight risk out west again. GFS holds off most precip for the entire day, keeping it until after midnight into Wednesday. Instability is much higher though over Western OK with cape hitting 1500-2000 j/kg - pretty high for this time of year. Tornado potential for Tuesday per GFS will be mostly NW OK. NAM also keeps precip very limited during Tuesday. With that, NAM does develop high instability over much of Western and Central OK just north/west of I-44. SCI is moderate to high again over Western and central OK north of Highway 9. Sig Tor is moderate for Tuesday from the OKC area to the north. This increases significantly after dark over W OK and S KS, as expected.

Wednesday
SPC risk area Central and East. GFS has ongoing precip from over Western OK sliding East through the day, pushing out of the state by early Thursday. Some areas could see over 1-2" of rain. GFS has instability build through the day, peaking over Central OK by mid Afternoon. Tornado threat may be somewhat mitigated if the GFS solution works out as we might just have mostly heavy rain and hail. NAM kicks precip off around morning rush in Western and Central OK. It gets the main band east of the OKC area by mid afternoon, but does show some possible wrap around precip by later afternoon/early evening. During the period NAM keeps up the level of instability a good deal ahead of the cold front. SCI is moderate to high ahead of this boundary. Sig Tor is fairly high Wednesday morning through early afternoon over Central OK and ahead of the boundary. Again, this is driven by the fact that shear naturally picks up overnight around here...so it can be screwy with the models sometime. With that said, that doesn't mean that it is completely wrong and it is something that needs to be monitored.

CH 9 indicates.

A few isolated tornadoes in NW OK on Monday
Tuesday.... sever weather in western OK
Near and east of I -35 will see very heavy rain on Wednesday

That just reinforces the stupid.

How so? Lightning is nothing to take lightly or play around with. The fact that you see it faster than you can hear it, means you would be dead or seriously injured before you realize it hit you or was about to hit you.

At my job, we have similar restrictions.

How so? Lightning is nothing to take lightly or play around with. The fact that you see it faster than you can hear it, means you would be dead or seriously injured before you realize it hit you or was about to hit you.

At my job, we have similar restrictions.

And in my 40 years of going to OU football games, I've not heard of *one* person being killed by lightning hitting the stadium. But what about people getting in wrecks rushing home to avoid the lightning?

Catch, I understand your point, but the risk of lightning is the same now as it was ten, twenty, or fifty years ago. Lightning bolts in 2013 are the same as lightning bolts in 1985, and 1940. We've developed this sense of safety to the point of mandatory ship-in-a-bottle guarantees of no-risk scenarios, and its my worthless opinion we can't function individually as human beings nor collectively as a society if we continue to embolden that attitude. Its another example of the way lawyers have leveraged liability as a sort of passive social restraint on how much risk I am allowed to assume *for myself*. This society would never have gone to the moon as this paranoid hysteria about risk been present in the 1960's. These days, we're afraid to breathe without a disclaimer and a charcoal air filter.

I used the '83 Neb game analogy for a reason. During that game, there was a PA announcement that said only "Hail was expected." And I'll you right now I'd be stunned to find out even one person left that stadium. The rain was so hard at one point I literally couldn't see the field. I'll bet there were more than 3 lightning strikes in a six mile radius during that game. And what makes six miles magical? Why not seven? Why not 10? If one radius is safe, a larger radius must be safer, and in the name of safety I can always play the "you don't mess with lightning" card to justify it. Where does it stop?

I was at the OU-Tech game in '11 that was held up for two hours for the same reason. And you know where I was? Huddled under the topmost east deck, which is largely open-air to the east, with flashes of lightning all around. If one wanted to get me, it could just as easily have gotten any one of the other 5,000 or so people that were up there with me. If you want to talk the kind of safety standard under which they're operating, the only real safety was to impose a mandatory and complete evacuation of the entire stadium, not just the interior bowl. And the folks who fled the stadium drove in perpetually flooded Norman streets, and we saw emergency vehicles head to respond to at least two accidents near the stadium. So where was their greater safety? Ah, cue the lawyers, who are only interested in protecting the stadium's liability, not visitor safety after all.

Sorry for the rant, but I've just reached the age where "something bad might happen" just isn't good enough reason to run away fearful of seemingly life itself. Also realize most probably won't agree, but that's cool. At least the lawyers haven't forbidden opinions.

Except, I suppose, "potentially offensive" ones...but that's another rant entirely.

I'll go away.

That just reinforces the stupid.

Not really!
There have been more than a few people die from lightning strikes at sporting events.
Many years ago I knew 2 kids my age who died at a football game from a lightning strike.
My dad was struck by lightning in while in the Army but survived. A person standing next to him died.

Not really!
There have been more than a few people die from lightning strikes at sporting events.
Many years ago I knew 2 kids my age who died at a football game from a lightning strike.
My dad was struck by lightning in while in the Army but survived. A person standing next to him died.
You're exactly correct. Just because nobody has ever been hit or killed at an OU game previously has nothing to do with how dangerous it can be.

I have been in a house that was struck by lightening and is a frightening experience.

I was working one day... This year... In fact, nearest storm cell was 10 miles away. Which is outside our buffer. Lightning struck just on the edge of the airport. If it had struck a half mile over, could have hit the airplane I was connected to via a cord and headset. Humbling experience. Lightning is nothing to play around with.

To me, it's a matter of the type of storm system. Saturday's weather was dreary and drizzly. Maybe it was more intense down south. Point being, systems like that tend to have "cloud to cloud" lightning as opposed to "cloud to ground" lightning. I thought it was just silly that they delayed the game that long and obviously it was nothing like the situation two seasons before where an actual thunderstorm went through the Norman area.

To me, it's a matter of the type of storm system. Saturday's weather was dreary and drizzly. Maybe it was more intense down south. Point being, systems like that tend to have "cloud to cloud" lightning as opposed to "cloud to ground" lightning. I thought it was just silly that they delayed the game that long and obviously it was nothing like the situation two seasons before where an actual thunderstorm went through the Norman area.
That was chicken feed compared to the delay for the Texas - TCU game. There is no way to make an accurate decision on something like that if you're trying to compare cloud to cloud lightning versus cloud to ground lighting. When trying to decide on the safety of 90,000 people you have to err on the side of caution.

SPC Outlooks & Discussion...

DAY 1 - they've shifted the entire risk area well north into Kansas. Both NAM and GFS keep the precip up there, though GFS does have some in Oklahoma as well but much lighter. Severe dynamics will be present in Oklahoma (NW), but coverage will probably be too limited as it looks right now.

DAY 2 - Slight Risk is focused on far western OK and the TX PH and NW TX. Both NAM and GFS are light on the precip, but severe ingredients are there.

No Day 3 just yet - NAM has slowed WAY down. It called for two rounds...one early afternoon over central OK and then a strong squall line later in the evening sweeping over much of OK. NAM has high Sig Tor rating for the evening storms, but this is due to the LLJ and overall dynamics. Wind profiles are going to be pretty linear, so expect large hail and damaging winds as the main threats. Tornado risk is there, but not high.

For today looks like main Svr risk is north into Kansas, but HRRR develops storms in SW OK instead of KS later this afternoon. So we just need to keep an eye on it.

Morning models runs continue to show SW OK with the best chance for storm development later. Not say SPC is completely off, models just aren't pushing the development of precip there. Wednesday looks like the big day this week.

This evening at 10PM.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013102812/t5/cref_t5sfc_f15.png

NAM Wednesday Evening

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_con_scp_063.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_con_stp_063.gif

HRRR finally came around to match SPC...maybe some showers in SW OK overnight tonight.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013102816/t5/cref_t5sfc_f08.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1977.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY


VALID 282133Z - 282230Z


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT


SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH NWD DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED
INTO SWRN KS LATER THIS EVENING. HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.


DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS HAS CREATED A PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT HAVE
SURGED ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. THIS
CORRIDOR IS GRADUALLY MOISTENING AT LOW LEVELS WITH SFC DEW POINTS
RISING THROUGH THE 50S JUST EAST OF VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS CU FIELD IS
DEEPENING ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER AND LOCAL RADAR SUPPORTS THIS WITH
WEAK ECHOES ALOFT OVER PARMER/DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN TX. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. WITH TIME MOISTENING
ACROSS KS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE POLAR
FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORT DEEP ROTATION AND SUPERCELLS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.


..DARROW/MEAD.. 10/28/2013

That was chicken feed compared to the delay for the Texas - TCU game. There is no way to make an accurate decision on something like that if you're trying to compare cloud to cloud lightning versus cloud to ground lighting. When trying to decide on the safety of 90,000 people you have to err on the side of caution.

Oh come on now... Had I been a sooner fan and had tickets and I was at the game I'd have been pissed. It was no threat whatsoever...