Wow, great pic of a shelf cloud. Storms with those tend to be associated with high winds when they come in.

**THIS IS FOR IOWA, NOT OKLAHOMA**

Crazy night up in Iowa...this just came out...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
740 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CHEROKEE...

AT 737 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR QUIMBY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
MAJOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN QUIMBY...WITH SEVERAL POWER POLES DOWN
WEST OF WASHTA.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO
SHELTER. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF NEIGHBORHOODS...BUSINESSES
AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO
PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CHEROKEE AROUND 750 PM CDT.
AURELIA AROUND 755 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

Severe storm with hail up to ping pong balls head for the area around Enid, Waukomis, and Hennessey.

Speaking of the bad weather in Iowa, according to KFOR, Reed Timmer has suffered an apparent seizure while in Iowa to observe severe weather. He is hospitalized in Sioux City.

Wa****a...ugh sorry... W a s h i t a... storm is the only severe one left now. Line is pretty much broken up into individual cells. Storm is moving due east now mostly. Golf ball hail and winds to 60 right now. It does have some rotation probably thanks to turn right some. It is 62 miles from the western Metro...so it will be here in under 2 hours if it holds together and stays on course.

On radar it looks like gust fronts are approaching OKC and Stillwater.

It seems to be raining.
And fairly hard.

It seems to have lessened.
Maybe even stopped.
(of course, without a radar, who knows?)

Not much of an event in my area of NW OKC.

Development zone is lagging behind front and looks to be stalled over SW OK.

Looks like entire I-44 corridor could see heavy rainfall amounts if this doesn't get a move on.

Watch for flooding later tonight/this morning.

Norman
Friday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81.
Friday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

Dallas
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

Slight risk for SVR WX in panhandle later this week.

Rain chances coming into the eastern 2/3 of the state over the weekend.

Personally hoping Saturday is dry right now...

To tag on to Anon's post.

Slight Risk by SPC out in the panhandle Thursday.

Friday looks marginal. Maybe a borderline severe storms along and north/west of I-44 in central OK. Very isolated activity expected right now.

Saturday marginal to slight risk over Central OK. Isolated to scattered activity. Dallas wise for the game...moderate rain around 7AM continuing through the early afternoon. Chance the heaviest rain will push south of the Metroplex close to game time, but isolated/scattered showers will remain all weekend.

Sunday marginal to slight over Western and Southern OK. Heavier rain overnight into mid day Sunday, with isolated storms in the evening.

Monday marginal to slight over Northern through SW OK...roundly along/east of I-35 and I-44. Front pushes through moving the rain off to the east and south. Should be done here by very late Monday evening.

Overall accumulations we are looking at some places over an inch mainly Along and east of I-44. North and west of there would be half inch to an inch.

Sadly no snow in the forecast yet. ;) Looks like a big time pool of cold air (for this time of year) will move in after the 17th over much of the country. Snow will be seen, possibly, for the first time this season over much of the Great Lakes down into Kentucky and WV.

Winter is coming.

Yay! Dryslot forecasting! Errr, I mean winter storm forecasting!

I, too, am hoping for a dry Saturday. At least until 4pm. Rescheduled that rained-out carwash lol. After that, I don't care what it does!

We haven't had a wet OU/TX game in awhile but it's looking like that is a possibility this Saturday. I remember in 2007 a big storm hit right as the game ended and everyone was soaked leaving the stadium/fair.

Models shying away from rain on Saturday. But bringing the pain heading into next week.

http://i786.photobucket.com/albums/yy148/tcrb1954/texass%20is%20suck/ou_zps587de0d7.jpg


LOL

Speaking of the bad weather in Iowa, according to KFOR, Reed Timmer has suffered an apparent seizure while in Iowa to observe severe weather. He is hospitalized in Sioux City.

Reed Timmer interviewed since his seizure: Reed Timmer talks about seizure during storm | KFOR.com (http://kfor.com/2013/10/08/reed-timmer-talks-about-seizure-during-storm/)

We haven't had a wet OU/TX game in awhile but it's looking like that is a possibility this Saturday. I remember in 2007 a big storm hit right as the game ended and everyone was soaked leaving the stadium/fair.

My son and I got out of the Fair Park area just as that storm came in. I remember the lightning and the thunder encroaching just as the game was over, and we high-tailed it to the car. We drove east out of Dallas and into a rainstorm, but stayed dry ourselves :)

My son and I got out of the Fair Park area just as that storm came in. I remember the lightning and the thunder encroaching just as the game was over, and we high-tailed it to the car. We drove east out of Dallas and into a rainstorm, but stayed dry ourselves :)

Same here....
People drive crazy on the interstates in Dallas when it rains .
I might take the Dart red line just so I can avoid driving in the worst of the road conditions if its going to rain.

Saturday still looking like low chance of rain here in C OK. Better chances eastern half of OK.

Next week is looking interesting. A strong low is going to eject out of the lower rockies and bring heavy rain to someone. Right now that someone is N TX and SE OK. Decent amouns over much of state with that system.

Models shying away from rain on Saturday. But bringing the pain heading into next week.

I hope this is supposed to mean "rain". I'm not ready full-on winter yet.

00Z GFS is in, so time to take a look ahead. First off...we've been down this road many times and everyone knows my disclaimer. So keep that in mind when looking at the tail end of the forecast. :)

Precip Chances...



Today chances of storms along and east of I-35 this afternoon and evening. Marginal risk of a storm getting grumpy, but nothing too crazy.
Saturday and most of Sunday - Scattered showers and storms, but not a total wash out by any stretch it seems.
Monday/Tuesday - Heavy rain and storms seem likely. Severe risk increases later in the day, mainly over western Oklahoma. Front pushes through Tuesday AM forcing everything off to the east through the day. Total rainfall for the weekend and Monday/Tuesday, with the vast majority being on Monday, is 1/2 inch west and SW. 1-2" central. 2-4" East.
Dry through Saturday the 19th.
Saturday 19th - Chance of storms NW.
Sunday 20th - Slight chance SW.
Monday 21st - Chance statewide, maybe a couple strong storms.
Tuesday-Wednesday - Slight chance far East and SE.
Dry through Saturday the 28th.


Temps



Some ups and downs with the chances of precip over the next several days.
Weds the 16th highs fall into the 50s and 60s...but rebound for a day. By Friday the 18th temps fall again but the big story is the fast growing cold pocket in the Prairie Provinces.
Low moves through the upper great lakes on the 22nd (Tuesday) and a front comes through here as previously noted on Wednesday. We are seeing temps in the mid 70s SE to upper 40s NW early on Wednesday. 40s and 30s widespread by afternoon.
Thursday the 24th temps could bring a hard freeze to the northern part of the state, and a light freeze elsewhere. Highs on Thursday are suggested to be in the upper 30s North of I-40 and 40s south.
Friday - hard freeze statewide (hopefully - BYE BUGS!) Highs in the upper 30s and low 40s most of the state.
Saturday (26th) - Overnight lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.


Side note...I'm not buying the temp forecast since the last few days of the GFS forecast window is very unreliable. However, we need to watch it and see if it starts showing signs of coming true.

Front is approaching the OKC area right now. In the near term, storms will continue to develop out well in front of the boundary. Showers and storms are on going over Eastern and South Central Oklahoma right now. Heavy rain and small hail, maybe some gusty winds, are main threats overnight. OKC should be on the edge of any activity tonight, so we may or may not see anything.

Here is the rainfall map for between tonight and Tuesday:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/920594_673532079332889_2116705236_o.png

When will the rain hit the metro?

Here is the rainfall map for between tonight and Tuesday:


For comparison here is GFS:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_084.gif

Timeline has scattered activity begin this afternoon through evening, an gradually increase in coverage overnight.

Forecast that likely won't happen, but GFS is mentioning it so I'll throw it out there...

Thursday October 24th
Morning Temp - Mid 40s
Afternoon High - Upper 40s
Light Rain - up to 0.10" of precip, mixing with sleet/snow late

Friday October 25th
Morning Temp - Mid 30s
Afternoon High - Low 40s
Rain/Snow or Wet Snow AM - up to 0.15" precip, < 1" of Snow
Dry PM

Today looks so much like winter outside. Grey, low clouds. Light drizzle/precip. Love this weather!

Today looks so much like winter outside. Grey, low clouds. Light drizzle/precip. Love this weather!

Definitely reminds me of home! This is how I remember Fall and Winter...well a bit colder for winter. ;)

Of course I scheduled an outdoor photo shoot for our senior class tomorrow.

Of course.

Time to check the calendar for alternate dates...Don't get me wrong, I'm happy for fall to be here. I just need it to be here in the afternoons ;)

Storms increasing over West Central Oklahoma. In addition have a line of storms along the cold front dropping SE over NW OK.

Storms to the NW just look like a quick dose of heavy rain and then they should move off quickly.

Storms to the West are moving roughly ENE. They are picking up some strength so heavy rain, small hail, and winds up to about 40-50 mph could be possible with them. They are moving about 28-30 mph to the ENE. Right now that batch should pass between Guthrie and Norman, but the cold front may catch up to them and push the batch off course a bit.

Nothing major, just some noise coming in.

Little bit of a bow curve to the storms coming in. So winds could get pretty gusty - radar estimates up to 50-55mph a few thousand feet up. Hail is indicated, but likely just very heavy rain.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/oct13/1.png

radar pics are giving me flashbacks of that awful storm earlier this year!

Update...winds generally 30-40 mph with storms.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/oct13/2.png

Storms are now severe...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
105 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 145 AM CDT


* AT 104 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
SOUTH OF LUTHER TO STELLA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAWNEE...STELLA...CHOCTAW...HARRAH...MCLOUD...CHA NDLER...JONES...
NICOMA PARK...MEEKER...WELLSTON...LUTHER...WARWICK...JOHN SON...
SPARKS...STANLEY DRAPER LAKE...DALE...BETHEL ACRES AND AYDELOTTE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

OKC needs about 7 more inches of liquid precip to beat the wettest ever on record.

Maybe we're just special, but I'm pretty sure the winds were worse than 30-40. It was raining sideways, in circles, it was like a damn hurricane! Luckily, it moved through within the half hour so it didn't get a chance to do any major damage.

OKC needs about 7 more inches of liquid precip to beat the wettest ever on record.

Only a somewhat wetter than normal remainder of the year is needed to do it. Considering how rare it has been for the OKC area to get bypassed by heavy storm systems this year, it will probably happen.

I hope so. It would be cool to have a more "legitimate" wettest record as opposed to our current anomoly.

Evening GFS still running on some sites, but will at least tease this.

Friday morning...Northern OK may get the first taste of the white stuff. Not much and likely mixed with rain if it happens at all (it will rain). Seems to be pretty early for us to have these chances show up already. It's beginning to look a like like...okay, I'll stop. :)

Side note. The new chat room seems to be working out well, so I think we'll stick with it going forward. One thing I've noticed is that during the big days this season, the server has been hit hard and it needs some love. I wanted to share some plans that I have for the site going forward and for those that have expressed interest on how to help, you can find the information there: Weather Spotlight | Weather Information, Live Chat, and Discussions on Weather in the Central US (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/) Thanks!

Maybe we're just special, but I'm pretty sure the winds were worse than 30-40. It was raining sideways, in circles, it was like a damn hurricane! Luckily, it moved through within the half hour so it didn't get a chance to do any major damage.Same here in north Edmond. . . I wonder if there were any microburst because it went crazy.

Evening GFS still running on some sites, but will at least tease this.

Friday morning...Northern OK may get the first taste of the white stuff. Not much and likely mixed with rain if it happens at all (it will rain). Seems to be pretty early for us to have these chances show up already. It's beginning to look a like like...okay, I'll stop. :)

Side note. The new chat room seems to be working out well, so I think we'll stick with it going forward. One thing I've noticed is that during the big days this season, the server has been hit hard and it needs some love. I wanted to share some plans that I have for the site going forward and for those that have expressed interest on how to help, you can find the information there: Weather Spotlight | Weather Information, Live Chat, and Discussions on Weather in the Central US (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/) Thanks!

I bet Mike Morgan would be going ecstatic if there actually was a chance of snow in OKC this early in the year.

Same here in north Edmond. . . I wonder if there were any microburst because it went crazy.

I talked to a few people about the storm at work, and they all lived in different areas and they all mentioned the crazy wind.

GFS keeping snow chances in the mix for the NW part of the state, but NAM keeps it up in Kansas. Still thinking it will be rain with maybe a flake or two mixing in, but nothing life ending. Though there is that feeling down here of... see snow flake = must find something to smash into.

lol. BREAD AND MILK!

Also noticed GFS shows mid-week winter precip chances again here for OK (looks like NE best bet.)

lol. BREAD AND MILK!

Also noticed GFS shows mid-week winter precip chances again here for OK (looks like NE best bet.)

You made me...

i6zaVYWLTkU

That is HILARIOUS! It literally had me laughing out loud, drawing strange looks from coworkers.

Light to moderate rain moving in now to the SW Metro. This first batch should move through pretty fast. Scattered stuff for the rest of the day.

Blah :(

And pretty much all of the rain moving in has fallen apart. LOL Just some isolated/scattered showers left now. Some heavier stuff back in Western OK moving ENE and also down to the SW.

Welcome to Fall.

Now either a freeze warning or frost advisory covers the majority of the state. So far a frost advisory for Oklahoma City.

Rain is mostly over for OKC area.

Picked up barely a trace. SW parts of state got around half n inch.


A lot of heaters will run for the first time tonight!

Well the rain was suppose to be over. :)

If it was a month later, this would all be snow outside this evening.

lol, yea right after I posted the drizzle machine got cranking.

OKC generally got about a tenth from all the drizzle.

Well Norman hit 32 last hour at the NWS site at Westheimer...looks like OKC has stayed above freezing so far, but a degree.

http://www.mesonet.org/images/global/pixel.gifhttp://www.mesonet.org/images/global/pixel.gifHere are the Mesonet lows...

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/today.TAIR.min.grad.png

It's chilly, willy. :cool25:

Wearing my thermal undershirt this morning.

Not sucking up or anything, but to me this is the best, most accurate, source of local weather information around.

So, I have to ask: What is the forecast for next weekend?

We are planning to take a little trip back down to the SE part of the state in order to drive from Talihina to Mena on the famous Skyline Drive in order to view the Fall foliage. Hopefully, this cold snap will have made the foliage more Fallish. Don't really want to make the trip if the weather is going to be crappy (like it was here yesterday).

What's the scoop weather-wise?
(if I may be presumptuous enough to ask)

Not sucking up or anything, but to me this is the best, most accurate, source of local weather information around.

So, I have to ask: What is the forecast for next weekend?

We are planning to take a little trip back down to the SE part of the state in order to drive from Talihina to Mena on the famous Skyline Drive in order to view the Fall foliage. Hopefully, this cold snap will have made the foliage more Fallish. Don't really want to make the trip if the weather is going to be crappy (like it was here yesterday).

What's the scoop weather-wise?
(if I may be presumptuous enough to ask)
Late October is a little early to do that, but surely some color will have started. The forecast then has highs in the 60s, and partly cloudy with no chance of rain.