View Full Version : Oklahoma Weather Discussion - September/October 2013



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venture
09-21-2013, 11:59 PM
Pretty quiet week on tap with some more rain and storms possible next week. Looking out further, starting to see the first signs of the Fall severe weather season starting to kick in the first week of October.

venture
09-23-2013, 01:48 AM
Taking another look long term tonight at the 00Z GFS run. Keep in mind this will all change, don't take it to the bank, you know the drill.

Severe Weather
Not much showing up at all right now through the first week of October. Low probabilities this Saturday with the front coming through, but should be Central or East. That's all that is showing up now.

Rain Chances
Showers/storms NW early Saturday exiting the SE by early to midday Sunday. Generally half inch, maybe an inch under heavier downpours. Another wave the following Friday (Oct 4th) could being rain to Northern OK. Other than that, dry.

Fall...Winter(?) Temps
Okay that's a bit mean of a tease, but colder weather is showing up. Saturday some places could be in the 90s ahead of the front, but then its done. Sunday high in the 70s. Early next week looks like temps in the 60s and 70s for highs. Gradual warm up after that, but then the front on Oct 4th will bring the coldest air of the season so far to many areas. Highs may struggles to hit 60 in several areas that day. Lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s that weekend until temperatures moderating some. Some areas around the Great Lakes Oct 5/6th may see their first freeze of the season (many areas already had a good frost) and also some snow mixing in with rain.

Tropics
The boring season continues. Possible system off the east coast by mid week. Then a chance of another system coming north from the Caribbean over Florida around October 4th. We'll see though. So far everything else has failed to do anything.

venture
09-25-2013, 04:03 PM
No significant updates to the forecast. Looks like a good rain coming up this weekend, some areas will see well over an inch. The following image is total accumulated precip until next Saturday, but the bulk of the rain will be this weekend.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_240.gif

Severe risk low this weekend. It does go up a bit on Tuesday/Wednesday with some isolated/scattered storms. Then maybe another chance Oct 8th with the next big front plowing through. Bigger cool down still on tap for next weekend (not this upcoming one). Highs in the 60s Saturday then a quick rebound until the Oct 8th front and highs will fall into the 50s. Overnight lows mainly in the 40s but 30s north and in low lying areas.

bandnerd
09-26-2013, 06:19 AM
So, I'm supposed to have a car wash on Saturday. Are they in the mindset that the rain will start earlier or later that day? I told the kids we were washing until it was actively raining on top of the parking lot.

venture
09-26-2013, 08:15 AM
So, I'm supposed to have a car wash on Saturday. Are they in the mindset that the rain will start earlier or later that day? I told the kids we were washing until it was actively raining on top of the parking lot.

Right now both GFS and NAM have rain starting around 10AM and remaining through much of the day into the evening. There are some hints that the line of precip could die out as it approaches Central OK and then reform to the SE, but I'm not sure if that is going to be the case right now.

warreng88
09-26-2013, 08:15 AM
I am volunteering at the Plaza Festival Saturday morning from 10-12. When is the rain supposed to be in the metro?

Anonymous.
09-26-2013, 09:08 AM
You will have to check radar friday night/saturday morning to really tell how it is going to affect your plans.


Just have a backup indoor plan ready.

I would say Saturday is the worst day this week to have a car wash. It will be raining when nobody wants a car wash, and then cool enough that no one will want to be washing cars anyways.

jmpokc1957
09-26-2013, 11:07 AM
Just an aside on a slow day here.

As a former Oklahoman in Oregon I've lamented the lack of thunderstorms that Oklahoma
is so "blessed" with. We just don't have the conditions to form such storms and the tornados that can accompany them. We do however, have very weak tornados called
"cold core tornados( funnels )" caused by the very cold pools of air that come to us down from the Gulf of Alaska which interact with localized heating/instability. Such was the case the other day here in Western Oregon.

Funnel clouds spotted around Western Oregon | Local & Regional | KATU.com - Portland News, Sports, Traffic Weather and Breaking News - Portland, Oregon (http://www.katu.com/news/local/Funnel-clouds-spotted-around-Western-Oregon-225260802.html)

Thank goodness they're not the monsters that you see in Oklahoma, but I do miss a rocking thunderstorm.

Big rain event coming for the weekend here in Oregon. No drought on Western Oregon!

Mike

bandnerd
09-26-2013, 05:47 PM
You will have to check radar friday night/saturday morning to really tell how it is going to affect your plans.


Just have a backup indoor plan ready.

I would say Saturday is the worst day this week to have a car wash. It will be raining when nobody wants a car wash, and then cool enough that no one will want to be washing cars anyways.

I obviously didn't know it was going to rain two weeks ago when I scheduled the darn thing. It's the only Saturday we were able to have it. I'd move it if I could! We'll just have to wait and see.

And it's never too cool for a car wash. We'd all rather be out there when it's 70 than 90, anyway. Less chance for burns and dehydration. Makes my job as the supervising adult a lot easier.

Anonymous.
09-26-2013, 08:22 PM
Don't for about relativity. 70 degrees now after the hot week will feel like 50 degrees. The human body is not good at adjusting to abrupt temperature changes and feeling comfortable.

70 degrees feels warm in April, but coming off of 90+ consecutive days in September is going to feel like you need a jacket.

OKCisOK4me
09-26-2013, 09:03 PM
Don't for about relativity. 70 degrees now after the hot week will feel like 50 degrees. The human body is not good at adjusting to abrupt temperature changes and feeling comfortable.

70 degrees feels warm in April, but coming off of 90+ consecutive days in September is going to feel like you need a jacket.

I think that's just your body. I'll be wearing shorts (could just be my body, lol)!

venture
09-27-2013, 01:01 AM
Slight Risk today for roughly western 1/3rd of Oklahoma. All modes of severe weather possible today - hail, wind and tornadoes.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013


VALID 271200Z - 281200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...


...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WITH WEAK
TROUGHING LINGERING EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND A SHARP UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING PROMINENT NORTH OF A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES
APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED...AS A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/
SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION...THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
12Z SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR AS A STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK DIG
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.


IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE CYCLONE MAY SLOWLY DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BEFORE A SURFACE
FRONT...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO SURGE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. WHILE A RETURN FLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING FROM THIS SOURCE
REGION MAY NOT REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE AUGMENTED BY AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
OF LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC ORIGINS...ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
LOWER/MID-LEVELS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WHILE IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INITIALLY
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE MAINTAINED. AND
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE HEATING TODAY WILL BE MORE MODEST THAN
YESTERDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS
AND SHEAR AS THE UPPER IMPULSE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...AND THE EVOLUTION OF SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.


ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...
PARTICULARLY IN DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...THIS COULD BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES ALONG THE EASTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT...AN ORGANIZING LINE OF STORMS
APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF IT...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING.


CONVECTION MAY PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE LOWER
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RELATIVELY
NARROW CORRIDOR OF PEAK LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION /CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J PER
KG/...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.


..KERR/PETERS.. 09/27/201

venture
09-27-2013, 11:20 AM
Slight Risk remains today, mainly out west. Short term HRRR keeps things out there for much of today, so not planning to worry about the chat room as it stands now.

ou48A
09-27-2013, 12:02 PM
The TV mets have mentioned there would be a strong system in about next Friday and Saturday

Anonymous.
09-27-2013, 12:37 PM
The TV mets have mentioned there would be a strong system in about next Friday and Saturday



Yup, right now GFS makes that system look like a beast. But it will be more fine-tuned as we progress.

OKCisOK4me
09-27-2013, 12:38 PM
Yup, right now GFS makes that system look like a beast. But it will be more fine-tuned as we progress.

We need a good beast!

Bunty
09-27-2013, 12:49 PM
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/740ed25a8fa3220c8e4997e54/images/Screen_Shot_2013_09_27_at_10.45.52_AM.png

ou48A
09-27-2013, 01:17 PM
Yup, right now GFS makes that system look like a beast. But it will be more fine-tuned as we progress.Thanks
I don't want any lighting delays in Norman next Saturday evening...
Hopefully the system moves past our area on Friday?

ou48A
09-27-2013, 01:19 PM
We need a good beast!

We had enough beast this past May to last me a life time!

venture
09-27-2013, 02:02 PM
Today's forecast seems to be going as planned, so no major changes. Rain tonight and tomorrow looks like a pretty general coverage of less than a half inch.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_051.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_051.gif

Going into next week, I've been hinting for the last several days at Thurs/Friday/Saturday next week as the time of the next good front and cool down. As others have mentioned, it could be of decent strength with a risk for some severe weather. GFS is holding by precip coverage, but the severe threat will be there...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_162.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_156.gif

venture
09-27-2013, 02:06 PM
Longer Range Outlook with 12Z GFS shows severe weather season back in action for the Fall with a lot of wild swings in temps with each front. Some highlights...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/09/27/12/GFS_3_2013092712_F252_CAPE_SURFACE.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/09/27/12/GFS_3_2013092712_F276_CAPE_SURFACE.png

OKCisOK4me
09-27-2013, 02:11 PM
We had enough beast this past May to last me a life time!

As noted though...drought stats are on the increase again. Need to get those back down. ;-)

Roger S
09-27-2013, 03:15 PM
As noted though...drought stats are on the increase again. Need to get those back down. ;-)

Yep.... My pond at Ardmore is about 10 feet low.... I'd like to gain at least 4 feet before we go into the winter months.

venture
09-27-2013, 03:34 PM
Spotter Training still has openings for next week. If you weren't able to do it this year, I would strongly recommend it. This is the basic course but has a ton of good information in it. Everything is conducted online.

NWS Norman Spotter Training Opportunities (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=spottertraining)

ou48A
09-27-2013, 03:35 PM
As noted though...drought stats are on the increase again. Need to get those back down. ;-)

Good rain YES
Beast NO.

silvergrove
09-27-2013, 04:56 PM
Spotter Training still has openings for next week. If you weren't able to do it this year, I would strongly recommend it. This is the basic course but has a ton of good information in it. Everything is conducted online.

NWS Norman Spotter Training Opportunities (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=spottertraining)

What exactly is this? Is this free?

venture
09-27-2013, 04:59 PM
What exactly is this? Is this free?

This class is the basic spotter training from the NWS Norman. It is free. The course goes over and reviews how to tell the difference between weather features, how to properly classify and report things, etc.

Bunty
09-28-2013, 08:26 AM
A remarkably broad and heavy rain pattern has been making its way across Oklahoma as pictured this morning. Part of northwestern Oklahoma got it extra generous. If it continues without weakening much, there will hardly be any complainers in the state talking about being bypassed this time around.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

Roger S
09-28-2013, 09:36 AM
A remarkably broad and heavy rain pattern has been making its way across Oklahoma as pictured this morning. Part of northwestern Oklahoma got it extra generous. If it continues without weakening much, there will hardly be any complainers in the state talking about being bypassed this time around.


I'm not going to hold you to this.... Somehow it will manage to fizzle out right as it gets to Ardmore and then will ramp back up when it gets east of Ardmore. ;)

Bunty
09-28-2013, 10:40 AM
I'm not going to hold you to this.... Somehow it will manage to fizzle out right as it gets to Ardmore and then will ramp back up when it gets east of Ardmore. ;)

Thanks, but give the weather some more time and you may get your inch. But I don't guarantee it.

Easy180
09-28-2013, 01:52 PM
Anyone know how much we (OKC area) ended up with?

Roger S
09-28-2013, 02:36 PM
Anyone know how much we (OKC area) ended up with?

Most of OKC received just under 1.5 inches according to Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/rainfall_since_midnight/rainfall)

yukong
09-29-2013, 02:21 PM
Anyone know how much we (OKC area) ended up with?

We live out in Surrey Hills and we had 1 3/4 inches.

SomeGuy
09-30-2013, 04:24 PM
SO I was watching the news and they said there was a risk for tornadoes on Friday, is this true?

venture
09-30-2013, 04:36 PM
SO I was watching the news and they said there was a risk for tornadoes on Friday, is this true?

Possible. This is the current supercell composite for Friday evening per GFS.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_108.gif

venture
09-30-2013, 04:57 PM
And since we are talking Friday...October 4th. This would be the 15th anniversary of the October 1998 Outbreak that produced 27 tornadoes - the most in the state in the month of October.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-19981004

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/wxevents/19981004/19981004map.gif

Tornado Table for the
4 October 1998 Oklahoma Tornado OutbreakOctober 4, 19998 Tornadoes by IntensityF0F1F2F3F4F5Total107810026
Event
Tornado
NumberDateTime
(CST)Length
of Path
(miles)width
of Path
(yards)F-ScaleKilledInjuredCountyLocation110/04/19981425-144310440F200Woods/ Alfalfa11 SSW Dacoma - 4 NW Carmen210/04/199815050.125F000Alfalfa5 SW Cherokee310/04/199816040.125F000Grant5 W Medford410/04/19981638-16411.525F000Blaine8 SW - 6.5 SW Watonga510/04/19981650-171212200F200Blaine3 SW - 9 ENE Watonga610/04/199817140.350F000Comanche5 N Medicine Park710/04/19981728-17427100F100Kingfisher6 SW - 2 SE Dover810/04/199817450.525F000Caddo1 NE Cyril910/04/19981747-17566100F100Payne/ Noble10 W - 6 NW Stillwater1010/04/19981754-17551.5200F200Grady9 WSW - 7.5 WSW Ninnekah1110/04/19981838-18390.4125F100PawneePawnee1210/04/19981915-19215100F200Grady/ McClain4 NW Blanchard - 2 SSW Newcastle1310/04/19981926-19281.533F000McClain/ ClevelandN Newcastle - SW OKC1410/04/19981934-19413580F200ClevelandMoore1510/04/19981956-1957175F000Osage1 SSW - 1 SSE Barnsdall1610/04/19982037-20403580F200Lincoln4 SE - 5 E Meeker1710/04/19982045-20526580F200Lincoln7 W - 4 NW Prague1810/04/19982050-20553100F100PottawatomieNW Shawnee1910/04/19982052-21088440F106Lincoln6 NW - 7 NNE Prague2010/04/19982058-21002100F100PottawatomieSE Shawnee2110/04/19982105-2116850F000Nowata2 NE Watovia - 10 ESE Nowata2210/04/19982108-212510880F301Seminole/ Pottawatomie5 WNW Little - Center View-3 SE Prague2310/04/199821190.550F000Tulsa3 NW Collinsville2410/04/19982137-2208271400F204Okfuskee/ Okmulgee2 SE Boley - IXL - Haydenville - 3 SW Nuyaka2510/04/19982217-22181100F100Okmulgee2 E - 2 ENE Nuyaka2610/04/199823270.850F000Wagoner1 SE Tullahassee

ou48A
09-30-2013, 10:24 PM
KFOR CH 4 OKC & KWTV CH 9 are both calling for severe weather on Friday with the possibility of a few tornadoes in Oklahoma.

CH 4's Mike Morgan also said that tornadoes are possible if not likely on Friday.

Anonymous.
10-01-2013, 09:34 AM
GFS slowing the system later this week.

venture
10-01-2013, 02:00 PM
Threat is still there for Friday but it does appear the activity may be later in the day along the front as the cap might be too much early on. NAM really keeps activity buttoned down.

Major outbreak is not really likely, so the hype machines will just need to dial it back a bit. We'll see how the evening model runs do.

SomeGuy
10-01-2013, 04:55 PM
Now they're saying a moderate risk for Friday with storms moving in to OKC around 6pm

venture
10-01-2013, 05:14 PM
Now they're saying a moderate risk for Friday with storms moving in to OKC around 6pm

So that's what happened to my neighbor's bong...

SomeGuy
10-01-2013, 05:21 PM
the 3 stations were saying about there being a mod risk, lets just hope it's not true

ou48A
10-01-2013, 05:25 PM
KFOR CH 4 (Morgan) has a moderate risk north and west of a line from near Cordell to OKC to near Pawhuska.
Indicates this will be the main tornado threat area from about 4 pm to 7:30pm

venture
10-01-2013, 05:45 PM
the 3 stations were saying about there being a mod risk, lets just hope it's not true

It is obvious that TV Station Moderate Risk != SPC Moderate Risk. Hell they don't even have us in a 30% outlook area for Friday right now. I would say definite Slight risk, but GFS and NAM aren't playing together very well right now with it so there is no reason to raise the risk level that high this far out. Except to drive ratings.

Now I will say Fall systems are different Animals than Spring and upper air dynamics with weaker instability can really do some crazy things, but I'm personally not going to get on here and start waving my arms while wearing a bedazzled [insert outfit choice here] calling for a major outbreak.

Chat room will be going for Friday and I might try to get the streaming radar video going again.

John1744
10-01-2013, 08:35 PM
Payne mentioned that conditions were looking less favorable for developing tornadoes but potential was still there.

ou48A
10-01-2013, 08:56 PM
Nobody is saying anything like this is go to be a out break of tornadoes....
But if there is only one and it hits your house the number of tornadoes makes little difference.
But it sounds like most of them are going to be in western Oklahoma...?

When is the next system due in after Fridays storm?

bchris02
10-01-2013, 10:06 PM
I think this site, with our great meteorologists like venture and Anonymous, is a better source than Mike Morgasm or David Payne. The times things were really getting hyped up and scary on here were times we needed to be scared i.e. May 20 and May 31st.

venture
10-01-2013, 10:09 PM
Payne mentioned that conditions were looking less favorable for developing tornadoes but potential was still there.

Shocker. Maybe their problem is is that they look at day old models...or they just want to hype.


Nobody is saying anything like this is go to be a out break of tornadoes....
But if there is only one and it hits your house the number of tornadoes makes little difference.
But it sounds like most of them are going to be in western Oklahoma...?

When is the next system due in after Fridays storm?

Let me re-educate on the meaning of a Moderate Risk since our media does a horrible job by bastardizing it.

Source: SPC and its Products (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#Levels of Risk)

A MDT risk implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a SLGT risk. A MDT risk is usually reserved for days with substantial severe storm coverage, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. Typical MDT risk days include multiple tornadic supercells with very large hail, or intense squall lines with widespread damaging winds.

So now that we have that cleared up...any questions on why I said what I did earlier? Stupid media going for hype.

venture
10-01-2013, 10:12 PM
Some images from the 00Z NAM this evening...

Precip will not start, per NAM, until 00Z or later Friday evening...bulk of precip SE of I-44.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_sfc_prec_075.gif

Sig Tor Risk

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_con_stp_072.gif

Supercell Composite

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_con_scp_072.gif

venture
10-02-2013, 02:40 AM
Here is SPC's slight risk (for now) for Friday... greatest risk is a 30% hatches area over Iowa, S MN, and SW WI.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif

...ERN KS...OK...WRN MO...
A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW. MODELS DIFFER AS TO LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE FASTER
SOLUTION IS GENERALLY PREFERRED WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO NWRN
TX...WRN OK AND NERN KS BY 00Z. STRONG FORCING ON THIS FRONT AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE. GIVEN THE FAST MOTION OF
THE FRONT...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE
WITH EARLY ACTIVITY WHICH COULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE GETTING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT.

SoonerDave
10-02-2013, 07:53 AM
So, right now, statewide Friday night HS football games are an iffy proposition based on the timing of this thing, no? If the stuff rolls in early, no problem, but later, they could be water rides or storm-affected...

alas...

bandnerd
10-02-2013, 11:50 AM
So, right now, statewide Friday night HS football games are an iffy proposition based on the timing of this thing, no? If the stuff rolls in early, no problem, but later, they could be water rides or storm-affected...

alas...

Somehow, I think that life will go on.

Praedura
10-02-2013, 12:01 PM
Somehow, I think that life will go on.

Stoic. :p

Anonymous.
10-02-2013, 12:04 PM
GFS still slowing down.

This is looking more and more like a late friday night/early saturday morning event with slight straight line wind damage threat at this point.

venture
10-02-2013, 12:16 PM
GFS still slowing down.

This is looking more and more like a late friday night/early saturday morning event with slight straight line wind damage threat at this point.

Shhh. You are ruining the hype monsters "moderate" risk wet dreams.

ou48A
10-02-2013, 12:22 PM
Ch 9 says about 6PM or 7PM for the NW metro
The main tornado threat will be over SW OK but the dry line would need to hang back for a time... Said the Tornado threat is very low.

venture
10-02-2013, 12:36 PM
Here are the 12Z Models. Both are for 00Z on Friday evening...so 7PM. NAM is the top solution which has some precip starting NW of I-44 by 7PM and it picks it up after that. Supercell potential is extremely low however.

GFS is still way out in NW OK for precip. It also has a higher risk of potential for supercells in Western Oklahoma.

The best chances for severe weather are going to be well north near the surface low in NE/IA.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_sfc_prec_060.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_con_scp_060.gif
GFS...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_prec_060.gifhttp://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_060.gif

ou48A
10-02-2013, 01:24 PM
Saturday night's OU game sounds seasonably cold, particularly if your in a windy part of the stadium.

SoonerDave
10-02-2013, 01:28 PM
Somehow, I think that life will go on.

Oh, no doubt, probably should have kept the comment to myself. Just that Fri nite HS football games mean lots of people in outdoor stadiums that often have to scramble in a hurry when and if lightning/hail comes around, that's all. Sorry to horn in on the thread.

ou48A
10-02-2013, 02:14 PM
Somehow, I think that life will go on.

When I was a kid I knew 2 kids that were killed at a high school football game when they were struck by lighting while standing on the sidelines watching their older brothers play. That was many years ago.... Life went on.
But lighting and high school football still doesn’t mix well.