After a very wet July, the heat is still on for August. August is typically a quiet, hot month for Oklahoma but so far this hasn't be a normal summer. The Fall severe weather season usually kicks off in late September/early October, but we also start seeing increased chances of tropical systems effecting our weather starting this time of year. For those that don't like the high summer heat, it is good to note we are now starting to decent into Fall as average highs start to decrease after August 9th.



Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Severe Weather Information

Current Watches (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/validmd.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)Tornado OutlookWind OutlookHail Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif)

Day 2 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)Day 2 Probabilistic OutlookDay 3 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)Day 3 Probabilistic Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif)

Days 4 through 8 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

D (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)ay 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day4prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day5prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day6prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day7prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day8prob.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports


Today (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif)Yesterday (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)


State Radar ImagesWSR-88D Twin Lakes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Frederick (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Vance AFB (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=vnx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars
Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date.Phased Array Radar (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml) (Next Generation Test Bed)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/NWRT_Reflectivity_00.51.pngMulti-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png)http ://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Compositehttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png)
State Satellite Images
Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif
References



COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Surface and Upper Air Data (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/)
NWS Norman Page: NWS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)
Storm Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/)
Oklahoma Mesonet: Mesonet | Home Page (http://www.mesonet.org/)
West Texas Mesonet: Texas Tech University : West Texas Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/)
Oklahoma Fire Weather: NWS Norman Fire Weather Forecasts (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather)
Oklahoma Road Conditions: Road Conditions (http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi)
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: The Southern Indiana Weather Spotter's Reference (http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php) -or- SEVERE WEATHER INDICES PAGE (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/)
TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts (http://www.twisterdata.com/)
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page (http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm)
NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/)
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/)
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)


Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) (http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/)
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.


Tutorial: WHAT SPC PERCENTAGES MEANS IN RELATION TO CATEGORICAL RISK LEVEL
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/prob_to_cat_day1_seetext.jpg
Tutorial: HOW TO READ SKEW-T CHARTS

The main Skew-T is your 3 lines with wind barbs on both sides. So the lines first off. Solid is air temp and dashed dewpoint. The dotted line is the temp of the parcel of air as it goes up. So follow that up. If the solid line is to the right of that dotted line that is air that is warmer than that parcel and the parcel won't rise. Also known as your cap. When the air parcel gets warmer than air temp that area between the solid line and dotted line, that is your CAPE. This also shows that the parcel of air will continue to rise up until it meets the air temp again. Here is a good video to help explain it...

bOnGFHXkQ8w

Okay so we are looking at that and we can things are going to be unstable with a lot of CAPE. Move of to the wind barbs on the right, that is your wind direction and speed at the various heights. This is also how we detect shear. The two main kinds are going to be speed shear and directional shear. In this exactly we are seeing surface winds out of the SE/SSE, or backed winds as you'll read often, and then they change directions to the SW and WSW as you go up in height. Good example of directional shear. Speed shear is when you have wind speed increase as you go up. We have some of that here as well. All in all this says, good shear. Sometimes you have to be careful of too much shear or speeds being too high in the upper levels because that can just rip updrafts apart.

So we got an unstable atmosphere and wind shear. Finally the squiggly line that is the hodograph. Used to find things like shear vectors and storm relative winds. These are good to help determine if you are going to be dealing with splitting storms and such. Typically in class right turning supercells we look for the hodograph to arch from the center to the right. Which we have here...for the most part. I won't get too much more into it right now, but googling should bring up a ton of resources on it. :)

So now we get down to the values. A lot of these are open to interpretation and how they play into storm formation, severe storms, and tornadoes. I'm just going to hit on a few of the variables instead of every one, otherwise this will be a book and probably confuse more than need be. Going left to right since these aren't perfect columns.



LI - Lifted Index. Negative is unstable, usually want lower than -4 for severe.
KI or K Index you usually want mid 20s for storm development and over 35 for strong development.
Equil P - That is where your air parcel meets the air temp again after getting warmer than it.
HAIL - Subjective to this sounding project on estimated hail size.
ConvT - Convective temperature or air temp needed to break cap without much forcing. This is more important in summer usually.
Lapse Rates also need to be looked at, in this care the value is favorable for severe weather.
SRH this is the Storm Relative Helicity in the first kilometer of air from the service...or your low level shear. This is also modified by the direction storms will move. Usually anything over 150 would be pretty significant.
SWEAT Index helps highlight severe storm potential. Usually 300-500 is what we look for, anything higher is significant.
TTI or Total Totals is another index looked at for storm development in general. Mid 40s are usually looked at for storm development, anything higher would indicate a more volatile setup.
Storm Dir/Speed - This is your storm direction in degrees and this is where the storm is coming from. So the example here is ~ 225 degrees which translates into moving NE. Speed is in knots so take the value and multiply by 1.15 to get MPH.
CapI - Strength of cap. Usually you want 2 or lower to help keep somewhat of a lid on things early. Over 4 requires a nuke to get rid of, less would lead to grunge fest.
LCL - Lowest cooling level. This is the atmospheric pressure height (measured in millibars) where the air can condense and form clouds. So a high number here means the level is lower to the ground and better chance for surface based convection. If you see numbers lower than say 850 mb, you are talking mostly high based elevated storms. Tornadoes need high LCL values (or lower cooling levels) since they are tied with surface based storms in most cases.
Sup Potential: Value specific to this product estimating percentage chance if any storm forms that it will be severe.
Precip Water measures the amount of water in the air. Usually you don't want it more than 1.5 or 1.75 for severe storms otherwise you are looking at just heavy rain. Lower than say 0.75 and its going to be too dry for much precip.
CAPE most are familiar with. Anything over 0 is unstable. Depending on the season will determine how much you need. Usually anything over 2000 j/kg is very unstable. However as we get into late spring/summer you'll see values over 5000 but not get anything. Even though its extremely unstable, it doesn't do any good without lift or something to break a cap.
CINH: Convective inhibition. Usually when you start getting lower than -100 you have issues getting anything going.
0-1km Shear - Like earlier this is your shear in the first kilometer of air, but this isn't storm direction dependant. When you start getting over 100 to 150 in this department you need to start being vigilant.
1km EHI or Energy Helicity Index another way to measure energy/shear. Usually more than 2 or 3 is pretty high.


That's pretty much the main ones without going longer...which I already went a bit too long. We can get more specific about the individual values if more clarification is needed. I went pretty general and with a broad brush on a lot of these. This is mainly to give you an idea of what to look for. The main thing to remember is that so much goes into this, and hopefully this is another example of how much there is, that you can't focus on just a few of these and figure big time storms. Think of it as a recipe. You have to have near perfect amounts of each to get a good tasting soup...otherwise you are just left with a pot full of odd smelling/looking/tasting water.

I know a few were touching on this in the July thread...

I'm all for August to look like this...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image5.jpg

With little surprise, most of the western 3/4s of Oklahoma is now drought free.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/ok_dm.png

With little surprise, most of the western 3/4s of Oklahoma is now drought free.I think you mean "eastern"...

The drought has really improved.... Who would have thought.... In fact the experts predicted the drought to grow worse....
But they are frequently wrong about the longer range weather on our earth.

I'm hearing on TV that we may have anouther cool off and rain in about 7 or 8 days.
If this verify's it looks like we will escape with a pretty nice summer in central Oklahoma.

The drought has really improved.... Who would have thought.... In fact the experts predicted the drought to grow worse....
But they are frequently wrong about the longer range weather on our earth.

I'm hearing on TV that we may have anouther cool off and rain in about 7 or 8 days.
If this verify's it looks like we will escape with a pretty nice summer in central Oklahoma.

This has been a wonderful summer weather wise in virtually every conceivable way. Just about perfect as far as I'm concerned.

With little surprise, most of the western 3/4s of Oklahoma is now drought free.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/ok_dm.png

When I look at that graphic I'm a bit surprised that Comanche County is still in the "severe" category. They have had a lot of rain the last couple of months.

^
Well, to be fair they were in the extreme to exceptional category as recently as April, so the rain has helped.

The drought has really improved.... Who would have thought.... In fact the experts predicted the drought to grow worse....
But they are frequently wrong about the longer range weather on our earth.

I'm hearing on TV that we may have anouther cool off and rain in about 7 or 8 days.
If this verify's it looks like we will escape with a pretty nice summer in central Oklahoma.

Just goes to show, it's easy to forecast drought when you're already in one. Drought conditions bring on more drought like conditions. So it made sense at the time.

However, random storms and setups can really localize rainfall and OKC has been lucky, while all of western OK is in the dry boat still.


This is why I hate long range (season-type) forecasts. They are mostly based on history and give people a false guide of the future.



Can't wait for the "winter" season forecast - maybe they will switch from "above normal temps and drier than normal precip" to the opposite since our summer has been an anomaly.

Much of Texas and western OK & KS could still use a tropical system.

Weather update for N Texas.... HOT

I think you mean "eastern"...

True. Then the eastern 3/4. Thanks.

Just goes to show, it's easy to forecast drought when you're already in one. Drought conditions bring on more drought like conditions. So it made sense at the time.

However, random storms and setups can really localize rainfall and OKC has been lucky, while all of western OK is in the dry boat still.


This is why I hate long range (season-type) forecasts. They are mostly based on history and give people a false guide of the future.



Can't wait for the "winter" season forecast - maybe they will switch from "above normal temps and drier than normal precip" to the opposite since our summer has been an anomaly.


Yep
When we don't understand very much about what the weather will do past about 10 days or so it makes it preety hard to beive predictions of what the worlds weather will be in 5, 10, 25 or 50 years or more.

Actually it's quite possible to forecast below average, average, and above average precip and temperature for seasons from sea surface temperatures. There are yearly, decade, and century changes that have been consistent in sea current and temperature change. It's not prefect, far from it, but it's possible and has been helpful to energy, farming, and other companies. Of course we can't depict a storm a months out from now, but monthly and seasonal forecasts of below, average, or above average temps and precip are possible..

Actually it's quite possible to forecast below average, average, and above average precip and temperature for seasons from sea surface temperatures. There are yearly, decade, and century changes that have been consistent in sea current and temperature change. It's not prefect, far from it, but it's possible and has been helpful to energy, farming, and other companies. Of course we can't depict a storm a months out from now, but monthly and seasonal forecasts of below, average, or above average temps and precip are possible..Yes its possible, just like its possible to make a bad 2 day forecast.
Just watch all hell break lose when the weather folks predict a major sever weather event for the OKC area that doesn’t materialize.

We are in pure summer mode this week. Tapering off temperatures towards the end of the week around Thursday.

Expect 100 or close to until about that Thursday when we see a boundary shift south and give us on/off chances of storms heading into the weekend.

We are in pure summer mode this week. Tapering off temperatures towards the end of the week around Thursday.

Expect 100 or close to until about that Thursday when we see a boundary shift south and give us on/off chances of storms heading into the weekend.

Really, though, it's not that bad. This has been a pretty awesome summer, especially considering there wasn't any tropical development that moved through to cause the rain and cooler temps. Thank you, Mother Nature.

Much of Texas and western OK & KS could still use a tropical system.

It's amazing how in Kansas within the width of just four counties you can go from no drought at all to the worst drought category.

Not much hope for us in Central OK, but maybe a couple clouds for tomorrow.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1629.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT MON AUG 05 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/SRN KS...SRN NEB...EXTREME NRN OK.


CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...


VALID 052308Z - 060045Z


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468
CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...WW MAY BE REPLACED TO ACCOMMODATE SEWD SHIFT IN SVR THREAT
ACROSS MAINLY KS...IN STEP WITH SVR TSTM CLUSTER MOVING SSEWD ACROSS
EXISTING WW 468 AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT NEAR
KS/OK BORDER.


DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE/ROUGHLY SEMICIRCULAR
OUTFLOW POOL EMANATING FROM ORIGINAL LOCUS OF NWRN KS CONVECTION.
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WAS DRAWN AT 23Z FROM EXISTING TSTM CLUSTER
OVER NESS/LANE COUNTIES THROUGH FINNEY/HAMILTON COUNTIES...THEN
ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NERN CO...BACK NEWD OVER IML AREA TO SRN LINCOLN
COUNTY NEB. WITH SFC DEW POINTS 70S F...MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG AND
35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN PRECONVECTIVE/PRE-OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT OVER SWRN NEB...ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS ARE PSBL FROM
TSTMS ERUPTING ALONG NEB SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY...BEFORE THAT ACTIVITY
IS UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM OVER
THAT AREA DUE TO MORE DISORGANIZED/SHORTER-DURATION NATURE OF SVR
THREAT.


HOWEVER...CONVECTION WITH WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL OVER WRN KS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO RICHLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED
N OF SFC WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED NEAR OK BORDER. S OF THAT
FRONT...HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MAY SUPPORT SVR GUST POTENTIAL WITH ANY
CONVECTION MOVING SEWD INTO THAT AIR MASS. UPSCALE EXPANSION OF
WARM-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY MERGE WITH WRN KS TSTM COMPLEX DURING
01Z-03Z TIME FRAME OVER S-CENTRAL KS...ENLARGING MCS AND FURTHER
REINFORCING ITS COLD POOL FOR FORCED ASCENT OF HIGH-THETAE AIR TO
ITS E...OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN KS AND NERN OK. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL...AND STABILIZATION OF MUCH OF NWRN KS FOR SFC-BASED
PARCELS CAUSED BY COLD POOL...ADDITIONAL WW IS BEING CONSIDERED THAT
WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF CENTRAL/SRN KS AND PERHAPS EXTREME NRN
OK...POSSIBLY AS REPLACEMENT FOR WW 468.


..EDWARDS.. 08/05/2013

It's amazing how in Kansas within the width of just four counties you can go from no drought at all to the worst drought category.

It's amazing that the latest drought monitor shows Carter County to be out of the drought yet my pond that was 12' low to start the year is still 6' low.

Even more amazing we topped both spillways in November 2011 and April 2012. I had never seen it top both spillways until the November 2011 storm. We went from 14' low to over both spillways in 24 hours that day.

5 day forecast for the DFW area.... HOT & HUMID with a 10% chance of rain.. Actually that's the forecast for the month.

Pushed to updates to the website today since we are stuck in the slow period of the year: Site Updates ? Mobile Version & New Chat Tests | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=415)

First is added the mobile version to the site for public testing. I'm sure there are bugs so just let me know. Access it via: WxSpotlight (http://m.weatherspotlight.com/)

Second, and probably the bigger one, is the new chat room. Finally found a platform that I feel will work. Access it via: Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

It is open and running right now for testing. I'm not in there all the time, but feel free to go in and see how it feels and let me know if it will work.

Weather wise looks like we are stuck in this rut for at last a couple more weeks. Joy oh joy.

It's much better than the rut we were stuck in at this time last year. LOL

Canton getting good drink tonight.

Front is slowly sagging south. Evening storm activity with shift with it throughout day tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Slight Risk today includes all of the Metro area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT WED AUG 07 2013


VALID 071300Z - 081200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...


...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ENEWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AS SFC WINDS BECOME
BACKED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...SW KS AND NW OK. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S F SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE FROM
SERN CO EWD ACROSS SRN KS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.


FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT PERRYTON TX AND GAGE OK AT 00Z/THU SHOW MLCAPE
IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH AROUND 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IF CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP FROM THE ERN OK PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK WHERE SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SELY
HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD
EXTEND EWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS WHICH SHOULD HELP LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. STORM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND MARKEDLY IN THE EARLY EVENING AS AN MCS ORGANIZES
AND MOVES SEWD INTO NW AND CNTRL OK WHERE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IF A
BOWING MCS CAN DEVELOP AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST.

MD out for TX panhandle. Storms should intiate along the front boundary and spread east.

Just throwing this in as it is somewhat weather related.

APOD: 2013 July 31 - 130 Years of Earth Surface Temperatures (http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130731.html)

Storm in NE Texas County (panhandle) is just beating up that area. Winds over 70 mph expected and it isn't moving.

Storm in NE Texas County (panhandle) is just beating up that area. Winds over 70 mph expected and it isn't moving.

At least they are getting much needed rain!

Severe storms continue in the PH and new severe storms moving up through SW OK. Other storms popping up in Central OK back to the East.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/7-3.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0485_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1025
PM UNTIL 500 AM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENID
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483...WW 484...


DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WHILE OTHER STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE RED
RIVER AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
OBSERVED BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES SUPPORTING FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO EXPAND EAST OF PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED WW 483 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE EVOLVING LINE OF STORMS.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.

Quick look at the storms in Central OK. Most activity is east of I-35. Left image is base reflectivity and the right image is echo tops showing where some of the elevated/new convection is popping up but isn't dropping precip yet.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/7-4.png

Hail size might be getting close to severe limits just north of Spencer.

Local Watch extension...

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 485...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1101 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKC009-015-017-055-075-149-081000-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0485.000000T0000Z-130808T1000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 485 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 5 AM CDT THURSDAY

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CANADIAN

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CADDO GREER KIOWA

IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA

BECKHAM WA****A

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...CORDELL...EL RENO...
ELK CITY...HOBART...MANGUM...MUSTANG...SAYRE AND YUKON.

64 mph gust at the mesonet site near Clinton.

Looks like some storms in the Canton watershed will collide. Hopefully the 35mph movement will be slow enough for the catchment of Canton...

Slight Risk today for all areas of the state north of a Wichita Falls - Waurika - Sulphur - McAlester - Fort Smith line.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...


...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SLOW TO CHANGE AS HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCKING PERSISTS...BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A PROMINENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MID/UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL STILL RISE A BIT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...IN THE WAKE OF ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA. HEIGHT RISES MAY BE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE...NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARKS PLATEAU REGION...AND ANOTHER EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM OF A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW/UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST.


IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED...EAST-WEST ORIENTED...BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...
ALTHOUGH SOME NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS/MISSOURI TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STALLED ACROSS THE LOWER/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.


SOUTH OF THE EASTERN FRONT...AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT EXISTS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...THOUGH...ASIDE FROM SOME STEEPENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.



...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...
AS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IMPULSE MIGRATES EASTWARD...IT APPEARS THAT A COUPLE OF AREAS OF FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. ONE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ANOTHER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE COULD SUPPORT GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE PRESENCE OF SIZABLE CAPE...WHILE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL IN INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

If we look at short term models this is how it stacks up.

Existing cells in Western OK will move east into Central OK by 2PM. Shouldn't really get all that intense at all, maybe some moderate to heavy rain.

At that time storms should erupt in the southern TX PH. These will evolve into a complex of storms reaching the OK border by 5PM. Complex/line may straight from Roger Mills County well south into West Texas.

That complex will weaken over time as it moves east and should reach Central OK by 10-11PM. Additional storms will be moving into W OK from the TX PH as well as additional convection firing off in SW OK - much like last night.

CU bubbling up in S TX Panhandle. MD is out for the area much like yesterday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0487_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS


* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF BORGER TEXAS TO 90 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY WITHIN AN AXIS OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW...NOW NORTHWEST OF
LUBBOCK. AS A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODESTLY STRONG CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. EVENTUALLY...STORMS PROBABLY WILL CONSOLIDATE
AND EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND A STRENGTHENING COLD
POOL...WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST TEXAS.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.

Things starting to get going. Cells going up south of Lawton area. And large MCS forming in NW TX. SW OK could see a damaging wind event tonight if things start to go linear.

This shows a model interpretation of how the radar will look very early this morning.

https://sphotos-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/625500_672275936135045_967509721_n.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0488_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA


* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 535 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487...


DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND N OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. WITH SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO
AROUND 30 KT FROM THE WEST AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT --
GIVEN DEGREE OF OBSERVED CAPE -- TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY...THOUGH POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO SMALL BOWING CLUSTERS.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.

So far only severe activity has been out east. One storm in the SW moving ENE is near severe limits right now. Will slowly moving into SW OK, but the cells seem to start moving more east and fall apart as they get across the Red River.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/8-1.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1669.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT THU AUG 08 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX...CNTRL OK


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


VALID 082202Z - 082330Z


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT


SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD OUT
OF WRN TX INTO N-CNTRL TX AND CNTRL OK. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS IS POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.


DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY NE OF
AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. AIRMASS
OVER W TX...WHERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED...IS
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S...AND STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES. AS THE UPPER IMPULSE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...STORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO N-CNTRL TX AND CNTRL OK. DEWPOINTS N OF THE RED RIVER
ARE IN THE 70S...WHICH IS AIDING IN HIGH SURFACE THETA-E...PW VALUES
NEAR 2.0 INCHES...AND MLCAPE FROM 1000-2500 J/KG. AS STORMS
ENCOUNTER THIS ENVIRONMENT...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OK. AS A RESULT...THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE ENHANCED...AND COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


..GARNER/GOSS.. 08/08/2013

Watch up

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0489_radar.gif

WWUS30 KWNS 082315
SAW9
SPC AWW 082315
WW 489 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 082320Z - 090500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50N OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/ - 65SW GYI/SHERMAN TX/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /21SE END - 24WNW TTT/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS


* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM 620 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHERMAN TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487...WW 488...


DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS AREA TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE -- PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE/ORGANIZE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIDED BY MODERATE SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO BOWING CLUSTERS IS EVIDENT...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Storm going up pretty fast in SW OK...moving ENE. Track is from the hail core.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/8-2.png

Storms are starting to fire at a good clip now from near Hobart down to the existing storms north of Wichita Falls.

For those that will be around tonight, will be testing out the new chat room since we have severe weather in the area tonight.

Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

Threat increasing for damaging hail and wind out west.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/8-3.png

Warning is finally out.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 745 PM CDT


* AT 652 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
NORTH OF COOPERTON TO ROOSEVELT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

Looking at the 7-day forecast, this looks far more like a late May/early June pattern than it does August. Do you think we'll see any high end severe weather in this coming weeks?

Looking at the 7-day forecast, this looks far more like a late May/early June pattern than it does August. Do you think we'll see any high end severe weather in this coming weeks?

Doubtful, but something isolated can always be considered "high end" if it really messes someone's day up. :)

Wind damage potential increasing out west...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/8-4.png

Outflow boundaries from the storms in SW OK going to effect the ones in NW TX. Will be interesting to see how the convection in SW OK spreads.

Right now dewpoints are insanely juicy.

Outflow boundaries from the storms in SW OK going to effect the ones in NW TX. Will be interesting to see how the convection in SW OK spreads.

Right now dewpoints are insanely juicy.

Everything just started to go up over the last 10 minutes there. Have a few boundaries down there intersecting each other.

New warning for the severe complex...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 830 PM CDT


* AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
EAST OF COOPERTON TO TOM STEED RESERVOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SNYDER...MOUNTAIN PARK...INDIAHOMA...MEDICINE PARK...ROOSEVELT...
MANITOU...HEADRICK...COOPERTON...WARREN...MEERS... TOM STEED
RESERVOIR AND LAKE LAWTONKA.

Right now dewpoints are insanely juicy.

The dew point is 79 in Norman.

I can't ever remember an August dew point that high this time of day in our area?
Somebody going to get drenched I do believe?

Line approaching Amarillo in the TX PH is flying east. Will most likely catch up to the convection in W and SW OK tonight and be one big conglomerate.

Strongest storm right now is out near Cordell with confirmed 1" hail. Batch to the SW is mostly a wind threat as hail sizes are down.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/8-5.png

I say that and a golf ball hail report just came in near Cache about 10 minutes ago.

Hail size increasing on storm heading to near and west of Clinton. Cell is a left mover and is actually getting ready to have a left splitting cell as well. Strongest winds and some rotation near Burns Flat.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/8-6.png