Warning now out on the Clinton storm.

Also the FloodWatch has been extended south to include the OKC metro.

Weak rotation coming up on the Clinton storm as it is taking a supercell structure.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1704.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN OK...CNTRL/SRN AR...FAR
NRN TX


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY


VALID 122100Z - 122300Z


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT


SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SVR INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND EVENING HOURS.


DISCUSSION...SFC OBS INDICATE A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL AR WWD INTO SERN OK THAT ALSO ARCS NWWD INTO
NWRN OK. GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE -- AND ATTENDANT STRONGER/MORE
WIDESPREAD COLD POOL ORGANIZATION -- ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MORE NOTABLE SWD/SEWD MOTION OF
THE BOUNDARY FROM SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR...WHILE THE BOUNDARY IS MORE
QUASI-STATIONARY NWWD INTO NWRN OK.


THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S
OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S
AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH A FEW STORMS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SVR WIND/HAIL ON A SPORADIC BASIS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD EXIST INVOF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY SEGMENT OF THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL OK INTO NWRN
OK...WHERE CONVECTION MAY HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL TO BE UNDERCUT BY
THE BOUNDARY.


HOWEVER...AREA VWP DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL
REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHERE
RELATIVELY MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY PRECLUDE
SUSTENANCE OF INTENSE CONVECTION. THE LACK OF OVERLAP OF FAVORABLY
STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY-LAYER BUOYANCY FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AMIDST ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LARGELY
MITIGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT FROM EVOLVING.


..COHEN/KERR.. 08/12/2013

Here is the severe storm out to the west. Movement SE at 15-20 mph. Track is on the main hail core/inflow area of the storm.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/12-1.png

Outflow boundary passing through Norman now and extends SW towards the area between Lindsay and Alex. It should run into the storm near Chickasha here in the next 15-20 minutes. This is the storm that produced 1" hail over Fort Cobb Lake is weakening right now but maybe we'll get something out of it..

Svr warned cell moving in now...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT


* AT 1003 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF YUKON...MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...MIDWEST CITY...MOORE...DEL CITY...YUKON...
BETHANY...WARR ACRES...CHOCTAW...SPENCER...NICOMA PARK...STANLEY
DRAPER LAKE...TINKER AIR FORCE BASE...FOREST PARK AND VALLEY BROOK.

Radar update...

Hail is staying away from severe levels for now. Wind doesn't look to be that significant at the moment. Does appear things are down slightly from a couple minutes ago.

Four Panel is Base Refl, SRV, Hail Size, and NROT.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/12-2.png

Estimated 60 mph gust 3 SW of Bethany at 10:10.

TDWR out of Norman has the highest winds near S 44th and I-35 in S OKC. Only 35-45 mph though at the most it would appear.

Think that is all the metro will see tonight?

Short term model still want to pop stuff up along/south of I-40 through the overnight, so we'll need to keep an eye on that. Outflow boundary from SW OK is moving up through Chickasha now. Also seeing some new stuff in far NW OK.

Storm north of Cyril starting to get a bit stronger. Hail approaching one inch and some pretty strong winds in it now.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/12-3.png

Storm is officially severe now. Hail size is coming up. Radar estimates 3.26" which I think is well overblown due to some extremely heavy rain ( and fat rain drops at that).

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT


* AT 1157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR VERDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHICKASHA...VERDEN...AMBER...NORGE...MIDDLEBERG... TABLER AND
LAVERTY.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/12-4.png

Good Lord... storming and raining again up there.

Right now most of the OKC metro is above 1.5 inches with southern sides approaching 2 inches.


So far the winners from this round are in east central OK with close to 4 inches in the area around Bristow to Eufaula.

It's raining here... thanks for sending it down !!!

Another wave of storms and showers moving in from north. Should be in OKC by dark.

Looks like they are falling apart...so we might not get anything. I'm all for rain and thunder overnight...helps with sleeping. :)

Yup looks like we wait until later this week.

Slight risk tomorrow mainly west of I-35 and I-44. Hail and wind main threats.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013


VALID 151200Z - 161200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...


EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX OVER SERN MT/NERN WY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SSEWD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO A POSITION OVER SWRN NEB/NERN CO BY 18Z.
THIS FEATURE IS SEASONALLY STRONG AND IS QUITE COOL AT MID
LEVELS...MINUS 12C AT 500MB. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG
NWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS FOR MID AUGUST WITH 40KT EXPECTED ACROSS KS
AT PEAK HEATING. THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE A WEAK SFC LOW WILL
EVOLVE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER NERN CO BY MID DAY WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NEB/NRN
KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE
BREACHED BY 18Z ACROSS THIS REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
WITHIN MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 00Z NAM ALLOWS 4000 J/KG
SBCAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS WITHIN INFLOW REGION FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIGGING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE DUE SOUTH AT
ROUGHLY 20KT BUT IF STORM MERGERS OR BOWING STRUCTURES EVOLVE THEN
FORWARD SPEEDS MAY INCREASE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF
CLUSTERS EVOLVE. IF AN MCS EVOLVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KS/NWRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS
OF NWRN TX AFTER DARK.

Slight Risk has been moved west a bit. However, latest HRRR showing scattered storms today over much of Oklahoma. Also complexes are expected to form in KS and drop south overnight. HRRR is showing that but as usual placement can be off by 50-100 miles at this point still.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013


VALID 151300Z - 161200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
CENTRAL/WRN KS TO NW TX...


...CENTRAL/WRN KS TO NW TX THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE
MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SSEWD FROM THE
WY/NEB/SD BORDER TO KS/OK OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONSIST OF A WEAK LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL
DEVELOP SSEWD FROM THE NE CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON TO NW TX BY
FRIDAY MORNING. ON THE MESOSCALE...A WEAKENING MCV WILL PROGRESS
SEWD FROM SW KS TO WRN OK...AS ANOTHER MCV /WITH AN ONGOING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/ MOVES SEWD FROM SW/S CENTRAL NEB TO N CENTRAL/NE
KS THIS AFTERNOON.


CONVECTION WITH THE NEB MCV SHOULD WEAKEN SOME THIS MORNING...BUT
THE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
STORM INITIATION INTO NRN KS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. LIKEWISE...THE
WRN EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE WEAK LEE CYCLONE NEAR
THE KS/CO BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL
HAVE LARGELY REMOVED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...WITH STORMS SPREADING SWD/SSEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...REACHING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK
TONIGHT. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON INVOF
THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF
LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KY NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE INITIAL
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE
RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A
SWD-MOVING MCS.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013081510/t5/cref_t5sfc_f15.png

Storms/showers popping up over Central KS right now.

Echos coming up in west central OK now, as well.

HPC showing total precip totals just over an inch in a narrow swath from SW KS into C OK.

Updated risk is much in the same place, but threat potential is up a bit in NW OK.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013


VALID 151630Z - 161200Z


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL...


CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRA GENL TSTM LINE OVER MAINE.


...WRN TO CNTRL KS SOUTH TO TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRENGTHENING NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM FROM
MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE RIPPLING SSEWD ALONG/NEAR
SFC/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO TO TX PNHDL BY FRIDAY MORNING.


MORNING WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT AT LEAST TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS KS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FIRST...A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT MCS...WAS MOVING INTO NRN KS LATE
THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS EXTENDED FROM
E-CNTRL KS WWD/NWWD TO NERN CO. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING AMIDST AN EXPANDING ACCAS FIELD WELL AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN/CNTRL OK. WEAK POST-OUTFLOW CONVECTION
WAS PERSISTING OVER NERN CO AND SRN NEB.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MT/WY. THIS IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY ACT TO REINFORCE OR SUSTAIN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.


HEATING/MIXING WILL ELIMINATE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
30-50 KT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
INITIALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH ARE
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RESPECTIVELY
AND THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO INITIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SUPERCELL
GUSTS...SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR UPSCALE/MCS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED AND PROBABLY FOCUSED FROM SRN KS TO NRN OK DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

Latest HRRR has mainly isolated activity for Central OK for much of the next 12 hours. A few cells had gone up west of the Metro area but have since died off. Another batch is now on going up from south of Medford over to Salt Plains Lake. Additional, and more significant, storms are expected to form by 7PM over NW OK and evolve into a southward moving MCS. There is a small chance storms in KS could induce some additional development south of us tonight, but so far HRRR isn't sustaining it.

I've been loving the weather of late, especially the past few days. Really moderate temps, sunshine, and lots and lots of those big, fat, fluffy "cotton candy" type clouds rolling by -- the kind I used to love to watch as a kid (laying down on the ground looking up).

Last night I caught a gliimpse of the sunset and it was breathtaking. Gorgeous mix of orange and gold. Didn't have a camera with me, dangit.

I've been loving the weather of late, especially the past few days. Really moderate temps, sunshine, and lots and lots of those big, fat, fluffy "cotton candy" type clouds rolling by -- the kind I used to love to watch as a kid (laying down on the ground looking up).

Last night I caught a gliimpse of the sunset and it was breathtaking. Gorgeous mix of orange and gold. Didn't have a camera with me, dangit.



Yes, the evenings have been great.

A few nights ago when the storms rolled in with lightning, I was at a spot I could clearly see the moon sliver with the thunderstorm around it. It would have been a great photo op if I had it on hand.

Storms are developing in Central OK moving very slowly to the SE at 10-15 mph at the most. Heavy rain and maybe some small hail will be the main threats for now.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/15-1.png

MD is out:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1722.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151950Z - 152115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SRN KS SWD
ACROSS OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS. WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY ONCE IT CAN BE
DETERMINED WHERE THE CELL COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS
WCNTRL OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F. MLCAPE ON THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST CORRIDOR FROM WRN OK NWD INTO SW KS IS ESTIMATED FROM 1500
TO 2500 J/KG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A FIELD OF CUMULUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...A
FEW CELLS HAVE INITIATED IN NW OK AND IN NW TX ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
WHERE THE AIRMASS IS UNCAPPED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE
FURTHER TO THE WEST AS SFC TEMPS APPROACH 90 F LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IF A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE...THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE
GREATEST WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE MOST PROMINENT WITH CELLS THAT CAN
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SWD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN WRN OK.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013

Will probably get a warning soon for Blaine/Kingfisher counties soon. New development also down by Anadarko and Chickasha.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/15-2.png

Watch is out.

SPC AWW 152013
WW 492 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 152020Z - 160400Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40N P28/MEDICINE LODGE KS/ - 75SSE CDS/CHILDRESS TX/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /48W ICT - 57N ABI/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34020.

This includes the Metro and Western/Central OK along and west of I-35

Getting some rotation now on the storm east of Watonga. Hail size may start coming up a good deal soon.

I will have the chat room open for the evening. Link: Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40) or via the mobile site at WxSpotlight (http://m.weatherspotlight.com) and just click chat. Feedback would be welcome. :)

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 400 PM CDT


* AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF GRANDFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0492_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS


* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NW TX TO SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.
REGION LIES WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND EXPECT CONTINUED
BACKGROUND ASCENT TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORMS GIVEN GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADING SEWD FROM WRN KS WILL ALSO AID IN
INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING SO THAT STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT
WITH TIME. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MUTLICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE ORGANIZED MCS WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND AND
HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34020.

Little to no movement with that guy. Going to be a hailer for sure.

Canadian County storm approaching severe levels, if not already. Radar hail estimate 2.19".

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/15-3.png

The warning...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 445 PM CDT


* AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF COGAR...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

The National Weather Service In Norman Has Issued A

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning For...
Southeastern Caddo County In Southwest Oklahoma...
Northeastern Comanche County In Southwest Oklahoma...
Extreme Southwestern Grady County In Central Oklahoma...

* Until 530 Pm Cdt

* At 445 Pm Cdt...National Weather Service Meteorologists Detected A
Severe Thunderstorm Located Near Cyril...Moving South At 15 Mph.

Hazards In The Warning Include...
Half Dollar Size Hail...
Damaging Winds In Excess Of 60 Mph...

* Locations Impacted Include...
Cyril...Fletcher...Sterling And Cement.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Move Inside A Sturdy Building Until The Storm Has Passed.
&&

...a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 530 pm cdt
for northeastern comanche...extreme southwestern grady and
southeastern caddo counties...

At 502 pm cdt...national weather service meteorologists continued to
detect a severe thunderstorm located 4 miles northeast of sterling...
Moving south at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Half dollar size hail...
Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Cyril...fletcher...sterling and cement.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Move inside a sturdy building until the storm has passed.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1725.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...KS AND OK


CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492...493...


VALID 152346Z - 160145Z


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
492...493...CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST AS IT DROPS SWD
ALONG AND JUST E OF I-35 FROM KS INTO NRN OK THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SWWD PROPAGATION COULD OCCUR. OTHER STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL EXIST ACROSS NWRN KS...AND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH THIS EVENING.


DISCUSSION...A PRIMARY CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SSEWD AND WILL AFFECT THE WICHITA AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. THESE STORMS WERE RIDING SWD ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT...BUT WITH ONLY VERY WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITH SWLY 850 MB
WINDS AROUND 10 KT. THE PROPAGATION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD POOL
SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM MOTION.


TO THE W...SCATTERED CELLS WERE MOVING SEWD OUT OF NEB AND INTO NWRN
KS. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND AN EVENTUAL MCS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH COLD POOL CAN BE GENERATED. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.


FOR SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PRESENT...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOLING WITH TIME...MAKING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD
AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.


..JEWELL.. 08/15/2013

That cluster is nasty right now. This could be serious damaging wind event overnight tonight. A lot of untapped moist air ahead.

Looks like it has weakened below severe levels now. Not seeing much in the way of high velocities on radar. So for now just a wall of water.

Looks like new development along/ahead of the initial gust front. Might see this go severe again once it hits the border.

One hour projection of the storms.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/15-4.png

Interesting forecast from HRRR for midnight...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013081522/t5/cref_t5sfc_f07.png

Isn't 05:00 UTC = 23:00 CDT?

Looks like east side of this line is going to continue to push while the west side lags behind and trains cells along the boundary. This equals heavy pockets of rain over repeated areas.

Looks like Bunty is going to receive some wind damage in Stillwater.

Isn't 05:00 UTC = 23:00 CDT?

Nope. We are -5 right now and will be -6 once we go back to CST.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1726.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK


CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492...


VALID 160304Z - 160500Z


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492
CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED
UNLESS INTENSITY INCREASES.


DISCUSSION...AN MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE IN A SWD DIRECTION OUT OF
KANSAS AND NOW INTO NRN OK. THE ERN FRINGE IS BEING IMPEDED BY MORE
STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE E. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT NEW CELLS WERE FORMING ALONG THE WRN FRINGE
NEAR P28.


WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND W OF I-35...AND
WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WARMER INFLOW AIR WITH 10-15 KT SWLY 850 MB
FLOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WIND OR HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
NRN...CNTRL...AND WRN OK. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN INTENSITY. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...A NEW WATCH COULD BE
REQUIRED.


..JEWELL.. 08/16/2013

One severe storm to the NW near Alva. MCS continues south. Gust front is now in the Metro area pushing through Guthrie. Not much wind with it. Max winds per mesonet in the complex only 25-35 mph right now. Few more storms have popped out west, but nothing widespread. Storm track is based on gust front position and goes out 1 hour.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/aug13/15-5.png

Looks like Bunty is going to receive some wind damage in Stillwater.

Probably not. In Stillwater, it's been a fairly tame standard variety heavy thunderstorm, likely with no hail, that didn't merit a warning. Wind gusts probably didn't get over 40 mph. May get at least an inch of rain out of it. If warnings don't get issued, I don't think OKC needs to worry much about it coming in.

Gust front is about 7 miles from Downtown OKC right now, precip about 20 miles away.

Any idea on rainfall rates? Just wondering how much scrambling I'm going to have to do to keep water away from the house (yes, I know, the problem needs to be fixed.)

It has all been an inch or less, though its going to pour hard initially.

Warning out west...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT


* AT 1144 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF ARNETT...MOVING
SOUTH AT 25 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

Probably not. In Stillwater, it's been a fairly tame standard variety heavy thunderstorm, likely with no hail, that didn't merit a warning. Wind gusts probably didn't get over 40 mph. May get at least an inch of rain out of it. If warnings don't get issued, I don't think OKC needs to worry much about it coming in.

It looked like Stillwater was in the bullseye of a bow echo...guess it was more broken than solid.

It has all been an inch or less, though its going to pour hard initially.

How fast is this badboy moving? That gust front made quite the showy entrance here on the NW side.

Generally half an inch over the metro.

West central OK got randomly skipped. Except for extreme western OK along the border where they picked up an inch+.