Two strong, small complexes of storms flying south in KS towards OK.

Slight was expanded last hour for the area north and east of a line from Buffalo to Hobart to Ardmore to Idabel - so pretty much everyone. Main risk will be the damaging winds with the storms coming in from the north. Additional storms firing North and southeast of Tulsa.

...KS/OK/SWRN MO/NWRN-WRN AR...
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SRN MO WWD INTO FAR NERN OK AND THEN WNWWD THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL KS /BETWEEN KICT AND KP28/ TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN SWRN KS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THIS SLIGHT
RISK AREA INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY STRONGLY TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000-4000 J/KG.
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT OVER KS/OK. A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM WRN TX INTO OK IS EXPECTED TO VEER
OVERNIGHT. THESE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...PW NEAR 2 INCH AT 00Z
OUN SOUNDING...AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE ONGOING STORMS
OVER CENTRAL/SRN KS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD SWD INTO THE REST
OF SRN KS AND OK. DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT...AND LARGE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...REMAIN A LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT /WELL AFTER
DARK/.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jul13/23.png

New warning for the main complex up north.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
933 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT


* AT 932 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANTHONY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
TO 80 MPH... LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKWELL...TONKAWA...MEDFORD...POND CREEK...LAMONT...WAKITA...
BRAMAN...DEER CREEK...MANCHESTER...NARDIN...JEFFERSON...RENFROW AND
GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE.

Generally just over an inch fell across all of the OKC metro last night.

More possible tonight and then again tomorrow night.

The rain is trying to make it's way down here... Hope it holds together.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png?1374678801676

So for those keeping tabs, I added up Norman's year to do date so far. Puts us just under 30" for the year...annual average is just over 37". If we are completely average for the rest of the year that would put Norman specifically at 45". That's double last year's rain fall and almost equal to 2012 and 2011 combined. It will also be the highest annual rainfall since 2007 when we had over 56".

The rain is trying to make it's way down here... Hope it holds together.

It didn't... fell apart just as it got here :(

Tulsa and surrounding areas had a lot of damage from the storms last night. Trees and power lines down across the city. PSO is still reporting over 100,000 without power.

..flash flood watch in effect from thursday evening through
friday evening...

The national weather service in norman has issued a

* flash flood watch for portions of central oklahoma and
northern oklahoma...including the following areas...in central
oklahoma...kingfisher...lincoln...logan...oklahoma and payne.
In northern oklahoma...garfield...grant...kay and noble.

* from thursday evening through friday evening

* excessive rainfall is expected to fall over areas where recent
heavy rainfall has already occurred.

* flash flooding can lead to road washouts and unexpected
sinkholes. Rivers...creeks...and streams may rise out of their
banks...flooding nearby residences and businesses. Never attempt
to cross water covered roadways if you cannot see how deep the
water is...turn around dont drown.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Monitor weather forecasts and information. Make plans to get to
higher ground if flooding happens.

This is the projected totals as of now:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif


Looks like Canton Lake will have a nice drink.

Looks like Canton Lake will have a nice drink.

That would be really good. Hearing this is the same low pressure system that gave us all the rain last week...just that its no longer 'retrograde' :-)

Muchos precipitos in Edmond this morning. Plants happy. Me happy.

Near Amarillo and the western PH just have to be ready to float away by now. A few hours now of storms that aren't moving at all.

Near Amarillo and the western PH just have to be ready to float away by now. A few hours now of storms that aren't moving at all.

And all downstream rivers and lakes are saying thank you.

Heads up for those that may wonder...

KINX - nexrad serving NE OK got fried last night from lightning and is down until repairs can be made. No ETA on return.

That system was never "retrograding" in the dynamical meteorological sense. It was just a shortwave in the easterlies (Going east). Uncommon this far north, but it certainly wasn't retrograding. TV meteorologists misuse that word. There's a difference between a shortwave going east and retrograding.

At least all the grass is green which is a nice change for late July/August compared to the last few years.

Slight Risk today west of a line from Newkirk to Guthrie to SW OKC to Marlow to Grandfield. Hail/wind main threats. Flooding threat kicks in later North of I-40 and east of I-35.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...


FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH WRN KS
INTO SWRN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ALLOWING THE UPSTREAM BOUNDARY
LAYER TO RECOVER OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. IN WAKE
OF EARLY STORMS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE EXPECTED ALONG WRN FRINGE OF
MOIST AXIS. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CO WILL
CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY AND ALONG LEE
TROUGH...POSSIBLY AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS REGION WILL EXIST ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS THEY CONTINUE EWD DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

Not really sure what you are disputing here zach but the upper level system that affected our area approximately 10 days ago did indeed "retrograde."


That system was never "retrograding" in the dynamical meteorological sense. It was just a shortwave in the easterlies (Going east). Uncommon this far north, but it certainly wasn't retrograding. TV meteorologists misuse that word. There's a difference between a shortwave going east and retrograding.

At least all the grass is green which is a nice change for late July/August compared to the last few years.

Yea that system was pretty much textbook retrograde low. And you keep saying east, when I think you mean west??

Still on track for massive amounts of rain the next 36 hours.


GFS wants to do another short wave event Monday that dumps buckets over the northern half of OK again.




I would post the July rainfall totals as of now, but it is about to look even more outstanding over the next handful of days.

Looks like I need to dump some fertilizer on my back yard and get some free watering in :)

Project HRRR rainfall totals through 10PM this evening...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2013072512/t5/totp_t5sfc_f15.png

NAM total precip ending 7AM Saturday

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_048.gif

GFS Total Precip through 10PM Friday

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_039.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0444_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE


* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 445
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF HILL CITY KANSAS TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
BORGER TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 443...


DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING IN WRN KS NEAR NNE-SSW BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY ESE THOUGH LATE TNGT AS MODEST
LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AHEAD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE
TRACKING ESE FROM CO/WY. A COMPLEX MIX OF STORM TYPES...INCLUDING A
FEW SUSTAINED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED...WITH A RISK FOR
SVR HAIL...WIND...AND POSSIBLE A TORNADO /THE LATTER MAINLY IN NRN
KS/. THE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SE OR
SSE-MOVING...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS TNGT.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30015.

Storm in Custer County is picking up some strength with small hail and gusty winds. Moving mostly east right now.

Storm is now severe...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT


* AT 1125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR WEATHERFORD...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEATHERFORD...HINTON...THOMAS...HYDRO...BINGER...C ORN...EAKLY...
COLONY...LOOKEBA...GREENFIELD AND BRIDGEPORT.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jul13/25-1.png

Raining buckets out there...

Why are the news stations in wall to wall coverage?

Why are the news stations in wall to wall coverage?

Because there's this strange substance falling from the sky...or at least there was earlier. lol Seriously, we were asking ourselves the same question. Seems like a bit of overkill.

Watching channel 5. This is rediculous, they are dispatching their helicopter to cover this??

SW of metro towards Lawton and such have seen almost 5 inches of rain. Norman has seen 4.

Most of OKC metro is hovering around the 2 inch mark. NW OK towards Canton totally missed out.

Canton totally missed out??? Mesonet shows they probably picked up at least an inch in that area with some surrounding areas getting 2+.

Canton totally missed out??? Mesonet shows they probably picked up at least an inch in that area with some surrounding areas getting 2+.

In order to fill Canton you need rainfall in extreme NW OK, North and west of the lake. Yea they got some, but the projected 5 inch totals for that region would have been great.

In order to fill Canton you need rainfall in extreme NW OK, North and west of the lake. Yea they got some, but the projected 5 inch totals for that region would have been great.

Not only that but it is also somewhat narrow catchment area in Oklahoma on either side of the river compared to the two rivers flanking it. Years ago it would have had a lot more come in the river channel from Texas and New Mexico but between farming diverting water from being caught by the river and heavy depletion of the aquifer beneath the river the amount from upstream is less than half of what it was a few decades ago in normal times and the Texas panhandle has been in a far worse drought than the areas of NW Oklahoma.

Looks like the models missed this one a bit, since NE OK definitely didn't get the brunt of it.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png

Norman has 3.62" left to go...this year...to hit the average annual rainfall.

Looks like the models missed this one a bit, since NE OK definitely didn't get the brunt of it.




I would say GFS has the right idea, but the intensity of the storms/rain died out as they pushed into southern and eastern OK.

You can all go ahead and thank me for all the rain we are having this July.

I broke out the soaker hoses and laid them around my foundation first weekend of July and have only turned them on once! ;)

NW OK towards Canton totally missed out.
That would explain the noticeable absence of the Lake Hefner thread revival...

That would explain the noticeable absence of the Lake Hefner thread revival...

Probably no other town in Oklahoma than Canton gets so tired of being bypassed by nearly all of the heavy rain systems.

You can all go ahead and thank me for all the rain we are having this July.

I broke out the soaker hoses and laid them around my foundation first weekend of July and have only turned them on once! ;)

I was going to blame Gary England for retiring, but you'll do as a scapegoat ;)

I'd say all things considered this is more than most up in NW OK could have hoped for during July with the areas around Canton Lake receiving anywhere between 3 and 6" of rain in the last 30 days.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.720hr.png




In order to fill Canton you need rainfall in extreme NW OK, North and west of the lake. Yea they got some, but the projected 5 inch totals for that region would have been great.

Looks like the Canton Lake watershed got a lot of rain, with possibly more in store over the next few days. This has been a crazy nice summer. Have we topped 100 yet?

Looks like the Canton Lake watershed got a lot of rain, with possibly more in store over the next few days. This has been a crazy nice summer. Have we topped 100 yet?

Would be nice for it to actually reach the lake though. SO far still less than 20% as of today.

http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/images/lakes/CANT.lakepage.gif

GFS wants to move another soaker through OK on Monday and keep off/on rain chances throughout next week. Also keep an eye on the Gulf after that :)



OKC is only about 15 inches away from the all-time precip record that was set 6 years ago.

What is unique about this year, is thus far - a tropical system did not help us get to record rainfall. 2007 was an anomaly mostly due to TS Erin.


Regionally, central OK is around 9-10 inches away from the wettest year ever on record.

Complex of storms coming south from Kansas. Looks like they will have enough steam for at least northern OK. Will see what happens after that.

NAM and GFS both suggesting high amounts of rainfall through the next 48-72 hours, but placement varies.

GFS has the main heavy rain band over much of Central and SE KS and the far northern tier of counties in Oklahoma from Ponca City over to Miami. GFS suggests 3" inches in this area. Rest of the state looks like less than an inch and decreasing the farther south you go.

NAM keeps the higher precip amounts into North Central and NE KS. Generally up to a quarter inch of rain for much of the state except NE sections could see over a half inch.

Southwest OK looks like they will get the least in both solutions.

NAM and GFS both suggesting high amounts of rainfall through the next 48-72 hours, but placement varies.

GFS has the main heavy rain band over much of Central and SE KS and the far northern tier of counties in Oklahoma from Ponca City over to Miami. GFS suggests 3" inches in this area. Rest of the state looks like less than an inch and decreasing the farther south you go.

NAM keeps the higher precip amounts into North Central and NE KS. Generally up to a quarter inch of rain for much of the state except NE sections could see over a half inch.

Southwest OK looks like they will get the least in both solutions.

Ugh, I know I'm going to be in the minority, but it would be nice if we could get a little break here in the metro. There was already a lot of flooding Friday morning in the area. Our lakes are good to go. Let the rest of the state have some for a change.

Ugh, I know I'm going to be in the minority, but it would be nice if we could get a little break here in the metro. There was already a lot of flooding Friday morning in the area. Our lakes are good to go. Let the rest of the state have some for a change.

We are only looking at a quarter to half inch here...as it stands now. So that should be relatively easy to take. :)

We are only looking at a quarter to half inch here...as it stands now. So that should be relatively easy to take. :)

Oh goodness, I hope so. I hate to be selfish about it, but we're still waiting on the yard problem to get fixed and every drop of rain has me on edge. It's not a fun way to live!

I have enjoyed the rain during the work week nice on the weekends weather pattern we have been in...Kinda looks like it might continue for a couple more weeks

Stillwater and Tulsa in part of Oklahoma looking most likely for heavy rain from late Monday to Tuesday. This probably depends on the what's been in Kansas for the last couple of days managing to drop far enough south.

https://sphotos-a-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/942458_600538936633704_1322591271_n.png

Light showers/storms on increase over much of state. Heaviest shower moving into the northern metro within the next 30 minutes.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 pm Tuesday for much of north central and part of northeastern Oklahoma. It does not include Oklahoma or Tulsa counties.

Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Watch
Updated: Mon Jul-29-13 04:05am CDT
Effective: Mon Jul-29-13 04:05am CDT
Expires: Tue Jul-30-13 01:00pm CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Garfield; Grant; Kay; Lincoln; Logan; Noble; Payne

Instructions: Monitor weather forecasts and information. Make plans to get to higher ground if flooding happens.

Message summary: ...very heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible across mainly north central oklahoma this afternoon through midday tuesday...
.the combination of a very moist airmass...unstable air...and lift from a weak mid level disturbance will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly this afternoon through tuesday morning across the area...especially across north central oklahoma where rounds of thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding. Rainfall rates in excess of 3 inches per hour are possible.
...flash flood watch in effect from 1 pm cdt this afternoon through tuesday afternoon...
The national weather service in norman has issued a
* flash flood watch for portions of central oklahoma...northern oklahoma and northwest oklahoma...including the following areas...in central oklahoma...lincoln...logan and payne. In northern oklahoma...garfield...grant...kay and noble. In northwest oklahoma...alfalfa.
* from 1 pm cdt this afternoon through 1 pm tuesday
* excessive rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts is likely this afternoon through tuesday morning from rounds of thunderstorms.
* flash flooding can lead to road washouts and unexpected sinkholes. Rivers...creeks...and streams may rise out of their banks...flooding nearby residences and businesses. Never attempt to cross water covered roadways if you cannot see how deep the water is...turn around don't drown.

4206

Severe Thunder Watch for northern 1/3 of OK:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0450_radar.gif

Ugh, I know I'm going to be in the minority, but it would be nice if we could get a little break here in the metro. There was already a lot of flooding Friday morning in the area. Our lakes are good to go. Let the rest of the state have some for a change.

I, for one, am tired of being an evening meal for certain bloodsucking insects...

I, for one, am tired of being an evening meal for certain bloodsucking insects...

At this point we'll need a freeze to get rid of them. Which means we have 2 months, at least, of dealing with them.

Venture will you start your live chat tonight??

Venture will you start your live chat tonight??

Not tonight. Won't see those until we see a more widespread event impact the metro area or a higher end severe event.

Plus I need some time to get the new site and mobile app put together. :)

Not really sure what you are disputing here zach but the upper level system that affected our area approximately 10 days ago did indeed "retrograde."

The term "retrograde" in the AMS glossary states "In meteorology, the motion of an atmospheric wave or pressure system in a direction opposite to that of the basic flow in which it is embedded."
During this so called "retrograde" system, the atmospheric wave or pressure system moving in the direction to the basic flow which it was embedded. The system was NOT moving in opposite flow. It was on the southern end of the high pressure system which move clockwise. On the southern end it would be moving west. This would be very similar to a Bermuda High which "steers" tropical cyclones to the west. This was a system in the easterlies. We don't call a tropical system moving west retrograde, do you?

If you have a background in atmospheric dynamics, this would be very easy to explain. Look at the vorticity advection term. Vorticity was positive on the west side of the system thus the storm went to the west. The "beta" effect also helped push it along to the west. Nothing unusual about that.

The true meaning of retrograde is that opposite of the flow. This would be where the beta effect was stronger than the vorticity advection thus the system would move against the flow. Basically the "beta" effect would win out in the vorticity equation.

Folks on the weather channel and news meteorologists misused the term but I suppose it is okay to have the nomenclature of a retrograde system "a system moving opposite to what normally happens 99% of the time." In atmospheric dynamics this was not the case though technically. A very interesting system though.