View Full Version : Oklahoma Weather Discussion - July 2013



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Anonymous.
07-15-2013, 08:24 AM
Wrap around working back into C OK this morning.

Models had a really rough time getting this system right, other than saying it would be here.

Huge dryslot over all of N TX and SW OK, this is where models put the heaviest rain. The system has sunk much further south than originally anticipated, but it has also unraveled itself pretty extensively.


So far on rain totals, NC OK is winning with widespread 2-2.5 inches of rain, most of OKC is around 1.5-1.75 inches. We should get to the 2" mark with this morning's convection and pending on redevelopment in SE OK throughout the day it should go up even more.


The system will eventually kind of jog north and northwest over the next 24 hours, pending on getting caught in the dryslot will determine where exactly the rain tracks with the storm. But just keep an eye on radar trends as this is your best bet.

venture
07-15-2013, 08:33 AM
Probably the bad news with this system is all over Western OK, with the worst drought conditions, have only go up to a third of an inch of rain (a few spots higher). The moisture just simply can't make it that far west. A good soaking rain for Central OK though that will fight back the drought conditions that started to work their way back in.

Anonymous.
07-15-2013, 09:27 AM
W OK should get some precip tonight into tomorrow. As the low lifts northwest it should at least put some decent rains through SW OK, possibly pushing them up into NW OK pending on how it pans out.


But yes, it would be great for them to get a nice soaking like us here in C OK.

Bunty
07-15-2013, 11:49 AM
It's interesting to speculate about HAARP to explain unusual weather. However, the fact that the jet stream is will up in Canada helps explain how the upper retrograde low is moving in the direction it is. Fortunately, little in the way of severe weather is associated with it in Oklahoma. Just mainly rainy weather coming down without overly abundant, flash flooding amounts, so far, for a delightful diversion away from the middle of summer.

Jesse Ventura tried to visit the HAARP site in Alaska, but was turned away. So something may be going on we're not supposed to know about. Maybe not even related to weather.

Meteorologist Convinced HAARP-like Projects Are Responsible For Abnormal Weather Pattern Shift Over USA ? TheWeatherSpace.com (http://www.theweatherspace.com/2013/07/15/meteorologist-convinced-haarp-like-projects-are-responsible-for-abnormal-weather-pattern-shift-over-usa/)

http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/071513d.jpg

adaniel
07-15-2013, 12:24 PM
HAARP theories are a favorite for kooks with access to radars and way too much time on their hands.

A retrograde low is not common but not unheard of. Unfortunately for the tin foil hat crowd, this fact is lost on them.

SoonerDave
07-15-2013, 12:35 PM
HAARP theories are a favorite for kooks with access to radars and way too much time on their hands.

A retrograde low is not common but not unheard of. Unfortunately for the tin foil hat crowd, this fact is lost on them.

I made the mistake of visiting that site. That's about 90 seconds of my life I won't get back.

Probably wouldn't have to go far to find links to faked moonlanding sites.

Bunty
07-15-2013, 12:43 PM
Maybe solar activity, or lack of it, helps explain extreme weather and possibly a coming mini-ice age in this short video.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuYTcnN7TQk&feature=youtu.be

venture
07-15-2013, 12:52 PM
Extreme weather? Retrograding lows is nothing new and happens pretty often during stale patterns.

As far as mini ice ages and such...if it means lower summer cooling bills and snow in the winter, bring it on. :-P

Anonymous.
07-15-2013, 02:49 PM
Dry slot filling back in over SC OK. This will likely tighten up and should dump a lot of rain into SW OK tonight. If the low tracks further north it could bring some of that back into the metro and push it towards WC OK which would be great for them.

venture
07-15-2013, 03:32 PM
Looking at the direction of the precip, at least the south Metro should see rain start back up in a couple hours.

SoonerDave
07-15-2013, 04:06 PM
Looking at the direction of the precip, at least the south Metro should see rain start back up in a couple hours.

How far into the South Metro, venture?

Anonymous.
07-15-2013, 04:32 PM
Right now the precip is filling in and still tracking due north with the low moving NNW over SW OK.

This may drag the precip shield over the metro. I would say Norman is easily going to see more rain from this band. North of that is a tough call, because if the low starts moving more west instead of NW, it will pull a dry slot over OKC. But right now it looks like most of OKC will be in the rain again in about 2 hours. Probabilities going from highest SW OKC to lowest NE OKC.

bandnerd
07-15-2013, 04:55 PM
I would be happy to share the rain with SW-W Oklahoma. Have at it.

venture
07-15-2013, 05:16 PM
As Anon pointed out the low is out to the west and we have a few areas of precip.

1) Over NW OK some isolated heavier showers out there, nothing really widespread to help the drought yet. Movement is mostly West.

2) Back from the Southern Metro through South Central OK is moving mostly due north still. It stretches from around Araphao down to Lawton over to near I-35 up to Norman. East of there is lightens up a lot. Heaviest is near Lawton. Movement will start to bend to the WNW and NW as it nears I-40.

3) Behind that area is another batch near and north of Denton that is moving north. This area is increasing in intensity still and should move into the areas currently on the eastern side of the Area #2 and east towards Durant and Ada.

4) Thin line of showers from Newkirk to Tulsa to McAlester to Hugo. Some heavy rain here but it is pretty thin in coverage. This is wrapping around so its the typical north bending to the NW motion with the rain.

5) Area of storms in far SE OK and NE TX. Some reports of some pretty gusty winds with them. These are moving almost do NW.

Anonymous.
07-15-2013, 07:30 PM
Pretty decent fill occurring over most of SC and SE OK. Looks like along I-35 through OKC is wettest heading into this evening.

Norman is just over 3 inches of rain. Most of OKC is at or approaching 2.5 inches at this time.

Bunty
07-16-2013, 02:53 AM
I made the mistake of visiting that site. That's about 90 seconds of my life I won't get back.

Probably wouldn't have to go far to find links to faked moonlanding sites.

HAARP in Alaska has shut down, due to lack of money: HAARP Facility Shuts Down (http://www.arrl.org/news/haarp-facility-shuts-down)

Bunty
07-16-2013, 03:05 AM
Pretty decent fill occurring over most of SC and SE OK. Looks like along I-35 through OKC is wettest heading into this evening.

Norman is just over 3 inches of rain. Most of OKC is at or approaching 2.5 inches at this time.

Stillwater was too far east of I-35 and so got almost 1.5" and evenly spread out, judging from 3 wunderground stations. Tulsa got well under an inch. May not be enough for Tulsa to get back in the totally drought free white zone.

Anonymous.
07-16-2013, 08:24 AM
SW and W OK getting slammed as expected last night and this morning.

venture
07-16-2013, 10:40 AM
Some good rainfall for the SW part of the state. NW missed out in many areas as did the East. Looks like the winner right now appears to be site NE of Duncan with 4.54" of rain. Norman appears to be 2nd with 3.15".

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.120hr.png

venture
07-16-2013, 11:27 AM
Afternoon forecast has the mix of clouds/sun. Could see more rain develop over the west later and also scattered storms from Eastern into Central OK starting by mid to late afternoon with the heating.

venture
07-16-2013, 06:04 PM
Storm over Oklahoma County south into Northern Cleveland picking up some steam. Could go severe and bring some decent hail and wind before it starts to pulse down.

bandnerd
07-16-2013, 06:22 PM
It. Just. Got. Interesting.

Pretty intense thunder. Can't see lightning from my vantage but I'm pretty sure it's comin' right fer us. Good thing we have a pool pump in the backyard to divert water.

venture
07-16-2013, 06:28 PM
Now severe...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
624 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 622 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR NICHOLS HILLS...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETHANY...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES AND NICHOLS HILLS.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/jul13/16.png

OSUMom
07-16-2013, 06:37 PM
It's pretty much passed me at this point but some wild wind with that storm.

OKCisOK4me
07-16-2013, 07:21 PM
The clouds were a swirlin' when it was coming in!

bandnerd
07-16-2013, 07:29 PM
Well, that was nuts. So much water...

venture
07-16-2013, 07:35 PM
Welcome to Florida.

Jim Kyle
07-16-2013, 08:01 PM
I understand that power is out around Britton and MacArthur, and there's quite a bit of tree damage in the Silver Lake area on Ritter Road and on Harbor Drive...

bradh
07-16-2013, 08:21 PM
That storm went directly over us in Camden Place. I thought my bald cypress was gonna split, it was swirling like crazy. Some pretty jagged hail did damage to siding, screens and garage doors around the hood.

Maybe this time I'll actually put in a claim for a new roof, there is no way I escaped damage from this one.

bandnerd
07-16-2013, 08:46 PM
That storm went directly over us in Camden Place. I thought my bald cypress was gonna split, it was swirling like crazy. Some pretty jagged hail did damage to siding, screens and garage doors around the hood.

Maybe this time I'll actually put in a claim for a new roof, there is no way I escaped damage from this one.

We live near the area, already have a claim open for the roof, siding, window screens, gutters, and garage doors, just haven't gotten it done yet because we were waiting for the storm season to end. Most of the people in our neighborhood already got their roofs done. That was some jagged hail, though, for sure.

It really was insane when it started. I'm glad we have power so we can run pumps. I watched someone's yard service sign get yanked out of the ground. I looked down the street but couldn't see it anywhere.

bradh
07-16-2013, 08:53 PM
In 4.5 years I've held off putting a claim in for the roof. I used to be an adjuster in PHX and hail damage doesn't really affect your roof too much, so I was just waiting until it was really bad.

Tydude
07-16-2013, 09:39 PM
KWTV,FOX 25 and CW34 is without power right now at the station

jn1780
07-16-2013, 09:53 PM
Not receiving data from about 90% of the mesonet stations. Obviously, its probably an issue on the receiving end.

Bunty
07-16-2013, 10:10 PM
This low just doesn't want to leave in peace. It's amazing how the Oklahoma City area never seems to be fortunate enough to get bypassed by the worst parts of these storm systems. It will be interesting to see what else happens on Wednesday, so far, with a 20% chance of precip.

OKCisOK4me
07-16-2013, 10:13 PM
KWTV,FOX 25 and CW34 is without power right now at the station

It was about that time that I was flipping through stations and Fox didn't have a signal. Also, the lights were flickering and I was like, "nooooo...don't do that".

Anonymous.
07-16-2013, 10:21 PM
Nearly 4 inches being reported on east sides of OKC, 3 to 3.5 inches over the rest of metro. This is also data that is delayed, so these numbers will increase slightly.


The low is currently located all the way over in N New Mexico. Really, it has been a perfect storm for the drought. Steady rains that are spaced out in timing to allow maximum soaking with very minor run off.


SW and W OK will likely see totals continue to go up as the low slides further and further west and eventually southwest.

venture
07-17-2013, 02:28 AM
Spotty storms popping up again. Brief heavy rain is about the most of it. Heavy rain lasted about 10 minutes here in Norman.

venture
07-17-2013, 12:29 PM
Afternoon storms starting to pop up over South central into SE OK. Heavy rain is the main threat with these. Movement is NE at around 30 mph.

Anonymous.
07-17-2013, 02:07 PM
No sillyhead, movement is NW! lol

But yea, looks like flare up/down storms much like yesterday afternoon's activity working their way back into the metro later this afternoon.

venture
07-17-2013, 03:21 PM
No sillyhead, movement is NW! lol

But yea, looks like flare up/down storms much like yesterday afternoon's activity working their way back into the metro later this afternoon.

Sigh. LOL Go 11.5 months out of the year saying NE and all of a sudden I'm expected to relay accurate information and adjust for some crazy retrograding low. Sheesh. :)

Dustin
07-17-2013, 03:29 PM
N May Ave & NW 39th St got 7 inches of rain. I have a friend who lives right there.

Jesseda
07-17-2013, 04:09 PM
So how much rain did we get in the moore area these past few days?

venture
07-17-2013, 06:37 PM
So how much rain did we get in the moore area these past few days?

Here you go...the 4.22" is Norman...so close to that.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.168hr.png

soonerguru
07-17-2013, 07:06 PM
Here you go...the 4.22" is Norman...so close to that.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.168hr.png

This is an awesome graphic. Even Altus and Boise City got more than an inch.

John1744
07-17-2013, 10:26 PM
Probably slightly off topic but wasn't sure where else it should go, what's the story with KFOR's supposed fancy new radar they unveiled today?

Bunty
07-18-2013, 11:33 AM
Probably slightly off topic but wasn't sure where else it should go, what's the story with KFOR's supposed fancy new radar they unveiled today?
Just part of KFOR's long tradition of being there first with the most advanced weather related technology. I don't know what the experts think, but it makes me keep wanting to tune to KFOR for the weather.

KFOR has started imitating KWTV for showing a state board with many more temps from towns. That is also a good move. Hopefully, though, Mike Morgan has learned not to say "Drive south" again after seeing a F5 tornado on radar.

Of Sound Mind
07-18-2013, 01:43 PM
Just part of KFOR's long tradition of being there first with the most advanced weather related technology
The most advanced technology or the latest gimmick guised to look like "the most advanced technology"... I'm leaning toward the latter ...

Bunty
07-18-2013, 05:29 PM
For the latest drought monitor, Stillwater barely managed to get back into the drought free white zone, while things are deteriorating in northeast and far southeast Oklahoma. More of western Oklahoma is no longer in the worst category.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/ok_dm.png

bandnerd
07-18-2013, 06:10 PM
For the latest drought monitor, Stillwater barely managed to get back into the drought free white zone, while things are deteriorating in northeast and far southeast Oklahoma. More of western Oklahoma is no longer in the worst category.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/ok_dm.png

Interesting. If I remember correctly, this time last year, the far eastern sides of the state, especially southeastern parts, were all in the white and getting plenty of rain.

venture
07-18-2013, 07:13 PM
Just part of KFOR's long tradition of being there first with the most advanced weather related technology. I don't know what the experts think, but it makes me keep wanting to tune to KFOR for the weather.

KFOR has started imitating KWTV for showing a state board with many more temps from towns. That is also a good move. Hopefully, though, Mike Morgan has learned not to say "Drive south" again after seeing a F5 tornado on radar.

What exactly were they first at getting? Long tradition? Morgan is that you? LOL

So far the only thing I can find is that they finally replaced their old system and got a new smart board like KWTV. Didn't see anything online about a new radar system yet, but let's be honest - you can only do so much with the radar data. GRLevel2 Analyst Edition is probably going to be about as advanced as you can get when it comes to manipulating and viewing Level 2 (high resolution) radar data. I believe KWTV has the market rights to the program so no one else can use it on air...yet I would assume any serious weather nut is going to have it.

venture
07-19-2013, 07:31 PM
The Lake Dirtybird levels are great to see and Norman really needed it badly. Canton is still suffering badly and so are the lakes in Southern and Western OK.

http://www.okctalk.com/attachments/current-events-open-topic/4159d1374280267-oklahoma-weather-discussion-july-2013-image5.jpg

Bunty
07-21-2013, 07:28 PM
Much of northeastern Oklahoma got some pretty awesome rainfall totals Saturday night. It surely has put a big dent in their drought situation trying to build back up.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/721rainamounts.png

Snowman
07-22-2013, 12:36 AM
Interesting. If I remember correctly, this time last year, the far eastern sides of the state, especially southeastern parts, were all in the white and getting plenty of rain.

I think that was a relatively short period so may have just missed whatever reference times are listed, plus their average rainfall is near double ours so they can still get more rain than us and be in a drought

venture
07-22-2013, 03:55 PM
GFS outlook through the first week of August...

Temps: Brief cool down this weekend, but it ends fast. Temps back to the mid 90s through the end of the period.

Precip: Some severe today over eastern OK. Chance tomorrow over much of the state and again early saturday. More widespread Sunday, but light. Moves NE on Monday. Dry again until maybe August 6th or 7th.

venture
07-22-2013, 06:34 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0432_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA


* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 620 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
LIBERAL KANSAS TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429...WW 430...WW 431...


DISCUSSION...A LARGE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM SOUTHWEST OF ICT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OK DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORMING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS THAT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33020.

Anonymous.
07-23-2013, 11:57 AM
Models pointing more towards another heavy rainfall event over N, C, and E OK.

Looks like complex of storms moving out of KS into northern OK and sweeping across the northern 2/3 of OK during Wednesday evening into Thursday.

Then the same thing happens again Friday only perhaps pushed a little further east and focusing more on NE OK.


This image will update as new data is available, but as of now it is putting a solid 2-3 inches over much of OK:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

Praedura
07-23-2013, 12:18 PM
...This image will update as new data is available, but as of now it is putting a solid 2-3 inches over much of OK:


Love it! Bring it on! :Smiley173

This wetter summer season is wonderful. So nice to go out in mid and late July and see such lush greenery everywhere (as opposed to dried up brownery and yellowery).

kelroy55
07-23-2013, 01:06 PM
Send it down to DFW

CuatrodeMayo
07-23-2013, 01:52 PM
Ha. Oklahoma doesn't HAVE to give ANY water to Texas.

Oops, wrong thread.

Bunty
07-23-2013, 05:27 PM
Severe thunderstorm watch in Oklahoma until 1 am out. It includes most of the northeastern half of Oklahoma. It doesn't include Oklahoma County, but does include Logan and Lincoln Counties.

Updated: Tue Jul-23-13 05:15pm CDT
Effective: Tue Jul-23-13 05:15pm CDT
Expires: Wed Jul-24-13 01:00am CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met

Areas affected: Adair; Alfalfa; Cherokee; Craig; Creek; Delaware; Garfield; Grant; Haskell; Kay; Lincoln; Logan; Major; Mayes; McIntosh; Muskogee; Noble; Nowata; Okfuskee; Okmulgee; Osage; Ottawa; Pawnee; Payne; Rogers; Sequoyah; Tulsa; Wagoner; Washington; Woods

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 438 is in effect until 100 am cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are adair alfalfa cherokee craig creek delaware garfield grant haskell kay lincoln logan major mayes mcintosh muskogee noble nowata okfuskee okmulgee osage ottawa pawnee payne rogers sequoyah tulsa wagoner washington woods